{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1386, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1334, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1356, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3128, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1386 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1369 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1356 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1334 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0688 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1386, "0-1": 0.1356, "0-2": 0.0688, "0-3": 0.023, "0-4": 0.0058, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.1334, "1-1": 0.1369, "1-2": 0.0678, "1-3": 0.0226, "1-4": 0.0057, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0666, "2-1": 0.0667, "2-2": 0.0334, "2-3": 0.0112, "2-4": 0.0028, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0219, "3-1": 0.0219, "3-2": 0.011, "3-3": 0.0037, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0054, "4-1": 0.0054, "4-2": 0.0027, "4-3": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3394, "draw": 0.3128, "away_win": 0.3478 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3201, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6799, "btts_yes": 0.3984, "btts_no": 0.6016, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3671, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3731 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.78, "GK": 6.92 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 6.95, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Valencia 3W-1D-6L vs Athletic Club over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Iñaki Williams (ST) — Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle [0.348 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Peio Canales will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 0.986, "away_lambda": 1.002, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9786, "away_multiplier": 1.0214 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1386, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3394, "draw": 0.3128, "away_win": 0.3478 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3478, "fair_spread": -0.016, "fair_total": 1.988, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 0.986, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.002, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3201, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3984, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3671, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3731, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Hugo Duro (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.3012, "probability": 0.2601, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iñaki Williams (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.3355, "probability": 0.285, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1305, "probability": 0.1223, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.1432, "probability": 0.1334, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.988, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 815, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.7, "possession_away_pct": 49.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3478, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.02 goals and fair total 1.99.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Athletic Club chance creation leans on Iñaki Williams against Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Diego López, Largie Ramazani.", "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Nico Williams, Mikel Jauregizar.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 0.99 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Valencia": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Hugo Duro": { "player_id": 909119, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3012, "goal_rate": 0.2591, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6266, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 7.0579, "dispossessed": 0.4263, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.1289, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0971, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9878, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.192, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez", "opponent_faced": "Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2601, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0283, "finishing_factor": 0.8305, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5497, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3599, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1376, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.215, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3231, "expected_assists": 0.031, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3220, "combined_rank_score": 1167.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 776.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6389, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6266, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 3215 }, { "player_name": "Eljif Elmas", "ranking": 3216 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking": 3218 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chris Führich", "ranking": 3221 }, { "player_name": "Lucien Agoumé", "ranking": 3222 }, { "player_name": "Maarten Vandevoordt", "ranking": 3223 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Vasilj", "ranking": 3224 }, { "player_name": "Wouter Burger", "ranking": 3225 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0008, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 93.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Valencia, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9949, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1488, "goals": 0.1809, "goal_rate": 0.1809, "shots_on_target": 0.5943, "total_shots": 1.5428, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "key_pass": 0.7515, "rating": 6.7761, "minutes": 62.85, "total_pass": 15.8632, "accurate_pass": 11.452, "duels_won": 2.0426, "total_long_balls": 1.8509, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9142, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8221, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7109, "crosses_total": 1.0816, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 28.0999, "possession_lost": 9.0272, "dispossessed": 1.1552, "duels_lost": 5.1447, "aerial_lost": 0.2653, "total_contest": 2.4753, "won_contest": 0.7694, "ball_recovery": 1.6193, "challenges_lost": 0.6244, "fouls": 1.3938, "fouls_drawn": 0.5039, "assists": 0.1917, "assist_rate": 0.1917, "interceptions": 0.7296, 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"contribution": 0.0785 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0753 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0435, "total": 0.5969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.273824 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.168255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138558 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078761 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02828 } ], "others_margin": 0.075569 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.860562801361084, "model_output": 1.8606, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.605 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1687 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0429 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 1.8606, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.604992 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.168733 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.069549 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.048998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042901 } ], "others_margin": 0.015657 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.858428001403809, "model_output": 6.8584, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 6.8584, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026992 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024206 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01843 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016355 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013065 } ], "others_margin": 0.002026 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0055, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1956, "expected_assists": 0.1191, "assists": 0.1218, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "expected_goals": 0.1471, "goals": 0.1809, "goal_rate": 0.1809, "shots_on_target": 0.6002, "total_shots": 1.8708, "rating": 6.8584, "minutes": 81.69, "total_pass": 28.3745, "accurate_pass": 21.461, "duels_won": 4.7207, "total_long_balls": 3.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6935, "total_own_half_passes": 11.877, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3834, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4975, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0777, "crosses_total": 1.615, "crosses_accurate": 0.4289, "touches": 46.384, "possession_lost": 14.8594, "dispossessed": 1.8004, "duels_lost": 5.5858, "aerial_won": 0.6784, "aerial_lost": 0.7688, "interceptions": 0.5621, "tackles_won": 0.5673, "tackles": 0.9488, "clearances": 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0.5101, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "assists": 0.0547, "assist_rate": 0.0547, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.1294, "total_shots": 0.5838, "rating": 6.8552, "minutes": 82.95, "total_pass": 51.0931, "accurate_pass": 44.7451, "duels_won": 2.427, "total_long_balls": 7.3817, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5048, "total_own_half_passes": 31.3858, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.0966, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6486, "crosses_total": 0.2892, "crosses_accurate": 0.0292, "touches": 63.106, "possession_lost": 7.9281, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 2.4043, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7708, "interceptions": 1.0676, "tackles_won": 0.6817, "tackles": 1.5678, "clearances": 5.3612, "total_contest": 0.2161, "won_contest": 0.0622, "challenges_lost": 0.5864, "fouls": 0.5447, "fouls_drawn": 0.4032, "blocks": 0.4613, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "big_chances_missed": 0.021, "xgot": 0.0215, "ball_carries": 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0.2892, "crosses_accurate": 0.0292, "touches": 63.106, "possession_lost": 7.9281, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 2.4043, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7708, "interceptions": 1.0676, "tackles_won": 0.6817, "tackles": 1.5678, "clearances": 5.3612, "total_contest": 0.2161, "won_contest": 0.0622, "challenges_lost": 0.5864, "fouls": 0.5447, "fouls_drawn": 0.4032, "blocks": 0.4613, "big_chances_created": 0.0042, "big_chances_missed": 0.021, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 15.8171, "total_progression": 41.0992, "progressive_carries": 0.4912, "shots_off_target": 0.4544, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.495, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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0.0892 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0865 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0501 } ], "others": 0.1068, "total": 1.974, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096847 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.078573 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.052919 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048761 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.027215 } ], "others_margin": 0.055599 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.44471779465675354, "model_output": 0.4447, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0751 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0222, "total": 0.4447, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050359 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.017612 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011855 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011438 } ], "others_margin": -0.022221 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78198766708374, "model_output": 6.782, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0053, "total": 6.782, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.023889 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.01749 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01328 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.010553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.00952 } ], "others_margin": 0.0052 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9194, "tackles": 1.1496, "tackles_won": 0.6472, "clearances": 5.2022, "aerial_won": 1.9706, "total_shots": 0.444, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 83.01, "total_pass": 50.8814, "accurate_pass": 45.2554, "duels_won": 3.4758, "total_long_balls": 4.961, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2853, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2249, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0306, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.1205, "possession_lost": 6.1655, "dispossessed": 0.2263, "duels_lost": 2.2028, "aerial_lost": 1.2915, "total_contest": 0.8459, "won_contest": 0.8459, "ball_recovery": 2.2159, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.685, "fouls_drawn": 0.2662, "blocks": 1.0252, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3133, "assist_rate": 0.3133, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3133, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1478, "total_progression": 35.1308, "progressive_carries": 0.5326, "key_pass": 0.8459, "shots_off_target": 0.4439 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.1496, "tackles_won": 0.6394, "clearances": 5.2022, "aerial_won": 1.9706, "total_shots": 0.4387, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 83.01, "total_pass": 50.8814, "accurate_pass": 45.2554, "duels_won": 3.4758, "total_long_balls": 4.961, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2853, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2249, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0306, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.1205, "possession_lost": 6.1655, "dispossessed": 0.2263, "duels_lost": 2.2028, "aerial_lost": 1.2915, "total_contest": 0.8459, "won_contest": 0.8459, "ball_recovery": 2.2159, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6989, "fouls_drawn": 0.263, "blocks": 1.0252, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3095, "assist_rate": 0.3095, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3133, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1478, "total_progression": 35.1308, "progressive_carries": 0.5326, "key_pass": 0.8459, "shots_off_target": 0.4439 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9223, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.685, "after": 0.6989 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9194, "after": 0.9083 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6472, "after": 0.6394 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.444, "after": 0.4387 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.1496, "tackles_won": 0.6394, "clearances": 5.2022, "aerial_won": 1.9706, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 83.01, "total_pass": 50.8814, "accurate_pass": 45.2554, "duels_won": 3.4758, "total_long_balls": 4.961, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2853, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2249, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0306, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.1205, "possession_lost": 6.1655, "dispossessed": 0.2263, "duels_lost": 2.2028, "aerial_lost": 1.2915, "total_contest": 0.8459, "won_contest": 0.8459, "ball_recovery": 2.2159, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6989, "fouls_drawn": 0.263, "blocks": 1.0252, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3095, "assist_rate": 0.3095, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3133, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1478, "total_progression": 35.1308, "progressive_carries": 0.5326, "key_pass": 0.8459, "shots_off_target": 0.4439 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.1496, "tackles_won": 0.6394, "clearances": 5.2022, "aerial_won": 1.9706, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 83.01, "total_pass": 50.8814, "accurate_pass": 45.2554, "duels_won": 3.4758, "total_long_balls": 4.961, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2853, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2249, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0306, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.1205, "possession_lost": 6.1655, "dispossessed": 0.2263, "duels_lost": 2.2028, "aerial_lost": 1.2915, "total_contest": 0.8459, "won_contest": 0.8459, "ball_recovery": 2.2159, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6989, "fouls_drawn": 0.263, "blocks": 1.0252, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3095, "assist_rate": 0.3095, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3133, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1478, "total_progression": 35.1308, "progressive_carries": 0.5326, "key_pass": 0.8459, "shots_off_target": 0.4439, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.1496, "tackles_won": 0.6394, "clearances": 5.2022, "aerial_won": 1.9706, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 83.01, "total_pass": 50.8814, "accurate_pass": 45.2554, "duels_won": 3.4758, "total_long_balls": 4.961, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2853, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2249, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0306, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.1205, "possession_lost": 6.1655, "dispossessed": 0.2263, "duels_lost": 2.2028, "aerial_lost": 1.2915, "total_contest": 0.8459, "won_contest": 0.8459, "ball_recovery": 2.2159, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6989, "fouls_drawn": 0.263, "blocks": 1.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3133, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1478, "total_progression": 35.1308, "progressive_carries": 0.5326, "key_pass": 0.8459, "shots_off_target": 0.4439, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.0543, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 1.0957, team xA 0.64 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.1496, "tackles_won": 0.6394, "clearances": 5.2022, "aerial_won": 1.9706, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 83.01, "total_pass": 50.8814, "accurate_pass": 45.2554, "duels_won": 3.4758, "total_long_balls": 4.961, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2853, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2249, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0306, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.1205, "possession_lost": 6.1655, "dispossessed": 0.2263, "duels_lost": 2.2028, "aerial_lost": 1.2915, "total_contest": 0.8459, "won_contest": 0.8459, "ball_recovery": 2.2159, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6989, "fouls_drawn": 0.263, "blocks": 1.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3133, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1478, "total_progression": 35.1308, "progressive_carries": 0.5326, "key_pass": 0.8459, "shots_off_target": 0.4439, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9141, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0543, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.6409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 1.0957, "opponent_lambda": 1.002, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.1496, "tackles_won": 0.6394, "clearances": 5.2022, "aerial_won": 1.9706, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 6.782, "minutes": 83.01, "total_pass": 50.8814, "accurate_pass": 45.2554, "duels_won": 3.4758, "total_long_balls": 4.961, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2853, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.2249, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0306, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.1205, "possession_lost": 6.1655, "dispossessed": 0.2263, "duels_lost": 2.2028, "aerial_lost": 1.2915, "total_contest": 0.8459, "won_contest": 0.8459, "ball_recovery": 2.2159, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6989, "fouls_drawn": 0.263, "blocks": 1.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056383 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029869 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.021441 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010333 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.00954 } ], "others_margin": -0.037947 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753645896911621, "model_output": 6.7536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0812, "tackles": 1.195, "tackles_won": 0.6425, "clearances": 4.9171, "aerial_won": 1.9573, "total_shots": 0.486, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 72.95, "total_pass": 38.3305, "accurate_pass": 32.7557, "duels_won": 3.0855, "total_long_balls": 2.9609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0475, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2762, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8333, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.8613, "possession_lost": 6.9725, "dispossessed": 0.1791, "duels_lost": 2.2191, "aerial_lost": 0.8764, "total_contest": 0.6433, "won_contest": 0.2199, "ball_recovery": 3.4459, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.2824, "blocks": 0.2124, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "shots_on_target": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 11.4073, "total_progression": 37.1507, "progressive_carries": 0.2681, "key_pass": 0.0675, "shots_off_target": 0.3293, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.0543, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 1.0957, team xA 0.64 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0812, "tackles": 1.195, "tackles_won": 0.6425, "clearances": 4.9171, "aerial_won": 1.9573, "total_shots": 0.486, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 72.95, "total_pass": 38.3305, "accurate_pass": 32.7557, "duels_won": 3.0855, "total_long_balls": 2.9609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0475, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2762, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8333, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.8613, "possession_lost": 6.9725, "dispossessed": 0.1791, "duels_lost": 2.2191, 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"2026-09-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 4.7713, 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"goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.022059 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012003 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.011801 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010742 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.005781 } ], "others_margin": 0.004464 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.10680698603391647, "model_output": -0.1068, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": -0.1068, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.02277 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.019679 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.01459 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.011657 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.011461 } ], "others_margin": -0.021851 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.922903537750244, "model_output": 6.9229, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0414, "total": 6.9229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.032948 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019176 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.01842 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.016904 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016255 } ], "others_margin": -0.041446 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9969, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1346, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3306, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9969, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0197)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1254, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3241, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0197, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.1346, "after": 3.1254 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3306, "after": 0.3241 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1254, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3241, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1254, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3241, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9807, "shots_faced": 9.3, "expected_saves": 2.27, "high_pressure_saves": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.9807 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.1254, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3241, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9807, "shots_faced": 9.3, "expected_saves": 2.27, "high_pressure_saves": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.0543, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 1.0957, team xA 0.64 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1254, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3241, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9807, "shots_faced": 9.5, "expected_saves": 2.32, "high_pressure_saves": 0.8, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0543, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.6409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 1.0957, "opponent_lambda": 1.002, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.3, "after": 9.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.27, "after": 2.32 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.78, "after": 0.8 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1254, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3241, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9807, "shots_faced": 9.5, "expected_saves": 2.32, "high_pressure_saves": 0.8, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 3.1254, "goals_prevented": -0.1065, "rating": 6.9229, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4016, "accurate_pass": 18.5028, "total_long_balls": 18.9485, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7565, "touches": 45.7548, "clearances": 0.8587, "ball_recovery": 9.8236, "high_claims": 1.7359, "punches": 0.6167, "aerial_won": 0.2085, "sweeper_actions": 1.1093, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0902, "saves_inside_box": 2.3447, "possession_lost": 15.29, "duels_won": 0.5464, "duels_lost": 0.0215, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3241, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3704, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9807, "shots_faced": 9.5, "expected_saves": 2.32, "high_pressure_saves": 0.8, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": 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"season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.06 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (40 historical appearances) to 13.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2487, "tackles": 0.5712, "tackles_won": 0.4086, "clearances": 0.9041, "aerial_won": 0.2679, "total_shots": 0.1439, "rating": 6.6683, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 5.9725, "accurate_pass": 3.9665, "duels_won": 1.04, "total_long_balls": 1.4725, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1927, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3018, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6707, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2923, "crosses_total": 0.2267, "crosses_accurate": 0.2267, "touches": 9.2932, "possession_lost": 3.3397, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9189, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4194, "challenges_lost": 0.2667, "fouls": 0.6522, "fouls_drawn": 0.5065, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.5405, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1439 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.5263, "aerialWon": 0.6215, "totalClearance_p90": 1.7008, "totalTackle": 1.1624, "defensive_actions": 1.705 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2487151026725769, "model_output": 0.2487, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4993 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 0.2487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.867565 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.129628 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.031744 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027574 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.0275 } ], "others_margin": -0.157629 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5712350606918335, "model_output": 0.5712, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8042 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 0.5712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862577 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.039904 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.034416 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027844 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.025846 } ], "others_margin": 0.020439 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.408611536026001, "model_output": 0.4086, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4599 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.4086, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.77299 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.064516 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.049099 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.048279 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.038391 } ], "others_margin": -0.087874 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9041441082954407, "model_output": 0.9041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0978 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2823 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0649 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0385, "total": 0.9041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.94446 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.237552 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063655 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.026465 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020271 } ], "others_margin": -0.04172 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.26789310574531555, "model_output": 0.2679, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8063 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1713 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0392, "total": 0.2679, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.880435 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.356614 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.132062 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.098155 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033358 } ], "others_margin": -0.136678 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14385102689266205, "model_output": 0.1439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2438 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 0.1439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.243823 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02485 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009107 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008344 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.007847 } ], "others_margin": -0.036677 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.668334484100342, "model_output": 6.6683, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0456, "total": 6.6683, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02281 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.013456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01237 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008624 } ], "others_margin": -0.045615 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2489, "tackles": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.409, "clearances": 0.905, "aerial_won": 0.2681, "total_shots": 0.144, "rating": 6.6683, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 5.9779, "accurate_pass": 3.9701, "duels_won": 1.0409, "total_long_balls": 1.4738, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1929, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3048, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6766, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2935, "crosses_total": 0.2269, "crosses_accurate": 0.2269, "touches": 9.3016, "possession_lost": 3.3427, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9197, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4198, "challenges_lost": 0.2669, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.507, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.541, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.144 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10800000, "quality_factor": 0.5318, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2485, "tackles": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.4079, "clearances": 0.905, "aerial_won": 0.2681, "total_shots": 0.1434, "rating": 6.6683, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 5.9779, "accurate_pass": 3.9701, "duels_won": 1.0409, "total_long_balls": 1.4738, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1929, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3048, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6766, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2935, "crosses_total": 0.2273, "crosses_accurate": 0.2269, "touches": 9.3016, "possession_lost": 3.3427, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9197, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4198, "challenges_lost": 0.2669, "fouls": 0.65, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.541, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.144 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1436, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 13.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2682, "tackles": 0.6171, "tackles_won": 0.4403, "clearances": 0.9769, "aerial_won": 0.2894, "total_shots": 0.1554, "rating": 6.6683, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 6.4526, "accurate_pass": 4.2854, "duels_won": 1.1236, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8891, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3962, "crosses_total": 0.2453, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 10.0402, "possession_lost": 3.6081, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9927, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4531, "challenges_lost": 0.2669, "fouls": 0.7016, "fouls_drawn": 0.5449, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.584, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.95, "projection_minutes": 12.92, "minutes_scale": 1.0794, "appearance_probability": 0.225 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2682, "tackles": 0.6171, "tackles_won": 0.4403, "clearances": 0.9769, "aerial_won": 0.2894, "total_shots": 0.1554, "rating": 6.6683, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 6.4526, "accurate_pass": 4.2854, "duels_won": 1.1236, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8891, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3962, "crosses_total": 0.2453, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 10.0402, "possession_lost": 3.6081, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9927, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4531, "challenges_lost": 0.2669, "fouls": 0.7016, "fouls_drawn": 0.5449, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.584, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2682, "tackles": 0.6171, "tackles_won": 0.4403, "clearances": 0.9769, "aerial_won": 0.2894, "total_shots": 0.1554, "rating": 6.6683, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 6.4526, "accurate_pass": 4.2854, "duels_won": 1.1236, "total_long_balls": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4558, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.2279, "total_shots": 0.5293, "rating": 6.6716, "minutes": 24.07, "total_pass": 17.1992, "accurate_pass": 14.0421, "duels_won": 0.6541, "total_long_balls": 1.0235, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4382, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5459, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1914, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4961, "crosses_total": 0.2785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0928, "touches": 20.6939, "possession_lost": 4.0408, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5468, "aerial_won": 0.3184, "aerial_lost": 0.302, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2569, "tackles": 0.2569, "clearances": 0.288, 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"scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.119, "expected_assists": 0.1259, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.059, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3510, "combined_rank_score": 1488.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 576.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8037, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 2401.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.751, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Filip Ugrinić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Masuaku", "ranking": 3505 }, { "player_name": "Mario Götze", "ranking": 3506 }, { "player_name": "Pere Milla", "ranking": 3507 }, { "player_name": "Mitchell Weiser", "ranking": 3508 }, { "player_name": "Frank Onyeka", "ranking": 3509 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Robin Zentner", "ranking": 3511 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Diks", "ranking": 3512 }, { "player_name": "Zuriko Davitashvili", "ranking": 3513 }, { "player_name": "Grischa Prömel", "ranking": 3514 }, { "player_name": "Pol Lozano", "ranking": 3515 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.772, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", 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true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.5503, "creative_index": 0.3131, "expectedGoals": 0.0331, "expectedAssists": 0.066, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1677 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.49032074213027954, "model_output": 0.4903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3999 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": 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"contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.053, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559912 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.216106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.10233 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.067247 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.028757 } ], "others_margin": -0.072403 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.05534996837377548, "model_output": 0.0553, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.0282, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606428 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.149064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.12208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.090351 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.053372 } ], "others_margin": -0.186617 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03701089695096016, "model_output": 0.037, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.037, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.45041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146912 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103583 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.088633 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.069781 } ], "others_margin": -0.112277 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.11376602202653885, "model_output": 0.1138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1458 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0032 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.1138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593773 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.158853 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025963 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.021944 } ], "others_margin": -0.082892 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3685222268104553, "model_output": 0.3685, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.334 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1735 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": -0.121, "total": 0.3685, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.333985 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.173484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036854 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.022318 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.01611 } ], "others_margin": -0.121118 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750979423522949, "model_output": 6.751, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0841 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0043, "total": 6.751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.084098 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038649 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017287 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016398 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015387 } ], "others_margin": 0.004395 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4897, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "assists": 0.0553, "assist_rate": 0.0553, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1136, "total_shots": 0.3681, "rating": 6.751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 13.2046, "accurate_pass": 10.819, "duels_won": 1.5091, "total_long_balls": 1.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5263, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5482, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2708, "crosses_total": 1.9156, "crosses_accurate": 0.8767, "touches": 20.5643, "possession_lost": 5.3609, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.4827, "aerial_won": 0.2817, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2044, "tackles": 0.7277, "clearances": 0.8231, "total_contest": 0.4058, "won_contest": 0.2258, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.2394, "fouls_drawn": 0.2738, "blocks": 0.1105, "big_chances_created": 0.5114, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8766, "total_progression": 14.469, "progressive_carries": 0.4465, "shots_off_target": 0.2545 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0119)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4897, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "assists": 0.0546, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "goals": 0.0366, "goal_rate": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "total_shots": 0.3731, "rating": 6.751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 13.2046, "accurate_pass": 10.819, "duels_won": 1.5091, "total_long_balls": 1.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5263, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5482, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2708, "crosses_total": 1.9096, "crosses_accurate": 0.8767, "touches": 20.5643, "possession_lost": 5.3609, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.4827, "aerial_won": 0.2817, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0031, "tackles_won": 0.2065, "tackles": 0.7277, "clearances": 0.8231, "total_contest": 0.4058, "won_contest": 0.2258, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.2396, "fouls_drawn": 0.2828, "blocks": 0.1105, "big_chances_created": 0.5114, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8766, "total_progression": 14.469, "progressive_carries": 0.4465, "shots_off_target": 0.2545 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0119, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2819, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2738, "after": 0.2828 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9156, "after": 1.9096 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3681, "after": 0.3731 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 29.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5742, "expected_assists": 0.062, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, "total_shots": 0.4375, "rating": 6.751, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 15.4843, "accurate_pass": 12.6868, "duels_won": 1.7696, "total_long_balls": 1.2308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6172, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8951, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1608, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5261, "crosses_total": 2.2393, "crosses_accurate": 1.0281, "touches": 24.1146, "possession_lost": 6.2864, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.7387, "aerial_won": 0.3303, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0036, "tackles_won": 0.2422, "tackles": 0.8533, "clearances": 0.9652, "total_contest": 0.4759, "won_contest": 0.2648, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.281, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "blocks": 0.1296, "big_chances_created": 0.5997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7185, "total_progression": 16.967, "progressive_carries": 0.5236, "shots_off_target": 0.2984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.438, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.75 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.75, "projection_minutes": 25.37, "minutes_scale": 1.1726, "appearance_probability": 0.438 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5742, "expected_assists": 0.062, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, "total_shots": 0.4375, "rating": 6.751, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 15.4843, "accurate_pass": 12.6868, "duels_won": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goals": 0.0695, "goal_rate": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.1972, "total_shots": 0.5527, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.4043, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 21.11, "total_pass": 8.577, "accurate_pass": 7.1017, "duels_won": 1.4834, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0911, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3728, "crosses_total": 1.2057, "crosses_accurate": 0.5379, "touches": 15.3972, "possession_lost": 3.9523, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 1.9326, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.7507, "won_contest": 0.3836, "ball_recovery": 1.4292, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.0843, "fouls_drawn": 0.1989, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1673, "tackles_won": 0.5233, "tackles": 0.6106, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.047, "big_chances_missed": 0.1346, "xgot": 0.0203, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9657, "total_progression": 17.3104, "progressive_carries": 0.7642, "shots_off_target": 0.3555 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0843, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.61, "projection_minutes": 21.11, "minutes_scale": 1.2132, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0843, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.301227 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.129557 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.108615 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.056585 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048181 } ], "others_margin": -0.038032 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4104865789413452, "model_output": 0.4105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.249 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0581, "total": 0.4105, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.461644 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09625 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07873 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.0391 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028103 } ], "others_margin": 0.152672 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696699619293213, "model_output": 6.6967, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0677 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.6967, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067656 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010122 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009997 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.009633 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.008903 } ], "others_margin": -0.002039 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.101, "goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.0919, "shots_on_target": 0.4058, "total_shots": 1.0578, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4102, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 21.4, "total_pass": 4.5144, "accurate_pass": 3.1633, "duels_won": 1.3563, "total_long_balls": 0.0611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0611, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2498, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0894, "touches": 10.803, "possession_lost": 3.907, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.0564, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.1993, "won_contest": 0.4797, "ball_recovery": 1.142, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2157, "fouls_drawn": 0.393, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.1514, "tackles_won": 0.2498, "tackles": 0.2498, "clearances": 0.0994, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1617, "big_chances_missed": 0.0196, "xgot": 0.1002, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.0591, "total_progression": 24.8085, "progressive_carries": 1.3212, "shots_off_target": 0.652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.51, "projection_minutes": 21.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1921, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.0543, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 1.0957, team xA 0.64 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.0635, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9366, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0543, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.6409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 1.0957, "opponent_lambda": 1.002, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1204, "after": 0.0641 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0592, "after": 0.0369 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.0635, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9366, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3237, "fifa_rank": 1787.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 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], "others": -0.0399, "total": 6.6508, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053476 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011672 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010893 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009364 } ], "others_margin": -0.039925 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goals": 0.0695, "goal_rate": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.1972, "total_shots": 0.5527, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.4043, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 21.11, "total_pass": 8.577, "accurate_pass": 7.1017, "duels_won": 1.4834, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0911, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3728, "crosses_total": 1.2057, "crosses_accurate": 0.5379, "touches": 15.3972, "possession_lost": 3.9523, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 1.9326, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.7507, "won_contest": 0.3836, "ball_recovery": 1.4292, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.0843, "fouls_drawn": 0.1989, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1673, "tackles_won": 0.5233, "tackles": 0.6106, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.047, "big_chances_missed": 0.1346, "xgot": 0.0203, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9657, "total_progression": 17.3104, "progressive_carries": 0.7642, "shots_off_target": 0.3555 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0843, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.61, "projection_minutes": 21.11, "minutes_scale": 1.2132, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0843, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.0543, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 1.0957, team xA 0.64 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0132, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0558, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0543, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.6409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 1.0957, "opponent_lambda": 1.002, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0772, "after": 0.0414 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0524, "after": 0.0329 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0132, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0558, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3167, "fifa_rank": 1575.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2392, "total_shots": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.6508, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, 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"name": "touches", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.6967, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067656 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010122 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009997 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.009633 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.008903 } ], "others_margin": -0.002039 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.101, "goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.0919, "shots_on_target": 0.4058, "total_shots": 1.0578, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4102, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 21.4, "total_pass": 4.5144, "accurate_pass": 3.1633, "duels_won": 1.3563, "total_long_balls": 0.0611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0611, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2498, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0894, "touches": 10.803, "possession_lost": 3.907, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.0564, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.1993, "won_contest": 0.4797, "ball_recovery": 1.142, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2157, "fouls_drawn": 0.393, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.1514, "tackles_won": 0.2498, "tackles": 0.2498, "clearances": 0.0994, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1617, "big_chances_missed": 0.0196, "xgot": 0.1002, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.0591, "total_progression": 24.8085, "progressive_carries": 1.3212, "shots_off_target": 0.652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.51, "projection_minutes": 21.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1921, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.99 (squad xG sum 1.0543, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 1.0957, team xA 0.64 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.0635, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9366, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.986, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0543, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.6409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 1.0957, "opponent_lambda": 1.002, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1204, "after": 0.0641 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0592, "after": 0.0369 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.0635, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9366, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3237, "fifa_rank": 1787.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4838, "total_shots": 1.261, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.489, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.0635, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0606, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0357, "finishing_factor": 0.9366, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "provider_weight": 0.0295, "squad_weight_total": 0.6588, "weight_share": 0.0448, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { 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"team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2717, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3133, "combined_rank_score": 1100.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1972.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0302, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.489837 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.071072 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.050975 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039892 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027852 } ], "others_margin": 0.047918 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.15836457908153534, "model_output": 0.1584, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0057 } ], "others": 0.0412, "total": 0.1584, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.190619 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.163793 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.114298 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.082962 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.049595 } ], "others_margin": 0.301388 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5532197952270508, "model_output": 1.5532, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.175 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1148 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1113 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0764 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.055 } ], "others": 0.3473, "total": 1.5532, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.231074 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.126949 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.109335 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068705 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.046706 } ], "others_margin": 0.253023 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.030214309692383, "model_output": 7.0302, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.083 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0815 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": 0.0532, "total": 7.0302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083045 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.081464 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.037533 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025888 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.017877 } ], "others_margin": 0.05316 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2021, "goals": 0.2738, "goal_rate": 0.2738, "shots_on_target": 0.6535, "total_shots": 1.9585, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1668, "xgot": 0.3527, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.305 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2021, "goals": 0.2738, "goal_rate": 0.2738, "shots_on_target": 0.6535, "total_shots": 1.9585, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1668, "xgot": 0.3527, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.305 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.187, "goals": 0.2533, "goal_rate": 0.2533, "shots_on_target": 0.6046, "total_shots": 1.8119, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1543, "xgot": 0.3263, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.2073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "skill_edge": 0.005, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.4927, "defender_skill": 0.4815, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "market_value": 7700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5256 }, { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.187 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9585, "after": 1.8119 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.305, "after": 1.2073 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6535, "after": 0.6046 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3527, "after": 0.3263 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2738, "after": 0.2533 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2021, "after": 0.187 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1668, "after": 0.1543 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.187, "goal_rate": 0.2533, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6046, "total_shots": 1.8119, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1543, "xgot": 0.3263, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.2073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 1.0407, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.8417, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goal_rate": 0.2533, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6046, "total_shots": 1.8119, "expected_assists": 0.1332, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1543, "xgot": 0.3142, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.2073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.002, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0407, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9524, "team_expected_assists": 0.8016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.8417, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.187, "after": 0.1801 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1583, "after": 0.1332 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goal_rate": 0.2533, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6046, "total_shots": 1.8119, "expected_assists": 0.1332, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1543, "xgot": 0.3142, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.2073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3133, "fifa_rank": 1972.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goal_rate": 0.2533, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6046, "total_shots": 1.8119, "expected_assists": 0.1332, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1543, "xgot": 0.3142, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.2073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1648, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1648, "goal_rate": 0.2533, "scorer_weight": 0.2251, "squad_weight_total": 1.0881, "weight_share": 0.2069, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goal_rate": 0.2533, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6046, "total_shots": 1.8119, "expected_assists": 0.1332, "key_pass": 1.5526, "rating": 7.0302, "minutes": 73.23, "total_pass": 22.3645, "accurate_pass": 18.326, "duels_won": 2.7494, "total_long_balls": 1.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2994, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5401, "crosses_total": 3.3219, "crosses_accurate": 1.175, "touches": 38.2278, "possession_lost": 9.8264, "dispossessed": 0.7852, "duels_lost": 3.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.2233, "total_contest": 1.9777, "won_contest": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 3.2216, "challenges_lost": 0.3709, "fouls": 0.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.4959, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles_won": 0.5325, "tackles": 1.0623, "clearances": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1543, "xgot": 0.3142, "offsides": 0.028, "ball_carries": 13.2727, "total_progression": 48.5964, "progressive_carries": 2.731, "shots_off_target": 1.2073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1648, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1247, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1247, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.1066, "squad_weight_total": 0.7312, "weight_share": 0.1457, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "player_id": 96365, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 174, "market_value": 1800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1387, "assist_rate": 0.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0464, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1027, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 31, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 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"matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Guido Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Guido Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Guido Rodríguez", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9447, "skill_edge": 0.0104, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.4759, "defender_skill": 0.4527, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "market_value": 3600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4527 } ], "xg_override": 0.0294 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9541, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.522, "after": 0.4931 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3724, "after": 0.3518 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9094, "tackles": 1.673, "tackles_won": 1.0452, "clearances": 2.4397, "aerial_won": 0.9017, "total_shots": 1.252, "rating": 7.0629, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6029, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9085, "fouls_drawn": 0.4855, "blocks": 0.0539, "goals": 0.0, 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whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9136, "tackles": 1.673, "tackles_won": 1.0393, "clearances": 2.4397, "aerial_won": 0.9017, "total_shots": 1.2588, "rating": 7.0629, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6022, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9127, "fouls_drawn": 0.4827, "blocks": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.1701, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, 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0.8016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.8417, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0081, "total": 0.4582, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093195 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05242 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.040376 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015136 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008946 } ], "others_margin": 0.00816 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.674358367919922, "model_output": 6.6744, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1785, "tackles": 1.7259, "tackles_won": 1.0826, "clearances": 2.102, "aerial_won": 1.0258, "total_shots": 0.4575, "rating": 6.6744, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2892, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4445, "crosses_total": 3.7544, "crosses_accurate": 1.0389, "touches": 51.036, "possession_lost": 12.279, "dispossessed": 0.4165, "duels_lost": 2.7604, "aerial_lost": 0.5986, "total_contest": 0.9275, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 2.7509, "challenges_lost": 0.3978, "fouls": 0.9363, "fouls_drawn": 0.5308, "blocks": 0.2518, "goals": 0.0, 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"weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 7.2557, "save_contribution": 2.4398, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8765, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 18.0691, "passValueNormalized": 0.1247, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 20.2603 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9113869667053223, "model_output": 2.9114, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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"aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0333, "total": -0.0672, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02714 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.026881 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.020489 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.014129 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013626 } ], "others_margin": -0.03327 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.001473903656006, "model_output": 7.0015, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 7.0015, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.019041 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01506 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013555 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010824 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0023, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.179, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "assists": 0.0872, "assist_rate": 0.0872, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "total_shots": 1.0404, "rating": 6.9079, "minutes": 88.0, "total_pass": 30.6409, "accurate_pass": 26.7298, "duels_won": 2.6559, "total_long_balls": 1.2427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.629, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2387, "crosses_total": 1.1554, "crosses_accurate": 0.1931, "touches": 38.6474, "possession_lost": 6.4527, "dispossessed": 0.4204, "duels_lost": 1.8066, "aerial_won": 0.3145, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2272, "tackles_won": 0.4545, "tackles": 0.4545, "clearances": 0.2673, "total_contest": 1.5453, "won_contest": 0.7727, "challenges_lost": 0.4204, "fouls": 0.1931, "fouls_drawn": 1.1142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2815, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0171, "ball_carries": 14.0445, "total_progression": 44.1967, "progressive_carries": 1.0872, "shots_off_target": 0.685 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0023, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0554)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.179, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goals": 0.0901, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "shots_on_target": 0.3828, "total_shots": 1.0537, "rating": 6.9079, "minutes": 88.0, "total_pass": 30.6409, "accurate_pass": 26.7298, "duels_won": 2.6559, "total_long_balls": 1.2427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.629, 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"expected_goals": 0.0886, "goals": 0.0957, "goal_rate": 0.0957, "shots_on_target": 0.4066, "total_shots": 1.1342, "rating": 6.9079, "minutes": 88.0, "total_pass": 30.6409, "accurate_pass": 26.7298, "duels_won": 2.6559, "total_long_balls": 1.2427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.629, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2387, "crosses_total": 1.1856, "crosses_accurate": 0.1931, "touches": 38.6474, "possession_lost": 6.4527, "dispossessed": 0.4204, "duels_lost": 1.8066, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2382, "tackles_won": 0.4545, "tackles": 0.4545, "clearances": 0.2673, "total_contest": 1.5453, "won_contest": 0.7727, "challenges_lost": 0.4204, "fouls": 0.2059, "fouls_drawn": 1.1467, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2815, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0182, "ball_carries": 14.0445, "total_progression": 44.1967, "progressive_carries": 1.0872, 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[ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3145, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0678, "after": 1.1342 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.685, "after": 0.7276 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3828, "after": 0.4066 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0901, "after": 0.0957 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0834, "after": 0.0886 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.179, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0886, "goal_rate": 0.0957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4066, "total_shots": 1.1342, "rating": 6.9079, "minutes": 88.0, "total_pass": 30.6409, "accurate_pass": 26.7298, "duels_won": 2.6559, "total_long_balls": 1.2427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.629, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1047, 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"opponent_faced": "Pablo Maffeo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 1.0407, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.8417, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.179, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0853, "goal_rate": 0.0957, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4066, "total_shots": 1.1342, "rating": 6.9079, "minutes": 88.0, "total_pass": 30.6409, "accurate_pass": 26.7298, "duels_won": 2.6559, "total_long_balls": 1.2427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.629, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5362, 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"name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0303, "total": 0.1794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.237307 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02157 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010299 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008935 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007271 } ], "others_margin": -0.030326 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7390360832214355, "model_output": 6.739, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": 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"position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 186, "market_value": 7100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 3.1969, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 34, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2616, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0921, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083454, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.096, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083260, "match_date": "2026-02-08", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083195, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.077, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083127, "match_date": "2026-01-24", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1702, "combined_rank_score": 690.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1243.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8858, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aitor Paredes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vicente Álvarez", "ranking": 1697 }, { "player_name": "Matías Cavalleri", "ranking": 1698 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Odobert", "ranking": 1701 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 1703 }, { "player_name": "Angeliño", "ranking": 1704 }, { "player_name": "Park Kyu-Min", "ranking": 1705 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vidal", "ranking": 1706 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking": 1707 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.771804972390745, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.221, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9991, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (23 historical appearances) to 13.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4184, "tackles": 0.5454, "tackles_won": 0.3139, "clearances": 2.154, "aerial_won": 0.872, "total_shots": 0.2538, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 55.0303, "accurate_pass": 50.2129, "duels_won": 3.2582, "total_long_balls": 6.95, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9208, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0023, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.2106, "crosses_total": 0.2473, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.7148, "possession_lost": 5.3974, "dispossessed": 0.058, "duels_lost": 1.6217, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.0998, "won_contest": 0.0998, "ball_recovery": 3.8278, "challenges_lost": 0.2424, "fouls": 0.8947, "fouls_drawn": 0.3845, "blocks": 0.154, "goals": 0.2035, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.2201, "big_chances_created": 0.059, "xgot": 0.1449, "ball_carries": 16.9308, "total_progression": 57.5657, "progressive_carries": 0.7274, "key_pass": 0.4292, "shots_off_target": 0.0337 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-24", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.0232, "aerialWon": 1.5784, "totalClearance_p90": 5.7503, "totalTackle": 1.1954, "defensive_actions": 2.2318 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4183559715747833, "model_output": 0.4184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4772 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0163, "total": 0.4184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.808058 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.058475 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038702 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030382 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019971 } ], "others_margin": 0.039619 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5454102158546448, "model_output": 0.5454, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.742 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0627, "total": 0.5454, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.761956 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.045363 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.026898 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.023859 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.017502 } ], "others_margin": -0.108744 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.31388115882873535, "model_output": 0.3139, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4578 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0518, "total": 0.3139, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.7677 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043901 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.039422 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.030136 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.02748 } ], "others_margin": -0.152745 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.1540000438690186, "model_output": 2.154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0354 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.319 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1685 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0879 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0748 } ], "others": 0.1065, "total": 2.154, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.898823 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.205607 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.093639 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.045572 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.037204 } ], "others_margin": 0.050772 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.871982753276825, "model_output": 0.872, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7536 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0951 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0371 } ], "others": 0.1066, "total": 0.872, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.792239 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.141877 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.060517 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.049654 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.047311 } ], "others_margin": 0.130383 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.25380638241767883, "model_output": 0.2538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2375 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0072, "total": 0.2538, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.237481 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.018739 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014291 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014256 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009102 } ], "others_margin": 0.007114 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.885788917541504, "model_output": 6.8858, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": 0.0329, "total": 6.8858, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025748 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.025317 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.025301 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021481 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.021012 } ], "others_margin": 0.03286 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.488)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.418, "tackles": 0.5449, "tackles_won": 0.3136, "clearances": 2.1521, "aerial_won": 0.8712, "total_shots": 0.2536, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 54.9808, "accurate_pass": 50.1677, "duels_won": 3.2553, "total_long_balls": 6.9437, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9173, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.9753, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1924, "crosses_total": 0.2471, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.6557, "possession_lost": 5.3925, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 1.6202, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0997, "won_contest": 0.0997, "ball_recovery": 3.8244, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.8939, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "blocks": 0.1539, "goals": 0.2033, "goal_rate": 0.2033, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.2199, "big_chances_created": 0.0589, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 16.9156, "total_progression": 57.5139, "progressive_carries": 0.7267, "key_pass": 0.4288, "shots_off_target": 0.0337 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7100000, "quality_factor": 0.4878, "boost_factor": 0.9991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0139)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4142, "tackles": 0.5449, "tackles_won": 0.3132, "clearances": 2.1521, "aerial_won": 0.8712, "total_shots": 0.252, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 54.9808, "accurate_pass": 50.1677, "duels_won": 3.2553, "total_long_balls": 6.9437, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9173, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.9753, 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0.8874 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2456, "tackles": 0.323, "tackles_won": 0.1857, "clearances": 1.2759, "aerial_won": 0.5165, "total_shots": 0.1497, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 4.1165, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3224, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.971, "crosses_total": 0.1468, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9237, "possession_lost": 3.1969, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 0.9605, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0591, "won_contest": 0.0591, "ball_recovery": 2.2673, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.5261, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "blocks": 0.0912, "goals": 0.1201, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 10.0283, "total_progression": 34.0969, "progressive_carries": 0.4308, "key_pass": 0.2542, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.77, "projection_minutes": 23.23, "minutes_scale": 0.5928, "appearance_probability": 0.221 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2456, "tackles": 0.323, "tackles_won": 0.1857, "clearances": 1.2759, "aerial_won": 0.5165, "total_shots": 0.1497, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 4.1165, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3224, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.971, "crosses_total": 0.1468, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9237, "possession_lost": 3.1969, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 0.9605, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0591, "won_contest": 0.0591, "ball_recovery": 2.2673, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.5261, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "blocks": 0.0912, "goals": 0.1201, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 10.0283, "total_progression": 34.0969, "progressive_carries": 0.4308, "key_pass": 0.2542, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2456, "tackles": 0.323, "tackles_won": 0.1857, "clearances": 1.2759, "aerial_won": 0.5165, "total_shots": 0.1497, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 4.1165, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3224, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.971, "crosses_total": 0.1468, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9237, "possession_lost": 3.1969, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 0.9605, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0591, "won_contest": 0.0591, "ball_recovery": 2.2673, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.5261, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "blocks": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 10.0283, "total_progression": 34.0969, "progressive_carries": 0.4308, "key_pass": 0.2542, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.221, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2456, "tackles": 0.323, "tackles_won": 0.1857, "clearances": 1.2759, "aerial_won": 0.5165, "total_shots": 0.1497, "rating": 6.8858, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 4.1165, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3224, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.971, "crosses_total": 0.1468, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9237, "possession_lost": 3.1969, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 0.9605, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0591, "won_contest": 0.0591, "ball_recovery": 2.2673, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.5261, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "blocks": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 10.0283, "total_progression": 34.0969, "progressive_carries": 0.4308, "key_pass": 0.2542, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1702, "fifa_rank": 1243.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Mikel Jauregizar": { "player_id": 1495844, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 177, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0014, 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"season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1908, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", 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"ranking": 502 }, { "player_name": "Dong-min Kim", "ranking": 503 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.62, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0123, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (31 historical appearances) to 25.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, 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0.0799, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0889 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 0.0799, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.598102 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.103817 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.057609 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.038061 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.036895 } ], "others_margin": -0.146409 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14585816860198975, "model_output": 0.1459, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0764 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": 0.1459, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471239 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.061526 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.043211 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.039787 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.036756 } ], "others_margin": 0.037203 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30642926692962646, "model_output": 0.3064, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0366, "total": 0.3064, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.567186 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.098708 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.086224 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.053063 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.05239 } ], "others_margin": -0.112969 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1446884870529175, "model_output": 1.1447, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5553 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1492 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0592 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 1.1447, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.555256 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.149208 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.064896 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.060994 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.059164 } ], "others_margin": -0.008157 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07135449349880219, "model_output": 0.0714, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": 0.0094, "total": 0.0714, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.401085 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.171722 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.093896 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.050203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05018 } ], "others_margin": 0.140499 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7196004986763, "model_output": 0.7196, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.248 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.065 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": 0.0928, "total": 0.7196, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.459373 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.167865 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.121546 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.053013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045357 } ], "others_margin": 0.137997 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9674973487854, "model_output": 6.9675, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0314 } ], "others": 0.1205, "total": 6.9675, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078851 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.048258 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.041157 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.037972 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.03138 } ], "others_margin": 0.120577 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 1.1588, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.7285, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1615, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8486 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1466, "goal_rate": 0.1466, "shots_on_target": 0.308, "total_shots": 1.1584, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.7285, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1404, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2239, "tackles_won": 0.4981, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8486 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3341, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.9931, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "key_pass": 0.6246, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7275, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.9931, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "key_pass": 0.6246, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 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-0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0433, "total": 0.2902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.456022 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.084872 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073914 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.049566 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.038521 } ], "others_margin": -0.138749 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.629612445831299, "model_output": 6.6296, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0778, "total": 6.6296, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061543 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018705 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01849 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.014163 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012126 } ], "others_margin": -0.077668 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1148, "goals": 0.1171, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "shots_on_target": 0.3279, "total_shots": 0.7937, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6296, "minutes": 24.56, "total_pass": 4.9399, "accurate_pass": 3.8453, "duels_won": 1.7139, "total_long_balls": 0.5333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3677, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6139, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.423, "possession_lost": 2.6348, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.2433, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.4802, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0531, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2081, "fouls_drawn": 0.366, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1728, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.5098, "clearances": 0.2768, "blocks": 0.1197, "big_chances_created": 0.1656, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.0993, "offsides": 0.1752, "ball_carries": 1.2575, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4658 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.9984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0089)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1148, "goals": 0.1161, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "shots_on_target": 0.325, "total_shots": 0.7893, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6296, "minutes": 24.56, "total_pass": 4.9399, "accurate_pass": 3.8453, "duels_won": 1.7139, "total_long_balls": 0.5333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3677, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6139, "crosses_total": 0.0013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.423, "possession_lost": 2.6348, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.2433, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.4802, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0531, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2028, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1726, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.5098, "clearances": 0.2768, "blocks": 0.1197, "big_chances_created": 0.1656, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.0993, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.2575, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4658 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0089, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2729, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2081, "after": 1.2028 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 25.7 expected 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1.3169, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.72, "projection_minutes": 24.56, "minutes_scale": 1.0472, "appearance_probability": 0.464 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1202, "goals": 0.1216, "goal_rate": 0.1216, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8282, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.3035, "rating": 6.6296, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 5.1732, "accurate_pass": 4.0269, "duels_won": 1.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.5585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7374, "crosses_total": 0.0014, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9153, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.3965, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.5029, 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"away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0759, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 498, "combined_rank_score": 291.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 351.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.984, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 231.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9675, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico Williams", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Fernandes", "ranking": 493 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Soto", "ranking": 494 }, { "player_name": "Jo Jun-Hyun", "ranking": 495 }, { "player_name": "Nizar El Jmili", "ranking": 496 }, { "player_name": "Marco de las Sias", "ranking": 497 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Ángel López", "ranking": 499 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hye-Seong", "ranking": 500 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Babi", "ranking": 501 }, { "player_name": "Farrukh Sayfiev", "ranking": 502 }, { "player_name": "Dong-min Kim", "ranking": 503 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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"margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.401085 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.171722 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.093896 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.050203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05018 } ], "others_margin": 0.140499 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7196004986763, "model_output": 0.7196, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.248 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.065 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": 0.0928, "total": 0.7196, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.459373 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.167865 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.121546 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.053013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045357 } ], "others_margin": 0.137997 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9674973487854, "model_output": 6.9675, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0314 } ], "others": 0.1205, "total": 6.9675, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078851 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.048258 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.041157 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.037972 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.03138 } ], "others_margin": 0.120577 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 1.1588, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.7285, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1615, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8486 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1466, "goal_rate": 0.1466, "shots_on_target": 0.308, "total_shots": 1.1584, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.7285, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1404, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2239, "tackles_won": 0.4981, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8486 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3341, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, 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"shots_off_target": 0.7275, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.9931, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "key_pass": 0.6246, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7275, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.9931, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "key_pass": 0.6246, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7275, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 1.0407, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.8417, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.9931, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.6246, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7275, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.002, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0407, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9524, "team_expected_assists": 0.8016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.8417, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.62 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0694, "after": 0.0414 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0619, "after": 0.0323 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.9931, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.6246, "rating": 6.9675, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.04, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.367496 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.11507 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112295 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.088023 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.065351 } ], "others_margin": -0.27564 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12974286079406738, "model_output": 0.1297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1456 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 0.1297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.59254 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093593 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.091975 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.0183 } ], "others_margin": -0.102903 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3750992715358734, "model_output": 0.3751, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3807 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0646 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": -0.1283, "total": 0.3751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.380658 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.064604 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037799 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030199 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.021158 } ], "others_margin": -0.128333 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.721785068511963, "model_output": 6.7218, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0852 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 6.7218, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085186 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02855 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.010417 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006086 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.005911 } ], "others_margin": -0.006941 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0438, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.0403, "goal_rate": 0.0403, "shots_on_target": 0.1307, "total_shots": 0.3779, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.64, "total_pass": 16.8222, "accurate_pass": 13.8629, "duels_won": 2.3087, "total_long_balls": 1.8709, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8546, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0083, "crosses_total": 0.1668, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3229, "possession_lost": 3.999, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2915, "aerial_won": 0.6051, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9726, "tackles_won": 0.7332, "tackles": 1.1603, "clearances": 0.3336, "total_contest": 0.1668, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5938, "fouls_drawn": 0.5432, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 4.9919, "total_progression": 8.611, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2472 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.0436, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0401, "shots_on_target": 0.13, "total_shots": 0.3759, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.64, "total_pass": 16.8222, "accurate_pass": 13.8629, "duels_won": 2.3087, "total_long_balls": 1.8709, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8546, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0083, "crosses_total": 0.1659, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3229, "possession_lost": 3.999, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2915, "aerial_won": 0.6051, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9714, "tackles_won": 0.7307, "tackles": 1.1603, "clearances": 0.3336, "total_contest": 0.1668, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5933, "fouls_drawn": 0.5404, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 4.9919, "total_progression": 8.611, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2472 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2738, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3618, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.0437, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goals": 0.0402, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "shots_on_target": 0.1303, "total_shots": 0.3781, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.7, "projection_minutes": 24.64, "minutes_scale": 1.0024, "appearance_probability": 0.523 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3618, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.0437, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goals": 0.0402, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "shots_on_target": 0.1303, "total_shots": 0.3781, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3618, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1303, "total_shots": 0.3781, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 1.0407, xG scale 0.9628, xA scale 0.8417, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3618, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1303, "total_shots": 0.3781, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0416, "creation_factor": 1.1713 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.002, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0407, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9524, "team_expected_assists": 0.8016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9628, "xa_scale": 0.8417, "opponent_lambda": 0.986, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.523 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0366, "after": 0.0184 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.03, "after": 0.0132 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3618, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1303, "total_shots": 0.3781, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0416, "creation_factor": 1.1713, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1561, "fifa_rank": 915.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3618, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1303, "total_shots": 0.3781, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0181, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0416, "creation_factor": 1.1713, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0181, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "scorer_weight": 0.0192, "squad_weight_total": 1.0881, "weight_share": 0.0176, "finishing_factor": 1.0416, "appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3618, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1303, "total_shots": 0.3781, "rating": 6.7218, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0181, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.013, "finishing_factor": 1.0416, "creation_factor": 1.1713, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.013, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "provider_weight": 0.0155, "squad_weight_total": 0.7312, "weight_share": 0.0211, "creation_factor": 1.1713, "appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0, "expected_assists": 0.8, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 447, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.581, "xg_contribution": 0.1689, "xg_multiplier": 1.1485, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.419 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (LW) is slightly favored against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €6M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.169 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Duro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.192, "xg_contribution": 0.3222, "xg_multiplier": 0.9878, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Duro (ST) is evenly matched against Aymeric Laporte and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.322 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dani Raba", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1413, "xg_multiplier": 0.9496, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Raba (ST) is evenly matched against Aymeric Laporte and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.141 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "David Otorbi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1498, "xg_multiplier": 0.9286, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Otorbi (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Aymeric Laporte and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Guido Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.0571, "xg_multiplier": 1.0748, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Guido Rodríguez (CDM) is slightly favored against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pepelu", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.495, "xg_contribution": 0.0368, "xg_multiplier": 1.1099, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.505 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pepelu (CDM) is slightly favored against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Peio Canales", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Pablo Maffeo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "xg_contribution": 0.0886, "xg_multiplier": 1.0622, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Maffeo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.478 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peio Canales (LW) is slightly favored against Pablo Maffeo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3484, "xg_multiplier": 0.9705, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (ST) is evenly matched against Justin De Haas and Mouctar Diakhaby in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.348 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Robert Navarro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.187, "xg_multiplier": 0.9251, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robert Navarro (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Justin De Haas and Mouctar Diakhaby in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Álex Berenguer", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1309, "xg_multiplier": 0.8917, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Berenguer (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Justin De Haas and Mouctar Diakhaby in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "xg_contribution": 0.0474, "xg_multiplier": 0.9252, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.631 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Guido Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.0294, "xg_multiplier": 0.9447, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Gerenabarrena (CDM) is evenly matched against Guido Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.54, "away_midfield_power": 0.474, "home_creative_power": 0.5, "away_creative_power": 0.472, "home_defensive_power": 0.504, "away_defensive_power": 0.488, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.533, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Javier Guerra", "Guido Rodríguez", "Pepelu" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Peio Canales" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Javier Guerra vs Peio Canales", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.008, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.99 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.986, "away_lambda": 1.002, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Areso", "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Duro": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dani Raba": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Otorbi": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Maffeo": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin De Haas": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams", "Robert Navarro", "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mouctar Diakhaby": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams", "Robert Navarro", "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "Dani Raba", "David Otorbi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yeray Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "Dani Raba", "David Otorbi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "opponents": [ "Guido Rodríguez", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Peio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Maffeo", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Robert Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álex Berenguer": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Guido Rodríguez", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "David Otorbi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Dani Raba" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Peio Canales will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1255, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.067, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0022, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.005, "home_midfield_factor": 1.008, "away_midfield_factor": 0.99, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4854, "away_avg_quality": 0.4702, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0152, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.2377, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3102, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.3056, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0498, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8761, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9946 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.008, "result": 1.0025 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0025 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1529 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8651, "result": 0.9974 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 0.9249 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0022, "result": 0.9269 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1255, "result": 1.0524 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0524, "result": 1.0524, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0498, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0524, "result": 1.0524 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0524 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1812, "result": 1.2332 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2469, "result": 1.0083 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0083, "result": 1.008, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.008, "result": 0.9864, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.986 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.986 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.986, "result": 0.986, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.986 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8317, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9613 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9517 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9517 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9517 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0034, "result": 0.9549 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.9651 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.005, "result": 0.9699 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.067, "result": 1.0369 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0369, "result": 1.0369, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0498, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0369, "result": 1.0369 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0369 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1611, "result": 1.1981 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2444, "result": 0.9807 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9807, "result": 0.981, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 0.981, "result": 1.002, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.002 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.002 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.002, "result": 1.002, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.002 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1812, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1611, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.244, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.986, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.002, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0083, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9807, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.986, "final_away_lambda": 1.002 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8651, "attack_index": 0.794, "defense_concede_index": 0.882, "form_multiplier": 0.977, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.23, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.36, "team_ppg": 0.94, "opponent_ppg": 1.35 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0034, "attack_index": 0.918, "defense_concede_index": 1.085, "form_multiplier": 1.023, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.42, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.68, "team_ppg": 1.35, "opponent_ppg": 0.94 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Valencia vs Athletic Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.008, Away 0.981). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.986, Away 1.002 (most likely score 0-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.244, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.986, "away_lambda": 1.002, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.008, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.981 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:33:23Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }