{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0928, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atlético Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1947, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0928 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0803 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0719 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0694 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.062 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0262, "0-1": 0.0593, "0-2": 0.0694, "0-3": 0.0538, "0-4": 0.0313, "0-5": 0.0145, "0-6": 0.0056, "0-7": 0.0019, "0-8": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0339, "1-1": 0.0803, "1-2": 0.0928, "1-3": 0.0719, "1-4": 0.0418, "1-5": 0.0194, "1-6": 0.0075, "1-7": 0.0025, "1-8": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.023, "2-1": 0.0534, "2-2": 0.062, "2-3": 0.0481, "2-4": 0.028, "2-5": 0.013, "2-6": 0.005, "2-7": 0.0017, "3-0": 0.0102, "3-1": 0.0238, "3-2": 0.0277, "3-3": 0.0214, "3-4": 0.0125, "3-5": 0.0058, "3-6": 0.0022, "3-7": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0034, "4-1": 0.008, "4-2": 0.0092, "4-3": 0.0072, "4-4": 0.0042, "4-5": 0.0019, "4-6": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0021, "5-2": 0.0025, "5-3": 0.0019, "5-4": 0.0011, "5-5": 0.0005, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2107, "draw": 0.1947, "away_win": 0.5946 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.708, "under_2_5_goals": 0.292, "btts_yes": 0.6657, "btts_no": 0.3343, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0978, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2626 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 7.02 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 7.08, "ATR": 6.91, "GK": 6.98 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Espanyol 1W-5D-4L vs Atlético Madrid over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Roberto Fernández, Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Javier Hernández vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.28. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.337, "away_lambda": 2.325, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 1, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 5, "home_multiplier": 0.9786, "away_multiplier": 1.0214 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2107, "draw": 0.1947, "away_win": 0.5946 }, "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5946, "fair_spread": -0.988, "fair_total": 3.662, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.337, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 2.325, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.708, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6657, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0978, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2626, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.467, "probability": 0.3731, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jonathan David (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.6659, "probability": 0.4862, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bryan Zaragoza (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.1694, "probability": 0.1558, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alejandro Grimaldo (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.2159, "probability": 0.1942, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.662, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 948, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.0, "possession_home_pct": 46.6, "possession_away_pct": 53.4, "notes": "Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5946, "script": "Atlético Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.99 goals and fair total 3.66.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Espanyol must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atlético Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Atlético Madrid chance creation leans on Jonathan David against Leandro Cabrera, Quilindschy Hartman in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Gabriel Moscardo, Javi Puado, Vanja Drkušić.", "Atlético Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman; bench watchlist: Julián Alvarez, Alex Baena, Morten Hjulmand.", "Assist usage should flow through Javier Hernández, Alejandro Grimaldo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atlético Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.83 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Espanyol is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atlético Madrid.", "Espanyol wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Espanyol": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Roberto Fernández": { "player_id": 1392592, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.467, "goal_rate": 0.414, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0475, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8095, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 7.0517, "dispossessed": 0.5272, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0303, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5616, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9341, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "opponent_faced": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3731, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0464, "finishing_factor": 1.0933, "creation_factor": 0.87, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416299, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1692, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2843, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416327, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.3134, "expected_assists": 0.1532, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.259, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2734, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.62, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0976, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1713, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3459, "combined_rank_score": 1454.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 6.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2903.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8095, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Roberto Fernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marco Sportiello", "ranking": 3454 }, { "player_name": "Arsène Kouassi", "ranking": 3455 }, { "player_name": "Leif Davis", "ranking": 3456 }, { "player_name": "Ismaëlo Ganiou", "ranking": 3457 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Giroud", "ranking": 3458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eric Dier", "ranking": 3460 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Nygren", "ranking": 3461 }, { "player_name": "Arnau Tenas", "ranking": 3462 }, { "player_name": "Yvon Mvogo", "ranking": 3463 }, { "player_name": "Duje Ćaleta-Car", "ranking": 3464 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.779, "history_matches": 46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 46, "data_confidence": 0.779, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1861 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0546 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0333 } ], "others": -0.1225, "total": 0.5556, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.244009 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065697 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.063624 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059915 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 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0.0651 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0517 } ], "others": 0.2993, "total": 1.4308, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.217823 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.12505 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.066408 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063007 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.04679 } ], "others_margin": 0.234639 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.079163074493408, "model_output": 7.0792, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goals": 0.1711, "goal_rate": 0.1711, "shots_on_target": 0.5354, "total_shots": 1.6283, "expected_assists": 0.1507, "key_pass": 1.43, "rating": 7.0792, "minutes": 76.26, "total_pass": 23.2994, "accurate_pass": 18.4438, "duels_won": 4.8547, "total_long_balls": 1.9983, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0809, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.799, "crosses_total": 4.6601, "crosses_accurate": 1.1367, "touches": 43.191, "possession_lost": 14.3582, "dispossessed": 0.3188, "duels_lost": 4.8765, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 5.1732, "won_contest": 2.4046, "ball_recovery": 2.661, "challenges_lost": 0.7971, "fouls": 0.5957, "fouls_drawn": 1.4758, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0448, 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12.799, "crosses_total": 4.6601, "crosses_accurate": 1.1367, "touches": 43.191, "possession_lost": 14.3582, "dispossessed": 0.3188, "duels_lost": 4.8765, "aerial_lost": 0.3961, "total_contest": 5.1732, "won_contest": 2.4046, "ball_recovery": 2.661, "challenges_lost": 0.7971, "fouls": 0.5957, "fouls_drawn": 1.4758, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0448, "tackles_won": 0.5437, "tackles": 0.9295, "clearances": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2468, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2317, "offsides": 0.2957, "ball_carries": 20.1178, "total_progression": 102.124, "progressive_carries": 5.2951, "shots_off_target": 1.0928 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0969, "goals": 0.128, "goal_rate": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.4005, "total_shots": 1.218, 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0.078721 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.071896 } ], "others_margin": 0.060075 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6768975853919983, "model_output": 0.6769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0373 } ], "others": 0.1101, "total": 0.6769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.176086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136809 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.093841 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079433 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.068104 } ], "others_margin": 0.17718 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.76213800907135, "model_output": 1.7621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1686 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0532 } ], "others": 0.1898, "total": 1.7621, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.348791 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.168562 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.057632 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.054999 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.05322 } ], "others_margin": 0.18984 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.761565685272217, "model_output": 6.7616, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 6.7616, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.031973 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023345 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021271 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.021252 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02041 } ], "others_margin": -0.014061 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.425, "expected_assists": 0.1375, "assists": 0.2186, "assist_rate": 0.2186, "expected_goals": 0.1574, "goals": 0.189, "goal_rate": 0.189, "shots_on_target": 0.6749, "total_shots": 1.7569, "rating": 6.7616, "minutes": 78.02, "total_pass": 20.5863, "accurate_pass": 16.8628, "duels_won": 3.5944, "total_long_balls": 1.0911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5392, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1137, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2579, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6049, "crosses_total": 2.0181, "crosses_accurate": 0.301, "touches": 39.5561, "possession_lost": 14.5684, "dispossessed": 3.0049, "duels_lost": 8.0591, "aerial_won": 0.2056, "aerial_lost": 0.527, "interceptions": 0.1262, "tackles_won": 0.5898, "tackles": 0.9507, "clearances": 0.0659, "total_contest": 2.5065, "won_contest": 0.835, "challenges_lost": 1.2098, "fouls": 1.8982, "fouls_drawn": 1.6031, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5579, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1304, "ball_carries": 13.9606, "total_progression": 91.8727, "progressive_carries": 2.3078, "shots_off_target": 1.0819 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0417)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.425, "expected_assists": 0.1375, "assists": 0.2528, "assist_rate": 0.2528, "expected_goals": 0.1574, "goals": 0.1811, "goal_rate": 0.1811, "shots_on_target": 0.6612, "total_shots": 1.7274, "rating": 6.7616, "minutes": 78.02, "total_pass": 20.5863, "accurate_pass": 16.8628, "duels_won": 3.5944, "total_long_balls": 1.0911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5392, 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1157, "goals": 0.1373, "goal_rate": 0.1373, "shots_on_target": 0.4391, "total_shots": 1.2705, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7251, "minutes": 79.21, "total_pass": 17.2915, "accurate_pass": 14.8688, "duels_won": 3.2003, "total_long_balls": 0.75, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1504, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5492, "crosses_total": 2.4658, "crosses_accurate": 0.4223, "touches": 32.7273, "possession_lost": 9.0679, "dispossessed": 0.9367, "duels_lost": 5.4604, "aerial_lost": 0.7077, "total_contest": 2.6243, "won_contest": 0.9416, "ball_recovery": 4.3377, "challenges_lost": 0.8326, "fouls": 1.3713, "fouls_drawn": 1.2652, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "interceptions": 0.8672, 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"crosses_total": 2.4664, "crosses_accurate": 0.4223, "touches": 32.7273, "possession_lost": 9.0679, "dispossessed": 0.9367, "duels_lost": 5.4604, "aerial_lost": 0.7077, "total_contest": 2.6243, "won_contest": 0.9416, "ball_recovery": 4.3377, "challenges_lost": 0.8326, "fouls": 1.3738, "fouls_drawn": 1.2651, "assists": 0.083, "assist_rate": 0.083, "interceptions": 0.8761, "tackles_won": 0.6851, "tackles": 0.946, "clearances": 0.506, "blocks": 0.078, "big_chances_created": 0.2583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0166, "xgot": 0.099, "offsides": 0.1633, "ball_carries": 12.2534, "total_progression": 78.2999, "progressive_carries": 3.5494, "shots_off_target": 0.8314 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8801, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8672, "after": 0.8761 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats 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"offsides": 0.1633, "ball_carries": 12.2534, "total_progression": 78.2999, "progressive_carries": 3.5494, "shots_off_target": 0.8314 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0895, "goals": 0.108, "goal_rate": 0.108, "shots_on_target": 0.3387, "total_shots": 0.9831, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7251, "minutes": 79.21, "total_pass": 17.2915, "accurate_pass": 14.8688, "duels_won": 3.2003, "total_long_balls": 0.75, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1504, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5492, "crosses_total": 2.4664, "crosses_accurate": 0.4223, "touches": 32.7273, "possession_lost": 9.0679, "dispossessed": 0.9367, "duels_lost": 5.4604, "aerial_lost": 0.7077, "total_contest": 2.6243, "won_contest": 0.9416, "ball_recovery": 4.3377, "challenges_lost": 0.8326, "fouls": 1.3738, "fouls_drawn": 1.2651, "assists": 0.083, "assist_rate": 0.083, "interceptions": 0.8761, "tackles_won": 0.6851, "tackles": 0.946, "clearances": 0.506, "blocks": 0.078, "big_chances_created": 0.2583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0128, "xgot": 0.0766, "offsides": 0.1633, "ball_carries": 12.2534, "total_progression": 78.2999, "progressive_carries": 3.5494, "shots_off_target": 0.6434, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7739, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "opponent_faced": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7739, "skill_edge": -0.0938, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.5318, "defender_skill": 0.7403, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Robin Le Normand", "market_value": 17200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6589 }, { "player": "Cristian Romero", "market_value": 37000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8218 } ], "xg_override": 0.0895 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2703, "after": 0.9831 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8314, "after": 0.6434 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4376, "after": 0.3387 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1395, "after": 0.108 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1157, "after": 0.0895 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.099, "after": 0.0766 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0895, "goal_rate": 0.108, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3387, "total_shots": 0.9831, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7251, "minutes": 79.21, "total_pass": 17.2915, "accurate_pass": 14.8688, "duels_won": 3.2003, "total_long_balls": 0.75, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1504, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5492, "crosses_total": 2.4664, "crosses_accurate": 0.4223, "touches": 32.7273, "possession_lost": 9.0679, "dispossessed": 0.9367, "duels_lost": 5.4604, "aerial_lost": 0.7077, "total_contest": 2.6243, "won_contest": 0.9416, "ball_recovery": 4.3377, "challenges_lost": 0.8326, "fouls": 1.3738, "fouls_drawn": 1.2651, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8761, "tackles_won": 0.6851, "tackles": 0.946, "clearances": 0.506, "blocks": 0.078, "big_chances_created": 0.2583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0128, "xgot": 0.0766, "offsides": 0.1633, "ball_carries": 12.2534, "total_progression": 78.2999, "progressive_carries": 3.5494, "shots_off_target": 0.6434, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7739, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "opponent_faced": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goal_rate": 0.108, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3387, "total_shots": 0.9831, "expected_assists": 0.1002, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7251, "minutes": 79.21, "total_pass": 17.2915, "accurate_pass": 14.8688, "duels_won": 3.2003, "total_long_balls": 0.75, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1504, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5492, "crosses_total": 2.4664, "crosses_accurate": 0.4223, "touches": 32.7273, "possession_lost": 9.0679, "dispossessed": 0.9367, "duels_lost": 5.4604, "aerial_lost": 0.7077, "total_contest": 2.6243, "won_contest": 0.9416, "ball_recovery": 4.3377, "challenges_lost": 0.8326, "fouls": 1.3738, "fouls_drawn": 1.2651, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8761, "tackles_won": 0.6851, "tackles": 0.946, "clearances": 0.506, "blocks": 0.078, "big_chances_created": 0.2583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0128, "xgot": 0.0955, "offsides": 0.1633, "ball_carries": 12.2534, "total_progression": 78.2999, "progressive_carries": 3.5494, "shots_off_target": 0.6434, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7739, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "opponent_faced": "Robin Le Normand, Cristian Romero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1326, "creation_factor": 0.9555 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0895, "after": 0.1116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0892, "after": 0.1002 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_rank": 2897.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goal_rate": 0.108, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3387, "total_shots": 0.9831, "expected_assists": 0.1002, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7251, "minutes": 79.21, "total_pass": 17.2915, "accurate_pass": 14.8688, "duels_won": 3.2003, "total_long_balls": 0.75, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1504, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5492, "crosses_total": 2.4664, "crosses_accurate": 0.4223, "touches": 32.7273, "possession_lost": 9.0679, "dispossessed": 0.9367, "duels_lost": 5.4604, "aerial_lost": 0.7077, "total_contest": 2.6243, "won_contest": 0.9416, "ball_recovery": 4.3377, "challenges_lost": 0.8326, "fouls": 1.3738, "fouls_drawn": 1.2651, 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"Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6803, "expected_assists": 0.0627, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1469, "total_shots": 0.4828, "rating": 6.7674, "minutes": 75.56, "total_pass": 33.0872, "accurate_pass": 28.0288, "duels_won": 3.4107, "total_long_balls": 1.5532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7671, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4494, "crosses_total": 0.9522, "crosses_accurate": 0.277, "touches": 44.7892, "possession_lost": 7.6511, "dispossessed": 0.4871, "duels_lost": 4.0338, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7178, "interceptions": 0.749, "tackles_won": 0.9837, "tackles": 1.805, "clearances": 1.382, "total_contest": 0.3746, "won_contest": 0.1456, 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, "challenges_lost": 0.8978, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0965, "blocks": 0.1937, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1331, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "expected_assists": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 8.9262, "total_progression": 22.0028, "progressive_carries": 0.2535, "key_pass": 0.9086, "shots_off_target": 0.2856 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0018, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, "challenges_lost": 0.8978, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0965, "blocks": 0.1937, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1331, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "expected_assists": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 8.9262, "total_progression": 22.0028, "progressive_carries": 0.2535, "key_pass": 0.9086, "shots_off_target": 0.2856 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, "challenges_lost": 0.8978, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0965, "blocks": 0.1937, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1331, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "expected_assists": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 8.9262, "total_progression": 22.0028, "progressive_carries": 0.2535, "key_pass": 0.9086, "shots_off_target": 0.2856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, "challenges_lost": 0.8978, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0965, "blocks": 0.1937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "expected_assists": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 8.9262, "total_progression": 22.0028, "progressive_carries": 0.2535, "key_pass": 0.9086, "shots_off_target": 0.2856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, "challenges_lost": 0.8978, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0965, "blocks": 0.1937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0195, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 8.9262, "total_progression": 22.0028, "progressive_carries": 0.2535, "key_pass": 0.9086, "shots_off_target": 0.2856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0847, "after": 0.0951 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, "challenges_lost": 0.8978, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0965, "blocks": 0.1937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0195, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 8.9262, "total_progression": 22.0028, "progressive_carries": 0.2535, "key_pass": 0.9086, "shots_off_target": 0.2856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3658, "fifa_rank": 2417.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, 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"allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0193, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0156, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0109, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0403, "tackles": 2.1047, "tackles_won": 1.3425, "clearances": 2.4368, "aerial_won": 0.6884, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 40.4311, "accurate_pass": 31.2644, "duels_won": 4.1055, "total_long_balls": 6.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1302, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1343, "crosses_total": 2.6846, "crosses_accurate": 0.3156, "touches": 61.9735, "possession_lost": 14.1699, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 2.767, "aerial_lost": 0.5519, "total_contest": 0.7541, "won_contest": 0.4456, "ball_recovery": 3.6449, "challenges_lost": 0.8978, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0965, "blocks": 0.1937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0195, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 8.9262, "total_progression": 22.0028, "progressive_carries": 0.2535, "key_pass": 0.9086, "shots_off_target": 0.2856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0193, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0907, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0907, "assist_rate": 0.1331, "provider_weight": 0.1189, "squad_weight_total": 1.0297, "weight_share": 0.1154, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.193, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.193, "runner_up": "Bryan Zaragoza", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1355, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Leandro Cabrera": { "player_id": 81992, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 190, "market_value": 930000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8246, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 9.1676, "dispossessed": 0.0454, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0539, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0259, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 0, 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"season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1658, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 40, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416327, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0713, 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"away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0584, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083422, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1498, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { 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3.0943543910980225, "model_output": 3.0944, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2289 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2531 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2513 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2249 } ], "others": 0.2403, "total": 3.0944, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.319551 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113963 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.112553 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.100449 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.08207 } ], "others_margin": 0.080857 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7036699056625366, "model_output": 0.7037, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.019 } ], "others": 0.0635, "total": 0.7037, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065895 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.041079 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020341 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.019391 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019029 } ], "others_margin": 0.063436 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.824598789215088, "model_output": 6.8246, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0232, "total": 6.8246, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.017719 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.015617 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014974 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010485 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.008915 } ], "others_margin": 0.023106 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.1682, "tackles_won": 0.6486, "clearances": 6.6264, "aerial_won": 3.0875, "total_shots": 0.7022, "rating": 6.8246, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.9985, "accurate_pass": 39.8129, "duels_won": 4.1624, "total_long_balls": 7.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0877, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0241, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0281, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7848, "crosses_total": 0.3156, "crosses_accurate": 0.0291, "touches": 62.6132, "possession_lost": 9.1676, "dispossessed": 0.0454, "duels_lost": 3.3086, "aerial_lost": 1.7972, "total_contest": 0.0644, "won_contest": 0.0262, "ball_recovery": 1.9784, "challenges_lost": 0.2535, "fouls": 1.219, "fouls_drawn": 0.3088, "blocks": 0.6013, "goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0085, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "shots_on_target": 0.1418, "big_chances_created": 0.0026, "xgot": 0.0208, "ball_carries": 11.5882, "total_progression": 40.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.2909, "key_pass": 0.0837, "shots_off_target": 0.5604 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 930000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.1682, "tackles_won": 0.6486, "clearances": 6.6264, "aerial_won": 3.0875, "total_shots": 0.7022, "rating": 6.8246, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.9985, "accurate_pass": 39.8129, "duels_won": 4.1624, "total_long_balls": 7.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0877, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0241, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0281, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7848, "crosses_total": 0.3156, "crosses_accurate": 0.0291, "touches": 62.6132, "possession_lost": 9.1676, "dispossessed": 0.0454, "duels_lost": 3.3086, "aerial_lost": 1.7972, "total_contest": 0.0644, "won_contest": 0.0262, "ball_recovery": 1.9784, "challenges_lost": 0.2535, "fouls": 1.219, "fouls_drawn": 0.3088, "blocks": 0.6013, "goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0085, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "shots_on_target": 0.1418, "big_chances_created": 0.0026, "xgot": 0.0208, "ball_carries": 11.5882, "total_progression": 40.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.2909, "key_pass": 0.0837, "shots_off_target": 0.5604 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.1682, "tackles_won": 0.6486, "clearances": 6.6264, "aerial_won": 3.0875, "total_shots": 0.7022, "rating": 6.8246, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.9985, "accurate_pass": 39.8129, "duels_won": 4.1624, "total_long_balls": 7.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0877, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0241, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0281, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7848, "crosses_total": 0.3156, "crosses_accurate": 0.0291, "touches": 62.6132, "possession_lost": 9.1676, "dispossessed": 0.0454, "duels_lost": 3.3086, "aerial_lost": 1.7972, "total_contest": 0.0644, "won_contest": 0.0262, "ball_recovery": 1.9784, "challenges_lost": 0.2535, "fouls": 1.219, "fouls_drawn": 0.3088, "blocks": 0.6013, "goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0085, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "shots_on_target": 0.1418, "big_chances_created": 0.0026, "xgot": 0.0208, "ball_carries": 11.5882, "total_progression": 40.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.2909, "key_pass": 0.0837, "shots_off_target": 0.5604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.1682, "tackles_won": 0.6486, "clearances": 6.6264, "aerial_won": 3.0875, "total_shots": 0.7022, "rating": 6.8246, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.9985, "accurate_pass": 39.8129, "duels_won": 4.1624, "total_long_balls": 7.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0877, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0241, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0281, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7848, "crosses_total": 0.3156, "crosses_accurate": 0.0291, "touches": 62.6132, "possession_lost": 9.1676, "dispossessed": 0.0454, "duels_lost": 3.3086, "aerial_lost": 1.7972, "total_contest": 0.0644, "won_contest": 0.0262, "ball_recovery": 1.9784, "challenges_lost": 0.2535, "fouls": 1.219, "fouls_drawn": 0.3088, "blocks": 0.6013, "goal_rate": 0.0085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0432, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "shots_on_target": 0.1418, "big_chances_created": 0.0026, "xgot": 0.0208, "ball_carries": 11.5882, "total_progression": 40.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.2909, "key_pass": 0.0837, "shots_off_target": 0.5604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.1682, "tackles_won": 0.6486, "clearances": 6.6264, "aerial_won": 3.0875, "total_shots": 0.7022, "rating": 6.8246, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.9985, "accurate_pass": 39.8129, "duels_won": 4.1624, "total_long_balls": 7.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0877, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0241, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0281, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7848, "crosses_total": 0.3156, "crosses_accurate": 0.0291, "touches": 62.6132, "possession_lost": 9.1676, "dispossessed": 0.0454, "duels_lost": 3.3086, "aerial_lost": 1.7972, "total_contest": 0.0644, "won_contest": 0.0262, "ball_recovery": 1.9784, "challenges_lost": 0.2535, "fouls": 1.219, "fouls_drawn": 0.3088, "blocks": 0.6013, "goal_rate": 0.0085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0539, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "shots_on_target": 0.1418, "big_chances_created": 0.0026, "xgot": 0.0259, "ball_carries": 11.5882, "total_progression": 40.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.2909, "key_pass": 0.0837, "shots_off_target": 0.5604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0432, "after": 0.0539 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"shots_on_target": 0.1418, "big_chances_created": 0.0026, "xgot": 0.0259, "ball_carries": 11.5882, "total_progression": 40.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.2909, "key_pass": 0.0837, "shots_off_target": 0.5604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 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"allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0085, "scorer_weight": 0.0431, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0302, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.1682, "tackles_won": 0.6486, "clearances": 6.6264, "aerial_won": 3.0875, "total_shots": 0.7022, "rating": 6.8246, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.9985, "accurate_pass": 39.8129, "duels_won": 4.1624, "total_long_balls": 7.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0877, 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"pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0525, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0372, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0303, "squad_weight_total": 1.0297, "weight_share": 0.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.193, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.193, "runner_up": "Bryan Zaragoza", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1355, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Clemens Riedel": { "player_id": 1129360, "position": "D", "position_depth": 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"progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0394, "total": 0.388, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.119205 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048044 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023699 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014632 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014191 } ], "others_margin": -0.039447 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7523393630981445, "model_output": 6.7523, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": 0.0103, "total": 6.7523, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019764 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015887 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.008641 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007862 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007716 } ], "others_margin": 0.010226 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9404, "tackles": 1.1592, "tackles_won": 0.6711, "clearances": 5.2025, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "total_shots": 0.387, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 85.51, "total_pass": 46.7707, "accurate_pass": 40.4684, "duels_won": 4.0723, "total_long_balls": 5.9195, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.542, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9264, "crosses_total": 0.0284, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 58.6721, "possession_lost": 7.0015, "dispossessed": 0.1104, "duels_lost": 3.7272, "aerial_lost": 1.6946, "total_contest": 0.48, "won_contest": 0.48, "ball_recovery": 2.513, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 1.7557, "fouls_drawn": 0.3659, "blocks": 0.3928, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0083, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3900000, "quality_factor": 0.4486, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0115)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9296, "tackles": 1.1592, "tackles_won": 0.6762, "clearances": 5.2025, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "total_shots": 0.3889, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 85.51, "total_pass": 46.7707, "accurate_pass": 40.4684, "duels_won": 4.0723, "total_long_balls": 5.9195, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.542, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9264, "crosses_total": 0.0281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 58.6721, "possession_lost": 7.0015, "dispossessed": 0.1104, "duels_lost": 3.7272, "aerial_lost": 1.6946, "total_contest": 0.48, "won_contest": 0.48, "ball_recovery": 2.513, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 1.7741, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.3928, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0082, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0115, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9501, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.7557, "after": 1.7741 }, { 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0.3928, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0082, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9296, "tackles": 1.1592, "tackles_won": 0.6762, "clearances": 5.2025, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "total_shots": 0.3907, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 85.51, "total_pass": 46.7707, "accurate_pass": 40.4684, "duels_won": 4.0723, "total_long_balls": 5.9195, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.542, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9264, "crosses_total": 0.0281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 58.6721, "possession_lost": 7.0015, "dispossessed": 0.1104, "duels_lost": 3.7272, "aerial_lost": 1.6946, "total_contest": 0.48, "won_contest": 0.48, "ball_recovery": 2.513, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 1.7741, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.3928, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0082, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9296, "tackles": 1.1592, "tackles_won": 0.6762, "clearances": 5.2025, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "total_shots": 0.3907, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 85.51, "total_pass": 46.7707, "accurate_pass": 40.4684, "duels_won": 4.0723, "total_long_balls": 5.9195, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.542, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9264, "crosses_total": 0.0281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 58.6721, "possession_lost": 7.0015, "dispossessed": 0.1104, "duels_lost": 3.7272, "aerial_lost": 1.6946, "total_contest": 0.48, "won_contest": 0.48, "ball_recovery": 2.513, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 1.7741, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.3928, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9296, "tackles": 1.1592, "tackles_won": 0.6762, "clearances": 5.2025, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "total_shots": 0.3907, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 85.51, "total_pass": 46.7707, "accurate_pass": 40.4684, "duels_won": 4.0723, "total_long_balls": 5.9195, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.542, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9264, "crosses_total": 0.0281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 58.6721, "possession_lost": 7.0015, "dispossessed": 0.1104, "duels_lost": 3.7272, "aerial_lost": 1.6946, "total_contest": 0.48, "won_contest": 0.48, "ball_recovery": 2.513, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 1.7741, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.3928, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0066, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.015, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 0.9749 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9296, "tackles": 1.1592, "tackles_won": 0.6762, "clearances": 5.2025, "aerial_won": 2.0818, "total_shots": 0.3907, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 85.51, "total_pass": 46.7707, "accurate_pass": 40.4684, "duels_won": 4.0723, "total_long_balls": 5.9195, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0555, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.542, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9264, "crosses_total": 0.0281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 58.6721, "possession_lost": 7.0015, "dispossessed": 0.1104, "duels_lost": 3.7272, "aerial_lost": 1.6946, "total_contest": 0.48, "won_contest": 0.48, "ball_recovery": 2.513, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 1.7741, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.3928, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0066, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.015, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 0.9749, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5074, "fifa_rank": 5928.0, "fifa_source": "EA 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"blocks": 0.3928, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0082, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0066, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.015, "ball_carries": 13.5852, "total_progression": 53.1413, "progressive_carries": 0.5584, "key_pass": 0.0575, "shots_off_target": 0.1534, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0066, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 0.9749, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0066, 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"margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128451 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.083951 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.04243 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035531 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.018438 } ], "others_margin": -0.041822 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4480043649673462, "model_output": 1.448, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.152 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0895 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0527 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.4338, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.131027 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05118 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.025461 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023299 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.011719 } ], "others_margin": -0.02138 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774013519287109, "model_output": 6.774, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0026, quality 0.589)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0383, "tackles": 2.0009, "tackles_won": 1.2521, "clearances": 4.1865, "aerial_won": 1.4518, "total_shots": 0.4349, "rating": 6.774, "minutes": 88.2, "total_pass": 28.5234, "accurate_pass": 22.5583, "duels_won": 5.2057, "total_long_balls": 3.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6637, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5787, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9796, "crosses_total": 2.6746, "crosses_accurate": 0.7336, "touches": 52.7296, "possession_lost": 10.8337, "dispossessed": 0.1944, "duels_lost": 3.8269, "aerial_lost": 0.9403, "total_contest": 0.548, "won_contest": 0.3253, "ball_recovery": 2.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.4969, "fouls": 2.4269, "fouls_drawn": 0.812, "blocks": 0.543, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1092, "assist_rate": 0.1092, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1115, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1222, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1579, "total_progression": 35.1675, "progressive_carries": 0.9412, "key_pass": 0.4831, "shots_off_target": 0.4349 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15900000, "quality_factor": 0.5889, "boost_factor": 1.0026, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0419, "tackles": 2.0009, "tackles_won": 1.244, "clearances": 4.1865, "aerial_won": 1.4518, "total_shots": 0.429, "rating": 6.774, "minutes": 88.2, "total_pass": 28.5234, "accurate_pass": 22.5583, "duels_won": 5.2057, "total_long_balls": 3.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6637, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5787, 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0.4969, "fouls": 2.425, "fouls_drawn": 0.801, "blocks": 0.543, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1115, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1222, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1579, "total_progression": 35.1675, "progressive_carries": 0.9412, "key_pass": 0.4831, "shots_off_target": 0.4349 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0419, "tackles": 2.0009, "tackles_won": 1.244, "clearances": 4.1865, "aerial_won": 1.4518, "total_shots": 0.4349, "rating": 6.774, "minutes": 88.2, "total_pass": 28.5234, "accurate_pass": 22.5583, "duels_won": 5.2057, "total_long_balls": 3.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6637, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5787, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8581, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Koke", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0419, "tackles": 2.0009, "tackles_won": 1.244, "clearances": 4.1865, "aerial_won": 1.4518, "total_shots": 0.4349, "rating": 6.774, "minutes": 88.2, "total_pass": 28.5234, "accurate_pass": 22.5583, "duels_won": 5.2057, "total_long_balls": 3.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6637, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5787, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9796, "crosses_total": 2.687, "crosses_accurate": 0.7336, "touches": 52.7296, "possession_lost": 10.8337, "dispossessed": 0.1944, "duels_lost": 3.8269, 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}, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0419, "tackles": 2.0009, "tackles_won": 1.244, "clearances": 4.1865, "aerial_won": 1.4518, "total_shots": 0.4349, "rating": 6.774, "minutes": 88.2, "total_pass": 28.5234, "accurate_pass": 22.5583, "duels_won": 5.2057, "total_long_balls": 3.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6637, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5787, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9796, "crosses_total": 2.687, "crosses_accurate": 0.7336, "touches": 52.7296, "possession_lost": 10.8337, "dispossessed": 0.1944, "duels_lost": 3.8269, "aerial_lost": 0.9403, "total_contest": 0.548, "won_contest": 0.3253, "ball_recovery": 2.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.4969, "fouls": 2.425, "fouls_drawn": 0.801, "blocks": 0.543, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1252, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1222, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1579, "total_progression": 35.1675, "progressive_carries": 0.9412, "key_pass": 0.4831, "shots_off_target": 0.4349, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Koke", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9765 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1115, "after": 0.1252 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0419, "tackles": 2.0009, "tackles_won": 1.244, "clearances": 4.1865, "aerial_won": 1.4518, "total_shots": 0.4349, "rating": 6.774, "minutes": 88.2, "total_pass": 28.5234, "accurate_pass": 22.5583, "duels_won": 5.2057, "total_long_balls": 3.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6637, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5787, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9796, "crosses_total": 2.687, "crosses_accurate": 0.7336, "touches": 52.7296, "possession_lost": 10.8337, "dispossessed": 0.1944, "duels_lost": 3.8269, "aerial_lost": 0.9403, "total_contest": 0.548, "won_contest": 0.3253, "ball_recovery": 2.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.4969, "fouls": 2.425, "fouls_drawn": 0.801, "blocks": 0.543, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1252, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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{ "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016818 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.016738 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.015633 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.015304 } ], "others_margin": -0.038535 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.015650272369385, "model_output": 7.0157, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0133, "total": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, "ball_recovery": 13.5839, "high_claims": 4.3948, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 1.0654, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0654, "saves_inside_box": 2.5037, "possession_lost": 11.3999, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0246 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 290000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, "ball_recovery": 13.5839, "high_claims": 4.3948, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 1.0654, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0654, "saves_inside_box": 2.5037, "possession_lost": 11.3999, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0246 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, "ball_recovery": 13.5839, "high_claims": 4.3948, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 1.0654, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0654, "saves_inside_box": 2.5037, "possession_lost": 11.3999, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0246, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.1749, "shots_faced": 20.7, "expected_saves": 5.07, "high_pressure_saves": 1.74, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 2.1749 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, "ball_recovery": 13.5839, "high_claims": 4.3948, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 1.0654, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0654, "saves_inside_box": 2.5037, "possession_lost": 11.3999, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0246, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.1749, "shots_faced": 20.7, "expected_saves": 5.07, "high_pressure_saves": 1.74, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, "ball_recovery": 13.5839, "high_claims": 4.3948, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 1.0654, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0654, "saves_inside_box": 2.5037, "possession_lost": 11.3999, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0246, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.1749, "shots_faced": 22.1, "expected_saves": 5.41, "high_pressure_saves": 1.86, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 20.7, "after": 22.1 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 5.07, "after": 5.41 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.74, "after": 1.86 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, "ball_recovery": 13.5839, "high_claims": 4.3948, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 1.0654, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0654, "saves_inside_box": 2.5037, "possession_lost": 11.3999, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0246, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.1749, "shots_faced": 22.1, "expected_saves": 5.41, "high_pressure_saves": 1.86, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 24, "fifa_rank": 15.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 89.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.815, "goals_prevented": -0.0474, "rating": 7.0157, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.8627, "accurate_pass": 15.3685, "total_long_balls": 14.6494, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1551, "touches": 44.6671, "clearances": 0.5327, "ball_recovery": 13.5839, "high_claims": 4.3948, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 1.0654, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0654, "saves_inside_box": 2.5037, "possession_lost": 11.3999, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, 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0.193, "runner_up": "Bryan Zaragoza", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1355, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Marko Dmitrović": { "player_id": 94527, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 194, "market_value": 650000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0027, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 6, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, 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"home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -1.0696 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416327, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.5262 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 18, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0954 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7879 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1310, "combined_rank_score": 568.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 957.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9299, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9979, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Espanyol", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (44 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8111, "goals_prevented": 0.0177, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5859, "accurate_pass": 16.4781, "total_long_balls": 14.4926, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4232, "touches": 38.9317, "clearances": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 10.9523, "high_claims": 1.8074, "punches": 0.6176, "aerial_won": 0.2246, "sweeper_actions": 1.6054, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4353, "saves_inside_box": 2.0161, "possession_lost": 9.2489, "duels_won": 0.3388, "duels_lost": 0.2334, "total_contest": 0.0922, "won_contest": 0.0922, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1592, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3167 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-16T10:30:08.177787+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.4232, "save_contribution": 3.3589, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8664, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.3167, "passValueNormalized": 0.0831, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 14.6673 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.811122179031372, "model_output": 2.8111, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.212 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.018 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 2.8111, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074797 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.017608 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.007885 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007728 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.006363 } ], "others_margin": -0.009965 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.017661388963460922, "model_output": 0.0177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": 0.0274, "total": 0.0177, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.01973 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.018053 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.015814 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.013022 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.012026 } ], "others_margin": 0.027287 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.929892539978027, "model_output": 6.9299, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 6.9299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.025755 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.018803 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01584 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": -0.01082 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010772 } ], "others_margin": -0.007065 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8052, "goals_prevented": 0.0176, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1589, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 650000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7862, "goals_prevented": 0.0176, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1568, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8052, "after": 2.7862 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4294, "goals_prevented": 0.0027, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4294, "goals_prevented": 0.0027, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4294, "goals_prevented": 0.0027, "rating": 6.9299, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"others_margin": 0.003431 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4804310202598572, "model_output": 0.4804, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7772 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0384, "total": 0.4804, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.817727 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.055236 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.040101 }, { 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"total": 1.3414, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.01218 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.179345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.122837 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.070684 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.057466 } ], "others_margin": 0.0009 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3799079954624176, "model_output": 0.3799, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8672 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0233 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 0.3799, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.993295 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.293341 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087374 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079393 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.058999 } ], "others_margin": -0.068304 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14338922500610352, "model_output": 0.1434, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1683 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0771 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.1434, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.168324 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077068 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010842 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010799 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010745 } ], "others_margin": -0.053334 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.616983413696289, "model_output": 6.617, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0617, "total": 6.617, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035848 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.027217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020418 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011258 } ], "others_margin": -0.061669 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9931, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3918, "tackles": 0.4771, "tackles_won": 0.2624, "clearances": 1.3322, "aerial_won": 0.3773, "total_shots": 0.1424, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 14.78, "total_pass": 20.886, "accurate_pass": 16.7186, "duels_won": 2.1985, "total_long_balls": 4.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9352, "total_own_half_passes": 13.913, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7761, "possession_lost": 4.1673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5914, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9845, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9352, "fouls_drawn": 0.9845, "blocks": 0.6562, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8417, "total_progression": 7.7315, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1424 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9931, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0352)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.378, "tackles": 0.4771, "tackles_won": 0.2621, "clearances": 1.3322, "aerial_won": 0.3773, "total_shots": 0.1374, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 14.78, "total_pass": 20.886, "accurate_pass": 16.7186, "duels_won": 2.1985, "total_long_balls": 4.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9352, "total_own_half_passes": 13.913, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7761, "possession_lost": 4.1673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5914, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9845, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9632, "blocks": 0.6562, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8417, "total_progression": 7.7315, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1424 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0352, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1642, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9845, "after": 0.9632 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9352, "after": 0.9156 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3918, "after": 0.378 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.1424, "after": 0.1374 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.8 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.91, "projection_minutes": 14.78, "minutes_scale": 1.3471, "appearance_probability": 0.412 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.947 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.412 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.947, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 811, "fifa_rank": 673.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.947, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.412, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0013, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.947, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0013, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0012, "squad_weight_total": 1.0297, "weight_share": 0.0012, "creation_factor": 0.947, "appearance_weight": 0.412, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.193, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.193, "runner_up": "Bryan Zaragoza", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1355, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Unai Núñez": { "player_id": 892521, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 186, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8089, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 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0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8235 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1203 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0218 } ], "others": -0.0287, "total": 0.6344, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.911031 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.196553 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.050162 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.034332 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.03239 } ], "others_margin": -0.044164 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22356432676315308, "model_output": 0.2236, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2557 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0287, "total": 0.2236, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.25575 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.019912 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.016602 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011203 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.008214 } ], "others_margin": -0.028712 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8088507652282715, "model_output": 6.8089, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0396, "total": 6.8089, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016789 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013654 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.011977 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.011822 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008683 } ], "others_margin": 0.039476 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4328, "tackles": 0.6894, "tackles_won": 0.3739, "clearances": 1.5696, "aerial_won": 0.6317, "total_shots": 0.2227, "rating": 6.8089, "minutes": 27.1, "total_pass": 19.8715, "accurate_pass": 16.7747, "duels_won": 1.7206, "total_long_balls": 4.1506, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3016, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9145, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5699, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8603, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.444, "possession_lost": 3.871, "dispossessed": 0.3871, "duels_lost": 1.4409, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7742, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3871, "fouls_drawn": 0.5593, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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-2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.569773 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.440724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.231133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.129495 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.078788 } ], "others_margin": -0.218206 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.02606886997818947, "model_output": 0.0261, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0261, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.436891 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.228372 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.194398 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.092133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089047 } ], "others_margin": -0.281225 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.06311875581741333, "model_output": 0.0631, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1543 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0162, "total": 0.0631, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.641974 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.28379 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.273287 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.160469 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.051352 } ], "others_margin": -0.230176 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27944430708885193, "model_output": 0.2794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.19 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0301 } ], "others": -0.0783, "total": 0.2794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.330525 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.189998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041285 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030115 } ], "others_margin": -0.078264 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.67986536026001, "model_output": 6.6799, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0685 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.6799, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068479 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039579 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017557 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012461 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006938 } ], "others_margin": -0.028179 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2666, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.038, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0261, "goal_rate": 0.0261, "shots_on_target": 0.0632, "total_shots": 0.2798, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 10.5233, "accurate_pass": 8.126, "duels_won": 1.8634, "total_long_balls": 0.3914, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1714, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9546, "crosses_total": 0.135, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7683, "possession_lost": 3.5092, "dispossessed": 0.4373, "duels_lost": 2.2979, "aerial_won": 0.4247, "aerial_lost": 0.8117, "interceptions": 0.3822, "tackles_won": 0.8641, "tackles": 0.8641, "clearances": 0.7972, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5921, "fouls": 0.4569, "fouls_drawn": 0.5746, "blocks": 0.2303, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1115, "total_progression": 29.9963, "progressive_carries": 1.3232, "shots_off_target": 0.2165 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2666, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0.0376, "assist_rate": 0.0376, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "shots_on_target": 0.0626, "total_shots": 0.2772, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 10.5233, "accurate_pass": 8.126, "duels_won": 1.8634, "total_long_balls": 0.3914, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, 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{ "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2569, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0172, "goals": 0.025, "goal_rate": 0.025, "shots_on_target": 0.0603, "total_shots": 0.2689, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 22.38, "total_pass": 10.1394, "accurate_pass": 7.8296, "duels_won": 1.7954, "total_long_balls": 0.3771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0922, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7374, "crosses_total": 0.1288, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1931, "possession_lost": 3.3812, "dispossessed": 0.4373, "duels_lost": 2.2141, "aerial_won": 0.4092, "aerial_lost": 0.8117, "interceptions": 0.367, "tackles_won": 0.8259, "tackles": 0.8326, "clearances": 0.7681, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5921, "fouls": 0.4383, 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-0.239764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.204608 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.050206 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040766 } ], "others_margin": -0.078231 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5027018785476685, "model_output": 0.5027, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.337 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1873 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0499 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0221 } ], "others": 0.0224, "total": 0.5027, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.187272 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049897 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.03691 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.022089 } ], "others_margin": 0.022375 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648049354553223, "model_output": 6.648, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0635 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0661, "total": 6.6481, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063477 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044049 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032075 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011361 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010737 } ], "others_margin": -0.066029 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2388, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0323, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.1053, "total_shots": 0.5016, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 26.32, "total_pass": 12.8923, "accurate_pass": 10.4709, "duels_won": 4.1096, "total_long_balls": 1.2241, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0318, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1744, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2964, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7645, "possession_lost": 5.7223, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 1.6368, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.2262, "tackles_won": 0.6848, "tackles": 1.9803, "clearances": 1.4164, "total_contest": 0.4585, "won_contest": 0.2662, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 0.8056, "fouls_drawn": 0.2262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 4.6056, "total_progression": 2.19, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3963 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2388, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "assists": 0.0319, "assist_rate": 0.0319, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.1111, "total_shots": 0.5026, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 26.32, "total_pass": 12.8923, "accurate_pass": 10.4709, "duels_won": 4.1096, "total_long_balls": 1.2241, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0318, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1744, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2964, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7645, "possession_lost": 5.7223, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 1.6368, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.6836, "tackles": 1.9803, "clearances": 1.4164, "total_contest": 0.4585, "won_contest": 0.2662, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 0.7959, "fouls_drawn": 0.2235, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 4.6056, "total_progression": 2.19, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3963 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2924, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8056, "after": 0.7959 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1053, "after": 0.1111 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.3 to 34.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "assists": 0.0421, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.74, "projection_minutes": 26.32, "minutes_scale": 1.3199, "appearance_probability": 0.696 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "assists": 0.0421, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0408, "after": 0.0354 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, 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"shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.024313 } ], "others_margin": -0.079847 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04815857484936714, "model_output": 0.0482, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0022, "total": 0.0482, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.273939 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.097415 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.075053 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068218 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.057456 } ], "others_margin": -0.046929 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6041035652160645, "model_output": 0.6041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1862 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0833 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0183 } ], "others": 0.0535, "total": 0.6041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323595 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.157767 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052382 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.049562 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.032693 } ], "others_margin": 0.092794 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666069507598877, "model_output": 6.6661, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 6.6661, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060938 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018581 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.015188 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.012598 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.01176 } ], "others_margin": -0.035762 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1359, "goals": 0.1025, "goal_rate": 0.1025, "shots_on_target": 0.2559, "total_shots": 0.7234, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 17.2806, "accurate_pass": 14.6095, "duels_won": 1.4212, "total_long_balls": 0.9328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6126, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1174, "crosses_total": 1.63, "crosses_accurate": 0.4081, "touches": 26.666, "possession_lost": 6.4744, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.4885, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 1.5746, "won_contest": 0.6599, "ball_recovery": 2.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 0.988, "fouls_drawn": 0.3075, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1913, "tackles_won": 0.1336, "tackles": 0.276, "clearances": 0.2398, "blocks": 0.0508, "big_chances_created": 0.2199, "big_chances_missed": 0.6211, "xgot": 0.3485, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3741, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4675 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9982, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2038, "goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.92, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2038, "goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2038, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.568 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2038, "after": 0.1444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0721, "after": 0.046 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2281, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1275, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1275, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "scorer_weight": 0.1159, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0811, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 6, 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"name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.011, "total": 0.3715, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.454767 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074914 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071862 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.064778 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028954 } ], "others_margin": -0.029133 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.605957508087158, "model_output": 6.606, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0657, "total": 6.606, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066818 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018756 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013758 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01216 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011348 } ], "others_margin": -0.06572 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.057, "goals": 0.0765, "goal_rate": 0.0765, "shots_on_target": 0.2068, "total_shots": 0.5534, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "key_pass": 0.3703, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 15.28, "total_pass": 4.2524, "accurate_pass": 3.0321, "duels_won": 1.0338, "total_long_balls": 0.114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0612, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1258, "crosses_total": 0.8449, "crosses_accurate": 0.1193, "touches": 9.6509, "possession_lost": 3.7283, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 1.6113, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 0.9627, "won_contest": 0.1753, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.1033, "fouls_drawn": 0.6586, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.0694, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.2133, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0225, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 2.9749, "total_progression": 18.7204, "progressive_carries": 0.7589, "shots_off_target": 0.3466 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.3 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 15.28, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.0596 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0507, "after": 0.0318 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2258, "fifa_rank": 880.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0565, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "scorer_weight": 0.0724, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0507, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0565, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0309, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { 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"others_margin": -0.066029 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2388, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0323, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.1053, "total_shots": 0.5016, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 26.32, "total_pass": 12.8923, "accurate_pass": 10.4709, "duels_won": 4.1096, "total_long_balls": 1.2241, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0318, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1744, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2964, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7645, "possession_lost": 5.7223, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 1.6368, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.2262, "tackles_won": 0.6848, "tackles": 1.9803, "clearances": 1.4164, "total_contest": 0.4585, "won_contest": 0.2662, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 0.8056, "fouls_drawn": 0.2262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 4.6056, "total_progression": 2.19, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3963 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2388, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "assists": 0.0319, "assist_rate": 0.0319, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.1111, "total_shots": 0.5026, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 26.32, "total_pass": 12.8923, "accurate_pass": 10.4709, "duels_won": 4.1096, "total_long_balls": 1.2241, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0318, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1744, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2964, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7645, "possession_lost": 5.7223, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 1.6368, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.6836, "tackles": 1.9803, "clearances": 1.4164, "total_contest": 0.4585, "won_contest": 0.2662, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 0.7959, "fouls_drawn": 0.2235, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 4.6056, "total_progression": 2.19, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3963 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2924, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8056, "after": 0.7959 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1053, "after": 0.1111 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.3 to 34.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "assists": 0.0421, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.74, "projection_minutes": 26.32, "minutes_scale": 1.3199, "appearance_probability": 0.696 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "assists": 0.0421, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0408, "after": 0.0354 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4340, "fifa_rank": 4267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "scorer_weight": 0.0442, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.031, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3152, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.6697, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 17.0167, "accurate_pass": 13.8206, "duels_won": 5.4243, "total_long_balls": 1.6157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3619, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6472, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6709, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0471, "possession_lost": 7.5529, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 4.5487, "aerial_won": 2.1604, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.295, "tackles_won": 0.9023, "tackles": 2.6138, "clearances": 1.8695, "total_contest": 0.6052, "won_contest": 0.3514, "challenges_lost": 0.2262, "fouls": 1.0505, "fouls_drawn": 0.295, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 6.079, "total_progression": 2.8906, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "assist_rate": 0.0421, "provider_weight": 0.0181, "squad_weight_total": 1.0297, "weight_share": 0.0176, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.193, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.193, "runner_up": "Bryan Zaragoza", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1355, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Javi Puado": { "player_id": 891511, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 7000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, 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"total": 0.6041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323595 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.157767 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052382 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.049562 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.032693 } ], "others_margin": 0.092794 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666069507598877, "model_output": 6.6661, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 6.6661, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060938 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018581 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.015188 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.012598 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.01176 } ], "others_margin": -0.035762 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1359, "goals": 0.1025, "goal_rate": 0.1025, "shots_on_target": 0.2559, "total_shots": 0.7234, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 17.2806, "accurate_pass": 14.6095, "duels_won": 1.4212, "total_long_balls": 0.9328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6126, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1174, "crosses_total": 1.63, "crosses_accurate": 0.4081, "touches": 26.666, "possession_lost": 6.4744, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.4885, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 1.5746, "won_contest": 0.6599, "ball_recovery": 2.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 0.988, "fouls_drawn": 0.3075, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1913, "tackles_won": 0.1336, "tackles": 0.276, "clearances": 0.2398, "blocks": 0.0508, "big_chances_created": 0.2199, "big_chances_missed": 0.6211, "xgot": 0.3485, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3741, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4675 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9982, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2038, "goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.92, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2038, "goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2038, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.568 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2038, "after": 0.1444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0721, "after": 0.046 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2281, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1275, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1275, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "scorer_weight": 0.1159, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0811, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3839, "total_shots": 1.0852, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.9045, "rating": 6.6661, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.3703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7013, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1275, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0442, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0442, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0368, "squad_weight_total": 1.0297, "weight_share": 0.0357, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.193, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.193, "runner_up": "Bryan Zaragoza", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1355, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jofre Carreras": { "player_id": 1019236, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 175, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.057, "goals": 0.0765, "goal_rate": 0.0765, "shots_on_target": 0.2068, "total_shots": 0.5534, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "key_pass": 0.3703, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 15.28, "total_pass": 4.2524, "accurate_pass": 3.0321, "duels_won": 1.0338, "total_long_balls": 0.114, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0612, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1258, "crosses_total": 0.8449, "crosses_accurate": 0.1193, "touches": 9.6509, "possession_lost": 3.7283, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 1.6113, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 0.9627, "won_contest": 0.1753, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.1033, "fouls_drawn": 0.6586, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.0694, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.2133, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0225, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 2.9749, "total_progression": 18.7204, "progressive_carries": 0.7589, "shots_off_target": 0.3466 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.3 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 15.28, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.0719, xG scale 1.2473, xA scale 1.1232, team xA 1.07 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.337, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0719, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9523, "team_expected_assists": 1.0696, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2473, "xa_scale": 1.1232, "opponent_lambda": 2.325, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.0596 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0507, "after": 0.0318 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2258, "fifa_rank": 880.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0565, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "scorer_weight": 0.0724, "squad_weight_total": 1.4295, "weight_share": 0.0507, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5106, "runner_up": "Javier Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.166 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3102, "total_shots": 0.8301, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.5554, "rating": 6.606, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 6.3786, "accurate_pass": 4.5481, "duels_won": 1.5507, "total_long_balls": 0.171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0918, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1887, "crosses_total": 1.2673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1789, "touches": 14.4764, "possession_lost": 5.5924, "dispossessed": 0.3359, "duels_lost": 2.4169, "aerial_lost": 0.1629, "total_contest": 1.4441, "won_contest": 0.263, "ball_recovery": 1.0422, "challenges_lost": 0.2217, "fouls": 0.155, "fouls_drawn": 0.9879, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles_won": 0.1041, "tackles": 0.252, "clearances": 0.3199, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0019, "offsides": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 4.4623, "total_progression": 28.0806, "progressive_carries": 1.1383, "shots_off_target": 0.5199, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0565, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0309, "finishing_factor": 1.2155, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0254, "squad_weight_total": 1.0297, "weight_share": 0.0247, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.193, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.193, "runner_up": "Bryan Zaragoza", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1355, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Vanja Drkušić": { "player_id": 908617, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 186, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, 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"others_margin": 0.003431 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4804310202598572, "model_output": 0.4804, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7772 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0384, "total": 0.4804, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.817727 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.055236 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.040101 }, { 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"total": 1.3414, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.01218 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.179345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.122837 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.070684 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.057466 } ], "others_margin": 0.0009 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3799079954624176, "model_output": 0.3799, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8672 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0233 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 0.3799, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.993295 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.293341 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087374 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079393 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.058999 } ], "others_margin": -0.068304 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14338922500610352, "model_output": 0.1434, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1683 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0771 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.1434, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.168324 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077068 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010842 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010799 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010745 } ], "others_margin": -0.053334 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.616983413696289, "model_output": 6.617, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0617, "total": 6.617, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035848 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.027217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020418 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011258 } ], "others_margin": -0.061669 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9931, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3918, "tackles": 0.4771, "tackles_won": 0.2624, "clearances": 1.3322, "aerial_won": 0.3773, "total_shots": 0.1424, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 14.78, "total_pass": 20.886, "accurate_pass": 16.7186, "duels_won": 2.1985, "total_long_balls": 4.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9352, "total_own_half_passes": 13.913, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7761, "possession_lost": 4.1673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5914, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9845, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9352, "fouls_drawn": 0.9845, "blocks": 0.6562, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8417, "total_progression": 7.7315, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1424 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9931, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0352)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.378, "tackles": 0.4771, "tackles_won": 0.2621, "clearances": 1.3322, "aerial_won": 0.3773, "total_shots": 0.1374, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 14.78, "total_pass": 20.886, "accurate_pass": 16.7186, "duels_won": 2.1985, "total_long_balls": 4.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9352, "total_own_half_passes": 13.913, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7761, "possession_lost": 4.1673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5914, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9845, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9632, "blocks": 0.6562, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8417, "total_progression": 7.7315, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1424 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0352, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1642, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9845, "after": 0.9632 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9352, "after": 0.9156 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3918, "after": 0.378 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.1424, "after": 0.1374 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.8 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.91, "projection_minutes": 14.78, "minutes_scale": 1.3471, "appearance_probability": 0.412 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles": 0.6427, "tackles_won": 0.3531, "clearances": 1.7946, "aerial_won": 0.5083, "total_shots": 0.1918, "rating": 6.617, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1095 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1182 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.128 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0451 } ], "others": 0.1799, "total": 1.4488, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.253959 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118774 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.114168 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.110471 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.036214 } ], "others_margin": 0.132638 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.86839485168457, "model_output": 6.8684, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0306, "total": 6.8684, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.067624 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.020916 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.016752 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016102 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.0152 } ], "others_margin": 0.030506 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0177, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2804, "goals": 0.2837, "goal_rate": 0.2837, "shots_on_target": 0.8222, "total_shots": 2.0823, "expected_assists": 0.1091, "key_pass": 1.4745, "rating": 6.8684, "minutes": 66.39, "total_pass": 20.9167, "accurate_pass": 17.5441, "duels_won": 2.1524, "total_long_balls": 0.2425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1288, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4651, "crosses_total": 0.9201, "crosses_accurate": 0.2051, "touches": 33.2714, "possession_lost": 8.7095, "dispossessed": 1.5937, "duels_lost": 5.3186, "aerial_lost": 0.2798, "total_contest": 2.5129, "won_contest": 0.6079, "ball_recovery": 1.9081, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 1.2203, "fouls_drawn": 0.9645, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.265, "tackles": 0.529, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1726, "big_chances_missed": 0.5396, "xgot": 0.1582, "offsides": 0.428, "ball_carries": 11.6728, "total_progression": 36.8968, "progressive_carries": 2.9008, "shots_off_target": 1.2601 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0177, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0225)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2804, "goals": 0.2837, "goal_rate": 0.2837, "shots_on_target": 0.823, "total_shots": 2.0739, "expected_assists": 0.1091, "key_pass": 1.4745, "rating": 6.8684, "minutes": 66.39, "total_pass": 20.9167, "accurate_pass": 17.5441, "duels_won": 2.1524, "total_long_balls": 0.2425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1288, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4651, "crosses_total": 0.9122, 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.116 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0927 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0215, "total": 7.1595, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.116009 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.092686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028443 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02833 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01951 } ], "others_margin": 0.021505 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.202, "expected_assists": 0.1178, "assists": 0.1116, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.9418, "rating": 7.1595, "minutes": 76.59, "total_pass": 53.4786, "accurate_pass": 48.5233, "duels_won": 4.1382, "total_long_balls": 3.2393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1854, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0399, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4833, "crosses_total": 1.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.3067, "touches": 68.6194, "possession_lost": 9.9086, "dispossessed": 1.4243, "duels_lost": 3.9942, "aerial_won": 0.7071, "aerial_lost": 0.317, "interceptions": 1.6066, "tackles_won": 0.5756, "tackles": 1.2465, "clearances": 0.3869, "total_contest": 2.1134, "won_contest": 1.2453, "challenges_lost": 0.9176, "fouls": 0.4671, "fouls_drawn": 0.9393, "blocks": 0.1771, "big_chances_created": 0.2247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0271, "xgot": 0.1087, "ball_carries": 20.8274, "total_progression": 47.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.4011, "shots_off_target": 0.6796 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0151)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.202, "expected_assists": 0.1178, "assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.1155, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.061, "goal_rate": 0.061, "shots_on_target": 0.2639, "total_shots": 0.9332, "rating": 7.1595, "minutes": 76.59, "total_pass": 53.4786, "accurate_pass": 48.5233, "duels_won": 4.1382, "total_long_balls": 3.2393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1854, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0399, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4833, "crosses_total": 1.432, "crosses_accurate": 0.3067, "touches": 68.6194, "possession_lost": 9.9086, "dispossessed": 1.4243, "duels_lost": 3.9942, "aerial_won": 0.7071, "aerial_lost": 0.317, "interceptions": 1.5991, "tackles_won": 0.5781, "tackles": 1.2465, "clearances": 0.3869, "total_contest": 2.1134, "won_contest": 1.2453, "challenges_lost": 0.9176, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.953, "blocks": 0.1771, "big_chances_created": 0.2247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0271, "xgot": 0.1087, "ball_carries": 20.8274, "total_progression": 47.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.4011, "shots_off_target": 0.6796 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0151, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.851, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.4483, "after": 1.432 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9393, "after": 0.953 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9418, "after": 0.9332 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.6066, "after": 1.5991 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.202, "expected_assists": 0.1178, "assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.1155, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.061, "goal_rate": 0.061, "shots_on_target": 0.2639, "total_shots": 0.9435, "rating": 7.1595, "minutes": 76.59, "total_pass": 53.4786, "accurate_pass": 48.5233, "duels_won": 4.1382, "total_long_balls": 3.2393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1854, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0399, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4833, "crosses_total": 1.432, "crosses_accurate": 0.3067, "touches": 68.6194, "possession_lost": 9.9086, "dispossessed": 1.4243, "duels_lost": 3.9942, "aerial_won": 0.7071, "aerial_lost": 0.317, "interceptions": 1.5991, "tackles_won": 0.5781, "tackles": 1.2465, "clearances": 0.3869, "total_contest": 2.1134, "won_contest": 1.2453, "challenges_lost": 0.9176, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.953, "blocks": 0.1771, "big_chances_created": 0.2247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0271, "xgot": 0.1087, "ball_carries": 20.8274, "total_progression": 47.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.4011, "shots_off_target": 0.6796 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.202, "expected_assists": 0.1178, "assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.1155, "expected_goals": 0.078, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.3436, "total_shots": 1.2285, "rating": 7.1595, "minutes": 76.59, "total_pass": 53.4786, "accurate_pass": 48.5233, "duels_won": 4.1382, "total_long_balls": 3.2393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1854, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0399, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4833, "crosses_total": 1.432, "crosses_accurate": 0.3067, "touches": 68.6194, "possession_lost": 9.9086, "dispossessed": 1.4243, "duels_lost": 3.9942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.317, "interceptions": 1.5991, "tackles_won": 0.5781, "tackles": 1.2465, "clearances": 0.3869, "total_contest": 2.1134, "won_contest": 1.2453, "challenges_lost": 0.9176, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.953, "blocks": 0.1771, "big_chances_created": 0.2247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0353, "xgot": 0.1415, "ball_carries": 20.8274, "total_progression": 47.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.4011, "shots_off_target": 0.8849, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3021, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.3021, "skill_edge": 0.1835, "height_edge": 0.022, "attacker_skill": 0.8829, "defender_skill": 0.4751, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pol Lozano", "market_value": 5800000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4845 }, { "player": "Edu Expósito", "market_value": 4500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4658 } ], "xg_override": 0.078 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7071, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9435, "after": 1.2285 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6796, "after": 0.8849 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2639, "after": 0.3436 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1087, "after": 0.1415 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.061, "after": 0.0794 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.078 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0271, "after": 0.0353 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.202, "expected_assists": 0.1178, "assist_rate": 0.1155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.078, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3436, "total_shots": 1.2285, "rating": 7.1595, "minutes": 76.59, "total_pass": 53.4786, "accurate_pass": 48.5233, "duels_won": 4.1382, "total_long_balls": 3.2393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1854, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0399, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4833, "crosses_total": 1.432, "crosses_accurate": 0.3067, "touches": 68.6194, "possession_lost": 9.9086, "dispossessed": 1.4243, "duels_lost": 3.9942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.317, "interceptions": 1.5991, "tackles_won": 0.5781, "tackles": 1.2465, "clearances": 0.3869, "total_contest": 2.1134, "won_contest": 1.2453, "challenges_lost": 0.9176, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.953, "blocks": 0.1771, "big_chances_created": 0.2247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0353, "xgot": 0.1415, "ball_carries": 20.8274, "total_progression": 47.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.4011, "shots_off_target": 0.8849, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3021, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.33 (squad xG sum 1.6168, xG scale 1.4380, xA scale 1.4481, team xA 1.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.202, "expected_assists": 0.1706, "assist_rate": 0.1155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1122, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3436, "total_shots": 1.2285, "rating": 7.1595, "minutes": 76.59, "total_pass": 53.4786, "accurate_pass": 48.5233, "duels_won": 4.1382, "total_long_balls": 3.2393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1854, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0399, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4833, "crosses_total": 1.432, "crosses_accurate": 0.3067, "touches": 68.6194, "possession_lost": 9.9086, "dispossessed": 1.4243, "duels_lost": 3.9942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.317, "interceptions": 1.5991, "tackles_won": 0.5781, "tackles": 1.2465, "clearances": 0.3869, "total_contest": 2.1134, "won_contest": 1.2453, "challenges_lost": 0.9176, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.953, "blocks": 0.1771, "big_chances_created": 0.2247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0353, "xgot": 0.2035, "ball_carries": 20.8274, "total_progression": 47.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.4011, "shots_off_target": 0.8849, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3021, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0109, "creation_factor": 0.9863 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.078, "after": 0.1122 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1178, "after": 0.1706 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.1771, "big_chances_created": 0.2247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0353, "xgot": 0.2035, "ball_carries": 20.8274, "total_progression": 47.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.4011, "shots_off_target": 0.8849, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3021, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano, Edu Expósito", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0109, "creation_factor": 0.9863, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 246, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.202, "expected_assists": 0.1706, "assist_rate": 0.1155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1122, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3436, "total_shots": 1.2285, "rating": 7.1595, "minutes": 76.59, "total_pass": 53.4786, "accurate_pass": 48.5233, "duels_won": 4.1382, "total_long_balls": 3.2393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1854, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0399, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4833, "crosses_total": 1.432, "crosses_accurate": 0.3067, "touches": 68.6194, "possession_lost": 9.9086, "dispossessed": 1.4243, "duels_lost": 3.9942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 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"goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9985, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 161.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.56, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0486, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.40025 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185559 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133646 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050524 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.044334 } ], "others_margin": -0.115462 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.056483082473278046, "model_output": 0.0565, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0172, "total": 0.0565, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.240136 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.184701 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.106222 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.100427 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.063896 } ], "others_margin": -0.266783 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1556449979543686, "model_output": 0.1556, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0834 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 0.1556, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.295711 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.210406 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.132881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118999 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.086885 } ], "others_margin": -0.131606 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6767151951789856, "model_output": 0.6767, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2695 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1291 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0246 } ], "others": -0.1371, "total": 0.6767, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.26948 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129113 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037136 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028782 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.024552 } ], "others_margin": -0.137087 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1911234855651855, "model_output": 7.1911, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1347 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1047 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 7.1911, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.13466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10474 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039015 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029681 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4951, "expected_assists": 0.123, "assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.124, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0.6757, "rating": 7.1911, "minutes": 82.55, "total_pass": 75.6191, "accurate_pass": 68.6874, "duels_won": 4.4763, "total_long_balls": 6.2478, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7141, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6451, "total_opp_half_passes": 46.592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 41.0424, "crosses_total": 2.3802, "crosses_accurate": 0.6109, "touches": 89.0746, "possession_lost": 10.8612, "dispossessed": 0.644, "duels_lost": 2.8772, "aerial_won": 0.209, "aerial_lost": 0.3088, "interceptions": 0.4259, "tackles_won": 1.9279, "tackles": 2.5836, "clearances": 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0.0328 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0221, "total": 6.9487, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.098655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032752 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023091 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019071 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.017835 } ], "others_margin": -0.021979 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "assists": 0.051, "assist_rate": 0.051, "expected_goals": 0.0331, "goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.1326, "total_shots": 0.5499, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1595, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 0.8353, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3335, "tackles_won": 1.5205, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6242, "fouls_drawn": 0.7388, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4173 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0065, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0008)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "assists": 0.051, "assist_rate": 0.051, "expected_goals": 0.0331, "goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.5494, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1594, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 0.8353, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 1.5266, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.7456, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4173 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0008, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.88, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7388, "after": 0.7456 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3335, "after": 1.3398 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.5205, "after": 1.5266 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6242, "after": 1.6302 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "assists": 0.051, "assist_rate": 0.051, "expected_goals": 0.0331, "goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.5498, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1594, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 0.8353, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 1.5266, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.7456, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4173 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "assists": 0.051, "assist_rate": 0.051, "expected_goals": 0.0387, "goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "shots_on_target": 0.1548, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1594, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 1.5266, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.7456, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1685, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1685, "skill_edge": 0.0746, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.6503, "defender_skill": 0.4845, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pol Lozano", "market_value": 5800000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4845 } ], "xg_override": 0.0387 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8353, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5498, "after": 0.6424 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4173, "after": 0.4876 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1325, "after": 0.1548 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0451, "after": 0.0527 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0331, "after": 0.0387 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0387, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1548, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1594, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 1.5266, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.7456, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1685, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.33 (squad xG sum 1.6168, xG scale 1.4380, xA scale 1.4481, team xA 1.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1548, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1594, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 1.5266, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.7456, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1685, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1578, "creation_factor": 0.9457 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0387, "after": 0.0557 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0568, "after": 0.0823 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1548, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1594, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 1.5266, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.7456, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1685, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1578, "creation_factor": 0.9457, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1498, "fifa_rank": 763.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1548, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 49.757, "duels_won": 4.5911, "total_long_balls": 2.5261, "accurate_long_balls": 1.978, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6131, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.144, "crosses_total": 0.1594, "crosses_accurate": 0.02, "touches": 67.6159, "possession_lost": 7.4626, "dispossessed": 1.267, "duels_lost": 5.9053, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.4786, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 1.5266, "tackles": 2.3762, "clearances": 1.5482, "total_contest": 0.7351, "won_contest": 0.6407, "challenges_lost": 1.441, "fouls": 1.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.7456, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.1338, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.4549, "total_progression": 68.5222, "progressive_carries": 1.203, "shots_off_target": 0.4876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1685, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pol Lozano", "opponent_faced": "Pol Lozano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0542, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1578, "creation_factor": 0.9457, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0542, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "scorer_weight": 0.0645, "squad_weight_total": 2.409, "weight_share": 0.0268, "finishing_factor": 1.1578, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.71, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.71, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4553 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4553, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4553, "runner_up": "Jonathan David", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3021 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6884, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1548, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.9487, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 54.0965, "accurate_pass": 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"contribution": 0.6609 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1716 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1494 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.1069 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0787 } ], "others": -0.0452, "total": 2.1178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.660872 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.171644 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.149414 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.106882 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.078733 } ], "others_margin": -0.045276 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2041754722595215, "model_output": 7.2042, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.134 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1009 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": 0.021, "total": 7.2042, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.134033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100878 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.036634 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03258 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025977 } ], "others_margin": 0.021018 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0150, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7715, "expected_assists": 0.149, "assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.1317, "expected_goals": 0.2032, "goals": 0.1851, "goal_rate": 0.1851, "shots_on_target": 0.7129, "total_shots": 2.1496, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 88.49, "total_pass": 52.1438, "accurate_pass": 45.0888, "duels_won": 4.8103, "total_long_balls": 4.1061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8112, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3177, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7711, "crosses_total": 4.9459, "crosses_accurate": 1.0766, "touches": 79.4282, "possession_lost": 15.69, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 4.1208, "aerial_won": 0.4386, "aerial_lost": 0.5704, "interceptions": 0.9696, "tackles_won": 1.3392, "tackles": 2.093, "clearances": 1.1641, "total_contest": 3.3751, "won_contest": 1.7308, "challenges_lost": 0.7135, "fouls": 1.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.5479, "blocks": 0.1839, "big_chances_created": 0.2995, "big_chances_missed": 0.2438, "xgot": 0.3243, "ball_carries": 19.5513, "total_progression": 68.4775, "progressive_carries": 2.1561, "shots_off_target": 1.4366 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.015, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7715, "expected_assists": 0.149, "assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.1317, "expected_goals": 0.2032, "goals": 0.1851, "goal_rate": 0.1851, "shots_on_target": 0.7129, "total_shots": 2.1496, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 88.49, "total_pass": 52.1438, "accurate_pass": 45.0888, "duels_won": 4.8103, "total_long_balls": 4.1061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8112, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3177, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7711, "crosses_total": 4.9459, "crosses_accurate": 1.0766, "touches": 79.4282, "possession_lost": 15.69, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 4.1208, "aerial_won": 0.4386, "aerial_lost": 0.5704, "interceptions": 0.9696, "tackles_won": 1.3392, "tackles": 2.093, "clearances": 1.1641, "total_contest": 3.3751, "won_contest": 1.7308, "challenges_lost": 0.7135, "fouls": 1.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.5479, "blocks": 0.1839, "big_chances_created": 0.2995, "big_chances_missed": 0.2438, "xgot": 0.3243, "ball_carries": 19.5513, "total_progression": 68.4775, "progressive_carries": 2.1561, "shots_off_target": 1.4366 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7715, "expected_assists": 0.149, "assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.1317, "expected_goals": 0.2062, "goals": 0.1879, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.7235, "total_shots": 2.1816, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 88.49, "total_pass": 52.1438, "accurate_pass": 45.0888, "duels_won": 4.8103, "total_long_balls": 4.1061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8112, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3177, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7711, "crosses_total": 4.9459, "crosses_accurate": 1.0766, "touches": 79.4282, "possession_lost": 15.69, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 4.1208, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5704, "interceptions": 0.9696, "tackles_won": 1.3392, "tackles": 2.093, "clearances": 1.1641, "total_contest": 3.3751, "won_contest": 1.7308, "challenges_lost": 0.7135, "fouls": 1.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.5479, "blocks": 0.1839, "big_chances_created": 0.2995, "big_chances_missed": 0.2474, "xgot": 0.3291, "ball_carries": 19.5513, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 32.5527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7711, "crosses_total": 4.9459, "crosses_accurate": 1.0766, "touches": 79.4282, "possession_lost": 15.69, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 4.1208, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5704, "interceptions": 0.9696, "tackles_won": 1.3392, "tackles": 2.093, "clearances": 1.1641, "total_contest": 3.3751, "won_contest": 1.7308, "challenges_lost": 0.7135, "fouls": 1.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.5479, "blocks": 0.1839, "big_chances_created": 0.2995, "big_chances_missed": 0.2474, "xgot": 0.3291, "ball_carries": 19.5513, "total_progression": 68.4775, "progressive_carries": 2.1561, "shots_off_target": 1.458, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0149, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.49, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Clemens Riedel", "opponent_faced": "Clemens Riedel", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.33 (squad xG sum 1.6168, xG scale 1.4380, xA scale 1.4481, team xA 1.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7715, "expected_assists": 0.2159, "assist_rate": 0.1317, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2965, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7235, "total_shots": 2.1816, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 88.49, "total_pass": 52.1438, "accurate_pass": 45.0888, "duels_won": 4.8103, "total_long_balls": 4.1061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8112, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3177, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7711, "crosses_total": 4.9459, "crosses_accurate": 1.0766, "touches": 79.4282, "possession_lost": 15.69, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 4.1208, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5704, "interceptions": 0.9696, "tackles_won": 1.3392, "tackles": 2.093, "clearances": 1.1641, "total_contest": 3.3751, "won_contest": 1.7308, "challenges_lost": 0.7135, "fouls": 1.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.5479, "blocks": 0.1839, "big_chances_created": 0.2995, "big_chances_missed": 0.2474, "xgot": 0.4733, "ball_carries": 19.5513, "total_progression": 68.4775, "progressive_carries": 2.1561, "shots_off_target": 1.458, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0149, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.49, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Clemens Riedel", "opponent_faced": "Clemens Riedel", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9286, "creation_factor": 0.9131 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2062, "after": 0.2965 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.149, "after": 0.2159 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7715, "expected_assists": 0.2159, "assist_rate": 0.1317, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2965, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7235, "total_shots": 2.1816, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 88.49, "total_pass": 52.1438, "accurate_pass": 45.0888, "duels_won": 4.8103, "total_long_balls": 4.1061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8112, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3177, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7711, "crosses_total": 4.9459, "crosses_accurate": 1.0766, "touches": 79.4282, "possession_lost": 15.69, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 4.1208, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5704, "interceptions": 0.9696, "tackles_won": 1.3392, "tackles": 2.093, "clearances": 1.1641, "total_contest": 3.3751, "won_contest": 1.7308, "challenges_lost": 0.7135, "fouls": 1.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.5479, "blocks": 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1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0221, "after": 0.0318 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1273 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0582 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 } ], "others": -0.0123, "total": 0.7188, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.127292 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058196 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026168 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02358 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.02134 } ], "others_margin": -0.012285 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.992541313171387, "model_output": 6.9925, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0774 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": 0.0171, "total": 6.9925, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07739 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038998 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029834 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.028365 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.016104 } ], "others_margin": 0.017147 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0048, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1007, "tackles": 2.0764, "tackles_won": 1.2432, "clearances": 1.7906, "aerial_won": 0.5119, "total_shots": 0.7223, "rating": 6.9925, "minutes": 82.89, "total_pass": 61.922, "accurate_pass": 57.748, "duels_won": 3.5906, "total_long_balls": 3.0159, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7493, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3921, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.6375, "crosses_total": 1.7696, "crosses_accurate": 0.2059, "touches": 81.1826, "possession_lost": 8.2763, "dispossessed": 0.7026, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 0.4131, "total_contest": 1.0393, "won_contest": 0.7847, "ball_recovery": 4.1341, "challenges_lost": 0.9334, "fouls": 0.7436, "fouls_drawn": 0.239, "blocks": 0.2429, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 35.3921, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.6375, "crosses_total": 1.7559, "crosses_accurate": 0.2059, "touches": 81.1826, "possession_lost": 8.2763, "dispossessed": 0.7026, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 0.4131, "total_contest": 1.0393, "won_contest": 0.7847, "ball_recovery": 4.1341, "challenges_lost": 0.9334, "fouls": 0.7664, "fouls_drawn": 0.2467, "blocks": 0.2429, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.108, "assist_rate": 0.108, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "expected_assists": 0.0898, "shots_on_target": 0.5139, "big_chances_created": 0.0636, "xgot": 0.046, "ball_carries": 21.0293, "total_progression": 79.0928, "progressive_carries": 1.6315, "key_pass": 1.1319, "shots_off_target": 0.2044 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.921, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7436, "after": 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.5452 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 121, "combined_rank_score": 112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 45.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9511, "goals_prevented": 0.0324, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.3636, "accurate_pass": 20.0967, "total_long_balls": 11.82, "accurate_long_balls": 4.786, "touches": 35.8514, "clearances": 0.4242, "ball_recovery": 8.1864, "high_claims": 0.592, "punches": 0.4532, "aerial_won": 0.1153, "sweeper_actions": 0.7417, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7417, "saves_inside_box": 1.3136, "possession_lost": 7.3793, "duels_won": 0.1976, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0866, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9692, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4715, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.33 (squad xG sum 1.6168, xG scale 1.4380, xA scale 1.4481, team xA 1.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9511, "goals_prevented": 0.0324, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.3636, "accurate_pass": 20.0967, "total_long_balls": 11.82, "accurate_long_balls": 4.786, "touches": 35.8514, "clearances": 0.4242, "ball_recovery": 8.1864, "high_claims": 0.592, "punches": 0.4532, "aerial_won": 0.1153, "sweeper_actions": 0.7417, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7417, "saves_inside_box": 1.3136, "possession_lost": 7.3793, "duels_won": 0.1976, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0866, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9692, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4715, "shots_faced": 12.7, "expected_saves": 3.11, "high_pressure_saves": 1.07, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.0, "after": 12.7 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.43, "after": 3.11 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.18, "after": 1.07 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9925, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7632, "goals_prevented": -0.1671, "rating": 6.9691, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.4033, "accurate_pass": 20.8043, "total_long_balls": 11.4377, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8386, "touches": 40.2588, "clearances": 1.0364, "ball_recovery": 9.9405, "high_claims": 1.6765, "punches": 0.7718, "aerial_won": 0.8482, "sweeper_actions": 0.7197, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7197, "saves_inside_box": 1.7624, "possession_lost": 6.9208, "duels_won": 0.9254, "duels_lost": 0.2047, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2047, "fouls_drawn": 0.3729, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8668, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.916 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9925, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4268, "goals_prevented": -0.0258, "rating": 6.9691, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1545, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4268, "goals_prevented": -0.0258, "rating": 6.9691, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4268, "goals_prevented": -0.0258, "rating": 6.9691, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4268, "goals_prevented": -0.0258, "rating": 6.9691, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 315, "fifa_rank": 411.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Marc Pubill": { "player_id": 1094106, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 190, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7616, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.4108, "dispossessed": 0.1682, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0012, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.248, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.07, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 78, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0921, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4462, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético 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"tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 153, "combined_rank_score": 101.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 64.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7616, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Pubill", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kipras Kazukolovas", "ranking": 148 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Mina", "ranking": 149 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Tah", "ranking": 150 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Méndez", "ranking": 151 }, { "player_name": "Elseid Hysaj", "ranking": 152 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alex Muralha", "ranking": 154 }, { "player_name": "Guilherme Arana", "ranking": 155 }, { "player_name": "Will Smallbone", "ranking": 156 }, { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.074636121884067, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.248, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0156, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.5882352941176471, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (25 historical appearances) to 15.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3026, "tackles": 0.5725, "tackles_won": 0.2952, "clearances": 1.1075, "aerial_won": 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"contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.2317, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.233317 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.025994 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023289 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.014731 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008808 } ], "others_margin": -0.012691 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.761634826660156, "model_output": 6.7616, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { 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"contribution": -2.0453 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1598 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1473 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.092 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": 0.0378, "total": 1.8668, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.905921 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.109009 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.090917 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.052852 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.023529 } ], "others_margin": 0.020496 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.48099270462989807, "model_output": 0.481, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8008 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1026 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.481, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.870974 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.196094 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.055674 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.039757 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.022585 } ], "others_margin": -0.023472 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4652329087257385, "model_output": 0.4652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2537 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1658 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0217, "total": 0.4652, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.253708 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.165759 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026342 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015813 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.014809 } ], "others_margin": 0.021718 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.942891597747803, "model_output": 6.9429, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": 0.0876, "total": 6.9429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.035991 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02842 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027866 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027774 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.022487 } ], "others_margin": 0.087631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3194, "tackles": 0.5108, "tackles_won": 0.3462, "clearances": 1.8833, "aerial_won": 0.4852, "total_shots": 0.4693, "rating": 6.9429, "minutes": 21.58, "total_pass": 20.3635, "accurate_pass": 17.7063, "duels_won": 0.9333, "total_long_balls": 1.9068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6356, "total_own_half_passes": 11.131, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4659, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2325, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2403, "crosses_total": 0.272, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.3834, "possession_lost": 4.1241, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4277, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2312, "won_contest": 0.2312, "ball_recovery": 0.9697, "challenges_lost": 0.1965, "fouls": 0.2312, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1965, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2375, "total_progression": 28.4756, "progressive_carries": 0.3921, "key_pass": 0.3636, "shots_off_target": 0.4693 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0151)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3218, "tackles": 0.5108, "tackles_won": 0.3458, "clearances": 1.8833, "aerial_won": 0.4852, "total_shots": 0.4658, "rating": 6.9429, "minutes": 21.58, "total_pass": 20.3635, "accurate_pass": 17.7063, "duels_won": 0.9333, "total_long_balls": 1.9068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6356, "total_own_half_passes": 11.131, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4659, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2325, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2403, "crosses_total": 0.2691, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.3834, "possession_lost": 4.1241, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4277, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2312, "won_contest": 0.2312, "ball_recovery": 0.9697, "challenges_lost": 0.1965, "fouls": 0.2289, "fouls_drawn": 0.0036, "blocks": 0.1965, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0012, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2375, "total_progression": 28.4756, "progressive_carries": 0.3921, "key_pass": 0.3636, "shots_off_target": 0.4693 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0151, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2398, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 14.8 expected minutes 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4.29, "total_progression": 19.5849, "progressive_carries": 0.2697, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.3228, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.243, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.84, "projection_minutes": 21.58, "minutes_scale": 0.6878, "appearance_probability": 0.243 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2213, "tackles": 0.3513, "tackles_won": 0.2378, "clearances": 1.2953, "aerial_won": 0.3337, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.9429, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 14.0056, "accurate_pass": 12.178, "duels_won": 0.6419, "total_long_balls": 1.3115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4372, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1982, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9797, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1459, "possession_lost": 2.8365, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.159, "won_contest": 0.159, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 0.1965, "fouls": 0.1574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0025, "blocks": 0.1351, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0008, "assist_rate": 0.0008, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.29, "total_progression": 19.5849, "progressive_carries": 0.2697, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.3228, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.243, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2213, "tackles": 0.3513, "tackles_won": 0.2378, "clearances": 1.2953, "aerial_won": 0.3337, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.9429, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 14.0056, "accurate_pass": 12.178, "duels_won": 0.6419, "total_long_balls": 1.3115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4372, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1982, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9797, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1459, "possession_lost": 2.8365, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.159, "won_contest": 0.159, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 0.1965, "fouls": 0.1574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0025, "blocks": 0.1351, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0008, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.29, "total_progression": 19.5849, "progressive_carries": 0.2697, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.3228, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.243, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.243, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2213, "tackles": 0.3513, "tackles_won": 0.2378, "clearances": 1.2953, "aerial_won": 0.3337, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.9429, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 14.0056, "accurate_pass": 12.178, "duels_won": 0.6419, "total_long_balls": 1.3115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4372, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1982, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9797, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1459, "possession_lost": 2.8365, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.159, "won_contest": 0.159, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 0.1965, "fouls": 0.1574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0025, "blocks": 0.1351, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0008, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", 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"tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 404, "combined_rank_score": 257.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 204.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1875, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7205, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morten Hjulmand", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Min Ji-Hoon", "ranking": 399 }, { "player_name": "Avazbek Ulmasaliyev", "ranking": 400 }, { "player_name": "Jun-yeong Jang", "ranking": 401 }, { "player_name": "Moise Kean", "ranking": 402 }, { 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.507361 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.328329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.170185 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.11091 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082365 } ], "others_margin": -0.184067 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04079987853765488, "model_output": 0.0408, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.0408, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.419691 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.165648 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.155989 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.087223 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.069715 } ], "others_margin": -0.289739 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07481937855482101, "model_output": 0.0748, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1281 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0489 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 0.0748, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499435 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.284034 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.16985 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.153601 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.087846 } ], "others_margin": -0.276224 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22723613679409027, "model_output": 0.2272, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0293 } ], "others": -0.1356, "total": 0.2272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.20274 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041583 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.034116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029283 } ], "others_margin": -0.135581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720470428466797, "model_output": 6.7205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 6.7205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.084925 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024515 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024309 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008565 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007718 } ], "others_margin": 0.00201 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0390, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3764, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0341, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0424, "shots_on_target": 0.0777, "total_shots": 0.2361, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 13.27, "total_pass": 8.1979, "accurate_pass": 7.5628, "duels_won": 0.5836, "total_long_balls": 0.3433, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3433, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5064, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3483, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.7815, "possession_lost": 0.6351, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2919, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2919, "tackles": 0.2919, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2919, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9269, "total_progression": 2.8348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1583 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0379)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3764, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assists": 0.0328, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0408, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2298, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 13.27, "total_pass": 8.1979, "accurate_pass": 7.5628, "duels_won": 0.5836, "total_long_balls": 0.3433, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3433, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5064, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3483, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.7815, "possession_lost": 0.6351, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2919, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.008, "tackles_won": 0.2915, "tackles": 0.2919, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9269, "total_progression": 2.8348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1583 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0379, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1474, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.008 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.2361, "after": 0.2298 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.3 to 17.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.47)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0438, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.71, "projection_minutes": 13.27, "minutes_scale": 1.3346, "appearance_probability": 0.466 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0438, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, 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"key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, 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{ "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 6.6834, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067751 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032508 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006708 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.006632 } ], "others_margin": -0.037619 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3961, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0403, "assist_rate": 0.0403, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "shots_on_target": 0.1951, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6834, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 12.2361, "accurate_pass": 10.2847, "duels_won": 1.4898, "total_long_balls": 0.8167, "accurate_long_balls": 0.436, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6136, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4999, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6711, "crosses_total": 0.4876, "crosses_accurate": 0.2256, "touches": 17.3822, "possession_lost": 3.8078, "dispossessed": 0.5269, "duels_lost": 2.6971, "aerial_won": 0.1368, "aerial_lost": 0.7762, "interceptions": 0.0683, "tackles_won": 0.4138, "tackles": 0.4632, "clearances": 0.1541, "total_contest": 0.6599, "won_contest": 0.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.3745, "fouls": 0.6834, "fouls_drawn": 0.6154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 4.4223, "total_progression": 11.767, "progressive_carries": 0.7673, "shots_off_target": 0.496 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3961, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "shots_on_target": 0.1986, "total_shots": 0.694, "rating": 6.6834, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 12.2361, "accurate_pass": 10.2847, "duels_won": 1.4898, "total_long_balls": 0.8167, "accurate_long_balls": 0.436, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6136, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4999, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6711, "crosses_total": 0.4853, "crosses_accurate": 0.2256, "touches": 17.3822, "possession_lost": 3.8078, "dispossessed": 0.5269, "duels_lost": 2.6971, "aerial_won": 0.1368, "aerial_lost": 0.7762, "interceptions": 0.0677, "tackles_won": 0.4138, "tackles": 0.4632, "clearances": 0.1541, "total_contest": 0.6599, "won_contest": 0.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.3745, "fouls": 0.6795, "fouls_drawn": 0.6121, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 4.4223, "total_progression": 11.767, "progressive_carries": 0.7673, "shots_off_target": 0.496 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0081, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2503, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.5 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2382, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assists": 0.0241, "assist_rate": 0.0241, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0315, "goal_rate": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.1194, "total_shots": 0.4177, "rating": 6.6834, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 7.359, "accurate_pass": 6.1854, "duels_won": 0.896, "total_long_balls": 0.4912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7747, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4107, "crosses_total": 0.2919, "crosses_accurate": 0.1357, "touches": 10.454, "possession_lost": 2.2901, "dispossessed": 0.5269, "duels_lost": 1.6221, "aerial_won": 0.0823, "aerial_lost": 0.7762, "interceptions": 0.0407, "tackles_won": 0.2489, "tackles": 0.2786, "clearances": 0.0927, "total_contest": 0.3969, "won_contest": 0.165, "challenges_lost": 0.3745, "fouls": 0.4087, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 2.6597, "total_progression": 7.0769, "progressive_carries": 0.4615, "shots_off_target": 0.2983, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.452, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.55, "projection_minutes": 22.53, "minutes_scale": 0.6014, "appearance_probability": 0.452 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2382, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assists": 0.0241, "assist_rate": 0.0241, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0315, "goal_rate": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.1194, "total_shots": 0.4177, "rating": 6.6834, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 7.359, "accurate_pass": 6.1854, "duels_won": 0.896, "total_long_balls": 0.4912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7747, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4107, "crosses_total": 0.2919, "crosses_accurate": 0.1357, "touches": 10.454, "possession_lost": 2.2901, "dispossessed": 0.5269, "duels_lost": 1.6221, "aerial_won": 0.0823, "aerial_lost": 0.7762, "interceptions": 0.0407, "tackles_won": 0.2489, "tackles": 0.2786, "clearances": 0.0927, "total_contest": 0.3969, "won_contest": 0.165, "challenges_lost": 0.3745, "fouls": 0.4087, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 2.6597, "total_progression": 7.0769, "progressive_carries": 0.4615, "shots_off_target": 0.2983, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.452, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2382, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0241, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0315, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1194, "total_shots": 0.4177, "rating": 6.6834, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 7.359, "accurate_pass": 6.1854, "duels_won": 0.896, "total_long_balls": 0.4912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7747, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4107, "crosses_total": 0.2919, "crosses_accurate": 0.1357, "touches": 10.454, "possession_lost": 2.2901, "dispossessed": 0.5269, "duels_lost": 1.6221, "aerial_won": 0.0823, "aerial_lost": 0.7762, "interceptions": 0.0407, "tackles_won": 0.2489, "tackles": 0.2786, "clearances": 0.0927, "total_contest": 0.3969, "won_contest": 0.165, "challenges_lost": 0.3745, "fouls": 0.4087, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 2.6597, "total_progression": 7.0769, "progressive_carries": 0.4615, "shots_off_target": 0.2983, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.452, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.55, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.452, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2382, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0241, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0315, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1194, "total_shots": 0.4177, "rating": 6.6834, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 7.359, "accurate_pass": 6.1854, "duels_won": 0.896, "total_long_balls": 0.4912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7747, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4107, "crosses_total": 0.2919, "crosses_accurate": 0.1357, "touches": 10.454, "possession_lost": 2.2901, "dispossessed": 0.5269, "duels_lost": 1.6221, "aerial_won": 0.0823, "aerial_lost": 0.7762, "interceptions": 0.0407, "tackles_won": 0.2489, "tackles": 0.2786, "clearances": 0.0927, "total_contest": 0.3969, "won_contest": 0.165, "challenges_lost": 0.3745, "fouls": 0.4087, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 2.6597, "total_progression": 7.0769, "progressive_carries": 0.4615, "shots_off_target": 0.2983, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.452, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.55, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1376, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Julián Alvarez": { "player_id": 944656, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 170, "market_value": 116000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0711, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 4.3564, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.111, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0679, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0476, "finishing_factor": 1.1742, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 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"Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2286, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14081807, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2591, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083612, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2889, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083602, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4966, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081795, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2713, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083561, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083472, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 66, "combined_rank_score": 77.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 80.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5533, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8004, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking": 61 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 }, { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 }, { "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking": 69 }, { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462248 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.077213 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.075924 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.049809 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044745 } ], "others_margin": -0.032053 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1898974180221558, "model_output": 1.1899, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4948 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1086 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": 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"contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.0547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.340699 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.150968 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.121524 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.085648 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.070099 } ], "others_margin": -0.00547 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5023021697998047, "model_output": 0.5023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2317 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0275, "total": 0.5023, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.421843 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100552 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100133 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.08116 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047054 } ], "others_margin": 0.056281 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.800375938415527, "model_output": 6.8004, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0861 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0669, "total": 6.8004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015273 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.014416 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.011987 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010853 } ], "others_margin": 0.066958 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0155, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1059, "goal_rate": 0.1059, "shots_on_target": 0.3901, "total_shots": 1.2083, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.5101, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 32.09, "total_pass": 15.6309, "accurate_pass": 14.1718, "duels_won": 2.3194, "total_long_balls": 0.6248, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1815, "crosses_total": 0.6761, "crosses_accurate": 0.236, "touches": 25.6666, "possession_lost": 5.3872, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 2.3634, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 2.3144, "won_contest": 1.3642, "ball_recovery": 1.0511, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.4169, "fouls_drawn": 0.6222, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.3331, "clearances": 0.0423, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0847, "big_chances_missed": 0.3873, "xgot": 0.1262, "offsides": 0.1114, "ball_carries": 9.4511, "total_progression": 23.2567, "progressive_carries": 1.249, "shots_off_target": 0.8182 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 116000000, "quality_factor": 0.897, "boost_factor": 1.0155, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1057, "goal_rate": 0.1057, "shots_on_target": 0.3894, "total_shots": 1.2084, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.5101, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 32.09, "total_pass": 15.6309, "accurate_pass": 14.1718, "duels_won": 2.3194, "total_long_balls": 0.6248, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1815, "crosses_total": 0.6749, "crosses_accurate": 0.236, "touches": 25.6666, "possession_lost": 5.3872, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 2.3634, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 2.3144, "won_contest": 1.3642, "ball_recovery": 1.0511, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.4162, "fouls_drawn": 0.6211, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1499, "tackles": 0.3331, "clearances": 0.0423, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0847, "big_chances_missed": 0.3873, "xgot": 0.1262, "offsides": 0.1112, "ball_carries": 9.4511, "total_progression": 23.2567, "progressive_carries": 1.249, "shots_off_target": 0.8182 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3566, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 32.1 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "shots_on_target": 0.3149, "total_shots": 0.9772, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4125, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 12.6401, "accurate_pass": 11.4602, "duels_won": 1.8756, "total_long_balls": 0.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4397, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0421, "crosses_total": 0.5458, "crosses_accurate": 0.1908, "touches": 20.7556, "possession_lost": 4.3564, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 1.9112, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 1.8716, "won_contest": 1.1032, "ball_recovery": 0.85, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.3366, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1212, "tackles": 0.2694, "clearances": 0.0342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0685, "big_chances_missed": 0.3132, "xgot": 0.1021, "offsides": 0.1112, "ball_carries": 7.6428, "total_progression": 18.8068, "progressive_carries": 1.01, "shots_off_target": 0.6616, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.95, "projection_minutes": 32.09, "minutes_scale": 0.8087, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "shots_on_target": 0.3149, "total_shots": 0.9772, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4125, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 12.6401, "accurate_pass": 11.4602, "duels_won": 1.8756, "total_long_balls": 0.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4397, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0421, "crosses_total": 0.5458, "crosses_accurate": 0.1908, "touches": 20.7556, "possession_lost": 4.3564, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 1.9112, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 1.8716, "won_contest": 1.1032, 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"importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0642, "total": 0.1471, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.325557 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.284295 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.108957 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10631 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.081254 } ], "others_margin": 0.573379 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.7105963230133057, "model_output": 1.7106, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1985 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1282 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.152 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.096 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0832 } ], "others": 0.7763, "total": 1.7106, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.349155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.23896 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.224791 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.119677 }, { "name": 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"margin": 0.048338 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.047605 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.042668 } ], "others_margin": 0.103102 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goals": 0.1142, "goal_rate": 0.1142, "shots_on_target": 0.3892, "total_shots": 1.1476, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.7306, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 31.0, "total_pass": 19.3003, "accurate_pass": 14.7336, "duels_won": 1.1391, "total_long_balls": 1.8, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2172, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6004, "crosses_total": 2.0354, "crosses_accurate": 0.8643, "touches": 27.8514, "possession_lost": 8.8286, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.6418, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.0091, "won_contest": 0.375, "ball_recovery": 2.0374, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3377, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.4191, "assist_rate": 0.4191, "interceptions": 0.1907, "tackles_won": 0.1378, "tackles": 0.1378, "clearances": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2752, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1285, "offsides": 0.1678, "ball_carries": 12.1165, "total_progression": 50.2146, "progressive_carries": 1.4582, "shots_off_target": 0.7584 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0097)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goals": 0.1187, "goal_rate": 0.1187, "shots_on_target": 0.391, "total_shots": 1.1457, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.7306, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 31.0, "total_pass": 19.3003, "accurate_pass": 14.7336, "duels_won": 1.1391, "total_long_balls": 1.8, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2172, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6004, "crosses_total": 2.023, 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"minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.0 to 34.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goals": 0.1304, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.1635, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assists": 0.4581, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1412, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.06, "projection_minutes": 31.0, "minutes_scale": 1.0987, "appearance_probability": 0.621 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goals": 0.1304, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.1635, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assists": 0.4581, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1412, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.1635, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1412, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, 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1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1261, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.621 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0813, "after": 0.0726 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1635, "after": 0.147 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.147, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1261, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 244, "fifa_rank": 312.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1261, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0685, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "scorer_weight": 0.0907, "squad_weight_total": 2.409, "weight_share": 0.0377, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.621, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.71, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.71, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4553 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4553, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4553, "runner_up": "Jonathan David", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3021 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.147, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, 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"match_id": 14083602, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4966, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081795, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2713, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083561, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083472, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 66, "combined_rank_score": 77.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 80.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5533, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8004, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking": 61 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 }, { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 }, { "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking": 69 }, { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", 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"Getafe", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 37.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 15.1591, "expectedGoals": 0.1747, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.3224, "accuratePass": 17.096, "totalShots": 1.9469 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0796264186501503, "model_output": 0.0796, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.1043, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.540429 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.079313 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052733 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.049712 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045779 } ], "others_margin": 0.008549 } }, { "target": 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"shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.058315 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.052525 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.04295 } ], "others_margin": 0.04841 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05466724559664726, "model_output": 0.0547, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.0547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.340699 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.150968 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.121524 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.085648 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.070099 } ], "others_margin": -0.00547 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5023021697998047, "model_output": 0.5023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2317 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0275, "total": 0.5023, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.421843 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100552 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100133 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.08116 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047054 } ], "others_margin": 0.056281 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.800375938415527, "model_output": 6.8004, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0861 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0669, "total": 6.8004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015273 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.014416 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.011987 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010853 } ], "others_margin": 0.066958 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0155, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1059, "goal_rate": 0.1059, "shots_on_target": 0.3901, "total_shots": 1.2083, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.5101, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 32.09, "total_pass": 15.6309, "accurate_pass": 14.1718, "duels_won": 2.3194, "total_long_balls": 0.6248, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1815, "crosses_total": 0.6761, "crosses_accurate": 0.236, "touches": 25.6666, "possession_lost": 5.3872, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 2.3634, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 2.3144, "won_contest": 1.3642, "ball_recovery": 1.0511, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.4169, "fouls_drawn": 0.6222, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.3331, "clearances": 0.0423, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0847, "big_chances_missed": 0.3873, "xgot": 0.1262, "offsides": 0.1114, "ball_carries": 9.4511, "total_progression": 23.2567, "progressive_carries": 1.249, "shots_off_target": 0.8182 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 116000000, "quality_factor": 0.897, "boost_factor": 1.0155, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goals": 0.1057, "goal_rate": 0.1057, "shots_on_target": 0.3894, "total_shots": 1.2084, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.5101, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 32.09, "total_pass": 15.6309, "accurate_pass": 14.1718, "duels_won": 2.3194, "total_long_balls": 0.6248, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1815, "crosses_total": 0.6749, "crosses_accurate": 0.236, "touches": 25.6666, "possession_lost": 5.3872, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 2.3634, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 2.3144, "won_contest": 1.3642, "ball_recovery": 1.0511, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.4162, "fouls_drawn": 0.6211, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1499, "tackles": 0.3331, "clearances": 0.0423, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0847, "big_chances_missed": 0.3873, "xgot": 0.1262, "offsides": 0.1112, "ball_carries": 9.4511, "total_progression": 23.2567, "progressive_carries": 1.249, "shots_off_target": 0.8182 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3566, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 32.1 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "shots_on_target": 0.3149, "total_shots": 0.9772, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4125, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 12.6401, "accurate_pass": 11.4602, "duels_won": 1.8756, "total_long_balls": 0.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4397, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0421, "crosses_total": 0.5458, "crosses_accurate": 0.1908, "touches": 20.7556, "possession_lost": 4.3564, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 1.9112, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 1.8716, "won_contest": 1.1032, "ball_recovery": 0.85, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.3366, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1212, "tackles": 0.2694, "clearances": 0.0342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0685, "big_chances_missed": 0.3132, "xgot": 0.1021, "offsides": 0.1112, "ball_carries": 7.6428, "total_progression": 18.8068, "progressive_carries": 1.01, "shots_off_target": 0.6616, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.95, "projection_minutes": 32.09, "minutes_scale": 0.8087, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "shots_on_target": 0.3149, "total_shots": 0.9772, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4125, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 12.6401, "accurate_pass": 11.4602, "duels_won": 1.8756, "total_long_balls": 0.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4397, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0421, "crosses_total": 0.5458, "crosses_accurate": 0.1908, "touches": 20.7556, "possession_lost": 4.3564, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 1.9112, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 1.8716, "won_contest": 1.1032, 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9.0421, "crosses_total": 0.5458, "crosses_accurate": 0.1908, "touches": 20.7556, "possession_lost": 4.3564, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 1.9112, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 1.8716, "won_contest": 1.1032, "ball_recovery": 0.85, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.3366, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1212, "tackles": 0.2694, "clearances": 0.0342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0685, "big_chances_missed": 0.3132, "xgot": 0.111, "offsides": 0.1112, "ball_carries": 7.6428, "total_progression": 18.8068, "progressive_carries": 1.01, "shots_off_target": 0.6616, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1742, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.756 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0654, "after": 0.0711 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0711, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3149, "total_shots": 0.9772, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.4125, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 12.6401, "accurate_pass": 11.4602, "duels_won": 1.8756, "total_long_balls": 0.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4397, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0421, "crosses_total": 0.5458, "crosses_accurate": 0.1908, "touches": 20.7556, "possession_lost": 4.3564, "dispossessed": 0.865, "duels_lost": 1.9112, "aerial_lost": 0.2295, "total_contest": 1.8716, "won_contest": 1.1032, "ball_recovery": 0.85, "challenges_lost": 0.0847, "fouls": 0.3366, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1212, "tackles": 0.2694, "clearances": 0.0342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0685, "big_chances_missed": 0.3132, "xgot": 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"margin": 0.048338 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.047605 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.042668 } ], "others_margin": 0.103102 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goals": 0.1142, "goal_rate": 0.1142, "shots_on_target": 0.3892, "total_shots": 1.1476, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.7306, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 31.0, "total_pass": 19.3003, "accurate_pass": 14.7336, "duels_won": 1.1391, "total_long_balls": 1.8, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2172, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6004, "crosses_total": 2.0354, "crosses_accurate": 0.8643, "touches": 27.8514, "possession_lost": 8.8286, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.6418, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.0091, "won_contest": 0.375, "ball_recovery": 2.0374, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3377, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.4191, "assist_rate": 0.4191, "interceptions": 0.1907, "tackles_won": 0.1378, "tackles": 0.1378, "clearances": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2752, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1285, "offsides": 0.1678, "ball_carries": 12.1165, "total_progression": 50.2146, "progressive_carries": 1.4582, "shots_off_target": 0.7584 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0097)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goals": 0.1187, "goal_rate": 0.1187, "shots_on_target": 0.391, "total_shots": 1.1457, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.7306, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 31.0, "total_pass": 19.3003, "accurate_pass": 14.7336, "duels_won": 1.1391, "total_long_balls": 1.8, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2172, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6004, "crosses_total": 2.023, "crosses_accurate": 0.8643, "touches": 27.8514, "possession_lost": 8.8286, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.6418, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.0091, "won_contest": 0.375, "ball_recovery": 2.0374, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3321, "fouls_drawn": 0.5073, "assists": 0.4169, "assist_rate": 0.4169, "interceptions": 0.1907, "tackles_won": 0.1365, "tackles": 0.1378, "clearances": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2752, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1285, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 12.1165, "total_progression": 50.2146, "progressive_carries": 1.4582, "shots_off_target": 0.7584 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0097, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3444, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0354, "after": 2.023 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3377, "after": 1.3321 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.0 to 34.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goals": 0.1304, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.1635, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assists": 0.4581, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1412, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.06, "projection_minutes": 31.0, "minutes_scale": 1.0987, "appearance_probability": 0.621 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goals": 0.1304, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.1635, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assists": 0.4581, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1412, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.1635, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1412, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.33 (squad xG sum 1.6168, xG scale 1.4380, xA scale 1.4481, team xA 1.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.147, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1261, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.621 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0813, "after": 0.0726 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1635, "after": 0.147 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.147, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1261, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 244, "fifa_rank": 312.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.147, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1261, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0685, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "scorer_weight": 0.0907, "squad_weight_total": 2.409, "weight_share": 0.0377, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.621, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.71, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.71, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4553 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4553, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4553, "runner_up": "Jonathan David", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3021 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.1304, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4296, "total_shots": 1.2629, "expected_assists": 0.147, "key_pass": 1.9014, "rating": 6.9775, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.2054, "accurate_pass": 16.1879, "duels_won": 1.2515, "total_long_balls": 1.9777, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6468, "crosses_total": 2.2227, "crosses_accurate": 0.9496, "touches": 30.6006, "possession_lost": 9.7001, "dispossessed": 0.6449, "duels_lost": 2.9026, "aerial_lost": 0.1916, "total_contest": 1.1087, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 2.2385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4636, "fouls_drawn": 0.5574, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2095, "tackles_won": 0.15, "tackles": 0.1514, "clearances": 0.2991, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1261, "offsides": 0.1699, "ball_carries": 13.3125, "total_progression": 55.1713, "progressive_carries": 1.6021, "shots_off_target": 0.8333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0685, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1309, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1309, "assist_rate": 0.4581, "provider_weight": 0.1837, "squad_weight_total": 1.5221, "weight_share": 0.1207, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.621, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "weight": 0.1971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1971, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1837 } ] } } ] }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "player_id": 859917, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 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0.2272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.20274 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041583 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.034116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029283 } ], "others_margin": -0.135581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720470428466797, "model_output": 6.7205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 6.7205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.084925 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024515 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024309 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008565 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007718 } ], "others_margin": 0.00201 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0390, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3764, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0341, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0424, "shots_on_target": 0.0777, "total_shots": 0.2361, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 13.27, "total_pass": 8.1979, "accurate_pass": 7.5628, "duels_won": 0.5836, "total_long_balls": 0.3433, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3433, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5064, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3483, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.7815, "possession_lost": 0.6351, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2919, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2919, "tackles": 0.2919, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2919, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9269, "total_progression": 2.8348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1583 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0379)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3764, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assists": 0.0328, "assist_rate": 0.0328, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0408, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2298, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 13.27, "total_pass": 8.1979, "accurate_pass": 7.5628, "duels_won": 0.5836, "total_long_balls": 0.3433, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3433, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5064, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3483, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.7815, "possession_lost": 0.6351, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2919, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.008, "tackles_won": 0.2915, "tackles": 0.2919, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9269, "total_progression": 2.8348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1583 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0379, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1474, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.008 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.2361, "after": 0.2298 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.3 to 17.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.47)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0438, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.71, "projection_minutes": 13.27, "minutes_scale": 1.3346, "appearance_probability": 0.466 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0438, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.33 (squad xG sum 1.6168, xG scale 1.4380, xA scale 1.4481, team xA 1.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1814 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.325, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6168, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0436, "team_expected_assists": 1.5113, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.438, "xa_scale": 1.4481, "opponent_lambda": 1.337, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.466 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0328, "after": 0.022 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0294, "after": 0.0198 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 404, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0215, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0215, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "scorer_weight": 0.0275, "squad_weight_total": 2.409, "weight_share": 0.0114, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.466, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.71, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.71, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4553 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.4553, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4553, "runner_up": "Jonathan David", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3021 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5023, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0998, "total_shots": 0.3111, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2113, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.543, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0215, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0194, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0194, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "provider_weight": 0.0234, "squad_weight_total": 1.5221, "weight_share": 0.0154, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "appearance_weight": 0.466, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "weight": 0.1971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1971, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1837 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.33, "expected_assists": 1.51, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 535, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 7.0, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Javier Hernández", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Jan Oblak" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.59, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.1204, "xg_multiplier": 0.7646, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Oblak", "role": "GK", "market_value": 16000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Hernández (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jan Oblak in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.683, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3744, "xg_multiplier": 0.9341, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Robin Le Normand", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Robin Le Normand and Cristian Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.374 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Zaragoza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.683, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0969, "xg_multiplier": 0.748, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Robin Le Normand", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Zaragoza (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Robin Le Normand and Cristian Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tyrhys Dolan", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.683, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0895, "xg_multiplier": 0.7739, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Robin Le Normand", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrhys Dolan (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Robin Le Normand and Cristian Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pol Lozano", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "xg_contribution": 0.036, "xg_multiplier": 0.789, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pol Lozano (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.0988, "xg_multiplier": 0.7708, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Koke", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.589, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "xg_contribution": 0.0404, "xg_multiplier": 0.8327, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634 } ], "duel_analysis": "Koke (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Omar El Hilali in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Clemens Riedel" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.49, "xg_contribution": 0.2062, "xg_multiplier": 1.0149, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Clemens Riedel", "role": "LB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Grimaldo (RW) is evenly matched against Clemens Riedel in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.206 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Barrios", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Pol Lozano", "Edu Expósito" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.464, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.078, "xg_multiplier": 1.3021, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pol Lozano", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 }, { "player": "Edu Expósito", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Barrios (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pol Lozano and Edu Expósito in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.30 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan David", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.489, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.4631, "xg_multiplier": 1.0935, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan David (ST) is slightly favored against Leandro Cabrera and Quilindschy Hartman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €6M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.463 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.489, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.28, "xg_contribution": 0.3135, "xg_multiplier": 1.1179, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 }, { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) is slightly favored against Leandro Cabrera and Quilindschy Hartman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €6M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.313 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Pol Lozano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "xg_contribution": 0.145, "xg_multiplier": 1.211, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pol Lozano", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.436 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pol Lozano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €6M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.145 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Johnny Cardoso", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Pol Lozano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "xg_contribution": 0.0387, "xg_multiplier": 1.1685, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pol Lozano", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johnny Cardoso (CDM) is slightly favored against Pol Lozano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.469, "away_midfield_power": 0.726, "home_creative_power": 0.492, "away_creative_power": 0.64, "home_defensive_power": 0.401, "away_defensive_power": 0.651, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.393, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Javier Hernández", "Pol Lozano", "Edu Expósito" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Giuliano Simeone", "Koke", "Johnny Cardoso", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Javier Hernández vs Pablo Barrios", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.967, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.04 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.337, "away_lambda": 2.325, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Javier Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Jan Oblak", "Johnny Cardoso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Cristian Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "opponents": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Cristian Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrhys Dolan": { "opponents": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Cristian Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pol Lozano": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Pablo Barrios", "Johnny Cardoso", "Koke" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Pablo Barrios", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Koke" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Clemens Riedel": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leandro Cabrera": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Quilindschy Hartman": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ángel Fortuño": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman", "Jonathan David" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Robin Le Normand": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza", "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza", "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Pol Lozano", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Koke": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "opponents": [ "Clemens Riedel", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Pol Lozano", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan David": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Johnny Cardoso": { "opponents": [ "Pol Lozano", "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Javier Hernández vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.28. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.068, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9375, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9836, "home_midfield_factor": 0.967, "away_midfield_factor": 1.04, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5089, "away_avg_quality": 0.6898, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1809, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.1859, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.1436, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.3185, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3683, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2026, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1179, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.816, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9495 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.967, "result": 0.9182 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9182 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.0559 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9171, "result": 0.9684 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9481, "result": 0.9181 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9375, "result": 0.8607 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.088, "result": 0.9487 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9487, "result": 0.9487, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3683, "factor": 0.8821, "pre": 0.9487, "result": 0.8369 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8369 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2195, "result": 1.0565 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.8765, "result": 1.4715 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4715, "result": 1.472, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.472, "result": 1.4405, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9732, "pre": 1.4405, "result": 1.402 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.402 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9539, "input_total": 3.662, "result": 1.3374 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.3374, "result": 1.337, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.337 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2849, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.3012 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.04, "result": 1.3532 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3532 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3532 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0585, "result": 1.4324 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.4476 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9836, "result": 1.424 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.068, "result": 1.492 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.492, "result": 1.492, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3683, "factor": 1.2026, "pre": 1.492, "result": 1.7942 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.7942 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1707, "result": 1.9647 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.8864, "result": 2.1749 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.1749, "result": 2.175, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 2.175, "result": 2.2215, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0971, "pre": 2.2215, "result": 2.437 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.437 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9539, "input_total": 3.662, "result": 2.3246 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.3246, "result": 2.325, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 2.325 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2195, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1707, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Espanyol", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3683, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0971, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9732, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.4405, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.2215, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.402, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.437, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4715, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.1749, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.337, "final_away_lambda": 2.325 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9171, "attack_index": 0.956, "defense_concede_index": 0.859, "form_multiplier": 0.961, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.48, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.94 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0585, "attack_index": 1.183, "defense_concede_index": 0.956, "form_multiplier": 1.039, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.83, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.48, "team_ppg": 1.94, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.472, Away 2.175). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.337, Away 2.325 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Espanyol", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.337, "away_lambda": 2.325, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.472, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.175 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-16T13:31:42Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }