{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1227, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1009, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0807, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2582, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1227 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1009 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0904 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0807 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0758 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0696, "0-1": 0.0807, "0-2": 0.0488, "0-3": 0.0194, "0-4": 0.0058, "0-5": 0.0014, "1-0": 0.1009, "1-1": 0.1227, "1-2": 0.0726, "1-3": 0.0289, "1-4": 0.0086, "1-5": 0.0021, "2-0": 0.0758, "2-1": 0.0904, "2-2": 0.0539, "2-3": 0.0215, "2-4": 0.0064, "2-5": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.0376, "3-1": 0.0448, "3-2": 0.0267, "3-3": 0.0106, "3-4": 0.0032, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.014, "4-1": 0.0167, "4-2": 0.0099, "4-3": 0.004, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0042, "5-1": 0.005, "5-2": 0.003, "5-3": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.001, "6-1": 0.0012, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4386, "draw": 0.2582, "away_win": 0.3032 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5015, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4985, "btts_yes": 0.5403, "btts_no": 0.4597, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3033, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2261 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.85, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.84, "GK": 6.97 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 6.96 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Newcastle vs Aston Villa. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Newcastle 5W-2D-3L vs Aston Villa over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Yoane Wissa, Nicolas Jackson", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Nico González vs Johan Manzambi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.487, "away_lambda": 1.193, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0143, "away_multiplier": 0.9857 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1227, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4386, "draw": 0.2582, "away_win": 0.3032 }, "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4386, "fair_spread": 0.294, "fair_total": 2.68, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.487, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.193, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5015, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5403, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3033, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2261, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.324, "probability": 0.2767, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.3445, "probability": 0.2914, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.1613, "probability": 0.149, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.1453, "probability": 0.1352, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.68, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 863, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.3, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4386, "script": "Newcastle is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.29 goals and fair total 2.68.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Aston Villa must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Newcastle lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Aston Villa chance creation leans on Nicolas Jackson against Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through Yoane Wissa; bench watchlist: Nick Woltemade, Bazoumana Touré, Aladji Bamba.", "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through Nicolas Jackson; bench watchlist: Ibrahim Mbaye, Matteo Ruggeri, Alejandro Garnacho.", "Assist usage should flow through Harvey Barnes, Johan Manzambi; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Newcastle tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.34 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Aston Villa is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Newcastle.", "Aston Villa wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Newcastle": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Sven Botman": { "player_id": 910046, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 193, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.944, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 42, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 8.7975, "dispossessed": 0.1543, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1649, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0638, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 98, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0475, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0525, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363874, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 70, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 10, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363868, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 66, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 14, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 70, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 8, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023957, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0944, "expected_assists": 0.3653, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 848, "combined_rank_score": 403.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 515.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.944, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sven Botman", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emerson Royal", "ranking": 843 }, { "player_name": "Jovanny Bolívar", "ranking": 844 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Zenteno", "ranking": 845 }, { "player_name": "Ilir Krasniqi", "ranking": 846 }, { "player_name": "Domenico Berardi", "ranking": 847 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gerard Moreno", "ranking": 849 }, { "player_name": "Rustamzhon Abdukhamidov", "ranking": 850 }, { "player_name": "Matvey Safonov", "ranking": 851 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Trossard", "ranking": 852 }, { "player_name": "André-Franck Zambo Anguissa", "ranking": 853 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2071, "tackles": 1.3734, "tackles_won": 0.8191, "clearances": 6.9796, "aerial_won": 3.4104, "total_shots": 0.6441, "rating": 6.944, "minutes": 89.07, "total_pass": 62.1248, "accurate_pass": 54.3139, "duels_won": 7.0534, "total_long_balls": 6.6979, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3984, "total_own_half_passes": 41.7883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0193, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2946, "crosses_total": 0.0217, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 79.0809, "possession_lost": 8.7975, "dispossessed": 0.1543, "duels_lost": 3.2523, "aerial_lost": 2.2097, "total_contest": 0.0858, "won_contest": 0.0858, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.4348, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.8483, "blocks": 1.105, "goals": 0.1669, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0099, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9389, "tackles": 0.9553, "tackles_won": 0.6124, "clearances": 6.4489, "aerial_won": 2.8148, "total_shots": 0.4525, "rating": 6.8436, "minutes": 89.82, "total_pass": 57.9792, "accurate_pass": 50.5474, "duels_won": 4.2035, "total_long_balls": 7.162, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1948, "total_own_half_passes": 36.0636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.007, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5402, "crosses_total": 0.0183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0059, "touches": 70.1559, "possession_lost": 7.7693, "dispossessed": 0.0022, "duels_lost": 2.7886, "aerial_lost": 1.7962, "total_contest": 0.3389, "won_contest": 0.3389, "ball_recovery": 2.9442, "challenges_lost": 0.384, "fouls": 0.6292, "fouls_drawn": 0.3895, "blocks": 1.1791, "goals": 0.0157, 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0501, "tackles": 1.7006, "tackles_won": 1.133, "clearances": 3.1449, "aerial_won": 1.1553, "total_shots": 0.6381, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 83.31, "total_pass": 30.6109, "accurate_pass": 25.6061, "duels_won": 5.0637, "total_long_balls": 2.1789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7835, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7412, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8649, "crosses_total": 1.0172, "crosses_accurate": 0.7423, "touches": 53.1188, "possession_lost": 10.6356, "dispossessed": 0.3234, "duels_lost": 5.1732, "aerial_lost": 1.6776, "total_contest": 2.8099, "won_contest": 1.0584, "ball_recovery": 3.9592, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4207, "fouls_drawn": 0.9059, "blocks": 0.4323, "goals": 0.0, 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0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9604, "goals_prevented": 0.0073, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.1924, "accurate_pass": 20.3091, "total_long_balls": 13.1836, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6221, "touches": 41.9227, "clearances": 1.9489, "ball_recovery": 7.4853, "high_claims": 0.2667, "punches": 1.2404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.5144, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5144, "saves_inside_box": 2.5823, "possession_lost": 10.5836, "duels_won": 0.1479, "duels_lost": 0.4455, "total_contest": 0.3526, "won_contest": 0.1479, "fouls": 0.2408, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8106 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-12", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 5.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 3.6221, "save_contribution": 3.0317, "distribution_accuracy": 0.882, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 17.8106, "passValueNormalized": 0.0362, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 20.0974 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9604294300079346, "model_output": 2.9604, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0688 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0143, "total": 2.9604, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.023686 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012962 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.012632 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.007845 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.007642 } ], "others_margin": 0.004865 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.007319437339901924, "model_output": 0.0073, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": 0.0174, "total": 0.0073, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.022067 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.018123 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017662 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.01652 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.012775 } ], "others_margin": 0.017572 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.972084999084473, "model_output": 6.9721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0235, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "saves": 3.03, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.9019, "accurate_pass": 20.7864, "total_long_balls": 13.4934, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7072, "touches": 42.9079, "clearances": 1.9947, "ball_recovery": 7.6612, "high_claims": 0.273, "punches": 1.2695, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.5265, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5265, "saves_inside_box": 2.643, "possession_lost": 10.8323, "duels_won": 0.1514, "duels_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 0.3609, "won_contest": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.2465, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2291 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 25000000, "quality_factor": 0.6773, "boost_factor": 1.0235, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0879, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.9019, "accurate_pass": 20.7864, "total_long_balls": 13.4934, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7072, "touches": 42.9079, "clearances": 1.9947, "ball_recovery": 7.6612, "high_claims": 0.273, "punches": 1.2695, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.5265, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5265, "saves_inside_box": 2.643, "possession_lost": 10.8323, "duels_won": 0.1514, "duels_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 0.3609, "won_contest": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.2368, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2291 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0394, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.03, "after": 3.0879 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2465, "after": 0.2368 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0879, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.9019, "accurate_pass": 20.7864, "total_long_balls": 13.4934, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7072, "touches": 42.9079, "clearances": 1.9947, "ball_recovery": 7.6612, "high_claims": 0.273, "punches": 1.2695, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.5265, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5265, "saves_inside_box": 2.643, "possession_lost": 10.8323, "duels_won": 0.1514, "duels_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 0.3609, "won_contest": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.2368, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2291 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0879, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.9019, "accurate_pass": 20.7864, "total_long_balls": 13.4934, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7072, "touches": 42.9079, "clearances": 1.9947, "ball_recovery": 7.6612, "high_claims": 0.273, "punches": 1.2695, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.5265, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5265, "saves_inside_box": 2.643, "possession_lost": 10.8323, "duels_won": 0.1514, "duels_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 0.3609, "won_contest": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.2368, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2291, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2102, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.81, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2102 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0879, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.9019, "accurate_pass": 20.7864, "total_long_balls": 13.4934, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7072, "touches": 42.9079, "clearances": 1.9947, "ball_recovery": 7.6612, "high_claims": 0.273, "punches": 1.2695, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.5265, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5265, "saves_inside_box": 2.643, "possession_lost": 10.8323, "duels_won": 0.1514, "duels_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 0.3609, "won_contest": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.2368, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2291, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2102, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.81, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0879, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.9019, "accurate_pass": 20.7864, "total_long_balls": 13.4934, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7072, "touches": 42.9079, "clearances": 1.9947, "ball_recovery": 7.6612, "high_claims": 0.273, "punches": 1.2695, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.5265, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5265, "saves_inside_box": 2.643, "possession_lost": 10.8323, "duels_won": 0.1514, "duels_lost": 0.456, "total_contest": 0.3609, "won_contest": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.2368, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2291, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2102, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.5, "after": 11.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.81, "after": 2.76 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.97, "after": 0.95 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3969 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1153 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0714 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0623 } ], "others": -0.2062, "total": 0.8284, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.339898 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111221 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.063123 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.061989 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.0585 } ], "others_margin": -0.222336 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8853496313095093, "model_output": 0.8853, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2006 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0613 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0264 } ], "others": 0.0508, "total": 0.8853, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.200618 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.036413 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035288 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.02638 } ], "others_margin": 0.050876 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.905414581298828, "model_output": 6.9054, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": 0.0324, "total": 6.9054, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.054016 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043003 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038874 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026438 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.021173 } ], "others_margin": 0.03243 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1092, "tackles": 1.9219, "tackles_won": 1.4003, "clearances": 3.4078, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.8959, "rating": 6.9054, "minutes": 88.28, "total_pass": 52.6966, "accurate_pass": 46.518, "duels_won": 4.9779, "total_long_balls": 5.656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0824, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2905, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.5919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.2275, "crosses_total": 3.9473, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 84.5148, "possession_lost": 15.4374, "dispossessed": 1.5888, "duels_lost": 6.1282, "aerial_lost": 1.849, "total_contest": 2.3508, "won_contest": 1.022, "ball_recovery": 6.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.5949, "fouls_drawn": 1.3464, "blocks": 0.9894, "goals": 0.1449, 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"after": 0.6042 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4003, "after": 1.4062 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5166, "after": 0.5111 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.113, "tackles": 1.9219, "tackles_won": 1.4062, "clearances": 3.4078, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.8916, "rating": 6.9054, "minutes": 88.28, "total_pass": 52.6966, "accurate_pass": 46.518, "duels_won": 4.9779, "total_long_balls": 5.656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0824, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2905, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.5919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.2275, "crosses_total": 3.947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 84.5148, "possession_lost": 15.4374, "dispossessed": 1.5888, "duels_lost": 6.1282, "aerial_lost": 1.849, "total_contest": 2.3508, "won_contest": 1.022, "ball_recovery": 6.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.6042, "fouls_drawn": 1.3425, "blocks": 0.9894, "goals": 0.1434, "goal_rate": 0.1434, "assists": 0.0948, "assist_rate": 0.0948, "expected_goals": 0.0494, "expected_assists": 0.1073, "shots_on_target": 0.5111, "big_chances_created": 0.2258, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 18.5949, "total_progression": 76.3505, "progressive_carries": 1.8297, "key_pass": 1.11, "shots_off_target": 0.3793 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.113, "tackles": 1.9219, "tackles_won": 1.4062, "clearances": 3.4078, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.8916, "rating": 6.9054, "minutes": 88.28, "total_pass": 52.6966, "accurate_pass": 46.518, "duels_won": 4.9779, "total_long_balls": 5.656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0824, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2905, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.5919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.2275, "crosses_total": 3.947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 84.5148, "possession_lost": 15.4374, "dispossessed": 1.5888, "duels_lost": 6.1282, "aerial_lost": 1.849, "total_contest": 2.3508, "won_contest": 1.022, "ball_recovery": 6.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.6042, "fouls_drawn": 1.3425, "blocks": 0.9894, "goals": 0.1434, "goal_rate": 0.1434, "assists": 0.0948, "assist_rate": 0.0948, "expected_goals": 0.0494, "expected_assists": 0.1073, "shots_on_target": 0.5111, "big_chances_created": 0.2258, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 18.5949, "total_progression": 76.3505, "progressive_carries": 1.8297, "key_pass": 1.11, "shots_off_target": 0.3793, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Johan Manzambi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right 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1.5888, "duels_lost": 6.1282, "aerial_lost": 1.849, "total_contest": 2.3508, "won_contest": 1.022, "ball_recovery": 6.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.6042, "fouls_drawn": 1.3425, "blocks": 0.9894, "goal_rate": 0.1434, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0948, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0494, "expected_assists": 0.1073, "shots_on_target": 0.5111, "big_chances_created": 0.2258, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 18.5949, "total_progression": 76.3505, "progressive_carries": 1.8297, "key_pass": 1.11, "shots_off_target": 0.3793, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Johan Manzambi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.113, "tackles": 1.9219, "tackles_won": 1.4062, "clearances": 3.4078, "aerial_won": 0.8383, "total_shots": 0.8916, "rating": 6.9054, "minutes": 88.28, "total_pass": 52.6966, "accurate_pass": 46.518, "duels_won": 4.9779, "total_long_balls": 5.656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0824, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2905, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.5919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.2275, "crosses_total": 3.947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 84.5148, "possession_lost": 15.4374, "dispossessed": 1.5888, "duels_lost": 6.1282, "aerial_lost": 1.849, "total_contest": 2.3508, "won_contest": 1.022, "ball_recovery": 6.4482, "challenges_lost": 0.7763, "fouls": 0.6042, "fouls_drawn": 1.3425, "blocks": 0.9894, "goal_rate": 0.1434, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0948, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "expected_assists": 0.1457, "shots_on_target": 0.5111, "big_chances_created": 0.2258, "xgot": 0.0451, "ball_carries": 18.5949, "total_progression": 76.3505, "progressive_carries": 1.8297, "key_pass": 1.11, "shots_off_target": 0.3793, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51, "opponent_faced": "Johan Manzambi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9205 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0494, "after": 0.0625 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1073, "after": 0.1457 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7379, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assist_rate": 0.0739, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0446, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.512, "rating": 6.872, "minutes": 80.81, "total_pass": 49.7664, "accurate_pass": 44.618, "duels_won": 4.0817, "total_long_balls": 2.8349, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4046, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9768, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0771, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6411, "crosses_total": 1.2146, "crosses_accurate": 0.1444, "touches": 63.4748, "possession_lost": 7.9008, "dispossessed": 0.4334, "duels_lost": 2.4135, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8417, "interceptions": 0.8754, "tackles_won": 1.1855, "tackles": 1.6798, "clearances": 2.3645, "total_contest": 0.6173, "won_contest": 0.463, "challenges_lost": 0.7, 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1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0369, "after": 0.0467 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0657, "after": 0.0892 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7379, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assist_rate": 0.0739, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0446, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.512, "rating": 6.872, "minutes": 80.81, "total_pass": 49.7664, "accurate_pass": 44.618, "duels_won": 4.0817, "total_long_balls": 2.8349, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4046, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9768, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0771, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6411, "crosses_total": 1.2146, "crosses_accurate": 0.1444, "touches": 63.4748, "possession_lost": 7.9008, "dispossessed": 0.4334, "duels_lost": 2.4135, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8417, "interceptions": 0.8754, "tackles_won": 1.1855, "tackles": 1.6798, "clearances": 2.3645, "total_contest": 0.6173, "won_contest": 0.463, "challenges_lost": 0.7, "fouls": 0.2865, "fouls_drawn": 0.2224, "blocks": 0.3946, 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2108, "fifa_rank": 1442.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7379, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assist_rate": 0.0739, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0446, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.512, "rating": 6.872, "minutes": 80.81, "total_pass": 49.7664, "accurate_pass": 44.618, "duels_won": 4.0817, "total_long_balls": 2.8349, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4046, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9768, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0771, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6411, "crosses_total": 1.2146, "crosses_accurate": 0.1444, "touches": 63.4748, "possession_lost": 7.9008, "dispossessed": 0.4334, "duels_lost": 2.4135, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8417, 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 57, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 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6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039423 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030774 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014794 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009893 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008371 } ], "others_margin": -0.016908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "assists": 0.0603, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.2753, "total_shots": 0.9628, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 2.7846, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.009, "xgot": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6874 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "assists": 0.0603, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.2753, "total_shots": 0.9628, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 2.7846, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.009, "xgot": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6874 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "assists": 0.0603, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "expected_goals": 0.0723, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.27, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.107, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6742, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Gomes", "opponent_faced": "João Gomes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "João Gomes", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "skill_edge": -0.053, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.6747, "defender_skill": 0.7926, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "João Gomes", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7926 } ], "xg_override": 0.0723 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 2.7846, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9628, "after": 0.9443 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6874, "after": 0.6742 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2753, "after": 0.27 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0723, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.27, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.107, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6742, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Gomes", "opponent_faced": "João Gomes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.27, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1355, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6742, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Gomes", "opponent_faced": "João Gomes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0286, "creation_factor": 1.0185 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0723, "after": 0.0915 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0583, "after": 0.0791 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.27, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1355, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6742, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Gomes", "opponent_faced": "João Gomes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0286, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1539, "fifa_rank": 667.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.27, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1355, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6742, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Gomes", "opponent_faced": "João Gomes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0874, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0286, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0874, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "scorer_weight": 0.0941, "squad_weight_total": 1.5944, "weight_share": 0.059, "finishing_factor": 1.0286, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3512, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3512, "runner_up": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3457 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.27, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.6205, "accurate_pass": 30.9187, "duels_won": 6.6712, "total_long_balls": 1.7194, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1434, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0389, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8799, "crosses_total": 0.4498, "crosses_accurate": 0.1181, "touches": 53.7371, "possession_lost": 11.0972, "dispossessed": 1.4283, "duels_lost": 7.332, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3768, "interceptions": 1.4365, "tackles_won": 1.3782, "tackles": 1.9724, "clearances": 1.4843, "total_contest": 2.2452, "won_contest": 1.2748, "challenges_lost": 0.7469, "fouls": 2.3222, "fouls_drawn": 0.6395, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1355, "ball_carries": 14.1206, "total_progression": 46.8013, "progressive_carries": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.6742, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Gomes", "opponent_faced": "João Gomes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0874, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0761, "finishing_factor": 1.0286, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0761, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "provider_weight": 0.0806, "squad_weight_total": 0.9789, "weight_share": 0.0823, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2016, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2016, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1341, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yoane Wissa" ] } ] } } ] }, "Harvey Barnes": { "player_id": 855647, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 181, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2741, "goal_rate": 0.2383, "goals": 0, 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.247118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118389 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093368 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.092291 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.031581 } ], "others_margin": 0.047531 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.940723419189453, "model_output": 6.9407, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0783 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0645 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 6.9407, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.078281 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064452 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.020118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014951 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01306 } ], "others_margin": 0.023095 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1877, "goals": 0.2085, "goal_rate": 0.2085, "shots_on_target": 0.6189, "total_shots": 1.8925, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "key_pass": 1.2752, "rating": 6.9407, "minutes": 85.66, "total_pass": 23.0321, "accurate_pass": 18.328, "duels_won": 3.1292, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.327, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8911, "crosses_total": 2.4973, "crosses_accurate": 0.3636, "touches": 38.1788, "possession_lost": 10.816, "dispossessed": 0.5493, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.6459, "total_contest": 1.6678, "won_contest": 0.3776, "ball_recovery": 3.2692, "challenges_lost": 0.5695, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4204, "assists": 0.3196, "assist_rate": 0.3196, "interceptions": 0.5206, 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"after": 1.8841 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6189, "after": 0.6133 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1877, "goals": 0.2066, "goal_rate": 0.2066, "shots_on_target": 0.6133, "total_shots": 1.8869, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "key_pass": 1.2752, "rating": 6.9407, "minutes": 85.66, "total_pass": 23.0321, "accurate_pass": 18.328, "duels_won": 3.1292, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.327, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8911, "crosses_total": 2.4876, "crosses_accurate": 0.3636, "touches": 38.1788, "possession_lost": 10.816, "dispossessed": 0.5493, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.6459, "total_contest": 1.6678, "won_contest": 0.3776, "ball_recovery": 3.2692, "challenges_lost": 0.5695, "fouls": 0.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.4248, "assists": 0.3167, "assist_rate": 0.3167, "interceptions": 0.5159, 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"dispossessed": 0.5493, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.6459, "total_contest": 1.6678, "won_contest": 0.3776, "ball_recovery": 3.2692, "challenges_lost": 0.5695, "fouls": 0.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.4248, "assists": 0.3167, "assist_rate": 0.3167, "interceptions": 0.5159, "tackles_won": 0.2105, "tackles": 0.7275, "clearances": 1.3047, "blocks": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.3504, "big_chances_missed": 0.2093, "xgot": 0.237, "offsides": 0.3452, "ball_carries": 14.9059, "total_progression": 73.2067, "progressive_carries": 3.8074, "shots_off_target": 1.4688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1533, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1533, "skill_edge": 0.1283, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.7699, "defender_skill": 0.4849, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "market_value": 4800000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4849 } ], "xg_override": 0.2165 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8869, "after": 2.1762 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2736, "after": 1.4688 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6133, "after": 0.7073 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2066, "after": 0.2383 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2055, "after": 0.237 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1877, "after": 0.2165 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1815, "after": 0.2093 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2165, "goal_rate": 0.2383, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7073, "total_shots": 2.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "key_pass": 1.2752, "rating": 6.9407, "minutes": 85.66, "total_pass": 23.0321, "accurate_pass": 18.328, "duels_won": 3.1292, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.327, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8911, "crosses_total": 2.4876, "crosses_accurate": 0.3636, "touches": 38.1788, "possession_lost": 10.816, "dispossessed": 0.5493, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.6459, "total_contest": 1.6678, "won_contest": 0.3776, "ball_recovery": 3.2692, "challenges_lost": 0.5695, "fouls": 0.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.4248, "assist_rate": 0.3167, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5159, "tackles_won": 0.2105, "tackles": 0.7275, "clearances": 1.3047, "blocks": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.3504, "big_chances_missed": 0.2093, "xgot": 0.237, "offsides": 0.3452, "ball_carries": 14.9059, "total_progression": 73.2067, "progressive_carries": 3.8074, "shots_off_target": 1.4688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1533, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2741, "goal_rate": 0.2383, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7073, "total_shots": 2.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1613, "key_pass": 1.2752, "rating": 6.9407, "minutes": 85.66, "total_pass": 23.0321, "accurate_pass": 18.328, "duels_won": 3.1292, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.327, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8911, "crosses_total": 2.4876, "crosses_accurate": 0.3636, "touches": 38.1788, "possession_lost": 10.816, "dispossessed": 0.5493, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.6459, "total_contest": 1.6678, "won_contest": 0.3776, "ball_recovery": 3.2692, "challenges_lost": 0.5695, "fouls": 0.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.4248, "assist_rate": 0.3167, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5159, "tackles_won": 0.2105, "tackles": 0.7275, "clearances": 1.3047, "blocks": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.3504, "big_chances_missed": 0.2093, "xgot": 0.3, "offsides": 0.3452, "ball_carries": 14.9059, "total_progression": 73.2067, "progressive_carries": 3.8074, "shots_off_target": 1.4688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1533, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0818, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2165, "after": 0.2741 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1188, "after": 0.1613 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2741, "goal_rate": 0.2383, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7073, "total_shots": 2.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1613, "key_pass": 1.2752, "rating": 6.9407, "minutes": 85.66, "total_pass": 23.0321, "accurate_pass": 18.328, "duels_won": 3.1292, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.327, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8911, "crosses_total": 2.4876, "crosses_accurate": 0.3636, "touches": 38.1788, "possession_lost": 10.816, "dispossessed": 0.5493, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.6459, "total_contest": 1.6678, "won_contest": 0.3776, "ball_recovery": 3.2692, "challenges_lost": 0.5695, "fouls": 0.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.4248, "assist_rate": 0.3167, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5159, "tackles_won": 0.2105, "tackles": 0.7275, "clearances": 1.3047, "blocks": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.3504, "big_chances_missed": 0.2093, "xgot": 0.3, "offsides": 0.3452, "ball_carries": 14.9059, "total_progression": 73.2067, "progressive_carries": 3.8074, "shots_off_target": 1.4688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1533, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0818, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 803, "fifa_rank": 673.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2741, "goal_rate": 0.2383, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7073, "total_shots": 2.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1613, "key_pass": 1.2752, "rating": 6.9407, "minutes": 85.66, "total_pass": 23.0321, "accurate_pass": 18.328, "duels_won": 3.1292, "total_long_balls": 0.9206, "accurate_long_balls": 0.327, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8911, "crosses_total": 2.4876, "crosses_accurate": 0.3636, "touches": 38.1788, "possession_lost": 10.816, "dispossessed": 0.5493, "duels_lost": 3.7386, "aerial_lost": 0.6459, "total_contest": 1.6678, "won_contest": 0.3776, "ball_recovery": 3.2692, "challenges_lost": 0.5695, "fouls": 0.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.4248, "assist_rate": 0.3167, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0579, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2278, "goals": 0.2522, "goal_rate": 0.2522, "shots_on_target": 0.6455, "total_shots": 1.3573, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8225, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7118 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 60000000, "quality_factor": 0.8526, "boost_factor": 1.0579, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2278, "goals": 0.2522, "goal_rate": 0.2522, "shots_on_target": 0.6455, "total_shots": 1.3573, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8225, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7118 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2507, "goals": 0.2775, "goal_rate": 0.2775, "shots_on_target": 0.7104, "total_shots": 1.4937, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9052, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "opponent_faced": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "skill_edge": 0.0864, "height_edge": -0.018, "attacker_skill": 0.8526, "defender_skill": 0.6606, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "market_value": 14100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6191 }, { "player": "Pau Torres", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7022 } ], "xg_override": 0.2507 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3573, "after": 1.4937 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.8225, "after": 0.9052 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7118, "after": 0.7833 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6455, "after": 0.7104 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2522, "after": 0.2775 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2278, "after": 0.2507 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2507, "goal_rate": 0.2775, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7104, "total_shots": 1.4937, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9052, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "opponent_faced": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3174, "goal_rate": 0.2775, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7104, "total_shots": 1.4937, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9052, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "opponent_faced": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2507, "after": 0.3174 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0833, "after": 0.1131 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3174, "goal_rate": 0.2775, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7104, "total_shots": 1.4937, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9052, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "opponent_faced": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1472, "fifa_rank": 1153.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3174, "goal_rate": 0.2775, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7104, "total_shots": 1.4937, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9052, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "opponent_faced": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.272, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.272, "goal_rate": 0.2775, "scorer_weight": 0.3457, "squad_weight_total": 1.5944, "weight_share": 0.2168, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3512, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3512, "runner_up": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3457 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3174, "goal_rate": 0.2775, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7104, "total_shots": 1.4937, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 0.84, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 77.44, "total_pass": 17.6913, "accurate_pass": 12.9868, "duels_won": 2.0633, "total_long_balls": 0.4112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4112, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9889, "crosses_total": 1.1196, "crosses_accurate": 0.4112, "touches": 27.8015, "possession_lost": 8.8765, "dispossessed": 1.5308, "duels_lost": 4.0486, "aerial_lost": 1.1104, "total_contest": 0.8225, "won_contest": 0.8225, "ball_recovery": 1.8804, "challenges_lost": 0.6991, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.2972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6467, "tackles": 0.6467, "clearances": 0.8225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9052, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0579, "ball_carries": 7.3456, "total_progression": 38.6795, "progressive_carries": 1.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aaron 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"step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2559, "goal_rate": 0.2816, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.754, "total_shots": 1.4217, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.6315, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 82.01, "total_pass": 17.8025, "accurate_pass": 12.8994, "duels_won": 4.5626, "total_long_balls": 0.1545, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1545, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9622, "crosses_total": 0.114, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 29.7312, "possession_lost": 9.0822, "dispossessed": 1.343, "duels_lost": 6.1995, "aerial_lost": 2.2944, "total_contest": 1.3823, "won_contest": 0.7339, "ball_recovery": 2.0891, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.7494, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "assist_rate": 0.0889, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.043, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0290, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2202, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0233, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goals": 0.0361, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "total_shots": 0.3188, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.629, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, 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0.4135, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2298 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0295 } ], "others": -0.1493, "total": 0.1747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.333171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.229762 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041451 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037519 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029522 } ], "others_margin": -0.149453 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.70651388168335, "model_output": 6.7065, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1069 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0466, "total": 6.7065, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.106947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034199 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030795 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029648 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.019314 } ], "others_margin": -0.046525 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3503, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0321, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.1783, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 27.7074, "accurate_pass": 25.1004, "duels_won": 0.7934, "total_long_balls": 2.1509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0204, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8432, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0505, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.0776, "possession_lost": 3.4004, "dispossessed": 0.3966, "duels_lost": 1.5271, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3966, "interceptions": 0.3966, "tackles_won": 0.7934, "tackles": 0.7934, "clearances": 1.5936, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.3966, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3966, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4404, "total_progression": 40.8031, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1184 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0173)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3503, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "goals": 0.0315, "goal_rate": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.0589, "total_shots": 0.1752, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 27.7074, "accurate_pass": 25.1004, "duels_won": 0.7934, "total_long_balls": 2.1509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0204, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8432, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0505, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.0776, "possession_lost": 3.4004, "dispossessed": 0.3966, "duels_lost": 1.5271, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3966, "interceptions": 0.3897, "tackles_won": 0.7797, "tackles": 0.7934, "clearances": 1.5936, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.3897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3966, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4404, "total_progression": 40.8031, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1184 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0173, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3327, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7934, "after": 0.7797 }, { "stat": 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980623, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 198, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 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"duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0662, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023957, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "West 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"total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025045, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3655, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 905, "combined_rank_score": 423.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6615, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nick Woltemade", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorge de Frutos", "ranking": 900 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Silva", "ranking": 901 }, { "player_name": "Vedat Muriqi", "ranking": 902 }, { "player_name": "Seung-chan Heo", "ranking": 903 }, { "player_name": 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0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (34 historical appearances) to 23.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.75); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.068, "goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.0718, "shots_on_target": 0.2094, "total_shots": 0.5817, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "key_pass": 0.3601, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.4661, "accurate_pass": 3.406, "duels_won": 1.7175, "total_long_balls": 0.0829, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8086, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0932, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.6389, "possession_lost": 2.1598, "dispossessed": 0.4112, "duels_lost": 1.7729, "aerial_lost": 0.696, "total_contest": 0.6152, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 0.624, "challenges_lost": 0.0704, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.076311 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.039274 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02355 } ], "others_margin": -0.09076 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03899001702666283, "model_output": 0.039, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0033 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.039, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.368643 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.106467 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.079861 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.076004 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.073003 } ], "others_margin": -0.100689 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.38625338673591614, "model_output": 0.3863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2675 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0277 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 0.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506277 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.096274 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079248 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.077539 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075246 } ], "others_margin": 0.086236 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.684631824493408, "model_output": 6.6846, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 6.6846, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073209 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.017334 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013527 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012016 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011135 } ], "others_margin": -0.036118 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0520, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goals": 0.0982, "goal_rate": 0.0982, "shots_on_target": 0.307, "total_shots": 0.7619, "expected_assists": 0.041, "key_pass": 0.4063, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 20.9, "total_pass": 9.1963, "accurate_pass": 6.5852, "duels_won": 1.895, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8697, "crosses_total": 1.3758, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 17.5194, "possession_lost": 7.2912, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 2.9679, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.8875, "won_contest": 0.4771, "ball_recovery": 1.4179, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.2385, "fouls_drawn": 0.2385, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6602, "tackles": 0.6602, "clearances": 0.2806, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1517, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 7.4961, "total_progression": 40.3217, "progressive_carries": 1.7059, "shots_off_target": 0.4549 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.052, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 12.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.61, "projection_minutes": 20.9, "minutes_scale": 0.6033, "appearance_probability": 0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0869, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.75 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0869, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1307, "fifa_rank": 1081.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0869, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "scorer_weight": 0.0509, "squad_weight_total": 1.5944, "weight_share": 0.0319, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 10, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021023 } ], "others_margin": -0.085309 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04057541489601135, "model_output": 0.0406, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 0.0406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.213392 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.094516 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.088059 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.070989 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.055789 } ], "others_margin": -0.112455 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3600826859474182, "model_output": 0.3601, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0267, "total": 0.3601, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446741 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067996 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.055023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053255 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041418 } ], "others_margin": -0.071572 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.661460876464844, "model_output": 6.6615, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 6.6615, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.047547 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012475 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010853 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009624 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.007892 } ], "others_margin": -0.032936 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0689, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.5895, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.3649, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.7265, "assists": 0.1893, "assist_rate": 0.1893, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1504, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1893, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.3773 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0689, "goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.212, "total_shots": 0.5899, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.3649, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2526, "fouls_drawn": 0.728, "assists": 0.1902, "assist_rate": 0.1902, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.3773 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2053, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.5 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2652, "total_shots": 0.738, "expected_assists": 0.0514, "key_pass": 0.4565, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.12, "projection_minutes": 18.48, "minutes_scale": 1.2511, "appearance_probability": 0.752 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2652, "total_shots": 0.738, "expected_assists": 0.0514, "key_pass": 0.4565, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2652, "total_shots": 0.738, "expected_assists": 0.0514, "key_pass": 0.4565, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2652, "total_shots": 0.738, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "key_pass": 0.4565, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0338, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.752 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2652, "total_shots": 0.738, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "key_pass": 0.4565, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0338, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 905, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2652, "total_shots": 0.738, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "key_pass": 0.4565, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3512, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3512, "runner_up": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3457 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2652, "total_shots": 0.738, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "key_pass": 0.4565, "rating": 6.6615, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.368643 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.106467 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.079861 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.076004 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.073003 } ], "others_margin": -0.100689 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.38625338673591614, "model_output": 0.3863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2675 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0277 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 0.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506277 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.096274 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079248 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.077539 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075246 } ], "others_margin": 0.086236 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.684631824493408, "model_output": 6.6846, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 6.6846, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073209 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.017334 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013527 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012016 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011135 } ], "others_margin": -0.036118 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0520, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goals": 0.0982, "goal_rate": 0.0982, "shots_on_target": 0.307, "total_shots": 0.7619, "expected_assists": 0.041, "key_pass": 0.4063, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 20.9, "total_pass": 9.1963, "accurate_pass": 6.5852, "duels_won": 1.895, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8697, "crosses_total": 1.3758, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 17.5194, "possession_lost": 7.2912, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 2.9679, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.8875, "won_contest": 0.4771, "ball_recovery": 1.4179, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.2385, "fouls_drawn": 0.2385, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6602, "tackles": 0.6602, "clearances": 0.2806, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1517, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 7.4961, "total_progression": 40.3217, "progressive_carries": 1.7059, "shots_off_target": 0.4549 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.052, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 12.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.61, "projection_minutes": 20.9, "minutes_scale": 0.6033, "appearance_probability": 0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.1746, xG scale 1.2660, xA scale 1.3576, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0869, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.75 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0869, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1307, "fifa_rank": 1081.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0869, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "scorer_weight": 0.0509, "squad_weight_total": 1.5944, "weight_share": 0.0319, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3512, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3512, "runner_up": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3457 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0457, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1852, "total_shots": 0.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "key_pass": 0.2451, "rating": 6.6846, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.5486, "accurate_pass": 3.9732, "duels_won": 1.1433, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5415, "crosses_total": 0.8301, "crosses_accurate": 0.1439, "touches": 10.5703, "possession_lost": 4.3991, "dispossessed": 0.5612, "duels_lost": 1.7907, "aerial_lost": 0.2385, "total_contest": 1.1388, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 0.8555, "challenges_lost": 0.5192, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.1693, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0869, "offsides": 0.7577, "ball_carries": 4.5228, "total_progression": 24.3281, "progressive_carries": 1.0293, "shots_off_target": 0.2745, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0443, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0247, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0247, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0201, "squad_weight_total": 0.9789, "weight_share": 0.0205, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2016, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2016, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1341, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yoane Wissa" ] } ] } } ] }, "Aladji Bamba": { "player_id": 1868591, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 194, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "projected_assists": 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"progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.53, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2985, "appearance_probability": 0.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2859, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assists": 0.0301, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "total_shots": 0.4135, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, 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0.4135, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, 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"projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2497, "creation_factor": 1.1902 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.487, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1746, "squad_xa_sum": 0.712, "team_expected_assists": 0.9666, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.266, "xa_scale": 1.3576, "opponent_lambda": 1.193, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.71 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2859, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "total_shots": 0.4135, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2497, "creation_factor": 1.1902, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4363, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2859, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "total_shots": 0.4135, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, 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"appearance_weight": 0.71, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3512, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3512, "runner_up": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3457 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2859, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "total_shots": 0.4135, "rating": 6.6389, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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"creation_factor": 1.1902, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "provider_weight": 0.0199, "squad_weight_total": 0.9789, "weight_share": 0.0203, "creation_factor": 1.1902, "appearance_weight": 0.71, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2016, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2016, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1341, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yoane Wissa" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.49, "expected_assists": 0.97, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 453, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } }, "Aston Villa": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Nicolas Jackson": { "player_id": 1085381, "position": "F", 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"importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0414 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.042, "total": 6.8783, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05803 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.053895 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041423 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.014808 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.014757 } ], "others_margin": -0.042128 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0443, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3963, "goals": 0.4106, "goal_rate": 0.4106, "shots_on_target": 1.0936, "total_shots": 2.5898, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 0.8911, "rating": 6.8783, "minutes": 78.05, "total_pass": 14.3839, "accurate_pass": 11.6093, "duels_won": 4.5665, "total_long_balls": 0.5209, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5209, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3809, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9003, "crosses_total": 0.5592, "crosses_accurate": 0.1469, "touches": 30.8922, "possession_lost": 9.134, "dispossessed": 1.203, "duels_lost": 5.7494, "aerial_lost": 1.5809, "total_contest": 4.7761, "won_contest": 2.2535, "ball_recovery": 1.5048, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.6938, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0904, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.18441 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.159705 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.047698 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.038107 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.034233 } ], "others_margin": -0.122174 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.210109829902649, "model_output": 1.2101, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1823 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1321 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0725 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0711 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0389 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 1.2101, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.239591 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.143538 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.070866 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.064939 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033777 } ], "others_margin": 0.033463 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.868272304534912, "model_output": 6.8683, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0186 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 6.8683, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.042164 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034069 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.026737 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.022838 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018579 } ], "others_margin": 0.00256 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0022, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.212, "goals": 0.2012, "goal_rate": 0.2012, "shots_on_target": 0.6022, "total_shots": 1.8582, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assists": 0.0031, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.2665, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 1.256 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0022, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.212, "goals": 0.2012, "goal_rate": 0.2012, "shots_on_target": 0.6022, "total_shots": 1.8582, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assists": 0.0031, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.2665, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 1.256 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1578, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.4483, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assists": 0.0031, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 0.935, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "skill_edge": -0.1139, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.5748, "defender_skill": 0.8279, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "market_value": 33000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8002 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "market_value": 46000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8555 } ], "xg_override": 0.1578 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8582, "after": 1.3833 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.256, "after": 0.935 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6022, "after": 0.4483 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2665, "after": 0.1984 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.212, "after": 0.1578 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2012, "after": 0.1498 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0888, "after": 0.0661 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1578, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4483, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 0.935, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.2865, xG scale 0.9273, xA scale 1.1352, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4483, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1028, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 0.935, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9615, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.193, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2865, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6831, "team_expected_assists": 0.7755, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9273, "xa_scale": 1.1352, "opponent_lambda": 1.487, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1578, "after": 0.1463 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0906, "after": 0.1028 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4483, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1028, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 0.935, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9615, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1418, "fifa_rank": 668.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4483, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1028, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 0.935, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9615, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1361, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "scorer_weight": 0.1407, "squad_weight_total": 1.1267, "weight_share": 0.1249, "finishing_factor": 0.9615, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.35, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.35, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4483, "total_shots": 1.3833, "expected_assists": 0.1028, "key_pass": 1.2128, "rating": 6.8683, "minutes": 76.58, "total_pass": 27.4743, "accurate_pass": 20.8655, "duels_won": 5.9893, "total_long_balls": 1.5381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.428, "crosses_total": 1.0062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0675, "touches": 44.024, "possession_lost": 11.2372, "dispossessed": 1.3805, "duels_lost": 6.3053, "aerial_lost": 1.4532, "total_contest": 1.1471, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 4.627, "challenges_lost": 1.7082, "fouls": 1.2212, "fouls_drawn": 2.1035, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8629, "tackles_won": 1.3527, "tackles": 2.3531, "clearances": 0.327, "blocks": 0.055, "big_chances_created": 0.1438, "big_chances_missed": 0.1984, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0981, "ball_carries": 9.6095, "total_progression": 37.7523, "progressive_carries": 1.4468, "shots_off_target": 0.935, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "opponent_faced": "Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0977, "finishing_factor": 0.9615, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "provider_weight": 0.0822, "squad_weight_total": 0.814, "weight_share": 0.101, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Johan Manzambi", "weight": 0.1816, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1816, "runner_up": "John McGinn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1376, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Johan Manzambi": { "player_id": 1518931, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 182, "market_value": 71000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1453, "assist_rate": 0.224, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2346, "goal_rate": 0.1967, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 6.8411, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 8.2939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3732, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0149, 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], "others_margin": 0.108925 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.6548423767089844, "model_output": 2.6548, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.8645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2115 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1049 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0838 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0735 } ], "others": 0.3211, "total": 2.6548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.864516 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.211482 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.104885 }, { 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"Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0677, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025029, "match_date": "2026-04-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15408501, "match_date": "2026-03-16", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wolverhampton", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.5121, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2402, "combined_rank_score": 873.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 618.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7714, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 1128.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7988, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "João Gomes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sardor Rakhmanov", "ranking": 2397 }, { "player_name": "Giannis Konstantelias", "ranking": 2398 }, { "player_name": "Brayan Véjar", "ranking": 2399 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Begić", "ranking": 2400 }, { "player_name": "Mark Flekken", "ranking": 2401 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mahamadou Dembélé", "ranking": 2403 }, { "player_name": "Je-ho Lee", "ranking": 2404 }, { "player_name": "Juan Camilo Zapata", "ranking": 2405 }, { "player_name": "John Kennedy", "ranking": 2406 }, { "player_name": "Amir Saidov", "ranking": 2407 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", 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"expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0088, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 39.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6499, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "assists": 0.0667, "assist_rate": 0.0667, "expected_goals": 0.042, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, 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"expectedGoals", "margin": -0.195587 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.122068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.097035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094868 } ], "others_margin": -0.16783 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17176444828510284, "model_output": 0.1718, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0684 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.1718, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.235739 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.195932 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.16889 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.120971 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118649 } ], "others_margin": -0.03706 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5599927306175232, "model_output": 0.56, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.265 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1218 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0526 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0417 } ], "others": -0.1533, "total": 0.56, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265001 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052602 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044725 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041746 } ], "others_margin": -0.153284 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.798844814300537, "model_output": 6.7988, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0491, "total": 6.7988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033334 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030129 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026852 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018615 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010292 } ], "others_margin": -0.04895 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6556, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "assists": 0.0673, "assist_rate": 0.0673, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0496, "shots_on_target": 0.1733, "total_shots": 0.5649, "rating": 6.7988, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 36.5581, "accurate_pass": 31.7909, "duels_won": 6.9449, "total_long_balls": 2.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3596, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7715, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0195, "crosses_total": 0.502, "crosses_accurate": 0.1767, "touches": 54.5158, "possession_lost": 8.9924, "dispossessed": 2.0279, "duels_lost": 6.6262, "aerial_won": 0.5886, "aerial_lost": 0.7072, "interceptions": 0.9882, "tackles_won": 2.1057, "tackles": 3.4691, "clearances": 1.2736, "total_contest": 1.8505, "won_contest": 1.1393, "challenges_lost": 1.4162, "fouls": 1.8698, "fouls_drawn": 1.7477, "blocks": 0.2041, "big_chances_created": 0.0438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0564, "ball_carries": 15.8071, "total_progression": 42.7433, "progressive_carries": 1.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.3916 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6556, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "assists": 0.0672, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.173, "total_shots": 0.5638, "rating": 6.7988, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 36.5581, "accurate_pass": 31.7909, "duels_won": 6.9449, "total_long_balls": 2.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 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"params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lewis Miley", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.954, "skill_edge": 0.0167, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.7926, "defender_skill": 0.7554, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.7554 } ], "xg_override": 0.0404 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5886, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5646, "after": 0.5386 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3916, "after": 0.3736 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.173, "after": 0.165 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6556, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.165, "total_shots": 0.5386, "rating": 6.7988, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 36.5581, "accurate_pass": 31.7909, "duels_won": 6.9449, "total_long_balls": 2.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3596, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7715, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0195, "crosses_total": 0.501, "crosses_accurate": 0.1767, "touches": 54.5158, "possession_lost": 8.9924, "dispossessed": 2.0279, "duels_lost": 6.6262, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7072, "interceptions": 0.9862, "tackles_won": 2.1108, "tackles": 3.4691, "clearances": 1.2736, "total_contest": 1.8505, "won_contest": 1.1393, "challenges_lost": 1.4162, "fouls": 1.8707, "fouls_drawn": 1.7488, "blocks": 0.2041, 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"stats": { "key_pass": 0.6556, "expected_assists": 0.0552, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.165, "total_shots": 0.5386, "rating": 6.7988, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 36.5581, "accurate_pass": 31.7909, "duels_won": 6.9449, "total_long_balls": 2.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3596, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7715, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0195, "crosses_total": 0.501, "crosses_accurate": 0.1767, "touches": 54.5158, "possession_lost": 8.9924, "dispossessed": 2.0279, "duels_lost": 6.6262, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7072, "interceptions": 0.9862, "tackles_won": 2.1108, "tackles": 3.4691, "clearances": 1.2736, "total_contest": 1.8505, "won_contest": 1.1393, "challenges_lost": 1.4162, "fouls": 1.8707, "fouls_drawn": 1.7488, "blocks": 0.2041, "big_chances_created": 0.0438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0499, 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"importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1216 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0038, "total": 0.3537, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.121594 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047933 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024445 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009849 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009136 } ], "others_margin": -0.003751 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.634726047515869, "model_output": 6.6347, "scale": 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"source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2021, "tackles": 1.9705, "tackles_won": 1.2423, "clearances": 2.4086, "aerial_won": 0.7395, "total_shots": 0.3547, "rating": 6.6347, "minutes": 80.27, "total_pass": 29.265, "accurate_pass": 23.3387, "duels_won": 3.2921, "total_long_balls": 2.2814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6651, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7979, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1414, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4671, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1972, "crosses_total": 1.2883, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 52.1134, "possession_lost": 11.8476, "dispossessed": 0.6608, "duels_lost": 2.9221, "aerial_lost": 0.8744, "total_contest": 1.0417, "won_contest": 0.5311, "ball_recovery": 2.659, "challenges_lost": 0.4113, "fouls": 0.5661, "fouls_drawn": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.3327, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8342, "tackles": 0.8621, "tackles_won": 0.5665, "clearances": 5.5756, "aerial_won": 1.7021, "total_shots": 0.3209, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 86.39, "total_pass": 52.9189, "accurate_pass": 49.3722, "duels_won": 1.3823, "total_long_balls": 2.7173, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.1482, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9811, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.224, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.849, "possession_lost": 4.1832, "dispossessed": 0.1284, "duels_lost": 1.5634, "aerial_lost": 1.1593, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5411, "challenges_lost": 0.0953, "fouls": 0.1806, "fouls_drawn": 0.0435, "blocks": 0.3699, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 894, "combined_rank_score": 419.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 502.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7092, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Victor Stina", "ranking": 889 }, { "player_name": "Balde", "ranking": 890 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 }, { 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"possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0574 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0381, "total": 0.4227, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057424 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038217 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01472 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010651 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007533 } ], "others_margin": -0.038134 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.709179878234863, "model_output": 6.7092, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0395, "total": 6.7092, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012277 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010958 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.009802 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009752 } ], "others_margin": -0.039557 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.629)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8342, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2518, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4244, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5781, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3666, "fouls_drawn": 1.227, "blocks": 0.5664, "goals": 0.0065, "goal_rate": 0.0065, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.0763, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19800000, "quality_factor": 0.6291, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goals": 0.0064, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9592, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.5781, "after": 2.5545 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2518, "after": 1.2634 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.227, "after": 1.2343 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3666, "after": 1.3726 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goals": 0.0064, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goals": 0.0064, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576, "opponent_faced": "Yoane Wissa", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576, "opponent_faced": "Yoane Wissa", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.2865, xG scale 0.9273, xA scale 1.1352, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576, "opponent_faced": "Yoane Wissa", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2479 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.193, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2865, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6831, "team_expected_assists": 0.7755, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9273, "xa_scale": 1.1352, "opponent_lambda": 1.487, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0432, "after": 0.049 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576, "opponent_faced": "Yoane Wissa", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2479, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 894, "fifa_rank": 502.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576, "opponent_faced": "Yoane Wissa", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0252, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2479, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "scorer_weight": 0.0204, "squad_weight_total": 1.1267, "weight_share": 0.0181, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.35, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.35, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8312, "tackles": 2.1705, "tackles_won": 1.2634, "clearances": 2.3908, "aerial_won": 0.6432, "total_shots": 0.4253, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.33, "total_pass": 40.6442, "accurate_pass": 35.2087, "duels_won": 4.4392, "total_long_balls": 3.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2161, "total_own_half_passes": 18.493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3603, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8484, "crosses_total": 2.5545, "crosses_accurate": 0.4009, "touches": 62.598, "possession_lost": 12.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.9669, "aerial_lost": 0.9296, "total_contest": 0.4226, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.8925, "challenges_lost": 1.0169, "fouls": 1.3726, "fouls_drawn": 1.2343, "blocks": 0.5664, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.0756, "big_chances_created": 0.0283, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 16.5265, "total_progression": 28.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.9468, "key_pass": 0.6202, "shots_off_target": 0.3481, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576, "opponent_faced": "Yoane Wissa", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0252, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0478, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2479, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0478, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "provider_weight": 0.0611, "squad_weight_total": 0.814, "weight_share": 0.0751, "creation_factor": 1.2479, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Johan Manzambi", "weight": 0.1816, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1816, "runner_up": "John McGinn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1376, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Zion Suzuki": { "player_id": 905351, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 189, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kodai Sano", "ranking": 3419 }, { "player_name": "Torbjørn Heggem", "ranking": 3420 }, { "player_name": "Alphonse Aréola", "ranking": 3421 }, { "player_name": "Yarek", "ranking": 3422 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Hofmann", "ranking": 3423 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Esmir Bajraktarević", "ranking": 3425 }, { "player_name": "Ilia Gruev", "ranking": 3426 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Hickey", "ranking": 3427 }, { "player_name": "Joaquin Seys", "ranking": 3428 }, { "player_name": "Julián Araujo", "ranking": 3429 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.573, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1435 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.122 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1314 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0488 } ], "others": 0.1523, "total": 1.4679, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.152711 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.113655 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.109478 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.037813 } ], "others_margin": 0.109619 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.872135162353516, "model_output": 6.8721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.018 } ], "others": 0.0483, "total": 6.8721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045588 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.036196 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.027219 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020177 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017992 } ], "others_margin": 0.048384 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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"prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (8 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7128, "goals_prevented": 0.0014, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.6728, "accurate_pass": 25.0234, "total_long_balls": 13.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8243, "touches": 43.4928, "clearances": 1.6207, "ball_recovery": 6.7776, "high_claims": 1.3953, "punches": 0.8333, "aerial_won": 0.1076, "sweeper_actions": 1.0335, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0335, "saves_inside_box": 1.9513, "possession_lost": 8.947, "duels_won": 0.2153, "duels_lost": 0.0778, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0778, "fouls_drawn": 0.1076, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0294, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9965 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-03", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 4.8243, "save_contribution": 2.738, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9213, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 21.9965, "passValueNormalized": 0.0545, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 24.0294 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7128217220306396, "model_output": 2.7128, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.229 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0122, "total": 2.7128, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081049 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.010201 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008771 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.006246 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.003498 } ], "others_margin": 0.004453 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.001436502207070589, "model_output": 0.0014, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0184, "total": 0.0014, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.014337 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.012011 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011994 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.011047 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009567 } ], "others_margin": 0.018401 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.036828994750977, "model_output": 7.0368, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0011, "total": 7.0368, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017988 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.013995 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013623 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010696 } ], "others_margin": -0.001004 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6917, "goals_prevented": 0.0014, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0772, "fouls_drawn": 0.1068, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6657, "goals_prevented": 0.0014, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0759, "fouls_drawn": 0.105, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3778, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.6917, "after": 2.6657 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 34.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3444, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 34.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1292, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.3444, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.3444, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3444, "goals_prevented": 0.0002, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3175, "fifa_rank": 1406.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Ian Maatsen": { "player_id": 976263, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 178, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6566, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1784, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston 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"rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1375 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0483 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0523, "total": 0.3337, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.235471 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.13751 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.048266 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.040372 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.017416 } ], "others_margin": -0.052337 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656635284423828, "model_output": 6.6566, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.414, "tackles": 0.8786, "tackles_won": 0.4586, "clearances": 0.7482, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "total_shots": 0.3367, "rating": 6.6566, "minutes": 16.07, "total_pass": 6.0852, "accurate_pass": 5.1379, "duels_won": 1.3588, "total_long_balls": 0.3609, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0894, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5408, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0685, "crosses_total": 0.7408, "crosses_accurate": 0.1303, "touches": 12.5218, "possession_lost": 2.8569, "dispossessed": 0.4222, "duels_lost": 1.5534, "aerial_lost": 0.2255, "total_contest": 0.7785, "won_contest": 0.3185, "ball_recovery": 0.7092, "challenges_lost": 0.065, "fouls": 0.3808, "fouls_drawn": 0.4576, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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"xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.623, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0081, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (30 historical appearances) to 11.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4777, "tackles": 0.5816, "tackles_won": 0.2918, "clearances": 1.0039, "aerial_won": 0.3902, "total_shots": 0.1693, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 14.9828, "accurate_pass": 12.7619, "duels_won": 0.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.9463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4053, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0387, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3707, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7233, "crosses_total": 1.0255, "crosses_accurate": 0.2491, "touches": 22.2232, "possession_lost": 3.9323, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9424, "aerial_lost": 0.2153, "total_contest": 0.1322, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.0661, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1266, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9913, "total_progression": 3.7337, "progressive_carries": 0.4194, "key_pass": 0.0915, "shots_off_target": 0.1693 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.241, "aerialWon": 0.7362, "totalClearance_p90": 4.3036, "totalTackle": 0.6201, "defensive_actions": 2.0112 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.47773611545562744, "model_output": 0.4777, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4929 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0149, "total": 0.4777, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.849848 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.128996 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.041104 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.029793 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.02919 } ], "others_margin": 0.031874 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5815922617912292, "model_output": 0.5816, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7858 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0171 } ], "others": -0.0457, "total": 0.5816, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.83167 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.06175 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.036973 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032363 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.02768 } ], "others_margin": -0.075968 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.29181626439094543, "model_output": 0.2918, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5102 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0027, "total": 0.2918, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.909598 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.073615 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.03502 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032888 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.032384 } ], "others_margin": 0.009502 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.003930926322937, "model_output": 1.0039, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1088 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0682 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0427 } ], "others": -0.0844, "total": 1.0039, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.952728 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05854 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.056157 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.042704 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.038477 } ], "others_margin": -0.080826 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.39021486043930054, "model_output": 0.3902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7848 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1507 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.019 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 0.3902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.843461 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.293396 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.047994 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.046431 } ], "others_margin": -0.071406 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16933892667293549, "model_output": 0.1693, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2054 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0068, "total": 0.1693, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205436 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077921 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019086 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.011883 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.007859 } ], "others_margin": -0.006742 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.659358978271484, "model_output": 6.6594, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0505, "total": 6.6594, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020217 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018568 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012317 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008272 } ], "others_margin": -0.050542 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4816, "tackles": 0.5863, "tackles_won": 0.2942, "clearances": 1.0121, "aerial_won": 0.3934, "total_shots": 0.1707, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0338, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1707 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0006)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4813, "tackles": 0.5863, "tackles_won": 0.294, "clearances": 1.0121, "aerial_won": 0.3934, "total_shots": 0.1706, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0332, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1707 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0006, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2454, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 11.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 11.51, "projection_minutes": 22.09, "minutes_scale": 0.5211, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3181 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1945 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": -0.1053, "total": 0.2923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.318107 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.19448 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038015 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024944 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02238 } ], "others_margin": -0.10532 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.735525131225586, "model_output": 6.7355, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0958 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 6.7355, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.095829 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027771 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022216 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021223 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012316 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0384, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.3256, "total_shots": 0.88, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.3293, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 6.1457, "accurate_pass": 5.1588, "duels_won": 1.5026, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1718, "crosses_total": 0.6953, "crosses_accurate": 0.2917, "touches": 12.1541, "possession_lost": 4.2747, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6953, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6953, "clearances": 0.4036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.0467, "total_progression": 25.2553, "progressive_carries": 1.3906, "shots_off_target": 0.5544 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0384, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1522, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 21.59, "minutes_scale": 1.2215, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1522, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1522, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.2865, xG scale 0.9273, xA scale 1.1352, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.193, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2865, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6831, "team_expected_assists": 0.7755, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9273, "xa_scale": 1.1352, "opponent_lambda": 1.487, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0879, "after": 0.0496 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0585, "after": 0.0404 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0476, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "scorer_weight": 0.0466, "squad_weight_total": 1.1267, "weight_share": 0.0414, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.35, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.35, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069922 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022384 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016565 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011348 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010996 } ], "others_margin": -0.001929 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.077, "shots_on_target": 0.1792, "total_shots": 0.4812, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7276, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0899, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.182, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2265, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.302 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.179, "total_shots": 0.4806, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0898, "fouls_drawn": 0.3676, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.302 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2616, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.5 to 16.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.77, "projection_minutes": 23.54, "minutes_scale": 0.7124, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.2865, xG scale 0.9273, xA scale 1.1352, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.193, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2865, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6831, "team_expected_assists": 0.7755, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9273, "xa_scale": 1.1352, "opponent_lambda": 1.487, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0358, "after": 0.0245 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2716, "fifa_rank": 1438.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "scorer_weight": 0.0299, "squad_weight_total": 1.1267, "weight_share": 0.0266, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.35, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.35, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0193, "squad_weight_total": 0.814, "weight_share": 0.0237, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Johan Manzambi", "weight": 0.1816, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1816, "runner_up": "John McGinn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1376, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Alejandro Garnacho": { "player_id": 1135873, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 180, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1783, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1609, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023998, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024017, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023990, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1526, "expected_assists": 0.114, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4648, "expected_assists": 0.8643, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2716, "combined_rank_score": 941.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1438.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.667, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Garnacho", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matteo Vitaioli", "ranking": 2711 }, { "player_name": "Georgi Milanov", "ranking": 2712 }, { "player_name": "Zakhar Volkov", "ranking": 2713 }, { "player_name": "Valerii Bondar", "ranking": 2714 }, { "player_name": "Sam Byram", "ranking": 2715 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ferhat Sağlam", "ranking": 2717 }, { "player_name": "Yong-hwan Kim", "ranking": 2718 }, { "player_name": "Naoaki Senaga", "ranking": 2719 }, { "player_name": "Asilbek Kayumov", "ranking": 2720 }, { "player_name": "Renzo Saravia", "ranking": 2721 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", 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"data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.739, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0085, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (27 historical appearances) to 16.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0499, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.1776, "total_shots": 0.4772, "expected_assists": 0.04, "key_pass": 0.3895, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 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"rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9646, "expectedGoals": 0.0728, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.4888, "accuratePass": 12.349, "totalShots": 0.7695 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.049910541623830795, "model_output": 0.0499, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0236, "total": 0.0499, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593032 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.182283 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.111501 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.051137 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.049678 } ], "others_margin": -0.387976 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07639031112194061, "model_output": 0.0764, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2298 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.047, "total": 0.1776, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557525 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102575 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.084577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.079262 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.048654 } ], "others_margin": -0.234819 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47716468572616577, "model_output": 0.4772, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 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match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.04, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.310341 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.07038 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.056713 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045954 } ], "others_margin": 0.064653 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.38953670859336853, "model_output": 0.3895, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.231 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 0.3895, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.420062 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.068886 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06053 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029919 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025965 } ], "others_margin": -0.001811 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666986465454102, "model_output": 6.667, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0699 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.667, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069922 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022384 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016565 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011348 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010996 } ], "others_margin": -0.001929 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.077, "shots_on_target": 0.1792, "total_shots": 0.4812, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7276, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0899, "fouls_drawn": 0.3681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.182, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2265, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.302 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.179, "total_shots": 0.4806, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 10.4007, "accurate_pass": 8.9604, "duels_won": 1.0096, "total_long_balls": 0.2155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2155, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2627, "crosses_total": 0.7266, "crosses_accurate": 0.0339, "touches": 15.7256, "possession_lost": 3.9043, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.6302, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.435, "ball_recovery": 0.966, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.0898, "fouls_drawn": 0.3676, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "tackles": 0.182, "clearances": 0.1713, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 5.6777, "total_progression": 19.816, "progressive_carries": 0.8231, "shots_off_target": 0.302 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2616, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.5 to 16.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.77, "projection_minutes": 23.54, "minutes_scale": 0.7124, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.2865, xG scale 0.9273, xA scale 1.1352, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.193, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2865, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6831, "team_expected_assists": 0.7755, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9273, "xa_scale": 1.1352, "opponent_lambda": 1.487, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0358, "after": 0.0245 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2716, "fifa_rank": 1438.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "scorer_weight": 0.0299, "squad_weight_total": 1.1267, "weight_share": 0.0266, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.35, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.35, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3427, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.2798, "rating": 6.667, "minutes": 16.77, "total_pass": 7.4095, "accurate_pass": 6.3834, "duels_won": 0.7192, "total_long_balls": 0.1535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4616, "crosses_total": 0.5176, "crosses_accurate": 0.0242, "touches": 11.203, "possession_lost": 2.7814, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 1.1614, "aerial_lost": 0.17, "total_contest": 0.6404, "won_contest": 0.3099, "ball_recovery": 0.6882, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 0.064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2619, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1295, "tackles": 0.1297, "clearances": 0.122, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.228, "ball_carries": 4.0448, "total_progression": 14.117, "progressive_carries": 0.5864, "shots_off_target": 0.2151, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0241, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "finishing_factor": 1.2214, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0193, "squad_weight_total": 0.814, "weight_share": 0.0237, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Johan Manzambi", "weight": 0.1816, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1816, "runner_up": "John McGinn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1376, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ] } ] } } ] }, "Matteo Ruggeri": { "player_id": 965011, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, 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"source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4816, "tackles": 0.5863, "tackles_won": 0.2942, "clearances": 1.0121, "aerial_won": 0.3934, "total_shots": 0.1707, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0338, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1707 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0006)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4813, "tackles": 0.5863, "tackles_won": 0.294, "clearances": 1.0121, "aerial_won": 0.3934, "total_shots": 0.1706, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0332, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0155, "total_progression": 3.7639, "progressive_carries": 0.4228, "key_pass": 0.0922, "shots_off_target": 0.1707 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0006, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2454, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 11.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 11.51, "projection_minutes": 22.09, "minutes_scale": 0.5211, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.2865, xG scale 0.9273, xA scale 1.1352, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.193, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2865, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6831, "team_expected_assists": 0.7755, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9273, "xa_scale": 1.1352, "opponent_lambda": 1.487, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2325, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.1267, "weight_share": 0.0009, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.35, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.35, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2508, "tackles": 0.3055, "tackles_won": 0.1532, "clearances": 0.5274, "aerial_won": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.0889, "rating": 6.6594, "minutes": 11.51, "total_pass": 7.87, "accurate_pass": 6.7035, "duels_won": 0.2971, "total_long_balls": 0.4971, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2129, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5821, "crosses_total": 0.5383, "crosses_accurate": 0.1308, "touches": 11.6732, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.495, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.0695, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9138, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5712, "total_progression": 1.9612, "progressive_carries": 0.2203, "key_pass": 0.048, "shots_off_target": 0.0889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0115, "finishing_factor": 1.0, 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substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0384, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.3256, "total_shots": 0.88, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 0.3293, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 6.1457, "accurate_pass": 5.1588, "duels_won": 1.5026, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1718, "crosses_total": 0.6953, "crosses_accurate": 0.2917, "touches": 12.1541, "possession_lost": 4.2747, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6953, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6953, "clearances": 0.4036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.0467, "total_progression": 25.2553, "progressive_carries": 1.3906, "shots_off_target": 0.5544 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0384, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1522, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 21.59, "minutes_scale": 1.2215, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1522, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1522, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.2865, xG scale 0.9273, xA scale 1.1352, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.193, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2865, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6831, "team_expected_assists": 0.7755, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9273, "xa_scale": 1.1352, "opponent_lambda": 1.487, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0879, "after": 0.0496 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0585, "after": 0.0404 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3297, "fifa_rank": 1817.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0476, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "scorer_weight": 0.0466, "squad_weight_total": 1.1267, "weight_share": 0.0414, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.35, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.35, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3977, "total_shots": 1.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "key_pass": 0.4022, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.5068, "accurate_pass": 6.3013, "duels_won": 1.8354, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0957, "crosses_total": 0.8493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3563, "touches": 14.8459, "possession_lost": 5.2214, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 3.3749, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3563, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8493, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.7754, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.8493, "clearances": 0.493, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.1644, "total_progression": 30.8487, "progressive_carries": 1.6986, "shots_off_target": 0.6772, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0476, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0391, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 0.814, "weight_share": 0.0397, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Johan Manzambi", "weight": 0.1816, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1816, "runner_up": "John McGinn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1376, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.19, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 410, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yoane Wissa", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Matty Cash" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.629, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.2559, "xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "role": "RB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoane Wissa (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Matty Cash in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.256 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Victor Lindelöf" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "xg_contribution": 0.2165, "xg_multiplier": 1.1533, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.416 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (RW) is slightly favored against Victor Lindelöf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.216 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 60000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.853, "defenders": [ "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "Pau Torres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "xg_contribution": 0.2507, "xg_multiplier": 1.1005, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 }, { "player": "Pau Torres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matías Fernández-Pardo (ST) is slightly favored against Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Pau Torres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€60M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.251 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Joelinton", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "João Gomes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "xg_contribution": 0.0723, "xg_multiplier": 0.9808, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Gomes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.593 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joelinton (CDM) is evenly matched against João Gomes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Miley", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "João Gomes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.481, "xg_contribution": 0.0369, "xg_multiplier": 1.046, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Gomes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Miley (CM) is evenly matched against João Gomes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nico González", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "João Gomes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.517, "xg_contribution": 0.0362, "xg_multiplier": 1.0985, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Gomes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.483 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico González (CM) is slightly favored against João Gomes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "Lewis Hall" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.831, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.49, "xg_contribution": 0.253, "xg_multiplier": 1.0149, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Hall", "role": "RB", "market_value": 52000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (LW) is evenly matched against Lewis Hall in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€71M vs €52M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.253 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3716, "xg_multiplier": 0.9376, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.372 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Emiliano Buendía", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1578, "xg_multiplier": 0.7444, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emiliano Buendía (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "John McGinn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1767, "xg_multiplier": 0.7296, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "John McGinn (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.177 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "João Gomes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "xg_contribution": 0.0404, "xg_multiplier": 0.954, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.631 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Gomes (CDM) is evenly matched against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.0499, "xg_multiplier": 1.037, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (CDM) is evenly matched against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €32M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.737, "away_midfield_power": 0.817, "home_creative_power": 0.626, "away_creative_power": 0.85, "home_defensive_power": 0.626, "away_defensive_power": 0.785, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.474, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lewis Miley", "Nico González", "Joelinton" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Johan Manzambi", "João Gomes", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Nico González vs Johan Manzambi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.986, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.487, "away_lambda": 1.193, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Matty Cash" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Victor Lindelöf" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matías Fernández-Pardo": { "opponents": [ "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "Pau Torres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Joelinton": { "opponents": [ "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lewis Miley": { "opponents": [ "João Gomes", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico González": { "opponents": [ "João Gomes", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Emiliano Buendía", "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Emiliano Buendía", "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lukáš Horníček": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Emiliano Buendía" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Amar Dedić": { "opponents": [ "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Matty Cash": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aaron Wan-Bissaka": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Torres": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Gomes": { "opponents": [ "Joelinton", "Lewis Miley", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Hall", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolas Jackson": { "opponents": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Emiliano Buendía": { "opponents": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "John McGinn": { "opponents": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Nico González vs Johan Manzambi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1647, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.156, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9621, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8859, "home_midfield_factor": 0.986, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.758, "away_avg_quality": 0.6677, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0903, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.2931, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1183, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0034, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1227, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0675, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0393, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8685, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0139 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.986, "result": 0.9997 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.0297 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1841 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0525, "result": 1.2463 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.1127 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9621, "result": 1.0705 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1647, "result": 1.2352 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2352, "result": 1.2352, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1227, "factor": 1.0675, "pre": 1.2352, "result": 1.3185 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3185 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1471, "result": 1.4661 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.4661 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4661, "result": 1.466, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.466, "result": 1.487, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.487 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.487 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.487, "result": 1.487, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.487 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0494, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1495 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.016, "result": 1.1679 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 1.1563 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1563 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0098, "result": 1.1676 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9123, "result": 1.0652 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8859, "result": 0.9437 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.156, "result": 1.0997 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0997, "result": 1.0997, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1227, "factor": 0.9607, "pre": 1.0997, "result": 1.0565 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0565 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1532, "result": 1.2102 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.2102 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2102, "result": 1.21, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.21, "result": 1.1927, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.193 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.193 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.193, "result": 1.193, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.193 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1471, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1532, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.487, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.193, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4661, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2102, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.487, "final_away_lambda": 1.193 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0525, "attack_index": 1.043, "defense_concede_index": 1.081, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.54, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.59, "team_ppg": 1.34, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0098, "attack_index": 0.893, "defense_concede_index": 1.156, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.32, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.71, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.34 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Newcastle vs Aston Villa. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.466, Away 1.210). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.487, Away 1.193 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.487, "away_lambda": 1.193, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.466, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.21 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:32:37Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }