{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Barcelona", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-3", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 3, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0688, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0212, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-3", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0688, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1111, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0688 }, { "score": "1-4", "probability": 0.0656 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0541 }, { "score": "2-3", "probability": 0.0514 }, { "score": "1-5", "probability": 0.0501 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0051, "0-1": 0.0189, "0-2": 0.0363, "0-3": 0.0461, "0-4": 0.044, "0-5": 0.0335, "0-6": 0.0213, "0-7": 0.0116, "0-8": 0.0055, "0-9": 0.0023, "1-0": 0.0073, "1-1": 0.0285, "1-2": 0.0541, "1-3": 0.0688, "1-4": 0.0656, "1-5": 0.0501, "1-6": 0.0318, "1-7": 0.0174, "1-8": 0.0083, "1-9": 0.0035, "2-0": 0.0056, "2-1": 0.0212, "2-2": 0.0404, "2-3": 0.0514, "2-4": 0.049, "2-5": 0.0374, "2-6": 0.0238, "2-7": 0.013, "2-8": 0.0062, "2-9": 0.0026, "3-0": 0.0028, "3-1": 0.0105, "3-2": 0.0201, "3-3": 0.0256, "3-4": 0.0244, "3-5": 0.0186, "3-6": 0.0118, "3-7": 0.0064, "3-8": 0.0031, "3-9": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.001, "4-1": 0.0039, "4-2": 0.0075, "4-3": 0.0095, "4-4": 0.0091, "4-5": 0.0069, "4-6": 0.0044, "4-7": 0.0024, "4-8": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0022, "5-3": 0.0028, "5-4": 0.0027, "5-5": 0.0021, "5-6": 0.0013, "5-7": 0.0007, "6-2": 0.0006, "6-3": 0.0007, "6-4": 0.0007, "6-5": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1024, "draw": 0.1111, "away_win": 0.7865 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8984, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1016, "btts_yes": 0.7582, "btts_no": 0.2418, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0222, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2247 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 6.98, "ATR": 7.09, "GK": 7.37 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.07, "MCR": 7.31, "ATR": 7.38, "GK": 7.06 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Barcelona. Most likely scoreline: 1-3. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Real Betis 0W-2D-8L vs Barcelona over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Karim Adeyemi, Lamine Yamal (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Facundo Bernal vs Pedri). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 1.98. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.83, "home_lambda": 1.493, "away_lambda": 3.815, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 8, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.95, "away_multiplier": 1.05 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-3", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0688, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1024, "draw": 0.1111, "away_win": 0.7865 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7865, "fair_spread": -2.322, "fair_total": 5.308, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.493, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 3.815, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8984, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7582, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0222, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2247, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.3158, "probability": 0.2708, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 1.2211, "probability": 0.7051, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2583, "probability": 0.2276, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.5227, "probability": 0.4071, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.308, "expected_total_shots": 35, "expected_total_passes": 1129, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.9, "possession_home_pct": 45.9, "possession_away_pct": 54.1, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7865, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.32 goals and fair total 5.31.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Betis must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Lamine Yamal against Marc Bartra in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Abdessamad Ezzalzouli; bench watchlist: Troy Parrott, Sergi Altimira, Nelson Deossa.", "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Karim Adeyemi, Lamine Yamal (2); bench watchlist: Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo.", "Assist usage should flow through Isco, Pedri, Lamine Yamal; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 2.65 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Betis is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Real Betis wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Betis": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Cucho Hernández": { "player_id": 887055, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 16500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2915, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3828, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2529, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0841, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1141, "expected_assists": 0.1814, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3739, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.7169, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1215, "expected_assists": 0.1305, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1823, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2401, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1878, "combined_rank_score": 727.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 493.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8625, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 961.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8253, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cucho Hernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Calebe Gonçalves", "ranking": 1873 }, { "player_name": "Jack Hinshelwood", "ranking": 1874 }, { "player_name": "David Retamal", "ranking": 1875 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Evanilson", "ranking": 1879 }, { "player_name": "Vanja Milinković-Savić", "ranking": 1880 }, { "player_name": "Abdülkerim Bardakcı", "ranking": 1881 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Arambarri", "ranking": 1882 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hyeon-Jun", "ranking": 1883 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.003, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3114, "goals": 0.3282, "goal_rate": 0.3282, "shots_on_target": 0.8445, "total_shots": 2.3052, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.9398, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1274, "accurate_pass": 15.145, "duels_won": 3.9234, "total_long_balls": 1.442, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1702, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2935, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.294, "crosses_total": 0.8347, "crosses_accurate": 0.2811, "touches": 36.1903, "possession_lost": 11.349, "dispossessed": 2.1103, "duels_lost": 5.98, "aerial_lost": 2.1361, "total_contest": 1.2847, "won_contest": 0.518, "ball_recovery": 2.6128, "challenges_lost": 0.3995, "fouls": 0.5844, "fouls_drawn": 1.2288, "assists": 0.228, "assist_rate": 0.228, "interceptions": 0.2006, "tackles_won": 0.3853, "tackles": 0.621, "clearances": 0.5825, "blocks": 0.1342, "big_chances_created": 0.4091, "big_chances_missed": 0.5096, "xgot": 0.4089, "offsides": 0.2611, "ball_carries": 10.4589, "total_progression": 14.3882, "progressive_carries": 0.8765, "shots_off_target": 1.4607 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 13.8758, "expectedGoals": 0.3325, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 10.0232, "accuratePass": 14.4117, "totalShots": 2.4128 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3114098906517029, "model_output": 0.3114, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0095, "total": 0.3114, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.261124 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.133926 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.029909 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.028953 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028196 } ], "others_margin": 0.03107 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.328187495470047, "model_output": 0.3282, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.3282, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.265743 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.153257 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.080264 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.060088 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.039699 } ], "others_margin": -0.000256 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.844540536403656, "model_output": 0.8445, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0001, "total": 0.8445, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.295226 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.079908 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.065314 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.026196 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.015212 } ], "others_margin": 0.000154 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.3052284717559814, "model_output": 2.3052, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5366 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2169 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0274 } ], "others": 0.066, "total": 2.3052, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.536595 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.216869 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.048185 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.036347 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.027445 } ], "others_margin": 0.065948 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07196588069200516, "model_output": 0.072, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.072, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.180101 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.149997 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.058311 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.047587 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039911 } ], "others_margin": -0.070343 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9397821426391602, "model_output": 0.9398, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1499 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 0.9398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.201037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.104014 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070902 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.028391 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014878 } ], "others_margin": -0.029084 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825254440307617, "model_output": 6.8253, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 6.8253, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056419 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02354 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.021846 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.015299 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.014545 } ], "others_margin": 0.00428 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3123, "goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3292, "shots_on_target": 0.8471, "total_shots": 2.3122, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assists": 0.2287, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.5111, "xgot": 0.4101, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.4651 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3123, "goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3292, "shots_on_target": 0.8471, "total_shots": 2.3122, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assists": 0.2287, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.5111, "xgot": 0.4101, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.4651 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2398, "goals": 0.2528, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "shots_on_target": 0.6504, "total_shots": 1.7753, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assists": 0.2287, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.3924, "xgot": 0.3149, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.1249, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "skill_edge": -0.118, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.5953, "defender_skill": 0.8575, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Gerard Martín", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 }, { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "market_value": 94000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8981 } ], "xg_override": 0.2398 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3122, "after": 1.7753 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4651, "after": 1.1249 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8471, "after": 0.6504 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5111, "after": 0.3924 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4101, "after": 0.3149 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3292, "after": 0.2528 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3123, "after": 0.2398 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2398, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6504, "total_shots": 1.7753, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.3924, "xgot": 0.3149, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.1249, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2915, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6504, "total_shots": 1.7753, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.3924, "xgot": 0.3828, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.1249, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2398, "after": 0.2915 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0722, "after": 0.0878 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2915, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6504, "total_shots": 1.7753, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.3924, "xgot": 0.3828, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.1249, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1878, "fifa_rank": 961.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2915, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6504, "total_shots": 1.7753, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.3924, "xgot": 0.3828, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.1249, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2529, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2529, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "scorer_weight": 0.3046, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.191, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2915, "goal_rate": 0.2528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6504, "total_shots": 1.7753, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.9426, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 80.4, "total_pass": 20.1878, "accurate_pass": 15.1904, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 1.4463, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1737, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3249, "crosses_total": 0.8372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2819, "touches": 36.2989, "possession_lost": 11.383, "dispossessed": 2.1166, "duels_lost": 5.9979, "aerial_lost": 2.1425, "total_contest": 1.2886, "won_contest": 0.5196, "ball_recovery": 2.6206, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.2325, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2012, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.6229, "clearances": 0.5842, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.4103, "big_chances_missed": 0.3924, "xgot": 0.3828, "offsides": 0.2619, "ball_carries": 10.4903, "total_progression": 14.4314, "progressive_carries": 0.8791, "shots_off_target": 1.1249, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2529, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0841, "finishing_factor": 1.0449, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.2287, "provider_weight": 0.1098, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.1082, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "player_id": 1011375, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 177, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3158, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2583, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5368, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 106, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2708, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2276, "finishing_factor": 1.0791, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5313, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2047, "expected_assists": 0.1421, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4941, "expected_assists": 0.0792, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1031, "expected_assists": 0.6366, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7526, "expected_assists": 0.1328, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3006, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083381, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6889, "expected_assists": 0.2853, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 207, "combined_rank_score": 125.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 158.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2931, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 93.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1969, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Guillermo Maripán", "ranking": 202 }, { "player_name": "Emil Tîmbur", "ranking": 203 }, { "player_name": "Matvii Ponomarenko", "ranking": 204 }, { "player_name": "Kim In-sung", "ranking": 205 }, { "player_name": "Marco Carnesecchi", "ranking": 206 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dávid Hancko", "ranking": 208 }, { "player_name": "Dae-han Park", "ranking": 209 }, { "player_name": "Vladimir Jovović", "ranking": 210 }, { "player_name": "Kenan Yıldız", "ranking": 211 }, { "player_name": "Ruslanbek Jiyanov", "ranking": 212 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0112, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2817, "goals": 0.3082, "goal_rate": 0.3082, "shots_on_target": 0.8739, "total_shots": 2.2082, "expected_assists": 0.2102, "key_pass": 1.6183, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 28.9054, "accurate_pass": 23.2394, "duels_won": 5.494, "total_long_balls": 0.7999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5164, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.38, "crosses_total": 1.7451, "crosses_accurate": 0.3087, "touches": 48.8557, "possession_lost": 13.7085, "dispossessed": 1.597, "duels_lost": 5.3831, "aerial_lost": 0.8691, "total_contest": 3.2257, "won_contest": 1.4208, "ball_recovery": 3.2988, "challenges_lost": 0.5152, "fouls": 0.8045, "fouls_drawn": 2.0612, "assists": 0.1306, "assist_rate": 0.1306, "interceptions": 0.2956, "tackles_won": 0.9658, "tackles": 1.3679, "clearances": 0.5635, "blocks": 0.035, "big_chances_created": 0.2186, "big_chances_missed": 0.2367, "xgot": 0.4788, "offsides": 0.045, "ball_carries": 17.6101, "total_progression": 104.7517, "progressive_carries": 4.4562, "shots_off_target": 1.3343 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 8.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 19.5703, "expectedGoals": 0.3164, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 15.8474, "accuratePass": 22.2897, "totalShots": 1.8255 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2816869914531708, "model_output": 0.2817, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0677 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": -0.052, "total": 0.2817, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.294682 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.16742 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.102408 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.09944 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.059647 } ], "others_margin": -0.169758 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3082413077354431, "model_output": 0.3082, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0703 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.3082, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.296738 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.141138 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.10425 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.081768 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061348 } ], "others_margin": -0.10579 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8739166855812073, "model_output": 0.8739, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2002 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0811 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.063 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0644 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0464 } ], "others": 0.0434, "total": 0.8739, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.316512 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.116472 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.091624 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.085661 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.057467 } ], "others_margin": 0.050986 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.2082254886627197, "model_output": 2.2082, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.18 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1589 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0799 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0695 } ], "others": -0.1682, "total": 2.2082, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.514311 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.180032 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.158868 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.07995 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.069521 } ], "others_margin": -0.168297 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.21024921536445618, "model_output": 0.2102, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0783, "total": 0.2102, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.203489 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.193793 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.125092 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.106769 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.091357 } ], "others_margin": 0.46555 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.618316411972046, "model_output": 1.6183, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1861 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1548 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1151 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0829 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0584 } ], "others": 0.3476, "total": 1.6183, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.244035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.165559 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.107506 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.070852 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.047085 } ], "others_margin": 0.241812 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.196934700012207, "model_output": 7.1969, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0702 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0341 } ], "others": 0.1952, "total": 7.1969, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.070166 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.050176 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.041015 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.039195 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034123 } ], "others_margin": 0.195259 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2848, "goals": 0.3117, "goal_rate": 0.3117, "shots_on_target": 0.8837, "total_shots": 2.233, "expected_assists": 0.2126, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assists": 0.1321, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2394, "xgot": 0.4842, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.3492 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2848, "goals": 0.3117, "goal_rate": 0.3117, "shots_on_target": 0.8837, "total_shots": 2.233, "expected_assists": 0.2126, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assists": 0.1321, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2394, "xgot": 0.4842, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.3492 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2598, "goals": 0.2843, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "shots_on_target": 0.806, "total_shots": 2.0367, "expected_assists": 0.2126, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assists": 0.1321, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2184, "xgot": 0.4416, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.2306, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "skill_edge": -0.0278, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.7957, "defender_skill": 0.8575, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Gerard Martín", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 }, { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "market_value": 94000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8981 } ], "xg_override": 0.2598 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.233, "after": 2.0367 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3492, "after": 1.2306 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8837, "after": 0.806 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4842, "after": 0.4416 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3117, "after": 0.2843 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2848, "after": 0.2598 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2394, "after": 0.2184 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2598, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.806, "total_shots": 2.0367, "expected_assists": 0.2126, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2184, "xgot": 0.4416, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.2306, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3158, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.806, "total_shots": 2.0367, "expected_assists": 0.2583, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2184, "xgot": 0.5368, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.2306, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0791, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2598, "after": 0.3158 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2126, "after": 0.2583 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3158, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.806, "total_shots": 2.0367, "expected_assists": 0.2583, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2184, "xgot": 0.5368, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.2306, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0791, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 207, "fifa_rank": 93.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3158, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.806, "total_shots": 2.0367, "expected_assists": 0.2583, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2184, "xgot": 0.5368, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.2306, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2708, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0791, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2708, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "scorer_weight": 0.3408, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.2136, "finishing_factor": 1.0791, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3158, "goal_rate": 0.2843, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.806, "total_shots": 2.0367, "expected_assists": 0.2583, "key_pass": 1.6364, "rating": 7.1969, "minutes": 82.42, "total_pass": 29.2291, "accurate_pass": 23.4997, "duels_won": 5.5555, "total_long_balls": 0.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5222, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5635, "crosses_total": 1.7646, "crosses_accurate": 0.3122, "touches": 49.4029, "possession_lost": 13.862, "dispossessed": 1.6149, "duels_lost": 5.4434, "aerial_lost": 0.8788, "total_contest": 3.2618, "won_contest": 1.4367, "ball_recovery": 3.3357, "challenges_lost": 0.521, "fouls": 0.8135, "fouls_drawn": 2.0843, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2989, "tackles_won": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.3832, "clearances": 0.5698, "blocks": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.221, "big_chances_missed": 0.2184, "xgot": 0.5368, "offsides": 0.0455, "ball_carries": 17.8073, "total_progression": 105.9249, "progressive_carries": 4.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.2306, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2708, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2276, "finishing_factor": 1.0791, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2276, "assist_rate": 0.1321, "provider_weight": 0.2066, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.2038, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Isco": { "player_id": 103417, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 176, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5453, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 46, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xavi Espart", "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.16, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1565, "finishing_factor": 1.0904, "creation_factor": 0.9589, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.8716, "expected_assists": 0.1758, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.366, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1248, "expected_assists": 0.1354, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3791, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 40, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.1013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 930, "combined_rank_score": 433.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 561.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8125, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 305.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0815, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Isco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Julián Brea", "ranking": 925 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Zalazar", "ranking": 926 }, { "player_name": "Karim Adeyemi", "ranking": 927 }, { "player_name": "Marlon Maranhão", "ranking": 928 }, { "player_name": "Islom Kenzhaboev", "ranking": 929 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 }, { "player_name": "Koen Casteels", "ranking": 933 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Pereira", "ranking": 934 }, { "player_name": "David Soria", "ranking": 935 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 16, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 16, "data_confidence": 0.763, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9957, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 121.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.23, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 16 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3863, "expected_assists": 0.1406, "assists": 0.1346, "assist_rate": 0.1346, "expected_goals": 0.1814, "goals": 0.2064, "goal_rate": 0.2064, "shots_on_target": 0.8187, "total_shots": 2.2826, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.8147, "accurate_pass": 36.1071, "duels_won": 2.1079, "total_long_balls": 2.2911, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8845, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5951, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2954, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.2196, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.8118, "crosses_total": 3.1546, "crosses_accurate": 1.1585, "touches": 51.9086, "possession_lost": 7.5983, "dispossessed": 0.5885, "duels_lost": 3.0699, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2408, "interceptions": 0.4595, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1069, "total_contest": 1.7, "won_contest": 0.4148, "challenges_lost": 0.8485, "fouls": 0.1069, "fouls_drawn": 1.6931, "blocks": 0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2696, "xgot": 0.5673, "ball_carries": 15.4935, "total_progression": 45.9057, "progressive_carries": 1.2879, "shots_off_target": 1.4639 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.162, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1377, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1171, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0995, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0846, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0719, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0611, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0519, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0442, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0375, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 16.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.2017, "creative_index": 0.8677, "expectedGoals": 0.4166, "expectedAssists": 0.1095, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.9677 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.3862898349761963, "model_output": 2.3863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1748 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1433 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1238 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1286 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.129 } ], "others": 0.7938, "total": 2.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.178753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125926 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.09736 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.092006 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.084478 } ], "others_margin": 0.404406 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1406267136335373, "model_output": 0.1406, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": 0.029, "total": 0.1406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.113199 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102406 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.051807 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.044672 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.043349 } ], "others_margin": 0.229865 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.13456887006759644, "model_output": 0.1346, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0153, "total": 0.1346, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.113916 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.104458 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.085109 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.078785 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.06901 } ], "others_margin": 0.120135 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1814451664686203, "model_output": 0.1814, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0474 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.1814, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.407267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.193229 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.14361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043655 } ], "others_margin": 0.042391 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.20636175572872162, "model_output": 0.2064, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0274, "total": 0.2064, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.369956 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.169089 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.129986 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117499 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077221 } ], "others_margin": 0.143044 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8186883926391602, "model_output": 0.8187, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1364 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1206 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0276 } ], "others": 0.135, "total": 0.8187, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.349837 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.231919 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122635 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076861 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.039499 } ], "others_margin": 0.179884 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.282564640045166, "model_output": 2.2826, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6862 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1932 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1175 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0979 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.081 } ], "others": 0.1113, "total": 2.2826, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.686169 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.193187 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.117507 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.097863 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.081023 } ], "others_margin": 0.111281 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.081492900848389, "model_output": 7.0815, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0217, "total": 7.0815, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.077712 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039662 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.034994 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030028 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024255 } ], "others_margin": 0.021786 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9957, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assists": 0.134, "assist_rate": 0.134, "expected_goals": 0.1807, "goals": 0.2055, "goal_rate": 0.2055, "shots_on_target": 0.8152, "total_shots": 2.2728, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.141, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4575, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1064, "fouls_drawn": 1.6858, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2684, "xgot": 0.5649, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.4576 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9957, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assists": 0.1322, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "expected_goals": 0.1807, "goals": 0.2027, "goal_rate": 0.2027, "shots_on_target": 0.8269, "total_shots": 2.2649, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2684, "xgot": 0.5649, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.4576 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0134, "history_matches": 16, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7559, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.1064, "after": 0.1362 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.141, "after": 3.1535 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8152, "after": 0.8269 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2728, "after": 2.2649 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assists": 0.1322, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "expected_goals": 0.1807, "goals": 0.2027, "goal_rate": 0.2027, "shots_on_target": 0.8269, "total_shots": 2.2845, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2684, "xgot": 0.5649, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.4576 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assists": 0.1322, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "expected_goals": 0.1435, "goals": 0.161, "goal_rate": 0.161, "shots_on_target": 0.6566, "total_shots": 1.8141, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2131, "xgot": 0.4486, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.1575, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xavi Espart", "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "skill_edge": -0.144, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4449, "defender_skill": 0.765, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Xavi Espart", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.765 } ], "xg_override": 0.1435 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2845, "after": 1.8141 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4576, "after": 1.1575 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8269, "after": 0.6566 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.5649, "after": 0.4486 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2684, "after": 0.2131 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2027, "after": 0.161 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1807, "after": 0.1435 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1435, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6566, "total_shots": 1.8141, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2131, "xgot": 0.4486, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.1575, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xavi Espart", "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6566, "total_shots": 1.8141, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2131, "xgot": 0.5453, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.1575, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xavi Espart", "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0904, "creation_factor": 0.9589 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1435, "after": 0.1744 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.14, "after": 0.1702 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6566, "total_shots": 1.8141, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2131, "xgot": 0.5453, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.1575, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xavi Espart", "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0904, "creation_factor": 0.9589, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 930, "fifa_rank": 305.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6566, "total_shots": 1.8141, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2131, "xgot": 0.5453, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.1575, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xavi Espart", "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.16, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0904, "creation_factor": 0.9589, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.16, "goal_rate": 0.161, "scorer_weight": 0.1902, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.1192, "finishing_factor": 1.0904, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.376, "expected_assists": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6566, "total_shots": 1.8141, "rating": 7.0815, "minutes": 68.03, "total_pass": 38.6478, "accurate_pass": 35.9518, "duels_won": 2.0988, "total_long_balls": 2.2812, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8764, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2468, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.7051, "crosses_total": 3.1535, "crosses_accurate": 1.1535, "touches": 51.6854, "possession_lost": 7.5656, "dispossessed": 0.586, "duels_lost": 3.0567, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2398, "interceptions": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1064, "total_contest": 1.6927, "won_contest": 0.413, "challenges_lost": 0.8449, "fouls": 0.1362, "fouls_drawn": 1.6866, "blocks": 0.2038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2131, "xgot": 0.5453, "ball_carries": 15.4269, "total_progression": 45.7083, "progressive_carries": 1.2824, "shots_off_target": 1.1575, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xavi Espart", "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.16, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1565, "finishing_factor": 1.0904, "creation_factor": 0.9589, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1565, "assist_rate": 0.1322, "provider_weight": 0.1632, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.1609, "creation_factor": 0.9589, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Antony": { "player_id": 958380, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 172, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2064, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3076, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 114, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1865, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1383, "finishing_factor": 1.1183, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.092, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7122, "expected_assists": 0.19, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 63, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5535, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3736, "expected_assists": 0.1311, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0805, "expected_assists": 0.1214, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3575, "expected_assists": 0.4688, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "expected_assists": 0.3657, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.069, "expected_assists": 0.1428, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 764, "combined_rank_score": 368.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 579.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2339, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antony", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jay O'Shea", "ranking": 759 }, { "player_name": "Chan-hee Han", "ranking": 760 }, { "player_name": "Abdullokh Yuldashev", "ranking": 761 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 762 }, { "player_name": "Joey Veerman", "ranking": 763 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marko Bugarin", "ranking": 765 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Araújo", "ranking": 766 }, { "player_name": "Han Tae-Hee", "ranking": 767 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Lobotka", "ranking": 768 }, { "player_name": "Pierre-Emile Højbjerg", "ranking": 769 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0086, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 5.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1953, "goals": 0.2285, "goal_rate": 0.2285, "shots_on_target": 1.0132, "total_shots": 2.5855, "expected_assists": 0.1214, "key_pass": 1.6649, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.1048, "accurate_pass": 37.8339, "duels_won": 4.285, "total_long_balls": 2.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4469, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7342, "crosses_total": 1.8614, "crosses_accurate": 0.382, "touches": 62.4636, "possession_lost": 12.445, "dispossessed": 0.6459, "duels_lost": 2.836, "aerial_lost": 0.2555, "total_contest": 2.0224, "won_contest": 1.2002, "ball_recovery": 3.6903, "challenges_lost": 0.3239, "fouls": 0.9792, "fouls_drawn": 1.3266, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles_won": 0.6935, "tackles": 1.3182, "clearances": 0.2819, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1197, "big_chances_missed": 0.4, "xgot": 0.2912, "offsides": 0.0513, "ball_carries": 23.6532, "total_progression": 113.1095, "progressive_carries": 4.5467, "shots_off_target": 1.5723 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 26.4023, "expectedGoals": 0.2563, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 22.026, "accuratePass": 31.3327, "totalShots": 3.3239 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19533081352710724, "model_output": 0.1953, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.1953, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24125 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.222412 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.160563 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.084412 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.051088 } ], "others_margin": -0.055044 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22854143381118774, "model_output": 0.2285, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.2285, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27679 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.155554 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.14311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.070336 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.06037 } ], "others_margin": -0.016888 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.013224482536316, "model_output": 1.0132, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1858 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0867 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0858 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0761 } ], "others": 0.2846, "total": 1.0132, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.296784 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.127685 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.121435 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.112687 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.099306 } ], "others_margin": 0.329771 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.5854995250701904, "model_output": 2.5855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3432 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1556 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1452 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.1219 } ], "others": 0.0952, "total": 2.5855, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.594377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.343227 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.155619 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.14525 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.121869 } ], "others_margin": 0.095055 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.12137434631586075, "model_output": 0.1214, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0067 } ], "others": 0.019, "total": 0.1214, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.202907 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.17848 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.094403 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.07624 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.067972 } ], "others_margin": 0.169112 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.6649030447006226, "model_output": 1.6649, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2228 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1545 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1462 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1344 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1082 } ], "others": 0.2254, "total": 1.6649, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.285845 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.159043 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.130315 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.106383 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.078116 } ], "others_margin": 0.145527 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2338666915893555, "model_output": 7.2339, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0586 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.054 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": 0.1421, "total": 7.2339, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.107055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062579 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.058632 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053997 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.042537 } ], "others_margin": 0.142062 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.197, "goals": 0.2305, "goal_rate": 0.2305, "shots_on_target": 1.0219, "total_shots": 2.6078, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8774, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9876, "fouls_drawn": 1.338, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "interceptions": 0.7266, "tackles_won": 0.6995, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.4034, "xgot": 0.2937, "offsides": 0.0517, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.5858 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.197, "goals": 0.2272, "goal_rate": 0.2272, "shots_on_target": 1.0285, "total_shots": 2.6341, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.4034, "xgot": 0.2937, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.5858 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8851, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.6078, "after": 2.6341 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8774, "after": 1.8886 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0219, "after": 1.0285 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.338, "after": 1.3442 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.197, "goals": 0.2272, "goal_rate": 0.2272, "shots_on_target": 1.0285, "total_shots": 2.6341, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.4034, "xgot": 0.2937, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.5858 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goals": 0.1958, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "shots_on_target": 0.8864, "total_shots": 2.2701, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.3477, "xgot": 0.2531, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.3666, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "skill_edge": -0.042, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.7641, "defender_skill": 0.8575, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Gerard Martín", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 }, { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "market_value": 94000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8981 } ], "xg_override": 0.1698 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.6341, "after": 2.2701 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5858, "after": 1.3666 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0285, "after": 0.8864 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4034, "after": 0.3477 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2937, "after": 0.2531 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2272, "after": 0.1958 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.197, "after": 0.1698 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8864, "total_shots": 2.2701, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.3477, "xgot": 0.2531, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.3666, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2064, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8864, "total_shots": 2.2701, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.3477, "xgot": 0.3076, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.3666, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1183, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1698, "after": 0.2064 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1224, "after": 0.1488 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2064, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8864, "total_shots": 2.2701, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.3477, "xgot": 0.3076, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.3666, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1183, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 764, "fifa_rank": 579.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2064, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8864, "total_shots": 2.2701, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.3477, "xgot": 0.3076, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.3666, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1865, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1183, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1865, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "scorer_weight": 0.2308, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.1447, "finishing_factor": 1.1183, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2064, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8864, "total_shots": 2.2701, "expected_assists": 0.1488, "key_pass": 1.6792, "rating": 7.2339, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.4927, "accurate_pass": 38.1593, "duels_won": 4.3219, "total_long_balls": 2.2935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4593, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9641, "crosses_total": 1.8886, "crosses_accurate": 0.3853, "touches": 63.0008, "possession_lost": 12.552, "dispossessed": 0.6515, "duels_lost": 2.8604, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0398, "won_contest": 1.2105, "ball_recovery": 3.722, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 0.9861, "fouls_drawn": 1.3442, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7246, "tackles_won": 0.6979, "tackles": 1.3295, "clearances": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0026, "big_chances_created": 0.1207, "big_chances_missed": 0.3477, "xgot": 0.3076, "offsides": 0.051, "ball_carries": 23.8566, "total_progression": 114.0822, "progressive_carries": 4.5858, "shots_off_target": 1.3666, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Gerard Martín, Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1865, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1383, "finishing_factor": 1.1183, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1383, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "provider_weight": 0.119, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.1174, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Facundo Bernal": { "player_id": 1177404, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 187, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "finishing_factor": 1.0977, "creation_factor": 1.1113, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0691, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 57, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3724, "combined_rank_score": 1703.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 490.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2916.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8306, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Facundo Bernal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andreas Tetteh", "ranking": 3719 }, { "player_name": "Kiril Despodov", "ranking": 3720 }, { "player_name": "Lamare Bogarde", "ranking": 3721 }, { "player_name": "Darius Olaru", "ranking": 3722 }, { "player_name": "Jairo Concha", "ranking": 3723 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Roberto Fernández", "ranking": 3725 }, { "player_name": "Veljko Birmančević", "ranking": 3726 }, { "player_name": "Jay DaSilva", "ranking": 3727 }, { "player_name": "Oskar Pietuszewski", "ranking": 3728 }, { "player_name": "Honest Ahanor", "ranking": 3729 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.712, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.712, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0017, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 220.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.23, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5235, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0396, "expected_goals": 0.0385, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "shots_on_target": 0.1697, "total_shots": 0.7452, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.3343, "accurate_pass": 40.5665, "duels_won": 3.9055, "total_long_balls": 6.1924, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9078, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.95, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6166, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.5813, "possession_lost": 6.203, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7032, "aerial_won": 0.5012, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.624, "tackles_won": 0.6396, "tackles": 2.1847, "clearances": 1.0997, "total_contest": 0.3604, "won_contest": 0.3604, "challenges_lost": 0.5648, "fouls": 1.1384, "fouls_drawn": 0.8592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7019, "total_progression": 29.2743, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5755 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8767, "creative_index": 0.0528, "expectedGoals": 0.0278, "expectedAssists": 0.0112, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1152 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5234508514404297, "model_output": 0.5235, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1183 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.1014 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0867 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0472 } ], "others": -0.1372, "total": 0.5235, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127327 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.124047 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.120158 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.115577 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069008 } ], "others_margin": -0.23266 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.029029173776507378, "model_output": 0.029, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.029, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.255203 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.210557 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.166861 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126626 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.105052 } ], "others_margin": -0.470806 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03956202417612076, "model_output": 0.0396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.0396, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.239907 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.116067 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.094527 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089898 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.085893 } ], "others_margin": -0.164521 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.038534291088581085, "model_output": 0.0385, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 0.0385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.460655 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.14636 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.100103 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.098157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.038565 } ], "others_margin": -0.251247 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05042148754000664, "model_output": 0.0504, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.0504, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.18327 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.153083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120971 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.10525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101831 } ], "others_margin": -0.201649 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1697472780942917, "model_output": 0.1697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0591 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 0.1697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.200235 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.162973 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.143392 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12342 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.067749 } ], "others_margin": -0.200826 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7452453374862671, "model_output": 0.7452, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0581 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0329 } ], "others": -0.1891, "total": 0.7452, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129417 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058116 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057206 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.04241 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03293 } ], "others_margin": -0.189045 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8306121826171875, "model_output": 6.8306, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0328, "total": 6.8306, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030411 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020769 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016181 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016048 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008746 } ], "others_margin": -0.03265 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0396, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "total_shots": 0.7465, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 0.5021, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6268, "tackles_won": 0.6407, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1403, "fouls_drawn": 0.8607, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5765 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.7614, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 0.5021, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5765 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8868, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1403, "after": 1.1069 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7465, "after": 0.7614 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6407, "after": 0.6289 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.6268, "after": 1.6364 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.17, "after": 0.1784 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8607, "after": 0.8554 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.1784, "total_shots": 0.7614, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 0.5021, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5765 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.0399, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.6298, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4768, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "skill_edge": -0.1617, "height_edge": 0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.5389, "defender_skill": 0.8981, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "market_value": 113000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8981 } ], "xg_override": 0.0319 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5021, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7614, "after": 0.6298 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5765, "after": 0.4768 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1784, "after": 0.1476 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0483, "after": 0.0399 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0386, "after": 0.0319 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.6298, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4768, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.6298, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4768, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0977, "creation_factor": 1.1113 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0319, "after": 0.0388 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0354 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.6298, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4768, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0977, "creation_factor": 1.1113, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3724, "fifa_rank": 2916.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.6298, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4768, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0977, "creation_factor": 1.1113, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "scorer_weight": 0.0426, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0267, "finishing_factor": 1.0977, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5243, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.6298, "rating": 6.8306, "minutes": 79.81, "total_pass": 46.4131, "accurate_pass": 40.6355, "duels_won": 3.9121, "total_long_balls": 6.2029, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9127, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9856, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6499, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.6792, "possession_lost": 6.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7061, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.6364, "tackles_won": 0.6289, "tackles": 2.1884, "clearances": 1.1016, "total_contest": 0.361, "won_contest": 0.361, "challenges_lost": 0.5658, "fouls": 1.1069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 14.7269, "total_progression": 29.3241, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4768, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0381, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "finishing_factor": 1.0977, "creation_factor": 1.1113, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "provider_weight": 0.0393, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0388, "creation_factor": 1.1113, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Pablo Fornals": { "player_id": 816763, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 37, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 69, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0579, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0766, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1575, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "creation_factor": 0.8288, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 62, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1542, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0843, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.118, "expected_assists": 0.0698, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 65, "key_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1081, "expected_assists": 0.2178, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1902, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0236, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 379, "combined_rank_score": 196.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 243.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1243, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 149.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0425, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo Fornals", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dilshod Komilov", "ranking": 374 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Rossi", "ranking": 375 }, { "player_name": "Bo-sang Yun", "ranking": 376 }, { "player_name": "David Alaba", "ranking": 377 }, { "player_name": "Felix Nmecha", "ranking": 378 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bashar Resan", "ranking": 380 }, { "player_name": "Casemiro", "ranking": 381 }, { "player_name": "Waldemar Anton", "ranking": 382 }, { "player_name": "Alfie McCalmont", "ranking": 383 }, { "player_name": "Jurriën Timber", "ranking": 384 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.772, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.772, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 202.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1467 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assists": 0.1094, "assist_rate": 0.1094, "expected_goals": 0.086, "goals": 0.1069, "goal_rate": 0.1069, "shots_on_target": 0.372, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.075, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8006, "tackles_won": 0.2102, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.913, "fouls_drawn": 0.9458, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.829 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.2074, "creative_index": 0.7498, "expectedGoals": 0.0598, "expectedAssists": 0.0953, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1832 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.6487916707992554, "model_output": 1.6488, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1618 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0932 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0789 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0735 } ], "others": 0.2074, "total": 1.6488, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.146564 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14543 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.075029 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.0594 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.052352 } ], "others_margin": 0.134456 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.14100097119808197, "model_output": 0.141, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0042 } ], "others": 0.0169, "total": 0.141, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.124791 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121592 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.056086 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.034868 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034667 } ], "others_margin": 0.126608 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1094057559967041, "model_output": 0.1094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.1094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.089156 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.081047 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.078821 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.077556 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.050266 } ], "others_margin": -0.049933 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08595926314592361, "model_output": 0.086, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.086, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.147079 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.061712 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.052771 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.034998 } ], "others_margin": -0.114495 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.10690045356750488, "model_output": 0.1069, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 0.1069, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.135268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.089748 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.069912 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.055994 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.052687 } ], "others_margin": -0.06932 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3719687759876251, "model_output": 0.372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 0.372, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.159949 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126392 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.110283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06213 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020578 } ], "others_margin": -0.084866 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2009226083755493, "model_output": 1.2009, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1584 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.03 } ], "others": -0.1373, "total": 1.2009, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.158445 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.143635 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.051304 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040633 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.030009 } ], "others_margin": -0.137372 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.042482376098633, "model_output": 7.0425, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": 0.0256, "total": 7.0425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.1123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033476 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020504 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020293 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.017766 } ], "others_margin": 0.025672 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assists": 0.1094, "assist_rate": 0.1094, "expected_goals": 0.086, "goals": 0.1069, "goal_rate": 0.1069, "shots_on_target": 0.372, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.075, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8006, "tackles_won": 0.2102, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.913, "fouls_drawn": 0.9458, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.829 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0097)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.086, "goals": 0.1059, "goal_rate": 0.1059, "shots_on_target": 0.3684, "total_shots": 1.2127, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.829 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0097, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9013, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.201, "after": 1.2127 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.075, "after": 3.0849 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9458, "after": 0.9366 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8006, "after": 0.8088 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2102, "after": 0.2161 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.086, "goals": 0.1059, "goal_rate": 0.1059, "shots_on_target": 0.3684, "total_shots": 1.2127, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.829 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.9244, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.6319, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "skill_edge": -0.1697, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.5211, "defender_skill": 0.8981, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "market_value": 113000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8981 } ], "xg_override": 0.0656 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3677, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2127, "after": 0.9244 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.829, "after": 0.6319 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3684, "after": 0.2808 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1059, "after": 0.0807 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.086, "after": 0.0656 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0624, "after": 0.0476 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.141, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.9244, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.6319, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.9244, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0579, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.6319, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "creation_factor": 0.8288 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0656, "after": 0.0797 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.141, "after": 0.1714 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.9244, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0579, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.6319, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "creation_factor": 0.8288, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 379, "fifa_rank": 149.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.9244, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0579, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.6319, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0766, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "creation_factor": 0.8288, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "scorer_weight": 0.0901, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0565, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6488, "expected_assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.9244, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 81.12, "total_pass": 56.5414, "accurate_pass": 49.7304, "duels_won": 2.5645, "total_long_balls": 3.4647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8534, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3008, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4297, "crosses_total": 3.0849, "crosses_accurate": 0.8114, "touches": 69.4184, "possession_lost": 11.3461, "dispossessed": 0.5034, "duels_lost": 3.2616, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8514, "interceptions": 0.8088, "tackles_won": 0.2161, "tackles": 0.46, "clearances": 0.1024, "total_contest": 1.1907, "won_contest": 0.796, "challenges_lost": 0.8246, "fouls": 0.9081, "fouls_drawn": 0.9366, "blocks": 0.0189, "big_chances_created": 0.1441, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0579, "ball_carries": 22.53, "total_progression": 50.9769, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "shots_off_target": 0.6319, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0766, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1575, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "creation_factor": 0.8288, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1575, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "provider_weight": 0.1421, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.1401, "creation_factor": 0.8288, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Valentín Gómez": { "player_id": 1186010, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 181, "market_value": 11200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "finishing_factor": 1.0322, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 85, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083318, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 27, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3105, "combined_rank_score": 1070.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1984.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8255, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Valentín Gómez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexander Prass", "ranking": 3100 }, { "player_name": "Darwin Núñez", "ranking": 3101 }, { "player_name": "Fran Beltrán", "ranking": 3102 }, { "player_name": "Archie Gray", "ranking": 3103 }, { "player_name": "Rico Lewis", "ranking": 3104 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Leandro Barreiro", "ranking": 3106 }, { "player_name": "Mattias Svanberg", "ranking": 3107 }, { "player_name": "Zakaria El Ouahdi", "ranking": 3108 }, { "player_name": "Haris Tabaković", "ranking": 3109 }, { "player_name": "Guus Til", "ranking": 3110 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0013, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 31 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.874, "tackles": 1.316, "tackles_won": 0.7667, "clearances": 6.0316, "aerial_won": 1.9992, "total_shots": 0.3806, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.3902, "accurate_pass": 46.0199, "duels_won": 4.4568, "total_long_balls": 4.8953, "accurate_long_balls": 2.005, "total_own_half_passes": 32.8948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4484, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5715, "crosses_total": 0.3167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0654, "touches": 66.6049, "possession_lost": 6.9786, "dispossessed": 0.3997, "duels_lost": 3.5389, "aerial_lost": 1.327, "total_contest": 0.6597, "won_contest": 0.6597, "ball_recovery": 2.3933, "challenges_lost": 0.9914, "fouls": 1.107, "fouls_drawn": 0.6579, "blocks": 0.513, "goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0143, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "shots_on_target": 0.1743, "big_chances_created": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 14.861, "total_progression": 46.9729, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4765, "shots_off_target": 0.2063 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.4833, "aerialWon": 1.3643, "totalClearance_p90": 7.2259, "totalTackle": 1.152, "defensive_actions": 1.8071 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8740430474281311, "model_output": 0.874, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1207 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0907 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 0.874, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131187 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.096914 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.030668 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.022945 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.022018 } ], "others_margin": 0.010649 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3160403966903687, "model_output": 1.316, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1825 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0583 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.1037, "total": 1.316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123258 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.037738 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.029663 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.018943 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.016844 } ], "others_margin": -0.075828 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.766652524471283, "model_output": 0.7667, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1128 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0234 } ], "others": -0.1223, "total": 0.7667, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12405 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.045443 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042043 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.029367 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.025944 } ], "others_margin": -0.148078 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.031636714935303, "model_output": 6.0316, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7842 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3569 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3703 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1601 } ], "others": 0.3833, "total": 6.0316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.205748 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121349 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.072284 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.069849 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028753 } ], "others_margin": 0.065679 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.999222993850708, "model_output": 1.9992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.189 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1981 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1299 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1248 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1226 } ], "others": 0.1027, "total": 1.9992, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.128603 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119087 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.07104 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063808 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.06263 } ], "others_margin": 0.052716 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3806288242340088, "model_output": 0.3806, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1213 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0365, "total": 0.3806, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.12133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05247 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019153 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015467 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015082 } ], "others_margin": -0.036408 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825455665588379, "model_output": 6.8255, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": 0.014, "total": 6.8255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.023779 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.016251 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013068 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012588 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.012411 } ], "others_margin": 0.013969 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0013, quality 0.536)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8752, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.3811, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "blocks": 0.5137, "goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0143, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "shots_on_target": 0.1745, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11200000, "quality_factor": 0.5365, "boost_factor": 1.0013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7676, "after": 0.781 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8752, "after": 0.882 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.38, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.38, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goals": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.38, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.38, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0322, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.38, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0322, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3105, "fifa_rank": 1984.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.38, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0322, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "scorer_weight": 0.0153, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0096, "finishing_factor": 1.0322, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.882, "tackles": 1.3178, "tackles_won": 0.781, "clearances": 6.0395, "aerial_won": 2.0018, "total_shots": 0.38, "rating": 6.8255, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.457, "accurate_pass": 46.0797, "duels_won": 4.4626, "total_long_balls": 4.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0076, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9376, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5904, "crosses_total": 0.3152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0655, "touches": 66.6915, "possession_lost": 6.9877, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 3.5435, "aerial_lost": 1.3287, "total_contest": 0.6606, "won_contest": 0.6606, "ball_recovery": 2.3964, "challenges_lost": 0.9927, "fouls": 1.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.6548, "blocks": 0.5137, "goal_rate": 0.0142, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 14.8803, "total_progression": 47.034, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4771, "shots_off_target": 0.2066, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "finishing_factor": 1.0322, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0128, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0126, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Diego Llorente": { "player_id": 305278, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 185, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0541, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9276, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 39, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 46, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1339, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 64, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083381, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083211, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 43, "interceptions": 6, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 84, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1326, "combined_rank_score": 575.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 952.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.822, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Llorente", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Felipe Chamorro", "ranking": 1321 }, { "player_name": "Beka Mikeltadze", "ranking": 1322 }, { "player_name": "Fornals", "ranking": 1323 }, { "player_name": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "ranking": 1324 }, { "player_name": "Brahim", "ranking": 1325 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Brandon Mechele", "ranking": 1327 }, { "player_name": "De Frutos", "ranking": 1328 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rueda", "ranking": 1329 }, { "player_name": "Ji-yong Jeong", "ranking": 1330 }, { "player_name": "Jae-jun You", "ranking": 1331 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 21, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 21, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9961, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 21 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1827, "tackles": 1.3754, "tackles_won": 0.7918, "clearances": 5.621, "aerial_won": 1.9599, "total_shots": 0.414, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.381, "accurate_pass": 41.5074, "duels_won": 3.6516, "total_long_balls": 4.041, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8814, "total_own_half_passes": 33.1704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.91, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5974, "crosses_total": 0.2437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.6695, "possession_lost": 4.5574, "dispossessed": 0.048, "duels_lost": 2.3368, "aerial_lost": 1.2216, "total_contest": 0.1148, "won_contest": 0.0983, "ball_recovery": 3.1194, "challenges_lost": 0.477, "fouls": 0.7635, "fouls_drawn": 0.4079, "blocks": 0.9566, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.142, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0447, "ball_carries": 15.4273, "total_progression": 50.2779, "progressive_carries": 0.3225, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.272 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1551, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 39.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1318, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1121, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0953, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.081, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0688, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0585, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0497, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0423, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0359, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.4036, "aerialWon": 1.7056, "totalClearance_p90": 6.1961, "totalTackle": 1.4048, "defensive_actions": 3.3265 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.182690143585205, "model_output": 1.1827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1076 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": 0.0444, "total": 1.1827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117723 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.084448 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.038452 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02322 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015457 } ], "others_margin": 0.038299 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3753920793533325, "model_output": 1.3754, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1663 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0747 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0351 } ], "others": -0.0821, "total": 1.3754, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049138 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026046 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.023775 } ], "others_margin": -0.058032 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7918333411216736, "model_output": 0.7918, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1131 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0477 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0281 } ], "others": -0.1069, "total": 0.7918, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124377 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060344 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.051069 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.033531 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.030793 } ], "others_margin": -0.126553 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.621042728424072, "model_output": 5.621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7733 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5391 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3846 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3564 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.145 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 5.621, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.203156 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077928 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.067179 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.02609 } ], "others_margin": -0.001787 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.9599285125732422, "model_output": 1.9599, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1789 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1888 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0992 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0793 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0774 } ], "others": -0.041, "total": 1.9599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.122099 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114536 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.055294 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.039439 } ], "others_margin": -0.020671 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4140404760837555, "model_output": 0.414, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0504, "total": 0.414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056778 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.044781 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011266 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008646 } ], "others_margin": -0.050278 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.821996212005615, "model_output": 6.822, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0135, "total": 6.822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016966 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.016691 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011694 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011458 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009736 } ], "others_margin": 0.01361 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1781, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7887, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4124, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7605, "fouls_drawn": 0.4063, "blocks": 0.9529, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0445, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9961, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.409, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0445, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9038, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1781, "after": 1.206 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7887, "after": 0.7821 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4111, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0445, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4111, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0445, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4111, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0445, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4111, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0541, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9276 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4111, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0541, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9276, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1326, "fifa_rank": 952.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4111, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0541, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9276, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0184, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0115, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.206, "tackles": 1.37, "tackles_won": 0.7821, "clearances": 5.5991, "aerial_won": 1.9523, "total_shots": 0.4111, "rating": 6.822, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 45.204, "accurate_pass": 41.3455, "duels_won": 3.6374, "total_long_balls": 4.0252, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8741, "total_own_half_passes": 33.041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.7856, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.56, "crosses_total": 0.2407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.4368, "possession_lost": 4.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0478, "duels_lost": 2.3277, "aerial_lost": 1.2168, "total_contest": 0.1144, "won_contest": 0.0979, "ball_recovery": 3.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.4751, "fouls": 0.7617, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "blocks": 0.9529, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.1402, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0541, "ball_carries": 15.3671, "total_progression": 50.0818, "progressive_carries": 0.3212, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2709, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9276, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0044, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0043, "creation_factor": 0.9276, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Héctor Bellerín": { "player_id": 188365, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 178, "market_value": 2500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.1053, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1172, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0829, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0999, "finishing_factor": 0.8144, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0577, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3612, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4954, "expected_assists": 0.2704, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 6, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0761, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 43, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 70, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3356, "combined_rank_score": 1306.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 663.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7296, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 1949.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7293, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Héctor Bellerín", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Morato", "ranking": 3351 }, { "player_name": "Javi Rodríguez", "ranking": 3352 }, { "player_name": "Kristian Thorstvedt", "ranking": 3353 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Santos", "ranking": 3354 }, { "player_name": "Soufiane Rahimi", "ranking": 3355 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Perri", "ranking": 3357 }, { "player_name": "Billy Gilmour", "ranking": 3358 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 3359 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 3360 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker", "ranking": 3361 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.772, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.772, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9975, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 200.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1467 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9722, "tackles": 1.9095, "tackles_won": 1.2673, "clearances": 2.1326, "aerial_won": 0.6627, "total_shots": 0.5398, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.364, "accurate_pass": 40.6175, "duels_won": 2.9135, "total_long_balls": 2.3216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9733, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2619, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4477, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1698, "crosses_total": 1.5297, "crosses_accurate": 0.2493, "touches": 65.1638, "possession_lost": 9.7974, "dispossessed": 0.2227, "duels_lost": 3.0508, "aerial_lost": 0.3991, "total_contest": 0.4436, "won_contest": 0.2025, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.4512, "fouls": 0.7367, "fouls_drawn": 0.3014, "blocks": 0.1397, "goals": 0.0494, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "assists": 0.194, "assist_rate": 0.194, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "expected_assists": 0.0868, "shots_on_target": 0.2783, "big_chances_created": 0.0421, "xgot": 0.0966, "ball_carries": 14.8774, "total_progression": 53.5126, "progressive_carries": 2.045, "key_pass": 0.9289, "shots_off_target": 0.2615 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 5.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 5.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.0866, "aerialWon": 0.3906, "totalClearance_p90": 2.3922, "totalTackle": 1.6379, "defensive_actions": 2.4485 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9721566438674927, "model_output": 0.9722, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": 0.0361, "total": 0.9722, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120136 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.044677 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.032224 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.030035 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.018806 } ], "others_margin": 0.03782 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.9094799757003784, "model_output": 1.9095, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1867 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0725 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0521 } ], "others": 0.0839, "total": 1.9095, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125913 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.04489 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.036805 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.034925 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028939 } ], "others_margin": 0.044974 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2672595977783203, "model_output": 1.2673, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1177 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0679 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0325 } ], "others": 0.1632, "total": 1.2673, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129134 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.067574 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.060282 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.030154 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.029912 } ], "others_margin": 0.137738 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.132627487182617, "model_output": 2.1326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.6089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3605 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2776 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1752 } ], "others": -0.3916, "total": 2.1326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.195259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120154 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.091203 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.074001 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067122 } ], "others_margin": -0.168571 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6627249717712402, "model_output": 0.6627, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1127 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0826 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0416 } ], "others": -0.126, "total": 0.6627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.460347 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121898 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.087857 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079828 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051379 } ], "others_margin": -0.174016 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.539763867855072, "model_output": 0.5398, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0197, "total": 0.5398, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061115 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.036286 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025224 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024426 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.013189 } ], "others_margin": -0.019746 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729301452636719, "model_output": 6.7293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 6.7293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014205 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010529 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.009083 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008921 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008521 } ], "others_margin": -0.021984 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9697, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2641, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5385, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5259, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7349, "fouls_drawn": 0.3006, "blocks": 0.1394, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0.1935, "assist_rate": 0.1935, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "expected_assists": 0.0866, "shots_on_target": 0.2776, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.0964, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0119)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5321, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0.1912, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "expected_assists": 0.0866, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.0964, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0119, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9743, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5259, "after": 1.5394 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9697, "after": 0.9581 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2641, "after": 1.2543 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7349, "after": 0.7261 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5385, "after": 0.5321 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5351, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0.1912, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "expected_assists": 0.0866, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.0964, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5351, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0.1912, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "expected_assists": 0.0866, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.0964, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5351, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "expected_assists": 0.0866, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.0964, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5351, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.1053, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.1172, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8144, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0712, "after": 0.0865 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0866, "after": 0.1053 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5351, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.1053, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.1172, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8144, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3356, "fifa_rank": 1949.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5351, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.1053, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.1172, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0829, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8144, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0829, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "scorer_weight": 0.0704, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0442, "finishing_factor": 0.8144, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9581, "tackles": 1.9047, "tackles_won": 1.2543, "clearances": 2.1273, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "total_shots": 0.5351, "rating": 6.7293, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 46.2481, "accurate_pass": 40.516, "duels_won": 2.9062, "total_long_balls": 2.3158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9709, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3941, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0468, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1219, "crosses_total": 1.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.2487, "touches": 65.0009, "possession_lost": 9.7729, "dispossessed": 0.2221, "duels_lost": 3.0432, "aerial_lost": 0.3981, "total_contest": 0.4425, "won_contest": 0.202, "ball_recovery": 3.1149, "challenges_lost": 1.4476, "fouls": 0.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.297, "blocks": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.1053, "shots_on_target": 0.2743, "big_chances_created": 0.042, "xgot": 0.1172, "ball_carries": 14.8402, "total_progression": 53.3788, "progressive_carries": 2.0399, "key_pass": 0.9266, "shots_off_target": 0.2608, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0829, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0999, "finishing_factor": 0.8144, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0999, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "provider_weight": 0.1316, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.1298, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Álvaro Valles": { "player_id": 964983, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 9300000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3757, "shots_faced": 36.2, "expected_saves": 8.86, "high_pressure_saves": 3.05, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2268 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.1632 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3324 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 1.8369 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 2.9806 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.583 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.1262 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5213 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -1.0184 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0838 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2143, "combined_rank_score": 808.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 50.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1567.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.3729, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vlatko Stojanovski", "ranking": 2138 }, { "player_name": "Islom Tukhtakhuzhaev", "ranking": 2139 }, { "player_name": "Juan Figueroa", "ranking": 2140 }, { "player_name": "Kaito Taniguchi", "ranking": 2141 }, { "player_name": "Seok-jun Hong", "ranking": 2142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lazar Samardžić", "ranking": 2144 }, { "player_name": "Giovanny Avalos", "ranking": 2145 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "ranking": 2146 }, { "player_name": "Breel Embolo", "ranking": 2147 }, { "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 2148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0003, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9952, "goals_prevented": 0.1747, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9184, "accurate_pass": 19.8533, "total_long_balls": 12.476, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5718, "touches": 39.1493, "clearances": 1.2326, "ball_recovery": 8.2386, "high_claims": 1.304, "punches": 0.3722, "aerial_won": 0.5119, "sweeper_actions": 1.4422, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3848, "saves_inside_box": 3.0204, "possession_lost": 7.1593, "duels_won": 0.6585, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0366, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0091 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 9.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.5717, "save_contribution": 4.7481, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9306, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 17.009, "passValueNormalized": 0.0844, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 18.2574 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.995166778564453, "model_output": 2.9952, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 2.9952, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.008127 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007978 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.007868 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.007711 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.00612 } ], "others_margin": -0.003832 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.17470331490039825, "model_output": 0.1747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": 0.0621, "total": 0.1747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.03711 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.03675 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.023529 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.023126 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.020296 } ], "others_margin": 0.062004 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.372898578643799, "model_output": 7.3729, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0743 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": 0.1642, "total": 7.3729, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.074259 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.047332 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.030953 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029383 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.029314 } ], "others_margin": 0.164254 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.514)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9961, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0366, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9300000, "quality_factor": 0.5142, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0159)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0159, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9961, "after": 3.0014 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3757, "shots_faced": 32.1, "expected_saves": 7.86, "high_pressure_saves": 2.7, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 3.3757 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3757, "shots_faced": 32.1, "expected_saves": 7.86, "high_pressure_saves": 2.7, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3757, "shots_faced": 36.2, "expected_saves": 8.86, "high_pressure_saves": 3.05, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 32.1, "after": 36.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 7.86, "after": 8.86 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 2.7, "after": 3.05 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3757, "shots_faced": 36.2, "expected_saves": 8.86, "high_pressure_saves": 3.05, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2143, "fifa_rank": 1567.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3757, "shots_faced": 36.2, "expected_saves": 8.86, "high_pressure_saves": 3.05, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0014, "goals_prevented": 0.1748, "rating": 7.3729, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9265, "accurate_pass": 19.8593, "total_long_balls": 12.4797, "accurate_long_balls": 5.5735, "touches": 39.161, "clearances": 1.233, "ball_recovery": 8.2411, "high_claims": 1.3044, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "sweeper_actions": 1.4426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3852, "saves_inside_box": 3.0213, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "duels_won": 0.6587, "duels_lost": 0.0776, "total_contest": 0.1092, "won_contest": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.036, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0142, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3757, "shots_faced": 36.2, "expected_saves": 8.86, "high_pressure_saves": 3.05, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marc Bartra": { "player_id": 99519, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 183, "market_value": 930000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0728, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0444, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0702, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0152, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0827, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 51, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1284, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 13, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083211, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083318, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2145, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.015, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 100, "accurate_pass": 89, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.127, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081801, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1666, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 77, "clearances": 13, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 21, "combined_rank_score": 24.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 33.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 15.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8553, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Bartra", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cesinha", "ranking": 16 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 17 }, { "player_name": "Memphis Depay", "ranking": 18 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Henrique", "ranking": 19 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "ranking": 20 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Khvicha Kvaratskhelia", "ranking": 22 }, { "player_name": "Danijel Petković", "ranking": 23 }, { "player_name": "Angel Fortuno", "ranking": 24 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-woo Cho", "ranking": 25 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Kimmich", "ranking": 26 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9971, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 30 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9518, "tackles": 1.5133, "tackles_won": 0.9655, "clearances": 5.8415, "aerial_won": 1.879, "total_shots": 0.6409, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.2809, "accurate_pass": 37.7811, "duels_won": 3.8381, "total_long_balls": 5.7953, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5758, "total_own_half_passes": 26.108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7413, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1729, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0398, "crosses_total": 0.3092, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.9776, "possession_lost": 6.3279, "dispossessed": 0.0285, "duels_lost": 2.1503, "aerial_lost": 0.9371, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.2989, "ball_recovery": 2.4944, "challenges_lost": 0.8173, "fouls": 0.3738, "fouls_drawn": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.9276, "goals": 0.1215, "goal_rate": 0.1215, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0366, "ball_carries": 13.536, "total_progression": 60.3644, "progressive_carries": 0.2989, "key_pass": 0.207, "shots_off_target": 0.2935 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 51.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.671, "aerialWon": 1.5811, "totalClearance_p90": 6.5715, "totalTackle": 1.5422, "defensive_actions": 2.2107 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9517925977706909, "model_output": 0.9518, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1209 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 0.9518, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131383 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.034656 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.027581 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.023667 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015324 } ], "others_margin": -0.015566 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.5132801532745361, "model_output": 1.5133, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1824 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0393 } ], "others": -0.0881, "total": 1.5133, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123183 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.035165 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.030959 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.024558 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024223 } ], "others_margin": -0.056633 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9655439853668213, "model_output": 0.9655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1125 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0315 } ], "others": -0.0889, "total": 0.9655, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123676 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.046933 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.036835 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032601 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.029446 } ], "others_margin": -0.088033 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.841457366943359, "model_output": 5.8415, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7926 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5674 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3303 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.2648 } ], "others": 0.1404, "total": 5.8415, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.207738 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12601 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.063317 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062684 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.047561 } ], "others_margin": 0.024314 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8790158033370972, "model_output": 1.879, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1195 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0898 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0776 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0806 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 1.879, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106649 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.075108 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.052952 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043574 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.043352 } ], "others_margin": -0.011021 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6409488320350647, "model_output": 0.6409, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1593 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0552, "total": 0.6409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.159312 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057048 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032702 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021576 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.016443 } ], "others_margin": -0.05523 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.855320930480957, "model_output": 6.8553, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0282, "total": 6.8553, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035071 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016931 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012805 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011487 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008285 } ], "others_margin": 0.028219 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.949, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9627, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6391, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3083, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3727, "fouls_drawn": 0.203, "blocks": 0.9249, "goals": 0.1211, "goal_rate": 0.1211, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.3464, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 930000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9971, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goals": 0.1247, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8259, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.949, "after": 0.9577 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6391, "after": 0.6465 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3083, "after": 0.3147 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goals": 0.1247, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goals": 0.1247, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0728, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0444, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0728 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0728, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0444, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 21, "fifa_rank": 15.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 89.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0728, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0444, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0702, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "scorer_weight": 0.091, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0571, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9577, "tackles": 1.5089, "tackles_won": 0.9661, "clearances": 5.8245, "aerial_won": 1.8736, "total_shots": 0.6465, "rating": 6.8553, "minutes": 74.33, "total_pass": 43.1554, "accurate_pass": 37.6715, "duels_won": 3.827, "total_long_balls": 5.7785, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5683, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6696, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.002, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 56.8124, "possession_lost": 6.3095, "dispossessed": 0.0284, "duels_lost": 2.1441, "aerial_lost": 0.9344, "total_contest": 0.3266, "won_contest": 0.298, "ball_recovery": 2.4872, "challenges_lost": 0.8149, "fouls": 0.3681, "fouls_drawn": 0.2005, "blocks": 0.9249, "goal_rate": 0.1247, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0728, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3472, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0444, "ball_carries": 13.4967, "total_progression": 60.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.298, "key_pass": 0.2064, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0702, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0152, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0122, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0121, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Diego Conde": { "player_id": 951008, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 188, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0147, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1174, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3128, "combined_rank_score": 1089.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1974.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Conde", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mykola Shaparenko", "ranking": 3123 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 3124 }, { "player_name": "Kepa", "ranking": 3125 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Molina", "ranking": 3126 }, { "player_name": "Václav Jemelka", "ranking": 3127 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lawrence Shankland", "ranking": 3129 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Carter-Vickers", "ranking": 3130 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Wimmer", "ranking": 3131 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Lemar", "ranking": 3132 }, { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.40206294284004, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10918467922000183, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4399, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€3,200,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 9.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.6, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.7, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1418, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 1.3206, "accurate_pass": 0.9782, "total_long_balls": 0.4402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1956, "touches": 1.5652, "clearances": 0.044, "ball_recovery": 0.0587, "high_claims": 0.0293, "punches": 0.0147, "aerial_won": 0.0342, "sweeper_actions": 0.0587, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0587, "possession_lost": 0.1174, "duels_won": 0.0196, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0489, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1418, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 1.3206, "accurate_pass": 0.9782, "total_long_balls": 0.4402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1956, "touches": 1.5652, "clearances": 0.044, "ball_recovery": 0.0587, "high_claims": 0.0293, "punches": 0.0147, "aerial_won": 0.0342, "sweeper_actions": 0.0587, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0587, "possession_lost": 0.1174, "duels_won": 0.0196, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1418, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 1.3206, "accurate_pass": 0.9782, "total_long_balls": 0.4402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1956, "touches": 1.5652, "clearances": 0.044, "ball_recovery": 0.0587, "high_claims": 0.0293, "punches": 0.0147, "aerial_won": 0.0342, "sweeper_actions": 0.0587, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0587, "possession_lost": 0.1174, "duels_won": 0.0196, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1418, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 1.3206, "accurate_pass": 0.9782, "total_long_balls": 0.4402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1956, "touches": 1.5652, "clearances": 0.044, "ball_recovery": 0.0587, "high_claims": 0.0293, "punches": 0.0147, "aerial_won": 0.0342, "sweeper_actions": 0.0587, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0587, "possession_lost": 0.1174, "duels_won": 0.0196, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3128, "fifa_rank": 1974.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Natan": { "player_id": 1015287, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 3.0771, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0396, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0507, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 46, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1107, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 90, "accurate_pass": 85, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2144, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 43, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 37, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1452, "combined_rank_score": 599.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 969.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8342, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Natan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kuvonch Abraev", "ranking": 1447 }, { "player_name": "César Dutra", "ranking": 1448 }, { "player_name": "Samed Baždar", "ranking": 1449 }, { "player_name": "Curtis Jones", "ranking": 1450 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro García", "ranking": 1451 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ayoze Pérez", "ranking": 1453 }, { "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking": 1454 }, { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 1456 }, { "player_name": "Gulyamkhaydar Gulyamov", "ranking": 1457 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.738792805130341, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.241, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0076, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (40 historical appearances) to 14.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.531, "tackles": 0.5884, "tackles_won": 0.3029, "clearances": 2.2713, "aerial_won": 0.9634, "total_shots": 0.1917, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 51.8217, "accurate_pass": 47.917, "duels_won": 4.1185, "total_long_balls": 3.5418, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4128, "total_own_half_passes": 35.3783, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8301, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0869, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3725, "possession_lost": 4.144, "dispossessed": 0.0565, "duels_lost": 1.669, "aerial_lost": 0.9459, "total_contest": 0.2329, "won_contest": 0.191, "ball_recovery": 3.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.1415, "fouls": 0.4831, "fouls_drawn": 0.5604, "blocks": 0.9671, "goals": 0.0925, "goal_rate": 0.0925, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0929, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0533, "ball_carries": 19.1103, "total_progression": 60.9465, "progressive_carries": 0.6635, "key_pass": 0.3656, "shots_off_target": 0.0988 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 7.0965, "aerialWon": 1.9902, "totalClearance_p90": 7.6462, "totalTackle": 1.3799, "defensive_actions": 2.0568 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.530987024307251, "model_output": 0.531, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4243 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": 0.03, "total": 0.531, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.678989 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.070773 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.058725 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.038321 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.030015 } ], "others_margin": 0.057975 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.588424563407898, "model_output": 0.5884, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7064 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0365, "total": 0.5884, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.708512 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.065197 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.029704 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.018086 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.015321 } ], "others_margin": -0.060045 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3029073178768158, "model_output": 0.3029, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4485 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0619, "total": 0.3029, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.744653 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.064628 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.056321 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054795 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.043006 } ], "others_margin": -0.185939 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.271299123764038, "model_output": 2.2713, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.04 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4851 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1117 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0982 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.077 } ], "others": 0.1066, "total": 2.2713, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.902125 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.298885 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057785 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.036237 } ], "others_margin": 0.048059 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9634354114532471, "model_output": 0.9634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7793 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1252 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0806 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0525 } ], "others": 0.0562, "total": 0.9634, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.834319 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.190133 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.105678 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.061364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059588 } ], "others_margin": 0.060172 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19165204465389252, "model_output": 0.1917, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2467 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 0.1917, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.246655 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020355 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013884 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013872 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.012477 } ], "others_margin": -0.028328 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8341593742370605, "model_output": 6.8342, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 6.8342, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039009 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02344 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019386 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.01657 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014358 } ], "others_margin": 0.012289 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.535, "tackles": 0.5929, "tackles_won": 0.3052, "clearances": 2.2886, "aerial_won": 0.9708, "total_shots": 0.1932, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 52.2155, "accurate_pass": 48.2812, "duels_won": 4.1498, "total_long_balls": 3.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4235, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6472, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0872, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5684, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.194, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.8617, "possession_lost": 4.1755, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 1.6817, "aerial_lost": 0.9531, "total_contest": 0.2347, "won_contest": 0.1925, "ball_recovery": 3.1038, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.4868, "fouls_drawn": 0.5647, "blocks": 0.9744, "goals": 0.0932, "goal_rate": 0.0932, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0474, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 19.2555, "total_progression": 61.4097, "progressive_carries": 0.6685, "key_pass": 0.3684, "shots_off_target": 0.0996 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0076, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5298, "tackles": 0.5929, "tackles_won": 0.3065, "clearances": 2.2886, "aerial_won": 0.9708, "total_shots": 0.1924, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 52.2155, "accurate_pass": 48.2812, "duels_won": 4.1498, "total_long_balls": 3.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4235, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6472, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0872, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5684, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.194, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.8617, "possession_lost": 4.1755, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 1.6817, "aerial_lost": 0.9531, "total_contest": 0.2347, "won_contest": 0.1925, "ball_recovery": 3.1038, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.4832, "fouls_drawn": 0.5593, "blocks": 0.9744, "goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0923, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0474, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0927, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 19.2555, "total_progression": 61.4097, "progressive_carries": 0.6685, "key_pass": 0.3684, "shots_off_target": 0.0996 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2222, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5647, "after": 0.5593 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.535, "after": 0.5298 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.0 to 14.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3904, "tackles": 0.4369, "tackles_won": 0.2259, "clearances": 1.6866, "aerial_won": 0.7154, "total_shots": 0.1418, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 38.4797, "accurate_pass": 35.5803, "duels_won": 3.0582, "total_long_balls": 2.6299, "accurate_long_balls": 1.049, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1202, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4601, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7992, "possession_lost": 3.0771, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 1.2393, "aerial_lost": 0.9531, "total_contest": 0.173, "won_contest": 0.1419, "ball_recovery": 2.2873, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.3561, "fouls_drawn": 0.4122, "blocks": 0.7181, "goals": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 0.0683, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0396, "ball_carries": 14.1901, "total_progression": 45.2552, "progressive_carries": 0.4926, "key_pass": 0.2715, "shots_off_target": 0.0734, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.74, "projection_minutes": 20.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7369, "appearance_probability": 0.241 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3904, "tackles": 0.4369, "tackles_won": 0.2259, "clearances": 1.6866, "aerial_won": 0.7154, "total_shots": 0.1418, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 38.4797, "accurate_pass": 35.5803, "duels_won": 3.0582, "total_long_balls": 2.6299, "accurate_long_balls": 1.049, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1202, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4601, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7992, "possession_lost": 3.0771, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 1.2393, "aerial_lost": 0.9531, "total_contest": 0.173, "won_contest": 0.1419, "ball_recovery": 2.2873, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.3561, "fouls_drawn": 0.4122, "blocks": 0.7181, "goals": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 0.0683, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0396, "ball_carries": 14.1901, "total_progression": 45.2552, "progressive_carries": 0.4926, "key_pass": 0.2715, "shots_off_target": 0.0734, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3904, "tackles": 0.4369, "tackles_won": 0.2259, "clearances": 1.6866, "aerial_won": 0.7154, "total_shots": 0.1418, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 38.4797, "accurate_pass": 35.5803, "duels_won": 3.0582, "total_long_balls": 2.6299, "accurate_long_balls": 1.049, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1202, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4601, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7992, "possession_lost": 3.0771, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 1.2393, "aerial_lost": 0.9531, "total_contest": 0.173, "won_contest": 0.1419, "ball_recovery": 2.2873, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.3561, "fouls_drawn": 0.4122, "blocks": 0.7181, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 0.0683, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0396, "ball_carries": 14.1901, "total_progression": 45.2552, "progressive_carries": 0.4926, "key_pass": 0.2715, "shots_off_target": 0.0734, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.241, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3904, "tackles": 0.4369, "tackles_won": 0.2259, "clearances": 1.6866, "aerial_won": 0.7154, "total_shots": 0.1418, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 38.4797, "accurate_pass": 35.5803, "duels_won": 3.0582, "total_long_balls": 2.6299, "accurate_long_balls": 1.049, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1202, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4601, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7992, "possession_lost": 3.0771, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 1.2393, "aerial_lost": 0.9531, "total_contest": 0.173, "won_contest": 0.1419, "ball_recovery": 2.2873, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.3561, "fouls_drawn": 0.4122, "blocks": 0.7181, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 0.0683, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0396, "ball_carries": 14.1901, "total_progression": 45.2552, "progressive_carries": 0.4926, "key_pass": 0.2715, "shots_off_target": 0.0734, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1452, "fifa_rank": 969.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Fran García": { "player_id": 851271, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 170, "market_value": 9200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.5788, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1781, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1724, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.351, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0818, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083422, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3196, "combined_rank_score": 1155.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1565.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7665, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fran García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samson Baidoo", "ranking": 3191 }, { "player_name": "Guéla Doué", "ranking": 3192 }, { "player_name": "Amar Dedić", "ranking": 3193 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Harwood-Bellis", "ranking": 3194 }, { "player_name": "Saïd El Mala", "ranking": 3195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rômulo", "ranking": 3197 }, { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 }, { "player_name": "Juan Iglesias", "ranking": 3199 }, { "player_name": "Thierno Barry", "ranking": 3200 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Palacios", "ranking": 3201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 20, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.84, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.351, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0005, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 32.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (20 historical appearances) to 23.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.35); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 32.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3438, "tackles": 0.792, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "clearances": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.2227, "total_shots": 0.2267, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 29.73, "total_pass": 11.3578, "accurate_pass": 9.3649, "duels_won": 2.3938, "total_long_balls": 0.2667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2667, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1238, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2681, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2411, "crosses_total": 1.114, "crosses_accurate": 0.5805, "touches": 22.8166, "possession_lost": 4.4608, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.033, "aerial_lost": 1.4524, "total_contest": 0.2667, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1611, "challenges_lost": 0.3138, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4595, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.2267, "goal_rate": 0.2267, "assists": 0.3138, "assist_rate": 0.3138, "expected_goals": 0.1158, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "big_chances_created": 0.3138, "xgot": 0.2149, "ball_carries": 4.654, "total_progression": 33.0257, "progressive_carries": 0.6113, "key_pass": 0.5806, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.156, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1326, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1127, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0958, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0815, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0692, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0589, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.05, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0425, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0361, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.7954, "aerialWon": 0.4469, "totalClearance_p90": 1.831, "totalTackle": 2.6714, "defensive_actions": 3.5293 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.34380435943603516, "model_output": 0.3438, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4816 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 0.3438, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.819631 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.035503 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.034435 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.029968 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.025456 } ], "others_margin": -0.043888 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7919655442237854, "model_output": 0.792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7972 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": 0.0681, "total": 0.792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.850702 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.071521 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.048756 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.040256 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.036661 } ], "others_margin": 0.089885 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5514807105064392, "model_output": 0.5515, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4671 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0673, "total": 0.5515, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.791607 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.072173 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.059666 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.058881 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.032888 } ], "others_margin": 0.130481 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.7859722375869751, "model_output": 0.786, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0481 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2644 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0697 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0621 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.044 } ], "others": -0.1584, "total": 0.786, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.907906 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.211881 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.064234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.06094 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.045527 } ], "others_margin": -0.183703 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.22272898256778717, "model_output": 0.2227, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8013 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1929 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": -0.0703, "total": 0.2227, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.871824 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.407705 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.099524 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.088327 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.080281 } ], "others_margin": -0.274273 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2267, "model_output": 0.2044, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 0.2044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.217973 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06936 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018357 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.016823 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009728 } ], "others_margin": -0.027675 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.766522407531738, "model_output": 6.7665, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": 0.0138, "total": 6.7665, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015803 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009259 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.009246 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008146 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008002 } ], "others_margin": 0.013784 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.344, "tackles": 0.7924, "tackles_won": 0.5518, "clearances": 0.7864, "aerial_won": 0.2228, "total_shots": 0.2268, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 29.73, "total_pass": 11.3635, "accurate_pass": 9.3696, "duels_won": 2.395, "total_long_balls": 0.2668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2668, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1269, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2702, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2427, "crosses_total": 1.1146, "crosses_accurate": 0.5808, "touches": 22.828, "possession_lost": 4.463, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.034, "aerial_lost": 1.4531, "total_contest": 0.2668, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1617, "challenges_lost": 0.314, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4597, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.2268, "goal_rate": 0.2268, "assists": 0.314, "assist_rate": 0.314, "expected_goals": 0.1159, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.314, "xgot": 0.215, "ball_carries": 4.6563, "total_progression": 33.0422, "progressive_carries": 0.6116, "key_pass": 0.5809, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0208)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3454, "tackles": 0.7924, "tackles_won": 0.5489, "clearances": 0.7864, "aerial_won": 0.2228, "total_shots": 0.2221, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 29.73, "total_pass": 11.3635, "accurate_pass": 9.3696, "duels_won": 2.395, "total_long_balls": 0.2668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2668, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1269, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2702, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2427, "crosses_total": 1.1229, "crosses_accurate": 0.5808, "touches": 22.828, "possession_lost": 4.463, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.034, "aerial_lost": 1.4531, "total_contest": 0.2668, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1617, "challenges_lost": 0.314, "fouls": 0.0057, "fouls_drawn": 0.4559, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.2221, "goal_rate": 0.2221, "assists": 0.3103, "assist_rate": 0.3103, "expected_goals": 0.1159, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.2221, "big_chances_created": 0.314, "xgot": 0.215, "ball_carries": 4.6563, "total_progression": 33.0422, "progressive_carries": 0.6116, "key_pass": 0.5809, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0208, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3303, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1146, "after": 1.1229 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0057 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.7 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.277, "tackles": 0.6354, "tackles_won": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.6306, "aerial_won": 0.1787, "total_shots": 0.1781, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 9.1122, "accurate_pass": 7.5133, "duels_won": 1.9205, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_own_half_passes": 5.688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9131, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4242, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6003, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.4657, "touches": 18.3054, "possession_lost": 3.5788, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.631, "aerial_lost": 1.4531, "total_contest": 0.2139, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9315, "challenges_lost": 0.314, "fouls": 0.0046, "fouls_drawn": 0.3656, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1781, "goal_rate": 0.1781, "assists": 0.2488, "assist_rate": 0.2488, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "big_chances_created": 0.2518, "xgot": 0.1724, "ball_carries": 3.7338, "total_progression": 26.496, "progressive_carries": 0.4904, "key_pass": 0.4658, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.351, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.84, "projection_minutes": 29.73, "minutes_scale": 0.8019, "appearance_probability": 0.351 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.277, "tackles": 0.6354, "tackles_won": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.6306, "aerial_won": 0.1787, "total_shots": 0.1781, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 9.1122, "accurate_pass": 7.5133, "duels_won": 1.9205, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_own_half_passes": 5.688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9131, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4242, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6003, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.4657, "touches": 18.3054, "possession_lost": 3.5788, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.631, "aerial_lost": 1.4531, "total_contest": 0.2139, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9315, "challenges_lost": 0.314, "fouls": 0.0046, "fouls_drawn": 0.3656, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1781, "goal_rate": 0.1781, "assists": 0.2488, "assist_rate": 0.2488, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "big_chances_created": 0.2518, "xgot": 0.1724, "ball_carries": 3.7338, "total_progression": 26.496, "progressive_carries": 0.4904, "key_pass": 0.4658, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.351, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.277, "tackles": 0.6354, "tackles_won": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.6306, "aerial_won": 0.1787, "total_shots": 0.1781, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 9.1122, "accurate_pass": 7.5133, "duels_won": 1.9205, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_own_half_passes": 5.688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9131, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4242, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6003, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.4657, "touches": 18.3054, "possession_lost": 3.5788, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.631, "aerial_lost": 1.4531, "total_contest": 0.2139, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9315, "challenges_lost": 0.314, "fouls": 0.0046, "fouls_drawn": 0.3656, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1781, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "big_chances_created": 0.2518, "xgot": 0.1724, "ball_carries": 3.7338, "total_progression": 26.496, "progressive_carries": 0.4904, "key_pass": 0.4658, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.351, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.351, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.277, "tackles": 0.6354, "tackles_won": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.6306, "aerial_won": 0.1787, "total_shots": 0.1781, "rating": 6.7665, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 9.1122, "accurate_pass": 7.5133, "duels_won": 1.9205, "total_long_balls": 0.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2139, "total_own_half_passes": 5.688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9131, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4242, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6003, "crosses_total": 0.9004, "crosses_accurate": 0.4657, "touches": 18.3054, "possession_lost": 3.5788, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.631, "aerial_lost": 1.4531, "total_contest": 0.2139, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9315, "challenges_lost": 0.314, "fouls": 0.0046, "fouls_drawn": 0.3656, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1781, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "big_chances_created": 0.2518, "xgot": 0.1724, "ball_carries": 3.7338, "total_progression": 26.496, "progressive_carries": 0.4904, "key_pass": 0.4658, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.351, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3196, "fifa_rank": 1565.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Sergi Altimira": { "player_id": 1137814, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 188, "market_value": 19300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083657, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081801, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1412, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081791, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083509, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083263, "match_date": "2026-02-08", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 771, "combined_rank_score": 519.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9667, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 664.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7321, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergi Altimira", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Araújo", "ranking": 766 }, { "player_name": "Han Tae-Hee", "ranking": 767 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Lobotka", "ranking": 768 }, { "player_name": "Pierre-Emile Højbjerg", "ranking": 769 }, { "player_name": "James Tarkowski", "ranking": 770 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joshua Oluwayemi", "ranking": 772 }, { "player_name": "Eric Bailly", "ranking": 773 }, { "player_name": "Bobir Abdikholikov", "ranking": 774 }, { "player_name": "Saidazamat Mirsaidov", "ranking": 775 }, { "player_name": "Yuri Alberto", "ranking": 776 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 24, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71152221225244, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5323419187387474, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0062, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (24 historical appearances) to 22.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2528, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.0337, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.02, "goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0709, "total_shots": 0.2705, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 21.69, "total_pass": 13.2726, "accurate_pass": 12.0672, "duels_won": 1.8123, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3671, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.131, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9363, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.0564, "possession_lost": 2.1098, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.3742, "aerial_won": 0.4985, "aerial_lost": 0.0417, "interceptions": 0.4232, "tackles_won": 0.6325, "tackles": 0.668, "clearances": 0.6243, "total_contest": 0.2826, "won_contest": 0.1295, "challenges_lost": 0.6254, "fouls": 0.2481, "fouls_drawn": 0.5654, "blocks": 0.1106, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.03, "ball_carries": 4.3162, "total_progression": 7.7482, "progressive_carries": 0.1279, "shots_off_target": 0.1996 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1531, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1301, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1106, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.094, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0799, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0679, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0577, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0491, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0355, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4955, "creative_index": 0.1658, "expectedGoals": 0.0163, "expectedAssists": 0.0247, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2355 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2528066039085388, "model_output": 0.2528, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3829 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0632 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": -0.0917, "total": 0.2528, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559974 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.132258 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.11317 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.099339 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047887 } ], "others_margin": -0.309314 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.019824227318167686, "model_output": 0.0198, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0198, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506657 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.246188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.169245 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.150946 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.070607 } ], "others_margin": -0.319606 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.033735454082489014, "model_output": 0.0337, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.0337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.257155 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.112979 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101459 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.084225 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.074457 } ], "others_margin": -0.319858 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.019988104701042175, "model_output": 0.02, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.02, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517394 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.444494 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190861 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091669 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.075681 } ], "others_margin": -0.231193 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.02729141339659691, "model_output": 0.0273, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.0273, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444854 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.24982 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.164653 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093554 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.056108 } ], "others_margin": -0.267247 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07091367244720459, "model_output": 0.0709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.0709, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.61158 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.256902 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.185229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.16847 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034923 } ], "others_margin": -0.2675 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27051982283592224, "model_output": 0.2705, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3308 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0223 } ], "others": -0.1192, "total": 0.2705, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.330813 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185799 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039806 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027114 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022339 } ], "others_margin": -0.119143 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.732085227966309, "model_output": 6.7321, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.098 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 6.7321, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098003 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.006513 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.006314 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.006308 } ], "others_margin": -0.015439 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2544, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assists": 0.0339, "assist_rate": 0.0339, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.0714, "total_shots": 0.2722, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 21.69, "total_pass": 13.3549, "accurate_pass": 12.142, "duels_won": 1.8235, "total_long_balls": 0.4113, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3694, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9731, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1683, "possession_lost": 2.1229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.3827, "aerial_won": 0.5016, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4258, "tackles_won": 0.6364, "tackles": 0.6721, "clearances": 0.6282, "total_contest": 0.2844, "won_contest": 0.1303, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2496, "fouls_drawn": 0.5689, "blocks": 0.1113, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0302, "ball_carries": 4.343, "total_progression": 7.7962, "progressive_carries": 0.1287, "shots_off_target": 0.2008 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goals": 0.0288, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.71, "projection_minutes": 21.69, "minutes_scale": 1.0471, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goals": 0.0288, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.021, "after": 0.0136 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0208, "after": 0.0135 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 771, "fifa_rank": 664.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "scorer_weight": 0.0151, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "provider_weight": 0.0163, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0161, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nelson Deossa": { "player_id": 1129401, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 185, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0876, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.31, "expected_assists": 0.1789, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0523, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0965, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3441, "combined_rank_score": 1430.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7514, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nelson Deossa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lorenzo Melgarejo", "ranking": 3436 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Chorý", "ranking": 3437 }, { "player_name": "Ferran Jutglà", "ranking": 3438 }, { "player_name": "César Tárrega", "ranking": 3439 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Stassin", "ranking": 3440 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Nwaneri", "ranking": 3444 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Martínez Quarta", "ranking": 3445 }, { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.764, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.57, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0007, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (28 historical appearances) to 19.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.57); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5244, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.0624, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 1.0065, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 16.7, "total_pass": 10.0904, "accurate_pass": 8.4023, "duels_won": 2.2963, "total_long_balls": 0.3425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3231, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3224, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4557, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.08, "crosses_total": 0.086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.9258, "possession_lost": 3.1467, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 1.7111, "aerial_won": 1.0384, "aerial_lost": 0.5, "interceptions": 0.0436, "tackles_won": 0.2839, "tackles": 0.2839, "clearances": 0.2506, "total_contest": 0.9536, "won_contest": 0.7027, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.4501, "fouls_drawn": 0.2712, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1767, "big_chances_missed": 0.1726, "xgot": 0.0952, "ball_carries": 5.3516, "total_progression": 23.1617, "progressive_carries": 0.6911, "shots_off_target": 0.7827 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.7889, "creative_index": 0.3326, "expectedGoals": 0.0679, "expectedAssists": 0.0344, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3931 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5244277715682983, "model_output": 0.5244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3836 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0846, "total": 0.5244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561334 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.072155 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.063637 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.055874 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.044959 } ], "others_margin": 0.175783 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03466497361660004, "model_output": 0.0347, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": 0.0028, "total": 0.0347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510347 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.19872 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.130727 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.071797 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.070841 } ], "others_margin": 0.078009 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0652194619178772, "model_output": 0.0652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": 0.003, "total": 0.0652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.253443 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.167266 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.084448 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.064099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.063368 } ], "others_margin": 0.046068 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06480399519205093, "model_output": 0.0648, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0032 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 0.0648, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.563667 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.134063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100189 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.045642 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.042214 } ], "others_margin": -0.049075 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06241799145936966, "model_output": 0.0624, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.0624, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.562472 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.194183 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.061675 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.057278 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044136 } ], "others_margin": -0.243755 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2237631380558014, "model_output": 0.2238, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 0.2238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.652764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.198181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.078996 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.055041 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.05155 } ], "others_margin": 0.003599 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0064574480056763, "model_output": 1.0065, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4824 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3523 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0339 } ], "others": 0.0739, "total": 1.0065, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.48237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.352301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057342 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.043837 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.033937 } ], "others_margin": 0.07375 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.751354694366455, "model_output": 6.7514, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1017 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 6.7514, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101743 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030681 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012483 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.005938 } ], "others_margin": -0.008037 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0007, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5248, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0653, "assist_rate": 0.0653, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.2239, "total_shots": 1.0072, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 16.7, "total_pass": 10.0975, "accurate_pass": 8.4082, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 0.3427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3233, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.324, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4609, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0843, "crosses_total": 0.0861, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.9369, "possession_lost": 3.1489, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 1.7123, "aerial_won": 1.0391, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.0436, "tackles_won": 0.2841, "tackles": 0.2841, "clearances": 0.2508, "total_contest": 0.9543, "won_contest": 0.7032, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.4504, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 5.3553, "total_progression": 23.1779, "progressive_carries": 0.6916, "shots_off_target": 0.7832 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9800000, "quality_factor": 0.5201, "boost_factor": 1.0007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5248, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0647, "assist_rate": 0.0647, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2231, "total_shots": 1.0053, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 16.7, "total_pass": 10.0975, "accurate_pass": 8.4082, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 0.3427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3233, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.324, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4609, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0843, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.9369, "possession_lost": 3.1489, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 1.7123, "aerial_won": 1.0391, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.0444, "tackles_won": 0.2839, "tackles": 0.2841, "clearances": 0.2508, "total_contest": 0.9543, "won_contest": 0.7032, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.4487, "fouls_drawn": 0.2701, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 5.3553, "total_progression": 23.1779, "progressive_carries": 0.6916, "shots_off_target": 0.7832 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1856, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.7 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0772, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 16.7, "minutes_scale": 1.1934, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0772, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0773, "after": 0.0536 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0414, "after": 0.0287 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3441, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "scorer_weight": 0.0522, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0327, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "provider_weight": 0.0359, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0354, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Troy Parrott": { "player_id": 966555, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0255, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.2476, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7686, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3679, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0997, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1404, "combined_rank_score": 580.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 87.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.52, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5866, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Troy Parrott", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jerome Abbey", "ranking": 1399 }, { "player_name": "Rayan", "ranking": 1400 }, { "player_name": "Amir Rrahmani", "ranking": 1401 }, { "player_name": "Josep Chavarría", "ranking": 1402 }, { "player_name": "Abde", "ranking": 1403 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anan Khalaili", "ranking": 1405 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo May", "ranking": 1406 }, { "player_name": "Pubill", "ranking": 1407 }, { "player_name": "Bozhidar Kraev", "ranking": 1408 }, { "player_name": "Aïssa Mandi", "ranking": 1409 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.57, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.57, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.544, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0232, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (5 historical appearances) to 22.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.54); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1399, "goals": 0.1595, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "shots_on_target": 0.3588, "total_shots": 0.7587, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3334, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 17.66, "total_pass": 3.9504, "accurate_pass": 2.9504, "duels_won": 0.9417, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2313, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1147, "possession_lost": 3.6696, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7775, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7775, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6113, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3304, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "tackles": 0.6113, "clearances": 0.8921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4595, "xgot": 0.2642, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3887, "total_progression": 9.9566, "progressive_carries": 0.6696, "shots_off_target": 0.3999 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.4106, "expectedGoals": 0.2419, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.7866, "accuratePass": 5.2511, "totalShots": 1.1656 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13993273675441742, "model_output": 0.1399, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 0.1399, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529826 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.172387 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.042599 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.040007 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.034957 } ], "others_margin": -0.019603 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1595018208026886, "model_output": 0.1595, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0716 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.1595, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.433826 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.193121 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.062928 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.060323 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044722 } ], "others_margin": -0.080735 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.35881751775741577, "model_output": 0.3588, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2124 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0037, "total": 0.3588, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502543 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.056338 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.053016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051098 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.029849 } ], "others_margin": 0.010046 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7586708068847656, "model_output": 0.7587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1159 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": -0.0728, "total": 0.7587, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517795 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115936 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.04249 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.026424 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.022523 } ], "others_margin": -0.072876 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.029881635680794716, "model_output": 0.0299, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0299, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.426255 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.167464 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10375 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.101074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.059978 } ], "others_margin": -0.113978 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.33338573575019836, "model_output": 0.3334, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2573 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0241, "total": 0.3334, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.481531 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077288 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057007 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040959 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.023235 } ], "others_margin": -0.069442 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.586633682250977, "model_output": 6.5866, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0538, "total": 6.5866, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061863 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.019097 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017109 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014782 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.013748 } ], "others_margin": -0.053769 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0232, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1432, "goals": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1632, "shots_on_target": 0.3671, "total_shots": 0.7763, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.3411, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 17.66, "total_pass": 4.042, "accurate_pass": 3.0188, "duels_won": 0.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2599, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.3494, "possession_lost": 3.7547, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7955, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7955, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6255, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3381, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2874, "tackles": 0.6255, "clearances": 0.9128, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4441, "total_progression": 10.1876, "progressive_carries": 0.6851, "shots_off_target": 0.4092 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0232, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0173)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1432, "goals": 0.1604, "goal_rate": 0.1604, "shots_on_target": 0.3607, "total_shots": 0.7749, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.3411, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 17.66, "total_pass": 4.042, "accurate_pass": 3.0188, "duels_won": 0.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2599, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.3494, "possession_lost": 3.7547, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7955, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7955, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6255, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.3322, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2952, "tackles": 0.6255, "clearances": 0.9128, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2703, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 2.4441, "total_progression": 10.1876, "progressive_carries": 0.6851, "shots_off_target": 0.4092 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0173, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1962, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2874, "after": 0.2952 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3671, "after": 0.3607 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3381, "after": 0.3322 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goals": 0.2069, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.3487, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 17.66, "minutes_scale": 1.2899, "appearance_probability": 0.544 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goals": 0.2069, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.3487, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.3487, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.544 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1847, "after": 0.1221 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0395, "after": 0.0261 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1404, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "scorer_weight": 0.1337, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0838, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "appearance_weight": 0.544, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0255, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0209, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0206, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.544, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rodrigo Riquelme": { "player_id": 989113, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 174, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0759, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.7931, "dispossessed": 0.6179, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1217, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1672, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1649, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1264, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7508, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0849, "expected_assists": 0.0963, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 224, "combined_rank_score": 220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 167.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 274.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6365, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javohir Ilyosov", "ranking": 219 }, { "player_name": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "ranking": 220 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Porro", "ranking": 221 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Garro", "ranking": 222 }, { "player_name": "Ylyas Chouaref", "ranking": 223 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luis Chávez", "ranking": 225 }, { "player_name": "Julio González", "ranking": 226 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Magalhães", "ranking": 227 }, { "player_name": "Ikram Alibaev", "ranking": 228 }, { "player_name": "Roger Brugué", "ranking": 229 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.772, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.772, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.356033856478426, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.335, "market_value_adjustment": 0.998, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.9090909090909092, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (33 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.34); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0588, "goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.2108, "total_shots": 0.5409, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.3913, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 19.61, "total_pass": 6.7732, "accurate_pass": 5.6194, "duels_won": 1.2202, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.151, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2898, "crosses_total": 0.2491, "crosses_accurate": 0.1162, "touches": 11.5813, "possession_lost": 2.9394, "dispossessed": 0.6191, "duels_lost": 2.0279, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "total_contest": 1.0533, "won_contest": 0.3543, "ball_recovery": 1.1118, "challenges_lost": 0.2443, "fouls": 0.1238, "fouls_drawn": 0.2991, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1008, "tackles_won": 0.3091, "tackles": 0.5469, "clearances": 0.1566, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1393, "big_chances_missed": 0.0496, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 0.081, "ball_carries": 3.3962, "total_progression": 17.3503, "progressive_carries": 0.7855, "shots_off_target": 0.3301 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.9274, "expectedGoals": 0.1014, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.5202, "accuratePass": 11.2512, "totalShots": 0.7761 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05880361795425415, "model_output": 0.0588, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0212, "total": 0.0588, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593097 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.160119 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.065315 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044065 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.03989 } ], "others_margin": -0.309149 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.057976722717285156, "model_output": 0.058, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0972 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.058, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.650103 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.145637 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.117482 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.061111 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": -0.039105 } ], "others_margin": -0.241487 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21080517768859863, "model_output": 0.2108, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0558, "total": 0.2108, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.563544 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.089577 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.048854 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038707 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038093 } ], "others_margin": -0.234911 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5409282445907593, "model_output": 0.5409, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1456 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0252 } ], "others": -0.1149, "total": 0.5409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.487902 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.145617 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.031808 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027514 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025192 } ], "others_margin": -0.114879 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04226507991552353, "model_output": 0.0423, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.0423, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.327596 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072825 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049219 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.041388 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.035726 } ], "others_margin": 0.025693 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.39131230115890503, "model_output": 0.3913, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.238 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0024, "total": 0.3913, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.436181 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059267 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037205 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036603 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032506 } ], "others_margin": -0.006037 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.636508464813232, "model_output": 6.6365, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0685 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0642, "total": 6.6365, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068478 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01169 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009953 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008847 } ], "others_margin": -0.064245 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.0579, "shots_on_target": 0.2104, "total_shots": 0.5398, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "key_pass": 0.3905, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 19.61, "total_pass": 6.7597, "accurate_pass": 5.6082, "duels_won": 1.2178, "total_long_balls": 0.2435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2832, "crosses_total": 0.2486, "crosses_accurate": 0.116, "touches": 11.5581, "possession_lost": 2.9335, "dispossessed": 0.6179, "duels_lost": 2.0238, "aerial_lost": 0.4004, "total_contest": 1.0512, "won_contest": 0.3536, "ball_recovery": 1.1096, "challenges_lost": 0.2438, "fouls": 0.1236, "fouls_drawn": 0.2985, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1006, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "tackles": 0.5458, "clearances": 0.1563, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.139, "big_chances_missed": 0.0495, "xgot": 0.0941, "offsides": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 3.3894, "total_progression": 17.3156, "progressive_carries": 0.7839, "shots_off_target": 0.3294 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0125)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "total_shots": 0.5381, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "key_pass": 0.3905, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 19.61, "total_pass": 6.7597, "accurate_pass": 5.6082, "duels_won": 1.2178, "total_long_balls": 0.2435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2832, "crosses_total": 0.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.116, "touches": 11.5581, "possession_lost": 2.9335, "dispossessed": 0.6179, "duels_lost": 2.0238, "aerial_lost": 0.4004, "total_contest": 1.0512, "won_contest": 0.3536, "ball_recovery": 1.1096, "challenges_lost": 0.2438, "fouls": 0.1245, "fouls_drawn": 0.3022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1056, "tackles_won": 0.3059, "tackles": 0.5458, "clearances": 0.1563, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.139, "big_chances_missed": 0.0495, "xgot": 0.0941, "offsides": 0.0798, "ball_carries": 3.3894, "total_progression": 17.3156, "progressive_carries": 0.7839, "shots_off_target": 0.3294 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0125, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2179, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2486, "after": 0.2567 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.1006, "after": 0.1056 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.6 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0759, "goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "shots_on_target": 0.2735, "total_shots": 0.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "key_pass": 0.5049, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 8.7404, "accurate_pass": 7.2515, "duels_won": 1.5746, "total_long_balls": 0.3148, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1949, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4899, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2452, "crosses_total": 0.3319, "crosses_accurate": 0.15, "touches": 14.9448, "possession_lost": 3.7931, "dispossessed": 0.6179, "duels_lost": 2.6168, "aerial_lost": 0.4004, "total_contest": 1.3592, "won_contest": 0.4572, "ball_recovery": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.2438, "fouls": 0.161, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1365, "tackles_won": 0.3955, "tackles": 0.7057, "clearances": 0.2021, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1797, "big_chances_missed": 0.064, "xgot": 0.1217, "offsides": 0.0798, "ball_carries": 4.3825, "total_progression": 22.3893, "progressive_carries": 1.0136, "shots_off_target": 0.4259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 19.61, "minutes_scale": 1.293, "appearance_probability": 0.335 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0759, "goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "shots_on_target": 0.2735, "total_shots": 0.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "key_pass": 0.5049, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 8.7404, "accurate_pass": 7.2515, "duels_won": 1.5746, "total_long_balls": 0.3148, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1949, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4899, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2452, "crosses_total": 0.3319, "crosses_accurate": 0.15, "touches": 14.9448, "possession_lost": 3.7931, "dispossessed": 0.6179, "duels_lost": 2.6168, "aerial_lost": 0.4004, "total_contest": 1.3592, "won_contest": 0.4572, "ball_recovery": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.2438, "fouls": 0.161, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1365, "tackles_won": 0.3955, "tackles": 0.7057, "clearances": 0.2021, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1797, "big_chances_missed": 0.064, "xgot": 0.1217, "offsides": 0.0798, "ball_carries": 4.3825, "total_progression": 22.3893, "progressive_carries": 1.0136, "shots_off_target": 0.4259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0759, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2735, "total_shots": 0.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "key_pass": 0.5049, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 8.7404, "accurate_pass": 7.2515, "duels_won": 1.5746, "total_long_balls": 0.3148, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1949, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4899, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2452, "crosses_total": 0.3319, "crosses_accurate": 0.15, "touches": 14.9448, "possession_lost": 3.7931, "dispossessed": 0.6179, "duels_lost": 2.6168, "aerial_lost": 0.4004, "total_contest": 1.3592, "won_contest": 0.4572, "ball_recovery": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.2438, "fouls": 0.161, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1365, "tackles_won": 0.3955, "tackles": 0.7057, "clearances": 0.2021, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1797, "big_chances_missed": 0.064, "xgot": 0.1217, "offsides": 0.0798, "ball_carries": 4.3825, "total_progression": 22.3893, "progressive_carries": 1.0136, "shots_off_target": 0.4259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.335, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0759, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2735, "total_shots": 0.6994, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "key_pass": 0.5049, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 8.7404, "accurate_pass": 7.2515, "duels_won": 1.5746, "total_long_balls": 0.3148, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1949, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4899, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2452, "crosses_total": 0.3319, "crosses_accurate": 0.15, "touches": 14.9448, "possession_lost": 3.7931, "dispossessed": 0.6179, "duels_lost": 2.6168, "aerial_lost": 0.4004, "total_contest": 1.3592, "won_contest": 0.4572, "ball_recovery": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.2438, "fouls": 0.161, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1365, "tackles_won": 0.3955, "tackles": 0.7057, "clearances": 0.2021, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1797, "big_chances_missed": 0.064, "xgot": 0.1217, "offsides": 0.0798, "ball_carries": 4.3825, "total_progression": 22.3893, "progressive_carries": 1.0136, "shots_off_target": 0.4259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 224, "fifa_rank": 274.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Nelson Deossa": { "player_id": 1129401, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 185, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0876, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.31, "expected_assists": 0.1789, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0523, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0965, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3441, "combined_rank_score": 1430.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7514, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nelson Deossa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lorenzo Melgarejo", "ranking": 3436 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Chorý", "ranking": 3437 }, { "player_name": "Ferran Jutglà", "ranking": 3438 }, { "player_name": "César Tárrega", "ranking": 3439 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Stassin", "ranking": 3440 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Nwaneri", "ranking": 3444 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Martínez Quarta", "ranking": 3445 }, { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.764, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.57, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0007, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (28 historical appearances) to 19.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.57); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5244, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.0624, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 1.0065, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 16.7, "total_pass": 10.0904, "accurate_pass": 8.4023, "duels_won": 2.2963, "total_long_balls": 0.3425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3231, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3224, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4557, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.08, "crosses_total": 0.086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.9258, "possession_lost": 3.1467, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 1.7111, "aerial_won": 1.0384, "aerial_lost": 0.5, "interceptions": 0.0436, "tackles_won": 0.2839, "tackles": 0.2839, "clearances": 0.2506, "total_contest": 0.9536, "won_contest": 0.7027, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.4501, "fouls_drawn": 0.2712, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1767, "big_chances_missed": 0.1726, "xgot": 0.0952, "ball_carries": 5.3516, "total_progression": 23.1617, "progressive_carries": 0.6911, "shots_off_target": 0.7827 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.7889, "creative_index": 0.3326, "expectedGoals": 0.0679, "expectedAssists": 0.0344, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3931 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5244277715682983, "model_output": 0.5244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3836 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0846, "total": 0.5244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561334 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.072155 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.063637 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.055874 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.044959 } ], "others_margin": 0.175783 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03466497361660004, "model_output": 0.0347, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": 0.0028, "total": 0.0347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510347 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.19872 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.130727 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.071797 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.070841 } ], "others_margin": 0.078009 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0652194619178772, "model_output": 0.0652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": 0.003, "total": 0.0652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.253443 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.167266 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.084448 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.064099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.063368 } ], "others_margin": 0.046068 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06480399519205093, "model_output": 0.0648, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0032 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 0.0648, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.563667 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.134063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100189 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.045642 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.042214 } ], "others_margin": -0.049075 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06241799145936966, "model_output": 0.0624, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.0624, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.562472 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.194183 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.061675 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.057278 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044136 } ], "others_margin": -0.243755 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2237631380558014, "model_output": 0.2238, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 0.2238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.652764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.198181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.078996 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.055041 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.05155 } ], "others_margin": 0.003599 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0064574480056763, "model_output": 1.0065, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4824 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3523 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0339 } ], "others": 0.0739, "total": 1.0065, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.48237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.352301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057342 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.043837 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.033937 } ], "others_margin": 0.07375 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.751354694366455, "model_output": 6.7514, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1017 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 6.7514, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101743 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030681 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012483 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.005938 } ], "others_margin": -0.008037 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0007, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5248, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0653, "assist_rate": 0.0653, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.2239, "total_shots": 1.0072, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 16.7, "total_pass": 10.0975, "accurate_pass": 8.4082, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 0.3427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3233, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.324, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4609, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0843, "crosses_total": 0.0861, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.9369, "possession_lost": 3.1489, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 1.7123, "aerial_won": 1.0391, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.0436, "tackles_won": 0.2841, "tackles": 0.2841, "clearances": 0.2508, "total_contest": 0.9543, "won_contest": 0.7032, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.4504, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 5.3553, "total_progression": 23.1779, "progressive_carries": 0.6916, "shots_off_target": 0.7832 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9800000, "quality_factor": 0.5201, "boost_factor": 1.0007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5248, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0647, "assist_rate": 0.0647, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2231, "total_shots": 1.0053, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 16.7, "total_pass": 10.0975, "accurate_pass": 8.4082, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 0.3427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3233, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.324, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4609, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0843, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.9369, "possession_lost": 3.1489, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 1.7123, "aerial_won": 1.0391, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.0444, "tackles_won": 0.2839, "tackles": 0.2841, "clearances": 0.2508, "total_contest": 0.9543, "won_contest": 0.7032, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.4487, "fouls_drawn": 0.2701, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 5.3553, "total_progression": 23.1779, "progressive_carries": 0.6916, "shots_off_target": 0.7832 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1856, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.7 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0772, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 16.7, "minutes_scale": 1.1934, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0772, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0773, "after": 0.0536 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0414, "after": 0.0287 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3441, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "scorer_weight": 0.0522, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0327, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 1.201, "rating": 6.7514, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 12.0505, "accurate_pass": 10.0345, "duels_won": 2.7423, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3858, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7735, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2611, "crosses_total": 0.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0193, "possession_lost": 3.7579, "dispossessed": 0.3968, "duels_lost": 2.0435, "aerial_won": 1.2401, "aerial_lost": 0.5003, "interceptions": 0.053, "tackles_won": 0.3388, "tackles": 0.339, "clearances": 0.2993, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.8392, "challenges_lost": 0.1277, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.3223, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.211, "big_chances_missed": 0.2061, "xgot": 0.0788, "ball_carries": 6.3911, "total_progression": 27.6608, "progressive_carries": 0.8254, "shots_off_target": 0.9347, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0512, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 0.9733, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "provider_weight": 0.0359, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0354, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Troy Parrott": { "player_id": 966555, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0255, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.2476, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7686, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3679, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0997, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1404, "combined_rank_score": 580.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 87.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.52, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5866, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Troy Parrott", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jerome Abbey", "ranking": 1399 }, { "player_name": "Rayan", "ranking": 1400 }, { "player_name": "Amir Rrahmani", "ranking": 1401 }, { "player_name": "Josep Chavarría", "ranking": 1402 }, { "player_name": "Abde", "ranking": 1403 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anan Khalaili", "ranking": 1405 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo May", "ranking": 1406 }, { "player_name": "Pubill", "ranking": 1407 }, { "player_name": "Bozhidar Kraev", "ranking": 1408 }, { "player_name": "Aïssa Mandi", "ranking": 1409 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.57, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.57, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.544, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0232, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (5 historical appearances) to 22.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.54); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1399, "goals": 0.1595, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "shots_on_target": 0.3588, "total_shots": 0.7587, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3334, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 17.66, "total_pass": 3.9504, "accurate_pass": 2.9504, "duels_won": 0.9417, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2313, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1147, "possession_lost": 3.6696, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7775, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7775, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6113, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3304, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "tackles": 0.6113, "clearances": 0.8921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4595, "xgot": 0.2642, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3887, "total_progression": 9.9566, "progressive_carries": 0.6696, "shots_off_target": 0.3999 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.4106, "expectedGoals": 0.2419, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.7866, "accuratePass": 5.2511, "totalShots": 1.1656 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13993273675441742, "model_output": 0.1399, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 0.1399, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529826 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.172387 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.042599 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.040007 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.034957 } ], "others_margin": -0.019603 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1595018208026886, "model_output": 0.1595, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0716 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.1595, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.433826 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.193121 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.062928 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.060323 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044722 } ], "others_margin": -0.080735 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.35881751775741577, "model_output": 0.3588, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2124 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0037, "total": 0.3588, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502543 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.056338 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.053016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051098 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.029849 } ], "others_margin": 0.010046 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7586708068847656, "model_output": 0.7587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1159 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": -0.0728, "total": 0.7587, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517795 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115936 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.04249 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.026424 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.022523 } ], "others_margin": -0.072876 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.029881635680794716, "model_output": 0.0299, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0299, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.426255 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.167464 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10375 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.101074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.059978 } ], "others_margin": -0.113978 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.33338573575019836, "model_output": 0.3334, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2573 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0241, "total": 0.3334, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.481531 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077288 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057007 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040959 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.023235 } ], "others_margin": -0.069442 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.586633682250977, "model_output": 6.5866, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0538, "total": 6.5866, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061863 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.019097 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017109 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014782 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.013748 } ], "others_margin": -0.053769 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0232, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1432, "goals": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1632, "shots_on_target": 0.3671, "total_shots": 0.7763, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.3411, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 17.66, "total_pass": 4.042, "accurate_pass": 3.0188, "duels_won": 0.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2599, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.3494, "possession_lost": 3.7547, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7955, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7955, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6255, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3381, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2874, "tackles": 0.6255, "clearances": 0.9128, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2703, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4441, "total_progression": 10.1876, "progressive_carries": 0.6851, "shots_off_target": 0.4092 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0232, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0173)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1432, "goals": 0.1604, "goal_rate": 0.1604, "shots_on_target": 0.3607, "total_shots": 0.7749, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.3411, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 17.66, "total_pass": 4.042, "accurate_pass": 3.0188, "duels_won": 0.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2599, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.3494, "possession_lost": 3.7547, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7955, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7955, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6255, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.3322, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2952, "tackles": 0.6255, "clearances": 0.9128, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2703, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 2.4441, "total_progression": 10.1876, "progressive_carries": 0.6851, "shots_off_target": 0.4092 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0173, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1962, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2874, "after": 0.2952 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3671, "after": 0.3607 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3381, "after": 0.3322 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goals": 0.2069, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.3487, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 17.66, "minutes_scale": 1.2899, "appearance_probability": 0.544 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goals": 0.2069, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.3487, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.3487, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.544 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1847, "after": 0.1221 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0395, "after": 0.0261 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1404, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "scorer_weight": 0.1337, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0838, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "appearance_weight": 0.544, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1221, "goal_rate": 0.2069, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4653, "total_shots": 0.9996, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.44, "rating": 6.5866, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 5.2139, "accurate_pass": 3.894, "duels_won": 1.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6252, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.3499, "possession_lost": 4.8433, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0261, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0261, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8068, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0054, "fouls_drawn": 0.4285, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3808, "tackles": 0.8068, "clearances": 1.1774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2306, "offsides": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 3.1527, "total_progression": 13.1412, "progressive_carries": 0.8837, "shots_off_target": 0.5278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0255, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0209, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0206, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.544, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Sergi Altimira": { "player_id": 1137814, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 188, "market_value": 19300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083657, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081801, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1412, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081791, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083509, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083263, "match_date": "2026-02-08", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 771, "combined_rank_score": 519.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9667, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 664.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7321, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergi Altimira", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Araújo", "ranking": 766 }, { "player_name": "Han Tae-Hee", "ranking": 767 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Lobotka", "ranking": 768 }, { "player_name": "Pierre-Emile Højbjerg", "ranking": 769 }, { "player_name": "James Tarkowski", "ranking": 770 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joshua Oluwayemi", "ranking": 772 }, { "player_name": "Eric Bailly", "ranking": 773 }, { "player_name": "Bobir Abdikholikov", "ranking": 774 }, { "player_name": "Saidazamat Mirsaidov", "ranking": 775 }, { "player_name": "Yuri Alberto", "ranking": 776 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 24, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71152221225244, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5323419187387474, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0062, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (24 historical appearances) to 22.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2528, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.0337, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.02, "goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0709, "total_shots": 0.2705, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 21.69, "total_pass": 13.2726, "accurate_pass": 12.0672, "duels_won": 1.8123, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3671, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7843, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.131, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9363, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.0564, "possession_lost": 2.1098, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.3742, "aerial_won": 0.4985, "aerial_lost": 0.0417, "interceptions": 0.4232, "tackles_won": 0.6325, "tackles": 0.668, "clearances": 0.6243, "total_contest": 0.2826, "won_contest": 0.1295, "challenges_lost": 0.6254, "fouls": 0.2481, "fouls_drawn": 0.5654, "blocks": 0.1106, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.03, "ball_carries": 4.3162, "total_progression": 7.7482, "progressive_carries": 0.1279, "shots_off_target": 0.1996 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1531, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1301, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1106, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.094, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0799, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0679, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0577, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0491, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0355, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4955, "creative_index": 0.1658, "expectedGoals": 0.0163, "expectedAssists": 0.0247, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2355 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2528066039085388, "model_output": 0.2528, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3829 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0632 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": -0.0917, "total": 0.2528, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559974 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.132258 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.11317 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.099339 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047887 } ], "others_margin": -0.309314 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.019824227318167686, "model_output": 0.0198, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0198, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506657 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.246188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.169245 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.150946 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.070607 } ], "others_margin": -0.319606 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.033735454082489014, "model_output": 0.0337, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.0337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.257155 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.112979 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101459 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.084225 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.074457 } ], "others_margin": -0.319858 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.019988104701042175, "model_output": 0.02, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.02, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517394 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.444494 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190861 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091669 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.075681 } ], "others_margin": -0.231193 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.02729141339659691, "model_output": 0.0273, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.0273, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444854 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.24982 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.164653 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093554 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.056108 } ], "others_margin": -0.267247 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07091367244720459, "model_output": 0.0709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.0709, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.61158 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.256902 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.185229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.16847 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034923 } ], "others_margin": -0.2675 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27051982283592224, "model_output": 0.2705, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3308 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0223 } ], "others": -0.1192, "total": 0.2705, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.330813 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185799 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039806 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027114 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022339 } ], "others_margin": -0.119143 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.732085227966309, "model_output": 6.7321, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.098 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 6.7321, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098003 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.006513 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.006314 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.006308 } ], "others_margin": -0.015439 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2544, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assists": 0.0339, "assist_rate": 0.0339, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.0714, "total_shots": 0.2722, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 21.69, "total_pass": 13.3549, "accurate_pass": 12.142, "duels_won": 1.8235, "total_long_balls": 0.4113, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3694, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9731, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1683, "possession_lost": 2.1229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.3827, "aerial_won": 0.5016, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4258, "tackles_won": 0.6364, "tackles": 0.6721, "clearances": 0.6282, "total_contest": 0.2844, "won_contest": 0.1303, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2496, "fouls_drawn": 0.5689, "blocks": 0.1113, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0302, "ball_carries": 4.343, "total_progression": 7.7962, "progressive_carries": 0.1287, "shots_off_target": 0.2008 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goals": 0.0288, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.71, "projection_minutes": 21.69, "minutes_scale": 1.0471, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goals": 0.0288, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.49 (squad xG sum 1.2283, xG scale 1.2155, xA scale 1.2155, team xA 1.08 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.493, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8898, "team_expected_assists": 1.0815, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7244, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2155, "xa_scale": 1.2155, "opponent_lambda": 3.815, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.021, "after": 0.0136 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0208, "after": 0.0135 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 771, "fifa_rank": 664.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "scorer_weight": 0.0151, "squad_weight_total": 1.5951, "weight_share": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3408, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3046 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2664, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0748, "total_shots": 0.2851, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 4.5475, "total_progression": 8.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.1348, "shots_off_target": 0.2103, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.332, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 1.1099, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "provider_weight": 0.0163, "squad_weight_total": 1.0141, "weight_share": 0.0161, "creation_factor": 1.2076, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1632, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1632, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1421, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.49, "expected_assists": 1.08, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 479, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.98, "possession_estimated_pct": 45.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } }, "Barcelona": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Gerard Martín": { "player_id": 1094827, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 186, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 75, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 92, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 31, "total_progression": 122, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0976, "finishing_factor": 0.8052, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 100, "accurate_pass": 88, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 66, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 82, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1036, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 95, "accurate_pass": 93, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 104, "accurate_pass": 96, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 83, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 79, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1191, "combined_rank_score": 525.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 108.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 942.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1658, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 }, { "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking": 1187 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Nurullaev", "ranking": 1193 }, { "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking": 1194 }, { "player_name": "Choi Hee-won", "ranking": 1195 }, { "player_name": "Murodbek Rahmatov", "ranking": 1196 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0086, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0872, "tackles": 1.2282, "tackles_won": 0.7488, "clearances": 4.9697, "aerial_won": 1.8753, "total_shots": 0.3601, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 79.8136, "accurate_pass": 73.87, "duels_won": 2.7499, "total_long_balls": 4.3043, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7852, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6211, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4237, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.1925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.4463, "crosses_total": 0.1328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0236, "touches": 91.4143, "possession_lost": 6.5625, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 2.0899, "aerial_lost": 0.8906, "total_contest": 0.1819, "won_contest": 0.177, "ball_recovery": 2.5146, "challenges_lost": 0.1668, "fouls": 1.0339, "fouls_drawn": 0.3146, "blocks": 0.3502, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.1067, "big_chances_created": 0.1518, "xgot": 0.0148, "ball_carries": 30.8597, "total_progression": 121.2741, "progressive_carries": 0.8773, "key_pass": 0.222, "shots_off_target": 0.2534 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.2095, "aerialWon": 1.5609, "totalClearance_p90": 6.4331, "totalTackle": 1.0449, "defensive_actions": 2.1015 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.087226152420044, "model_output": 1.0872, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1148 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 1.0872, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125225 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.04232 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02941 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.026683 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.019676 } ], "others_margin": -0.009877 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2282370328903198, "model_output": 1.2282, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1741 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0685 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0594 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0388 } ], "others": -0.1282, "total": 1.2282, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117913 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.044726 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.040463 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.029986 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.028166 } ], "others_margin": -0.099379 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7487568855285645, "model_output": 0.7488, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1055 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": -0.0677, "total": 0.7488, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116481 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.046045 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.044639 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.039933 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.030944 } ], "others_margin": -0.086632 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.969730854034424, "model_output": 4.9697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5222 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.338 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0934 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0843 } ], "others": 0.0825, "total": 4.9697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.202864 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117068 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.069057 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.018622 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.017093 } ], "others_margin": 0.016733 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.875328540802002, "model_output": 1.8753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1263 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0978 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0791 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0743 } ], "others": 0.193, "total": 1.8753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.087735 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.062996 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.046446 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.046054 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.043215 } ], "others_margin": 0.108633 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.360083669424057, "model_output": 0.3601, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1059 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 0.3601, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.105936 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.038195 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025986 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.012977 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012957 } ], "others_margin": -0.046728 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.165812015533447, "model_output": 7.1658, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1095 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0706 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": 0.0872, "total": 7.1658, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.109484 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.070625 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.052028 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.03248 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02932 } ], "others_margin": 0.087171 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0966, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7552, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3632, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0428, "fouls_drawn": 0.3173, "blocks": 0.3532, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "expected_assists": 0.056, "shots_on_target": 0.1076, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0149, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "expected_assists": 0.056, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0149, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9288, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0428, "after": 1.0371 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "expected_assists": 0.056, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0149, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "expected_assists": 0.056, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0149, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "expected_assists": 0.056, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0149, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8052, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0121, "after": 0.0196 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.056, "after": 0.1027 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8052, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1191, "fifa_rank": 942.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8052, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0158, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.0038, "finishing_factor": 0.8052, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0995, "tackles": 1.2388, "tackles_won": 0.7523, "clearances": 5.0125, "aerial_won": 1.8915, "total_shots": 0.3642, "rating": 7.1658, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 80.5, "accurate_pass": 74.5053, "duels_won": 2.7735, "total_long_balls": 4.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 42.9876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.7339, "crosses_total": 0.1326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 92.2005, "possession_lost": 6.6189, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.1079, "aerial_lost": 0.8983, "total_contest": 0.1835, "won_contest": 0.1785, "ball_recovery": 2.5362, "challenges_lost": 0.1682, "fouls": 1.0371, "fouls_drawn": 0.3187, "blocks": 0.3532, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "shots_on_target": 0.1065, "big_chances_created": 0.1531, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 31.1251, "total_progression": 122.3171, "progressive_carries": 0.8848, "key_pass": 0.2239, "shots_off_target": 0.2556, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0976, "finishing_factor": 0.8052, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0976, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0822, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.031, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "player_id": 1402913, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 184, "market_value": 94000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 95, "accurate_pass": 90, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 57, "accurate_own_half_passes": 55, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 106, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0691, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 33, "total_progression": 143, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0668, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0363, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 90, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 114, "accurate_pass": 109, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "expected_assists": 0.023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 110, "accurate_pass": 100, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3941, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 107, "accurate_pass": 102, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 57, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 75, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 79, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 13, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083245, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 94, "accurate_pass": 90, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 117, "accurate_pass": 114, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 57, "combined_rank_score": 69.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 62.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 76.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.205, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 }, { "player_name": "Frenkie de Jong", "ranking": 59 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Paquetá", "ranking": 60 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking": 61 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0141, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1433, "tackles": 1.244, "tackles_won": 0.6808, "clearances": 5.298, "aerial_won": 2.8261, "total_shots": 0.4061, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 93.232, "accurate_pass": 88.4266, "duels_won": 4.3877, "total_long_balls": 4.7926, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6341, "total_own_half_passes": 55.9747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 53.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.2573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.4428, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 104.7195, "possession_lost": 5.6091, "dispossessed": 0.0663, "duels_lost": 2.2562, "aerial_lost": 1.3177, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0205, "challenges_lost": 0.2682, "fouls": 0.6189, "fouls_drawn": 0.2347, "blocks": 0.3428, "goals": 0.0112, "goal_rate": 0.0112, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "shots_on_target": 0.0207, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0047, "ball_carries": 32.8084, "total_progression": 141.1607, "progressive_carries": 1.2461, "key_pass": 0.035, "shots_off_target": 0.3854 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.2744, "aerialWon": 2.7383, "totalClearance_p90": 5.5457, "totalTackle": 1.4137, "defensive_actions": 2.5149 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1432617902755737, "model_output": 1.1433, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1096 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": 0.0394, "total": 1.1433, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119791 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.057666 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.028399 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.023934 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018833 } ], "others_margin": 0.03507 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2439998388290405, "model_output": 1.244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1728 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0455 } ], "others": -0.2018, "total": 1.244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117077 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043519 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.036987 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.0327 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.030976 } ], "others_margin": -0.150349 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.680765688419342, "model_output": 0.6808, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1015 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0272 } ], "others": -0.1189, "total": 0.6808, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112307 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.059628 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.049594 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.035562 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.033398 } ], "others_margin": -0.161033 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.298017978668213, "model_output": 5.298, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7315 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5117 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2626 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1752 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1627 } ], "others": 0.0216, "total": 5.298, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.193185 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115892 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.054638 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.034867 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.031312 } ], "others_margin": 0.004082 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.8261449337005615, "model_output": 2.8261, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5721 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.2044 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2105 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1129 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.105 } ], "others": 0.2439, "total": 2.8261, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.347406 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.099699 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093231 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.046659 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.041508 } ], "others_margin": 0.090276 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.40610605478286743, "model_output": 0.4061, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0564, "total": 0.4061, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033354 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.023754 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022523 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016989 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.016115 } ], "others_margin": -0.056346 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.204978942871094, "model_output": 7.205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1154 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0714 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0329 } ], "others": 0.1108, "total": 7.205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115415 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.07145 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.054203 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035634 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032874 } ], "others_margin": 0.1107 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0141, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1594, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6904, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4118, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.6276, "fouls_drawn": 0.238, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0114, "goal_rate": 0.0114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.021, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 94000000, "quality_factor": 0.891, "boost_factor": 1.0141, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9471, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6904, "after": 0.6981 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1594, "after": 1.1522 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4118, "after": 0.4175 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0691, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0427, "after": 0.0691 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0202, "after": 0.037 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0691, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 57, "fifa_rank": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0691, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0668, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "scorer_weight": 0.0553, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.0134, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1522, "tackles": 1.2615, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.3727, "aerial_won": 2.866, "total_shots": 0.4175, "rating": 7.205, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0691, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.3908, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0668, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0363, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0296, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0112, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jules Koundé": { "player_id": 827212, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 180, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 76, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 102, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.2308, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2822, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 82, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2482, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2061, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 0.9261, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8137, "expected_assists": 0.0953, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 87, "accurate_pass": 82, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 75, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 82, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083245, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.1141, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 82, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 540, "combined_rank_score": 301.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 444.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9033, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 159.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0659, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jules Koundé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Evan Ndicka", "ranking": 535 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Lima", "ranking": 536 }, { "player_name": "Eder Aller", "ranking": 537 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Leão", "ranking": 538 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zaccagni", "ranking": 539 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rafa Romero", "ranking": 541 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Odilov", "ranking": 542 }, { "player_name": "Hyeok-chan Son", "ranking": 543 }, { "player_name": "Min-ho Yoon", "ranking": 544 }, { "player_name": "Akmal Muzaffarov", "ranking": 545 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0129, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 112.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8889, "tackles": 1.4812, "tackles_won": 0.876, "clearances": 1.9967, "aerial_won": 1.018, "total_shots": 0.5615, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 79.8178, "accurate_pass": 74.5797, "duels_won": 4.184, "total_long_balls": 2.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3325, "total_own_half_passes": 35.5274, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.677, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.2905, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 39.9028, "crosses_total": 1.3485, "crosses_accurate": 0.3845, "touches": 101.0299, "possession_lost": 9.3744, "dispossessed": 0.6168, "duels_lost": 3.8821, "aerial_lost": 1.1378, "total_contest": 1.5861, "won_contest": 1.1206, "ball_recovery": 3.7729, "challenges_lost": 0.6748, "fouls": 1.1097, "fouls_drawn": 0.7476, "blocks": 0.4113, "goals": 0.1565, "goal_rate": 0.1565, "assists": 0.1122, "assist_rate": 0.1122, "expected_goals": 0.174, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.4454, "big_chances_created": 0.4107, "xgot": 0.1721, "ball_carries": 23.1127, "total_progression": 80.6379, "progressive_carries": 0.9512, "key_pass": 1.0867, "shots_off_target": 0.1161 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.3717, "aerialWon": 0.8649, "totalClearance_p90": 2.279, "totalTackle": 1.034, "defensive_actions": 1.8638 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8888943195343018, "model_output": 0.8889, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1201 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.8889, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130625 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041358 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.038068 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.036393 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.021177 } ], "others_margin": -0.003954 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.4811736345291138, "model_output": 1.4812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1743 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0987 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0732 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0413 } ], "others": -0.0617, "total": 1.4812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118033 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.065106 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.04869 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.028129 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.026382 } ], "others_margin": -0.040916 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8760347366333008, "model_output": 0.876, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0958 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0274 } ], "others": 0.0085, "total": 0.876, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106253 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.063701 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.046454 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.0426 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.031085 } ], "others_margin": 0.009959 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.996655821800232, "model_output": 1.9967, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8263 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3438 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2689 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2151 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1406 } ], "others": -0.3289, "total": 1.9967, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.275376 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123916 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.095558 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.083617 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.058696 } ], "others_margin": -0.152551 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0179738998413086, "model_output": 1.018, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1453 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1376 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1168 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0853 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 1.018, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.258976 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128081 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.120899 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.11555 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.085647 } ], "others_margin": -0.020622 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5615105032920837, "model_output": 0.5615, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 0.5615, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027946 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024362 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.020535 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.010395 } ], "others_margin": 0.002619 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.065871238708496, "model_output": 7.0659, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0637 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0285, "total": 7.0659, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.099656 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.063749 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.040543 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03476 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014049 } ], "others_margin": 0.028411 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9004, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8873, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5688, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.3659, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.124, "fouls_drawn": 0.7572, "blocks": 0.4166, "goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.1585, "assists": 0.1136, "assist_rate": 0.1136, "expected_goals": 0.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1259, "shots_on_target": 0.4511, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.1743, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0129, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0065)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5651, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goals": 0.1575, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0.1129, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "expected_goals": 0.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1259, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.1743, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0065, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9701, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3659, "after": 1.357 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9004, "after": 0.8945 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8873, "after": 0.8815 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5658, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goals": 0.1575, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0.1129, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "expected_goals": 0.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1259, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.1743, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5658, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goals": 0.1575, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0.1129, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "expected_goals": 0.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1259, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.1743, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5658, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1762, "expected_assists": 0.1259, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.1743, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5658, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.2308, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.2822, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 0.9261 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1762, "after": 0.2853 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1259, "after": 0.2308 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5658, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.2308, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.2822, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 0.9261, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 540, "fifa_rank": 159.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5658, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.2308, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.2822, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2482, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 0.9261, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2482, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "scorer_weight": 0.2617, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.0633, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8945, "tackles": 1.5003, "tackles_won": 0.8815, "clearances": 2.0224, "aerial_won": 1.0311, "total_shots": 0.5658, "rating": 7.0659, "minutes": 87.31, "total_pass": 80.8474, "accurate_pass": 75.5418, "duels_won": 4.238, "total_long_balls": 2.5672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3497, "total_own_half_passes": 35.9857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1243, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4175, "crosses_total": 1.357, "crosses_accurate": 0.3895, "touches": 102.3332, "possession_lost": 9.4953, "dispossessed": 0.6248, "duels_lost": 3.9322, "aerial_lost": 1.1525, "total_contest": 1.6066, "won_contest": 1.1351, "ball_recovery": 3.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.6835, "fouls": 1.1219, "fouls_drawn": 0.7575, "blocks": 0.4166, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.2308, "shots_on_target": 0.4482, "big_chances_created": 0.416, "xgot": 0.2822, "ball_carries": 23.4109, "total_progression": 81.6781, "progressive_carries": 0.9635, "key_pass": 1.1007, "shots_off_target": 0.1176, "opponent_faced": "Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2482, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2061, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 0.9261, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2061, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "provider_weight": 0.2137, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0806, "creation_factor": 0.9261, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Joan García": { "player_id": 930267, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 34, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4843, "shots_faced": 14.2, "expected_saves": 3.48, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2256 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6184 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.4648 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.558 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2351 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 15 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2641 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1397 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0412 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0882 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 123, "combined_rank_score": 114.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 140.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.34, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 89.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0568, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking": 122 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "João Neves", "ranking": 127 }, { "player_name": "Davron Merganov", "ranking": 128 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0109, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8299, "goals_prevented": 0.0707, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.4207, "accurate_pass": 20.917, "total_long_balls": 4.6995, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3581, "touches": 33.5872, "clearances": 1.1518, "ball_recovery": 8.8763, "high_claims": 0.7993, "punches": 0.1528, "aerial_won": 0.3105, "sweeper_actions": 1.8548, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8548, "saves_inside_box": 1.1759, "possession_lost": 2.5583, "duels_won": 0.3888, "duels_lost": 0.1129, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1365 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 2.3581, "save_contribution": 1.9117, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9491, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 20.1365, "passValueNormalized": 0.0878, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 21.1802 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.829892873764038, "model_output": 2.8299, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1159 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0207 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 2.8299, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.040203 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.011483 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.008596 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.007945 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.007378 } ], "others_margin": 0.006434 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.07071755081415176, "model_output": 0.0707, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 0.0707, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.045476 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.027775 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.021329 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.014166 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.013987 } ], "others_margin": 0.004071 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.05683708190918, "model_output": 7.0568, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0247, "total": 7.0568, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04446 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.027472 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.026503 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024355 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.015577 } ], "others_margin": 0.02472 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8607, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1204, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0155)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0155, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9393, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8607, "after": 2.8407 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4843, "shots_faced": 14.1, "expected_saves": 3.45, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4843 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4843, "shots_faced": 14.1, "expected_saves": 3.45, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4843, "shots_faced": 14.2, "expected_saves": 3.48, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.1, "after": 14.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.45, "after": 3.48 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4843, "shots_faced": 14.2, "expected_saves": 3.48, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 123, "fifa_rank": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4843, "shots_faced": 14.2, "expected_saves": 3.48, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8407, "goals_prevented": 0.0715, "rating": 7.0568, "minutes": 84.54, "total_pass": 23.676, "accurate_pass": 21.145, "total_long_balls": 4.7507, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3838, "touches": 33.9533, "clearances": 1.1644, "ball_recovery": 8.9731, "high_claims": 0.808, "punches": 0.1545, "aerial_won": 0.3139, "sweeper_actions": 1.875, "sweeper_accurate": 1.875, "saves_inside_box": 1.1887, "possession_lost": 2.5862, "duels_won": 0.393, "duels_lost": 0.1141, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1185, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.356, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4843, "shots_faced": 14.2, "expected_saves": 3.48, "high_pressure_saves": 1.19, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Xavi Espart": { "player_id": 1546073, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 175, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 31, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 77, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.1669, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1948, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1537, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0522, "expected_assists": 0.1661, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0517, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 47, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.1289, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.2513, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 5.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083662, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083617, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6552, "combined_rank_score": 4868.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 9401.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8488, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Xavi Espart", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stanley Nsoki", "ranking": 6547 }, { "player_name": "Hong Hyun Seok", "ranking": 6548 }, { "player_name": "Łukasz Poręba", "ranking": 6549 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Čvančara", "ranking": 6550 }, { "player_name": "Leonidas Stergiou", "ranking": 6551 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximilian Rohr", "ranking": 6553 }, { "player_name": "Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer", "ranking": 6554 }, { "player_name": "William Bøving", "ranking": 6555 }, { "player_name": "Sander Tangvik", "ranking": 6556 }, { "player_name": "Manu Bueno", "ranking": 6557 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 10, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0181, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.6666666666666666, "shots_per90": 0.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 10 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.6666666666666666)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1439, "tackles": 1.9813, "tackles_won": 1.1903, "clearances": 2.3416, "aerial_won": 0.9151, "total_shots": 0.8106, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 52.3435, "accurate_pass": 46.688, "duels_won": 6.4855, "total_long_balls": 2.6299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8313, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5691, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.9634, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.1189, "crosses_total": 0.7224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1152, "touches": 75.6967, "possession_lost": 10.0501, "dispossessed": 0.6062, "duels_lost": 3.4505, "aerial_lost": 0.6292, "total_contest": 1.5186, "won_contest": 1.0515, "ball_recovery": 5.3675, "challenges_lost": 0.4763, "fouls": 1.4312, "fouls_drawn": 0.9815, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1877, "goal_rate": 0.1877, "assists": 0.2335, "assist_rate": 0.2335, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.3029, "big_chances_created": 0.3488, "xgot": 0.1182, "ball_carries": 16.1021, "total_progression": 60.5666, "progressive_carries": 1.2778, "key_pass": 0.7051, "shots_off_target": 0.5077 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1868, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1588, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1349, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1147, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0975, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0829, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0704, "rating": 5.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0599, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0509, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0433, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 10.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.4491, "aerialWon": 1.0162, "totalClearance_p90": 2.6892, "totalTackle": 2.9024, "defensive_actions": 4.0305 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1439462900161743, "model_output": 1.1439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1142 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0683 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": 0.1051, "total": 1.1439, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124574 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.067665 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.037177 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.021381 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.020186 } ], "others_margin": 0.096441 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.9813357591629028, "model_output": 1.9813, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2072 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1129 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1166 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.1026 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.085 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 1.9813, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138809 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.068232 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.065905 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.054606 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.043066 } ], "others_margin": -0.017233 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.1902570724487305, "model_output": 1.1903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1285 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0702 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0578 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0577 } ], "others": 0.0715, "total": 1.1903, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140164 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.064989 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.064819 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.053006 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.052923 } ], "others_margin": 0.06191 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.341606378555298, "model_output": 2.3416, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.4959 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3823 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2783 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2235 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.066 } ], "others": -0.4097, "total": 2.3416, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.156026 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087585 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.076328 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.02372 } ], "others_margin": -0.161231 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9150896072387695, "model_output": 0.9151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1999 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1455 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0938 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0802 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0499 } ], "others": -0.1839, "total": 0.9151, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.15681 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116519 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.073582 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.067484 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.044364 } ], "others_margin": -0.183146 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8106386065483093, "model_output": 0.8106, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1937 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 0.8106, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.193683 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061718 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.037751 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022368 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021179 } ], "others_margin": -0.000561 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.848800182342529, "model_output": 6.8488, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0503 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 6.8488, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05032 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.042608 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042282 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019029 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018161 } ], "others_margin": -0.02374 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0181, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1647, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2118, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.8253, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7355, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4571, "fouls_drawn": 0.9993, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1911, "goal_rate": 0.1911, "assists": 0.2377, "assist_rate": 0.2377, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "expected_assists": 0.091, "shots_on_target": 0.3084, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1203, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0181, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.8181, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1828, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "assists": 0.2558, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "expected_assists": 0.091, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1203, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9838, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9993, "after": 0.9702 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7355, "after": 0.7605 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1647, "after": 1.1853 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4571, "after": 1.4366 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2377, "after": 0.2558 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1911, "after": 0.1828 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8253, "after": 0.8181 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.826, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1828, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "assists": 0.2558, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "expected_assists": 0.091, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1203, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.826, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1828, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "assists": 0.2558, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "expected_assists": 0.091, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1203, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Isco", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.826, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "expected_assists": 0.091, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1203, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.826, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.1669, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1948, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0347, "after": 0.0562 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.091, "after": 0.1669 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.826, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.1669, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1948, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6552, "fifa_rank": 9401.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.826, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.1669, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1948, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "scorer_weight": 0.0703, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.017, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1853, "tackles": 2.0172, "tackles_won": 1.2161, "clearances": 2.384, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.826, "rating": 6.8488, "minutes": 88.54, "total_pass": 53.2909, "accurate_pass": 47.5331, "duels_won": 6.6029, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8463, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9414, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.5057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.5917, "crosses_total": 0.7605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1173, "touches": 77.0668, "possession_lost": 10.232, "dispossessed": 0.6172, "duels_lost": 3.513, "aerial_lost": 0.6406, "total_contest": 1.5461, "won_contest": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 5.4647, "challenges_lost": 0.4849, "fouls": 1.4366, "fouls_drawn": 0.9702, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1828, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.1669, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "xgot": 0.1948, "ball_carries": 16.3935, "total_progression": 61.6629, "progressive_carries": 1.3009, "key_pass": 0.7179, "shots_off_target": 0.5169, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1537, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1537, "assist_rate": 0.2558, "provider_weight": 0.2086, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0786, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rodri": { "player_id": 827606, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 191, "market_value": 54000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2598, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 95, "accurate_pass": 88, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 35, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 61, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 109, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 34, "total_progression": 128, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1744, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2288, "finishing_factor": 0.8301, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 9.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.344, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 124, "accurate_pass": 119, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6712, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0576, "expected_assists": 0.3232, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0662, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 117, "accurate_pass": 111, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0795, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 81, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3227, "expected_assists": 0.1302, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025039, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.1522, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 69, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023998, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 102, "accurate_pass": 95, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 50, "combined_rank_score": 60.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 113.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.43, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 8.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.5429, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bukayo Saka", "ranking": 45 }, { "player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking": 46 }, { "player_name": "Ayrton Lucas", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.756, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.756, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0151, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 55.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 28 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.04, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2552, "expected_assists": 0.1396, "assists": 0.0855, "assist_rate": 0.0855, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.0718, "shots_on_target": 0.2147, "total_shots": 0.9142, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 93.9823, "accurate_pass": 87.1448, "duels_won": 5.7697, "total_long_balls": 7.6519, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1021, "total_own_half_passes": 34.0251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6514, "total_opp_half_passes": 59.9572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 55.4934, "crosses_total": 0.4032, "crosses_accurate": 0.0187, "touches": 107.0088, "possession_lost": 9.0722, "dispossessed": 0.3522, "duels_lost": 2.5107, "aerial_won": 1.7638, "aerial_lost": 0.5696, "interceptions": 1.3111, "tackles_won": 1.7385, "tackles": 2.4922, "clearances": 1.8072, "total_contest": 0.4864, "won_contest": 0.2429, "challenges_lost": 0.7521, "fouls": 0.5933, "fouls_drawn": 1.2708, "blocks": 0.0812, "big_chances_created": 0.2534, "big_chances_missed": 0.1312, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 33.6843, "total_progression": 125.8178, "progressive_carries": 1.7133, "shots_off_target": 0.6995 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8506, "creative_index": 0.5707, "expectedGoals": 0.1308, "expectedAssists": 0.1559, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0759 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2551853656768799, "model_output": 1.2552, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1228 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1004 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1035 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0735 } ], "others": -0.0246, "total": 1.2552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12883 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.123567 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.083711 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.07954 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.055851 } ], "others_margin": -0.019325 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1395501345396042, "model_output": 0.1396, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0202, "total": 0.1396, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.141585 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.088595 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.086058 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.050531 } ], "others_margin": 0.156672 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08549194037914276, "model_output": 0.0855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.0855, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.130553 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10741 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.097828 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07881 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.072958 } ], "others_margin": -0.051058 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09425965696573257, "model_output": 0.0943, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0943, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.230475 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114695 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.087136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.083925 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.056808 } ], "others_margin": -0.117678 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07183653861284256, "model_output": 0.0718, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 0.0718, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.216596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.178814 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.135467 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.125728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.07748 } ], "others_margin": -0.086919 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2147274911403656, "model_output": 0.2147, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": -0.0679, "total": 0.2147, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.192918 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.157581 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.150105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117246 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.073925 } ], "others_margin": -0.274578 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9142475724220276, "model_output": 0.9142, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1439 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0285 } ], "others": -0.1376, "total": 0.9142, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143926 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.060694 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.037124 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.035535 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028506 } ], "others_margin": -0.137603 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.542913913726807, "model_output": 7.5429, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.205 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.129 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0442 } ], "others": 0.2027, "total": 7.5429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.205003 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129018 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.064044 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.044856 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.044224 } ], "others_margin": 0.202713 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.1417, "assists": 0.0868, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.0729, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.218, "total_shots": 0.9281, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.7904, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3309, "tackles_won": 1.7648, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.6023, "fouls_drawn": 1.29, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.7101 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.0151, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.1417, "assists": 0.0865, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.2171, "total_shots": 0.9244, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.7904, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.7101 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0039, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8983, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.7648, "after": 1.7578 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3309, "after": 1.3257 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.29, "after": 1.2849 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.1417, "assists": 0.0865, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.2171, "total_shots": 0.9272, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.7904, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.7101 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.1417, "assists": 0.0865, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 1.1459, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1646, "xgot": 0.0263, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.8776, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "skill_edge": 0.1445, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.8599, "defender_skill": 0.5389, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "market_value": 9700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5389 } ], "xg_override": 0.1183 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.7904, "after": 1.3 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9272, "after": 1.1459 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7101, "after": 0.8776 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2171, "after": 0.2683 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1332, "after": 0.1646 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0957, "after": 0.1183 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0726, "after": 0.0897 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0213, "after": 0.0263 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.1417, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 1.1459, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1646, "xgot": 0.0263, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.8776, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.2598, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 1.1459, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1646, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.8776, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8301, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1183, "after": 0.1916 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1417, "after": 0.2598 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.2598, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 1.1459, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1646, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.8776, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8301, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 50, "fifa_rank": 8.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.2598, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 1.1459, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1646, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.8776, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1744, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8301, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "scorer_weight": 0.159, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.0385, "finishing_factor": 0.8301, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2741, "expected_assists": 0.2598, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2683, "total_shots": 1.1459, "rating": 7.5429, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 95.4014, "accurate_pass": 88.4607, "duels_won": 5.8568, "total_long_balls": 7.7674, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 34.5389, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.1293, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.8626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.3314, "crosses_total": 0.4077, "crosses_accurate": 0.019, "touches": 108.6246, "possession_lost": 9.2092, "dispossessed": 0.3575, "duels_lost": 2.5486, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5782, "interceptions": 1.3257, "tackles_won": 1.7578, "tackles": 2.5298, "clearances": 1.8345, "total_contest": 0.4937, "won_contest": 0.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 1.2849, "blocks": 0.0824, "big_chances_created": 0.2572, "big_chances_missed": 0.1646, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 34.1929, "total_progression": 127.7176, "progressive_carries": 1.7392, "shots_off_target": 0.8776, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1744, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2288, "finishing_factor": 0.8301, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2288, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "provider_weight": 0.2078, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0784, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Fermín López": { "player_id": 1153270, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 176, "market_value": 113000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4427, "goal_rate": 0.31, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.075, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2561, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "expected_assists": 0.034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "expected_assists": 0.1037, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 8.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.3788, "expected_assists": 0.4771, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3051, "expected_assists": 0.0748, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0318, "expected_assists": 0.0498, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0127, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2671, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0729, "expected_assists": 0.1647, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.211, "expected_assists": 0.2971, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 33, "combined_rank_score": 28.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2076, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fermín López", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Romo", "ranking": 28 }, { "player_name": "Michael Olise", "ranking": 29 }, { "player_name": "Marko Arnautović", "ranking": 30 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "ranking": 31 }, { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 32 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bianneider Tamayo", "ranking": 34 }, { "player_name": "Virgil van Dijk", "ranking": 35 }, { "player_name": "Remo Freuler", "ranking": 36 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cunat Campos", "ranking": 37 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cuñat", "ranking": 38 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.773, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.014, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 207.0, "goals_per90": 1.3043478260869563, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.61, "shots_on_target_pct": 83.3, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 1.3043478260869563, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8262, "expected_assists": 0.1592, "assists": 0.1558, "assist_rate": 0.1558, "expected_goals": 0.2299, "goals": 0.2501, "goal_rate": 0.2501, "shots_on_target": 0.9491, "total_shots": 2.2107, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.1002, "accurate_pass": 32.3006, "duels_won": 4.6358, "total_long_balls": 2.1712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9068, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4357, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9608, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3398, "crosses_total": 1.4724, "crosses_accurate": 0.3657, "touches": 55.8768, "possession_lost": 12.7958, "dispossessed": 1.51, "duels_lost": 6.2535, "aerial_won": 0.5633, "aerial_lost": 0.6241, "interceptions": 0.3578, "tackles_won": 0.6777, "tackles": 1.5154, "clearances": 0.4142, "total_contest": 2.8084, "won_contest": 1.594, "challenges_lost": 1.1547, "fouls": 1.8108, "fouls_drawn": 0.963, "blocks": 0.1414, "big_chances_created": 0.4929, "big_chances_missed": 0.2182, "xgot": 0.5582, "ball_carries": 14.1934, "total_progression": 49.5748, "progressive_carries": 1.9845, "shots_off_target": 1.2616 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.9387, "creative_index": 0.6899, "expectedGoals": 0.274, "expectedAssists": 0.1225, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.894 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.826157569885254, "model_output": 1.8262, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1351 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1306 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.09 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0463 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0463 } ], "others": 0.4849, "total": 1.8262, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.140864 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119626 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.07478 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.036379 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.035134 } ], "others_margin": 0.308621 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.15917664766311646, "model_output": 0.1592, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0461, "total": 0.1592, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101524 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.05725 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045066 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.037203 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.03719 } ], "others_margin": 0.341629 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1557541936635971, "model_output": 0.1558, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": 0.0344, "total": 0.1558, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.071451 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.069054 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068236 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062912 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.058902 } ], "others_margin": 0.249044 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.22992980480194092, "model_output": 0.2299, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": 0.0084, "total": 0.2299, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.457002 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.180897 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119149 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062911 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.034016 } ], "others_margin": 0.037371 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.25005778670310974, "model_output": 0.2501, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0373 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": 0.038, "total": 0.2501, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.323221 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.173004 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.10836 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.089088 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.080693 } ], "others_margin": 0.164518 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.949081540107727, "model_output": 0.9491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1137 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.118 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0825 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0403 } ], "others": 0.2258, "total": 0.9491, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.299296 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.237862 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06523 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.057309 } ], "others_margin": 0.271644 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.210646390914917, "model_output": 2.2106, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.57 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1904 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1151 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0495 } ], "others": 0.2286, "total": 2.2106, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.570037 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.190387 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.115079 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.061455 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049496 } ], "others_margin": 0.228658 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.207584381103516, "model_output": 7.2076, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0606 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": 0.0689, "total": 7.2076, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.149461 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060628 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025994 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.017191 } ], "others_margin": 0.068915 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.896)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "assists": 0.1579, "assist_rate": 0.1579, "expected_goals": 0.2331, "goals": 0.2536, "goal_rate": 0.2536, "shots_on_target": 0.9624, "total_shots": 2.2417, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.5712, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3628, "tackles_won": 0.6872, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8362, "fouls_drawn": 0.9765, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2213, "xgot": 0.566, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.2793 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 113000000, "quality_factor": 0.8965, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0119)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "assists": 0.156, "assist_rate": 0.156, "expected_goals": 0.2331, "goals": 0.2643, "goal_rate": 0.2643, "shots_on_target": 0.9738, "total_shots": 2.2426, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.5712, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2213, "xgot": 0.566, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.2793 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0119, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.888, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9624, "after": 0.9738 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2536, "after": 0.2643 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9765, "after": 0.9832 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6872, "after": 0.6928 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "assists": 0.156, "assist_rate": 0.156, "expected_goals": 0.2331, "goals": 0.2643, "goal_rate": 0.2643, "shots_on_target": 0.9738, "total_shots": 2.2531, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.5712, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2213, "xgot": 0.566, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.2793 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "assists": 0.156, "assist_rate": 0.156, "expected_goals": 0.2734, "goals": 0.31, "goal_rate": 0.31, "shots_on_target": 1.1422, "total_shots": 2.6427, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2596, "xgot": 0.6639, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.5005, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "skill_edge": 0.1617, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.8981, "defender_skill": 0.5389, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "market_value": 9700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5389 } ], "xg_override": 0.2734 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2531, "after": 2.6427 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5712, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2793, "after": 1.5005 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9738, "after": 1.1422 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.566, "after": 0.6639 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2643, "after": 0.31 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2331, "after": 0.2734 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2213, "after": 0.2596 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "assist_rate": 0.156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2734, "goal_rate": 0.31, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1422, "total_shots": 2.6427, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2596, "xgot": 0.6639, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.5005, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4427, "goal_rate": 0.31, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1422, "total_shots": 2.6427, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2596, "xgot": 1.075, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.5005, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 0.9745 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2734, "after": 0.4427 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1614, "after": 0.2959 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4427, "goal_rate": 0.31, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1422, "total_shots": 2.6427, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2596, "xgot": 1.075, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.5005, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 33, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4427, "goal_rate": 0.31, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1422, "total_shots": 2.6427, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2596, "xgot": 1.075, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.5005, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3577, "goal_rate": 0.31, "scorer_weight": 0.4928, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.1192, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8517, "expected_assists": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4427, "goal_rate": 0.31, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1422, "total_shots": 2.6427, "rating": 7.2076, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.6336, "accurate_pass": 32.7528, "duels_won": 4.7007, "total_long_balls": 2.2016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9195, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1143, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6386, "crosses_total": 1.489, "crosses_accurate": 0.3708, "touches": 56.6591, "possession_lost": 12.9749, "dispossessed": 1.5311, "duels_lost": 6.341, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.6328, "interceptions": 0.3631, "tackles_won": 0.6928, "tackles": 1.5366, "clearances": 0.42, "total_contest": 2.8477, "won_contest": 1.6163, "challenges_lost": 1.1709, "fouls": 1.8327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9832, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4998, "big_chances_missed": 0.2596, "xgot": 1.075, "ball_carries": 14.3921, "total_progression": 50.2688, "progressive_carries": 2.0123, "shots_off_target": 1.5005, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2561, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2561, "assist_rate": 0.156, "provider_weight": 0.2884, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.1087, "creation_factor": 0.9745, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Pedri": { "player_id": 992587, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 174, "market_value": 164000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3209, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 65, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 41, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 83, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1261, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 94, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2745, "finishing_factor": 1.1501, "creation_factor": 1.0716, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1555, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1863, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.297, "expected_assists": 0.112, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 69, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.4608, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 46, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3751, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 103, "accurate_pass": 96, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6, "combined_rank_score": 12.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 12.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.425, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 12.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.192, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.773, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0141, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 206.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4347826086956522, "shots_per90": 0.87, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.4347826086956522)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9415, "expected_assists": 0.1725, "assists": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.1861, "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.0985, "goal_rate": 0.0985, "shots_on_target": 0.2668, "total_shots": 0.9756, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 68.8382, "accurate_pass": 63.7755, "duels_won": 3.3899, "total_long_balls": 3.6875, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7352, "total_own_half_passes": 24.619, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.3508, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.2192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.4246, "crosses_total": 1.2301, "crosses_accurate": 0.4353, "touches": 81.9742, "possession_lost": 8.6359, "dispossessed": 0.7575, "duels_lost": 3.2242, "aerial_won": 0.1254, "aerial_lost": 0.0086, "interceptions": 0.3745, "tackles_won": 0.9031, "tackles": 1.4742, "clearances": 0.7393, "total_contest": 1.4596, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.5763, "fouls": 0.2207, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "blocks": 0.0178, "big_chances_created": 0.1233, "big_chances_missed": 0.0307, "xgot": 0.0661, "ball_carries": 28.9154, "total_progression": 92.5087, "progressive_carries": 1.881, "shots_off_target": 0.7088 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 46.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8016, "creative_index": 0.9595, "expectedGoals": 0.0575, "expectedAssists": 0.1784, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1119 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.9414857625961304, "model_output": 1.9415, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.2266 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1541 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1148 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1243 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0764 } ], "others": 0.5051, "total": 1.9415, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.226172 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128967 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.086318 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.085711 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.051853 } ], "others_margin": 0.301328 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.17254316806793213, "model_output": 0.1725, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": 0.0345, "total": 0.1725, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.151918 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132636 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.094032 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.060342 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038647 } ], "others_margin": 0.222918 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.18613649904727936, "model_output": 0.1861, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0602, "total": 0.1861, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.142284 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.132969 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.131692 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.115648 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.111017 } ], "others_margin": 0.390128 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07906638085842133, "model_output": 0.0791, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.0791, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.098955 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.07065 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.05318 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.050915 } ], "others_margin": -0.139846 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09854498505592346, "model_output": 0.0985, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": 0.005, "total": 0.0985, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.130966 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120539 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.116604 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11222 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.067939 } ], "others_margin": 0.052964 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2667665183544159, "model_output": 0.2668, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0177, "total": 0.2668, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.223025 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148204 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.072606 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069592 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.063733 } ], "others_margin": -0.064153 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9755276441574097, "model_output": 0.9755, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1512 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1058 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0334 } ], "others": -0.1207, "total": 0.9755, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151161 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.105779 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052076 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036647 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03341 } ], "others_margin": -0.120702 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.191954612731934, "model_output": 7.192, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1296 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1053 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0174 } ], "others": 0.0095, "total": 7.192, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.12963 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10533 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.047171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029934 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017357 } ], "others_margin": 0.009476 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0141, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.175, "assists": 0.1888, "assist_rate": 0.1888, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "goals": 0.0999, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "shots_on_target": 0.2705, "total_shots": 0.9893, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2474, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.1272, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3798, "tackles_won": 0.9158, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2238, "fouls_drawn": 1.0059, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0311, "xgot": 0.067, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.7188 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 164000000, "quality_factor": 0.8997, "boost_factor": 1.0141, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0119)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.175, "assists": 0.1911, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "goals": 0.0987, "goal_rate": 0.0987, "shots_on_target": 0.2673, "total_shots": 0.9867, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.1272, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0311, "xgot": 0.067, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.7188 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0119, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8863, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9158, "after": 0.9232 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.175, "assists": 0.1911, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "goals": 0.0987, "goal_rate": 0.0987, "shots_on_target": 0.2673, "total_shots": 0.9867, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.1272, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0311, "xgot": 0.067, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.7188 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.175, "assists": 0.1911, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 1.1469, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0362, "xgot": 0.0779, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.8355, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "skill_edge": 0.1624, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.8999, "defender_skill": 0.5389, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "market_value": 9700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5389 } ], "xg_override": 0.0932 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1272, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9867, "after": 1.1469 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7188, "after": 0.8355 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2673, "after": 0.3107 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0987, "after": 0.1147 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0802, "after": 0.0932 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.067, "after": 0.0779 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0311, "after": 0.0362 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.175, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 1.1469, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0362, "xgot": 0.0779, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.8355, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.3209, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 1.1469, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0362, "xgot": 0.1261, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.8355, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1501, "creation_factor": 1.0716 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0932, "after": 0.1509 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.175, "after": 0.3209 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.3209, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 1.1469, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0362, "xgot": 0.1261, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.8355, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1501, "creation_factor": 1.0716, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6, "fifa_rank": 12.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.3209, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 1.1469, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0362, "xgot": 0.1261, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.8355, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1501, "creation_factor": 1.0716, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "scorer_weight": 0.1736, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.042, "finishing_factor": 1.1501, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9689, "expected_assists": 0.3209, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 1.1469, "rating": 7.192, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8088, "accurate_pass": 64.6747, "duels_won": 3.4377, "total_long_balls": 3.7395, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7738, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.8427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40.9946, "crosses_total": 1.2463, "crosses_accurate": 0.4414, "touches": 83.13, "possession_lost": 8.7577, "dispossessed": 0.7682, "duels_lost": 3.2697, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3753, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 1.495, "clearances": 0.7497, "total_contest": 1.4802, "won_contest": 0.8097, "challenges_lost": 1.5985, "fouls": 0.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.0077, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.125, "big_chances_missed": 0.0362, "xgot": 0.1261, "ball_carries": 29.3231, "total_progression": 93.8131, "progressive_carries": 1.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.8355, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Bernal", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Bernal", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2745, "finishing_factor": 1.1501, "creation_factor": 1.0716, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2745, "assist_rate": 0.1911, "provider_weight": 0.3439, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.1296, "creation_factor": 1.0716, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "player_id": 940054, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 180, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6662, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2686, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.609, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Bellerín", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4863, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2356, "finishing_factor": 0.9619, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3701, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.8305, "expected_assists": 0.5412, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 7, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.648, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3099, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5525, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5198, "expected_assists": 0.051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 927, "combined_rank_score": 430.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 416.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0709, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Karim Adeyemi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Montecinos", "ranking": 922 }, { "player_name": "Sang-jun Lee", "ranking": 923 }, { "player_name": "Ju-an You", "ranking": 924 }, { "player_name": "Julián Brea", "ranking": 925 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Zalazar", "ranking": 926 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marlon Maranhão", "ranking": 928 }, { "player_name": "Islom Kenzhaboev", "ranking": 929 }, { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0324, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 89.0, "goals_per90": 1.0, "assists_per90": 1.0, "shots_per90": 3.03, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 1.0, ast/90: 1.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.322, "goals": 0.299, "goal_rate": 0.299, "shots_on_target": 0.8151, "total_shots": 2.3124, "expected_assists": 0.1419, "key_pass": 1.4757, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 14.5835, "accurate_pass": 12.3039, "duels_won": 3.3044, "total_long_balls": 0.2723, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9926, "crosses_total": 0.8838, "crosses_accurate": 0.3552, "touches": 24.8002, "possession_lost": 5.2282, "dispossessed": 0.4508, "duels_lost": 2.5711, "aerial_lost": 0.2979, "total_contest": 2.7493, "won_contest": 1.5431, "ball_recovery": 1.5044, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.3757, "fouls_drawn": 1.1186, "assists": 0.2405, "assist_rate": 0.2405, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2532, "clearances": 0.1266, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4469, "big_chances_missed": 0.7914, "xgot": 0.2944, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.7674, "total_progression": 51.1767, "progressive_carries": 3.2514, "shots_off_target": 1.4973 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.8987, "expectedGoals": 0.5253, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.9926, "accuratePass": 12.3039, "totalShots": 2.1088 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.32198628783226013, "model_output": 0.322, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0683 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.322, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24271 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.240052 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.064734 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.047989 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.044032 } ], "others_margin": -0.021378 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2989754378795624, "model_output": 0.299, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0694 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0758 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.299, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.293736 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.245245 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.101554 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.079059 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.055267 } ], "others_margin": -0.028241 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8151071667671204, "model_output": 0.8151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1823 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0814 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0408 } ], "others": -0.0143, "total": 0.8151, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.292037 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.107165 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.07476 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.05879 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.050379 } ], "others_margin": -0.017499 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.3124146461486816, "model_output": 2.3124, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4807 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1881 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1745 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0688 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0531 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 2.3124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.480678 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.188144 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.174494 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.068786 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.053084 } ], "others_margin": -0.026613 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.14193375408649445, "model_output": 0.1419, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0279, "total": 0.1419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.280021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.192422 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.102119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.078486 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.077399 } ], "others_margin": 0.21964 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.475715160369873, "model_output": 1.4757, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2348 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1757 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1007 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0856 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0807 } ], "others": 0.2862, "total": 1.4757, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.299171 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.176826 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.088861 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.06976 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.06562 } ], "others_margin": 0.215606 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.070888519287109, "model_output": 7.0709, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.088 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0855 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.024 } ], "others": 0.0489, "total": 7.0709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.088047 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.08552 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030281 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.027216 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.024009 } ], "others_margin": 0.048813 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0324, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3324, "goals": 0.3087, "goal_rate": 0.3087, "shots_on_target": 0.8415, "total_shots": 2.3873, "expected_assists": 0.1465, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9124, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3879, "fouls_drawn": 1.1548, "assists": 0.2483, "assist_rate": 0.2483, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 0.817, "xgot": 0.3039, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.5458 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0324, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3324, "goals": 0.3182, "goal_rate": 0.3182, "shots_on_target": 0.872, "total_shots": 2.392, "expected_assists": 0.1465, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assists": 0.2588, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 0.817, "xgot": 0.3039, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.5458 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8807, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8415, "after": 0.872 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2483, "after": 0.2588 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1548, "after": 1.1649 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3087, "after": 0.3182 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.3879, "after": 0.3961 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3324, "goals": 0.3182, "goal_rate": 0.3182, "shots_on_target": 0.872, "total_shots": 2.4178, "expected_assists": 0.1465, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assists": 0.2588, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 0.817, "xgot": 0.3039, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.5458 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4114, "goals": 0.3938, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "shots_on_target": 1.0792, "total_shots": 2.9923, "expected_assists": 0.1465, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assists": 0.2588, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 1.0111, "xgot": 0.3761, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.9131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Bellerín", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "skill_edge": 0.1536, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.7859, "defender_skill": 0.4445, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Héctor Bellerín", "market_value": 2500000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4445 } ], "xg_override": 0.4114 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4178, "after": 2.9923 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5458, "after": 1.9131 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.872, "after": 1.0792 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.817, "after": 1.0111 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3324, "after": 0.4114 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3182, "after": 0.3938 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3039, "after": 0.3761 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4114, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0792, "total_shots": 2.9923, "expected_assists": 0.1465, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 1.0111, "xgot": 0.3761, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.9131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Bellerín", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6662, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0792, "total_shots": 2.9923, "expected_assists": 0.2686, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 1.0111, "xgot": 0.609, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.9131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Bellerín", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9619, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.4114, "after": 0.6662 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1465, "after": 0.2686 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6662, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0792, "total_shots": 2.9923, "expected_assists": 0.2686, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 1.0111, "xgot": 0.609, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.9131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Bellerín", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9619, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 927, "fifa_rank": 416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6662, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0792, "total_shots": 2.9923, "expected_assists": 0.2686, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 1.0111, "xgot": 0.609, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.9131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Bellerín", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4863, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9619, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4863, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "scorer_weight": 0.6408, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.1551, "finishing_factor": 0.9619, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6662, "goal_rate": 0.3938, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0792, "total_shots": 2.9923, "expected_assists": 0.2686, "key_pass": 1.5235, "rating": 7.0709, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.056, "accurate_pass": 12.7025, "duels_won": 3.4115, "total_long_balls": 0.2811, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2811, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.284, "crosses_total": 0.9119, "crosses_accurate": 0.3667, "touches": 25.6037, "possession_lost": 5.3976, "dispossessed": 0.4654, "duels_lost": 2.6544, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 2.8384, "won_contest": 1.5931, "ball_recovery": 1.5531, "challenges_lost": 0.2483, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 1.1649, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.1307, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4614, "big_chances_missed": 1.0111, "xgot": 0.609, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1487, "total_progression": 52.8348, "progressive_carries": 3.3567, "shots_off_target": 1.9131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Bellerín", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Bellerín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4863, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2356, "finishing_factor": 0.9619, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2356, "assist_rate": 0.2588, "provider_weight": 0.3357, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.1266, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Gabriel Jesus": { "player_id": 794839, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 17600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5386, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1195, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4359, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.4164, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1126, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2435, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1758, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.123, "expected_assists": 0.222, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8793, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025021, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0829, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025018, "match_date": "2026-02-18", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025158, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025134, "match_date": "2026-01-31", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7379, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2126, "combined_rank_score": 803.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8213, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Jesus", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Edvinas Girdvainis", "ranking": 2121 }, { "player_name": "Son Seung-Min", "ranking": 2122 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Dalot", "ranking": 2123 }, { "player_name": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "ranking": 2124 }, { "player_name": "Crysencio Summerville", "ranking": 2125 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sepp van den Berg", "ranking": 2127 }, { "player_name": "Chan-hyung Lee", "ranking": 2128 }, { "player_name": "Sarvar Abduhamidov", "ranking": 2129 }, { "player_name": "Oleksiy Shchebetun", "ranking": 2130 }, { "player_name": "Nurzhakhon Muzaffarov", "ranking": 2131 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 18, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0066, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 18 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.325, "goals": 0.3467, "goal_rate": 0.3467, "shots_on_target": 0.9245, "total_shots": 2.0332, "expected_assists": 0.0648, "key_pass": 0.8027, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.6606, "accurate_pass": 15.2997, "duels_won": 2.8018, "total_long_balls": 0.2667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9179, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.591, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.2357, "possession_lost": 7.3679, "dispossessed": 1.1211, "duels_lost": 4.1857, "aerial_lost": 1.6862, "total_contest": 1.2798, "won_contest": 1.0871, "ball_recovery": 3.1812, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1857, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9414, "tackles": 0.9414, "clearances": 0.7262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4278, "xgot": 0.2631, "offsides": 1.0656, "ball_carries": 6.1132, "total_progression": 22.5101, "progressive_carries": 0.4935, "shots_off_target": 1.1086 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1585, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1347, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1145, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0973, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0827, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0703, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0598, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0508, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0432, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0367, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 18.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.2141, "expectedGoals": 0.1974, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.7654, "accuratePass": 9.3085, "totalShots": 1.3722 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3250102400779724, "model_output": 0.325, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0752 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 0.325, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.322428 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.074743 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.050638 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.043825 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.040751 } ], "others_margin": -0.034366 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.34667834639549255, "model_output": 0.3467, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.3467, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.319196 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.068868 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.067785 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.043617 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.041118 } ], "others_margin": -0.007153 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.9245420694351196, "model_output": 0.9245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2175 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.077 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0375, "total": 0.9245, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.339727 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.097078 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.061334 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.051288 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.032395 } ], "others_margin": -0.03973 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.033156156539917, "model_output": 2.0332, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5384 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0904 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0712, "total": 2.0332, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.538407 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.090363 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.038015 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.037412 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.026392 } ], "others_margin": -0.071274 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06481999158859253, "model_output": 0.0648, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0207, "total": 0.0648, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.251395 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.133078 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.097765 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051022 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.0505 } ], "others_margin": -0.276818 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8026570677757263, "model_output": 0.8027, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1973 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0347 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.8027, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.257006 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.067435 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055919 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.04944 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.042213 } ], "others_margin": -0.001234 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.821325302124023, "model_output": 6.8213, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 6.8213, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026573 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02243 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.018319 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013545 } ], "others_margin": -0.032982 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3272, "goals": 0.349, "goal_rate": 0.349, "shots_on_target": 0.9306, "total_shots": 2.0466, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4372, "xgot": 0.2648, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1159 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3272, "goals": 0.349, "goal_rate": 0.349, "shots_on_target": 0.9306, "total_shots": 2.0466, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4372, "xgot": 0.2648, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1159 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3326, "goals": 0.3548, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "shots_on_target": 0.946, "total_shots": 2.0804, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4609, "xgot": 0.2692, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "skill_edge": 0.0432, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.6068, "defender_skill": 0.5108, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Valentín Gómez", "market_value": 11200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5785 }, { "player": "Diego Llorente", "market_value": 2600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4432 } ], "xg_override": 0.3326 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0466, "after": 2.0804 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 1.4372, "after": 1.4609 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1159, "after": 1.1343 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9306, "after": 0.946 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.349, "after": 0.3548 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3272, "after": 0.3326 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3326, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.946, "total_shots": 2.0804, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4609, "xgot": 0.2692, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5386, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.946, "total_shots": 2.0804, "expected_assists": 0.1195, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4609, "xgot": 0.4359, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3326, "after": 0.5386 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0652, "after": 0.1195 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5386, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.946, "total_shots": 2.0804, "expected_assists": 0.1195, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4609, "xgot": 0.4359, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5386, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.946, "total_shots": 2.0804, "expected_assists": 0.1195, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4609, "xgot": 0.4359, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.4164, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.4164, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "scorer_weight": 0.5698, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.1379, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5386, "goal_rate": 0.3548, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.946, "total_shots": 2.0804, "expected_assists": 0.1195, "key_pass": 0.808, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 73.68, "total_pass": 18.7838, "accurate_pass": 15.4007, "duels_won": 2.8203, "total_long_balls": 0.2685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6807, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.4353, "possession_lost": 7.4165, "dispossessed": 1.1285, "duels_lost": 4.2133, "aerial_lost": 1.6973, "total_contest": 1.2882, "won_contest": 1.0943, "ball_recovery": 3.2022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1935, "fouls_drawn": 0.3159, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "tackles": 0.9476, "clearances": 0.731, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.4609, "xgot": 0.4359, "offsides": 1.0726, "ball_carries": 6.1535, "total_progression": 22.6587, "progressive_carries": 0.4968, "shots_off_target": 1.1343, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "opponent_faced": "Valentín Gómez, Diego Llorente", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.4164, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1126, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1126, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0956, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.036, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lamine Yamal": { "player_id": 1402912, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 183, "market_value": 237000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2211, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_shots": 7, "expected_assists": 0.5227, "key_pass": 3, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 4, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.726, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.5814, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 131, "progressive_carries": 7, "shots_off_target": 4, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.306, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Bartra", "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7051, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.4071, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2346, "expected_assists": 0.7747, "total_shots": 6, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2641, "expected_assists": 0.5755, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 1.6645, "expected_assists": 0.3084, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6035, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1231, "expected_assists": 0.3021, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 6, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.327, "expected_assists": 0.5343, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8933, "expected_assists": 0.7456, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 5, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2063, "expected_assists": 0.1498, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 44, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9131, "expected_assists": 0.2099, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 1.2049, "expected_assists": 0.5263, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 7.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 8.2404, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.777, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.777, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0145, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 244.0, "goals_per90": 0.7407407407407407, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 5.53, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.18 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.18, gls/90: 0.7407407407407407, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5691, "goals": 0.8094, "goal_rate": 0.8094, "shots_on_target": 1.8466, "total_shots": 5.0684, "expected_assists": 0.2809, "key_pass": 3.0543, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 49.3046, "accurate_pass": 39.3141, "duels_won": 5.8608, "total_long_balls": 1.8917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9348, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.367, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1072, "crosses_total": 3.3042, "crosses_accurate": 1.0215, "touches": 74.6036, "possession_lost": 19.6573, "dispossessed": 1.2813, "duels_lost": 5.5694, "aerial_lost": 0.0163, "total_contest": 6.3959, "won_contest": 3.8003, "ball_recovery": 2.4752, "challenges_lost": 0.611, "fouls": 1.1577, "fouls_drawn": 1.608, "assists": 0.726, "assist_rate": 0.726, "interceptions": 0.2121, "tackles_won": 0.1742, "tackles": 0.4524, "clearances": 0.1694, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.4954, "big_chances_missed": 0.3757, "xgot": 0.7371, "offsides": 0.7657, "ball_carries": 25.6316, "total_progression": 128.9549, "progressive_carries": 6.5759, "shots_off_target": 3.2217 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 44.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 10.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 40.5837, "expectedGoals": 0.7304, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 31.425, "accuratePass": 38.4903, "totalShots": 5.2341 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.5691491365432739, "model_output": 0.5691, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1004 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0309 } ], "others": 0.0581, "total": 0.5691, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.340797 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.308545 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.155253 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.083496 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.062367 } ], "others_margin": 0.107847 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.8093633651733398, "model_output": 0.8094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0877 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0969 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0735 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0693 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0767 } ], "others": 0.2019, "total": 0.8094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.358439 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.287532 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.17352 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.139924 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.134907 } ], "others_margin": 0.286959 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.846627950668335, "model_output": 1.8466, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2349 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1499 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1176 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.1202 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0994 } ], "others": 0.587, "total": 1.8466, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.362533 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.177381 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.119985 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.109341 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.08222 } ], "others_margin": 0.382451 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 5.068355083465576, "model_output": 5.0684, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.8741 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.8351 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.3418 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.25 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.2027 } ], "others": 1.1909, "total": 5.0684, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.874101 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.835082 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.341769 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.249977 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.202669 } ], "others_margin": 1.190916 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.28092044591903687, "model_output": 0.2809, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": 0.138, "total": 0.2809, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.227833 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.220602 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.137181 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.109449 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.105063 } ], "others_margin": 0.675699 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 3.054274797439575, "model_output": 3.0543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2292 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.2869 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.188 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.2049 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1283 } ], "others": 1.3436, "total": 3.0543, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.293004 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.276029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.146747 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.138681 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.077928 } ], "others_margin": 0.579616 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 8.240386009216309, "model_output": 8.2404, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.2014 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1516 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1092 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.106 } ], "others": 0.7632, "total": 8.2404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.201368 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.151557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.142034 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.109168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.106033 } ], "others_margin": 0.763223 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5774, "goals": 0.8211, "goal_rate": 0.8211, "shots_on_target": 1.8734, "total_shots": 5.1418, "expected_assists": 0.285, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3521, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1745, "fouls_drawn": 1.6313, "assists": 0.7365, "assist_rate": 0.7365, "interceptions": 0.2152, "tackles_won": 0.1767, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.3811, "xgot": 0.7478, "offsides": 0.7768, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 3.2684 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 237000000, "quality_factor": 0.9, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0143)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5774, "goals": 0.8192, "goal_rate": 0.8192, "shots_on_target": 1.8711, "total_shots": 5.1418, "expected_assists": 0.285, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assists": 0.726, "assist_rate": 0.726, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.3811, "xgot": 0.7478, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 3.2684 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0143, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9296, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.7768, "after": 0.7952 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.7365, "after": 0.726 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1745, "after": 1.1676 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.2152, "after": 0.222 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.3521, "after": 3.3583 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5774, "goals": 0.8192, "goal_rate": 0.8192, "shots_on_target": 1.8711, "total_shots": 5.1418, "expected_assists": 0.285, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assists": 0.726, "assist_rate": 0.726, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.3811, "xgot": 0.7478, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 3.2684 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7541, "goals": 1.0699, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "shots_on_target": 2.4437, "total_shots": 6.7152, "expected_assists": 0.285, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assists": 0.726, "assist_rate": 0.726, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.4977, "xgot": 0.9766, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 4.2685, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.306, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Bartra", "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.306, "skill_edge": 0.2082, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.9, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Marc Bartra", "market_value": 930000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.7541 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 5.1418, "after": 6.7152 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 3.2684, "after": 4.2685 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.8711, "after": 2.4437 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.8192, "after": 1.0699 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.7478, "after": 0.9766 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.5774, "after": 0.7541 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3811, "after": 0.4977 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7541, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2.4437, "total_shots": 6.7152, "expected_assists": 0.285, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assist_rate": 0.726, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.4977, "xgot": 0.9766, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 4.2685, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.306, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Bartra", "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 }, { "stat": "assists", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2211, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2.4437, "total_shots": 6.7152, "expected_assists": 0.5227, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assist_rate": 0.726, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.4977, "xgot": 1.5814, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 4.2685, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.306, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Bartra", "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.7541, "after": 1.2211 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.285, "after": 0.5227 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2211, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2.4437, "total_shots": 6.7152, "expected_assists": 0.5227, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assist_rate": 0.726, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.4977, "xgot": 1.5814, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 4.2685, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.306, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Bartra", "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1, "fifa_rank": 4.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2211, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2.4437, "total_shots": 6.7152, "expected_assists": 0.5227, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assist_rate": 0.726, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.4977, "xgot": 1.5814, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 4.2685, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.306, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Bartra", "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7051, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7051, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "scorer_weight": 1.5264, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.3693, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2211, "goal_rate": 1.0699, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2.4437, "total_shots": 6.7152, "expected_assists": 0.5227, "key_pass": 3.0986, "rating": 8.2404, "minutes": 83.66, "total_pass": 50.0195, "accurate_pass": 39.8842, "duels_won": 5.9458, "total_long_balls": 1.9191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9484, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5728, "crosses_total": 3.3583, "crosses_accurate": 1.0363, "touches": 75.6854, "possession_lost": 19.9423, "dispossessed": 1.2999, "duels_lost": 5.6502, "aerial_lost": 0.0165, "total_contest": 6.4886, "won_contest": 3.8554, "ball_recovery": 2.5111, "challenges_lost": 0.6199, "fouls": 1.1676, "fouls_drawn": 1.6326, "assist_rate": 0.726, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0.222, "tackles_won": 0.1791, "tackles": 0.459, "clearances": 0.1719, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.5171, "big_chances_missed": 0.4977, "xgot": 1.5814, "offsides": 0.7952, "ball_carries": 26.0033, "total_progression": 130.8247, "progressive_carries": 6.6713, "shots_off_target": 4.2685, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.306, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Bartra", "opponent_faced": "Marc Bartra", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7051, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.4071, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.4071, "assist_rate": 0.726, "provider_weight": 0.6534, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.2463, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Dominik Livaković": { "player_id": 190419, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 186, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.1954, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 4, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.4617, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1939 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2016, "combined_rank_score": 769.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 274.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0714, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1264.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1954, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dominik Livaković", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ayoub El Kaabi", "ranking": 2011 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Tsygankov", "ranking": 2012 }, { "player_name": "Brennan Johnson", "ranking": 2013 }, { "player_name": "Dani Vivian", "ranking": 2014 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Larrivey", "ranking": 2015 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexander Nübel", "ranking": 2017 }, { "player_name": "Domingos Duarte", "ranking": 2018 }, { "player_name": "Davide Frattesi", "ranking": 2019 }, { "player_name": "Sebastian Szymański", "ranking": 2020 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov", "ranking": 2021 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.446242177473513, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.11119282624879602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9865, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (1 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9357, "goals_prevented": 0.0145, "rating": 7.1954, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 18.0, "accurate_pass": 15.0, "total_long_balls": 5.0, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0, "touches": 29.0, "clearances": 2.0, "ball_recovery": 8.0, "high_claims": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 2.0, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.0, "possession_lost": 3.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 2.0, "save_contribution": 1.8061, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9333, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 14.0, "passValueNormalized": 0.05, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 15.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9357259273529053, "model_output": 2.9357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1133 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0692 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0585 } ], "others": 0.1196, "total": 2.9357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0393 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.024771 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.023832 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.023536 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020991 } ], "others_margin": 0.041567 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.014457596465945244, "model_output": 0.0145, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0749 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0186, "total": 0.0145, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.074859 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.045762 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.037599 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.022904 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019841 } ], "others_margin": 0.01862 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.195405006408691, "model_output": 7.1954, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0284 } ], "others": 0.0403, "total": 7.1954, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.08593 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.037554 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.036765 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.031023 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.028401 } ], "others_margin": 0.040375 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9865, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8961, "goals_prevented": 0.0143, "rating": 7.1954, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 17.757, "accurate_pass": 14.7975, "total_long_balls": 4.9325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.973, "touches": 28.6085, "clearances": 1.973, "ball_recovery": 7.892, "high_claims": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 1.973, "sweeper_accurate": 1.973, "saves_inside_box": 0.0, "possession_lost": 2.9595, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.811 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9865, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4518, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.1954, "minutes": 4.45, "total_pass": 2.7702, "accurate_pass": 2.3085, "total_long_balls": 0.7695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3078, "touches": 4.4632, "clearances": 0.3078, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "high_claims": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.3078, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3078, "saves_inside_box": 0.0, "possession_lost": 0.4617, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3085, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.45, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.156, "appearance_probability": 0.111 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4518, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.1954, "minutes": 4.45, "total_pass": 2.7702, "accurate_pass": 2.3085, "total_long_balls": 0.7695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3078, "touches": 4.4632, "clearances": 0.3078, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "high_claims": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.3078, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3078, "saves_inside_box": 0.0, "possession_lost": 0.4617, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3085, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4518, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.1954, "minutes": 4.45, "total_pass": 2.7702, "accurate_pass": 2.3085, "total_long_balls": 0.7695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3078, "touches": 4.4632, "clearances": 0.3078, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "high_claims": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.3078, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3078, "saves_inside_box": 0.0, "possession_lost": 0.4617, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3085, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.111, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4518, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.1954, "minutes": 4.45, "total_pass": 2.7702, "accurate_pass": 2.3085, "total_long_balls": 0.7695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3078, "touches": 4.4632, "clearances": 0.3078, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "high_claims": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.3078, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3078, "saves_inside_box": 0.0, "possession_lost": 0.4617, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3085, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2016, "fifa_rank": 1264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Alejandro Balde": { "player_id": 997035, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 177, "market_value": 55000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 2.4379, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2811, "expected_assists": 0.08, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0378, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083245, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081789, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0374, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 70, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083491, "match_date": "2026-02-16", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1817, "combined_rank_score": 965.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 700.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6963, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7698, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Balde", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nail Omerović", "ranking": 1812 }, { "player_name": "Elhan Kastrati", "ranking": 1813 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hun Cho", "ranking": 1814 }, { "player_name": "Abulfayz Bobomurodov", "ranking": 1815 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Rego Mora", "ranking": 1816 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Luis Morales", "ranking": 1818 }, { "player_name": "Guido Rodríguez", "ranking": 1819 }, { "player_name": "Wesley Fofana", "ranking": 1820 }, { "player_name": "Marten de Roon", "ranking": 1821 }, { "player_name": "Florentino Luís", "ranking": 1822 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.16605686531093, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3711844029686786, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0148, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (29 historical appearances) to 15.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.37); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2559, "tackles": 0.7602, "tackles_won": 0.4753, "clearances": 0.6372, "aerial_won": 0.1844, "total_shots": 0.1723, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 24.93, "total_pass": 17.1358, "accurate_pass": 14.8924, "duels_won": 1.9451, "total_long_balls": 0.1753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.017, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.2502, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1187, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6421, "crosses_total": 0.0915, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.2489, "possession_lost": 3.9491, "dispossessed": 0.1692, "duels_lost": 1.0691, "aerial_lost": 0.0661, "total_contest": 0.8753, "won_contest": 0.1854, "ball_recovery": 1.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1439, "fouls_drawn": 0.9105, "blocks": 0.0661, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0066, "expected_assists": 0.027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2062, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5663, "total_progression": 33.276, "progressive_carries": 1.1095, "key_pass": 0.2977, "shots_off_target": 0.1723 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 2.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-16", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 0.767, "aerialWon": 0.1332, "totalClearance_p90": 0.9448, "totalTackle": 0.9565, "defensive_actions": 0.9889 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.25593098998069763, "model_output": 0.2559, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5117 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0487, "total": 0.2559, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.902509 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.107299 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.046911 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044832 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027336 } ], "others_margin": -0.173817 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7601978778839111, "model_output": 0.7602, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.768 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0271 } ], "others": 0.0172, "total": 0.7602, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.802776 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.060485 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.039575 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.038216 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.037102 } ], "others_margin": 0.022835 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4753243029117584, "model_output": 0.4753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4465 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": 0.0111, "total": 0.4753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.739636 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.078525 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.049682 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.035493 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.033827 } ], "others_margin": 0.023635 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.6371619701385498, "model_output": 0.6372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1561 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2957 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1123 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0466 } ], "others": -0.1301, "total": 0.6372, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.989141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.263505 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.121618 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.065089 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.058926 } ], "others_margin": -0.18581 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.18442946672439575, "model_output": 0.1844, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8315 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2159 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0319 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0231 } ], "others": -0.0474, "total": 0.1844, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.925574 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.50342 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.140012 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.117867 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.094999 } ], "others_margin": -0.228751 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17232529819011688, "model_output": 0.1723, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2374 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.046, "total": 0.1723, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.237352 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.052947 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.027952 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01658 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010451 } ], "others_margin": -0.045957 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7697649002075195, "model_output": 6.7698, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 6.7698, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043328 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.029551 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012955 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01208 } ], "others_margin": -0.007448 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2597, "tackles": 0.7714, "tackles_won": 0.4824, "clearances": 0.6466, "aerial_won": 0.1872, "total_shots": 0.1749, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 24.93, "total_pass": 17.3894, "accurate_pass": 15.1128, "duels_won": 1.9739, "total_long_balls": 0.1779, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.1357, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.3575, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7552, "crosses_total": 0.0929, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.6078, "possession_lost": 4.0075, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1.0849, "aerial_lost": 0.0671, "total_contest": 0.8883, "won_contest": 0.1881, "ball_recovery": 1.4341, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.146, "fouls_drawn": 0.924, "blocks": 0.0671, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2093, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6635, "total_progression": 33.7685, "progressive_carries": 1.1259, "key_pass": 0.3021, "shots_off_target": 0.1749 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.9 to 15.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.37)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.158, "tackles": 0.4693, "tackles_won": 0.2935, "clearances": 0.3934, "aerial_won": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.1064, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 10.5788, "accurate_pass": 9.1938, "duels_won": 1.2008, "total_long_balls": 0.1082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7178, "crosses_total": 0.0565, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.97, "possession_lost": 2.4379, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 0.66, "aerial_lost": 0.0671, "total_contest": 0.5404, "won_contest": 0.1144, "ball_recovery": 0.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0888, "fouls_drawn": 0.5621, "blocks": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1273, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0537, "total_progression": 20.5429, "progressive_carries": 0.6849, "key_pass": 0.1838, "shots_off_target": 0.1064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.17, "projection_minutes": 24.93, "minutes_scale": 0.6083, "appearance_probability": 0.371 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.158, "tackles": 0.4693, "tackles_won": 0.2935, "clearances": 0.3934, "aerial_won": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.1064, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 10.5788, "accurate_pass": 9.1938, "duels_won": 1.2008, "total_long_balls": 0.1082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7178, "crosses_total": 0.0565, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.97, "possession_lost": 2.4379, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 0.66, "aerial_lost": 0.0671, "total_contest": 0.5404, "won_contest": 0.1144, "ball_recovery": 0.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0888, "fouls_drawn": 0.5621, "blocks": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1273, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0537, "total_progression": 20.5429, "progressive_carries": 0.6849, "key_pass": 0.1838, "shots_off_target": 0.1064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.158, "tackles": 0.4693, "tackles_won": 0.2935, "clearances": 0.3934, "aerial_won": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.1064, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 10.5788, "accurate_pass": 9.1938, "duels_won": 1.2008, "total_long_balls": 0.1082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7178, "crosses_total": 0.0565, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.97, "possession_lost": 2.4379, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 0.66, "aerial_lost": 0.0671, "total_contest": 0.5404, "won_contest": 0.1144, "ball_recovery": 0.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0888, "fouls_drawn": 0.5621, "blocks": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1273, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0537, "total_progression": 20.5429, "progressive_carries": 0.6849, "key_pass": 0.1838, "shots_off_target": 0.1064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.371, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.158, "tackles": 0.4693, "tackles_won": 0.2935, "clearances": 0.3934, "aerial_won": 0.1139, "total_shots": 0.1064, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 10.5788, "accurate_pass": 9.1938, "duels_won": 1.2008, "total_long_balls": 0.1082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7178, "crosses_total": 0.0565, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.97, "possession_lost": 2.4379, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 0.66, "aerial_lost": 0.0671, "total_contest": 0.5404, "won_contest": 0.1144, "ball_recovery": 0.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0888, "fouls_drawn": 0.5621, "blocks": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1273, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0537, "total_progression": 20.5429, "progressive_carries": 0.6849, "key_pass": 0.1838, "shots_off_target": 0.1064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1817, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Eric García": { "player_id": 876214, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 182, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 4.9777, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0089, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.246, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 124, "accurate_pass": 121, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 79, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 103, "accurate_pass": 93, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.1814, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1559, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.048, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 91, "accurate_pass": 90, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 107, "combined_rank_score": 106.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 160.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9717, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Eric García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sanhueza", "ranking": 102 }, { "player_name": "Fedor Lapoukhov", "ranking": 103 }, { "player_name": "Ramón Sosa", "ranking": 104 }, { "player_name": "Hakan Çalhanoğlu", "ranking": 105 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Dybala", "ranking": 106 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Castellón", "ranking": 108 }, { "player_name": "Ben White", "ranking": 109 }, { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 110 }, { "player_name": "Jérémy Doku", "ranking": 111 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Lamas", "ranking": 112 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.008988063086047, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.246, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0096, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (41 historical appearances) to 15.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3669, "tackles": 0.8122, "tackles_won": 0.4929, "clearances": 1.0622, "aerial_won": 0.419, "total_shots": 0.2185, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 82.1334, "accurate_pass": 76.3485, "duels_won": 3.4354, "total_long_balls": 2.7285, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2568, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.3117, "total_opp_half_passes": 45.6424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 42.0368, "crosses_total": 0.3219, "crosses_accurate": 0.0058, "touches": 97.2756, "possession_lost": 7.8576, "dispossessed": 0.0959, "duels_lost": 2.6246, "aerial_lost": 1.0154, "total_contest": 0.7031, "won_contest": 0.1862, "ball_recovery": 4.546, "challenges_lost": 0.3843, "fouls": 0.6169, "fouls_drawn": 0.3669, "blocks": 0.2782, "goals": 0.0005, "goal_rate": 0.0005, "assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0127, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0731, "shots_on_target": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.099, "xgot": 0.0141, "ball_carries": 20.7399, "total_progression": 76.7801, "progressive_carries": 0.5747, "key_pass": 0.7015, "shots_off_target": 0.0316 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.1075, "aerialWon": 0.8408, "totalClearance_p90": 2.1755, "totalTackle": 2.0597, "defensive_actions": 2.9484 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.36688920855522156, "model_output": 0.3669, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4806 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.3669, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.817145 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041709 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.036676 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.035398 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.030784 } ], "others_margin": -0.047946 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.8122462630271912, "model_output": 0.8122, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6988 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0277 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.8122, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.697534 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.055569 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.038159 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.03814 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.034475 } ], "others_margin": -0.007147 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4929056465625763, "model_output": 0.4929, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4318 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.4929, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.704335 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.068765 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.054734 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.048722 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.032399 } ], "others_margin": -0.050093 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0622165203094482, "model_output": 1.0622, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.9676 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2222 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0957 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0459 } ], "others": -0.0693, "total": 1.0622, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.851445 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.164475 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.080133 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.055202 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04137 } ], "others_margin": -0.063114 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.41903966665267944, "model_output": 0.419, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7775 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1356 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0349 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.831236 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.256212 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.093911 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.088876 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.078474 } ], "others_margin": -0.018968 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.21852289140224457, "model_output": 0.2185, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2478 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0209 } ], "others": -0.0778, "total": 0.2185, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.247756 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.047583 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021464 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021393 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.02095 } ], "others_margin": -0.077711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.971672534942627, "model_output": 6.9717, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0847 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0712 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0322 } ], "others": 0.0546, "total": 6.9717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084664 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0712 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.045829 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.040864 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032159 } ], "others_margin": 0.054652 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0096, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3704, "tackles": 0.82, "tackles_won": 0.4976, "clearances": 1.0724, "aerial_won": 0.4231, "total_shots": 0.2206, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 82.9219, "accurate_pass": 77.0814, "duels_won": 3.4684, "total_long_balls": 2.7547, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2689, "total_own_half_passes": 36.8412, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6411, "total_opp_half_passes": 46.0806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 42.4404, "crosses_total": 0.325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0059, "touches": 98.2094, "possession_lost": 7.933, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 2.6498, "aerial_lost": 1.0251, "total_contest": 0.7098, "won_contest": 0.188, "ball_recovery": 4.5896, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.6228, "fouls_drawn": 0.3704, "blocks": 0.2809, "goals": 0.0005, "goal_rate": 0.0005, "assists": 0.0128, "assist_rate": 0.0128, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "big_chances_created": 0.1, "xgot": 0.0142, "ball_carries": 20.939, "total_progression": 77.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.5802, "key_pass": 0.7082, "shots_off_target": 0.0319 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0096, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3708, "tackles": 0.82, "tackles_won": 0.4994, "clearances": 1.0724, "aerial_won": 0.4231, "total_shots": 0.2212, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 82.9219, "accurate_pass": 77.0814, "duels_won": 3.4684, "total_long_balls": 2.7547, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2689, "total_own_half_passes": 36.8412, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6411, "total_opp_half_passes": 46.0806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 42.4404, "crosses_total": 0.3233, "crosses_accurate": 0.0059, "touches": 98.2094, "possession_lost": 7.933, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 2.6498, "aerial_lost": 1.0251, "total_contest": 0.7098, "won_contest": 0.188, "ball_recovery": 4.5896, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.6185, "fouls_drawn": 0.3671, "blocks": 0.2809, "goals": 0.0005, "goal_rate": 0.0005, "assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0127, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "shots_on_target": 0.187, "big_chances_created": 0.1, "xgot": 0.0142, "ball_carries": 20.939, "total_progression": 77.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.5802, "key_pass": 0.7082, "shots_off_target": 0.0319 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2658, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.25)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2327, "tackles": 0.5145, "tackles_won": 0.3134, "clearances": 0.6729, "aerial_won": 0.2655, "total_shots": 0.1388, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 52.0307, "accurate_pass": 48.366, "duels_won": 2.1763, "total_long_balls": 1.7285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7962, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7361, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.914, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.6299, "crosses_total": 0.2029, "crosses_accurate": 0.0037, "touches": 61.6231, "possession_lost": 4.9777, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 1.6627, "aerial_lost": 1.0251, "total_contest": 0.4454, "won_contest": 0.118, "ball_recovery": 2.8798, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.3881, "fouls_drawn": 0.2303, "blocks": 0.1763, "goals": 0.0003, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "assists": 0.008, "assist_rate": 0.008, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1173, "big_chances_created": 0.0627, "xgot": 0.0089, "ball_carries": 13.1385, "total_progression": 48.6394, "progressive_carries": 0.3641, "key_pass": 0.4444, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.246, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.01, "projection_minutes": 23.92, "minutes_scale": 0.6275, "appearance_probability": 0.246 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2327, "tackles": 0.5145, "tackles_won": 0.3134, "clearances": 0.6729, "aerial_won": 0.2655, "total_shots": 0.1388, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 52.0307, "accurate_pass": 48.366, "duels_won": 2.1763, "total_long_balls": 1.7285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7962, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7361, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.914, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.6299, "crosses_total": 0.2029, "crosses_accurate": 0.0037, "touches": 61.6231, "possession_lost": 4.9777, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 1.6627, "aerial_lost": 1.0251, "total_contest": 0.4454, "won_contest": 0.118, "ball_recovery": 2.8798, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.3881, "fouls_drawn": 0.2303, "blocks": 0.1763, "goals": 0.0003, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "assists": 0.008, "assist_rate": 0.008, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1173, "big_chances_created": 0.0627, "xgot": 0.0089, "ball_carries": 13.1385, "total_progression": 48.6394, "progressive_carries": 0.3641, "key_pass": 0.4444, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.246, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2327, "tackles": 0.5145, "tackles_won": 0.3134, "clearances": 0.6729, "aerial_won": 0.2655, "total_shots": 0.1388, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 52.0307, "accurate_pass": 48.366, "duels_won": 2.1763, "total_long_balls": 1.7285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7962, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7361, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.914, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.6299, "crosses_total": 0.2029, "crosses_accurate": 0.0037, "touches": 61.6231, "possession_lost": 4.9777, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 1.6627, "aerial_lost": 1.0251, "total_contest": 0.4454, "won_contest": 0.118, "ball_recovery": 2.8798, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.3881, "fouls_drawn": 0.2303, "blocks": 0.1763, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1173, "big_chances_created": 0.0627, "xgot": 0.0089, "ball_carries": 13.1385, "total_progression": 48.6394, "progressive_carries": 0.3641, "key_pass": 0.4444, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.246, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.246, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2327, "tackles": 0.5145, "tackles_won": 0.3134, "clearances": 0.6729, "aerial_won": 0.2655, "total_shots": 0.1388, "rating": 6.9717, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 52.0307, "accurate_pass": 48.366, "duels_won": 2.1763, "total_long_balls": 1.7285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7962, "total_own_half_passes": 23.1166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7361, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.914, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.6299, "crosses_total": 0.2029, "crosses_accurate": 0.0037, "touches": 61.6231, "possession_lost": 4.9777, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 1.6627, "aerial_lost": 1.0251, "total_contest": 0.4454, "won_contest": 0.118, "ball_recovery": 2.8798, "challenges_lost": 0.388, "fouls": 0.3881, "fouls_drawn": 0.2303, "blocks": 0.1763, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1173, "big_chances_created": 0.0627, "xgot": 0.0089, "ball_carries": 13.1385, "total_progression": 48.6394, "progressive_carries": 0.3641, "key_pass": 0.4444, "shots_off_target": 0.02, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.246, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 107, "fifa_rank": 160.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } } ] }, "Ferran Torres": { "player_id": 855833, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0302, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3143, "expected_assists": 0.1374, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3333, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5961, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1977, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083662, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083597, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081789, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.07, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 631, "combined_rank_score": 322.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 418.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.925, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 227.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6836, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ferran Torres", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matheuzinho", "ranking": 626 }, { "player_name": "Naeem Mohammed", "ranking": 627 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Toney", "ranking": 628 }, { "player_name": "Antoine Griezmann", "ranking": 629 }, { "player_name": "Kingsley Coman", "ranking": 630 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Achraf Hakimi", "ranking": 632 }, { "player_name": "Bong-jin Choi", "ranking": 633 }, { "player_name": "João Félix", "ranking": 634 }, { "player_name": "Kai Havertz", "ranking": 635 }, { "player_name": "Makhmud Makhamadzhonov", "ranking": 636 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.607043414228116, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5730474279194597, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0136, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (33 historical appearances) to 23.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.57)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4972, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assists": 0.0712, "assist_rate": 0.0712, "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "shots_on_target": 0.3979, "total_shots": 0.9737, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 9.4527, "accurate_pass": 7.3439, "duels_won": 0.8224, "total_long_balls": 0.2096, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.004, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.0325, "possession_lost": 4.4919, "dispossessed": 0.4478, "duels_lost": 2.0386, "aerial_won": 0.1213, "aerial_lost": 0.3858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1588, "tackles": 0.2735, "clearances": 0.4084, "total_contest": 0.5711, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.583, "fouls": 0.0509, "fouls_drawn": 0.4276, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.1312, "ball_carries": 3.4749, "total_progression": 12.0726, "progressive_carries": 0.5524, "shots_off_target": 0.5758 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.6182, "creative_index": 0.2713, "expectedGoals": 0.2268, "expectedAssists": 0.0456, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.9861 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4971774220466614, "model_output": 0.4972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3752 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0562, "total": 0.4972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.545049 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.079455 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.067944 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048346 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.03502 } ], "others_margin": 0.120155 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03444452956318855, "model_output": 0.0344, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0017, "total": 0.0344, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.581584 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.199233 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.077774 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.059405 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053187 } ], "others_margin": -0.045994 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07123037427663803, "model_output": 0.0712, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.0712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.290678 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.118224 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.11217 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.092113 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.088155 } ], "others_margin": 0.097926 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11344048380851746, "model_output": 0.1134, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": 0.015, "total": 0.1134, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557443 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.340079 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.115436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089783 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.054149 } ], "others_margin": 0.142846 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07852768152952194, "model_output": 0.0785, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 0.0785, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.145999 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.12751 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.093094 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.061925 } ], "others_margin": 0.025939 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.39790812134742737, "model_output": 0.3979, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0948, "total": 0.3979, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587262 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.191753 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.174231 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.086733 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062636 } ], "others_margin": 0.272064 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9736743569374084, "model_output": 0.9737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3251 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0445 } ], "others": 0.1393, "total": 0.9737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.635528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.325075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.054409 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.050403 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.044503 } ], "others_margin": 0.139277 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683579921722412, "model_output": 6.6836, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0742 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 6.6836, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074216 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025579 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021162 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015364 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007074 } ], "others_margin": -0.026083 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5039, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "assists": 0.0722, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "expected_goals": 0.115, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.4033, "total_shots": 0.987, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 9.5813, "accurate_pass": 7.4438, "duels_won": 0.8336, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1609, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3581, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0857, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2369, "possession_lost": 4.553, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 2.0663, "aerial_won": 0.1229, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.161, "tackles": 0.2772, "clearances": 0.414, "total_contest": 0.5789, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0516, "fouls_drawn": 0.4334, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0439, "big_chances_missed": 0.0988, "xgot": 0.133, "ball_carries": 3.5222, "total_progression": 12.2368, "progressive_carries": 0.5599, "shots_off_target": 0.5836 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 23.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.61, "projection_minutes": 27.89, "minutes_scale": 0.8464, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0973, "after": 0.0903 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 631, "fifa_rank": 227.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "scorer_weight": 0.0722, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.0175, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0302, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0302, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "provider_weight": 0.0387, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0146, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dani Olmo": { "player_id": 789071, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.112, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2181, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.261, "expected_assists": 0.6775, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1952, "expected_assists": 0.4391, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "expected_assists": 0.5023, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.2054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1185, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "expected_assists": 0.2054, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 426, "combined_rank_score": 261.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0468, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 }, { "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking": 423 }, { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 }, { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev", "ranking": 429 }, { "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking": 430 }, { "player_name": "Lisandro Martínez", "ranking": 431 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.763, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.597, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0112, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 27.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (41 historical appearances) to 25.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 27.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1742, "expected_assists": 0.0966, "assists": 0.1782, "assist_rate": 0.1782, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0903, "shots_on_target": 0.3023, "total_shots": 0.8984, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.7865, "accurate_pass": 16.5258, "duels_won": 1.9842, "total_long_balls": 0.9875, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8241, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3782, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2108, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1476, "crosses_total": 0.3344, "crosses_accurate": 0.1027, "touches": 23.9138, "possession_lost": 2.806, "dispossessed": 0.4708, "duels_lost": 1.1005, "aerial_won": 0.3094, "aerial_lost": 0.1421, "interceptions": 0.1982, "tackles_won": 0.1224, "tackles": 0.3458, "clearances": 0.7354, "total_contest": 0.6529, "won_contest": 0.3849, "challenges_lost": 0.1994, "fouls": 0.0202, "fouls_drawn": 0.9441, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4696, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.076, "ball_carries": 6.3628, "total_progression": 16.4682, "progressive_carries": 0.2547, "shots_off_target": 0.5961 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.5474, "creative_index": 0.824, "expectedGoals": 0.1358, "expectedAssists": 0.2109, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4031 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1741679906845093, "model_output": 1.1742, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4049 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1417 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0946 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.034 } ], "others": 0.3615, "total": 1.1742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604165 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.254856 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.139936 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.072346 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.042714 } ], "others_margin": 0.368061 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0966096967458725, "model_output": 0.0966, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0255, "total": 0.0966, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548997 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.177462 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.076891 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.060062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049798 } ], "others_margin": 0.305309 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.17818951606750488, "model_output": 0.1782, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0367, "total": 0.1782, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.210645 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.160212 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.127084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.121742 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.107761 } ], "others_margin": 0.230206 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07359997183084488, "model_output": 0.0736, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": 0.003, "total": 0.0736, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.608915 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.209809 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.109005 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079488 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.078449 } ], "others_margin": 0.041279 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09026442468166351, "model_output": 0.0903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.0903, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.528536 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.147646 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.11983 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.104486 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.06695 } ], "others_margin": 0.009561 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3022596538066864, "model_output": 0.3023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1519 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0443, "total": 0.3023, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.628001 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.186186 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.153642 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.094447 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039665 } ], "others_margin": 0.15861 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8983657956123352, "model_output": 0.8984, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2631 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0478, "total": 0.8984, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.542532 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.263144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052204 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.051999 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.030328 } ], "others_margin": 0.047688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0467729568481445, "model_output": 7.0468, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0978 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": 0.0857, "total": 7.0468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.110504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0978 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051595 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02261 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021114 } ], "others_margin": 0.085695 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1873, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assists": 0.1802, "assist_rate": 0.1802, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0913, "shots_on_target": 0.3056, "total_shots": 0.9084, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9857, "accurate_pass": 16.7109, "duels_won": 2.0064, "total_long_balls": 0.9986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8333, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4384, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2725, "crosses_total": 0.3381, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1816, "possession_lost": 2.8374, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.1128, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.2004, "tackles_won": 0.1238, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7436, "total_contest": 0.6602, "won_contest": 0.3892, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0204, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4749, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4341, "total_progression": 16.6526, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.6028 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0061)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1873, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assists": 0.1791, "assist_rate": 0.1791, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.3049, "total_shots": 0.9074, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9857, "accurate_pass": 16.7109, "duels_won": 2.0064, "total_long_balls": 0.9986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8333, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4384, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2725, "crosses_total": 0.3395, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1816, "possession_lost": 2.8374, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.1128, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.1992, "tackles_won": 0.123, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7436, "total_contest": 0.6602, "won_contest": 0.3892, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0203, "fouls_drawn": 0.9512, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4749, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4341, "total_progression": 16.6526, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.6028 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0061, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.244, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "assists": 0.2077, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 21.96, "minutes_scale": 1.1598, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "assists": 0.2077, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1133, "after": 0.124 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 426, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "scorer_weight": 0.095, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.023, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.112, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.112, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "provider_weight": 0.155, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0584, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Anthony Gordon": { "player_id": 914902, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 183, "market_value": 82000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2004, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1238, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.4201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 1.1062, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.46, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.498, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1965, "expected_assists": 0.0754, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9081, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5656, "expected_assists": 0.129, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2531, "expected_assists": 0.1888, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3171, "expected_assists": 0.2526, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "expected_assists": 0.3274, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023999, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4772, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023990, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1199, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 395, "combined_rank_score": 252.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 12.0, "fifa_rank": 413.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.951, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anthony Gordon", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Oybek Bozorov", "ranking": 390 }, { "player_name": "Marlon Freitas", "ranking": 391 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Paulista", "ranking": 392 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Rochet", "ranking": 393 }, { "player_name": "João Palhinha", "ranking": 394 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Jgerenaia", "ranking": 396 }, { "player_name": "Stipe Perica", "ranking": 397 }, { "player_name": "Nurillo Tukhtasinov", "ranking": 398 }, { "player_name": "Min Ji-Hoon", "ranking": 399 }, { "player_name": "Avazbek Ulmasaliyev", "ranking": 400 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.498, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0149, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 26.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 1.5, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (33 historical appearances) to 26.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 26.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1399, "goals": 0.1405, "goal_rate": 0.1405, "shots_on_target": 0.4717, "total_shots": 1.1528, "expected_assists": 0.0864, "key_pass": 0.7359, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 18.76, "total_pass": 7.6472, "accurate_pass": 7.3168, "duels_won": 0.7191, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2089, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8785, "crosses_total": 1.3217, "crosses_accurate": 0.6609, "touches": 10.4072, "possession_lost": 0.9913, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2809, "aerial_lost": 0.2809, "total_contest": 0.3304, "won_contest": 0.3304, "ball_recovery": 0.3887, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "assists": 0.7775, "assist_rate": 0.7775, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7775, "big_chances_missed": 0.5806, "xgot": 0.3211, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4227, "total_progression": 41.1731, "progressive_carries": 3.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6811 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 20.4795, "expectedGoals": 0.3833, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 17.8039, "accuratePass": 21.9662, "totalShots": 2.2011 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13993826508522034, "model_output": 0.1399, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0927 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 0.1399, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.633253 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.256751 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0484 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.045045 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.044383 } ], "others_margin": -0.009162 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14053264260292053, "model_output": 0.1405, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0898 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": 0.011, "total": 0.1405, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.58239 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.167684 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.059359 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.052376 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.042888 } ], "others_margin": 0.081085 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.47171249985694885, "model_output": 0.4717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": 0.0731, "total": 0.4717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.58115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.097833 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.076431 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.065261 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.042875 } ], "others_margin": 0.167913 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1527736186981201, "model_output": 1.1528, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5862 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.179 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.054 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0381 } ], "others": 0.0545, "total": 1.1528, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.586229 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.178994 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.053981 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.03962 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.038147 } ], "others_margin": 0.054419 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08637538552284241, "model_output": 0.0864, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": 0.0197, "total": 0.0864, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.320844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.2487 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.102959 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.06051 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.053646 } ], "others_margin": 0.258778 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7359040379524231, "model_output": 0.7359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0702 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0327 } ], "others": 0.1037, "total": 0.7359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446745 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.145132 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.131814 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.053435 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053131 } ], "others_margin": 0.15204 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.950957298278809, "model_output": 6.951, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0996 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": 0.1278, "total": 6.951, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099625 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.055635 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.038971 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.031916 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029269 } ], "others_margin": 0.127789 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0149, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.142, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.4787, "total_shots": 1.17, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "key_pass": 0.7469, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 18.76, "total_pass": 7.7611, "accurate_pass": 7.4258, "duels_won": 0.7298, "total_long_balls": 0.3353, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3353, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9661, "crosses_total": 1.3414, "crosses_accurate": 0.6707, "touches": 10.5623, "possession_lost": 1.0061, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2851, "aerial_lost": 0.2851, "total_contest": 0.3353, "won_contest": 0.3353, "ball_recovery": 0.3945, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3945, "assists": 0.7891, "assist_rate": 0.7891, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7891, "big_chances_missed": 0.5893, "xgot": 0.3259, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5035, "total_progression": 41.7866, "progressive_carries": 3.0447, "shots_off_target": 0.6912 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0149, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0114)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.142, "goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.141, "shots_on_target": 0.4768, "total_shots": 1.1649, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "key_pass": 0.7469, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 18.76, "total_pass": 7.7611, "accurate_pass": 7.4258, "duels_won": 0.7298, "total_long_balls": 0.3353, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3353, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9661, "crosses_total": 1.3273, "crosses_accurate": 0.6707, "touches": 10.5623, "possession_lost": 1.0061, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2851, "aerial_lost": 0.2851, "total_contest": 0.3353, "won_contest": 0.3353, "ball_recovery": 0.3945, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0012, "fouls_drawn": 0.3936, "assists": 0.7837, "assist_rate": 0.7837, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0012, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7891, "big_chances_missed": 0.5893, "xgot": 0.3259, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 5.5035, "total_progression": 41.7866, "progressive_carries": 3.0447, "shots_off_target": 0.6912 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0114, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2084, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3414, "after": 1.3273 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.7891, "after": 0.7837 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.17, "after": 1.1649 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 26.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2004, "goals": 0.199, "goal_rate": 0.199, "shots_on_target": 0.673, "total_shots": 1.6486, "expected_assists": 0.1238, "key_pass": 1.0543, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 26.48, "total_pass": 10.9549, "accurate_pass": 10.4816, "duels_won": 1.0301, "total_long_balls": 0.4733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4733, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4212, "crosses_total": 1.8735, "crosses_accurate": 0.9467, "touches": 14.9088, "possession_lost": 1.4201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2851, "total_contest": 0.4733, "won_contest": 0.4733, "ball_recovery": 0.5568, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0017, "fouls_drawn": 0.5556, "assists": 1.1062, "assist_rate": 1.1062, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.1138, "big_chances_missed": 0.8318, "xgot": 0.46, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 7.7683, "total_progression": 58.9824, "progressive_carries": 4.2976, "shots_off_target": 0.9756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.498, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.48, "projection_minutes": 18.76, "minutes_scale": 1.4115, "appearance_probability": 0.498 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2004, "goals": 0.199, "goal_rate": 0.199, "shots_on_target": 0.673, "total_shots": 1.6486, "expected_assists": 0.1238, "key_pass": 1.0543, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 26.48, "total_pass": 10.9549, "accurate_pass": 10.4816, "duels_won": 1.0301, "total_long_balls": 0.4733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4733, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4212, "crosses_total": 1.8735, "crosses_accurate": 0.9467, "touches": 14.9088, "possession_lost": 1.4201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2851, "total_contest": 0.4733, "won_contest": 0.4733, "ball_recovery": 0.5568, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0017, "fouls_drawn": 0.5556, "assists": 1.1062, "assist_rate": 1.1062, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.1138, "big_chances_missed": 0.8318, "xgot": 0.46, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 7.7683, "total_progression": 58.9824, "progressive_carries": 4.2976, "shots_off_target": 0.9756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.498, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2004, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.673, "total_shots": 1.6486, "expected_assists": 0.1238, "key_pass": 1.0543, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 26.48, "total_pass": 10.9549, "accurate_pass": 10.4816, "duels_won": 1.0301, "total_long_balls": 0.4733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4733, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4212, "crosses_total": 1.8735, "crosses_accurate": 0.9467, "touches": 14.9088, "possession_lost": 1.4201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2851, "total_contest": 0.4733, "won_contest": 0.4733, "ball_recovery": 0.5568, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0017, "fouls_drawn": 0.5556, "assist_rate": 1.1062, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.1138, "big_chances_missed": 0.8318, "xgot": 0.46, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 7.7683, "total_progression": 58.9824, "progressive_carries": 4.2976, "shots_off_target": 0.9756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.498, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.498, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2004, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.673, "total_shots": 1.6486, "expected_assists": 0.1238, "key_pass": 1.0543, "rating": 6.951, "minutes": 26.48, "total_pass": 10.9549, "accurate_pass": 10.4816, "duels_won": 1.0301, "total_long_balls": 0.4733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4733, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4212, "crosses_total": 1.8735, "crosses_accurate": 0.9467, "touches": 14.9088, "possession_lost": 1.4201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2851, "total_contest": 0.4733, "won_contest": 0.4733, "ball_recovery": 0.5568, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0017, "fouls_drawn": 0.5556, "assist_rate": 1.1062, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.1138, "big_chances_missed": 0.8318, "xgot": 0.46, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 7.7683, "total_progression": 58.9824, "progressive_carries": 4.2976, "shots_off_target": 0.9756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.498, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 395, "fifa_rank": 413.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Raphinha": { "player_id": 831005, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 176, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2233, "goal_rate": 0.2162, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.0029, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2323, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.368, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.96, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8306, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.3796, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.232, "expected_assists": 0.5508, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2971, "expected_assists": 0.0868, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2998, "expected_assists": 0.3009, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7976, "expected_assists": 0.1329, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 9.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 2.0042, "expected_assists": 0.3631, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 9.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3943, "expected_assists": 0.2517, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1777, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083662, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8936, "expected_assists": 0.1794, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 10, "combined_rank_score": 17.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 2.0, "sofascore_rating": 9.1, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 32.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.6882, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking": 13 }, { "player_name": "Adrián", "ranking": 14 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel", "ranking": 15 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.775, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.775, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.96127853832616, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.368, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0156, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 2.0, "assists_per90": 0.4, "prior_reliability": 0.1667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (29 historical appearances) to 27.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.37); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1976, "goals": 0.1858, "goal_rate": 0.1858, "shots_on_target": 0.4868, "total_shots": 1.5104, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "key_pass": 1.0021, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.5064, "accurate_pass": 6.639, "duels_won": 1.1342, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6014, "crosses_total": 0.5065, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4036, "possession_lost": 4.427, "dispossessed": 0.2667, "duels_lost": 1.7393, "aerial_lost": 0.5065, "total_contest": 0.6993, "won_contest": 0.1927, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1927, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3138, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.6276, "clearances": 0.1927, "blocks": 0.3138, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2056, "offsides": 0.3138, "ball_carries": 4.0583, "total_progression": 22.6038, "progressive_carries": 1.6216, "shots_off_target": 1.0236 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 9.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 9.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 9.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 19.474, "expectedGoals": 1.0106, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 15.4906, "accuratePass": 22.6823, "totalShots": 3.5495 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19759730994701385, "model_output": 0.1976, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0982 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": 0.0183, "total": 0.1976, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.687524 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.347923 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.100299 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.081522 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061269 } ], "others_margin": 0.096904 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18580016493797302, "model_output": 0.1858, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1057 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0307, "total": 0.1858, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.7335 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.208377 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.094697 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.080564 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.078884 } ], "others_margin": 0.180682 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4867701828479767, "model_output": 0.4868, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2531 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0275 } ], "others": 0.0612, "total": 0.4868, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.636183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.177396 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.091594 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.066989 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.066734 } ], "others_margin": 0.134055 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5103685855865479, "model_output": 1.5104, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3924 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1808 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.1207 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0814 } ], "others": 0.1588, "total": 1.5104, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.797454 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.392361 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.180787 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.120662 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.081394 } ], "others_margin": 0.158778 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.11488426476716995, "model_output": 0.1149, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": 0.0372, "total": 0.1149, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.34473 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.24786 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.106527 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.100421 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080211 } ], "others_margin": 0.391392 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0020976066589355, "model_output": 1.0021, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2281 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0907 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": 0.3024, "total": 1.0021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.413517 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.176371 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.157671 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.061417 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.056479 } ], "others_margin": 0.359138 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.6881866455078125, "model_output": 7.6882, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.183 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1539 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1225 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1012 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0888 } ], "others": 0.5168, "total": 7.6882, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.182955 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.153898 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.122505 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.101165 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.088844 } ], "others_margin": 0.516829 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0156, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2007, "goals": 0.1887, "goal_rate": 0.1887, "shots_on_target": 0.4944, "total_shots": 1.534, "expected_assists": 0.1167, "key_pass": 1.0177, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.6391, "accurate_pass": 6.7426, "duels_won": 1.1519, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6732, "crosses_total": 0.5144, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6439, "possession_lost": 4.4961, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 1.7664, "aerial_lost": 0.5144, "total_contest": 0.7102, "won_contest": 0.1957, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1957, "fouls": 0.2709, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3187, "tackles_won": 0.3187, "tackles": 0.6374, "clearances": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.3187, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2088, "offsides": 0.3187, "ball_carries": 4.1216, "total_progression": 22.9564, "progressive_carries": 1.6469, "shots_off_target": 1.0396 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0156, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0159)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2007, "goals": 0.1943, "goal_rate": 0.1943, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.5266, "expected_assists": 0.1167, "key_pass": 1.0177, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.6391, "accurate_pass": 6.7426, "duels_won": 1.1519, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6732, "crosses_total": 0.5234, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6439, "possession_lost": 4.4961, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 1.7664, "aerial_lost": 0.5144, "total_contest": 0.7102, "won_contest": 0.1957, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1957, "fouls": 0.2717, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assists": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0017, "interceptions": 0.3136, "tackles_won": 0.3136, "tackles": 0.6374, "clearances": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.3187, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2088, "offsides": 0.3188, "ball_carries": 4.1216, "total_progression": 22.9564, "progressive_carries": 1.6469, "shots_off_target": 1.0396 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0159, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2692, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.5144, "after": 0.5234 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.534, "after": 1.5266 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1887, "after": 0.1943 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3187, "after": 0.3136 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3187, "after": 0.3136 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.37)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2233, "goals": 0.2162, "goal_rate": 0.2162, "shots_on_target": 0.5547, "total_shots": 1.7115, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.1324, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 26.96, "total_pass": 9.6129, "accurate_pass": 7.5026, "duels_won": 1.2817, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2, "crosses_total": 0.5824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4073, "possession_lost": 5.0029, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 1.9655, "aerial_lost": 0.5144, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.2178, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1957, "fouls": 0.3023, "fouls_drawn": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "interceptions": 0.3489, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.7092, "clearances": 0.2178, "blocks": 0.3546, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2323, "offsides": 0.3188, "ball_carries": 4.5862, "total_progression": 25.5441, "progressive_carries": 1.8325, "shots_off_target": 1.1568, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.368, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.96, "projection_minutes": 24.23, "minutes_scale": 1.1127, "appearance_probability": 0.368 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2233, "goals": 0.2162, "goal_rate": 0.2162, "shots_on_target": 0.5547, "total_shots": 1.7115, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.1324, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 26.96, "total_pass": 9.6129, "accurate_pass": 7.5026, "duels_won": 1.2817, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2, "crosses_total": 0.5824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4073, "possession_lost": 5.0029, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 1.9655, "aerial_lost": 0.5144, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.2178, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1957, "fouls": 0.3023, "fouls_drawn": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "interceptions": 0.3489, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.7092, "clearances": 0.2178, "blocks": 0.3546, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2323, "offsides": 0.3188, "ball_carries": 4.5862, "total_progression": 25.5441, "progressive_carries": 1.8325, "shots_off_target": 1.1568, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.368, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2233, "goal_rate": 0.2162, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5547, "total_shots": 1.7115, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.1324, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 26.96, "total_pass": 9.6129, "accurate_pass": 7.5026, "duels_won": 1.2817, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2, "crosses_total": 0.5824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4073, "possession_lost": 5.0029, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 1.9655, "aerial_lost": 0.5144, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.2178, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1957, "fouls": 0.3023, "fouls_drawn": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3489, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.7092, "clearances": 0.2178, "blocks": 0.3546, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2323, "offsides": 0.3188, "ball_carries": 4.5862, "total_progression": 25.5441, "progressive_carries": 1.8325, "shots_off_target": 1.1568, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.368, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.96, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.368, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2233, "goal_rate": 0.2162, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5547, "total_shots": 1.7115, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.1324, "rating": 7.6882, "minutes": 26.96, "total_pass": 9.6129, "accurate_pass": 7.5026, "duels_won": 1.2817, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2, "crosses_total": 0.5824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4073, "possession_lost": 5.0029, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 1.9655, "aerial_lost": 0.5144, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.2178, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1957, "fouls": 0.3023, "fouls_drawn": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3489, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.7092, "clearances": 0.2178, "blocks": 0.3546, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2323, "offsides": 0.3188, "ball_carries": 4.5862, "total_progression": 25.5441, "progressive_carries": 1.8325, "shots_off_target": 1.1568, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.368, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.96, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 10, "fifa_rank": 32.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Dani Olmo": { "player_id": 789071, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.112, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2181, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.261, "expected_assists": 0.6775, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1952, "expected_assists": 0.4391, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "expected_assists": 0.5023, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.2054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1185, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "expected_assists": 0.2054, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 426, "combined_rank_score": 261.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0468, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 }, { "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking": 423 }, { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 }, { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev", "ranking": 429 }, { "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking": 430 }, { "player_name": "Lisandro Martínez", "ranking": 431 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.763, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.597, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0112, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 27.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (41 historical appearances) to 25.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 27.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1742, "expected_assists": 0.0966, "assists": 0.1782, "assist_rate": 0.1782, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0903, "shots_on_target": 0.3023, "total_shots": 0.8984, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.7865, "accurate_pass": 16.5258, "duels_won": 1.9842, "total_long_balls": 0.9875, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8241, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3782, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2108, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1476, "crosses_total": 0.3344, "crosses_accurate": 0.1027, "touches": 23.9138, "possession_lost": 2.806, "dispossessed": 0.4708, "duels_lost": 1.1005, "aerial_won": 0.3094, "aerial_lost": 0.1421, "interceptions": 0.1982, "tackles_won": 0.1224, "tackles": 0.3458, "clearances": 0.7354, "total_contest": 0.6529, "won_contest": 0.3849, "challenges_lost": 0.1994, "fouls": 0.0202, "fouls_drawn": 0.9441, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4696, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.076, "ball_carries": 6.3628, "total_progression": 16.4682, "progressive_carries": 0.2547, "shots_off_target": 0.5961 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.5474, "creative_index": 0.824, "expectedGoals": 0.1358, "expectedAssists": 0.2109, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4031 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1741679906845093, "model_output": 1.1742, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4049 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1417 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0946 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.034 } ], "others": 0.3615, "total": 1.1742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604165 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.254856 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.139936 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.072346 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.042714 } ], "others_margin": 0.368061 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0966096967458725, "model_output": 0.0966, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0255, "total": 0.0966, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548997 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.177462 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.076891 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.060062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049798 } ], "others_margin": 0.305309 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.17818951606750488, "model_output": 0.1782, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0367, "total": 0.1782, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.210645 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.160212 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.127084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.121742 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.107761 } ], "others_margin": 0.230206 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07359997183084488, "model_output": 0.0736, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": 0.003, "total": 0.0736, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.608915 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.209809 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.109005 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079488 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.078449 } ], "others_margin": 0.041279 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09026442468166351, "model_output": 0.0903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.0903, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.528536 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.147646 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.11983 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.104486 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.06695 } ], "others_margin": 0.009561 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3022596538066864, "model_output": 0.3023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1519 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0443, "total": 0.3023, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.628001 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.186186 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.153642 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.094447 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039665 } ], "others_margin": 0.15861 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8983657956123352, "model_output": 0.8984, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2631 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0478, "total": 0.8984, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.542532 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.263144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052204 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.051999 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.030328 } ], "others_margin": 0.047688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0467729568481445, "model_output": 7.0468, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0978 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": 0.0857, "total": 7.0468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.110504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0978 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051595 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02261 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021114 } ], "others_margin": 0.085695 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1873, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assists": 0.1802, "assist_rate": 0.1802, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0913, "shots_on_target": 0.3056, "total_shots": 0.9084, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9857, "accurate_pass": 16.7109, "duels_won": 2.0064, "total_long_balls": 0.9986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8333, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4384, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2725, "crosses_total": 0.3381, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1816, "possession_lost": 2.8374, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.1128, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.2004, "tackles_won": 0.1238, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7436, "total_contest": 0.6602, "won_contest": 0.3892, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0204, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4749, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4341, "total_progression": 16.6526, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.6028 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0061)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1873, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assists": 0.1791, "assist_rate": 0.1791, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.3049, "total_shots": 0.9074, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9857, "accurate_pass": 16.7109, "duels_won": 2.0064, "total_long_balls": 0.9986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8333, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4384, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2725, "crosses_total": 0.3395, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1816, "possession_lost": 2.8374, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.1128, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.1992, "tackles_won": 0.123, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7436, "total_contest": 0.6602, "won_contest": 0.3892, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0203, "fouls_drawn": 0.9512, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4749, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4341, "total_progression": 16.6526, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.6028 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0061, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.244, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "assists": 0.2077, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 21.96, "minutes_scale": 1.1598, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "assists": 0.2077, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.1133, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1133, "after": 0.124 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 426, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "scorer_weight": 0.095, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.023, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3771, "expected_assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.0528, "rating": 7.0468, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8605, "accurate_pass": 19.3819, "duels_won": 2.3271, "total_long_balls": 1.1582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9665, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3077, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0743, "crosses_total": 0.3938, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0467, "possession_lost": 3.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4761, "duels_lost": 1.2907, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8625, "total_contest": 0.7657, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.2016, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5508, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0862, "ball_carries": 7.4625, "total_progression": 19.3143, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.112, "finishing_factor": 1.1387, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.112, "assist_rate": 0.2077, "provider_weight": 0.155, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0584, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ferran Torres": { "player_id": 855833, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0302, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3143, "expected_assists": 0.1374, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3333, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5961, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1977, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083662, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083597, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081789, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.07, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 631, "combined_rank_score": 322.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 418.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.925, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 227.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6836, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ferran Torres", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matheuzinho", "ranking": 626 }, { "player_name": "Naeem Mohammed", "ranking": 627 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Toney", "ranking": 628 }, { "player_name": "Antoine Griezmann", "ranking": 629 }, { "player_name": "Kingsley Coman", "ranking": 630 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Achraf Hakimi", "ranking": 632 }, { "player_name": "Bong-jin Choi", "ranking": 633 }, { "player_name": "João Félix", "ranking": 634 }, { "player_name": "Kai Havertz", "ranking": 635 }, { "player_name": "Makhmud Makhamadzhonov", "ranking": 636 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.607043414228116, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5730474279194597, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0136, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (33 historical appearances) to 23.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.57)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4972, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assists": 0.0712, "assist_rate": 0.0712, "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "shots_on_target": 0.3979, "total_shots": 0.9737, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 9.4527, "accurate_pass": 7.3439, "duels_won": 0.8224, "total_long_balls": 0.2096, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.004, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.0325, "possession_lost": 4.4919, "dispossessed": 0.4478, "duels_lost": 2.0386, "aerial_won": 0.1213, "aerial_lost": 0.3858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1588, "tackles": 0.2735, "clearances": 0.4084, "total_contest": 0.5711, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.583, "fouls": 0.0509, "fouls_drawn": 0.4276, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.1312, "ball_carries": 3.4749, "total_progression": 12.0726, "progressive_carries": 0.5524, "shots_off_target": 0.5758 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.6182, "creative_index": 0.2713, "expectedGoals": 0.2268, "expectedAssists": 0.0456, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.9861 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4971774220466614, "model_output": 0.4972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3752 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0562, "total": 0.4972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.545049 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.079455 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.067944 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048346 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.03502 } ], "others_margin": 0.120155 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03444452956318855, "model_output": 0.0344, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0017, "total": 0.0344, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.581584 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.199233 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.077774 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.059405 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053187 } ], "others_margin": -0.045994 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07123037427663803, "model_output": 0.0712, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.0712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.290678 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.118224 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.11217 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.092113 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.088155 } ], "others_margin": 0.097926 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11344048380851746, "model_output": 0.1134, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": 0.015, "total": 0.1134, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557443 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.340079 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.115436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089783 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.054149 } ], "others_margin": 0.142846 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07852768152952194, "model_output": 0.0785, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 0.0785, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.145999 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.12751 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.093094 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.061925 } ], "others_margin": 0.025939 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.39790812134742737, "model_output": 0.3979, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0948, "total": 0.3979, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587262 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.191753 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.174231 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.086733 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062636 } ], "others_margin": 0.272064 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9736743569374084, "model_output": 0.9737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3251 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0445 } ], "others": 0.1393, "total": 0.9737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.635528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.325075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.054409 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.050403 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.044503 } ], "others_margin": 0.139277 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683579921722412, "model_output": 6.6836, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0742 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 6.6836, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074216 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025579 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021162 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015364 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007074 } ], "others_margin": -0.026083 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5039, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "assists": 0.0722, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "expected_goals": 0.115, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.4033, "total_shots": 0.987, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 9.5813, "accurate_pass": 7.4438, "duels_won": 0.8336, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1609, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3581, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0857, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2369, "possession_lost": 4.553, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 2.0663, "aerial_won": 0.1229, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.161, "tackles": 0.2772, "clearances": 0.414, "total_contest": 0.5789, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0516, "fouls_drawn": 0.4334, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0439, "big_chances_missed": 0.0988, "xgot": 0.133, "ball_carries": 3.5222, "total_progression": 12.2368, "progressive_carries": 0.5599, "shots_off_target": 0.5836 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 23.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.61, "projection_minutes": 27.89, "minutes_scale": 0.8464, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.81 (squad xG sum 2.3560, xG scale 1.6193, xA scale 1.8335, team xA 2.48 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.815, "squad_xg_sum": 2.356, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3524, "team_expected_assists": 2.4798, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6193, "xa_scale": 1.8335, "opponent_lambda": 1.493, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0973, "after": 0.0903 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 631, "fifa_rank": 227.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "scorer_weight": 0.0722, "squad_weight_total": 4.1327, "weight_share": 0.0175, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.5264, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.5264, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6495, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6408 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.6408, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6408, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5698 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4265, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3414, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1045, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.407, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0302, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0302, "assist_rate": 0.0611, "provider_weight": 0.0387, "squad_weight_total": 2.6527, "weight_share": 0.0146, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6534, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6534, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3439 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.3439, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3439, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3357, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.81, "expected_assists": 2.48, "total_shots": 21, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 650, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 7.22, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Isco", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Xavi Espart" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "xg_contribution": 0.1435, "xg_multiplier": 0.7941, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xavi Espart", "role": "RB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isco (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Xavi Espart in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Gerard Martín", "Pau Cubarsí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.825, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2598, "xg_multiplier": 0.9121, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Gerard Martín and Pau Cubarsí in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €65M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.260 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Gerard Martín", "Pau Cubarsí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.825, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2398, "xg_multiplier": 0.7678, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gerard Martín and Pau Cubarsí in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €65M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.240 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Gerard Martín", "Pau Cubarsí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.825, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1698, "xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Gerard Martín and Pau Cubarsí in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €65M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Facundo Bernal", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Fermín López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.282, "xg_contribution": 0.0319, "xg_multiplier": 0.8271, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 113000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.718 } ], "duel_analysis": "Facundo Bernal (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Fermín López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €113M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Fermín López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "xg_contribution": 0.0656, "xg_multiplier": 0.7623, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 113000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Fermín López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €113M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Marc Bartra" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "xg_contribution": 0.7541, "xg_multiplier": 1.306, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Bartra", "role": "RB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Marc Bartra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 69%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.31 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.754 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Héctor Bellerín" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.642, "xg_contribution": 0.4114, "xg_multiplier": 1.2376, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Héctor Bellerín", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.358 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Héctor Bellerín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.411 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Jesus", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.607, "defenders": [ "Valentín Gómez", "Diego Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.487, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "xg_contribution": 0.3326, "xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Valentín Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 }, { "player": "Diego Llorente", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Jesus (ST) is evenly matched against Valentín Gómez and Diego Llorente in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.333 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rodri", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Facundo Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "xg_contribution": 0.1183, "xg_multiplier": 1.2359, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.42 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodri (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Facundo Bernal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €10M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Fermín López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 113000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.896, "defenders": [ "Facundo Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "xg_contribution": 0.2734, "xg_multiplier": 1.1729, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.432 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fermín López (CM) is slightly favored against Facundo Bernal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€113M vs €10M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.273 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Facundo Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.56, "xg_contribution": 0.0932, "xg_multiplier": 1.1624, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.44 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CM) is slightly favored against Facundo Bernal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €10M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.489, "away_midfield_power": 0.878, "home_creative_power": 0.511, "away_creative_power": 1.009, "home_defensive_power": 0.441, "away_defensive_power": 0.746, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.358, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Isco", "Facundo Bernal", "Pablo Fornals" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Rodri", "Fermín López", "Pedri" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 45.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 54.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 3.6, "key_personal_duel": "Facundo Bernal vs Pedri", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.956, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.059 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.493, "away_lambda": 3.815, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Isco": { "opponents": [ "Xavi Espart", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Gerard Martín", "Pau Cubarsí" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Gerard Martín", "Pau Cubarsí" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Gerard Martín", "Pau Cubarsí" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Facundo Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Fermín López", "Rodri", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Bartra": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Héctor Bellerín": { "opponents": [ "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Valentín Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Xavi Espart": { "opponents": [ "Isco" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gerard Martín": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Cucho Hernández", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Cucho Hernández", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Bernal", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Marc Bartra" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "Héctor Bellerín" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gabriel Jesus": { "opponents": [ "Valentín Gómez", "Diego Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Bernal", "Isco" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Facundo Bernal vs Pedri). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 1.98. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9792, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0199, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0732, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8803, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0029, "home_midfield_factor": 0.956, "away_midfield_factor": 1.059, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5471, "away_avg_quality": 0.8109, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2638, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.7662, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.6689, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.6025, "elite_count_gap": -6, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5474, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3011, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1752, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9104, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0203 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.956, "result": 0.9754 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9657 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1105 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9423, "result": 1.0464 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.8982 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8803, "result": 0.7907 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0199, "result": 0.8106 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8106, "result": 0.8106, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5474, "factor": 0.8248, "pre": 0.8106, "result": 0.6686 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6686 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 0.889 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.4843 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4843, "result": 1.484, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.781 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 1.781, "result": 1.6919, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9553, "pre": 1.6919, "result": 1.616 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.616 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9239, "input_total": 5.308, "result": 1.4931 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.4931, "result": 1.493, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.493 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.983, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.8247 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.059, "result": 1.9324 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.9904 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.9904 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.189, "result": 2.3666 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9792, "result": 2.3173 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0029, "result": 2.3239 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0732, "result": 2.3971 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 2.3971, "result": 2.3971, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5474, "factor": 1.3011, "pre": 2.3971, "result": 3.1188 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 3.1188 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 3.339 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 3.3757 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 3.3757, "result": 3.376, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 3.444 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 3.444, "result": 3.6162, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1419, "pre": 3.6162, "result": 4.129 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 4.129 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9239, "input_total": 5.308, "result": 3.8149 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 3.8149, "result": 3.815, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 3.815 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.5474, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1419, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9553, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.6919, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 3.6162, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4843, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 3.3757, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.493, "final_away_lambda": 3.815 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9423, "attack_index": 1.053, "defense_concede_index": 0.827, "form_multiplier": 0.979, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.63, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.28, "team_ppg": 1.94, "opponent_ppg": 2.3 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.189, "attack_index": 1.7, "defense_concede_index": 0.891, "form_multiplier": 1.021, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.63, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.38, "team_ppg": 2.3, "opponent_ppg": 1.94 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Betis vs Barcelona. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.484, Away 3.376). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.493, Away 3.815 (most likely score 1-3).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.493, "away_lambda": 3.815, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.484, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 3.376 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:32:44Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }