{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Sevilla", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261012", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0866, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Sevilla", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2425, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0866 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1112 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0812 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0741 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0695 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0486, "0-1": 0.0741, "0-2": 0.0588, "0-3": 0.0308, "0-4": 0.0121, "0-5": 0.0038, "0-6": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0695, "1-1": 0.1112, "1-2": 0.0866, "1-3": 0.0453, "1-4": 0.0178, "1-5": 0.0056, "1-6": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0518, "2-1": 0.0812, "2-2": 0.0637, "2-3": 0.0333, "2-4": 0.0131, "2-5": 0.0041, "2-6": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0254, "3-1": 0.0399, "3-2": 0.0313, "3-3": 0.0164, "3-4": 0.0064, "3-5": 0.002, "3-6": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0093, "4-1": 0.0147, "4-2": 0.0115, "4-3": 0.006, "4-4": 0.0024, "4-5": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0028, "5-1": 0.0043, "5-2": 0.0034, "5-3": 0.0018, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0007, "6-1": 0.0011, "6-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3575, "draw": 0.2425, "away_win": 0.3999 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5859, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4141, "btts_yes": 0.6109, "btts_no": 0.3891, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2083, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2295 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.79, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.83, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 7.05 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Levante vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Levante 2W-1D-7L vs Sevilla over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Iván Romero, Miguel Sierra, Robbie Ure", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Youssouf Fofana). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.472, "away_lambda": 1.569, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 7, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9643, "away_multiplier": 1.0357 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1112, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3575, "draw": 0.2425, "away_win": 0.3999 }, "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3999, "fair_spread": -0.097, "fair_total": 3.041, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.472, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.569, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5859, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6109, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2083, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2295, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iván Romero (Levante)", "estimate": 0.4025, "probability": 0.3314, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Robbie Ure (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.2739, "probability": 0.2396, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1611, "probability": 0.1488, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gabriel Suazo (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.1914, "probability": 0.1742, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.041, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 709, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.5, "possession_home_pct": 47.6, "possession_away_pct": 52.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3999, "script": "Sevilla is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.10 goals and fair total 3.04.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Levante must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sevilla lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Levante chance creation leans on Iván Romero against Gabriel Suazo in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Iván Romero; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov, Hugo Sotelo.", "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Miguel Sierra, Robbie Ure; bench watchlist: Lucas Stassin, Akor Adams, Oso.", "Assist usage should flow through Jon Ander Olasagasti, Félix Correia; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sevilla tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.52 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Levante is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sevilla.", "Levante wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Levante": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Thiago Fernández": { "player_id": 1201412, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 175, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1232, "goal_rate": 0.1391, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.117, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8055, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 9.4951, "dispossessed": 1.6246, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0758, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9237, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1104, "finishing_factor": 1.2335, "creation_factor": 0.9966, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1433, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2418, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "expected_assists": 0.2341, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0479, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Oviedo", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0117, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Oviedo", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"team": "Real Oviedo", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0771, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083252, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Oviedo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083282, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Oviedo", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0617, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3756, "combined_rank_score": 1748.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2919.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8055, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Thiago Fernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ezequiel Piovi", "ranking": 3751 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pflücke", "ranking": 3752 }, { "player_name": "Junya Ito", "ranking": 3753 }, { "player_name": "Mario Martín", "ranking": 3754 }, { "player_name": "Doğucan Haspolat", "ranking": 3755 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jarne Steuckers", "ranking": 3757 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Gomes", "ranking": 3758 }, { "player_name": "Myrto Uzuni", "ranking": 3759 }, { "player_name": "Joel Ordoñez", "ranking": 3760 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Lecomte", "ranking": 3761 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 20, "data_confidence": 0.766, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9972, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Levante", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 148.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.22, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 20 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Levante, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1121, "goals": 0.1532, "goal_rate": 0.1532, "shots_on_target": 0.4338, "total_shots": 1.2606, "expected_assists": 0.0984, "key_pass": 0.9399, "rating": 6.8055, "minutes": 70.8, "total_pass": 18.4428, "accurate_pass": 14.6659, "duels_won": 3.6093, "total_long_balls": 1.3625, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6694, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3072, "crosses_total": 1.7596, "crosses_accurate": 0.3531, "touches": 32.79, "possession_lost": 9.5218, 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0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0665 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0247 } ], "others": -0.0832, "total": 0.6805, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.281191 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07751 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.038586 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032892 } ], "others_margin": -0.115459 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.911862850189209, "model_output": 6.9119, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0707 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.9119, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.07648 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.070675 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.017491 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016981 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015587 } ], "others_margin": -0.014996 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3601, "goals": 0.3585, "goal_rate": 0.3585, "shots_on_target": 0.875, "total_shots": 2.1996, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 0.6802, "rating": 6.9119, "minutes": 72.62, "total_pass": 15.3312, "accurate_pass": 11.2636, "duels_won": 5.1109, "total_long_balls": 0.6084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4133, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.508, "crosses_total": 0.5163, "crosses_accurate": 0.0403, "touches": 30.7907, "possession_lost": 10.2459, "dispossessed": 1.3155, "duels_lost": 5.9469, "aerial_lost": 1.7257, "total_contest": 2.0592, "won_contest": 0.9756, "ball_recovery": 2.6649, "challenges_lost": 0.9168, "fouls": 1.0446, "fouls_drawn": 1.8472, "assists": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "interceptions": 0.2289, 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} ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3601, "goals": 0.354, "goal_rate": 0.354, "shots_on_target": 0.8722, "total_shots": 2.2088, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 0.6802, "rating": 6.9119, "minutes": 72.62, "total_pass": 15.3312, "accurate_pass": 11.2636, "duels_won": 5.1109, "total_long_balls": 0.6084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4133, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.508, "crosses_total": 0.5139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0403, "touches": 30.7907, "possession_lost": 10.2459, "dispossessed": 1.3155, "duels_lost": 5.9469, "aerial_lost": 1.7257, "total_contest": 2.0592, "won_contest": 0.9756, "ball_recovery": 2.6649, "challenges_lost": 0.9168, "fouls": 1.0436, "fouls_drawn": 1.8402, "assists": 0.0057, "assist_rate": 0.0057, "interceptions": 0.226, "tackles_won": 0.4248, "tackles": 1.2046, "clearances": 0.3586, "blocks": 0.0068, "big_chances_created": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1979 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0239 } ], "others": -0.0231, "total": 0.6526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.257817 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.092937 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.08335 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.042526 }, { "name": 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0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.0953, "xgot": 0.1944, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.8378 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4781, "expected_assists": 0.1351, "assists": 0.154, "assist_rate": 0.154, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "goals": 0.1754, "goal_rate": 0.1754, "shots_on_target": 0.4721, "total_shots": 1.3099, "rating": 6.8596, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0886 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0472 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": 0.0088, "total": 0.201, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.319228 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.223764 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132267 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067471 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043696 } ], "others_margin": 0.044483 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7527687549591064, "model_output": 0.7528, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { 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"predicted": 6.720572471618652, "model_output": 6.7206, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0219 } ], "others": -0.0232, "total": 6.7206, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050429 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028396 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.027905 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.021967 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021889 } ], "others_margin": -0.02313 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9955, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0985, "expected_assists": 0.0938, "assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0873, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.046, "goal_rate": 0.046, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "total_shots": 0.7494, "rating": 6.7206, "minutes": 78.81, "total_pass": 21.1528, "accurate_pass": 18.102, "duels_won": 1.839, "total_long_balls": 0.1918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4877, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7309, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.371, "crosses_total": 2.7792, "crosses_accurate": 0.6831, "touches": 31.9664, "possession_lost": 7.6844, "dispossessed": 0.8037, "duels_lost": 4.5339, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7638, "interceptions": 0.7966, "tackles_won": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.5266, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.578, "won_contest": 0.3124, "challenges_lost": 1.5266, "fouls": 1.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3124, "big_chances_created": 0.1918, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 8.1979, "total_progression": 35.9073, "progressive_carries": 1.1137, "shots_off_target": 0.5492 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9955, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0985, "expected_assists": 0.0938, "assists": 0.1008, "assist_rate": 0.1008, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0613, "shots_on_target": 0.2085, "total_shots": 0.734, "rating": 6.7206, "minutes": 78.81, "total_pass": 21.1528, "accurate_pass": 18.102, "duels_won": 1.839, "total_long_balls": 0.1918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1304 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.3964, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130426 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056922 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.026526 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.011893 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.007548 } ], "others_margin": -0.009474 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.744202136993408, "model_output": 6.7442, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": 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appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Levante, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0666, "tackles": 1.1829, "tackles_won": 0.791, "clearances": 5.1332, "aerial_won": 1.8755, "total_shots": 0.3041, "rating": 6.7972, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.5148, "accurate_pass": 42.095, "duels_won": 3.9292, "total_long_balls": 4.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 35.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0654, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7349, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0296, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.8162, "possession_lost": 3.6606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2925, "aerial_lost": 0.8469, "total_contest": 0.2548, "won_contest": 0.2548, "ball_recovery": 2.9757, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4455, "fouls_drawn": 0.7775, "blocks": 0.3219, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2047, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9698, "total_progression": 31.8579, "progressive_carries": 0.1069, "key_pass": 0.4094, "shots_off_target": 0.3041 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-12T10:04:30.888503+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 623, "rows": 20487 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.5766, "aerialWon": 1.5648, "totalClearance_p90": 4.783, "totalTackle": 1.4801, "totalPass": 45.5148 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0666475296020508, "model_output": 1.0666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1007 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"totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8578, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1135 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0246 } ], "others": -0.0199, "total": 0.791, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124318 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.056619 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.049185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044673 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.029842 } ], "others_margin": -0.025056 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.133179664611816, "model_output": 5.1332, "scale": "count per match", 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"target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8754972219467163, "model_output": 1.8755, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1566 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.072 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0516 } ], "others": 0.1384, "total": 1.8755, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107639 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.067831 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044062 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041102 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.029249 } ], "others_margin": 0.076561 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.30407172441482544, "model_output": 0.3041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.118 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0596, "total": 0.3041, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11799 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.044582 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018472 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.008639 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008062 } ], "others_margin": -0.059666 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.79715633392334, "model_output": 6.7972, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0173, "total": 6.7972, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01986 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012658 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01131 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010272 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.00825 } ], "others_margin": 0.017318 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0568, "tackles": 1.172, "tackles_won": 0.7837, "clearances": 5.086, "aerial_won": 1.8582, "total_shots": 0.3013, "rating": 6.7972, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4414, "fouls_drawn": 0.7703, "blocks": 0.3189, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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{ "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7703, "after": 0.762 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0568, "after": 1.0502 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0502, "tackles": 1.172, "tackles_won": 0.8305, "clearances": 5.086, "aerial_won": 1.8582, "total_shots": 0.3019, "rating": 6.7972, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, 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"margin": -0.188078 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129658 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.083905 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.065313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064979 } ], "others_margin": -0.035385 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1771208047866821, "model_output": 1.1771, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4644 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0779 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": 0.0936, "total": 1.1771, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.464423 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.077905 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.062321 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022734 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.016105 } ], "others_margin": 0.093523 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.971228122711182, "model_output": 6.9712, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": 0.043, "total": 6.9712, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.044052 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.030329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024036 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023913 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.019919 } ], "others_margin": 0.04301 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2248, "tackles": 1.4616, "tackles_won": 0.8438, "clearances": 5.3404, "aerial_won": 1.3619, "total_shots": 1.175, "rating": 6.9712, "minutes": 87.1, "total_pass": 49.4986, "accurate_pass": 41.0959, "duels_won": 3.8097, "total_long_balls": 12.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1449, "total_own_half_passes": 29.2354, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.7813, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3146, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4003, "touches": 67.2143, "possession_lost": 11.7542, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 2.5466, "aerial_lost": 0.6449, "total_contest": 0.5034, "won_contest": 0.2726, "ball_recovery": 3.5446, "challenges_lost": 0.4642, "fouls": 1.0569, "fouls_drawn": 1.3293, "blocks": 0.236, "goals": 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.4167, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055997 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042553 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.0232 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.014741 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007662 } ], "others_margin": -0.023498 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62672233581543, "model_output": 6.6267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.055, "total": 6.6267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033679 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.025954 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015621 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015509 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.013453 } ], "others_margin": -0.055031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7555, "tackles": 1.3605, "tackles_won": 0.8669, "clearances": 2.8217, "aerial_won": 0.7756, "total_shots": 0.4158, "rating": 6.6267, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 31.0614, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 3.069, "total_long_balls": 4.8977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3508, "total_own_half_passes": 14.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9691, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7987, "crosses_total": 2.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.5842, "touches": 49.0348, "possession_lost": 10.0369, "dispossessed": 0.1106, "duels_lost": 2.7556, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "total_contest": 0.5955, "won_contest": 0.3053, "ball_recovery": 2.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.702, "fouls": 0.8612, "fouls_drawn": 0.6929, "blocks": 0.4417, "goals": 0.0003, 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0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 7.006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.00281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.018523 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.01782 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.010258 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.009643 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009405 } ], "others_margin": -0.007576 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.8578, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4266 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0428, "total": 0.3339, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.68786 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041622 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.033776 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.030476 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.029231 } ], "others_margin": -0.120494 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.207798957824707, "model_output": 2.2078, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0265 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2904 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1041 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0918 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0829 } ], "others": 0.4075, "total": 2.2078, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.235809, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.888938 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.186726 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.059252 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.052052 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047148 } ], "others_margin": 0.20405 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7923868298530579, "model_output": 0.7924, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.806 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1609 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0379 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0334, "total": 0.7924, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.87879 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.24776 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.059696 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.053411 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040733 } ], "others_margin": 0.042949 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22150351107120514, "model_output": 0.2215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2055 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.2215, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205487 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.047957 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.047353 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022613 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01506 } ], "others_margin": -0.053486 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7426347732543945, "model_output": 6.7426, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 6.7426, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026385 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013989 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011925 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010783 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007693 } ], "others_margin": 0.005874 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4239, "tackles": 0.5333, "tackles_won": 0.3334, "clearances": 2.2045, "aerial_won": 0.7912, "total_shots": 0.2212, "rating": 6.7426, "minutes": 17.0, "total_pass": 43.6328, "accurate_pass": 38.0118, "duels_won": 3.7172, "total_long_balls": 4.7791, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3235, "total_own_half_passes": 27.6221, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.139, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8728, "crosses_total": 0.1903, "crosses_accurate": 0.093, "touches": 55.8973, "possession_lost": 6.9858, "dispossessed": 0.2883, "duels_lost": 2.7534, "aerial_lost": 1.3482, "total_contest": 0.239, "won_contest": 0.1303, "ball_recovery": 3.1762, "challenges_lost": 0.3026, "fouls": 0.7653, "fouls_drawn": 0.8767, "blocks": 0.4962, "goals": 0.0, 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0.060948 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.029998 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.022442 } ], "others_margin": 0.0106 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6659762263298035, "model_output": 0.666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4695 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0669, "total": 0.666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.46947 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049811 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.027394 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.024104 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.022714 } ], "others_margin": 0.06687 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708918571472168, "model_output": 6.7089, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.083 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0031, "total": 6.7089, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083048 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050088 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028044 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01198 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010702 } ], "others_margin": -0.00294 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6374, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "assists": 0.0814, "assist_rate": 0.0814, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "goals": 0.0537, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.6682, "rating": 6.7089, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 8.4201, "accurate_pass": 6.7229, "duels_won": 1.3996, "total_long_balls": 0.7296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5081, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6365, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0863, "crosses_total": 1.6886, "crosses_accurate": 0.2961, "touches": 16.2224, "possession_lost": 5.708, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.4851, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2139, "tackles": 0.3122, "clearances": 0.16, 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0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0572, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1882, "total_shots": 0.7144, "rating": 6.7089, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 6.7209, "total_progression": 19.3239, "progressive_carries": 0.9371, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037414 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034423 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026699 } ], "others_margin": -0.086905 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.726712226867676, "model_output": 6.7267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 6.7267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3572, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "assists": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "expected_goals": 0.0146, "goals": 0.0263, "goal_rate": 0.0263, "shots_on_target": 0.0637, "total_shots": 0.2111, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 17.5, "total_pass": 11.9689, "accurate_pass": 10.0637, "duels_won": 1.0409, "total_long_balls": 1.22, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2812, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1783, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5401, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7905, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0831, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7291, "possession_lost": 2.5957, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.4276, "aerial_won": 0.1149, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.8157, "tackles_won": 0.2703, "tackles": 0.6556, "clearances": 0.4, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.06, "projection_minutes": 17.5, "minutes_scale": 1.2606, "appearance_probability": 0.503 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4503, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.0803, "total_shots": 0.2661, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.2345, xG scale 1.1924, xA scale 1.1924, team xA 0.97 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4503, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0803, "total_shots": 0.2661, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2164, "creation_factor": 1.1756 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2345, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8099, "team_expected_assists": 0.9657, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6561, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1924, "xa_scale": 1.1924, "opponent_lambda": 1.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.503 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0411, "after": 0.049 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4503, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0803, "total_shots": 0.2661, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2164, "creation_factor": 1.1756, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3677, "fifa_rank": 2905.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4503, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0803, "total_shots": 0.2661, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2164, "creation_factor": 1.1756, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0109, "scorer_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 1.5741, "weight_share": 0.0085, "finishing_factor": 1.2164, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3966, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3966, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3668 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4503, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0803, "total_shots": 0.2661, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0241, "finishing_factor": 1.2164, "creation_factor": 1.1756, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0241, "provider_weight": 0.029, "squad_weight_total": 0.9556, "weight_share": 0.0303, "creation_factor": 1.1756, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1775, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1775, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1172, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Etta Eyong": { "player_id": 1393673, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 15600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.157, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 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"accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083676, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0568, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083568, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Osasuna", 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.503 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1128 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0326 } ], "others": -0.0479, "total": 0.5923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503039 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112848 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044723 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039502 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.032643 } ], "others_margin": -0.047749 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.012298854067921638, "model_output": 0.0123, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0123, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.41387 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.304291 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.223881 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.120739 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.107661 } ], "others_margin": -0.47661 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.20249727368354797, "model_output": 0.2025, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2949 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0601, "total": 0.2025, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.576839 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.119406 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.109456 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069898 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065329 } ], "others_margin": -0.259724 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.590107440948486, "model_output": 6.5901, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0713 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0701, "total": 6.5901, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071313 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018442 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015557 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013946 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01202 } ], "others_margin": -0.070113 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "shots_on_target": 0.2712, "total_shots": 0.5921, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.2024, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 17.0, "total_pass": 5.5929, "accurate_pass": 3.2963, "duels_won": 0.9186, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7262, "possession_lost": 6.1333, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 3.2152, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.378, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4594, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4594, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.378, "total_progression": 5.9619, "progressive_carries": 0.4594, "shots_off_target": 0.3209 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1296, "goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "shots_on_target": 0.4068, "total_shots": 0.8882, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4814, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 17.0, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1296, "goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "shots_on_target": 0.4068, "total_shots": 0.8882, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4814, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.2345, xG scale 1.1924, xA scale 1.1924, team xA 0.97 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4068, "total_shots": 0.8882, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4814, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2345, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8099, "team_expected_assists": 0.9657, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6561, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1924, "xa_scale": 1.1924, "opponent_lambda": 1.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1296, "after": 0.1545 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4068, "total_shots": 0.8882, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4814, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4068, "total_shots": 0.8882, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4814, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0817, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0817, "scorer_weight": 0.0735, "squad_weight_total": 1.5741, "weight_share": 0.0467, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3966, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3966, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3668 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4068, "total_shots": 0.8882, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, 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} ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0851, "goals": 0.1047, "goal_rate": 0.1047, "shots_on_target": 0.3284, "total_shots": 0.8138, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.327, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 3.5122, "accurate_pass": 2.2405, "duels_won": 1.387, "total_long_balls": 0.1322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.856, "crosses_total": 0.2285, "crosses_accurate": 0.159, "touches": 8.1664, "possession_lost": 3.4817, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 2.5519, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.3116, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 0.7173, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.3331, "assists": 0.1815, "assist_rate": 0.1815, "interceptions": 0.1429, "tackles_won": 0.01, "tackles": 0.2026, "clearances": 0.0695, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1837, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 1.3521, "total_progression": 3.1728, "progressive_carries": 0.0266, "shots_off_target": 0.4854 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1276, "goals": 0.157, "goal_rate": 0.157, "shots_on_target": 0.4926, "total_shots": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1276, "goals": 0.157, "goal_rate": 0.157, "shots_on_target": 0.4926, "total_shots": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.2345, xG scale 1.1924, xA scale 1.1924, team xA 0.97 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.157, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4926, "total_shots": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.3162, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1655, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2345, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8099, "team_expected_assists": 0.9657, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6561, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1924, "xa_scale": 1.1924, "opponent_lambda": 1.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1276, "after": 0.1521 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0675, "after": 0.0805 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.157, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4926, "total_shots": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.3162, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1655, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.157, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4926, "total_shots": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.3162, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0825, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1655, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0825, "scorer_weight": 0.1037, "squad_weight_total": 1.5741, "weight_share": 0.0659, "finishing_factor": 1.1655, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3966, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3966, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3668 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.157, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4926, "total_shots": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.3162, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0825, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0452, "finishing_factor": 1.1655, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0452, "provider_weight": 0.0589, "squad_weight_total": 0.9556, "weight_share": 0.0616, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1775, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1775, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1172, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5901, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.289, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0817, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.084, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5795, "combined_rank_score": 4058.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": 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0.06381615996360779, "model_output": 0.0638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.153 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0172, "total": 0.0638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.638691 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.371387 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.226769 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089772 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.059174 } ], "others_margin": -0.239082 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.21155065298080444, "model_output": 0.2116, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2677 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0267 } ], "others": -0.0869, "total": 0.2116, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.325273 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.267717 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037414 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034423 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026699 } ], "others_margin": -0.086905 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.726712226867676, "model_output": 6.7267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 6.7267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089634 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.00728 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006128 } ], "others_margin": 0.004294 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2164, "creation_factor": 1.1756 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2345, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8099, "team_expected_assists": 0.9657, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6561, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1924, "xa_scale": 1.1924, "opponent_lambda": 1.569, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.503 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0411, "after": 0.049 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4503, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0803, "total_shots": 0.2661, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, 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"contribution": 0.1404 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0448 } ], "others": -0.1223, "total": 1.1173, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.147046 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140443 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.052714 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045712 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044833 } ], "others_margin": -0.122347 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.765761852264404, "model_output": 6.7658, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0719, "total": 6.7658, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.056075 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04394 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.031798 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.020957 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014118 } ], "others_margin": -0.071772 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0287, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "assists": 0.0513, "assist_rate": 0.0513, "expected_goals": 0.0966, "goals": 0.1004, "goal_rate": 0.1004, "shots_on_target": 0.3827, "total_shots": 1.1494, "rating": 6.7658, "minutes": 82.63, "total_pass": 29.3524, "accurate_pass": 24.047, "duels_won": 6.2921, "total_long_balls": 3.0261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8864, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.9125, "possession_lost": 10.1001, "dispossessed": 0.3999, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_won": 1.0887, "aerial_lost": 0.9777, "interceptions": 0.9777, "tackles_won": 1.3686, "tackles": 3.0861, "clearances": 0.3399, "total_contest": 4.2258, "won_contest": 1.8285, "challenges_lost": 0.289, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.289, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3142, "ball_carries": 9.8941, "total_progression": 38.9783, "progressive_carries": 0.9177, "shots_off_target": 0.7667 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 25000000, "quality_factor": 0.6773, "boost_factor": 1.0287, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "assists": 0.0513, "assist_rate": 0.0513, "expected_goals": 0.0966, "goals": 0.1004, "goal_rate": 0.1004, "shots_on_target": 0.3827, "total_shots": 1.1494, "rating": 6.7658, "minutes": 82.63, "total_pass": 29.3524, "accurate_pass": 24.047, "duels_won": 6.2921, "total_long_balls": 3.0261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8864, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.9125, "possession_lost": 10.1001, "dispossessed": 0.3999, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_won": 1.0887, "aerial_lost": 0.9777, "interceptions": 0.9777, "tackles_won": 1.3686, "tackles": 3.0861, "clearances": 0.3399, "total_contest": 4.2258, "won_contest": 1.8285, "challenges_lost": 0.289, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.289, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3142, "ball_carries": 9.8941, "total_progression": 38.9783, "progressive_carries": 0.9177, "shots_off_target": 0.7667 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "assists": 0.0513, "assist_rate": 0.0513, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.124, "shots_on_target": 0.4727, "total_shots": 1.4199, "rating": 6.7658, "minutes": 82.63, "total_pass": 29.3524, "accurate_pass": 24.047, "duels_won": 6.2921, "total_long_balls": 3.0261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8864, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.9125, "possession_lost": 10.1001, "dispossessed": 0.3999, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9777, "interceptions": 0.9777, "tackles_won": 1.3686, "tackles": 3.0861, "clearances": 0.3399, "total_contest": 4.2258, "won_contest": 1.8285, "challenges_lost": 0.289, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.289, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3881, "ball_carries": 9.8941, "total_progression": 38.9783, "progressive_carries": 0.9177, "shots_off_target": 0.9471, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2353, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2353, "skill_edge": 0.1241, "height_edge": 0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.7131, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CM", 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82.63, "total_pass": 29.3524, "accurate_pass": 24.047, "duels_won": 6.2921, "total_long_balls": 3.0261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8864, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.9125, "possession_lost": 10.1001, "dispossessed": 0.3999, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9777, "interceptions": 0.9777, "tackles_won": 1.3686, "tackles": 3.0861, "clearances": 0.3399, "total_contest": 4.2258, "won_contest": 1.8285, "challenges_lost": 0.289, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.289, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.6353, "ball_carries": 9.8941, "total_progression": 38.9783, "progressive_carries": 0.9177, "shots_off_target": 0.9471, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2353, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0278, "creation_factor": 0.9912 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.569, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 1.1307, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7207, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.637, "xa_scale": 1.637, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1193, "after": 0.1953 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0522, "after": 0.0855 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0855, "assist_rate": 0.0513, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1953, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4727, "total_shots": 1.4199, "rating": 6.7658, "minutes": 82.63, "total_pass": 29.3524, "accurate_pass": 24.047, "duels_won": 6.2921, "total_long_balls": 3.0261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8864, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.9125, "possession_lost": 10.1001, "dispossessed": 0.3999, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9777, "interceptions": 0.9777, "tackles_won": 1.3686, "tackles": 3.0861, "clearances": 0.3399, "total_contest": 4.2258, "won_contest": 1.8285, "challenges_lost": 0.289, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.289, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.6353, "ball_carries": 9.8941, "total_progression": 38.9783, "progressive_carries": 0.9177, "shots_off_target": 0.9471, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2353, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0278, "creation_factor": 0.9912, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 857, "fifa_rank": 739.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6457, "expected_assists": 0.0855, "assist_rate": 0.0513, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1953, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4727, "total_shots": 1.4199, "rating": 6.7658, "minutes": 82.63, "total_pass": 29.3524, "accurate_pass": 24.047, "duels_won": 6.2921, "total_long_balls": 3.0261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8864, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.9125, "possession_lost": 10.1001, "dispossessed": 0.3999, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9777, "interceptions": 0.9777, 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"keyPass", "predicted": 0.8981801867485046, "model_output": 0.8982, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1859 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0231 } ], "others": 0.0976, "total": 0.8982, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.243942 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041707 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03651 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 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} ], "others": 0.0269, "total": 6.8409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023446 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.016681 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015119 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011386 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008423 } ], "others_margin": 0.026954 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.6068, "aerialWon": 1.3123, "totalClearance_p90": 5.5248, "totalTackle": 1.1466, "totalPass": 33.8131 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0450507402420044, "model_output": 1.0451, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0937 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0553, "total": 1.0451, "log_link": true, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1444 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1382 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.104 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0865 } ], "others": 0.0297, "total": 1.695, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099649 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.095162 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.072435 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058821 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053338 } ], "others_margin": 0.017651 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5489027500152588, "model_output": 0.5489, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0584 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0099, "total": 0.5489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05839 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02428 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.017785 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017531 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01567 } ], "others_margin": 0.009837 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.860437870025635, "model_output": 6.8604, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0267, "total": 6.8604, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030006 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.011753 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011472 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.009275 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.008074 } ], "others_margin": 0.026832 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0438, "tackles": 1.2823, "tackles_won": 0.7765, "clearances": 5.1473, "aerial_won": 1.6929, "total_shots": 0.5482, "rating": 6.8604, "minutes": 89.3, "total_pass": 42.8827, "accurate_pass": 36.9428, "duels_won": 4.1307, "total_long_balls": 7.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3106, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.5041, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.196, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4388, "crosses_total": 0.0312, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.7018, "possession_lost": 6.6151, "dispossessed": 0.0427, "duels_lost": 1.4964, "aerial_lost": 0.816, "total_contest": 0.5046, "won_contest": 0.4658, "ball_recovery": 4.047, "challenges_lost": 0.1292, "fouls": 0.5294, "fouls_drawn": 0.7569, "blocks": 0.6858, "goals": 0.0597, 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"margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13605 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.090529 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.064666 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.055055 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.048835 } ], "others_margin": 0.08965 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.148991346359253, "model_output": 3.149, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3903 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.312 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2264 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.116 } ], "others": -0.3191, "total": 3.149, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.235809, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.10577 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.085416 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.061245 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.032892 } ], "others_margin": -0.096526 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.079196572303772, "model_output": 1.0792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2026 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1651 }, { "name": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.069 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 0.6268, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068967 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021683 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020401 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.01173 } ], "others_margin": 0.000437 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.75925874710083, "model_output": 6.7593, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0225, "total": 6.7593, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016122 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012814 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012009 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010637 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010466 } ], "others_margin": -0.022534 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9305, "tackles": 2.1798, "tackles_won": 1.3909, "clearances": 3.1446, "aerial_won": 1.0777, "total_shots": 0.6259, "rating": 6.7593, "minutes": 89.67, "total_pass": 27.9502, "accurate_pass": 19.5894, "duels_won": 6.0476, "total_long_balls": 6.3011, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7226, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.2141, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3753, "crosses_total": 3.379, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 56.7728, "possession_lost": 16.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2764, "duels_lost": 4.1464, "aerial_lost": 1.0184, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 1.0614, "ball_recovery": 2.6713, "challenges_lost": 1.3781, "fouls": 0.8752, "fouls_drawn": 1.6037, "blocks": 0.1789, "goals": 0.1146, 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0.9305, "tackles": 2.1798, "tackles_won": 1.3909, "clearances": 3.1446, "aerial_won": 1.0777, "total_shots": 0.6259, "rating": 6.7593, "minutes": 89.67, "total_pass": 27.9502, "accurate_pass": 19.5894, "duels_won": 6.0476, "total_long_balls": 6.3011, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7226, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.2141, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3753, "crosses_total": 3.379, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 56.7728, "possession_lost": 16.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2764, "duels_lost": 4.1464, "aerial_lost": 1.0184, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 1.0614, "ball_recovery": 2.6713, "challenges_lost": 1.3781, "fouls": 0.8752, "fouls_drawn": 1.6037, "blocks": 0.1789, "goals": 0.1146, "goal_rate": 0.1146, "assists": 0.008, "assist_rate": 0.008, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "big_chances_created": 0.0389, "xgot": 0.0525, "ball_carries": 10.9823, "total_progression": 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"name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0375 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0216, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": 0.0397, "total": 0.0445, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.021558, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022383 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014777 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013538 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012274 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.011957 } ], "others_margin": 0.039634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.051274299621582, "model_output": 7.0513, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0389 }, { 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"role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"stats": { "saves": 2.9329, "goals_prevented": 0.0444, "rating": 7.0513, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.8705, "accurate_pass": 13.9112, "total_long_balls": 16.7485, "accurate_long_balls": 6.9631, "touches": 31.1111, "clearances": 1.1563, "ball_recovery": 6.9771, "high_claims": 0.5116, "punches": 1.2409, "aerial_won": 0.2528, "sweeper_actions": 0.674, "sweeper_accurate": 0.674, "saves_inside_box": 1.2151, "possession_lost": 10.0513, "duels_won": 0.3487, "duels_lost": 0.0007, "total_contest": 0.0131, "won_contest": 0.0131, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1873, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9948, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5267, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", 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14.0, "expected_saves": 3.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.569, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 1.1307, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7207, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.637, "xa_scale": 1.637, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.5, "after": 14.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.55, "after": 3.43 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.22, "after": 1.18 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for 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"importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2305 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0802 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0568 } ], "others": -0.1765, "total": 0.7919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.294587 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.148034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079704 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.058227 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.057038 } ], "others_margin": -0.201066 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.662994861602783, "model_output": 6.663, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0475 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0703, "total": 6.663, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047463 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.020254 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020006 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019558 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.01794 } ], "others_margin": -0.070318 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1578, "goals": 0.1433, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "shots_on_target": 0.5929, "total_shots": 1.5304, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 0.7898, "rating": 6.663, "minutes": 80.26, "total_pass": 10.2096, "accurate_pass": 7.7519, "duels_won": 3.379, "total_long_balls": 0.1922, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.141, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8755, "crosses_total": 0.266, "crosses_accurate": 0.266, "touches": 20.3352, "possession_lost": 5.6576, "dispossessed": 1.3443, "duels_lost": 9.1021, "aerial_lost": 5.6307, "total_contest": 0.5321, "won_contest": 0.266, "ball_recovery": 1.4711, "challenges_lost": 0.4583, "fouls": 1.4027, "fouls_drawn": 2.1555, "assists": 0.2261, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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"progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0267 } ], "others": -0.0459, "total": 0.2256, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.894384 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.384088 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.136819 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.115636 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.093708 } ], "others_margin": -0.185153 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.24723151326179504, "model_output": 0.2472, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2259 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.2472, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.225877 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032972 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.021286 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016451 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014942 } ], "others_margin": -0.009389 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.61548376083374, "model_output": 6.6155, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0678, "total": 6.6155, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.03016 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.024302 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017693 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016435 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014057 } ], "others_margin": -0.067837 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5664, "total_progression": 13.8626, "progressive_carries": 0.1579, "key_pass": 0.1495, "shots_off_target": 0.138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2078, "tackles": 0.3481, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.3907, "aerial_won": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.138, "rating": 6.6155, "minutes": 13.96, "total_pass": 5.7656, "accurate_pass": 4.2062, "duels_won": 1.0999, "total_long_balls": 0.468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1688, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0511, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6296, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5766, "crosses_total": 0.2576, "crosses_accurate": 0.0926, "touches": 11.6371, "possession_lost": 3.036, "dispossessed": 0.1827, "duels_lost": 1.2025, "aerial_lost": 0.3711, "total_contest": 0.1747, "won_contest": 0.0484, "ball_recovery": 0.7265, "challenges_lost": 0.5253, "fouls": 0.4742, "fouls_drawn": 0.6043, "blocks": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0064, "expected_assists": 0.007, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5664, "total_progression": 13.8626, "progressive_carries": 0.1579, "key_pass": 0.1495, "shots_off_target": 0.138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.96, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.316, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2078, "tackles": 0.3481, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.3907, "aerial_won": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.138, "rating": 6.6155, "minutes": 13.96, "total_pass": 5.7656, "accurate_pass": 4.2062, "duels_won": 1.0999, "total_long_balls": 0.468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1688, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0511, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6296, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5766, "crosses_total": 0.2576, "crosses_accurate": 0.0926, "touches": 11.6371, "possession_lost": 3.036, "dispossessed": 0.1827, "duels_lost": 1.2025, "aerial_lost": 0.3711, "total_contest": 0.1747, "won_contest": 0.0484, "ball_recovery": 0.7265, "challenges_lost": 0.5253, "fouls": 0.4742, "fouls_drawn": 0.6043, "blocks": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0064, "expected_assists": 0.007, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5664, "total_progression": 13.8626, "progressive_carries": 0.1579, "key_pass": 0.1495, "shots_off_target": 0.138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.96, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 995, "fifa_rank": 770.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Arouna Sangante": { "player_id": 1035988, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 189, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 6.2848, "dispossessed": 0.3133, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3868, "combined_rank_score": 1861.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2900.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6916, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Arouna Sangante", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dimitris Giannoulis", "ranking": 3863 }, { "player_name": "Marcelino Núñez", "ranking": 3864 }, { "player_name": "Finn Dahmen", "ranking": 3865 }, { "player_name": "Keven Schlotterbeck", "ranking": 3866 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Díaz", "ranking": 3867 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Han-Noah Massengo", "ranking": 3869 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Salvio", "ranking": 3870 }, { "player_name": "Amos Pieper", "ranking": 3871 }, { "player_name": "Victor Boniface", "ranking": 3872 }, { "player_name": "Matt Doherty", "ranking": 3873 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.517, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.517, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.80051075650989, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.222, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9983, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (4 historical appearances) to 13.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4085, "tackles": 0.4802, "tackles_won": 0.3529, "clearances": 1.4781, "aerial_won": 0.9043, "total_shots": 0.2069, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 30.1703, "accurate_pass": 23.1517, "duels_won": 2.6307, "total_long_balls": 5.2643, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9576, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8759, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2758, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.8081, "possession_lost": 8.2113, "dispossessed": 0.3138, "duels_lost": 3.3078, "aerial_lost": 0.9469, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2798, "challenges_lost": 0.6276, "fouls": 1.2267, "fouls_drawn": 0.2667, "blocks": 0.8073, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.144, "total_progression": 25.2866, "progressive_carries": 0.4595, "key_pass": 0.2267, "shots_off_target": 0.2069 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-12T10:04:30.888503+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 623, "rows": 20487 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.3394, "aerialWon": 1.9445, "totalClearance_p90": 4.2461, "totalTackle": 0.4194, "totalPass": 30.1703 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.40852034091949463, "model_output": 0.4085, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4595 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 0.4085, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.152032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.765501 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.023142 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.021558 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.01964 } ], "others_margin": -0.040056 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4801725447177887, "model_output": 0.4802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2671 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0423 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3957, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7864 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.4802, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.333417, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.828764 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.107579 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.067192 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.031665 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.02983 } ], "others_margin": -0.001998 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.352897047996521, "model_output": 0.3529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2228 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0652 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8578, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4317 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.3529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.699684 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.080732 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.058594 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.046019 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.042636 } ], "others_margin": -0.045764 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4780851602554321, "model_output": 1.4781, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1585 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1158 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0463 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0399 } ], "others": -0.0476, "total": 1.4781, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.235809, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.986869 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.086427 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032588 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.027968 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.026482 } ], "others_margin": -0.031657 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9043155312538147, "model_output": 0.9043, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7731 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1348 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": 0.0601, "total": 0.9043, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.82302 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.201036 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.059145 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.042149 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.030257 } ], "others_margin": 0.068928 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20692633092403412, "model_output": 0.2069, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": -0.0196, "total": 0.2069, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20559 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.054936 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026661 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.021506 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.019925 } ], "others_margin": -0.019638 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.691641330718994, "model_output": 6.6916, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0201, "total": 6.6916, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028398 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012213 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01107 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010186 } ], "others_margin": -0.020021 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4078, "tackles": 0.4794, "tackles_won": 0.3523, "clearances": 1.4756, "aerial_won": 0.9028, "total_shots": 0.2066, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 30.119, "accurate_pass": 23.1123, "duels_won": 2.6262, "total_long_balls": 5.2554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9543, "total_own_half_passes": 18.045, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8489, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.074, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2634, "crosses_total": 0.1924, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.7421, "possession_lost": 8.1973, "dispossessed": 0.3133, "duels_lost": 3.3022, "aerial_lost": 0.9453, "total_contest": 0.1924, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2759, "challenges_lost": 0.6265, "fouls": 1.2246, "fouls_drawn": 0.2662, "blocks": 0.8059, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1268, "total_progression": 25.2436, "progressive_carries": 0.4587, "key_pass": 0.2263, "shots_off_target": 0.2065 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0409)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4056, "tackles": 0.4794, "tackles_won": 0.3427, "clearances": 1.4756, "aerial_won": 0.9028, "total_shots": 0.1981, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 30.119, "accurate_pass": 23.1123, "duels_won": 2.6262, "total_long_balls": 5.2554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9543, "total_own_half_passes": 18.045, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8489, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.074, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2634, "crosses_total": 0.1893, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.7421, "possession_lost": 8.1973, "dispossessed": 0.3133, "duels_lost": 3.3022, "aerial_lost": 0.9453, "total_contest": 0.1924, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2759, "challenges_lost": 0.6265, "fouls": 1.1889, "fouls_drawn": 0.2553, "blocks": 0.8059, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1268, "total_progression": 25.2436, "progressive_carries": 0.4587, "key_pass": 0.2263, "shots_off_target": 0.2065 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0409, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2246, "after": 1.1889 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2662, "after": 0.2553 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3523, "after": 0.3427 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.2066, "after": 0.1981 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles": 0.3676, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.1313, "aerial_won": 0.6922, "total_shots": 0.1583, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 23.0921, "accurate_pass": 17.7201, "duels_won": 2.0135, "total_long_balls": 4.0293, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4984, "total_own_half_passes": 13.835, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1513, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5688, "crosses_total": 0.1451, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.7034, "possession_lost": 6.2848, "dispossessed": 0.3133, "duels_lost": 2.5318, "aerial_lost": 0.9453, "total_contest": 0.1475, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7449, "challenges_lost": 0.6265, "fouls": 0.9115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.6179, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7642, "total_progression": 19.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.1735, "shots_off_target": 0.1583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.8, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7667, "appearance_probability": 0.222 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles": 0.3676, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.1313, "aerial_won": 0.6922, "total_shots": 0.1583, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 23.0921, "accurate_pass": 17.7201, "duels_won": 2.0135, "total_long_balls": 4.0293, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4984, "total_own_half_passes": 13.835, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1513, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5688, "crosses_total": 0.1451, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.7034, "possession_lost": 6.2848, "dispossessed": 0.3133, "duels_lost": 2.5318, "aerial_lost": 0.9453, "total_contest": 0.1475, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7449, "challenges_lost": 0.6265, "fouls": 0.9115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.6179, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7642, "total_progression": 19.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.1735, "shots_off_target": 0.1583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles": 0.3676, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.1313, "aerial_won": 0.6922, "total_shots": 0.1583, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 23.0921, "accurate_pass": 17.7201, "duels_won": 2.0135, "total_long_balls": 4.0293, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4984, "total_own_half_passes": 13.835, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1513, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5688, "crosses_total": 0.1451, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.7034, "possession_lost": 6.2848, "dispossessed": 0.3133, "duels_lost": 2.5318, "aerial_lost": 0.9453, "total_contest": 0.1475, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7449, "challenges_lost": 0.6265, "fouls": 0.9115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.6179, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7642, 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0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.0914, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.426905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.16947 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.141808 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.064879 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.055405 } ], "others_margin": -0.059584 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20163528621196747, "model_output": 0.2016, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1597 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.2016, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.678881 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.162559 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.144315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030224 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.029791 } ], "others_margin": -0.102847 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6013970375061035, "model_output": 0.6014, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1338 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.6014, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.133811 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.046043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034525 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027907 } ], "others_margin": -0.000794 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.730469226837158, "model_output": 6.7305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0576 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0546, "total": 6.7305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057579 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.039917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03631 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.02322 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011925 } ], "others_margin": -0.054621 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.528)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5757, "expected_assists": 0.072, "assists": 0.0797, "assist_rate": 0.0797, "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "total_shots": 0.6022, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 24.43, "total_pass": 12.0939, "accurate_pass": 9.4231, "duels_won": 1.2577, "total_long_balls": 0.8748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3695, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3639, "crosses_total": 2.8225, "crosses_accurate": 0.7153, "touches": 20.6104, "possession_lost": 5.9086, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.1082, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1153, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 0.5363, "clearances": 0.0981, "total_contest": 0.2191, "won_contest": 0.2191, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2715, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0148, "ball_carries": 6.7434, "total_progression": 28.3717, "progressive_carries": 1.5308, "shots_off_target": 0.4003 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10500000, "quality_factor": 0.5283, "boost_factor": 1.0012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "assists": 0.0729, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goals": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.33, "projection_minutes": 24.43, "minutes_scale": 0.9141, "appearance_probability": 0.515 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "assists": 0.0729, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goals": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9585, xG scale 1.6370, xA scale 1.6370, team xA 1.13 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "creation_factor": 1.0613 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.569, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 1.1307, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7207, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.637, "xa_scale": 1.637, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.515 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0637, "after": 0.1043 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0658, "after": 0.1077 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "creation_factor": 1.0613, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3838, "fifa_rank": 3498.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.051, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "creation_factor": 1.0613, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.051, "scorer_weight": 0.0632, "squad_weight_total": 1.7115, "weight_share": 0.0369, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "appearance_weight": 0.515, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2458, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2458, "runner_up": "Miguel Sierra", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2441 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.2441, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2441, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2007 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 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0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3285 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.198 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": -0.1303, "total": 0.248, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.328495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198029 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034779 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025894 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.024483 } ], "others_margin": -0.130253 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729272842407227, 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Lucas Stassin": { "player_id": 1126521, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 184, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2701, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0153, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1615, "goals": 0.1858, "goal_rate": 0.1858, "shots_on_target": 0.4755, "total_shots": 1.0782, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2649, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 25.33, "total_pass": 11.262, "accurate_pass": 7.041, "duels_won": 4.1116, "total_long_balls": 0.3355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3355, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0015, "crosses_total": 0.3355, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 23.8659, "possession_lost": 8.9443, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.2871, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7454, "won_contest": 1.0153, "ball_recovery": 1.8047, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7301, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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0.2113 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0717 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5367, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2073 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0314, "total": 0.3853, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.622283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488043 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.036738 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.033601 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.028923 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027628 } ], "others_margin": 0.084895 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9005606770515442, "model_output": 0.9006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5827 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 0.9006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.582741 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.057237 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.035275 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.02256 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.018497 } ], "others_margin": 0.013921 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.026632875204086304, "model_output": 0.0266, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 0.0266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.387492 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.137402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.073883 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.071614 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.056485 } ], "others_margin": -0.147535 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29008591175079346, "model_output": 0.2901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2782 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.2901, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.083039 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080749 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060391 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051506 } ], "others_margin": -0.032014 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.689241409301758, "model_output": 6.6892, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0674 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 6.6892, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067375 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.013162 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.008772 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008413 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.007641 } ], "others_margin": -0.028152 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1133, "goals": 0.1593, "goal_rate": 0.1593, "shots_on_target": 0.3864, "total_shots": 0.9031, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "key_pass": 0.2909, "rating": 6.6892, "minutes": 24.99, "total_pass": 6.7352, "accurate_pass": 3.5376, "duels_won": 1.8189, "total_long_balls": 0.3137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7288, "crosses_total": 0.2304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.2001, "possession_lost": 5.1875, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.8832, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2741, "won_contest": 0.1798, "ball_recovery": 0.7155, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0801, "tackles": 0.0801, "clearances": 0.5933, "blocks": 0.1109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3764, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.4534, "total_progression": 10.0699, "progressive_carries": 0.7362, "shots_off_target": 0.5167 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1171, "goals": 0.1647, "goal_rate": 0.1647, "shots_on_target": 0.3995, "total_shots": 0.9337, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.3008, "rating": 6.6892, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, 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"goals": 0.1647, "goal_rate": 0.1647, "shots_on_target": 0.3995, "total_shots": 0.9337, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.3008, "rating": 6.6892, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.5342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9585, xG scale 1.6370, xA scale 1.6370, team xA 1.13 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.1647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3995, "total_shots": 0.9337, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.3008, "rating": 6.6892, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.637, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.5342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.569, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 1.1307, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7207, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.637, "xa_scale": 1.637, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.583 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1171, "after": 0.1917 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0276, "after": 0.0452 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.1647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3995, "total_shots": 0.9337, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.3008, "rating": 6.6892, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.637, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.5342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3563, "fifa_rank": 2356.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.1647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3995, "total_shots": 0.9337, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.3008, "rating": 6.6892, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.637, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.5342, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1017, "scorer_weight": 0.1397, "squad_weight_total": 1.7115, "weight_share": 0.0816, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2458, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2458, "runner_up": "Miguel Sierra", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2441 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.2441, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2441, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2007 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0153, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1615, "goals": 0.1858, "goal_rate": 0.1858, "shots_on_target": 0.4755, "total_shots": 1.0782, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2649, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 25.33, "total_pass": 11.262, "accurate_pass": 7.041, "duels_won": 4.1116, "total_long_balls": 0.3355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3355, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0015, "crosses_total": 0.3355, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 23.8659, "possession_lost": 8.9443, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.2871, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7454, "won_contest": 1.0153, "ball_recovery": 1.8047, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7301, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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"crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6159, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 25.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0219, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.165, "goals": 0.1899, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "shots_on_target": 0.4859, "total_shots": 1.1018, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.4298, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6159, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9585, xG scale 1.6370, xA scale 1.6370, team xA 1.13 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2701, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4859, "total_shots": 1.1018, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.7036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6159, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1158, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.569, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 1.1307, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7207, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.637, "xa_scale": 1.637, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.165, "after": 0.2701 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.018, "after": 0.0295 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2701, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4859, "total_shots": 1.1018, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.7036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6159, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3440, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2701, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4859, "total_shots": 1.1018, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.7036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6159, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1387, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1387, "scorer_weight": 0.1766, "squad_weight_total": 1.7115, "weight_share": 0.1032, "finishing_factor": 1.1158, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2458, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2458, "runner_up": "Miguel Sierra", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2441 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.2441, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2441, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2007 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2701, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4859, "total_shots": 1.1018, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5081, "accurate_pass": 7.1949, "duels_won": 4.2015, "total_long_balls": 0.3428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7385, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1108, "crosses_total": 0.3428, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 24.3875, "possession_lost": 9.1398, "dispossessed": 0.6207, "duels_lost": 4.3808, "aerial_lost": 2.3158, "total_contest": 1.7835, "won_contest": 1.0375, "ball_recovery": 1.8441, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7461, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0375, "xgot": 0.7036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6797, "total_progression": 37.4881, "progressive_carries": 0.8067, "shots_off_target": 0.6159, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1387, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "finishing_factor": 1.1158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "provider_weight": 0.0138, "squad_weight_total": 1.0592, "weight_share": 0.0131, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.1989, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1989, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1531 } ] } } ] }, "Akor Adams": { "player_id": 946381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 190, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.1647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6892, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.637, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, 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"aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.1034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1078, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0831, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083265, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, 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0.20163528621196747, "model_output": 0.2016, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1597 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.2016, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.678881 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.162559 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.144315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030224 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.029791 } ], "others_margin": -0.102847 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6013970375061035, "model_output": 0.6014, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1338 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.6014, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.133811 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.046043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034525 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027907 } ], "others_margin": -0.000794 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.730469226837158, "model_output": 6.7305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0576 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0546, "total": 6.7305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.528)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5757, "expected_assists": 0.072, "assists": 0.0797, "assist_rate": 0.0797, "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "total_shots": 0.6022, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 24.43, "total_pass": 12.0939, "accurate_pass": 9.4231, "duels_won": 1.2577, "total_long_balls": 0.8748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3695, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3639, "crosses_total": 2.8225, "crosses_accurate": 0.7153, "touches": 20.6104, "possession_lost": 5.9086, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.1082, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1153, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 0.5363, "clearances": 0.0981, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.33, "projection_minutes": 24.43, "minutes_scale": 0.9141, "appearance_probability": 0.515 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "assists": 0.0729, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goals": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9585, xG scale 1.6370, xA scale 1.6370, team xA 1.13 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "creation_factor": 1.0613 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.569, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9585, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 1.1307, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7207, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.637, "xa_scale": 1.637, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.515 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0637, "after": 0.1043 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0658, "after": 0.1077 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "creation_factor": 1.0613, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3838, "fifa_rank": 3498.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.051, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "creation_factor": 1.0613, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.051, "scorer_weight": 0.0632, "squad_weight_total": 1.7115, "weight_share": 0.0369, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "appearance_weight": 0.515, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.2458, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2458, "runner_up": "Miguel Sierra", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2441 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.2441, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2441, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2007 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5263, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0837, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1846, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.7305, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.3659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.508, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.051, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0526, "finishing_factor": 1.1759, "creation_factor": 1.0613, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0526, "provider_weight": 0.0589, "squad_weight_total": 1.0592, "weight_share": 0.0556, "creation_factor": 1.0613, "appearance_weight": 0.515, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.1989, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1989, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1531 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.57, "expected_assists": 1.13, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 352, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Thiago Fernández", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Juan Iglesias" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.1033, "xg_multiplier": 0.9237, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Iglesias", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thiago Fernández (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Juan Iglesias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.103 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.3376, "xg_multiplier": 0.9376, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.338 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Roger Brugué", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas", "Andrés Castrin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.532, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2958, "xg_multiplier": 0.829, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roger Brugué (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Kike Salas and Andrés Castrin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.296 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.256, "xg_contribution": 0.0319, "xg_multiplier": 0.7588, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.744 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Youssouf Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €25M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.0987, "xg_multiplier": 0.7647, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Youssouf Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €25M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Bardeli", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.293, "xg_contribution": 0.0405, "xg_multiplier": 0.7692, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.707 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Bardeli (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Youssouf Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €25M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "xg_contribution": 0.0576, "xg_multiplier": 0.9756, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.537 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Kochorashvili (LW) is evenly matched against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Robbie Ure", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "xg_contribution": 0.1673, "xg_multiplier": 1.0603, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.759 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.759 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robbie Ure (ST) is slightly favored against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.167 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Sierra", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 330000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.188, "xg_contribution": 0.1193, "xg_multiplier": 0.9824, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Sierra (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Félix Correia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.1146, "xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Félix Correia (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.115 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Youssouf Fofana", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 25000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.677, "defenders": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "xg_contribution": 0.1193, "xg_multiplier": 1.2353, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.44 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youssouf Fofana (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Jon Ander Olasagasti in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€25M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Lucien Agoumé", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.515, "xg_contribution": 0.043, "xg_multiplier": 1.1693, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.485 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucien Agoumé (CDM) is slightly favored against Jon Ander Olasagasti in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.449, "away_midfield_power": 0.572, "home_creative_power": 0.425, "away_creative_power": 0.386, "home_defensive_power": 0.387, "away_defensive_power": 0.612, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.44, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Oriol Rey", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé", "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Enzo Bardeli vs Youssouf Fofana", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.974, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.013 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.472, "away_lambda": 1.569, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Thiago Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Juan Iglesias" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Andrés Castrin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure", "Miguel Sierra", "Félix Correia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremy Toljan": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure", "Miguel Sierra", "Félix Correia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Félix Correia", "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrés Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Youssouf Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Kochorashvili": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robbie Ure": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Miguel Sierra": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Félix Correia": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Enzo Bardeli vs Youssouf Fofana). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.098, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9735, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0016, "home_midfield_factor": 0.974, "away_midfield_factor": 1.013, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4539, "away_avg_quality": 0.5174, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0634, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7978, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7732, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7393, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1602, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0881, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0513, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9078, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0184 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.974, "result": 0.9919 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.0216 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1749 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9389, "result": 1.1031 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0096, "result": 1.1137 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9735, "result": 1.0842 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.021, "result": 1.1052 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1052, "result": 1.1052, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1602, "factor": 0.9487, "pre": 1.1052, "result": 1.0485 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0485 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1993, "result": 1.2483 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.4691, "result": 1.5267 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5267, "result": 1.527, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9643, "pre": 1.527, "result": 1.4725, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.472 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.472 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.472, "result": 1.472, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.472 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6211, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8033 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.013, "result": 0.8138 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8056 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8056 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0205, "result": 0.8221 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.8309 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0016, "result": 0.8322 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.098, "result": 0.9302 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9302, "result": 0.9302, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1602, "factor": 1.0881, "pre": 0.9302, "result": 1.0122 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0122 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.232 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.4741, "result": 1.5152 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5152, "result": 1.515, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0357, "pre": 1.515, "result": 1.5691, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.569 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.569 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.569, "result": 1.569, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.569 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1993, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Sevilla", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.469, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.474, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.472, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.569, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5267, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5152, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.472, "final_away_lambda": 1.569 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9389, "attack_index": 0.963, "defense_concede_index": 0.9, "form_multiplier": 0.971, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.44, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.35, "team_ppg": 1.11, "opponent_ppg": 1.64 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0205, "attack_index": 0.933, "defense_concede_index": 1.111, "form_multiplier": 1.029, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.4, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.67, "team_ppg": 1.64, "opponent_ppg": 1.11 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Levante vs Sevilla. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.527, Away 1.515). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.472, Away 1.569 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 6, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Sevilla", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.469, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.474, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.472, "away_lambda": 1.569, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.527, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.515 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-12T13:31:11Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }