{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0814, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2138, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0822 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0814 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0724 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0723 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0542 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0236, "0-1": 0.0453, "0-2": 0.0458, "0-3": 0.0305, "0-4": 0.0152, "0-5": 0.0061, "0-6": 0.002, "0-7": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0402, "1-1": 0.0822, "1-2": 0.0814, "1-3": 0.0542, "1-4": 0.027, "1-5": 0.0108, "1-6": 0.0036, "1-7": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0363, "2-1": 0.0724, "2-2": 0.0723, "2-3": 0.0481, "2-4": 0.024, "2-5": 0.0096, "2-6": 0.0032, "2-7": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0215, "3-1": 0.0429, "3-2": 0.0428, "3-3": 0.0285, "3-4": 0.0142, "3-5": 0.0057, "3-6": 0.0019, "3-7": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0095, "4-1": 0.019, "4-2": 0.019, "4-3": 0.0126, "4-4": 0.0063, "4-5": 0.0025, "4-6": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0034, "5-1": 0.0068, "5-2": 0.0067, "5-3": 0.0045, "5-4": 0.0022, "5-5": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.001, "6-1": 0.002, "6-2": 0.002, "6-3": 0.0013, "6-4": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0005, "7-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3496, "draw": 0.2138, "away_win": 0.4366 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7265, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2735, "btts_yes": 0.7184, "btts_no": 0.2816, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1359, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1693 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 7.09, "ATR": 6.86, "GK": 7.07 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 7.08, "ATR": 6.95, "GK": 7.06 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Everton vs Chelsea. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Everton 3W-3D-4L vs Chelsea over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Thierno Barry, João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — James Garner vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.14. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.776, "away_lambda": 1.996, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 0.9929, "away_multiplier": 1.0071 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0822, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3496, "draw": 0.2138, "away_win": 0.4366 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4366, "fair_spread": -0.22, "fair_total": 3.772, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.776, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.996, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7265, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7184, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1359, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1693, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Thierno Barry (Everton)", "estimate": 0.5481, "probability": 0.422, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "João Pedro (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.5848, "probability": 0.4428, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Everton)", "estimate": 0.357, "probability": 0.3002, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Cole Palmer (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.2271, "probability": 0.2032, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.772, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 947, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.3, "possession_home_pct": 50.1, "possession_away_pct": 49.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4366, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.22 goals and fair total 3.77.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Everton must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Chelsea chance creation leans on João Pedro against Harrison Armstrong, Jarrad Branthwaite in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Thierno Barry; bench watchlist: Hayden Hackney, Tyrique George, Beto.", "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through João Pedro, Cole Palmer; bench watchlist: Estêvão, Geovany Quenda, Valentín Barco.", "Assist usage should flow through Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Pedro Neto; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.89 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Everton is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Everton wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Everton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Thierno Barry": { "player_id": 1395746, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 195, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5481, "goal_rate": 0.4978, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0521, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 9.384, "dispossessed": 0.7622, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 6, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5868, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9761, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Josh Acheampong", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Josh Acheampong", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.422, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0508, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363876, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8989, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 10, "duels_won": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier 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"match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6715, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 8.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2972, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3200, "combined_rank_score": 1156.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1802.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8295, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Thierno Barry", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Saïd El Mala", "ranking": 3195 }, { "player_name": "Fran García", "ranking": 3196 }, { "player_name": "Rômulo", "ranking": 3197 }, { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 }, { "player_name": "Juan Iglesias", "ranking": 3199 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tiago Palacios", "ranking": 3201 }, { "player_name": "Frederik Rønnow", "ranking": 3202 }, { "player_name": "David Affengruber", "ranking": 3203 }, { "player_name": "Kike Salas", "ranking": 3204 }, { "player_name": "Franck Honorat", "ranking": 3205 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": 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0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7103 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1776 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0758 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0537 } ], "others": 0.188, "total": 2.2612, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.710282 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.177602 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.075781 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.060266 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053688 } ], "others_margin": 0.188044 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2130446434021, "model_output": 7.213, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0242 } ], "others": 0.0574, "total": 7.213, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114909 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.112349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026543 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024624 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024176 } ], "others_margin": 0.057389 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.1705, "assists": 0.1357, "assist_rate": 0.1357, "expected_goals": 0.1891, "goals": 0.2285, "goal_rate": 0.2285, "shots_on_target": 0.8534, "total_shots": 2.285, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7027, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 0.4079, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3949, "tackles_won": 0.9281, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4434, "fouls_drawn": 1.8319, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.3083, "xgot": 0.2435, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.4316 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0105, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0103)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.1705, "assists": 0.1343, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "expected_goals": 0.1891, "goals": 0.2312, "goal_rate": 0.2312, "shots_on_target": 0.8549, "total_shots": 2.287, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 0.4079, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.3083, "xgot": 0.2435, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.4316 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0103, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.986, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.7027, "after": 3.7103 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9281, "after": 0.9338 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.1705, "assists": 0.1343, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "expected_goals": 0.1891, "goals": 0.2312, "goal_rate": 0.2312, "shots_on_target": 0.8549, "total_shots": 2.287, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 0.4079, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.3083, "xgot": 0.2435, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.4316 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.1705, "assists": 0.1343, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "expected_goals": 0.1628, "goals": 0.199, "goal_rate": 0.199, "shots_on_target": 0.7359, "total_shots": 1.9686, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.2654, "xgot": 0.2096, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.2323, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "skill_edge": -0.0387, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.8002, "defender_skill": 0.8862, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "market_value": 64000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8862 } ], "xg_override": 0.1628 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4079, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.287, "after": 1.9686 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4316, "after": 1.2323 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8549, "after": 0.7359 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3083, "after": 0.2654 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2435, "after": 0.2096 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2312, "after": 0.199 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1891, "after": 0.1628 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.1705, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1628, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7359, "total_shots": 1.9686, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.2654, "xgot": 0.2096, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.2323, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.232, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2294, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7359, "total_shots": 1.9686, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.2654, "xgot": 0.2954, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.2323, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1701, "creation_factor": 0.8358 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1628, "after": 0.2294 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1705, "after": 0.232 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.232, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2294, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7359, "total_shots": 1.9686, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.2654, "xgot": 0.2954, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.2323, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1701, "creation_factor": 0.8358, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 458, "fifa_rank": 507.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.232, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2294, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7359, "total_shots": 1.9686, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.2654, "xgot": 0.2954, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.2323, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.205, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1701, "creation_factor": 0.8358, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.205, "goal_rate": 0.199, "scorer_weight": 0.2684, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.1337, "finishing_factor": 1.1701, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8567, "expected_assists": 0.232, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2294, "goal_rate": 0.199, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7359, "total_shots": 1.9686, "rating": 7.213, "minutes": 88.74, "total_pass": 39.2183, "accurate_pass": 33.5838, "duels_won": 5.3839, "total_long_balls": 2.1976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7613, "total_own_half_passes": 11.203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2317, "crosses_total": 3.7103, "crosses_accurate": 0.7136, "touches": 59.9167, "possession_lost": 13.4484, "dispossessed": 2.0021, "duels_lost": 5.0608, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6245, "interceptions": 0.3908, "tackles_won": 0.9338, "tackles": 1.9293, "clearances": 0.5207, "total_contest": 2.3964, "won_contest": 1.223, "challenges_lost": 0.8256, "fouls": 0.4439, "fouls_drawn": 1.8283, "blocks": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.4934, "big_chances_missed": 0.2654, "xgot": 0.2954, "ball_carries": 19.6372, "total_progression": 90.7592, "progressive_carries": 2.9567, "shots_off_target": 1.2323, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence 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0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1428 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 1.0855, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142836 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.030869 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.02344 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.018608 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013871 } ], "others_margin": -0.027779 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.819637775421143, "model_output": 6.8196, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 6.8196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028193 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.021558 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018204 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.006313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006294 } ], "others_margin": -0.021869 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0137, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8555, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "assists": 0.0658, "assist_rate": 0.0658, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.0977, "shots_on_target": 0.3689, "total_shots": 1.1004, "rating": 6.8196, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 31.7292, "accurate_pass": 26.6694, "duels_won": 4.0096, "total_long_balls": 1.5019, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8516, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4997, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1698, "crosses_total": 0.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.1757, "possession_lost": 8.9075, "dispossessed": 0.9197, "duels_lost": 3.8476, "aerial_won": 0.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.8637, "interceptions": 0.5497, "tackles_won": 1.1414, "tackles": 1.4831, "clearances": 1.6347, "total_contest": 1.2327, "won_contest": 0.6438, "challenges_lost": 0.3013, "fouls": 1.1741, "fouls_drawn": 1.1245, "blocks": 0.3831, "big_chances_created": 0.2519, "big_chances_missed": 0.2425, "xgot": 0.0106, "ball_carries": 12.8742, "total_progression": 34.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.7315 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0137, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0172)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8555, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "assists": 0.073, "assist_rate": 0.073, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.3626, "total_shots": 1.0815, "rating": 6.8196, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 31.7292, "accurate_pass": 26.6694, "duels_won": 4.0096, "total_long_balls": 1.5019, "accurate_long_balls": 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1.0941, "rating": 6.8196, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 31.7292, "accurate_pass": 26.6694, "duels_won": 4.0096, "total_long_balls": 1.5019, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8516, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4997, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1698, "crosses_total": 0.2735, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.1757, "possession_lost": 8.9075, "dispossessed": 0.9197, "duels_lost": 3.8476, "aerial_won": 0.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.8637, "interceptions": 0.5737, "tackles_won": 1.1469, "tackles": 1.4831, "clearances": 1.6347, "total_contest": 1.2327, "won_contest": 0.6438, "challenges_lost": 0.3013, "fouls": 1.1957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1219, "blocks": 0.3831, "big_chances_created": 0.2519, "big_chances_missed": 0.2425, "xgot": 0.0106, "ball_carries": 12.8742, "total_progression": 34.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.7315, "opponent_faced": "Pedro Neto, João Pedro, Moisés Caicedo", "matchup_zone": "Shadow 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15.1698, "crosses_total": 0.2735, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.1757, "possession_lost": 8.9075, "dispossessed": 0.9197, "duels_lost": 3.8476, "aerial_won": 0.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.8637, "interceptions": 0.5737, "tackles_won": 1.1469, "tackles": 1.4831, "clearances": 1.6347, "total_contest": 1.2327, "won_contest": 0.6438, "challenges_lost": 0.3013, "fouls": 1.1957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1219, "blocks": 0.3831, "big_chances_created": 0.2519, "big_chances_missed": 0.2425, "xgot": 0.0106, "ball_carries": 12.8742, "total_progression": 34.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.2502, "shots_off_target": 0.7315, "opponent_faced": "Pedro Neto, João Pedro, Moisés Caicedo", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8555, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "assist_rate": 0.073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1364, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3626, "total_shots": 1.0941, "rating": 6.8196, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 31.7292, "accurate_pass": 26.6694, "duels_won": 4.0096, "total_long_balls": 1.5019, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8516, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4997, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0067, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1698, "crosses_total": 0.2735, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.1757, "possession_lost": 8.9075, "dispossessed": 0.9197, "duels_lost": 3.8476, "aerial_won": 0.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.8637, "interceptions": 0.5737, "tackles_won": 1.1469, "tackles": 1.4831, "clearances": 1.6347, 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0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.268928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.083891 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053707 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.033331 } ], "others_margin": -0.001564 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5747984051704407, "model_output": 0.5748, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0217, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2145, "tackles": 1.4914, "tackles_won": 0.8768, "clearances": 5.7738, "aerial_won": 2.2876, "total_shots": 0.5873, "rating": 6.841, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 49.8872, "accurate_pass": 43.0345, "duels_won": 4.5499, "total_long_balls": 5.494, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4863, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3509, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6836, "crosses_total": 0.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8239, "possession_lost": 8.5411, "dispossessed": 0.2139, "duels_lost": 2.5349, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.1844, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.6379, "challenges_lost": 0.5991, "fouls": 0.4717, "fouls_drawn": 0.7779, "blocks": 1.4176, "goals": 0.0461, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.1089, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.1089, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.1089, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0682, "after": 0.0961 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0388, "after": 0.0528 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3145, "fifa_rank": 1771.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "scorer_weight": 0.0769, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.0383, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles": 1.388, "tackles_won": 0.759, "clearances": 6.383, "aerial_won": 3.5493, "total_shots": 0.7017, "rating": 6.8712, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0514, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0514, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "provider_weight": 0.066, "squad_weight_total": 1.4683, "weight_share": 0.0449, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.4462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4462, "runner_up": "Jack Grealish", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "James Tarkowski": { "player_id": 145188, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 185, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0, 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}, { "player_name": "Pierre-Emile Højbjerg", "ranking": 769 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sergi Altimira", "ranking": 771 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Oluwayemi", "ranking": 772 }, { "player_name": "Eric Bailly", "ranking": 773 }, { "player_name": "Bobir Abdikholikov", "ranking": 774 }, { "player_name": "Saidazamat Mirsaidov", "ranking": 775 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.5643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037473 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035798 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032746 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.01677 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.016541 } ], "others_margin": -0.016496 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.991136074066162, "model_output": 6.9911, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1494, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9167, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5636, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1164, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6901, "fouls_drawn": 1.3704, "blocks": 1.0816, "goals": 0.1514, "goal_rate": 0.1514, "assists": 0.1989, "assist_rate": 0.1989, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.2463, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.0946, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "assists": 0.1971, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.0946, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1494, "after": 1.1661 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3704, "after": 1.3806 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "assists": 0.1971, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.0946, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "assists": 0.1971, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.0946, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.0946, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.1333, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0447, "after": 0.063 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0386, "after": 0.0525 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.1333, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 770, "fifa_rank": 664.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.1333, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "scorer_weight": 0.0788, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.0392, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.4694, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 6.2, "aerial_won": 3.1035, "total_shots": 0.5675, "rating": 6.9911, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5538, "accurate_pass": 41.8693, "duels_won": 7.1362, "total_long_balls": 5.73, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.3817, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4875, "crosses_total": 0.1153, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 64.682, "possession_lost": 8.1913, "dispossessed": 0.0081, "duels_lost": 2.2079, "aerial_lost": 1.3577, "total_contest": 0.1409, "won_contest": 0.0153, "ball_recovery": 3.1132, "challenges_lost": 0.0515, "fouls": 0.6884, "fouls_drawn": 1.3806, "blocks": 1.0816, "goal_rate": 0.1545, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.2486, "big_chances_created": 0.1704, "xgot": 0.1333, "ball_carries": 15.2409, "total_progression": 88.4316, "progressive_carries": 0.8692, "key_pass": 0.3894, "shots_off_target": 0.3173, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0511, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0511, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "provider_weight": 0.0656, "squad_weight_total": 1.4683, "weight_share": 0.0447, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.4462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4462, "runner_up": "Jack Grealish", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ainsley Maitland-Niles": { "player_id": 352768, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 178, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3364, "crosses_total": 2.0094, "crosses_accurate": 0.7225, "touches": 50.5338, "possession_lost": 10.0402, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 2.3999, "aerial_lost": 1.1131, "total_contest": 1.3367, "won_contest": 0.9461, "ball_recovery": 2.1246, "challenges_lost": 0.5643, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.332, "blocks": 0.332, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3905, "assist_rate": 0.3905, "expected_goals": 0.0077, "expected_assists": 0.2624, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7225, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7614, "total_progression": 53.8761, "progressive_carries": 1.8424, "key_pass": 1.7272, "shots_off_target": 0.5962 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3364, "crosses_total": 2.0094, "crosses_accurate": 0.7225, "touches": 50.5338, "possession_lost": 10.0402, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 2.3999, "aerial_lost": 1.1131, "total_contest": 1.3367, "won_contest": 0.9461, "ball_recovery": 2.1246, "challenges_lost": 0.5643, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.332, "blocks": 0.332, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3905, "assist_rate": 0.3905, "expected_goals": 0.0077, "expected_assists": 0.2624, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7225, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7614, "total_progression": 53.8761, "progressive_carries": 1.8424, "key_pass": 1.7272, "shots_off_target": 0.5962 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3364, "crosses_total": 2.0094, "crosses_accurate": 0.7225, "touches": 50.5338, "possession_lost": 10.0402, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 2.3999, "aerial_lost": 1.1131, "total_contest": 1.3367, "won_contest": 0.9461, "ball_recovery": 2.1246, "challenges_lost": 0.5643, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.332, "blocks": 0.332, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3905, "assist_rate": 0.3905, "expected_goals": 0.0077, "expected_assists": 0.2624, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7225, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7614, "total_progression": 53.8761, "progressive_carries": 1.8424, "key_pass": 1.7272, "shots_off_target": 0.5962, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3364, "crosses_total": 2.0094, "crosses_accurate": 0.7225, "touches": 50.5338, "possession_lost": 10.0402, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 2.3999, "aerial_lost": 1.1131, "total_contest": 1.3367, "won_contest": 0.9461, "ball_recovery": 2.1246, "challenges_lost": 0.5643, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.332, "blocks": 0.332, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0077, "expected_assists": 0.2624, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7225, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7614, "total_progression": 53.8761, "progressive_carries": 1.8424, "key_pass": 1.7272, "shots_off_target": 0.5962, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3364, "crosses_total": 2.0094, "crosses_accurate": 0.7225, "touches": 50.5338, "possession_lost": 10.0402, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 2.3999, "aerial_lost": 1.1131, "total_contest": 1.3367, "won_contest": 0.9461, "ball_recovery": 2.1246, "challenges_lost": 0.5643, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.332, "blocks": 0.332, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0109, "expected_assists": 0.357, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7225, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7614, "total_progression": 53.8761, "progressive_carries": 1.8424, "key_pass": 1.7272, "shots_off_target": 0.5962, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8666, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2624, "after": 0.357 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3364, "crosses_total": 2.0094, "crosses_accurate": 0.7225, "touches": 50.5338, "possession_lost": 10.0402, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 2.3999, "aerial_lost": 1.1131, "total_contest": 1.3367, "won_contest": 0.9461, "ball_recovery": 2.1246, "challenges_lost": 0.5643, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.332, "blocks": 0.332, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0109, "expected_assists": 0.357, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.7225, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7614, "total_progression": 53.8761, "progressive_carries": 1.8424, "key_pass": 1.7272, "shots_off_target": 0.5962, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8666, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2124, "fifa_rank": 1464.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3364, "crosses_total": 2.0094, "crosses_accurate": 0.7225, "touches": 50.5338, "possession_lost": 10.0402, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 2.3999, "aerial_lost": 1.1131, "total_contest": 1.3367, "won_contest": 0.9461, "ball_recovery": 2.1246, "challenges_lost": 0.5643, "fouls": 0.0, 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"goal_probability": 0.0108, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0094, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 0.8666, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.729, "tackles": 1.8053, "tackles_won": 1.1241, "clearances": 2.3028, "aerial_won": 0.7953, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 84.48, "total_pass": 31.5772, "accurate_pass": 26.7774, "duels_won": 3.9514, "total_long_balls": 2.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4409, 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"matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0108, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3002, "finishing_factor": 0.8666, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3002, "assist_rate": 0.3905, "provider_weight": 0.4462, "squad_weight_total": 1.4683, "weight_share": 0.3039, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.4462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4462, "runner_up": "Jack Grealish", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jordan Pickford": { "player_id": 138530, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 185, "market_value": 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7.0664, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.077086 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.023429 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008328 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.007825 } ], "others_margin": -0.023344 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0019, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9185, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0214, "fouls_drawn": 0.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13900000, "quality_factor": 0.5671, "boost_factor": 1.0019, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9281, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0212, "fouls_drawn": 0.395, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3851, "after": 0.395 }, { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9185, "after": 2.9281 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9281, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0212, "fouls_drawn": 0.395, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9281, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0212, "fouls_drawn": 0.395, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9825, "shots_faced": 18.8, "expected_saves": 4.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.59, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.9825 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9281, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0212, "fouls_drawn": 0.395, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9825, "shots_faced": 18.8, "expected_saves": 4.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.59, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9281, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0212, "fouls_drawn": 0.395, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9825, "shots_faced": 19.0, "expected_saves": 4.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.6, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 18.8, "after": 19.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.6, "after": 4.65 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.59, "after": 1.6 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9281, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0212, "fouls_drawn": 0.395, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9825, "shots_faced": 19.0, "expected_saves": 4.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.6, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 96, "fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9281, "goals_prevented": 0.0492, "rating": 7.0664, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.3044, "accurate_pass": 26.1657, "total_long_balls": 20.9287, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0342, "touches": 50.1134, "clearances": 1.2851, "ball_recovery": 9.6046, "high_claims": 0.8498, "punches": 0.8246, "aerial_won": 0.164, "sweeper_actions": 1.2668, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2662, "saves_inside_box": 1.7827, "possession_lost": 14.2597, "duels_won": 0.6676, "duels_lost": 0.0227, "total_contest": 0.1087, "won_contest": 0.1087, "fouls": 0.0212, "fouls_drawn": 0.395, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.2276, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9825, "shots_faced": 19.0, "expected_saves": 4.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.6, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.555906532848534, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.237, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (38 historical appearances) to 14.6 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.887807 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.051438 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.049216 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.03174 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028308 } ], "others_margin": -0.000523 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.38039731979370117, "model_output": 0.3804, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5271 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8144 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1184 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.1242, "total": 0.4887, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.89482 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.190943 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.038302 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.037792 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.029777 } ], "others_margin": -0.226308 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17383340001106262, "model_output": 0.1738, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0953 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0398, "total": 0.1738, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.217404 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095268 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.031876 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011553 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008272 } ], "others_margin": -0.039697 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7143144607543945, "model_output": 6.7143, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.7143, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017414 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.009661 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009213 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008701 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.006989 } ], "others_margin": -0.01841 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5197, "tackles": 0.6764, "tackles_won": 0.3828, "clearances": 1.2531, "aerial_won": 0.4918, "total_shots": 0.1749, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 41.3979, "accurate_pass": 34.0379, "duels_won": 5.3143, "total_long_balls": 4.7809, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3531, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6983, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6879, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6996, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.35, "crosses_total": 2.4865, "crosses_accurate": 0.367, "touches": 66.6571, "possession_lost": 14.6921, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 3.7779, "aerial_lost": 1.1567, "total_contest": 0.8153, "won_contest": 0.3149, "ball_recovery": 4.8171, "challenges_lost": 1.223, "fouls": 0.6943, "fouls_drawn": 0.6521, "blocks": 0.5803, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 22.6996, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.35, "crosses_total": 2.4645, "crosses_accurate": 0.367, "touches": 66.6571, "possession_lost": 14.6921, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 3.7779, "aerial_lost": 1.1567, "total_contest": 0.8153, "won_contest": 0.3149, "ball_recovery": 4.8171, "challenges_lost": 1.223, "fouls": 0.6883, "fouls_drawn": 0.6475, "blocks": 0.5803, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.0077, "big_chances_created": 0.0006, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 11.635, "total_progression": 33.0797, "progressive_carries": 0.7061, "key_pass": 0.5487, "shots_off_target": 0.167 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.4865, "after": 2.4645 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6943, "after": 0.6883 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4169, "tackles": 0.547, "tackles_won": 0.3064, "clearances": 1.0133, "aerial_won": 0.3977, "total_shots": 0.1413, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 14.56, "total_pass": 33.4769, "accurate_pass": 27.5251, "duels_won": 4.2975, "total_long_balls": 3.8661, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0942, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4949, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.3563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0303, "crosses_total": 1.9929, "crosses_accurate": 0.2968, "touches": 53.903, "possession_lost": 11.8809, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 3.055, "aerial_lost": 1.1567, "total_contest": 0.6593, "won_contest": 0.2546, "ball_recovery": 3.8954, "challenges_lost": 1.223, "fouls": 0.5566, "fouls_drawn": 0.5236, "blocks": 0.4693, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1487 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 0.1154, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.609581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.30522 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.271483 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.112568 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.048723 } ], "others_margin": -0.012915 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3434455096721649, "model_output": 0.3434, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 0.3434, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.416923 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.243624 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067338 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043936 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030771 } ], "others_margin": 0.015827 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.694648265838623, "model_output": 6.6946, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0918 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 6.6946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091795 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033966 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019956 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012934 } ], "others_margin": -0.027591 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0337, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3461, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.1193, "total_shots": 0.3551, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 15.73, "total_pass": 11.6518, "accurate_pass": 10.3277, "duels_won": 0.1712, "total_long_balls": 0.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.912, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.2014, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8093, "total_progression": 21.4101, "progressive_carries": 0.621, "shots_off_target": 0.2358 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0337, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0236)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3461, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0484, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1165, "total_shots": 0.3502, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 15.73, "total_pass": 11.6518, "accurate_pass": 10.3277, "duels_won": 0.1712, "total_long_balls": 0.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.9042, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0034, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.2001, "fouls_drawn": 0.0103, "blocks": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8093, "total_progression": 21.4101, "progressive_carries": 0.621, "shots_off_target": 0.2358 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0236, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1748, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0103 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.912, "after": 0.9042 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.73, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0348, "after": 0.0257 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0503, "after": 0.0359 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2871, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0251, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0251, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "scorer_weight": 0.0321, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0251, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0347, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "provider_weight": 0.0439, "squad_weight_total": 1.4683, "weight_share": 0.0299, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.4462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4462, "runner_up": "Jack Grealish", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Merlin Röhl": { "player_id": 1064082, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 34, "height": 191, "market_value": 18400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0486, 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"importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 6.7012, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067035 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02791 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007955 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.007349 } ], "others_margin": -0.026585 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": 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"stats": { "key_pass": 0.5653, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1436, "total_shots": 0.4644, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 7.3965, "accurate_pass": 5.1085, "duels_won": 2.8553, "total_long_balls": 0.1283, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9413, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4931, "crosses_total": 0.5472, "crosses_accurate": 0.3017, "touches": 14.0811, "possession_lost": 4.6666, "dispossessed": 0.5748, "duels_lost": 3.0377, "aerial_won": 0.707, "aerial_lost": 0.9864, "interceptions": 0.1284, "tackles_won": 0.7087, "tackles": 1.723, "clearances": 0.1951, "total_contest": 0.3448, "won_contest": 0.1595, "challenges_lost": 0.1205, "fouls": 0.6467, "fouls_drawn": 0.2635, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0788, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2201, "total_progression": 9.1225, "progressive_carries": 0.1405, "shots_off_target": 0.3208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.321, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.321, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"player_id": 1403061, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 181, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 45, 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"opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.1469, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, 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0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4564, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", 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"opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1318, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1121, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0953, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.081, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0688, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0585, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0497, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": 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0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.0445, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377235 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096857 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.083981 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.066767 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049087 } ], "others_margin": 0.004776 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4148440957069397, "model_output": 0.4148, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2934 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0168 } ], "others": 0.0128, "total": 0.4148, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.57208 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.09884 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058245 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05638 }, { "name": 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"touches_p90", "margin": 0.010063 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.00954 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.00934 } ], "others_margin": -0.027933 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.211, "total_shots": 0.6133, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4192, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 18.73, "total_pass": 8.5966, "accurate_pass": 7.3359, "duels_won": 1.1137, "total_long_balls": 0.3296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2643, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7059, "crosses_total": 0.922, "crosses_accurate": 0.3026, "touches": 13.2496, "possession_lost": 3.3072, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.1686, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 0.8631, "won_contest": 0.418, "ball_recovery": 1.1413, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2281, "fouls_drawn": 0.2717, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0855, "tackles_won": 0.2928, "tackles": 0.407, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2587, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0313, "offsides": 0.1937, "ball_carries": 6.6304, "total_progression": 32.2634, "progressive_carries": 1.1635, "shots_off_target": 0.4022 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.6172, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4192, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 18.73, "total_pass": 8.5966, "accurate_pass": 7.3359, "duels_won": 1.1137, "total_long_balls": 0.3296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2643, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7059, "crosses_total": 0.9166, 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expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "projection_minutes": 18.73, "minutes_scale": 1.4029, "appearance_probability": 0.354 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0219, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0553, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.354 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0766, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.063, "after": 0.0303 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0219, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0553, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4132, "fifa_rank": 3928.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0989, "total": 0.2666, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.43735 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.099268 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.078407 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064649 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.060742 } ], "others_margin": -0.315401 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.633338928222656, "model_output": 6.6333, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0738, "total": 6.6333, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048603 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023265 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011961 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011399 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011154 } ], "others_margin": -0.073813 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1201, "goals": 0.1639, "goal_rate": 0.1639, "shots_on_target": 0.3046, "total_shots": 0.84, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.2677, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.4288, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0584, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0843, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5354 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1201, "goals": 0.1636, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "shots_on_target": 0.304, "total_shots": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.2677, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.1836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0583, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5354 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1908, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 21.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1473, "goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.06, "projection_minutes": 17.17, "minutes_scale": 1.2266, "appearance_probability": 0.734 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1473, "goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1473, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.734 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1473, "after": 0.1524 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3149, "fifa_rank": 1428.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1376, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1376, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "scorer_weight": 0.1905, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.0949, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1376, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0176, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0176, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0142, "squad_weight_total": 1.4683, "weight_share": 0.0097, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.4462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4462, "runner_up": "Jack Grealish", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Beto": { "player_id": 987489, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 194, "market_value": 19300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1376, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0176, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { 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"accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023987, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1091, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3149, "combined_rank_score": 1115.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 803.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6194, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1428.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6333, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Beto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luciano Valente", "ranking": 3144 }, { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 3145 }, { "player_name": "Ao Tanaka", "ranking": 3146 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Vieira", "ranking": 3147 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 3148 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking": 3150 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 }, { "player_name": "Michal Sadílek", "ranking": 3152 }, { "player_name": "Tammy Abraham", "ranking": 3153 }, { "player_name": "Rafa Marín", "ranking": 3154 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.734, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0041, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (39 historical appearances) to 21.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.73); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 17.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1632, "shots_on_target": 0.3033, "total_shots": 0.8366, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.2666, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3545, "accurate_pass": 1.3932, "duels_won": 1.0618, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5973, "crosses_total": 0.1823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.4946, "possession_lost": 2.6092, "dispossessed": 0.4603, "duels_lost": 3.0739, "aerial_lost": 2.0183, "total_contest": 0.4185, "won_contest": 0.1108, "ball_recovery": 0.2395, "challenges_lost": 0.0685, "fouls": 0.427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0582, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1171, "clearances": 0.2052, "blocks": 0.1543, 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"minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 3.1353, "expectedGoals": 0.1988, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.8159, "accuratePass": 3.3859, "totalShots": 1.3325 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 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{ "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031446 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.02905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.028041 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.023165 } ], "others_margin": -0.051791 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8365781307220459, "model_output": 0.8366, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5591 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0477, "total": 0.8366, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559059 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.076515 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057326 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.026697 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.023675 } ], "others_margin": -0.047764 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.014394053258001804, "model_output": 0.0144, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0989, "total": 0.2666, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.43735 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.099268 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.078407 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064649 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.060742 } ], "others_margin": -0.315401 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.633338928222656, "model_output": 6.6333, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0738, "total": 6.6333, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048603 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023265 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011961 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011399 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011154 } ], "others_margin": -0.073813 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1201, "goals": 0.1639, "goal_rate": 0.1639, "shots_on_target": 0.3046, "total_shots": 0.84, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.2677, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.4288, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0584, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0843, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5354 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1201, "goals": 0.1636, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "shots_on_target": 0.304, "total_shots": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.2677, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.1836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0583, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5354 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1908, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 21.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1473, "goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.06, "projection_minutes": 17.17, "minutes_scale": 1.2266, "appearance_probability": 0.734 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1473, "goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1473, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.734 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1473, "after": 0.1524 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3149, "fifa_rank": 1428.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1376, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1376, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "scorer_weight": 0.1905, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.0949, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 1.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1044, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6567, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1376, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0176, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0176, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0142, "squad_weight_total": 1.4683, "weight_share": 0.0097, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.4462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4462, "runner_up": "Jack Grealish", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Hayden Hackney": { "player_id": 1008471, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 178, "market_value": 35000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 6.6946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091795 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033966 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019956 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012934 } ], "others_margin": -0.027591 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0337, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3461, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.1193, "total_shots": 0.3551, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 15.73, "total_pass": 11.6518, "accurate_pass": 10.3277, "duels_won": 0.1712, "total_long_balls": 0.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.912, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.2014, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8093, "total_progression": 21.4101, "progressive_carries": 0.621, "shots_off_target": 0.2358 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0337, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0236)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3461, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0484, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1165, "total_shots": 0.3502, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 15.73, "total_pass": 11.6518, "accurate_pass": 10.3277, "duels_won": 0.1712, "total_long_balls": 0.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6504, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6773, "crosses_total": 0.9042, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 15.1774, "possession_lost": 3.1243, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 1.4161, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1455, "tackles_won": 0.0034, "tackles": 0.1712, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.2001, "fouls_drawn": 0.0103, "blocks": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8093, "total_progression": 21.4101, "progressive_carries": 0.621, "shots_off_target": 0.2358 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0236, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1748, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0103 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.912, "after": 0.9042 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.73, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "assists": 0.0726, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0348, "after": 0.0257 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0503, "after": 0.0359 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2871, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0251, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0251, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "scorer_weight": 0.0321, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5192, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1748, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6946, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 17.4777, "accurate_pass": 15.4916, "duels_won": 0.2568, "total_long_balls": 0.7203, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3021, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4756, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.016, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.2568, "touches": 22.7661, "possession_lost": 4.6864, "dispossessed": 0.1712, "duels_lost": 2.1241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2182, "tackles_won": 0.0051, "tackles": 0.2568, "clearances": 0.3021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0435, "fouls": 0.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.0155, "blocks": 0.2182, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7139, "total_progression": 32.1151, "progressive_carries": 0.9315, "shots_off_target": 0.3537, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0251, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0347, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0726, "provider_weight": 0.0439, "squad_weight_total": 1.4683, "weight_share": 0.0299, "creation_factor": 1.2223, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.4462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4462, "runner_up": "Jack Grealish", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Tyrique George": { "player_id": 1403061, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 181, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 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{ "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 6.7045, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077917 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014387 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010063 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.00954 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.00934 } ], "others_margin": -0.027933 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.211, "total_shots": 0.6133, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4192, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 18.73, "total_pass": 8.5966, "accurate_pass": 7.3359, "duels_won": 1.1137, "total_long_balls": 0.3296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2643, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7059, "crosses_total": 0.922, "crosses_accurate": 0.3026, "touches": 13.2496, "possession_lost": 3.3072, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.1686, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 0.8631, "won_contest": 0.418, "ball_recovery": 1.1413, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2281, "fouls_drawn": 0.2717, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0855, "tackles_won": 0.2928, "tackles": 0.407, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2587, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0313, "offsides": 0.1937, "ball_carries": 6.6304, "total_progression": 32.2634, "progressive_carries": 1.1635, "shots_off_target": 0.4022 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.6172, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.4192, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 18.73, "total_pass": 8.5966, "accurate_pass": 7.3359, "duels_won": 1.1137, "total_long_balls": 0.3296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2643, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7059, "crosses_total": 0.9166, "crosses_accurate": 0.3026, "touches": 13.2496, "possession_lost": 3.3072, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.1686, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 0.8631, "won_contest": 0.418, "ball_recovery": 1.1413, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2251, "fouls_drawn": 0.2698, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0878, "tackles_won": 0.2906, "tackles": 0.407, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2587, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0313, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 6.6304, "total_progression": 32.2634, "progressive_carries": 1.1635, "shots_off_target": 0.4022 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2081, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.922, "after": 0.9166 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 26.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "projection_minutes": 18.73, "minutes_scale": 1.4029, "appearance_probability": 0.354 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.2602, xG scale 1.4093, xA scale 1.3604, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0219, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0553, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.776, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2602, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0444, "team_expected_assists": 1.4208, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4093, "xa_scale": 1.3604, "opponent_lambda": 1.996, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.354 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0766, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.063, "after": 0.0303 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0219, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0553, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4132, "fifa_rank": 3928.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, "total_contest": 1.2108, "won_contest": 0.5864, "ball_recovery": 1.6011, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.3785, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1232, "tackles_won": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.571, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3629, "big_chances_missed": 0.0201, "xgot": 0.0219, "offsides": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 9.3016, "total_progression": 45.2616, "progressive_carries": 1.6322, "shots_off_target": 0.5642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.261, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0362, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0553, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0362, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "scorer_weight": 0.0403, "squad_weight_total": 2.0083, "weight_share": 0.0201, "finishing_factor": 1.0553, "appearance_weight": 0.354, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.6841, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6841, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2945, "total_shots": 0.8659, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5881, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.06, "accurate_pass": 10.2914, "duels_won": 1.5624, "total_long_balls": 0.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3708, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6018, "crosses_total": 1.2859, "crosses_accurate": 0.4245, "touches": 18.5876, "possession_lost": 4.6396, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 1.6394, "aerial_lost": 0.0726, 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01432 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009734 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.008872 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.006556 } ], "others_margin": 0.025792 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.8473, "goal_rate": 0.0193, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0851, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.05, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.1591, "big_chances_created": 0.0887, "xgot": 0.0364, "ball_carries": 17.4053, "total_progression": 56.4539, "progressive_carries": 0.6274, "key_pass": 0.1699, "shots_off_target": 0.3795, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.675, "opponent_faced": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 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19.3498, "passValueNormalized": 0.1467, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 21.1888 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0275440216064453, "model_output": 3.0275, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 3.0275, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.013731 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012863 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.022524 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.018419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.015783 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.015119 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.01065 } ], "others_margin": -0.039152 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.064715385437012, "model_output": 7.0647, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0341, "goals_prevented": -0.0298, "rating": 7.0647, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 35.9091, "accurate_pass": 24.3302, "total_long_balls": 17.2992, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9406, "touches": 47.1705, "clearances": 0.3499, "ball_recovery": 9.7481, "high_claims": 1.9102, "punches": 0.166, "aerial_won": 0.4684, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9528, "saves_inside_box": 2.4664, "possession_lost": 11.7585, "duels_won": 0.9035, "duels_lost": 0.0019, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4608, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7894, "shots_faced": 17.0, "expected_saves": 4.16, "high_pressure_saves": 1.43, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0341, "goals_prevented": -0.0298, "rating": 7.0647, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 35.9091, "accurate_pass": 24.3302, "total_long_balls": 17.2992, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9406, "touches": 47.1705, "clearances": 0.3499, "ball_recovery": 9.7481, "high_claims": 1.9102, "punches": 0.166, "aerial_won": 0.4684, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9528, "saves_inside_box": 2.4664, "possession_lost": 11.7585, "duels_won": 0.9035, "duels_lost": 0.0019, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4608, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7894, "shots_faced": 16.9, "expected_saves": 4.14, "high_pressure_saves": 1.42, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.996, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3529, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8794, "team_expected_assists": 1.2975, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4753, "xa_scale": 1.4753, "opponent_lambda": 1.776, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 17.0, "after": 16.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.16, "after": 4.14 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.43, "after": 1.42 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0341, "goals_prevented": -0.0298, "rating": 7.0647, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 35.9091, "accurate_pass": 24.3302, "total_long_balls": 17.2992, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9406, "touches": 47.1705, "clearances": 0.3499, "ball_recovery": 9.7481, "high_claims": 1.9102, "punches": 0.166, "aerial_won": 0.4684, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9528, "saves_inside_box": 2.4664, "possession_lost": 11.7585, "duels_won": 0.9035, "duels_lost": 0.0019, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4608, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3595, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7894, "shots_faced": 16.9, "expected_saves": 4.14, "high_pressure_saves": 1.42, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0687, "total": 0.3413, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102687 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045375 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.020214 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017983 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009397 } ], "others_margin": -0.068701 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.853606224060059, "model_output": 6.8536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 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0.6213, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0016, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.3511, "total_progression": 57.7384, "progressive_carries": 0.685, "key_pass": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.3545 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1317, "tackles": 1.2064, "tackles_won": 0.6718, "clearances": 5.0948, "aerial_won": 2.4899, "total_shots": 0.3603, "rating": 6.8536, "minutes": 88.1, "total_pass": 62.7616, "accurate_pass": 56.4281, "duels_won": 4.1983, "total_long_balls": 3.4772, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0418, "total_own_half_passes": 40.5889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.7323, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6958, "crosses_total": 0.0839, 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handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1317, "tackles": 1.2064, "tackles_won": 0.6718, "clearances": 5.0948, "aerial_won": 2.4899, "total_shots": 0.3603, "rating": 6.8536, "minutes": 88.1, "total_pass": 62.7616, "accurate_pass": 56.4281, "duels_won": 4.1983, "total_long_balls": 3.4772, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0418, "total_own_half_passes": 40.5889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.7323, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6958, "crosses_total": 0.0839, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.8783, "possession_lost": 7.1622, "dispossessed": 0.1018, "duels_lost": 1.7179, "aerial_lost": 0.8341, "total_contest": 0.1196, "won_contest": 0.1196, "ball_recovery": 3.4681, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.6142, "fouls_drawn": 0.315, "blocks": 0.6213, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0016, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.3511, "total_progression": 57.7384, "progressive_carries": 0.685, "key_pass": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.3545, "opponent_faced": "Jack Grealish", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1317, "tackles": 1.2064, "tackles_won": 0.6718, "clearances": 5.0948, "aerial_won": 2.4899, "total_shots": 0.3603, "rating": 6.8536, "minutes": 88.1, "total_pass": 62.7616, "accurate_pass": 56.4281, "duels_won": 4.1983, "total_long_balls": 3.4772, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0418, "total_own_half_passes": 40.5889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.7323, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6958, "crosses_total": 0.0839, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.8783, "possession_lost": 7.1622, "dispossessed": 0.1018, "duels_lost": 1.7179, "aerial_lost": 0.8341, "total_contest": 0.1196, "won_contest": 0.1196, "ball_recovery": 3.4681, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.6142, "fouls_drawn": 0.315, "blocks": 0.6213, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "expected_assists": 0.0292, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.3511, "total_progression": 57.7384, "progressive_carries": 0.685, "key_pass": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.3545, "opponent_faced": "Jack Grealish", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.969, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.996, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3529, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8794, "team_expected_assists": 1.2975, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4753, "xa_scale": 1.4753, "opponent_lambda": 1.776, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0198, "after": 0.0292 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.237, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.237, "runner_up": "Pep Chavarría", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2172 } ] } } ] }, "Pedro Neto": { "player_id": 879349, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 172, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1675, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1896, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8264, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.2037, "dispossessed": 0.6448, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.3076, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.121, "goals": 0.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1401, "shots_on_target": 0.5671, "total_shots": 1.5149, "expected_assists": 0.1285, "key_pass": 1.4095, "rating": 6.8264, "minutes": 82.11, "total_pass": 27.7197, "accurate_pass": 23.8175, "duels_won": 3.6519, "total_long_balls": 1.274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6015, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0938, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8571, "crosses_total": 4.5318, "crosses_accurate": 1.0146, "touches": 46.2137, "possession_lost": 12.2037, "dispossessed": 0.6448, "duels_lost": 5.715, "aerial_lost": 0.9993, "total_contest": 3.4074, "won_contest": 1.5241, "ball_recovery": 2.6644, "challenges_lost": 1.2911, "fouls": 0.8966, "fouls_drawn": 0.6026, "assists": 0.3089, "assist_rate": 0.3089, "interceptions": 0.5043, 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Harrison Armstrong, Jarrad Branthwaite", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.938, "skill_edge": 0.0178, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.8478, "defender_skill": 0.8082, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "market_value": 31000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.761 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "market_value": 46000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8555 } ], "xg_override": 0.1135 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5213, "after": 1.427 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9478, "after": 0.889 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5733, "after": 0.5378 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2736, "after": 0.2566 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1439, "after": 0.135 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.121, "after": 0.1135 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1195, "after": 0.1121 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1135, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.427, "expected_assists": 0.1285, "key_pass": 1.4095, "rating": 6.8264, "minutes": 82.11, "total_pass": 27.7197, "accurate_pass": 23.8175, "duels_won": 3.6519, "total_long_balls": 1.274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6015, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0938, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8571, "crosses_total": 4.5253, "crosses_accurate": 1.0146, "touches": 46.2137, "possession_lost": 12.2037, "dispossessed": 0.6448, "duels_lost": 5.715, "aerial_lost": 0.9993, 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"assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1675, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.427, "expected_assists": 0.1896, "key_pass": 1.4095, "rating": 6.8264, "minutes": 82.11, "total_pass": 27.7197, "accurate_pass": 23.8175, "duels_won": 3.6519, "total_long_balls": 1.274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6015, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0938, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8571, "crosses_total": 4.5253, "crosses_accurate": 1.0146, "touches": 46.2137, "possession_lost": 12.2037, "dispossessed": 0.6448, "duels_lost": 5.715, "aerial_lost": 0.9993, "total_contest": 3.4074, "won_contest": 1.5241, "ball_recovery": 2.6644, "challenges_lost": 1.2911, "fouls": 0.8971, "fouls_drawn": 0.6044, "assist_rate": 0.3076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5065, "tackles_won": 0.6599, "tackles": 1.196, "clearances": 0.6016, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2246, "big_chances_missed": 0.2566, "xgot": 0.1654, "offsides": 0.0744, "ball_carries": 15.9328, "total_progression": 89.0566, "progressive_carries": 3.5214, "shots_off_target": 0.889, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.938, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Harrison Armstrong, Jarrad Branthwaite", "opponent_faced": "Harrison Armstrong, Jarrad Branthwaite", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1315, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.996, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3529, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8794, "team_expected_assists": 1.2975, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4753, "xa_scale": 1.4753, "opponent_lambda": 1.776, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1135, "after": 0.1675 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1285, "after": 0.1896 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1675, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.427, "expected_assists": 0.1896, "key_pass": 1.4095, "rating": 6.8264, "minutes": 82.11, "total_pass": 27.7197, "accurate_pass": 23.8175, "duels_won": 3.6519, "total_long_balls": 1.274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6015, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0938, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8571, "crosses_total": 4.5253, "crosses_accurate": 1.0146, "touches": 46.2137, "possession_lost": 12.2037, "dispossessed": 0.6448, "duels_lost": 5.715, "aerial_lost": 0.9993, "total_contest": 3.4074, "won_contest": 1.5241, "ball_recovery": 2.6644, "challenges_lost": 1.2911, "fouls": 0.8971, "fouls_drawn": 0.6044, "assist_rate": 0.3076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5065, "tackles_won": 0.6599, "tackles": 1.196, "clearances": 0.6016, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2246, "big_chances_missed": 0.2566, 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"fifa_rank": 508.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1675, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.427, "expected_assists": 0.1896, "key_pass": 1.4095, "rating": 6.8264, "minutes": 82.11, "total_pass": 27.7197, "accurate_pass": 23.8175, "duels_won": 3.6519, "total_long_balls": 1.274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6015, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0938, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8571, "crosses_total": 4.5253, "crosses_accurate": 1.0146, "touches": 46.2137, "possession_lost": 12.2037, "dispossessed": 0.6448, "duels_lost": 5.715, "aerial_lost": 0.9993, "total_contest": 3.4074, "won_contest": 1.5241, "ball_recovery": 2.6644, "challenges_lost": 1.2911, "fouls": 0.8971, "fouls_drawn": 0.6044, 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integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6263, "expected_assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0454, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0379, "goal_rate": 0.044, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.125, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.0136, "minutes": 84.44, "total_pass": 65.6886, "accurate_pass": 60.2764, "duels_won": 5.2032, "total_long_balls": 3.4768, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3582, "total_own_half_passes": 34.7216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.373, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.9669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9032, "crosses_total": 0.1106, "crosses_accurate": 0.0083, "touches": 78.3467, "possession_lost": 7.2249, "dispossessed": 0.4377, "duels_lost": 4.016, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8946, "interceptions": 1.3799, "tackles_won": 1.1316, "tackles": 2.2228, "clearances": 1.1078, "total_contest": 0.8956, "won_contest": 0.4593, "challenges_lost": 0.6633, "fouls": 1.7337, "fouls_drawn": 2.1493, "blocks": 0.2553, "big_chances_created": 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], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.0478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.441692 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185493 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121316 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.095765 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033324 } ], "others_margin": -0.111747 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07013192027807236, "model_output": 0.0701, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2951 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0434 } ], "others": -0.0469, "total": 0.735, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.29506 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129665 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048644 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.043791 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043431 } ], "others_margin": -0.046829 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.10568904876709, "model_output": 7.1057, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1085 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0723 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 } ], "others": -0.016, "total": 7.1057, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.108541 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.072299 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.030366 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1732, "expected_assists": 0.1023, "assists": 0.0965, "assist_rate": 0.0965, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0699, "shots_on_target": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0.7331, "rating": 7.1057, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 52.1645, "accurate_pass": 41.8495, "duels_won": 2.1327, "total_long_balls": 6.3752, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9887, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.5846, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1187, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.2649, "crosses_total": 2.8656, "crosses_accurate": 0.6126, "touches": 62.4969, "possession_lost": 13.59, "dispossessed": 0.2879, "duels_lost": 2.0511, "aerial_won": 0.7888, "aerial_lost": 0.8232, "interceptions": 0.5236, "tackles_won": 0.5838, "tackles": 1.0425, "clearances": 1.7592, "total_contest": 0.4106, "won_contest": 0.1785, "challenges_lost": 0.4091, "fouls": 0.2987, "fouls_drawn": 0.1482, "blocks": 0.4736, "big_chances_created": 0.265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0935, "ball_carries": 11.3427, "total_progression": 20.9875, "progressive_carries": 0.6404, "shots_off_target": 0.5314 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1732, "expected_assists": 0.1023, "assists": 0.0965, "assist_rate": 0.0965, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0699, "shots_on_target": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0.7331, "rating": 7.1057, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 52.1645, "accurate_pass": 41.8495, "duels_won": 2.1327, "total_long_balls": 6.3752, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0128, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3847, "goals": 0.424, "goal_rate": 0.424, "shots_on_target": 0.8183, "total_shots": 2.4268, "expected_assists": 0.0615, "key_pass": 0.9336, "rating": 7.0794, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 19.8183, "accurate_pass": 13.4844, "duels_won": 7.3278, "total_long_balls": 0.6712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2425, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.641, "crosses_total": 0.6328, "crosses_accurate": 0.1107, "touches": 37.0977, "possession_lost": 12.9337, "dispossessed": 1.2581, "duels_lost": 6.7672, "aerial_lost": 3.2341, "total_contest": 2.7316, "won_contest": 1.6063, "ball_recovery": 2.0345, "challenges_lost": 0.19, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 2.3888, "assists": 0.3302, "assist_rate": 0.3302, "interceptions": 0.1493, "tackles_won": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7343 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1861 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0993 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0818 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0815 } ], "others": 0.2322, "total": 2.4107, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.734262 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.186137 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.099298 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.081818 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.081542 } ], "others_margin": 0.232079 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.152707576751709, "model_output": 7.1527, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, 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0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6965 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2046 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0665 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0623 } ], "others": 0.173, "total": 2.2994, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.696489 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.204584 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100981 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.066523 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.062341 } ], "others_margin": 0.172932 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.058193206787109, "model_output": 7.0582, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0375, "tackles": 1.4801, "tackles_won": 0.9155, "clearances": 2.8743, "aerial_won": 0.8904, "total_shots": 0.3892, "rating": 6.7024, "minutes": 89.07, "total_pass": 42.4003, "accurate_pass": 36.5272, "duels_won": 3.454, "total_long_balls": 5.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 21.043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.667, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8601, "crosses_total": 3.5282, "crosses_accurate": 0.5045, "touches": 68.4528, "possession_lost": 13.5571, "dispossessed": 0.1812, "duels_lost": 4.2091, "aerial_lost": 1.7428, "total_contest": 1.3768, "won_contest": 0.4711, "ball_recovery": 4.0947, "challenges_lost": 0.4726, "fouls": 0.9392, "fouls_drawn": 0.5715, "blocks": 0.1651, "goals": 0.0023, 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integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0349, "tackles": 1.4801, "tackles_won": 0.9181, "clearances": 2.8743, "aerial_won": 0.8904, "total_shots": 0.3891, "rating": 6.7024, "minutes": 89.07, "total_pass": 42.4003, "accurate_pass": 36.5272, "duels_won": 3.454, "total_long_balls": 5.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 21.043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.667, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8601, "crosses_total": 3.5195, "crosses_accurate": 0.5045, "touches": 68.4528, "possession_lost": 13.5571, "dispossessed": 0.1812, "duels_lost": 4.2091, "aerial_lost": 1.7428, "total_contest": 1.3768, "won_contest": 0.4711, "ball_recovery": 4.0947, "challenges_lost": 0.4726, "fouls": 0.9369, "fouls_drawn": 0.5701, "blocks": 0.1651, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1589, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.1193, "shots_on_target": 0.0557, 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"accurate_long_balls": 2.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 21.043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.667, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8601, "crosses_total": 3.5195, "crosses_accurate": 0.5045, "touches": 68.4528, "possession_lost": 13.5571, "dispossessed": 0.1812, "duels_lost": 4.2091, "aerial_lost": 1.7428, "total_contest": 1.3768, "won_contest": 0.4711, "ball_recovery": 4.0947, "challenges_lost": 0.4726, "fouls": 0.9369, "fouls_drawn": 0.5701, "blocks": 0.1651, "goal_rate": 0.0023, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1589, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "expected_assists": 0.176, "shots_on_target": 0.0557, "big_chances_created": 0.2469, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 17.4327, "total_progression": 81.918, "progressive_carries": 2.1489, "key_pass": 1.0374, "shots_off_target": 0.3334, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.689609 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.071276 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.061482 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.035646 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.030237 } ], "others_margin": -0.034181 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.90168696641922, "model_output": 0.9017, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.9863 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3084 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0927 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.035 } ], "others": -0.1099, "total": 0.9017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.864244 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.239828 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.084938 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.067931 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.035199 } ], "others_margin": -0.115103 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3111855685710907, "model_output": 0.3112, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7559 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1741 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0456 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.03 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.3112, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.795866 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.328762 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.107596 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.091061 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.085429 } ], "others_margin": -0.078785 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7570345401763916, "model_output": 0.757, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3779 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2738 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": 0.0753, "total": 0.757, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.377921 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.27384 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.056394 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.024692 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022041 } ], "others_margin": 0.075326 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.953033447265625, "model_output": 6.953, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": 0.0703, "total": 6.953, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.038278 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.037487 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.033138 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028779 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026525 } ], "others_margin": 0.070401 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2562, "tackles": 0.5926, "tackles_won": 0.4442, "clearances": 0.9143, "aerial_won": 0.3155, "total_shots": 0.7676, "rating": 6.953, "minutes": 24.63, "total_pass": 19.2182, "accurate_pass": 16.4418, "duels_won": 1.4357, "total_long_balls": 1.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7358, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6748, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7671, "crosses_total": 1.7599, "crosses_accurate": 0.2004, "touches": 26.2076, "possession_lost": 5.1669, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.6547, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.5032, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 1.9054, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.176, "fouls_drawn": 0.5238, "blocks": 0.1977, "goals": 0.0, 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1.7531 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 19.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2039, "tackles": 0.4694, "tackles_won": 0.3492, "clearances": 0.7242, "aerial_won": 0.2499, "total_shots": 0.608, "rating": 6.953, "minutes": 19.51, "total_pass": 15.2232, "accurate_pass": 13.0239, "duels_won": 1.1373, "total_long_balls": 1.055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2873, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7367, "crosses_total": 1.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.1587, "touches": 20.7597, "possession_lost": 4.0928, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.5186, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.3986, "won_contest": 0.2231, "ball_recovery": 1.5093, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.1397, "fouls_drawn": 0.4118, "blocks": 0.1566, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 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"press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4591 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0165, "total": 0.4905, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.771021 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.070846 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.045042 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.033171 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.033125 } ], "others_margin": 0.034192 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9276305437088013, "model_output": 0.9276, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8201 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0981 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0508, "total": 0.3661, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.905013 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.193558 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.080157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.055896 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.039633 } ], "others_margin": -0.130022 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16034598648548126, "model_output": 0.1603, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.085 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0506, "total": 0.1603, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.188546 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084963 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015646 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.01499 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010515 } ], "others_margin": -0.050504 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724058151245117, "model_output": 6.7241, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 6.7241, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018078 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015497 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 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6.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4468, "crosses_total": 0.5606, "crosses_accurate": 0.4959, "touches": 18.92, "possession_lost": 1.6067, "dispossessed": 0.0439, "duels_lost": 1.6968, "aerial_lost": 0.2036, "total_contest": 0.4948, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6782, "challenges_lost": 0.2602, "fouls": 0.6861, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.1886, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4885, "total_progression": 9.2654, "progressive_carries": 0.3605, "key_pass": 0.2585, "shots_off_target": 0.1627 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0119, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2269, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6943, "after": 0.6861 }, { "stat": "totalCross", 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0.5991, "tackles_won": 0.3639, "clearances": 0.6943, "aerial_won": 0.274, "total_shots": 0.12, "rating": 6.7241, "minutes": 15.06, "total_pass": 9.6936, "accurate_pass": 9.1672, "duels_won": 0.8578, "total_long_balls": 0.2108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0851, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6159, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.413, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7543, "crosses_total": 0.4134, "crosses_accurate": 0.3657, "touches": 13.953, "possession_lost": 1.1849, "dispossessed": 0.0439, "duels_lost": 1.2513, "aerial_lost": 0.2036, "total_contest": 0.3649, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5002, "challenges_lost": 0.2602, "fouls": 0.506, "fouls_drawn": 0.0024, "blocks": 0.1391, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0167, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.101, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5727, "total_progression": 6.833, "progressive_carries": 0.2659, "key_pass": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.12, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.247, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.06, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.247, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"others": -0.01, "total": 0.1165, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488646 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.153087 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.143698 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.089227 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.071282 } ], "others_margin": -0.082216 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3574109971523285, "model_output": 0.3574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3044 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1308 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0483 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": -0.1506, "total": 0.3574, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.304418 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130825 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.032762 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.028829 } ], "others_margin": -0.150655 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.758239269256592, "model_output": 6.7582, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1037 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 6.7582, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.103714 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.032351 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027783 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011907 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007596 } ], "others_margin": -0.015174 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0554, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3271, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "assists": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.123, "total_shots": 0.3772, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4463, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0105, "crosses_total": 1.1077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.5113, "possession_lost": 5.3129, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.4595, "aerial_won": 0.7589, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.4656, "tackles_won": 1.2308, "tackles": 1.2308, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4102, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6452, "fouls_drawn": 1.518, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0401, "total_progression": 26.5753, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2542 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0554, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0027)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3271, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0548, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.1227, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4463, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0105, "crosses_total": 1.1047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.5113, "possession_lost": 5.3129, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.4595, "aerial_won": 0.7589, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.4668, "tackles_won": 1.2274, "tackles": 1.2308, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4102, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6486, "fouls_drawn": 1.5139, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0401, "total_progression": 26.5753, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2542 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0027, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.189, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 15.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.48, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 0.9101, "appearance_probability": 0.721 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.996, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3529, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8794, "team_expected_assists": 1.2975, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4753, "xa_scale": 1.4753, "opponent_lambda": 1.776, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.721 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2683, "fifa_rank": 886.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4456 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.149 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0369 } ], "others": -0.0763, "total": 0.6774, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.445577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.148958 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.052451 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.041147 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.036903 } ], "others_margin": -0.076274 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.025639517232775688, "model_output": 0.0256, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0029, "total": 0.0256, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444466 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.138877 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.10255 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.066814 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.060602 } ], "others_margin": -0.104801 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.30715781450271606, "model_output": 0.3072, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2701 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 0.3072, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.512671 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060406 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050548 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.035575 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033588 } ], "others_margin": -0.092143 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.634556293487549, "model_output": 6.6346, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0447, "total": 6.6346, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059262 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014864 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011361 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010852 } ], "others_margin": -0.044795 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0178, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "shots_on_target": 0.2709, "total_shots": 0.6895, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.3126, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 14.43, "total_pass": 4.9288, "accurate_pass": 3.9223, "duels_won": 1.0195, "total_long_balls": 0.324, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2295, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0103, "crosses_total": 0.7412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0576, "touches": 8.8388, "possession_lost": 3.2108, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 1.3374, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.1634, "won_contest": 0.4643, "ball_recovery": 0.5313, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.3161, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0945, "tackles_won": 0.0203, "tackles": 0.2391, "clearances": 0.041, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0618, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0524, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 2.8769, "total_progression": 17.3396, "progressive_carries": 0.8233, "shots_off_target": 0.4185 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0178, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.4 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.06, "projection_minutes": 14.43, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.639 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0741, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.996, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3529, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8794, "team_expected_assists": 1.2975, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4753, "xa_scale": 1.4753, "opponent_lambda": 1.776, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0741, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0741, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.073, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "scorer_weight": 0.0848, "squad_weight_total": 2.225, "weight_share": 0.0381, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 5, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0642, quality 0.805)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.069, "goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0643, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.2788, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.97, "total_pass": 8.2835, "accurate_pass": 6.7303, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0909, "crosses_total": 1.1505, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9871, "possession_lost": 2.7036, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.489, 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"dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.489, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4933, "ball_carries": 2.8762, "total_progression": 16.0896, "progressive_carries": 1.1505, "shots_off_target": 0.4011 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0031, "history_matches": 2, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1886, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 17.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0691, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.2791, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 8.2933, "accurate_pass": 6.7382, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0969, "crosses_total": 1.1483, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 2.7068, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4896, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4933, "ball_carries": 2.8796, "total_progression": 16.1086, "progressive_carries": 1.1519, "shots_off_target": 0.4016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.99, "projection_minutes": 16.97, "minutes_scale": 1.0012, "appearance_probability": 0.749 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0691, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.2791, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 8.2933, "accurate_pass": 6.7382, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0969, "crosses_total": 1.1483, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 2.7068, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4896, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4933, "ball_carries": 2.8796, "total_progression": 16.1086, "progressive_carries": 1.1519, "shots_off_target": 0.4016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0691, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.2791, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 8.2933, "accurate_pass": 6.7382, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0969, "crosses_total": 1.1483, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 2.7068, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4896, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4933, "ball_carries": 2.8796, "total_progression": 16.1086, "progressive_carries": 1.1519, "shots_off_target": 0.4016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.2791, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 8.2933, "accurate_pass": 6.7382, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0969, "crosses_total": 1.1483, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 2.7068, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4896, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4933, "ball_carries": 2.8796, "total_progression": 16.1086, "progressive_carries": 1.1519, "shots_off_target": 0.4016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9589, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.996, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3529, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8794, "team_expected_assists": 1.2975, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4753, "xa_scale": 1.4753, "opponent_lambda": 1.776, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.749 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0691, "after": 0.0764 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.2791, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 8.2933, "accurate_pass": 6.7382, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0969, "crosses_total": 1.1483, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 2.7068, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4896, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4933, "ball_carries": 2.8796, "total_progression": 16.1086, "progressive_carries": 1.1519, "shots_off_target": 0.4016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.749, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9589, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2957, "fifa_rank": 1804.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.2791, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 8.2933, "accurate_pass": 6.7382, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0969, "crosses_total": 1.1483, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 2.7068, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4896, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4933, 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"already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6445, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4881 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4881, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4881, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4432 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2571, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.2791, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.99, "total_pass": 8.2933, "accurate_pass": 6.7382, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0969, "crosses_total": 1.1483, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 2.7068, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, 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"contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.0159, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.443593 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.227254 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.163758 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.12702 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.126814 } ], "others_margin": -0.306594 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2620033919811249, "model_output": 0.262, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2793 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.019 } ], "others": -0.0357, "total": 0.262, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.5358 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.07966 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071054 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.06783 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061766 } ], "others_margin": -0.127826 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.600774765014648, "model_output": 6.6008, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0642, quality 0.805)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.069, "goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0643, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.2788, "rating": 6.6008, "minutes": 16.97, "total_pass": 8.2835, "accurate_pass": 6.7303, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0909, "crosses_total": 1.1505, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9871, "possession_lost": 2.7036, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.489, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1259 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 0.1165, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488646 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.153087 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.143698 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.089227 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.071282 } ], "others_margin": -0.082216 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3574109971523285, "model_output": 0.3574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3044 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1308 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0483 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": -0.1506, "total": 0.3574, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.304418 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130825 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.032762 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.028829 } ], "others_margin": -0.150655 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.758239269256592, "model_output": 6.7582, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1037 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 6.7582, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.103714 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.032351 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027783 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011907 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007596 } ], "others_margin": -0.015174 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0554, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3271, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "assists": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.123, "total_shots": 0.3772, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4463, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0105, "crosses_total": 1.1077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.5113, "possession_lost": 5.3129, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.4595, "aerial_won": 0.7589, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.4656, "tackles_won": 1.2308, "tackles": 1.2308, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4102, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6452, "fouls_drawn": 1.518, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0401, "total_progression": 26.5753, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2542 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0554, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0027)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3271, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0548, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.1227, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4463, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0105, "crosses_total": 1.1047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.5113, "possession_lost": 5.3129, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.4595, "aerial_won": 0.7589, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.4668, "tackles_won": 1.2274, "tackles": 1.2308, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4102, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6486, "fouls_drawn": 1.5139, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0401, "total_progression": 26.5753, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2542 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0027, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.189, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 15.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.48, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 0.9101, "appearance_probability": 0.721 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.022, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goal_rate": 0.0341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1117, "total_shots": 0.347, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 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"predicted": 6.634556293487549, "model_output": 6.6346, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0447, "total": 6.6346, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059262 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014864 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011361 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0178, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "shots_on_target": 0.2709, "total_shots": 0.6895, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.3126, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 14.43, "total_pass": 4.9288, "accurate_pass": 3.9223, "duels_won": 1.0195, "total_long_balls": 0.324, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2295, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0103, "crosses_total": 0.7412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0576, "touches": 8.8388, "possession_lost": 3.2108, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 1.3374, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.1634, "won_contest": 0.4643, "ball_recovery": 0.5313, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1171, "fouls_drawn": 0.3161, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0945, "tackles_won": 0.0203, "tackles": 0.2391, "clearances": 0.041, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0618, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0524, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 2.8769, "total_progression": 17.3396, "progressive_carries": 0.8233, "shots_off_target": 0.4185 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0178, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.4 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.06, "projection_minutes": 14.43, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.639 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0786, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.00 (squad xG sum 1.3529, xG scale 1.4753, xA scale 1.4753, team xA 1.30 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0741, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.996, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3529, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8794, "team_expected_assists": 1.2975, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4753, "xa_scale": 1.4753, "opponent_lambda": 1.776, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0741, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0741, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.073, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "scorer_weight": 0.0848, "squad_weight_total": 2.225, "weight_share": 0.0381, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.6445, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6445, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4881 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4881, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4881, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4432 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.0947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4063, "total_shots": 1.0343, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.4689, "rating": 6.6346, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.3932, "accurate_pass": 5.8834, "duels_won": 1.5293, "total_long_balls": 0.486, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5154, "crosses_total": 1.1118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0864, "touches": 13.2582, "possession_lost": 4.8162, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.0061, "aerial_lost": 0.1153, "total_contest": 1.7451, "won_contest": 0.6965, "ball_recovery": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.1944, "fouls": 0.1757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4741, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1417, "tackles_won": 0.0304, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.0615, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0741, "offsides": 0.2721, "ball_carries": 4.3154, "total_progression": 26.0094, "progressive_carries": 1.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.6278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.119, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.073, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0359, "finishing_factor": 1.0946, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0296, "squad_weight_total": 1.3374, "weight_share": 0.0221, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.237, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.237, "runner_up": "Pep Chavarría", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2172 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.0, "expected_assists": 1.3, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 507, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "xg_contribution": 0.1628, "xg_multiplier": 0.8608, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.675 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Maxence Lacroix in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €64M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Josh Acheampong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.785, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.3889, "xg_multiplier": 0.9761, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Josh Acheampong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is evenly matched against Maxence Lacroix and Josh Acheampong in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.389 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jack Grealish", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Josh Acheampong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.785, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0755, "xg_multiplier": 0.8102, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Josh Acheampong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Grealish (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Maxence Lacroix and Josh Acheampong in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Brennan Johnson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Josh Acheampong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.785, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1622, "xg_multiplier": 0.8808, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Josh Acheampong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brennan Johnson (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Maxence Lacroix and Josh Acheampong in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Harrison Armstrong", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.767, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "xg_contribution": 0.1135, "xg_multiplier": 0.938, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Harrison Armstrong and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €38M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "João Pedro", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 92000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Harrison Armstrong", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.767, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.3965, "xg_multiplier": 1.0306, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Pedro (SS) is evenly matched against Harrison Armstrong and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€92M vs €38M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.396 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jordan Henderson", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "xg_contribution": 0.0443, "xg_multiplier": 0.9315, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Henderson (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Ainsley Maitland-Niles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 101000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.894, "defenders": [ "James Tarkowski" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.583, "xg_contribution": 0.2874, "xg_multiplier": 1.2695, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Tarkowski", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.417 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (RWB) has a clear attacking advantage against James Tarkowski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€101M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.27 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.287 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Harrison Armstrong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.483, "xg_contribution": 0.0379, "xg_multiplier": 1.0488, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CM) is evenly matched against Harrison Armstrong in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Harrison Armstrong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "xg_contribution": 0.2555, "xg_multiplier": 1.1026, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.48 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (CM) is slightly favored against Harrison Armstrong in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.255 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.786, "away_midfield_power": 0.806, "home_creative_power": 0.832, "away_creative_power": 0.798, "home_defensive_power": 0.616, "away_defensive_power": 0.566, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.494, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Harrison Armstrong", "James Garner" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Jordan Henderson", "Morgan Rogers", "Cole Palmer" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.3, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "James Garner vs Morgan Rogers", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.012, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.01 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.776, "away_lambda": 1.996, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Josh Acheampong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jack Grealish": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Josh Acheampong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Brennan Johnson": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Josh Acheampong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harrison Armstrong": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "João Pedro", "Moisés Caicedo", "Morgan Rogers", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ainsley Maitland-Niles": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Tarkowski": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Michael Keane": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Thierno Barry", "Jack Grealish", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Josh Acheampong": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Jack Grealish", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Harrison Armstrong", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "João Pedro": { "opponents": [ "Harrison Armstrong", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jordan Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "James Tarkowski", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Harrison Armstrong", "James Garner" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emiliano Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Levi Colwill": { "opponents": [ "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Pep Chavarría": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — James Garner vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.14. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8986, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9593, "home_midfield_factor": 1.012, "away_midfield_factor": 1.01, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6696, "away_avg_quality": 0.7877, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1181, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.8129, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7926, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7738, "elite_count_gap": -4, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2656, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1461, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.085, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7894, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0074 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.012, "result": 1.0195 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.0705 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.231 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0464, "result": 1.2882 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9777, "result": 1.2595 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8986, "result": 1.1317 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3117 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3117, "result": 1.3117, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2656, "factor": 0.915, "pre": 1.3117, "result": 1.2003 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2003 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1829, "result": 1.3829 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.7894 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.7894, "result": 1.789, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.789, "result": 1.7763, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.776 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.776 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.776, "result": 1.776, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.776 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1351, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2138 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.01, "result": 1.226 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.1647 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1647 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0209, "result": 1.189 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9575, "result": 1.1385 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9593, "result": 1.0921 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.2721 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2721, "result": 1.2721, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2656, "factor": 1.1461, "pre": 1.2721, "result": 1.4579 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4579 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1639, "result": 1.6219 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.9825 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.9825, "result": 1.982, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.982, "result": 1.9961, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.996 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.996 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.996, "result": 1.996, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.996 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1829, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1639, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Everton", "away_squad": "Chelsea", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 3.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.776, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.996, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7894, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.9825, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.776, "final_away_lambda": 1.996 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0464, "attack_index": 0.968, "defense_concede_index": 1.156, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.71, "team_ppg": 1.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0209, "attack_index": 1.232, "defense_concede_index": 0.855, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.82, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.26, "team_ppg": 1.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Everton vs Chelsea. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.789, Away 1.982). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.776, Away 1.996 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Everton", "away_squad": "Chelsea", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 3.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.776, "away_lambda": 1.996, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.789, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.982 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-16T13:30:58Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }