{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Deportivo", "away_team": "Levante", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261016", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1302, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1008, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1055, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2743, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1302 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1055 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1008 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0858 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0814 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0858, "0-1": 0.1055, "0-2": 0.0674, "0-3": 0.0284, "0-4": 0.009, "0-5": 0.0023, "1-0": 0.1008, "1-1": 0.1302, "1-2": 0.0814, "1-3": 0.0343, "1-4": 0.0108, "1-5": 0.0027, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0617, "2-1": 0.0779, "2-2": 0.0492, "2-3": 0.0207, "2-4": 0.0065, "2-5": 0.0017, "3-0": 0.0248, "3-1": 0.0314, "3-2": 0.0198, "3-3": 0.0083, "3-4": 0.0026, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0075, "4-1": 0.0095, "4-2": 0.006, "4-3": 0.0025, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0018, "5-1": 0.0023, "5-2": 0.0014, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3497, "draw": 0.2743, "away_win": 0.376 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4487, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5513, "btts_yes": 0.5042, "btts_no": 0.4958, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2828, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2988 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.98, "ATR": 6.84, "GK": 7.04 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 7.06 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Deportivo vs Levante. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Deportivo 3W-4D-3L vs Levante over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bil Nsongo, Iván Romero", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Soriano vs Jon Ander Olasagasti will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.91. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.208, "away_lambda": 1.263, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1302, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3497, "draw": 0.2743, "away_win": 0.376 }, "favorite": "Levante", "favorite_win_probability": 0.376, "fair_spread": -0.055, "fair_total": 2.471, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.208, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.263, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4487, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5042, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2828, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2988, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bil Nsongo (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.2698, "probability": 0.2365, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iván Romero (Levante)", "estimate": 0.281, "probability": 0.245, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mario Soriano (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.1649, "probability": 0.152, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1504, "probability": 0.1396, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.471, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 757, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.0, "possession_home_pct": 50.1, "possession_away_pct": 49.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Levante", "favorite_win_probability": 0.376, "script": "Levante is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.06 goals and fair total 2.47.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Deportivo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Levante lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Levante chance creation leans on Iván Romero against Ximo Navarro in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Bil Nsongo; bench watchlist: Jonathan Asp Jensen, Adama Traoré.", "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Iván Romero; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov.", "Assist usage should flow through Yeremay Hernández, Jon Ander Olasagasti; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Levante tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.24 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Deportivo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Levante.", "Deportivo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Deportivo": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Riki Rodríguez": { "player_id": 950110, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 175, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "assist_rate": 0.0676, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.082, "goal_rate": 0.0643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 69, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 6.1154, "dispossessed": 1.0761, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9353, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0787, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0579, "finishing_factor": 0.9621, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0596, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2803, "combined_rank_score": 1265.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 959.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1572.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7788, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Riki Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Fabio Wolfinger", "ranking": 2798 }, { "player_name": "Andrin Netzer", "ranking": 2799 }, { "player_name": "Kim Gyeol", "ranking": 2800 }, { "player_name": "Brede Moe", "ranking": 2801 }, { "player_name": "Jamaal Lascelles", "ranking": 2802 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Juan Carlos Arana", "ranking": 2804 }, { "player_name": "Gnangoro Bouaré", "ranking": 2805 }, { "player_name": "Marc Santos", "ranking": 2806 }, { "player_name": "Juan Quintero", "ranking": 2807 }, { "player_name": "Junior Paredes", "ranking": 2808 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.57, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.57, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9899, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Dep. A Coruña", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 63.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Dep. A Coruña, rel: 0.05, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7295, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "assists": 0.0693, "assist_rate": 0.0693, "expected_goals": 0.0743, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.3714, "total_shots": 1.0552, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 68.79, "total_pass": 21.2715, "accurate_pass": 18.1353, "duels_won": 1.3538, "total_long_balls": 1.4255, "accurate_long_balls": 0.966, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1351, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.6769, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0002, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.5312, "possession_lost": 6.1778, "dispossessed": 1.0871, "duels_lost": 3.0, "aerial_won": 0.2667, "aerial_lost": 0.3854, "interceptions": 0.7262, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.7733, "total_contest": 0.6276, "won_contest": 0.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.7202, "fouls": 0.6862, "fouls_drawn": 0.4595, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9285, "total_progression": 26.3657, "progressive_carries": 0.3138, "shots_off_target": 0.6838 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-16T10:31:49.993480+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.7685, "creative_index": 0.3196, "expectedGoals": 0.0503, "expectedAssists": 0.0203, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2696 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7294577956199646, "model_output": 0.7295, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.133 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1204 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0956 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0617 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.0693, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.128745 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.115483 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.085864 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.059658 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.052371 } ], "others_margin": -0.064552 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07433727383613586, "model_output": 0.0743, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 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"totalShots", "predicted": 1.0551871061325073, "model_output": 1.0552, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1499 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0931 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0797 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.027 } ], "others": -0.0865, "total": 1.0552, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.149934 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093088 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079664 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.036691 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7221, "expected_assists": 0.05, "assists": 0.0686, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0699, "shots_on_target": 0.3677, "total_shots": 1.0446, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 68.79, "total_pass": 21.0567, "accurate_pass": 17.9521, "duels_won": 1.3401, "total_long_balls": 1.4111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9562, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.063, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8891, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.2228, "possession_lost": 6.1154, "dispossessed": 1.0761, "duels_lost": 2.9697, "aerial_won": 0.264, "aerial_lost": 0.3815, "interceptions": 0.7189, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3106, "clearances": 0.7655, "total_contest": 0.6213, "won_contest": 0.3106, "challenges_lost": 0.7129, "fouls": 0.6793, "fouls_drawn": 0.4549, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8484, "total_progression": 26.0994, "progressive_carries": 0.3106, "shots_off_target": 0.6769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0152)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7221, "expected_assists": 0.05, "assists": 0.0676, "assist_rate": 0.0676, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0688, "shots_on_target": 0.3621, "total_shots": 1.0287, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 68.79, "total_pass": 21.0567, "accurate_pass": 17.9521, "duels_won": 1.3401, "total_long_balls": 1.4111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9562, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.063, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8891, "crosses_total": 0.2045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.2228, "possession_lost": 6.1154, "dispossessed": 1.0761, "duels_lost": 2.9697, "aerial_won": 0.264, "aerial_lost": 0.3815, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3106, "clearances": 0.7655, "total_contest": 0.6213, "won_contest": 0.3106, "challenges_lost": 0.7129, "fouls": 0.6856, "fouls_drawn": 0.4646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8484, "total_progression": 26.0994, "progressive_carries": 0.3106, "shots_off_target": 0.6769 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0152, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7643, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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{ "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.949246406555176, "model_output": 6.9492, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0694 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0726, "total": 6.9492, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.069361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030368 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028479 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022729 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "assists": 0.0485, "assist_rate": 0.0485, "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6289, "rating": 6.9492, "minutes": 76.33, "total_pass": 35.4665, "accurate_pass": 29.5002, "duels_won": 3.0929, "total_long_balls": 3.3601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1327, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5142, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.986, "crosses_total": 0.3103, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2491, "possession_lost": 6.5403, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.725, "aerial_won": 1.0223, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.155, "tackles_won": 0.4147, "tackles": 1.4499, "clearances": 1.2188, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5344, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.6205, "blocks": 0.6205, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1666, "ball_carries": 10.2459, "total_progression": 24.744, "progressive_carries": 0.1905, "shots_off_target": 0.4823 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0169)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "assists": 0.0477, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.064, "goal_rate": 0.064, "shots_on_target": 0.1441, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.9492, "minutes": 76.33, "total_pass": 35.4665, "accurate_pass": 29.5002, "duels_won": 3.0929, "total_long_balls": 3.3601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1327, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5142, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.986, "crosses_total": 0.3051, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2491, "possession_lost": 6.5403, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.725, "aerial_won": 1.0223, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.156, "tackles_won": 0.4486, "tackles": 1.4499, "clearances": 1.2188, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5344, "fouls": 0.2077, "fouls_drawn": 0.61, "blocks": 0.6205, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1666, "ball_carries": 10.2459, "total_progression": 24.744, "progressive_carries": 0.1905, "shots_off_target": 0.4823 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0169, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8481, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5731, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.064, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1441, "total_shots": 0.6264, "rating": 6.9492, "minutes": 76.33, "total_pass": 35.4665, "accurate_pass": 29.5002, "duels_won": 3.0929, "total_long_balls": 3.3601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1327, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5142, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.986, "crosses_total": 0.3051, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2491, "possession_lost": 6.5403, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.725, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.156, "tackles_won": 0.4486, "tackles": 1.4499, "clearances": 1.2188, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5344, "fouls": 0.2077, "fouls_drawn": 0.61, "blocks": 0.6205, 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-0.0047, "total": 0.4976, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062015 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.048782 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017244 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.014501 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.011876 } ], "others_margin": -0.004733 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.662742614746094, "model_output": 6.6627, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0616, "total": 6.6627, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026942 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020069 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015714 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01566 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.013403 } ], "others_margin": -0.061492 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9938, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.049, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.7891, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4945, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.6583, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3897, "fouls_drawn": 1.5255, "blocks": 0.2692, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.014, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9938, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0500)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4698, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.5896, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5308, "blocks": 0.2692, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.014, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.05, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.979, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. A Coruña" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.6583, "after": 3.5896 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4945, "after": 0.4698 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7891, "after": 0.766 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.049, "after": 1.0618 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1585, "after": 0.1506 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5255, "after": 1.5308 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4866, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.5896, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5308, "blocks": 0.2692, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.014, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4866, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.5896, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5308, "blocks": 0.2692, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.014, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4866, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.5896, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5308, "blocks": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.014, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4866, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.5896, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5308, "blocks": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.039, "after": 0.0465 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0798, "after": 0.0951 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4866, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.5896, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5308, "blocks": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4186, "fifa_rank": 3511.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4866, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8685, "crosses_total": 3.5896, "crosses_accurate": 0.9781, "touches": 53.0065, "possession_lost": 13.2702, "dispossessed": 0.1801, "duels_lost": 3.2524, "aerial_lost": 1.0176, "total_contest": 1.061, "won_contest": 0.7007, "ball_recovery": 4.0626, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 1.3855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5308, "blocks": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.1506, "big_chances_created": 0.1865, "xgot": 0.0167, "ball_carries": 13.3748, "total_progression": 43.4364, "progressive_carries": 0.5186, "key_pass": 0.9736, "shots_off_target": 0.336, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0372, "squad_weight_total": 1.1945, "weight_share": 0.0311, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.2647, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2647, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2571 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0618, "tackles": 1.354, "tackles_won": 0.766, "clearances": 2.2585, "aerial_won": 0.711, "total_shots": 0.4866, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 88.11, "total_pass": 31.6244, "accurate_pass": 24.2055, "duels_won": 3.2585, "total_long_balls": 4.0508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0129, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3371, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8397, 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6.8544, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": 0.0197, "total": 6.8544, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020031 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.016442 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.016389 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01542 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012623 } ], "others_margin": 0.01959 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9386, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.677, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2656, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.757, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6200000, "quality_factor": 0.4769, "boost_factor": 0.9958, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0477)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5247, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0477, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. A Coruña" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.677, "after": 0.7097 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0217 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2656, "after": 0.2529 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.068, "after": 0.081 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 66.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 66.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0648, "squad_weight_total": 1.1945, "weight_share": 0.0542, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.2647, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2647, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2571 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9372, "tackles": 1.245, "tackles_won": 0.7097, "clearances": 5.9078, "aerial_won": 1.9766, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.8544, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.6299, "accurate_pass": 48.0103, "duels_won": 3.8757, "total_long_balls": 4.3939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8841, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6319, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.5131, "possession_lost": 5.8049, "dispossessed": 0.1919, "duels_lost": 1.7528, "aerial_lost": 1.0695, "total_contest": 0.2257, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.0217, "blocks": 0.757, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7755, "total_progression": 55.371, "progressive_carries": 0.6964, "key_pass": 0.3125, "shots_off_target": 0.5279, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0428, "tackles": 1.3277, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 5.8129, "aerial_won": 2.1975, "total_shots": 0.7294, "rating": 6.8825, "minutes": 83.06, "total_pass": 57.6975, "accurate_pass": 52.501, "duels_won": 4.5746, "total_long_balls": 6.2868, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6807, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8157, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2704, "possession_lost": 6.1425, "dispossessed": 0.0772, "duels_lost": 3.5119, "aerial_lost": 1.4355, "total_contest": 0.2166, "won_contest": 0.0798, "ball_recovery": 2.2005, "challenges_lost": 0.8401, "fouls": 1.0819, "fouls_drawn": 0.2779, "blocks": 0.92, "goals": 0.0, 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"expected_assists": 0.0219, "shots_on_target": 0.2328, "big_chances_created": 0.137, "xgot": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 20.6743, "total_progression": 59.5592, "progressive_carries": 0.3614, "key_pass": 0.2678, "shots_off_target": 0.4959 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0396, "tackles": 1.3277, "tackles_won": 0.8102, "clearances": 5.8129, "aerial_won": 2.1975, "total_shots": 0.7287, "rating": 6.8825, "minutes": 83.06, "total_pass": 57.6975, "accurate_pass": 52.501, "duels_won": 4.5746, "total_long_balls": 6.2868, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6807, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8157, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2704, "possession_lost": 6.1425, "dispossessed": 0.0772, 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"opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0396, "tackles": 1.3277, "tackles_won": 0.8102, "clearances": 5.8129, "aerial_won": 2.1975, "total_shots": 0.7287, "rating": 6.8825, "minutes": 83.06, "total_pass": 57.6975, "accurate_pass": 52.501, "duels_won": 4.5746, "total_long_balls": 6.2868, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6807, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8157, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2704, "possession_lost": 6.1425, "dispossessed": 0.0772, "duels_lost": 3.5119, "aerial_lost": 1.4355, "total_contest": 0.2166, "won_contest": 0.0798, "ball_recovery": 2.2005, "challenges_lost": 0.8401, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.277, "blocks": 0.92, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0853, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "shots_on_target": 0.2328, "big_chances_created": 0.137, "xgot": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 20.6743, "total_progression": 59.5592, "progressive_carries": 0.3614, "key_pass": 0.2678, "shots_off_target": 0.4959, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0396, "tackles": 1.3277, "tackles_won": 0.8102, "clearances": 5.8129, "aerial_won": 2.1975, "total_shots": 0.7287, "rating": 6.8825, "minutes": 83.06, "total_pass": 57.6975, "accurate_pass": 52.501, "duels_won": 4.5746, "total_long_balls": 6.2868, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6807, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8157, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2704, "possession_lost": 6.1425, "dispossessed": 0.0772, "duels_lost": 3.5119, "aerial_lost": 1.4355, "total_contest": 0.2166, "won_contest": 0.0798, "ball_recovery": 2.2005, "challenges_lost": 0.8401, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.277, 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"team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0853, "after": 0.1016 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0396, "tackles": 1.3277, "tackles_won": 0.8102, "clearances": 5.8129, "aerial_won": 2.1975, "total_shots": 0.7287, "rating": 6.8825, "minutes": 83.06, "total_pass": 57.6975, "accurate_pass": 52.501, "duels_won": 4.5746, "total_long_balls": 6.2868, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6807, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8157, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.2704, "possession_lost": 6.1425, "dispossessed": 0.0772, "duels_lost": 3.5119, "aerial_lost": 1.4355, "total_contest": 0.2166, "won_contest": 0.0798, "ball_recovery": 2.2005, "challenges_lost": 0.8401, "fouls": 1.0928, "fouls_drawn": 0.277, "blocks": 0.92, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "shots_on_target": 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"fouls_drawn": 0.277, "blocks": 0.92, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "shots_on_target": 0.2328, "big_chances_created": 0.137, "xgot": 0.0756, "ball_carries": 20.6743, "total_progression": 59.5592, "progressive_carries": 0.3614, "key_pass": 0.2678, "shots_off_target": 0.4959, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0966, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, 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"margin": 0.035079 } ], "others_margin": -0.113104 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5218421816825867, "model_output": 0.5218, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0356, "total": 0.5218, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040135 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036429 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.028721 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.01045 } ], "others_margin": -0.035622 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741098880767822, "model_output": 6.7411, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 6.7411, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010681 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010492 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009299 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008282 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.007776 } ], "others_margin": -0.012625 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1163, "tackles": 2.0576, "tackles_won": 1.3241, "clearances": 4.2493, "aerial_won": 1.415, "total_shots": 0.5175, "rating": 6.7411, "minutes": 83.71, "total_pass": 36.0709, "accurate_pass": 30.9723, "duels_won": 4.3946, "total_long_balls": 2.9995, "accurate_long_balls": 1.695, "total_own_half_passes": 21.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6105, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3618, "crosses_total": 1.4245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0551, "possession_lost": 8.3343, "dispossessed": 0.1582, "duels_lost": 3.8363, "aerial_lost": 1.7229, "total_contest": 0.6675, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3513, "challenges_lost": 0.8527, "fouls": 0.435, "fouls_drawn": 0.7555, "blocks": 0.1345, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.042, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7331, "total_progression": 25.0233, "progressive_carries": 0.7948, "key_pass": 0.0972, "shots_off_target": 0.5174 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 95000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0524)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.125, "tackles": 2.0576, "tackles_won": 1.2884, "clearances": 4.2493, "aerial_won": 1.415, "total_shots": 0.524, "rating": 6.7411, "minutes": 83.71, "total_pass": 36.0709, "accurate_pass": 30.9723, "duels_won": 4.3946, "total_long_balls": 2.9995, "accurate_long_balls": 1.695, "total_own_half_passes": 21.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6105, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3618, "crosses_total": 1.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0551, "possession_lost": 8.3343, "dispossessed": 0.1582, "duels_lost": 3.8363, "aerial_lost": 1.7229, "total_contest": 0.6675, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3513, "challenges_lost": 0.8527, "fouls": 0.4626, "fouls_drawn": 0.7663, "blocks": 0.1345, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.042, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7331, "total_progression": 25.0233, "progressive_carries": 0.7948, "key_pass": 0.0972, "shots_off_target": 0.5174 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0524, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9301, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.125, "tackles": 2.0576, "tackles_won": 1.2884, "clearances": 4.2493, "aerial_won": 1.415, "total_shots": 0.524, "rating": 6.7411, "minutes": 83.71, "total_pass": 36.0709, "accurate_pass": 30.9723, "duels_won": 4.3946, "total_long_balls": 2.9995, "accurate_long_balls": 1.695, "total_own_half_passes": 21.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6105, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3618, "crosses_total": 1.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0551, "possession_lost": 8.3343, "dispossessed": 0.1582, "duels_lost": 3.8363, "aerial_lost": 1.7229, "total_contest": 0.6675, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3513, "challenges_lost": 0.8527, "fouls": 0.4626, "fouls_drawn": 0.7663, "blocks": 0.1345, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.042, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7331, "total_progression": 25.0233, "progressive_carries": 0.7948, "key_pass": 0.0972, "shots_off_target": 0.5174, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.125, "tackles": 2.0576, "tackles_won": 1.2884, "clearances": 4.2493, "aerial_won": 1.415, "total_shots": 0.524, "rating": 6.7411, "minutes": 83.71, "total_pass": 36.0709, "accurate_pass": 30.9723, "duels_won": 4.3946, "total_long_balls": 2.9995, "accurate_long_balls": 1.695, "total_own_half_passes": 21.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6105, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3618, "crosses_total": 1.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0551, "possession_lost": 8.3343, "dispossessed": 0.1582, "duels_lost": 3.8363, "aerial_lost": 1.7229, "total_contest": 0.6675, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3513, "challenges_lost": 0.8527, "fouls": 0.4626, "fouls_drawn": 0.7663, "blocks": 0.1345, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.05, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7331, "total_progression": 25.0233, "progressive_carries": 0.7948, "key_pass": 0.0972, "shots_off_target": 0.5174, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.042, "after": 0.05 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.125, "tackles": 2.0576, "tackles_won": 1.2884, "clearances": 4.2493, "aerial_won": 1.415, "total_shots": 0.524, "rating": 6.7411, "minutes": 83.71, "total_pass": 36.0709, "accurate_pass": 30.9723, "duels_won": 4.3946, "total_long_balls": 2.9995, "accurate_long_balls": 1.695, "total_own_half_passes": 21.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6105, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3618, "crosses_total": 1.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0551, "possession_lost": 8.3343, "dispossessed": 0.1582, "duels_lost": 3.8363, "aerial_lost": 1.7229, "total_contest": 0.6675, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3513, "challenges_lost": 0.8527, "fouls": 0.4626, "fouls_drawn": 0.7663, "blocks": 0.1345, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.05, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7331, "total_progression": 25.0233, "progressive_carries": 0.7948, "key_pass": 0.0972, "shots_off_target": 0.5174, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4544, "fifa_rank": 4245.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.125, "tackles": 2.0576, "tackles_won": 1.2884, "clearances": 4.2493, "aerial_won": 1.415, "total_shots": 0.524, "rating": 6.7411, "minutes": 83.71, "total_pass": 36.0709, "accurate_pass": 30.9723, "duels_won": 4.3946, "total_long_balls": 2.9995, "accurate_long_balls": 1.695, "total_own_half_passes": 21.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6105, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3618, "crosses_total": 1.4339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0551, "possession_lost": 8.3343, "dispossessed": 0.1582, "duels_lost": 3.8363, "aerial_lost": 1.7229, "total_contest": 0.6675, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3513, "challenges_lost": 0.8527, "fouls": 0.4626, "fouls_drawn": 0.7663, "blocks": 0.1345, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9205, "goals_prevented": 0.056, "rating": 7.0422, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.4674, "accurate_pass": 29.3376, "total_long_balls": 14.2225, "accurate_long_balls": 5.389, "touches": 45.7434, "clearances": 0.7545, "ball_recovery": 7.1684, "high_claims": 0.707, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1437, "sweeper_actions": 1.0987, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0987, "saves_inside_box": 1.3357, "possession_lost": 9.3268, "duels_won": 0.366, "duels_lost": 0.0361, "total_contest": 0.0348, "won_contest": 0.0348, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1857, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4288 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9216, "goals_prevented": 0.056, "rating": 7.0422, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.4674, "accurate_pass": 29.3376, "total_long_balls": 14.2225, "accurate_long_balls": 5.389, "touches": 45.7434, "clearances": 0.7545, "ball_recovery": 7.1684, "high_claims": 0.707, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1437, "sweeper_actions": 1.0987, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0987, "saves_inside_box": 1.3357, "possession_lost": 9.3268, "duels_won": 0.366, "duels_lost": 0.0361, "total_contest": 0.0348, "won_contest": 0.0348, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1831, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4288 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. A Coruña" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9216, "goals_prevented": 0.056, "rating": 7.0422, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.4674, "accurate_pass": 29.3376, "total_long_balls": 14.2225, "accurate_long_balls": 5.389, "touches": 45.7434, "clearances": 0.7545, "ball_recovery": 7.1684, "high_claims": 0.707, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1437, "sweeper_actions": 1.0987, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0987, "saves_inside_box": 1.3357, "possession_lost": 9.3268, "duels_won": 0.366, "duels_lost": 0.0361, "total_contest": 0.0348, "won_contest": 0.0348, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1831, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4288 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9216, "goals_prevented": 0.056, "rating": 7.0422, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.4674, "accurate_pass": 29.3376, "total_long_balls": 14.2225, "accurate_long_balls": 5.389, "touches": 45.7434, "clearances": 0.7545, "ball_recovery": 7.1684, "high_claims": 0.707, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1437, "sweeper_actions": 1.0987, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0987, "saves_inside_box": 1.3357, "possession_lost": 9.3268, "duels_won": 0.366, "duels_lost": 0.0361, "total_contest": 0.0348, "won_contest": 0.0348, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1831, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4288, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2633, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2633 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9216, "goals_prevented": 0.056, "rating": 7.0422, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.4674, "accurate_pass": 29.3376, "total_long_balls": 14.2225, "accurate_long_balls": 5.389, "touches": 45.7434, "clearances": 0.7545, "ball_recovery": 7.1684, "high_claims": 0.707, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1437, "sweeper_actions": 1.0987, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0987, "saves_inside_box": 1.3357, "possession_lost": 9.3268, "duels_won": 0.366, "duels_lost": 0.0361, "total_contest": 0.0348, "won_contest": 0.0348, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1831, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4288, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2633, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9216, "goals_prevented": 0.056, "rating": 7.0422, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.4674, "accurate_pass": 29.3376, "total_long_balls": 14.2225, "accurate_long_balls": 5.389, "touches": 45.7434, "clearances": 0.7545, "ball_recovery": 7.1684, "high_claims": 0.707, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1437, "sweeper_actions": 1.0987, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0987, "saves_inside_box": 1.3357, "possession_lost": 9.3268, "duels_won": 0.366, "duels_lost": 0.0361, "total_contest": 0.0348, "won_contest": 0.0348, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1831, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4288, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2633, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9216, "goals_prevented": 0.056, "rating": 7.0422, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.4674, "accurate_pass": 29.3376, "total_long_balls": 14.2225, "accurate_long_balls": 5.389, "touches": 45.7434, "clearances": 0.7545, "ball_recovery": 7.1684, "high_claims": 0.707, "punches": 0.4476, "aerial_won": 0.1437, "sweeper_actions": 1.0987, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0987, "saves_inside_box": 1.3357, "possession_lost": 9.3268, "duels_won": 0.366, "duels_lost": 0.0361, "total_contest": 0.0348, "won_contest": 0.0348, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1831, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4288, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2633, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"effective_weight": 0.1579, "runner_up": "Mario Soriano", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1492, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Luismi Cruz": { "player_id": 966526, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 166, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1456, "goal_rate": 0.1136, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1269, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 9.1349, "dispossessed": 0.6948, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1061, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "expected_assists": 0.1841, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "expected_assists": 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"name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": -0.0591, "total": 1.1369, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.206826 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133464 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.085422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.029928 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024478 } ], "others_margin": -0.059063 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.224616527557373, "model_output": 7.2246, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1041 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": 0.045, "total": 7.2246, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.14084 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.104143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02919 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023234 } ], "others_margin": 0.044969 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1386, "assists": 0.1097, "assist_rate": 0.1097, "expected_goals": 0.053, "goals": 0.084, "goal_rate": 0.084, "shots_on_target": 0.2613, "total_shots": 1.1323, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6824, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.3549, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9612, "tackles_won": 0.5446, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.9052, "fouls_drawn": 1.4449, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1333, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.871 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0417)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1386, "assists": 0.1206, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "expected_goals": 0.053, "goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.0805, "shots_on_target": 0.2504, "total_shots": 1.1311, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6015, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.3549, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9366, "tackles_won": 0.5528, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.8829, "fouls_drawn": 1.431, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1333, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.871 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0417, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9271, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. A Coruña" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6824, "after": 2.6015 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9612, "after": 0.9366 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9052, "after": 0.8829 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4449, "after": 1.431 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1097, "after": 0.1206 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2613, "after": 0.2504 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5446, "after": 0.5528 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1386, "assists": 0.1206, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "expected_goals": 0.053, "goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.0805, "shots_on_target": 0.2504, "total_shots": 1.1311, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6015, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.3549, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9366, "tackles_won": 0.5528, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.8829, "fouls_drawn": 1.431, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1333, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.871 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1386, "assists": 0.1206, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0722, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "shots_on_target": 0.2246, "total_shots": 1.0147, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6015, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9366, "tackles_won": 0.5528, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.8829, "fouls_drawn": 1.431, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1196, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.7814, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrián de la Fuente", "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "skill_edge": -0.01, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4695, "defender_skill": 0.4918, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4918 } ], "xg_override": 0.0475 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3549, "after": 0.6 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1311, "after": 1.0147 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.871, "after": 0.7814 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2504, "after": 0.2246 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1333, "after": 0.1196 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0805, "after": 0.0722 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.053, "after": 0.0475 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1386, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2246, "total_shots": 1.0147, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6015, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9366, "tackles_won": 0.5528, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.8829, "fouls_drawn": 1.431, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1196, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.7814, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrián de la Fuente", "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1649, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0566, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2246, "total_shots": 1.0147, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6015, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9366, "tackles_won": 0.5528, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.8829, "fouls_drawn": 1.431, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1425, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.7814, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrián de la Fuente", "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9046 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0475, "after": 0.0566 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1386, "after": 0.1649 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1649, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0566, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2246, "total_shots": 1.0147, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6015, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9366, "tackles_won": 0.5528, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.8829, "fouls_drawn": 1.431, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1425, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.7814, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrián de la Fuente", "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9046, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3373, "fifa_rank": 2409.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1649, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0566, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2246, "total_shots": 1.0147, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4991, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8134, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5591, "crosses_total": 2.6015, "crosses_accurate": 0.9443, "touches": 74.4225, "possession_lost": 9.4754, "dispossessed": 1.437, "duels_lost": 2.7209, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9366, "tackles_won": 0.5528, "tackles": 1.2942, "clearances": 0.4505, "total_contest": 0.5376, "won_contest": 0.5376, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.8829, "fouls_drawn": 1.431, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.6474, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1425, "ball_carries": 26.0965, "total_progression": 62.7475, "progressive_carries": 0.822, "shots_off_target": 0.7814, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrián de la Fuente", "opponent_faced": "Adrián de la Fuente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.055, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9046, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.055, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "scorer_weight": 0.0707, "squad_weight_total": 1.1945, "weight_share": 0.0592, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.2647, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2647, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2571 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.827, "expected_assists": 0.1649, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0566, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2246, "total_shots": 1.0147, "rating": 7.2246, "minutes": 83.44, "total_pass": 61.0515, "accurate_pass": 56.3725, "duels_won": 3.4117, "total_long_balls": 6.3465, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03916 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.024249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.024159 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.020799 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020181 } ], "others_margin": -0.030792 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2265, "goal_rate": 0.2213, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6256, "total_shots": 1.8948, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.6809, "rating": 6.7276, "minutes": 73.37, "total_pass": 13.7599, "accurate_pass": 10.6049, "duels_won": 6.3495, "total_long_balls": 0.5467, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4492, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6179, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2122, "crosses_total": 0.4167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0976, "touches": 33.3379, "possession_lost": 10.7578, "dispossessed": 2.5912, "duels_lost": 8.6684, "aerial_lost": 2.7609, "total_contest": 3.144, "won_contest": 1.312, "ball_recovery": 2.4958, "challenges_lost": 0.6521, "fouls": 0.8644, "fouls_drawn": 0.8647, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9451, "tackles": 1.3033, "clearances": 0.7715, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.2125, "xgot": 0.0524, "offsides": 0.4822, "ball_carries": 8.5209, "total_progression": 19.1739, "progressive_carries": 1.3803, "shots_off_target": 1.2692, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9666, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2698, "goal_rate": 0.2213, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6256, "total_shots": 1.8948, "expected_assists": 0.0512, "key_pass": 0.6809, "rating": 6.7276, "minutes": 73.37, "total_pass": 13.7599, "accurate_pass": 10.6049, "duels_won": 6.3495, "total_long_balls": 0.5467, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4492, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6179, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2122, "crosses_total": 0.4167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0976, "touches": 33.3379, "possession_lost": 10.7578, "dispossessed": 2.5912, "duels_lost": 8.6684, "aerial_lost": 2.7609, "total_contest": 3.144, "won_contest": 1.312, "ball_recovery": 2.4958, "challenges_lost": 0.6521, "fouls": 0.8644, "fouls_drawn": 0.8647, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9451, "tackles": 1.3033, "clearances": 0.7715, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.2125, "xgot": 0.0624, "offsides": 0.4822, "ball_carries": 8.5209, "total_progression": 19.1739, "progressive_carries": 1.3803, "shots_off_target": 1.2692, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9666, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9812, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2265, "after": 0.2698 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.043, "after": 0.0512 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.07034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.053416 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.03802 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.026545 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021823 } ], "others_margin": 0.006789 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goal_rate": 0.2243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5659, "total_shots": 1.7644, "expected_assists": 0.1212, "key_pass": 1.5142, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 77.42, "total_pass": 20.1909, "accurate_pass": 17.481, "duels_won": 4.4418, "total_long_balls": 0.2251, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2251, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1621, "crosses_total": 1.6676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5882, "touches": 35.0438, "possession_lost": 8.1962, "dispossessed": 1.5396, "duels_lost": 4.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.3252, "total_contest": 3.6627, "won_contest": 2.1254, "ball_recovery": 2.8858, "challenges_lost": 0.3612, "fouls": 0.2781, "fouls_drawn": 0.7799, "assist_rate": 0.1372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7454, "tackles_won": 1.2436, "tackles": 1.5465, "clearances": 0.0999, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1382, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2184, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 11.5771, "total_progression": 53.0455, "progressive_carries": 2.0458, "shots_off_target": 1.1985, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0535, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.236, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.22, "goal_rate": 0.2243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5659, "total_shots": 1.7644, "expected_assists": 0.1444, "key_pass": 1.5142, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 77.42, "total_pass": 20.1909, "accurate_pass": 17.481, "duels_won": 4.4418, "total_long_balls": 0.2251, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2251, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0835, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1621, "crosses_total": 1.6676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5882, "touches": 35.0438, "possession_lost": 8.1962, "dispossessed": 1.5396, "duels_lost": 4.0433, "aerial_lost": 0.3252, "total_contest": 3.6627, "won_contest": 2.1254, "ball_recovery": 2.8858, "challenges_lost": 0.3612, "fouls": 0.2781, "fouls_drawn": 0.7799, "assist_rate": 0.1372, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7454, "tackles_won": 1.2436, "tackles": 1.5465, "clearances": 0.0999, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1382, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2602, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 11.5771, "total_progression": 53.0455, "progressive_carries": 2.0458, "shots_off_target": 1.1985, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0535, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.236, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "opponent_faced": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Jeremy Toljan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1687, "creation_factor": 1.0935 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1847, "after": 0.22 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1212, "after": 0.1444 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"others_margin": -0.119307 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19492864608764648, "model_output": 0.1949, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2457 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0404, "total": 0.1949, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.245734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084948 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.048472 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", 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-0.072334 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.26334071159362793, "model_output": 0.2633, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1959 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0762 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.2633, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.195855 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076181 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.039886 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 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"contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0258 } ], "others": -0.1858, "total": 0.1345, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.346061 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.218707 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.045372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039219 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025773 } ], "others_margin": -0.185931 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.771483898162842, "model_output": 6.7715, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2458, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.031, "shots_on_target": 0.0559, "total_shots": 0.1271, "rating": 6.7715, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 44.8957, "accurate_pass": 40.3147, "duels_won": 5.2147, "total_long_balls": 2.2412, "accurate_long_balls": 1.416, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.5223, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7925, "crosses_total": 0.5104, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.8712, "possession_lost": 7.1775, "dispossessed": 0.59, "duels_lost": 4.7138, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "aerial_lost": 1.0188, "interceptions": 0.6951, "tackles_won": 1.3366, "tackles": 2.6317, "clearances": 2.2048, "total_contest": 0.8533, "won_contest": 0.2864, "challenges_lost": 0.8776, "fouls": 1.8021, "fouls_drawn": 1.1481, "blocks": 0.5668, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8073, "total_progression": 76.4649, "progressive_carries": 0.6668, "shots_off_target": 0.0712, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.32 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2458, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "goal_rate": 0.031, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0559, "total_shots": 0.1271, "rating": 6.7715, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 44.8957, "accurate_pass": 40.3147, "duels_won": 5.2147, "total_long_balls": 2.2412, "accurate_long_balls": 1.416, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.5223, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7925, "crosses_total": 0.5104, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.8712, "possession_lost": 7.1775, "dispossessed": 0.59, "duels_lost": 4.7138, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "aerial_lost": 1.0188, "interceptions": 0.6951, "tackles_won": 1.3366, "tackles": 2.6317, "clearances": 2.2048, "total_contest": 0.8533, "won_contest": 0.2864, "challenges_lost": 0.8776, "fouls": 1.8021, "fouls_drawn": 1.1481, "blocks": 0.5668, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8073, "total_progression": 76.4649, "progressive_carries": 0.6668, "shots_off_target": 0.0712, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.515, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2458, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "goal_rate": 0.031, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0559, "total_shots": 0.1271, "rating": 6.7715, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 44.8957, "accurate_pass": 40.3147, "duels_won": 5.2147, "total_long_balls": 2.2412, "accurate_long_balls": 1.416, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.5223, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7925, "crosses_total": 0.5104, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.8712, "possession_lost": 7.1775, "dispossessed": 0.59, "duels_lost": 4.7138, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "aerial_lost": 1.0188, "interceptions": 0.6951, "tackles_won": 1.3366, "tackles": 2.6317, "clearances": 2.2048, "total_contest": 0.8533, "won_contest": 0.2864, "challenges_lost": 0.8776, "fouls": 1.8021, "fouls_drawn": 1.1481, "blocks": 0.5668, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8073, "total_progression": 76.4649, "progressive_carries": 0.6668, "shots_off_target": 0.0712, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3910, "fifa_rank": 3530.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9955, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0537, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.322, "total_shots": 0.6836, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3135, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 18.96, "total_pass": 6.3358, "accurate_pass": 5.5619, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9666, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5796, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6919, "possession_lost": 1.1029, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9823, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.3289, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7159, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.2796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3289, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6578, "clearances": 0.387, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.23, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0271, "total_progression": 5.9814, "progressive_carries": 0.6085, "shots_off_target": 0.3616 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9955, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3085, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.43, "projection_minutes": 18.96, "minutes_scale": 1.3412, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3085, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3085, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2076, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0707, "after": 0.0476 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0441, "after": 0.0297 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2076, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5662, "fifa_rank": 6954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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{ "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.2647, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2647, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2571 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0486, "total": 6.6718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070634 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018826 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01562 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013652 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01354 } ], "others_margin": -0.048543 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0525, "goals": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "shots_on_target": 0.1937, "total_shots": 0.6283, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3182, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 6.3974, "accurate_pass": 5.2995, "duels_won": 1.9988, "total_long_balls": 0.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1612, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6825, "crosses_total": 2.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4268, "touches": 14.9263, "possession_lost": 5.8645, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.1709, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 1.823, "won_contest": 1.0179, "ball_recovery": 0.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.726, "fouls_drawn": 0.6504, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2186, "tackles": 0.2186, "clearances": 0.1699, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1545, "big_chances_missed": 0.0573, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 6.4101, "total_progression": 52.5165, "progressive_carries": 2.1565, "shots_off_target": 0.4345 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.42, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.0997, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0577, "after": 0.0388 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0426, "after": 0.0287 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6326, "fifa_rank": 8353.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "scorer_weight": 0.0406, "squad_weight_total": 1.1945, "weight_share": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.2647, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2647, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2571 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.023, "squad_weight_total": 0.7859, "weight_share": 0.0292, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.1579, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1579, "runner_up": "Mario Soriano", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1492, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { "player_id": 1146545, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 182, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2076, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0457, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0289, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9955, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0537, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.322, "total_shots": 0.6836, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3135, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 18.96, "total_pass": 6.3358, "accurate_pass": 5.5619, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9666, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5796, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6919, "possession_lost": 1.1029, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9823, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.3289, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7159, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.2796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3289, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6578, "clearances": 0.387, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.23, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0271, "total_progression": 5.9814, "progressive_carries": 0.6085, "shots_off_target": 0.3616 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9955, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3085, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.43, "projection_minutes": 18.96, "minutes_scale": 1.3412, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3085, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3085, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2076, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0707, "after": 0.0476 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0441, "after": 0.0297 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2076, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5662, "fifa_rank": 6954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2076, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0457, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.072, "scorer_weight": 0.0481, "squad_weight_total": 1.1945, "weight_share": 0.0403, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.2647, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2647, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2571 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4319, "total_shots": 0.9169, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.4205, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.4976, "accurate_pass": 7.4596, "duels_won": 1.3235, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.801, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9988, "possession_lost": 1.4792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6587, "aerial_lost": 0.3289, "total_contest": 0.4411, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9602, "challenges_lost": 1.0449, "fouls": 0.375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8822, "clearances": 0.519, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2076, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0599, "total_progression": 8.0222, "progressive_carries": 0.8161, "shots_off_target": 0.485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0457, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0289, "finishing_factor": 1.0108, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0289, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0238, "squad_weight_total": 0.7859, "weight_share": 0.0302, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.1579, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1579, "runner_up": "Mario Soriano", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1492, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Adama Traoré": { "player_id": 286165, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 178, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, 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0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023945, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "West Ham United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025029, "match_date": "2026-04-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0486, "total": 6.6718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070634 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018826 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01562 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013652 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01354 } ], "others_margin": -0.048543 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0525, "goals": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "shots_on_target": 0.1937, "total_shots": 0.6283, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.3182, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 6.3974, "accurate_pass": 5.2995, "duels_won": 1.9988, "total_long_balls": 0.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1612, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6825, "crosses_total": 2.1114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4268, "touches": 14.9263, "possession_lost": 5.8645, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.1709, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 1.823, "won_contest": 1.0179, "ball_recovery": 0.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.726, "fouls_drawn": 0.6504, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2186, "tackles": 0.2186, "clearances": 0.1699, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1545, "big_chances_missed": 0.0573, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 6.4101, "total_progression": 52.5165, "progressive_carries": 2.1565, "shots_off_target": 0.4345 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.42, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.0997, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.0140, xG scale 1.1913, xA scale 1.1913, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.208, "squad_xg_sum": 1.014, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6883, "team_expected_assists": 0.8199, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1913, "xa_scale": 1.1913, "opponent_lambda": 1.263, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0577, "after": 0.0388 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0426, "after": 0.0287 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6326, "fifa_rank": 8353.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "scorer_weight": 0.0406, "squad_weight_total": 1.1945, "weight_share": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.2647, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2647, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2571 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3499, "rating": 6.6718, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 7.035, "accurate_pass": 5.8277, "duels_won": 2.198, "total_long_balls": 0.2699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0495, "crosses_total": 2.3218, "crosses_accurate": 0.4693, "touches": 16.4139, "possession_lost": 6.449, "dispossessed": 1.287, "duels_lost": 3.4869, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 2.0047, "won_contest": 1.1193, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.0554, "fouls": 0.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1699, "big_chances_missed": 0.063, "xgot": 0.0007, "offsides": 0.0772, "ball_carries": 7.049, "total_progression": 57.7506, "progressive_carries": 2.3714, "shots_off_target": 0.4778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.473, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 1.0474, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.023, "squad_weight_total": 0.7859, "weight_share": 0.0292, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.1579, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1579, "runner_up": "Mario Soriano", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1492, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.21, "expected_assists": 0.82, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 409, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } }, "Levante": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Iván Romero": { "player_id": 1014042, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 172, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.281, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2722, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.245, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.067, "finishing_factor": 1.2085, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1952, "expected_assists": 0.159, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, 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"match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.3677, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1333, "expected_assists": 0.1303, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1956 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": -0.0103, "total": 0.7057, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.255011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065453 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050662 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.042271 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.035249 } ], "others_margin": -0.014461 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.042396545410156, "model_output": 7.0424, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0989 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0685 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": 0.0306, "total": 7.0424, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.098872 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068453 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.027194 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.026627 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023568 } ], "others_margin": 0.03068 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2993, "goals": 0.3767, "goal_rate": 0.3767, "shots_on_target": 0.9018, "total_shots": 2.0603, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0378, "fouls_drawn": 2.0205, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "interceptions": 0.4955, "tackles_won": 0.6595, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.4337, "xgot": 0.2902, "offsides": 0.1322, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1585 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0123)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2993, "goals": 0.3721, "goal_rate": 0.3721, "shots_on_target": 0.899, "total_shots": 2.0723, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0374, "fouls_drawn": 2.0121, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "interceptions": 0.4894, "tackles_won": 0.6596, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.4337, "xgot": 0.2902, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1585 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0123, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.835, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0603, "after": 2.0723 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.0205, "after": 2.0121 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4955, "after": 0.4894 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2993, "goals": 0.3721, "goal_rate": 0.3721, "shots_on_target": 0.899, "total_shots": 2.0723, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0374, "fouls_drawn": 2.0121, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "interceptions": 0.4894, "tackles_won": 0.6596, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.4337, "xgot": 0.2902, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1585 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.303, "goals": 0.3766, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "shots_on_target": 0.91, "total_shots": 2.0976, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0374, "fouls_drawn": 2.0121, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "interceptions": 0.4894, "tackles_won": 0.6596, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.439, "xgot": 0.2937, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "skill_edge": 0.0243, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4915, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "market_value": 95000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.303 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0723, "after": 2.0976 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1585, "after": 1.1726 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.899, "after": 0.91 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4337, "after": 0.439 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.91, "total_shots": 2.0976, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0374, "fouls_drawn": 2.0121, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4894, "tackles_won": 0.6596, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.439, "xgot": 0.2937, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.281, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.91, "total_shots": 2.0976, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0374, "fouls_drawn": 2.0121, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4894, "tackles_won": 0.6596, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.439, "xgot": 0.2722, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2085, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.303, "after": 0.281 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0594, "after": 0.0693 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.281, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.91, "total_shots": 2.0976, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0374, "fouls_drawn": 2.0121, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4894, "tackles_won": 0.6596, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.439, "xgot": 0.2722, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2085, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3447, "fifa_rank": 2411.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.281, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.91, "total_shots": 2.0976, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 34.7335, "possession_lost": 11.4123, "dispossessed": 1.569, "duels_lost": 6.2556, "aerial_lost": 1.6164, "total_contest": 2.5016, "won_contest": 1.1297, "ball_recovery": 2.8657, "challenges_lost": 0.7787, "fouls": 1.0374, "fouls_drawn": 2.0121, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4894, "tackles_won": 0.6596, "tackles": 1.4748, "clearances": 0.3046, "blocks": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1652, "big_chances_missed": 0.439, "xgot": 0.2722, "offsides": 0.1347, "ball_carries": 11.2687, "total_progression": 27.2286, "progressive_carries": 1.2602, "shots_off_target": 1.1726, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.245, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2085, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.245, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "scorer_weight": 0.3396, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.2326, "finishing_factor": 1.2085, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.281, "goal_rate": 0.3766, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.91, "total_shots": 2.0976, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "key_pass": 0.7054, "rating": 7.0424, "minutes": 75.15, "total_pass": 17.538, "accurate_pass": 13.0293, "duels_won": 5.696, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5015, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6353, "crosses_total": 0.4373, "crosses_accurate": 0.0343, "touches": 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0.6894498467445374, "model_output": 0.6894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0321 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.6894, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.243118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066057 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.051235 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9966, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2946, "goals": 0.3409, "goal_rate": 0.3409, "shots_on_target": 0.845, "total_shots": 2.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "key_pass": 0.6871, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 17.1498, "accurate_pass": 13.466, "duels_won": 4.0691, "total_long_balls": 1.0412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5515, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7244, "crosses_total": 1.622, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 31.8577, "possession_lost": 8.9019, "dispossessed": 0.7733, "duels_lost": 5.2191, "aerial_lost": 1.6432, "total_contest": 1.5556, "won_contest": 0.5433, "ball_recovery": 2.632, "challenges_lost": 1.025, "fouls": 0.8821, "fouls_drawn": 1.0791, "assists": 0.1885, "assist_rate": 0.1885, "interceptions": 0.1776, "tackles_won": 0.8707, "tackles": 1.3717, "clearances": 0.9579, "blocks": 0.169, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "big_chances_missed": 0.3119, "xgot": 0.3742, "offsides": 0.1898, "ball_carries": 10.3883, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.9063, "shots_off_target": 1.2149 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9966, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2946, "goals": 0.3409, "goal_rate": 0.3409, "shots_on_target": 0.845, "total_shots": 2.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "key_pass": 0.6871, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 17.1498, "accurate_pass": 13.466, "duels_won": 4.0691, "total_long_balls": 1.0412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5515, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7244, 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0.0601, "key_pass": 0.6871, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 17.1498, "accurate_pass": 13.466, "duels_won": 4.0691, "total_long_balls": 1.0412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5515, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7244, "crosses_total": 1.622, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 31.8577, "possession_lost": 8.9019, "dispossessed": 0.7733, "duels_lost": 5.2191, "aerial_lost": 1.6432, "total_contest": 1.5556, "won_contest": 0.5433, "ball_recovery": 2.632, "challenges_lost": 1.025, "fouls": 0.8821, "fouls_drawn": 1.0791, "assists": 0.1885, "assist_rate": 0.1885, "interceptions": 0.1776, "tackles_won": 0.8707, "tackles": 1.3717, "clearances": 0.9579, "blocks": 0.169, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "big_chances_missed": 0.2718, "xgot": 0.326, "offsides": 0.1898, "ball_carries": 10.3883, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.9063, "shots_off_target": 1.0585, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8713, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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"market_value": 5800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4955 } ], "xg_override": 0.2567 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0599, "after": 1.7948 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2149, "after": 1.0585 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.845, "after": 0.7362 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3742, "after": 0.326 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3409, "after": 0.297 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3119, "after": 0.2718 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2946, "after": 0.2567 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2567, "goal_rate": 0.297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7362, "total_shots": 1.7948, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "key_pass": 0.6871, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 17.1498, "accurate_pass": 13.466, "duels_won": 4.0691, "total_long_balls": 1.0412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5515, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7244, "crosses_total": 1.622, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 31.8577, "possession_lost": 8.9019, "dispossessed": 0.7733, "duels_lost": 5.2191, "aerial_lost": 1.6432, "total_contest": 1.5556, "won_contest": 0.5433, "ball_recovery": 2.632, "challenges_lost": 1.025, "fouls": 0.8821, "fouls_drawn": 1.0791, "assist_rate": 0.1885, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1776, "tackles_won": 0.8707, "tackles": 1.3717, "clearances": 0.9579, "blocks": 0.169, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "big_chances_missed": 0.2718, "xgot": 0.326, "offsides": 0.1898, "ball_carries": 10.3883, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.9063, "shots_off_target": 1.0585, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8713, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bright Ede, José María Giménez", "opponent_faced": "Bright Ede, José María Giménez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2379, "goal_rate": 0.297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7362, "total_shots": 1.7948, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.6871, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 17.1498, "accurate_pass": 13.466, "duels_won": 4.0691, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2379, "goal_rate": 0.297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7362, "total_shots": 1.7948, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.6871, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 17.1498, "accurate_pass": 13.466, "duels_won": 4.0691, "total_long_balls": 1.0412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5515, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7244, "crosses_total": 1.622, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 31.8577, "possession_lost": 8.9019, "dispossessed": 0.7733, "duels_lost": 5.2191, "aerial_lost": 1.6432, "total_contest": 1.5556, "won_contest": 0.5433, "ball_recovery": 2.632, "challenges_lost": 1.025, "fouls": 0.8821, "fouls_drawn": 1.0791, "assist_rate": 0.1885, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1776, "tackles_won": 0.8707, "tackles": 1.3717, "clearances": 0.9579, "blocks": 0.169, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "big_chances_missed": 0.2718, 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"fifa_rank": 28.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2379, "goal_rate": 0.297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7362, "total_shots": 1.7948, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.6871, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 83.07, "total_pass": 17.1498, "accurate_pass": 13.466, "duels_won": 4.0691, "total_long_balls": 1.0412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5515, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7244, "crosses_total": 1.622, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 31.8577, "possession_lost": 8.9019, "dispossessed": 0.7733, "duels_lost": 5.2191, "aerial_lost": 1.6432, "total_contest": 1.5556, "won_contest": 0.5433, "ball_recovery": 2.632, "challenges_lost": 1.025, "fouls": 0.8821, "fouls_drawn": 1.0791, 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"name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 6.7874, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059683 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027883 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009491 } ], "others_margin": -0.025298 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.037, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "shots_on_target": 0.1691, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, "total_long_balls": 0.7982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4879, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1579, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.707, "possession_lost": 4.7243, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3.0923, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.6725, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.8967, "won_contest": 0.2241, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 1.1208, "fouls_drawn": 0.4147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1982, "total_progression": 30.4353, "progressive_carries": 0.6205, "shots_off_target": 0.4492 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.037, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "shots_on_target": 0.1691, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, "total_long_balls": 0.7982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4879, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1579, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.707, "possession_lost": 4.7243, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3.0923, "aerial_won": 0.3103, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.6725, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.8967, "won_contest": 0.2241, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 1.1208, "fouls_drawn": 0.4147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1982, "total_progression": 30.4353, "progressive_carries": 0.6205, "shots_off_target": 0.4492 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.037, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.18, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, "total_long_balls": 0.7982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4879, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1579, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.707, "possession_lost": 4.7243, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3.0923, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.6725, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.8967, "won_contest": 0.2241, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 1.1208, "fouls_drawn": 0.4147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1982, "total_progression": 30.4353, "progressive_carries": 0.6205, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Riki Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Riki Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Riki Rodríguez", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": 0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Riki Rodríguez", "market_value": 1400000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0435 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3103, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6183, "after": 0.6583 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4492, "after": 0.4783 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1691, "after": 0.18 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.18, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, "total_long_balls": 0.7982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4879, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1579, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.707, "possession_lost": 4.7243, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3.0923, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.6725, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.8967, "won_contest": 0.2241, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 1.1208, "fouls_drawn": 0.4147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1982, "total_progression": 30.4353, "progressive_carries": 0.6205, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Riki Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Riki Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.18, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, "total_long_balls": 0.7982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4879, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1579, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.707, "possession_lost": 4.7243, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3.0923, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.6725, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.8967, "won_contest": 0.2241, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 1.1208, "fouls_drawn": 0.4147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1982, "total_progression": 30.4353, "progressive_carries": 0.6205, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Riki Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Riki Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2011, "creation_factor": 1.046 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.037, "after": 0.0431 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.18, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, "total_long_balls": 0.7982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4879, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1579, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.707, "possession_lost": 4.7243, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3.0923, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.6725, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.8967, "won_contest": 0.2241, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 1.1208, "fouls_drawn": 0.4147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1982, "total_progression": 30.4353, "progressive_carries": 0.6205, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Riki Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Riki Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2011, "creation_factor": 1.046, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 343, "fifa_rank": 215.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.18, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, "total_long_balls": 0.7982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4879, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1579, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.707, "possession_lost": 4.7243, "dispossessed": 0.3103, "duels_lost": 3.0923, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.6725, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.8967, "won_contest": 0.2241, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 1.1208, "fouls_drawn": 0.4147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1982, "total_progression": 30.4353, "progressive_carries": 0.6205, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Riki Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Riki Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0395, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2011, "creation_factor": 1.046, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "scorer_weight": 0.0484, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0332, "finishing_factor": 1.2011, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5513, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.18, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.7874, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 15.0494, "accurate_pass": 12.6534, "duels_won": 1.6217, 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"starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goals": 0.0023, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "assists": 0.0224, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "expected_goals": 0.0043, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goals": 0.0023, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "assists": 0.0224, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "expected_goals": 0.0043, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goals": 0.0023, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "assists": 0.0224, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "expected_goals": 0.0043, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0043, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0691, "after": 0.0806 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2393, "fifa_rank": 1230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.004, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.004, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "scorer_weight": 0.0039, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0026, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8684, "tackles": 2.8561, "tackles_won": 1.8111, "clearances": 3.0724, "aerial_won": 0.9739, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 41.0678, "accurate_pass": 34.6781, "duels_won": 6.5612, "total_long_balls": 5.6037, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5022, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.605, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2034, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.073, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.3499, "touches": 65.6494, "possession_lost": 11.1373, "dispossessed": 0.5693, "duels_lost": 6.3769, "aerial_lost": 1.6694, "total_contest": 1.7195, "won_contest": 0.8353, "ball_recovery": 3.8116, "challenges_lost": 2.3274, "fouls": 0.9449, "fouls_drawn": 1.0551, "blocks": 0.533, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.004, "expected_assists": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.0512, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.0234, "total_progression": 68.7298, "progressive_carries": 1.0065, "key_pass": 0.3917, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.004, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0774, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0774, "assist_rate": 0.0224, "provider_weight": 0.0645, "squad_weight_total": 0.8138, "weight_share": 0.0792, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1375, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1375, "runner_up": "Thiago Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1112, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ifeanyi Ndukwe": { "player_id": 1929673, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 198, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.384, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1517, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0, 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"goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4263, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 296, "combined_rank_score": 201.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, 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"xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", 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"minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.082481 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.079246 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.069607 } ], "others_margin": -0.090795 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.554814338684082, "model_output": 0.5548, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0396, "total": 0.5548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049838 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.048437 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.020603 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.017818 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016707 } ], "others_margin": -0.039675 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.823309898376465, "model_output": 6.8233, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": 0.0173, "total": 6.8233, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.061158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012492 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.011767 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008996 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006584 } ], "others_margin": 0.017288 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9878, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2012, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0354, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4625, "aerial_lost": 2.4171, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2342, "challenges_lost": 0.6614, "fouls": 0.384, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.768, "goals": 0.384, "goal_rate": 0.384, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1637, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.352, "ball_carries": 18.4188, "total_progression": 160.4337, "progressive_carries": 3.0719, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1641 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9878, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2012, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0354, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4625, "aerial_lost": 2.4171, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2342, "challenges_lost": 0.6614, "fouls": 0.384, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.768, "goals": 0.384, "goal_rate": 0.384, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1637, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.352, "ball_carries": 18.4188, "total_progression": 160.4337, "progressive_carries": 3.0719, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1641 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2012, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0354, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4625, "aerial_lost": 2.4171, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2342, "challenges_lost": 0.6614, "fouls": 0.384, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.768, "goals": 0.384, "goal_rate": 0.384, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1637, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.352, "ball_carries": 18.4188, "total_progression": 160.4337, "progressive_carries": 3.0719, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1641, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2012, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0354, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4625, "aerial_lost": 2.4171, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2342, "challenges_lost": 0.6614, "fouls": 0.384, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.768, "goal_rate": 0.384, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1637, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.352, "ball_carries": 18.4188, "total_progression": 160.4337, "progressive_carries": 3.0719, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1641, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2012, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0354, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4625, "aerial_lost": 2.4171, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2342, "challenges_lost": 0.6614, "fouls": 0.384, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.768, "goal_rate": 0.384, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1517, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3262, "ball_carries": 18.4188, "total_progression": 160.4337, "progressive_carries": 3.0719, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1641, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9294 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1637, "after": 0.1517 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2012, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0354, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4625, "aerial_lost": 2.4171, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2342, "challenges_lost": 0.6614, "fouls": 0.384, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.768, "goal_rate": 0.384, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1517, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3262, "ball_carries": 18.4188, "total_progression": 160.4337, "progressive_carries": 3.0719, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1641, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9294, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 296, "fifa_rank": 199.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2012, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.0354, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4625, "aerial_lost": 2.4171, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2342, "challenges_lost": 0.6614, "fouls": 0.384, "fouls_drawn": 0.384, "blocks": 0.768, "goal_rate": 0.384, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1517, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3262, "ball_carries": 18.4188, "total_progression": 160.4337, "progressive_carries": 3.0719, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1641, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9294, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1408, "goal_rate": 0.384, "scorer_weight": 0.1896, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.1299, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2644, "tackles": 1.5907, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 4.8059, "aerial_won": 1.9695, "total_shots": 0.5481, "rating": 6.8233, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 41.0575, "accurate_pass": 35.8968, "duels_won": 3.8869, "total_long_balls": 2.0908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7679, "total_own_half_passes": 28.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0044, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9294, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0044, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0041, "squad_weight_total": 0.8138, "weight_share": 0.005, "creation_factor": 0.9294, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1375, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1375, "runner_up": "Thiago Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1112, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Adrián de la Fuente": { "player_id": 997244, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 178, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.116, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "shots_on_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2027, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 94, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.059916 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027597 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021928 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.019743 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.015482 } ], "others_margin": 0.004336 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2139, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8525, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3645, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5894, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0486, "fouls_drawn": 1.2802, "blocks": 0.2006, "goals": 0.3312, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "expected_goals": 0.1252, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "shots_on_target": 0.7804, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.2187, "ball_carries": 19.7189, "total_progression": 94.2808, "progressive_carries": 1.1284, "key_pass": 0.4604, "shots_off_target": 0.5841 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0475, "fouls_drawn": 1.2758, "blocks": 0.2006, "goals": 0.3311, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "expected_goals": 0.1252, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "shots_on_target": 0.7738, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.2187, "ball_carries": 19.7189, "total_progression": 94.2808, "progressive_carries": 1.1284, "key_pass": 0.4604, "shots_off_target": 0.5841 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9726, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8525, "after": 0.8449 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7804, "after": 0.7738 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0475, "fouls_drawn": 1.2758, "blocks": 0.2006, "goals": 0.3311, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "expected_goals": 0.1252, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "shots_on_target": 0.7738, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.2187, "ball_carries": 19.7189, "total_progression": 94.2808, "progressive_carries": 1.1284, "key_pass": 0.4604, "shots_off_target": 0.5841 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0475, "fouls_drawn": 1.2758, "blocks": 0.2006, "goals": 0.3311, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "expected_goals": 0.1252, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "shots_on_target": 0.7738, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.2187, "ball_carries": 19.7189, "total_progression": 94.2808, "progressive_carries": 1.1284, "key_pass": 0.4604, "shots_off_target": 0.5841, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0475, "fouls_drawn": 1.2758, "blocks": 0.2006, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1252, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "shots_on_target": 0.7738, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.2187, "ball_carries": 19.7189, "total_progression": 94.2808, "progressive_carries": 1.1284, "key_pass": 0.4604, "shots_off_target": 0.5841, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0475, "fouls_drawn": 1.2758, "blocks": 0.2006, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.116, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "shots_on_target": 0.7738, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.2027, "ball_carries": 19.7189, "total_progression": 94.2808, "progressive_carries": 1.1284, "key_pass": 0.4604, "shots_off_target": 0.5841, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1252, "after": 0.116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1006, "after": 0.1173 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0475, "fouls_drawn": 1.2758, "blocks": 0.2006, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.116, "expected_assists": 0.1173, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0212, "crosses_total": 1.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.3403, "touches": 71.4024, "possession_lost": 13.1454, "dispossessed": 0.1274, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.6984, "total_contest": 0.4279, "won_contest": 0.2318, "ball_recovery": 3.6138, "challenges_lost": 0.5447, "fouls": 1.0475, "fouls_drawn": 1.2758, "blocks": 0.2006, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.116, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "shots_on_target": 0.7738, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.2027, "ball_carries": 19.7189, "total_progression": 94.2808, "progressive_carries": 1.1284, "key_pass": 0.4604, "shots_off_target": 0.5841, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1095, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1095, "goal_rate": 0.3311, "scorer_weight": 0.145, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0993, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2104, "tackles": 1.427, "tackles_won": 0.8449, "clearances": 4.94, "aerial_won": 1.1262, "total_shots": 1.3683, "rating": 6.8898, "minutes": 87.53, "total_pass": 54.0905, "accurate_pass": 44.0944, "duels_won": 3.689, "total_long_balls": 13.3553, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8242, "total_own_half_passes": 31.6096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0732, 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"others_margin": 0.004972 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.056468963623047, "model_output": 7.0565, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 7.0565, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.016629 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013027 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010536 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.009776 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007252 } ], "others_margin": 0.022918 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9725, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0963, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2803 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0995, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2803 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9725, "after": 2.9954 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0995, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2803 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0995, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2803, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2084, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Yeremay Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Yeremay Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2084 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0995, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2803, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2084, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Yeremay Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0995, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2803, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2084, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Yeremay Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0995, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2803, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2084, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Yeremay Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1126, "fifa_rank": 948.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9954, "goals_prevented": -0.0494, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.2192, "accurate_pass": 26.6515, "total_long_balls": 13.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4533, "touches": 46.2489, "clearances": 1.2102, "ball_recovery": 8.6197, "high_claims": 1.4839, "punches": 0.6041, "aerial_won": 0.3315, "sweeper_actions": 0.7565, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7565, "saves_inside_box": 2.0958, "possession_lost": 7.7492, "duels_won": 0.4966, "duels_lost": 0.2215, 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"effective_weight": 0.1375, "runner_up": "Thiago Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1112, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Thiago Fernández": { "player_id": 1201412, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 175, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1949, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1062, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.79, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 9.4961, "dispossessed": 1.6248, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1447, "goals": 0.2018, "goal_rate": 0.2018, "shots_on_target": 0.4821, "total_shots": 1.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0911, "key_pass": 0.9101, "rating": 6.79, "minutes": 70.8, "total_pass": 18.393, "accurate_pass": 14.6263, "duels_won": 3.5996, "total_long_balls": 1.3588, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6676, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2821, "crosses_total": 1.7548, "crosses_accurate": 0.3521, "touches": 32.7015, "possession_lost": 9.4961, "dispossessed": 1.6248, "duels_lost": 4.8737, "aerial_lost": 0.4497, "total_contest": 3.2477, "won_contest": 2.2284, "ball_recovery": 2.7382, "challenges_lost": 1.4713, "fouls": 0.4132, "fouls_drawn": 0.4019, "assists": 0.099, "assist_rate": 0.099, "interceptions": 0.5193, "tackles_won": 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"interceptionWon", "before": 0.5193, "after": 0.5255 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4019, "after": 0.3965 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1447, "goals": 0.1991, "goal_rate": 0.1991, "shots_on_target": 0.4757, "total_shots": 1.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0911, "key_pass": 0.9101, "rating": 6.79, "minutes": 70.8, "total_pass": 18.393, "accurate_pass": 14.6263, "duels_won": 3.5996, "total_long_balls": 1.3588, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6676, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2821, "crosses_total": 1.7576, "crosses_accurate": 0.3521, "touches": 32.7015, "possession_lost": 9.4961, "dispossessed": 1.6248, "duels_lost": 4.8737, "aerial_lost": 0.4497, "total_contest": 3.2477, "won_contest": 2.2284, "ball_recovery": 2.7382, "challenges_lost": 1.4713, "fouls": 0.4142, "fouls_drawn": 0.3965, "assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "interceptions": 0.5255, "tackles_won": 0.808, "tackles": 0.8937, "clearances": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.099, "big_chances_missed": 0.1446, "xgot": 0.0688, "offsides": 0.2017, "ball_carries": 13.2872, "total_progression": 54.4644, "progressive_carries": 2.3198, "shots_off_target": 0.9828 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1416, "goals": 0.1949, "goal_rate": 0.1949, "shots_on_target": 0.4656, "total_shots": 1.4276, "expected_assists": 0.0911, "key_pass": 0.9101, "rating": 6.79, "minutes": 70.8, "total_pass": 18.393, "accurate_pass": 14.6263, "duels_won": 3.5996, "total_long_balls": 1.3588, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6676, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2821, "crosses_total": 1.7576, "crosses_accurate": 0.3521, "touches": 32.7015, "possession_lost": 9.4961, "dispossessed": 1.6248, "duels_lost": 4.8737, "aerial_lost": 0.4497, "total_contest": 3.2477, "won_contest": 2.2284, "ball_recovery": 2.7382, "challenges_lost": 1.4713, "fouls": 0.4142, "fouls_drawn": 0.3965, "assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "interceptions": 0.5255, "tackles_won": 0.808, "tackles": 0.8937, "clearances": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.099, "big_chances_missed": 0.1415, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 0.2017, "ball_carries": 13.2872, "total_progression": 54.4644, "progressive_carries": 2.3198, "shots_off_target": 0.962, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giacomo Quagliata", "opponent_faced": "Giacomo Quagliata", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Giacomo Quagliata", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "skill_edge": -0.0064, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.4585, "defender_skill": 0.4727, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4727 } ], "xg_override": 0.1416 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4585, "after": 1.4276 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9828, "after": 0.962 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4757, "after": 0.4656 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { 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0.1062, "key_pass": 0.9101, "rating": 6.79, "minutes": 70.8, "total_pass": 18.393, "accurate_pass": 14.6263, "duels_won": 3.5996, "total_long_balls": 1.3588, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6676, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2821, "crosses_total": 1.7576, "crosses_accurate": 0.3521, "touches": 32.7015, "possession_lost": 9.4961, "dispossessed": 1.6248, "duels_lost": 4.8737, "aerial_lost": 0.4497, "total_contest": 3.2477, "won_contest": 2.2284, "ball_recovery": 2.7382, "challenges_lost": 1.4713, "fouls": 0.4142, "fouls_drawn": 0.3965, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5255, "tackles_won": 0.808, "tackles": 0.8937, "clearances": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.099, "big_chances_missed": 0.1415, "xgot": 0.0624, "offsides": 0.2017, "ball_carries": 13.2872, "total_progression": 54.4644, "progressive_carries": 2.3198, "shots_off_target": 0.962, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 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changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1949, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4656, "total_shots": 1.4276, "expected_assists": 0.1062, "key_pass": 0.9101, "rating": 6.79, "minutes": 70.8, "total_pass": 18.393, "accurate_pass": 14.6263, "duels_won": 3.5996, "total_long_balls": 1.3588, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6676, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2821, "crosses_total": 1.7576, "crosses_accurate": 0.3521, "touches": 32.7015, "possession_lost": 9.4961, "dispossessed": 1.6248, "duels_lost": 4.8737, "aerial_lost": 0.4497, "total_contest": 3.2477, "won_contest": 2.2284, "ball_recovery": 2.7382, "challenges_lost": 1.4713, "fouls": 0.4142, "fouls_drawn": 0.3965, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5255, "tackles_won": 0.808, "tackles": 0.8937, "clearances": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.099, "big_chances_missed": 0.1415, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.657, "expected_assists": 0.0512, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.053, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "total_shots": 0.6302, "rating": 6.7182, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 8.4201, "accurate_pass": 6.7229, "duels_won": 1.3996, "total_long_balls": 0.7296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5081, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6365, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0863, "crosses_total": 1.6886, "crosses_accurate": 0.2961, "touches": 16.2224, "possession_lost": 5.708, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.4851, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2139, "tackles": 0.3122, "clearances": 0.16, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.0375, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.216166 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.145593 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.05599 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.052703 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04911 } ], "others_margin": -0.222852 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.32896724343299866, "model_output": 0.329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2304 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0374, "total": 0.329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.418858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.095019 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07787 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.062137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045346 } ], "others_margin": -0.107797 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.659010887145996, "model_output": 6.659, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.032, "total": 6.659, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011727 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011527 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009014 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.00861 } ], "others_margin": -0.031947 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0826, "goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1014, "shots_on_target": 0.3237, "total_shots": 0.8432, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 3.5122, "accurate_pass": 2.2405, "duels_won": 1.387, "total_long_balls": 0.1322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.856, "crosses_total": 0.2285, "crosses_accurate": 0.159, "touches": 8.1664, "possession_lost": 3.4817, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 2.5519, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.3116, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 0.7173, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.3331, "assists": 0.1815, "assist_rate": 0.1815, "interceptions": 0.1429, "tackles_won": 0.01, "tackles": 0.2026, "clearances": 0.0695, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1837, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 1.3521, "total_progression": 3.1728, "progressive_carries": 0.0266, "shots_off_target": 0.5195 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1239, "goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1239, "goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1239, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1239, "after": 0.0672 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0385 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "scorer_weight": 0.0781, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0535, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0841, "goals": 0.0584, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "shots_on_target": 0.2419, "total_shots": 0.5266, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "key_pass": 0.2485, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 21.72, "total_pass": 6.5276, "accurate_pass": 5.1238, "duels_won": 0.9501, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6775, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.116, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2198, "possession_lost": 4.9149, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1313, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2309, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6694, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2808, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6195, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2847 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0989, "goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 21.72, "minutes_scale": 1.1765, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0989, "goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0989, "after": 0.0523 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0159, "after": 0.0106 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "scorer_weight": 0.0418, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 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"provider_weight": 0.0085, "squad_weight_total": 0.8138, "weight_share": 0.0104, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1375, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1375, "runner_up": "Thiago Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1112, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Etta Eyong": { "player_id": 1393673, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 15600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, 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0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.032, "total": 6.659, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011727 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011527 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009014 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.00861 } ], "others_margin": -0.031947 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0826, "goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1014, "shots_on_target": 0.3237, "total_shots": 0.8432, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 3.5122, "accurate_pass": 2.2405, "duels_won": 1.387, "total_long_balls": 0.1322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.856, "crosses_total": 0.2285, "crosses_accurate": 0.159, "touches": 8.1664, "possession_lost": 3.4817, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 2.5519, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.3116, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 0.7173, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.3331, "assists": 0.1815, "assist_rate": 0.1815, "interceptions": 0.1429, "tackles_won": 0.01, "tackles": 0.2026, "clearances": 0.0695, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1837, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 1.3521, "total_progression": 3.1728, "progressive_carries": 0.0266, "shots_off_target": 0.5195 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1239, "goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1239, "goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1239, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1239, "after": 0.0672 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0385 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "scorer_weight": 0.0781, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0535, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4855, "total_shots": 1.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.495, "rating": 6.659, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.7792, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0635, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0373, "finishing_factor": 1.1622, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0373, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "provider_weight": 0.0481, "squad_weight_total": 0.8138, "weight_share": 0.0591, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1375, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1375, "runner_up": "Thiago Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1112, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1324, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.3, 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-0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0794, "total": 6.5796, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054898 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019321 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012671 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010587 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01046 } ], "others_margin": -0.079507 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0841, "goals": 0.0584, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "shots_on_target": 0.2419, "total_shots": 0.5266, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "key_pass": 0.2485, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 21.72, "total_pass": 6.5276, "accurate_pass": 5.1238, "duels_won": 0.9501, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6775, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.116, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2198, "possession_lost": 4.9149, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1313, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2309, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6694, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2808, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6195, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2847 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0989, "goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 21.72, "minutes_scale": 1.1765, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0989, "goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.3628, xG scale 0.9268, xA scale 1.1662, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.263, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3628, "squad_xa_sum": 0.704, "team_expected_assists": 0.8209, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9268, "xa_scale": 1.1662, "opponent_lambda": 1.208, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0989, "after": 0.0523 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0159, "after": 0.0106 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "scorer_weight": 0.0418, "squad_weight_total": 1.46, "weight_share": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3396, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3396, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2846, "total_shots": 0.6196, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2924, "rating": 6.5796, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 7.6798, "accurate_pass": 6.0282, "duels_won": 1.1178, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1501, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4895, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3767, "possession_lost": 5.7824, "dispossessed": 1.2309, "duels_lost": 3.684, "aerial_lost": 1.2309, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.6694, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7876, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9054, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.335, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0085, "squad_weight_total": 0.8138, "weight_share": 0.0104, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1375, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1375, "runner_up": "Thiago Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1112, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.26, "expected_assists": 0.82, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 348, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "xg_contribution": 0.0475, "xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yeremay Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.236, "xg_contribution": 0.1847, "xg_multiplier": 1.0535, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yeremay Hernández (ST) is evenly matched against Ifeanyi Ndukwe and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Luismi Cruz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1222, "xg_multiplier": 0.9066, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luismi Cruz (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ifeanyi Ndukwe and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2265, "xg_multiplier": 0.9666, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is evenly matched against Ifeanyi Ndukwe and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.226 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Riki Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Daniel Requena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "xg_contribution": 0.0688, "xg_multiplier": 0.9353, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Requena", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 } ], "duel_analysis": "Riki Rodríguez (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Daniel Requena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Diego Villares", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Daniel Requena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.0575, "xg_multiplier": 1.0, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Requena", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Villares (CDM) is evenly matched against Daniel Requena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "xg_contribution": 0.303, "xg_multiplier": 1.0122, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "RB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (LW) is evenly matched against Ximo Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.303 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Thiago Fernández", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.1416, "xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thiago Fernández (RW) is evenly matched against Giacomo Quagliata in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Roger Brugué", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Bright Ede", "José María Giménez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.474, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2567, "xg_multiplier": 0.8713, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bright Ede", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roger Brugué (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Bright Ede and José María Giménez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.257 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Riki Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.1226, "xg_multiplier": 1.0073, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Riki Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (CDM) is evenly matched against Riki Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Requena", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Riki Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "xg_contribution": 0.0435, "xg_multiplier": 1.0647, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Riki Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.506 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Requena (CM) is slightly favored against Riki Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Riki Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "xg_contribution": 0.0421, "xg_multiplier": 1.0, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Riki Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.55 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CM) is evenly matched against Riki Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.448, "away_midfield_power": 0.437, "home_creative_power": 0.428, "away_creative_power": 0.416, "home_defensive_power": 0.372, "away_defensive_power": 0.372, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.506, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Riki Rodríguez", "Diego Villares", "Mario Soriano" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Daniel Requena", "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Mario Soriano vs Jon Ander Olasagasti", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.006, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.003 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.208, "away_lambda": 1.263, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luismi Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Riki Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Requena", "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Diego Villares": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Requena" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ximo Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bright Ede": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ifeanyi Ndukwe": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Luismi Cruz", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremy Toljan": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Luismi Cruz", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Daniel Requena": { "opponents": [ "Riki Rodríguez", "Diego Villares" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Ximo Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thiago Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Bright Ede", "José María Giménez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Riki Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Riki Rodríguez", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Soriano vs Jon Ander Olasagasti will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.91. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.056, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.086, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0002, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0038, "home_midfield_factor": 1.006, "away_midfield_factor": 1.003, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4745, "away_avg_quality": 0.4521, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0224, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3074, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.4154, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.452, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0696, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7072, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8679 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.006, "result": 0.8731 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8644 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.994 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0311, "result": 1.0249 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.0359 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0002, "result": 1.0361 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.056, "result": 1.0921 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0921, "result": 1.0921, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0696, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0921, "result": 1.0921 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0921 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1164, "result": 1.2084 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.2084 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2084, "result": 1.208, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.208, "result": 1.208, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.208 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.208 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.208, "result": 1.208, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.208 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9095, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0196 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.003, "result": 1.0227 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.0534 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0534 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9624, "result": 1.0138 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9821, "result": 0.9956 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0038, "result": 0.9994 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.086, "result": 1.0854 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0854, "result": 1.0854, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0696, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0854, "result": 1.0854 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0854 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1783, "result": 1.2633 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.2633 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2633, "result": 1.263, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.263, "result": 1.263, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.263 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.263 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.263, "result": 1.263, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.263 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1164, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1783, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.208, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.263, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2084, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2633, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.208, "final_away_lambda": 1.263 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0311, "attack_index": 0.988, "defense_concede_index": 1.085, "form_multiplier": 1.012, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.53, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.68, "team_ppg": 1.3, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9624, "attack_index": 0.956, "defense_concede_index": 0.956, "form_multiplier": 0.988, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.48, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.48, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.3 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Deportivo vs Levante. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.208, Away 1.263). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.208, Away 1.263 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 6, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.208, "away_lambda": 1.263, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.208, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.263 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:24:43Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }