{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Elche", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1126, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1126, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0516, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Villarreal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2148, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1126 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1102 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1021 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.099 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0716 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0586, "0-1": 0.0516, "0-2": 0.0234, "0-3": 0.007, "0-4": 0.0016, "1-0": 0.1126, "1-1": 0.1021, "1-2": 0.0456, "1-3": 0.0137, "1-4": 0.0031, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.1102, "2-1": 0.099, "2-2": 0.0444, "2-3": 0.0133, "2-4": 0.003, "2-5": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0716, "3-1": 0.0643, "3-2": 0.0289, "3-3": 0.0086, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0348, "4-1": 0.0313, "4-2": 0.0141, "4-3": 0.0042, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0136, "5-1": 0.0122, "5-2": 0.0055, "5-3": 0.0016, "6-0": 0.0044, "6-1": 0.004, "6-2": 0.0018, "6-3": 0.0005, "7-0": 0.0012, "7-1": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6188, "draw": 0.2148, "away_win": 0.1664 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5414, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4586, "btts_yes": 0.5086, "btts_no": 0.4914, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4074, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1426 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 7.04, "ATR": 6.94, "GK": 7.09 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 7.04 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Elche. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Villarreal 5W-3D-2L vs Elche over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ayoze Pérez", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Pape Gueye vs Marc Aguado). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.10, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.948, "away_lambda": 0.898, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1126, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6188, "draw": 0.2148, "away_win": 0.1664 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6188, "fair_spread": 1.05, "fair_total": 2.846, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.948, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 0.898, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5414, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5086, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4074, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1426, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ayoze Pérez (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.4939, "probability": 0.3898, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Fernando Niño (Elche)", "estimate": 0.3159, "probability": 0.2709, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.3187, "probability": 0.2729, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Roy Revivo (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1544, "probability": 0.1431, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.846, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 934, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 52.4, "possession_away_pct": 47.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6188, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.05 goals and fair total 2.85.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Ayoze Pérez against Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Ayoze Pérez; bench watchlist: Carlos Maciá, Nathan-Dylan Saliba.", "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Facundo Buonanotte, Rafa Mir, Martim Neto.", "Assist usage should flow through Alberto Moleiro; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.42 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Villarreal": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "player_id": 1172477, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 188, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2796, "goal_rate": 0.1408, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.067, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6637, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 7.382, "dispossessed": 1.3427, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1426, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0358, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "opponent_faced": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2439, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0648, "finishing_factor": 0.8296, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0696, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1448, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083573, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083282, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083102, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081808, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081806, "match_date": "2026-03-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4879, "combined_rank_score": 2974.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 914.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.504, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 5035.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6637, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yazan Al Arab", "ranking": 4874 }, { "player_name": "Lee Chang Geun", "ranking": 4875 }, { "player_name": "Song Bum Keun", "ranking": 4876 }, { "player_name": "Renato Steffen", "ranking": 4877 }, { "player_name": "Edimilson Fernandes", "ranking": 4878 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Zesiger", "ranking": 4880 }, { "player_name": "Timothé Cognat", "ranking": 4881 }, { "player_name": "Alvyn Sanches", "ranking": 4882 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zanotti", "ranking": 4883 }, { "player_name": "Silas Andersen", "ranking": 4884 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9995, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 31 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1739, "goals": 0.1361, "goal_rate": 0.1361, "shots_on_target": 0.436, "total_shots": 1.4033, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "key_pass": 0.6044, "rating": 6.6637, "minutes": 70.94, "total_pass": 7.2611, "accurate_pass": 4.7801, "duels_won": 2.7617, "total_long_balls": 0.3944, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3318, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3196, "crosses_total": 0.2609, "crosses_accurate": 0.1199, "touches": 17.5647, "possession_lost": 7.3857, "dispossessed": 1.3434, "duels_lost": 5.2434, "aerial_lost": 1.5667, "total_contest": 1.6587, "won_contest": 0.4143, "ball_recovery": 1.2471, "challenges_lost": 0.4715, "fouls": 0.6174, "fouls_drawn": 0.1755, "assists": 0.1199, "assist_rate": 0.1199, "interceptions": 0.1952, "tackles_won": 0.4968, "tackles": 0.7115, "clearances": 0.293, "blocks": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.1604, "big_chances_missed": 0.3957, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.3945, "ball_carries": 4.1629, "total_progression": 11.0856, "progressive_carries": 0.6052, "shots_off_target": 0.9673 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.0322, "expectedGoals": 0.0333, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 2.6019, "accuratePass": 3.5982, "totalShots": 0.308 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.17392657697200775, "model_output": 0.1739, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": 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} }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6043842434883118, "model_output": 0.6044, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1991 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0676 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0311 } ], "others": -0.1395, "total": 0.6044, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25898 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080682 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", 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integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.18, "goal_rate": 0.1408, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4509, "total_shots": 1.4523, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "key_pass": 0.6041, "rating": 6.6637, "minutes": 70.94, "total_pass": 7.2575, "accurate_pass": 4.7777, "duels_won": 2.7603, "total_long_balls": 0.3942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3316, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3179, "crosses_total": 0.2605, "crosses_accurate": 0.1198, "touches": 17.5559, "possession_lost": 7.382, "dispossessed": 1.3427, "duels_lost": 5.2408, "aerial_lost": 1.5659, "total_contest": 1.6579, "won_contest": 0.4141, "ball_recovery": 1.2465, "challenges_lost": 0.4713, "fouls": 0.6164, "fouls_drawn": 0.1752, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.496, "tackles": 0.7111, "clearances": 0.2929, "blocks": 0.173, "big_chances_created": 0.1603, "big_chances_missed": 0.4097, "xgot": 0.0918, "offsides": 0.3938, "ball_carries": 4.1608, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0372, "total": 6.8111, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056184 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019608 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.015529 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015393 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013755 } ], "others_margin": 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"interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1102, "combined_rank_score": 671.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 494.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8622, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 849.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.336, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alberto Moleiro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Merih Demiral", "ranking": 1097 }, { "player_name": "César Azpilicueta", "ranking": 1098 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Mirzayev", "ranking": 1099 }, { "player_name": 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"contribution": 0.5421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.049 } ], "others": 0.1838, "total": 2.397, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.54206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.13074 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.062817 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.054816 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.049016 } ], "others_margin": 0.183746 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.20306263864040375, "model_output": 0.2031, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0737, "total": 0.2031, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.219435 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.18264 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.116341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.100217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0819 } ], "others_margin": 0.450737 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.079226493835449, "model_output": 2.0792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1602 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1645 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1423 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1218 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0795 } ], "others": 0.7375, "total": 2.0792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.213481 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.180135 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.133292 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.101491 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.061091 } ], "others_margin": 0.437969 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.3359503746032715, "model_output": 7.336, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0468 } ], "others": 0.2775, "total": 7.3359, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066229 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.064152 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.060531 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.053672 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.046846 } ], "others_margin": 0.277517 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2455, "goals": 0.2664, "goal_rate": 0.2664, "shots_on_target": 0.826, "total_shots": 2.421, "expected_assists": 0.2051, "key_pass": 2.1, "rating": 7.336, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 35.9537, "accurate_pass": 31.029, "duels_won": 2.5097, "total_long_balls": 1.0278, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6823, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0664, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7141, "crosses_total": 2.9465, "crosses_accurate": 1.0157, "touches": 50.0045, "possession_lost": 11.4144, "dispossessed": 1.0662, "duels_lost": 4.9667, "aerial_lost": 0.2959, "total_contest": 2.3358, "won_contest": 0.8619, "ball_recovery": 2.5975, "challenges_lost": 1.2413, "fouls": 0.8991, "fouls_drawn": 0.7425, "assists": 0.3845, "assist_rate": 0.3845, "interceptions": 0.2535, "tackles_won": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2852 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.121 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0192 } ], "others": -0.0916, "total": 0.6257, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.285161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120968 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049024 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.045824 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019244 } ], "others_margin": -0.091575 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.933176517486572, "model_output": 6.9332, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0796 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.9332, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07957 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033339 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020424 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017778 } ], "others_margin": -0.001993 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8028, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.057, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.1831, "total_shots": 0.6257, "rating": 6.9332, "minutes": 70.67, "total_pass": 42.9083, "accurate_pass": 37.8468, "duels_won": 2.8458, "total_long_balls": 2.2378, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6552, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6594, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7781, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1875, "crosses_total": 0.545, "crosses_accurate": 0.1287, "touches": 54.2001, "possession_lost": 7.4379, "dispossessed": 0.5036, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_won": 0.2604, "aerial_lost": 0.6031, "interceptions": 1.2099, "tackles_won": 0.9166, "tackles": 1.2599, "clearances": 1.1451, "total_contest": 0.6316, "won_contest": 0.2851, "challenges_lost": 0.7926, "fouls": 1.5567, "fouls_drawn": 1.0404, "blocks": 0.4888, "big_chances_created": 0.0407, "big_chances_missed": 0.1606, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 13.012, "total_progression": 40.8809, "progressive_carries": 0.9313, "shots_off_target": 0.4426 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0104)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8028, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.057, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.1812, "total_shots": 0.6192, "rating": 6.9332, "minutes": 70.67, "total_pass": 42.9083, "accurate_pass": 37.8468, "duels_won": 2.8458, "total_long_balls": 2.2378, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6552, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6594, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7781, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1875, "crosses_total": 0.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.1287, "touches": 54.2001, "possession_lost": 7.4379, "dispossessed": 0.5036, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_won": 0.2604, "aerial_lost": 0.6031, "interceptions": 1.2085, "tackles_won": 0.9219, "tackles": 1.2599, "clearances": 1.1451, "total_contest": 0.6316, "won_contest": 0.2851, "challenges_lost": 0.7926, "fouls": 1.5628, "fouls_drawn": 1.0333, "blocks": 0.4888, "big_chances_created": 0.0407, "big_chances_missed": 0.1606, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 13.012, "total_progression": 40.8809, "progressive_carries": 0.9313, "shots_off_target": 0.4426 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0104, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7852, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0404, "after": 1.0333 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6257, "after": 0.6192 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5567, "after": 1.5628 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.545, "after": 0.5394 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9166, "after": 0.9219 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8028, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.057, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.1812, "total_shots": 0.6238, "rating": 6.9332, "minutes": 70.67, "total_pass": 42.9083, "accurate_pass": 37.8468, "duels_won": 2.8458, "total_long_balls": 2.2378, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6552, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6594, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7781, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1875, "crosses_total": 0.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.1287, "touches": 54.2001, "possession_lost": 7.4379, "dispossessed": 0.5036, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_won": 0.2604, "aerial_lost": 0.6031, "interceptions": 1.2085, "tackles_won": 0.9219, "tackles": 1.2599, "clearances": 1.1451, "total_contest": 0.6316, "won_contest": 0.2851, "challenges_lost": 0.7926, "fouls": 1.5628, "fouls_drawn": 1.0333, "blocks": 0.4888, "big_chances_created": 0.0407, "big_chances_missed": 0.1606, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 13.012, "total_progression": 40.8809, "progressive_carries": 0.9313, "shots_off_target": 0.4426 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8028, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goals": 0.055, "goal_rate": 0.055, "shots_on_target": 0.1862, "total_shots": 0.641, "rating": 6.9332, "minutes": 70.67, "total_pass": 42.9083, "accurate_pass": 37.8468, "duels_won": 2.8458, "total_long_balls": 2.2378, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6552, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6594, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7781, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1875, "crosses_total": 0.5394, "crosses_accurate": 0.1287, "touches": 54.2001, "possession_lost": 7.4379, "dispossessed": 0.5036, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.6031, "interceptions": 1.2085, "tackles_won": 0.9219, "tackles": 1.2599, "clearances": 1.1451, "total_contest": 0.6316, "won_contest": 0.2851, "challenges_lost": 0.7926, "fouls": 1.5628, "fouls_drawn": 1.0333, "blocks": 0.4888, "big_chances_created": 0.0407, "big_chances_missed": 0.165, "xgot": 0.1054, "ball_carries": 13.012, "total_progression": 40.8809, "progressive_carries": 0.9313, "shots_off_target": 0.4548, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0275, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matías Dituro", "opponent_faced": "Matías Dituro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matías Dituro", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0275, "skill_edge": 0.0347, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.5146, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matías Dituro", "market_value": 105000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0586 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2604, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6238, "after": 0.641 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4426, "after": 0.4548 }, { 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.322256 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1635 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.069848 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.057606 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.049487 } ], "others_margin": -0.117003 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.143579483032227, "model_output": 7.1436, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1257 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0974 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0188 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 7.1436, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.12567 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.09743 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023396 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.022252 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018839 } ], "others_margin": 0.002936 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Morcillo", "opponent_faced": "Javi Morcillo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javi Morcillo", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.628, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2615, "skill_edge": 0.1619, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.7972, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "market_value": 2100000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1423 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3941, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5512, "after": 1.9569 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9674, "after": 1.2204 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5838, "after": 0.7365 }, { "stat": 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{ "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2148, "combined_rank_score": 810.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 653.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7387, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 967.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7409, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking": 2143 }, { "player_name": "Lazar Samardžić", "ranking": 2144 }, { "player_name": "Giovanny 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"defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Villarreal, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goals": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124313 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.047612 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.040978 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.037265 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.031689 } ], "others_margin": 0.004768 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9731279015541077, "model_output": 0.9731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1199 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.054 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0265 } ], 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2199 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0838 } ], "others": -0.3098, "total": 2.2625, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.219422 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126692 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.08422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079534 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.032044 } ], "others_margin": -0.128358 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8589178323745728, "model_output": 0.8589, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1453 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1011 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0854 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0597 } ], "others": -0.1104, "total": 0.8589, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.252268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12732 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.086806 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.079733 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.059733 } ], "others_margin": -0.120996 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5719964504241943, "model_output": 0.572, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.572, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064228 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.042522 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022587 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020627 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009298 } ], "others_margin": -0.016591 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740901470184326, "model_output": 6.7409, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0249, "total": 6.7409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019153 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.0137 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012241 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01078 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.009608 } ], "others_margin": -0.024934 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "expected_goals": 0.0295, "expected_assists": 0.0972, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "expected_goals": 0.0295, "expected_assists": 0.0972, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "expected_goals": 0.0295, "expected_assists": 0.0972, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0295, "expected_assists": 0.0972, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "expected_assists": 0.151, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2465, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.948, "squad_xg_sum": 1.254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9174, "team_expected_assists": 1.4251, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7316, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5534, "xa_scale": 1.5534, "opponent_lambda": 0.898, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0295, "after": 0.0458 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0972, "after": 0.151 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "expected_assists": 0.151, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2465, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2148, "fifa_rank": 967.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "expected_assists": 0.151, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0448, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2465, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0448, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "scorer_weight": 0.0571, "squad_weight_total": 2.1033, "weight_share": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.2465, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ayoze Pérez", "weight": 0.5937, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5937, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0764, "tackles": 1.5816, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "clearances": 2.2625, "aerial_won": 0.8589, "total_shots": 0.572, "rating": 6.7409, "minutes": 85.18, "total_pass": 43.45, "accurate_pass": 37.0602, "duels_won": 4.0066, "total_long_balls": 2.9786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1963, "total_own_half_passes": 21.102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4508, "crosses_total": 2.6854, "crosses_accurate": 0.4611, "touches": 67.742, "possession_lost": 12.3254, "dispossessed": 0.4059, "duels_lost": 4.0731, "aerial_lost": 0.3631, "total_contest": 0.8939, "won_contest": 0.2406, "ball_recovery": 3.5455, "challenges_lost": 1.268, "fouls": 1.3899, "fouls_drawn": 1.1097, "blocks": 0.2491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0458, "expected_assists": 0.151, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "big_chances_created": 0.1615, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 14.6722, "total_progression": 68.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.4927, "key_pass": 0.6143, "shots_off_target": 0.4056, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0448, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1402, "finishing_factor": 1.2465, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1402, "assist_rate": 0.0113, "provider_weight": 0.1208, "squad_weight_total": 1.5258, "weight_share": 0.0792, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.3984, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3984, "runner_up": "Ilias Akhomach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2463, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ayoze Pérez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Renato Veiga": { "player_id": 1087359, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 190, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 72, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 48, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46, "total_opp_half_passes": 31, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 91, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.139, "shots_on_target": 0, 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0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 56, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2275, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 110, "accurate_pass": 106, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0336, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5786, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5983, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0708, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1296, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.093, "assist_rate": 0.093, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0076, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.5907 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.5907 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9983, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5786, "after": 0.5702 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.5907 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.5907, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.5907, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.139, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.5907, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0158 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.948, "squad_xg_sum": 1.254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9174, "team_expected_assists": 1.4251, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7316, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5534, "xa_scale": 1.5534, "opponent_lambda": 0.898, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0186, "after": 0.0289 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0895, "after": 0.139 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.139, "shots_on_target": 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"fifa_rank": 1247.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, 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"team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0231, "squad_weight_total": 2.1033, "weight_share": 0.011, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ayoze Pérez", "weight": 0.5937, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5937, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles": 0.8943, "tackles_won": 0.5702, "clearances": 5.3071, "aerial_won": 1.5948, "total_shots": 0.5993, "rating": 7.091, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1627, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9672, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6608, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0519, "crosses_accurate": 0.0519, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.7009, "fouls_drawn": 0.3366, "blocks": 1.1578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0295)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0519, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0295, "history_matches": 17, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8741, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1627, "after": 1.1886 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6608, "after": 0.6756 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9672, "after": 0.9817 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7009, "after": 0.6888 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3366, "after": 0.3439 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0504, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0504, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Thomas Lemar", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thomas Lemar", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0504, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Thomas Lemar", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0504, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "expected_assists": 0.0761, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Thomas Lemar", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.948, "squad_xg_sum": 1.254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9174, "team_expected_assists": 1.4251, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7316, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5534, "xa_scale": 1.5534, "opponent_lambda": 0.898, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0473, "after": 0.0735 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.049, "after": 0.0761 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0504, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "expected_assists": 0.0761, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Thomas Lemar", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1291, "fifa_rank": 962.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0504, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "expected_assists": 0.0761, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Thomas Lemar", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0709, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0709, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0588, "squad_weight_total": 2.1033, "weight_share": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ayoze Pérez", "weight": 0.5937, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5937, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1886, "tackles": 1.5308, "tackles_won": 0.9817, "clearances": 4.5091, "aerial_won": 1.6982, "total_shots": 0.6756, "rating": 6.899, "minutes": 78.67, "total_pass": 55.1794, "accurate_pass": 50.3703, "duels_won": 3.6958, "total_long_balls": 4.0685, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5323, "total_own_half_passes": 32.7857, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0661, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3042, "crosses_total": 0.0504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0504, "touches": 67.6412, "possession_lost": 5.7893, "dispossessed": 0.6508, "duels_lost": 2.4202, "aerial_lost": 0.8647, "total_contest": 0.1551, "won_contest": 0.1032, "ball_recovery": 3.9311, "challenges_lost": 0.1519, "fouls": 0.6888, "fouls_drawn": 0.3439, "blocks": 1.1578, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "expected_assists": 0.0761, "shots_on_target": 0.1422, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 19.8025, "total_progression": 72.8997, "progressive_carries": 0.1356, "key_pass": 0.1171, "shots_off_target": 0.5231, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Thomas Lemar", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 0.57, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063565 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.031216 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.030836 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022727 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.009196 } ], "others_margin": -0.00034 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9036407470703125, "model_output": 6.9036, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 6.9036, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042345 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037464 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020927 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018745 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.010552 } ], "others_margin": -0.011096 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0044, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 2.1922, "tackles_won": 1.329, "clearances": 2.9466, "aerial_won": 1.484, "total_shots": 0.5725, "rating": 6.9036, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.5171, "accurate_pass": 61.2004, "duels_won": 7.1804, "total_long_balls": 3.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8286, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.1086, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.0917, "crosses_total": 0.7589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.2233, "possession_lost": 7.9574, "dispossessed": 0.5089, "duels_lost": 3.9505, "aerial_lost": 1.0089, "total_contest": 1.6098, "won_contest": 1.1565, "ball_recovery": 6.2993, "challenges_lost": 1.7208, "fouls": 0.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7974, "blocks": 0.4211, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "shots_on_target": 0.1362, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0214, "ball_carries": 22.0223, "total_progression": 74.5567, "progressive_carries": 1.4152, "key_pass": 0.9807, "shots_off_target": 0.4363 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0044, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 2.1922, "tackles_won": 1.329, "clearances": 2.9466, "aerial_won": 1.484, "total_shots": 0.5725, "rating": 6.9036, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.5171, "accurate_pass": 61.2004, "duels_won": 7.1804, "total_long_balls": 3.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8286, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.1086, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.0917, "crosses_total": 0.7589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.2233, "possession_lost": 7.9574, "dispossessed": 0.5089, "duels_lost": 3.9505, "aerial_lost": 1.0089, "total_contest": 1.6098, "won_contest": 1.1565, "ball_recovery": 6.2993, "challenges_lost": 1.7208, "fouls": 0.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7974, "blocks": 0.4211, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "shots_on_target": 0.1362, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0214, "ball_carries": 22.0223, "total_progression": 74.5567, "progressive_carries": 1.4152, "key_pass": 0.9807, "shots_off_target": 0.4363 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 2.1922, "tackles_won": 1.329, "clearances": 2.9466, "aerial_won": 1.484, "total_shots": 0.5725, "rating": 6.9036, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.5171, "accurate_pass": 61.2004, "duels_won": 7.1804, "total_long_balls": 3.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8286, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.1086, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.0917, "crosses_total": 0.7589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.2233, "possession_lost": 7.9574, "dispossessed": 0.5089, "duels_lost": 3.9505, "aerial_lost": 1.0089, "total_contest": 1.6098, "won_contest": 1.1565, "ball_recovery": 6.2993, "challenges_lost": 1.7208, "fouls": 0.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7974, "blocks": 0.4211, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "shots_on_target": 0.1362, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0214, "ball_carries": 22.0223, "total_progression": 74.5567, "progressive_carries": 1.4152, "key_pass": 0.9807, "shots_off_target": 0.4363, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 2.1922, "tackles_won": 1.329, "clearances": 2.9466, "aerial_won": 1.484, "total_shots": 0.5725, "rating": 6.9036, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.5171, "accurate_pass": 61.2004, "duels_won": 7.1804, "total_long_balls": 3.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8286, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.1086, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.0917, "crosses_total": 0.7589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.2233, "possession_lost": 7.9574, "dispossessed": 0.5089, "duels_lost": 3.9505, "aerial_lost": 1.0089, "total_contest": 1.6098, "won_contest": 1.1565, "ball_recovery": 6.2993, "challenges_lost": 1.7208, "fouls": 0.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7974, "blocks": 0.4211, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "shots_on_target": 0.1362, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0214, "ball_carries": 22.0223, "total_progression": 74.5567, "progressive_carries": 1.4152, "key_pass": 0.9807, "shots_off_target": 0.4363, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 2.1922, "tackles_won": 1.329, "clearances": 2.9466, "aerial_won": 1.484, "total_shots": 0.5725, "rating": 6.9036, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.5171, "accurate_pass": 61.2004, "duels_won": 7.1804, "total_long_balls": 3.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8286, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.1086, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.0917, "crosses_total": 0.7589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.2233, "possession_lost": 7.9574, "dispossessed": 0.5089, "duels_lost": 3.9505, "aerial_lost": 1.0089, "total_contest": 1.6098, "won_contest": 1.1565, "ball_recovery": 6.2993, "challenges_lost": 1.7208, "fouls": 0.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7974, "blocks": 0.4211, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1362, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0332, "ball_carries": 22.0223, "total_progression": 74.5567, "progressive_carries": 1.4152, "key_pass": 0.9807, "shots_off_target": 0.4363, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.948, "squad_xg_sum": 1.254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9174, "team_expected_assists": 1.4251, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7316, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5534, "xa_scale": 1.5534, "opponent_lambda": 0.898, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0281, "after": 0.0437 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0335, "after": 0.052 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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500.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 2.1922, "tackles_won": 1.329, "clearances": 2.9466, "aerial_won": 1.484, "total_shots": 0.5725, "rating": 6.9036, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.5171, "accurate_pass": 61.2004, "duels_won": 7.1804, "total_long_balls": 3.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8286, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.1086, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.0917, "crosses_total": 0.7589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.2233, "possession_lost": 7.9574, "dispossessed": 0.5089, "duels_lost": 3.9505, "aerial_lost": 1.0089, "total_contest": 1.6098, "won_contest": 1.1565, "ball_recovery": 6.2993, "challenges_lost": 1.7208, "fouls": 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.035, "squad_weight_total": 2.1033, "weight_share": 0.0166, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ayoze Pérez", "weight": 0.5937, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5937, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 2.1922, "tackles_won": 1.329, "clearances": 2.9466, "aerial_won": 1.484, "total_shots": 0.5725, "rating": 6.9036, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.5171, "accurate_pass": 61.2004, "duels_won": 7.1804, "total_long_balls": 3.6674, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8286, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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}, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.10310880094766617, "model_output": 0.1031, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.1031, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.054654 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.021848 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.019463 }, { 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"totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7212974429130554, "model_output": 0.7213, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7673 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": 0.0574, "total": 0.7213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.801643 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.03678 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.031844 }, { "name": 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"totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.07472 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.036077 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.032333 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.028552 } ], "others_margin": 0.114863 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8107119798660278, "model_output": 0.8107, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0285 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2697 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0549 } ], "others": -0.1203, "total": 0.8107, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.89389 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.213256 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077828 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.062568 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.057316 } ], "others_margin": -0.13834 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.20203028619289398, "model_output": 0.202, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8088 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2107 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0252 } ], "others": -0.0707, "total": 0.202, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.884806 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.463109 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.092824 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.090578 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.088341 } ], "others_margin": -0.299813 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4529834985733032, "model_output": 0.453, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1858 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": -0.0383, "total": 0.453, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.245963 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.185843 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.028277 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026104 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022554 } ], "others_margin": -0.038332 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.796367168426514, "model_output": 6.7964, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0079, "total": 6.7964, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029752 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017273 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014197 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012314 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010573 } ], "others_margin": 0.007876 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0052, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2827, "tackles": 0.725, "tackles_won": 0.5505, "clearances": 0.8149, "aerial_won": 0.2031, "total_shots": 0.4554, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 24.39, "total_pass": 35.7306, "accurate_pass": 30.7546, "duels_won": 4.1125, "total_long_balls": 2.2529, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2656, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.509, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.8173, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2455, "crosses_total": 1.5253, "crosses_accurate": 0.2161, "touches": 55.0889, "possession_lost": 9.3129, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.6552, "aerial_lost": 0.4979, "total_contest": 2.1569, "won_contest": 1.391, "ball_recovery": 4.3531, "challenges_lost": 0.624, "fouls": 0.3334, "fouls_drawn": 0.9044, "blocks": 0.4865, "goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.0655, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.3544, "big_chances_created": 0.0628, "xgot": 0.1243, "ball_carries": 15.6808, "total_progression": 69.8476, "progressive_carries": 2.2043, "key_pass": 0.7796, "shots_off_target": 0.1009 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0052, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.28, "tackles": 0.725, "tackles_won": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.8149, "aerial_won": 0.2031, "total_shots": 0.4516, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 24.39, "total_pass": 35.7306, "accurate_pass": 30.7546, "duels_won": 4.1125, "total_long_balls": 2.2529, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2656, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.509, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.8173, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2455, "crosses_total": 1.5117, "crosses_accurate": 0.2161, "touches": 55.0889, "possession_lost": 9.3129, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.6552, "aerial_lost": 0.4979, "total_contest": 2.1569, "won_contest": 1.391, "ball_recovery": 4.3531, "challenges_lost": 0.624, "fouls": 0.3313, "fouls_drawn": 0.9006, "blocks": 0.4865, "goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.3495, "big_chances_created": 0.0628, "xgot": 0.1243, "ball_carries": 15.6808, "total_progression": 69.8476, "progressive_carries": 2.2043, "key_pass": 0.7796, "shots_off_target": 0.1009 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.271, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5253, 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true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2087, "combined_rank_score": 793.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 339.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9929, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1248.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7688, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Santiago Mouriño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 }, { "player_name": "Franco Rami", "ranking": 2084 }, { "player_name": "Jon Aramburu", "ranking": 2085 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Haikin", "ranking": 2086 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mason Mount", "ranking": 2088 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Partey", "ranking": 2089 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Izzatov", "ranking": 2090 }, { "player_name": "Gyu-baeg Lee", "ranking": 2091 }, { "player_name": "Brian Oyola", "ranking": 2092 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", 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"margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.000622 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058431 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.051846 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.04799 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042589 } ], "others_margin": -0.135027 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.45453885197639465, "model_output": 0.4545, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8245 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0661 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0713, "total": 0.4545, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.912797 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.12725 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057713 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048327 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.028636 } ], "others_margin": -0.145964 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19861356914043427, "model_output": 0.1986, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2532 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.1986, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.253154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.025077 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.007736 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.006222 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.005343 } ], "others_margin": -0.004514 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.76876163482666, "model_output": 6.7688, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0066 } ], "others": -0.023, "total": 6.7688, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026788 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.022372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01347 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.009621 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.006633 } ], "others_margin": -0.023142 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3146, "tackles": 0.5893, "tackles_won": 0.3258, "clearances": 1.109, "aerial_won": 0.4566, "total_shots": 0.1995, "rating": 6.7688, "minutes": 19.33, "total_pass": 10.9755, "accurate_pass": 9.4563, "duels_won": 1.4605, "total_long_balls": 0.6727, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6727, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5149, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5601, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8962, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7111, "possession_lost": 2.0834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5643, "aerial_lost": 0.2822, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9548, "challenges_lost": 0.2822, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2822, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2393, "total_progression": 4.2224, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0046, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3112, "tackles": 0.5893, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "clearances": 1.109, "aerial_won": 0.4566, "total_shots": 0.199, "rating": 6.7688, "minutes": 19.33, "total_pass": 10.9755, "accurate_pass": 9.4563, "duels_won": 1.4605, "total_long_balls": 0.6727, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6727, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5149, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5601, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8962, "crosses_total": 0.0024, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7111, "possession_lost": 2.0834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5643, "aerial_lost": 0.2822, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9548, "challenges_lost": 0.2822, "fouls": 0.0072, "fouls_drawn": 0.2817, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "shots_on_target": 0.0012, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2393, "total_progression": 4.2224, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1995 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2148, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0072 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.2769928276538849, "model_output": 0.277, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3544 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2284 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": -0.0317, "total": 0.277, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.354427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.228369 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041022 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036916 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026141 } ], "others_margin": -0.031666 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.670641899108887, "model_output": 6.6706, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0839 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 6.6706, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051359 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021076 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01774 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014036 } ], "others_margin": -0.02983 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2118, "expected_assists": 0.015, "assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.0712, "total_shots": 0.279, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 14.72, "total_pass": 8.9534, "accurate_pass": 7.8397, "duels_won": 1.109, "total_long_balls": 0.6562, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3174, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2893, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5504, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3316, "possession_lost": 1.8092, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.0621, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.4037, "tackles_won": 0.3836, "tackles": 0.8883, "clearances": 0.4884, "total_contest": 0.2502, "won_contest": 0.0536, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.1671, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7793, "total_progression": 13.9075, "progressive_carries": 0.2059, "shots_off_target": 0.2078 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2118, "expected_assists": 0.015, "assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.021, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.0706, "total_shots": 0.2768, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 14.72, "total_pass": 8.9534, "accurate_pass": 7.8397, "duels_won": 1.109, "total_long_balls": 0.6562, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3174, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2893, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5504, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3316, "possession_lost": 1.8092, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.0621, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.4031, "tackles_won": 0.3882, "tackles": 0.8883, "clearances": 0.4884, "total_contest": 0.2502, "won_contest": 0.0536, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.1756, "fouls_drawn": 0.1658, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7793, "total_progression": 13.9075, "progressive_carries": 0.2059, "shots_off_target": 0.2078 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1636, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.7 to 23.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.33, "projection_minutes": 14.72, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2432, "creation_factor": 1.1241 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.948, "squad_xg_sum": 1.254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9174, "team_expected_assists": 1.4251, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7316, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5534, "xa_scale": 1.5534, "opponent_lambda": 0.898, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 65.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2432, "creation_factor": 1.1241, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7717, "fifa_rank": 11804.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, 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"creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0971 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.071 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0231, "total": 6.7808, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097066 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071049 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029811 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024099 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017399 } ], "others_margin": -0.023136 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0091, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.419, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.0559, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.4257, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 26.96, "total_pass": 42.2629, "accurate_pass": 38.2787, "duels_won": 4.2649, "total_long_balls": 1.8631, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5539, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1895, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3128, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9659, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6756, "possession_lost": 6.632, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 4.4186, "aerial_won": 0.854, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 1.1199, "tackles_won": 1.0853, "tackles": 2.0632, "clearances": 1.0913, "total_contest": 1.1649, "won_contest": 0.3387, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.6834, "fouls_drawn": 1.0091, "blocks": 0.1421, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.5034, "total_progression": 50.8351, "progressive_carries": 0.7665, "shots_off_target": 0.3096 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0091, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.48, "projection_minutes": 26.96, "minutes_scale": 0.8339, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0563 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.948, "squad_xg_sum": 1.254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9174, "team_expected_assists": 1.4251, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7316, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5534, "xa_scale": 1.5534, "opponent_lambda": 0.898, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0269, "after": 0.0218 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0563, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4406, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0214, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0563, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0214, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "scorer_weight": 0.0272, "squad_weight_total": 2.1033, "weight_share": 0.013, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ayoze Pérez", "weight": 0.5937, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5937, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0214, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0154, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0563, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0154, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "provider_weight": 0.0165, "squad_weight_total": 1.5258, "weight_share": 0.0108, "creation_factor": 1.0563, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.3984, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3984, "runner_up": "Ilias Akhomach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2463, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ayoze Pérez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "player_id": 1009372, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 176, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1788, "goal_rate": 0.1553, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0727, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1699, "goals": 0.1482, "goal_rate": 0.1482, "shots_on_target": 0.5016, "total_shots": 1.1747, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "key_pass": 0.6815, "rating": 6.829, "minutes": 25.38, "total_pass": 8.7745, "accurate_pass": 7.449, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.3719, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2481, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2661, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.09, "touches": 14.9974, "possession_lost": 3.8833, "dispossessed": 0.5733, "duels_lost": 2.0503, "aerial_lost": 0.3736, "total_contest": 1.679, "won_contest": 0.6521, "ball_recovery": 0.6731, "challenges_lost": 0.0764, "fouls": 0.0895, "fouls_drawn": 0.5836, "assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "interceptions": 0.047, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.363, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1788, "goal_rate": 0.1553, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5266, "total_shots": 1.235, "expected_assists": 0.0727, "key_pass": 0.7172, "rating": 6.829, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 9.2346, "accurate_pass": 7.8396, "duels_won": 1.4166, "total_long_balls": 0.3914, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2611, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5422, "crosses_total": 0.4645, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 15.7838, "possession_lost": 4.0869, "dispossessed": 0.5733, "duels_lost": 2.1578, "aerial_lost": 0.3736, "total_contest": 1.767, "won_contest": 0.6863, "ball_recovery": 0.7084, "challenges_lost": 0.0764, "fouls": 0.0958, "fouls_drawn": 0.6087, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0488, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0684, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2472, "big_chances_missed": 0.3344, "xgot": 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"F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 183, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0087, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.134, "dispossessed": 0.467, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1005, "expected_assists": 0.2611, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "expected_assists": 0.232, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1172, "expected_assists": 0.2105, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 572.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0087, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolas Pépé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joseph Otunenche", "ranking": 555 }, { "player_name": "Dean Huijsen", "ranking": 556 }, { "player_name": "Jarrod Bowen", "ranking": 557 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Alonso Martin", "ranking": 558 }, { "player_name": "Marco Román", "ranking": 559 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Javi Navarro", "ranking": 561 }, { "player_name": "Jordi Pesquer", "ranking": 562 }, { "player_name": "Diego Lacosta", "ranking": 563 }, { "player_name": "Luca Williams-Barnett", "ranking": 564 }, { "player_name": "Tynan Thompson", "ranking": 565 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.777, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", 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"model_output": 0.0755, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0927 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 0.0755, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.608392 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.144623 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.14251 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.085745 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.052214 } ], "others_margin": -0.062396 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30654603242874146, "model_output": 0.3065, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.231 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.3065, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561449 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.115107 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.08936 }, { "name": 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"margin": 0.172757 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094697 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.065098 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.046848 } ], "others_margin": -0.026956 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10244179517030716, "model_output": 0.1024, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0048 } ], "others": 0.0265, "total": 0.1024, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.356349 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.263184 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.103106 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.090998 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.06514 } ], "others_margin": 0.30097 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8331126570701599, "model_output": 0.8331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2427 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0876 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0908 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.037 } ], "others": 0.1459, "total": 0.8331, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446999 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.185071 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.161535 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.065243 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.05542 } ], "others_margin": 0.192606 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.008725166320801, "model_output": 7.0087, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.072 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0381 } ], "others": 0.1268, "total": 7.0087, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071971 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.050518 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.049632 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048692 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.038146 } ], "others_margin": 0.126705 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0669, "goals": 0.0754, "goal_rate": 0.0754, "shots_on_target": 0.3063, "total_shots": 1.1554, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "key_pass": 0.8325, "rating": 7.0087, "minutes": 21.4, "total_pass": 8.7746, "accurate_pass": 7.1478, "duels_won": 1.5946, "total_long_balls": 0.0994, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8271, "crosses_total": 0.1596, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5568, "possession_lost": 3.4737, "dispossessed": 0.467, "duels_lost": 1.9689, "aerial_lost": 0.1885, "total_contest": 1.4953, "won_contest": 0.8402, "ball_recovery": 1.434, "challenges_lost": 0.3213, "fouls": 0.3371, "fouls_drawn": 0.0833, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3253, "tackles_won": 0.37, "tackles": 0.5605, "clearances": 0.4089, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2989, "big_chances_missed": 0.0492, "xgot": 0.0189, "offsides": 0.2333, "ball_carries": 3.91, "total_progression": 26.3468, "progressive_carries": 1.1722, "shots_off_target": 0.8491 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0669, "goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.3079, "total_shots": 1.1487, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "key_pass": 0.8325, "rating": 7.0087, "minutes": 21.4, "total_pass": 8.7746, "accurate_pass": 7.1478, "duels_won": 1.5946, "total_long_balls": 0.0994, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8271, "crosses_total": 0.1675, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5568, "possession_lost": 3.4737, "dispossessed": 0.467, "duels_lost": 1.9689, "aerial_lost": 0.1885, "total_contest": 1.4953, "won_contest": 0.8402, "ball_recovery": 1.434, "challenges_lost": 0.3213, "fouls": 0.3329, "fouls_drawn": 0.0866, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3223, "tackles_won": 0.3676, "tackles": 0.5605, "clearances": 0.4089, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2989, "big_chances_missed": 0.0492, "xgot": 0.0189, "offsides": 0.2304, "ball_carries": 3.91, "total_progression": 26.3468, "progressive_carries": 1.1722, "shots_off_target": 0.8491 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2378, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1596, "after": 0.1675 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1554, "after": 1.1487 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", 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"Ferro", "ranking": 7714 }, { "player_name": "Liziero", "ranking": 7715 }, { "player_name": "Ianis Stoica", "ranking": 7716 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Facundo Agustín Cáseres", "ranking": 7718 }, { "player_name": "Weverson", "ranking": 7719 }, { "player_name": "José Fontán", "ranking": 7720 }, { "player_name": "Dario Špikić", "ranking": 7721 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Maga", "ranking": 7722 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 9, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", 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0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1564 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.0706, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.654046 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.354202 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.262906 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.169733 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.141723 } ], "others_margin": -0.229174 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2769928276538849, "model_output": 0.277, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3544 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2284 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": -0.0317, "total": 0.277, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.354427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.228369 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041022 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036916 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026141 } ], "others_margin": -0.031666 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.670641899108887, "model_output": 6.6706, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0839 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 6.6706, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051359 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021076 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01774 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014036 } ], "others_margin": -0.02983 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2118, "expected_assists": 0.015, "assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.0712, "total_shots": 0.279, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 14.72, "total_pass": 8.9534, "accurate_pass": 7.8397, "duels_won": 1.109, "total_long_balls": 0.6562, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3174, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2893, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5504, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3316, "possession_lost": 1.8092, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.0621, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.4037, "tackles_won": 0.3836, "tackles": 0.8883, "clearances": 0.4884, 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14.7 to 23.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.33, "projection_minutes": 14.72, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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"assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3177, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4301, "accurate_pass": 11.7595, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.9843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4761, "total_own_half_passes": 5.33, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9339, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4974, "possession_lost": 2.7138, "dispossessed": 0.1208, "duels_lost": 1.5932, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1208, "interceptions": 0.6047, "tackles_won": 0.5823, "tackles": 1.3324, "clearances": 0.7326, "total_contest": 0.3753, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4496, "fouls": 0.2634, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.669, "total_progression": 20.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.3117, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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"contribution": -0.3638 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": -0.1399, "total": 0.4219, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.363823 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05215 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028231 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02483 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.021212 } ], "others_margin": -0.13989 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.780792236328125, "model_output": 6.7808, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0971 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.071 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0231, "total": 6.7808, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097066 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071049 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029811 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024099 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017399 } ], "others_margin": -0.023136 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0091, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.419, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.0559, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.4257, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 26.96, "total_pass": 42.2629, "accurate_pass": 38.2787, "duels_won": 4.2649, "total_long_balls": 1.8631, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5539, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1895, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3128, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9659, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6756, "possession_lost": 6.632, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 4.4186, "aerial_won": 0.854, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 1.1199, "tackles_won": 1.0853, "tackles": 2.0632, "clearances": 1.0913, "total_contest": 1.1649, "won_contest": 0.3387, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.6834, "fouls_drawn": 1.0091, "blocks": 0.1421, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.5034, "total_progression": 50.8351, "progressive_carries": 0.7665, "shots_off_target": 0.3096 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0091, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.48, "projection_minutes": 26.96, "minutes_scale": 0.8339, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.95 (squad xG sum 1.2540, xG scale 1.5534, xA scale 1.5534, team xA 1.43 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.094, "total_progression": 42.39, "progressive_carries": 0.6392, "shots_off_target": 0.2582, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.162, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0563 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.948, "squad_xg_sum": 1.254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9174, "team_expected_assists": 1.4251, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7316, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5534, "xa_scale": 1.5534, "opponent_lambda": 0.898, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0269, "after": 0.0218 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3494, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0968, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7808, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 35.2419, "accurate_pass": 31.9196, "duels_won": 3.5564, "total_long_balls": 1.5536, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2958, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7689, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1507, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.5925, "possession_lost": 5.5302, "dispossessed": 0.9796, "duels_lost": 3.6846, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "aerial_lost": 0.3733, "interceptions": 0.9339, "tackles_won": 0.905, "tackles": 1.7204, "clearances": 0.91, "total_contest": 0.9714, "won_contest": 0.2824, "challenges_lost": 0.5562, "fouls": 1.4037, "fouls_drawn": 0.8415, "blocks": 0.1185, 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 7.0409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.046532 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.023237 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.020419 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018744 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016109 } ], "others_margin": -0.00325 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8878, "goals_prevented": -0.1245, "rating": 7.0409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.5544, "accurate_pass": 36.1715, "total_long_balls": 25.8849, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0748, "touches": 60.7769, "clearances": 0.9636, "ball_recovery": 8.7374, "high_claims": 1.2197, "punches": 1.0871, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "sweeper_actions": 0.8631, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8208, "saves_inside_box": 1.5172, "possession_lost": 15.7327, "duels_won": 0.3563, "duels_lost": 0.2231, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0545, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4307 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 105000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9971, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0186)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8775, "goals_prevented": -0.1245, "rating": 7.0409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.5544, "accurate_pass": 36.1715, "total_long_balls": 25.8849, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0748, "touches": 60.7769, "clearances": 0.9636, "ball_recovery": 8.7374, "high_claims": 1.2197, "punches": 1.0871, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "sweeper_actions": 0.8631, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8208, "saves_inside_box": 1.5172, "possession_lost": 15.7327, "duels_won": 0.3563, "duels_lost": 0.2231, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0535, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4307 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0186, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8878, "after": 2.8775 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8775, "goals_prevented": -0.1245, "rating": 7.0409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.5544, "accurate_pass": 36.1715, "total_long_balls": 25.8849, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0748, "touches": 60.7769, "clearances": 0.9636, "ball_recovery": 8.7374, "high_claims": 1.2197, "punches": 1.0871, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "sweeper_actions": 0.8631, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8208, "saves_inside_box": 1.5172, "possession_lost": 15.7327, "duels_won": 0.3563, "duels_lost": 0.2231, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0535, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4307 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8775, "goals_prevented": -0.1245, "rating": 7.0409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.5544, "accurate_pass": 36.1715, "total_long_balls": 25.8849, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0748, "touches": 60.7769, "clearances": 0.9636, "ball_recovery": 8.7374, "high_claims": 1.2197, "punches": 1.0871, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "sweeper_actions": 0.8631, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8208, "saves_inside_box": 1.5172, "possession_lost": 15.7327, "duels_won": 0.3563, "duels_lost": 0.2231, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0535, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4307, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8387, "shots_faced": 17.5, "expected_saves": 4.29, "high_pressure_saves": 1.47, "opponent_faced": "Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.8387 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8775, "goals_prevented": -0.1245, "rating": 7.0409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.5544, "accurate_pass": 36.1715, "total_long_balls": 25.8849, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0748, "touches": 60.7769, "clearances": 0.9636, "ball_recovery": 8.7374, "high_claims": 1.2197, "punches": 1.0871, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "sweeper_actions": 0.8631, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8208, "saves_inside_box": 1.5172, "possession_lost": 15.7327, "duels_won": 0.3563, "duels_lost": 0.2231, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0535, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4307, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8387, "shots_faced": 17.5, "expected_saves": 4.29, "high_pressure_saves": 1.47, "opponent_faced": "Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8976, xG scale 1.0004, xA scale 0.8162, team xA 0.72 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8775, "goals_prevented": -0.1245, "rating": 7.0409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.5544, "accurate_pass": 36.1715, "total_long_balls": 25.8849, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0748, "touches": 60.7769, "clearances": 0.9636, "ball_recovery": 8.7374, "high_claims": 1.2197, "punches": 1.0871, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "sweeper_actions": 0.8631, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8208, "saves_inside_box": 1.5172, "possession_lost": 15.7327, "duels_won": 0.3563, "duels_lost": 0.2231, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0535, "total_own_half_passes": 31.7939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4307, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8387, "shots_faced": 18.5, "expected_saves": 4.53, "high_pressure_saves": 1.56, "opponent_faced": "Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.898, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8976, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8802, "team_expected_assists": 0.7184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0004, "xa_scale": 0.8162, "opponent_lambda": 1.948, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 17.5, "after": 18.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.29, "after": 4.53 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.47, "after": 1.56 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.040062 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.03557 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018993 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017057 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014279 } ], "others_margin": -0.078882 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6736, "tackles": 1.6407, "tackles_won": 1.1178, "clearances": 2.2932, "aerial_won": 0.6637, "total_shots": 0.3368, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 72.5, "total_pass": 23.0784, "accurate_pass": 19.04, "duels_won": 3.005, "total_long_balls": 1.837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3845, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.144, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.896, "crosses_total": 1.152, "crosses_accurate": 0.1919, "touches": 38.4208, "possession_lost": 7.7027, "dispossessed": 0.3753, "duels_lost": 3.1357, "aerial_lost": 0.5119, "total_contest": 1.1749, "won_contest": 0.2819, "ball_recovery": 1.3544, "challenges_lost": 0.1107, "fouls": 1.3341, "fouls_drawn": 0.5949, "blocks": 0.1337, "goals": 0.0856, "goal_rate": 0.0856, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0856, "big_chances_created": 0.0233, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 8.1427, "total_progression": 39.0577, "progressive_carries": 1.2116, "key_pass": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.2512 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0262)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6632, "tackles": 1.6407, "tackles_won": 1.1322, "clearances": 2.2932, "aerial_won": 0.6637, "total_shots": 0.3352, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 72.5, "total_pass": 23.0784, "accurate_pass": 19.04, "duels_won": 3.005, "total_long_balls": 1.837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3845, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.144, 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1.1364 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1178, "after": 1.1322 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6736, "after": 0.6632 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0856, "after": 0.0906 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6632, "tackles": 1.6407, "tackles_won": 1.1322, "clearances": 2.2932, "aerial_won": 0.6637, "total_shots": 0.3417, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 72.5, "total_pass": 23.0784, "accurate_pass": 19.04, "duels_won": 3.005, "total_long_balls": 1.837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3845, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.144, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.896, "crosses_total": 1.1364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1919, "touches": 38.4208, "possession_lost": 7.7027, "dispossessed": 0.3753, "duels_lost": 3.1357, "aerial_lost": 0.5119, "total_contest": 1.1749, "won_contest": 0.2819, "ball_recovery": 1.3544, 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Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6632, "tackles": 1.6407, "tackles_won": 1.1322, "clearances": 2.2932, "aerial_won": 0.6637, "total_shots": 0.3417, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 72.5, "total_pass": 23.0784, "accurate_pass": 19.04, "duels_won": 3.005, "total_long_balls": 1.837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3845, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.144, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.896, "crosses_total": 1.1364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1919, "touches": 38.4208, "possession_lost": 7.7027, "dispossessed": 0.3753, "duels_lost": 3.1357, "aerial_lost": 0.5119, "total_contest": 1.1749, "won_contest": 0.2819, "ball_recovery": 1.3544, "challenges_lost": 0.1107, "fouls": 1.3355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5939, "blocks": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0905, "big_chances_created": 0.0233, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 8.1427, "total_progression": 39.0577, "progressive_carries": 1.2116, "key_pass": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.2512, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8976, xG scale 1.0004, xA scale 0.8162, team xA 0.72 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6632, "tackles": 1.6407, "tackles_won": 1.1322, "clearances": 2.2932, "aerial_won": 0.6637, "total_shots": 0.3417, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 72.5, "total_pass": 23.0784, "accurate_pass": 19.04, "duels_won": 3.005, "total_long_balls": 1.837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3845, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.144, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.896, "crosses_total": 1.1364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1919, "touches": 38.4208, "possession_lost": 7.7027, "dispossessed": 0.3753, "duels_lost": 3.1357, "aerial_lost": 0.5119, "total_contest": 1.1749, "won_contest": 0.2819, "ball_recovery": 1.3544, "challenges_lost": 0.1107, "fouls": 1.3355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5939, "blocks": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.0905, "big_chances_created": 0.0233, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 8.1427, "total_progression": 39.0577, "progressive_carries": 1.2116, "key_pass": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.2512, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.898, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8976, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8802, "team_expected_assists": 0.7184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0004, "xa_scale": 0.8162, "opponent_lambda": 1.948, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6632, "tackles": 1.6407, "tackles_won": 1.1322, "clearances": 2.2932, "aerial_won": 0.6637, "total_shots": 0.3417, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 72.5, "total_pass": 23.0784, "accurate_pass": 19.04, "duels_won": 3.005, "total_long_balls": 1.837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3845, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.144, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.896, "crosses_total": 1.1364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1919, "touches": 38.4208, "possession_lost": 7.7027, "dispossessed": 0.3753, "duels_lost": 3.1357, "aerial_lost": 0.5119, "total_contest": 1.1749, "won_contest": 0.2819, "ball_recovery": 1.3544, "challenges_lost": 0.1107, "fouls": 1.3355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5939, "blocks": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 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"goal_rate": 0.0905, "scorer_weight": 0.0066, "squad_weight_total": 1.0138, "weight_share": 0.0065, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6632, "tackles": 1.6407, "tackles_won": 1.1322, "clearances": 2.2932, "aerial_won": 0.6637, "total_shots": 0.3417, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 72.5, "total_pass": 23.0784, "accurate_pass": 19.04, "duels_won": 3.005, "total_long_balls": 1.837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3845, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.144, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.896, "crosses_total": 1.1364, "crosses_accurate": 0.1919, "touches": 38.4208, "possession_lost": 7.7027, "dispossessed": 0.3753, "duels_lost": 3.1357, "aerial_lost": 0.5119, "total_contest": 1.1749, "won_contest": 0.2819, "ball_recovery": 1.3544, 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"stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3754, "after": 0.3157 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1971, "after": 0.1657 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3157, "goal_rate": 0.3615, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8104, "total_shots": 1.9075, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.5723, "rating": 6.8734, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2236, "accurate_pass": 12.0699, "duels_won": 6.5488, "total_long_balls": 0.0973, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0973, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9279, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.3519, "possession_lost": 11.5725, "dispossessed": 1.872, "duels_lost": 8.6034, "aerial_lost": 3.7029, "total_contest": 2.5987, "won_contest": 0.9666, "ball_recovery": 1.6852, 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} }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8976, xG scale 1.0004, xA scale 0.8162, team xA 0.72 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3159, "goal_rate": 0.3615, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8104, "total_shots": 1.9075, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.5723, "rating": 6.8734, "minutes": 74.72, "total_pass": 17.2236, "accurate_pass": 12.0699, "duels_won": 6.5488, "total_long_balls": 0.0973, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0973, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9279, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.3519, "possession_lost": 11.5725, "dispossessed": 1.872, "duels_lost": 8.6034, "aerial_lost": 3.7029, "total_contest": 2.5987, "won_contest": 0.9666, "ball_recovery": 1.6852, "challenges_lost": 0.5767, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 1.7024, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1145, "goals": 0.156, "goal_rate": 0.156, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.051, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "key_pass": 1.5236, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 83.94, "total_pass": 29.8687, "accurate_pass": 25.592, "duels_won": 4.3807, "total_long_balls": 1.4733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5119, "crosses_total": 2.6955, "crosses_accurate": 1.1243, "touches": 49.0614, "possession_lost": 10.5949, "dispossessed": 1.1427, "duels_lost": 3.5711, "aerial_lost": 0.3596, "total_contest": 1.83, "won_contest": 0.9055, "ball_recovery": 2.7257, "challenges_lost": 0.1534, "fouls": 1.2461, "fouls_drawn": 2.0299, "assists": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0484, "interceptions": 0.8401, "tackles_won": 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0.1091, "total_contest": 1.5648, "won_contest": 1.1002, "challenges_lost": 0.516, "fouls": 0.8391, "fouls_drawn": 0.8946, "blocks": 0.0229, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0374, "xgot": 0.1022, "ball_carries": 17.5324, "total_progression": 48.5347, "progressive_carries": 1.2868, "shots_off_target": 0.6488 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2905, "expected_assists": 0.1178, "assists": 0.0922, "assist_rate": 0.0922, "expected_goals": 0.0893, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.3751, "total_shots": 1.024, "rating": 6.9889, "minutes": 73.41, "total_pass": 34.5264, "accurate_pass": 30.6024, "duels_won": 3.8678, "total_long_balls": 2.4527, 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"Lassana Coulibaly", "ranking": 4710 }, { "player_name": "Jesper Karlsson", "ranking": 4711 }, { "player_name": "Deyverson", "ranking": 4712 }, { "player_name": "Dany Mota", "ranking": 4713 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.759, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", 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"name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0975 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0584 } ], "others": 0.128, "total": 1.1645, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27002 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.144681 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.10052 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.059134 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.057969 } ], "others_margin": 0.116429 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.932671546936035, "model_output": 6.9327, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0697 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 6.9327, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.069746 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.03164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026715 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019389 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.018872 } ], "others_margin": -0.000692 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9956, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1259, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.4726, "total_shots": 1.386, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "key_pass": 1.1593, "rating": 6.9327, "minutes": 79.52, "total_pass": 28.4044, "accurate_pass": 23.2744, "duels_won": 5.4366, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5488, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2765, "crosses_total": 1.7003, "crosses_accurate": 0.6681, "touches": 45.8003, "possession_lost": 9.9945, "dispossessed": 0.8711, "duels_lost": 4.8108, "aerial_lost": 1.1239, "total_contest": 2.2596, "won_contest": 1.4983, "ball_recovery": 4.0948, "challenges_lost": 0.9956, "fouls": 1.0589, "fouls_drawn": 2.4326, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4333, "tackles_won": 1.0359, "tackles": 1.3409, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1939, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0306, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.2736, "total_progression": 58.7657, "progressive_carries": 0.9933, "shots_off_target": 0.9134 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9956, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0085)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1259, "goals": 0.1604, "goal_rate": 0.1604, "shots_on_target": 0.4854, "total_shots": 1.4164, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "key_pass": 1.1593, "rating": 6.9327, "minutes": 79.52, "total_pass": 28.4044, "accurate_pass": 23.2744, "duels_won": 5.4366, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5488, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8442, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2765, "crosses_total": 1.7358, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5317, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "assists": 0.0397, "assist_rate": 0.0397, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1204, "total_shots": 0.5015, "rating": 6.8263, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 38.9164, "accurate_pass": 36.0629, "duels_won": 1.8193, "total_long_balls": 1.9508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1199, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1486, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4508, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6121, "crosses_total": 0.0052, "crosses_accurate": 0.0052, "touches": 45.8317, "possession_lost": 3.3827, "dispossessed": 0.0368, "duels_lost": 2.1134, "aerial_won": 0.2122, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 1.047, "tackles_won": 0.631, "tackles": 0.8955, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0476, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "assists": 0.0833, "assist_rate": 0.0833, "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0767, "shots_on_target": 0.2438, "total_shots": 0.7359, "rating": 6.935, "minutes": 79.3, "total_pass": 45.253, "accurate_pass": 40.9702, "duels_won": 5.466, "total_long_balls": 1.6343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8684, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9168, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0534, "crosses_total": 1.5387, "crosses_accurate": 0.5281, "touches": 57.8563, "possession_lost": 8.0392, "dispossessed": 1.1274, "duels_lost": 3.8354, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "aerial_lost": 0.7559, "interceptions": 0.5495, "tackles_won": 0.8492, "tackles": 1.6936, "clearances": 0.4331, "total_contest": 1.1943, "won_contest": 0.8229, "challenges_lost": 0.3103, "fouls": 1.4076, "fouls_drawn": 2.1268, "blocks": 0.0548, "big_chances_created": 0.1217, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0928, "ball_carries": 17.8918, "total_progression": 32.1156, "progressive_carries": 1.0295, "shots_off_target": 0.4921 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0260)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0476, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "assists": 0.0888, "assist_rate": 0.0888, "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.2604, "total_shots": 0.7472, "rating": 6.935, "minutes": 79.3, "total_pass": 45.253, "accurate_pass": 40.9702, "duels_won": 5.466, "total_long_balls": 1.6343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8684, 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"shots_on_target": 0.1892, "total_shots": 0.5468, "rating": 6.935, "minutes": 79.3, "total_pass": 45.253, "accurate_pass": 40.9702, "duels_won": 5.466, "total_long_balls": 1.6343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8684, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9168, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0534, "crosses_total": 1.5674, "crosses_accurate": 0.5281, "touches": 57.8563, "possession_lost": 8.0392, "dispossessed": 1.1274, "duels_lost": 3.8354, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7559, "interceptions": 0.5505, "tackles_won": 0.8424, "tackles": 1.6936, "clearances": 0.4331, "total_contest": 1.1943, "won_contest": 0.8229, "challenges_lost": 0.3103, "fouls": 1.4321, "fouls_drawn": 2.1784, "blocks": 0.0548, "big_chances_created": 0.1217, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0674, "ball_carries": 17.8918, "total_progression": 32.1156, "progressive_carries": 1.0295, "shots_off_target": 0.3576, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7267, 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midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8976, xG scale 1.0004, xA scale 0.8162, team xA 0.72 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0476, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0888, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0514, "goal_rate": 0.0543, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1892, "total_shots": 0.5468, "rating": 6.935, "minutes": 79.3, "total_pass": 45.253, "accurate_pass": 40.9702, "duels_won": 5.466, "total_long_balls": 1.6343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8684, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9168, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0534, "crosses_total": 1.5674, "crosses_accurate": 0.5281, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9957, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8455, "goals_prevented": 0.0443, "rating": 7.4153, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 55.9338, "accurate_pass": 40.7859, "total_long_balls": 22.83, "accurate_long_balls": 8.3554, "touches": 66.5625, "clearances": 1.655, "ball_recovery": 10.2013, "high_claims": 0.5242, "punches": 0.5931, "aerial_won": 0.225, "sweeper_actions": 1.3333, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3177, "saves_inside_box": 2.4931, "possession_lost": 15.452, "duels_won": 0.225, "duels_lost": 0.4396, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.027, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0283 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9957, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4415, "goals_prevented": 0.0069, "rating": 7.4153, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.42, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1551, "appearance_probability": 0.11 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4415, "goals_prevented": 0.0069, "rating": 7.4153, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4415, "goals_prevented": 0.0069, "rating": 7.4153, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.11, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4415, "goals_prevented": 0.0069, "rating": 7.4153, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3365, "fifa_rank": 2437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Kevin Lomónaco": { "player_id": 1003014, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 192, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.9984, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.31, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.82, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3656, "combined_rank_score": 1619.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3076.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin Lomónaco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bashir Humphreys", "ranking": 3651 }, { "player_name": "Altimira", "ranking": 3652 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Almirón", "ranking": 3653 }, { "player_name": "Marko Livaja", "ranking": 3654 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Chust", "ranking": 3655 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "ranking": 3657 }, { "player_name": "Quilindschy Hartman", "ranking": 3658 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Dorley", "ranking": 3659 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Matviienko", "ranking": 3660 }, { "player_name": "Hamed Junior Traorè", "ranking": 3661 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.824307952762858, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3101958160346754, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5011, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€8,199,999) scaled to 13.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.50)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles": 2.4, "tackles_won": 1.5, "clearances": 2.7, 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0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.023, "shots_off_target": 0.0307, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0.0922, "ball_carries": 3.0721, "total_progression": 9.2162, "progressive_carries": 0.768, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.31, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.82 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.82, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1536, "appearance_probability": 0.31 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2458, "tackles": 0.3686, "tackles_won": 0.2304, "clearances": 0.4147, "aerial_won": 0.3533, "duels_won": 0.8448, "total_pass": 6.7586, "accurate_pass": 5.3761, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 13.82, "total_long_balls": 0.9216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4608, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5329, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0752, "crosses_total": 0.1382, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2458, "tackles": 0.3686, "tackles_won": 0.2304, "clearances": 0.4147, "aerial_won": 0.3533, "duels_won": 0.8448, "total_pass": 6.7586, "accurate_pass": 5.3761, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 13.82, "total_long_balls": 0.9216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4608, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5329, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0752, "crosses_total": 0.1382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0614, "touches": 9.2162, "possession_lost": 0.9984, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5376, "aerial_lost": 2.0, "total_contest": 0.6144, "won_contest": 0.3533, "ball_recovery": 0.768, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.1536, "fouls_drawn": 0.1075, "blocks": 0.1075, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.023, 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 6.6514, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.038856 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.028324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014839 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011803 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.010635 } ], "others_margin": -0.028819 } } ], 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"projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.075, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": 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"key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083637, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081803, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.6792, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, 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0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 0.0479, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.14611 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.088526 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.087168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061235 } ], "others_margin": -0.087049 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21502068638801575, "model_output": 0.215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1277 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": 0.0101, "total": 0.215, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.497458 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222613 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.142955 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077818 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.035542 } ], "others_margin": 0.048422 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4437662959098816, "model_output": 0.4438, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.397 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2279 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0749 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0395, "total": 0.4438, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.397008 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.227896 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074919 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.026299 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.011542 } ], "others_margin": -0.039624 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.764666557312012, "model_output": 6.7647, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0867 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": 0.0146, "total": 6.7647, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086657 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030816 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011523 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.009836 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.006782 } ], "others_margin": 0.014506 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.447)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6404, "expected_assists": 0.058, "assists": 0.0986, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "expected_goals": 0.049, "goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.2145, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 25.2, "total_pass": 13.7347, "accurate_pass": 11.6125, "duels_won": 1.5617, "total_long_balls": 0.532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4926, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4804, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7439, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8686, "crosses_total": 0.4367, "crosses_accurate": 0.1777, "touches": 18.7303, "possession_lost": 3.5688, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1652, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.3419, "tackles": 0.4511, "clearances": 0.205, "total_contest": 1.1254, "won_contest": 0.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1676, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.113, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0501, "ball_carries": 5.9407, "total_progression": 32.6926, "progressive_carries": 1.2791, "shots_off_target": 0.2281 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3800000, "quality_factor": 0.4474, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0062)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6404, "expected_assists": 0.058, "assists": 0.098, "assist_rate": 0.098, "expected_goals": 0.049, "goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.0474, "shots_on_target": 0.2132, "total_shots": 0.4418, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 25.2, "total_pass": 13.7347, "accurate_pass": 11.6125, "duels_won": 1.5617, "total_long_balls": 0.532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4926, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4804, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7439, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8686, "crosses_total": 0.4375, "crosses_accurate": 0.1777, "touches": 18.7303, "possession_lost": 3.5688, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1652, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.056, "tackles_won": 0.3398, "tackles": 0.4511, "clearances": 0.205, "total_contest": 1.1254, "won_contest": 0.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1683, "fouls_drawn": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.113, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0501, "ball_carries": 5.9407, "total_progression": 32.6926, "progressive_carries": 1.2791, "shots_off_target": 0.2281 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0062, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.28, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2103 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0335 } ], "others": -0.2013, "total": 0.1514, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316046 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.210311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04176 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041231 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.033522 } ], "others_margin": -0.201297 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727186679840088, "model_output": 6.7272, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0687 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": 0.0069, "total": 6.7272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068689 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037978 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027793 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009001 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00735 } ], "others_margin": 0.006938 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9952, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2538, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assists": 0.0257, "assist_rate": 0.0257, "expected_goals": 0.0144, "goals": 0.0258, "goal_rate": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.0534, "total_shots": 0.1507, "rating": 6.7272, "minutes": 16.48, "total_pass": 8.9993, "accurate_pass": 8.1865, "duels_won": 0.9525, "total_long_balls": 0.7688, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4967, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0748, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1117, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5598, "possession_lost": 1.53, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1908, "aerial_won": 0.386, "aerial_lost": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.3621, "tackles_won": 0.2404, "tackles": 0.2404, "clearances": 0.7481, 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{ "name": "goals", "margin": 0.036472 } ], "others_margin": -0.09895 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.36289530992507935, "model_output": 0.3629, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2068 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": 0.03, "total": 0.3629, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.485409 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.053661 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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}, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113679 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.066233 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.037765 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.027724 } ], "others_margin": -0.065006 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03861613571643829, "model_output": 0.0386, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 0.0386, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.40959 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.125368 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.101194 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.077998 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.050052 } ], "others_margin": 0.053241 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4177272319793701, "model_output": 0.4177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2462 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 0.4177, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085653 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079011 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.071512 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.06531 } ], "others_margin": 0.005404 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637449264526367, "model_output": 6.6374, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0612, "total": 6.6374, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087555 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022108 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021678 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009532 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009345 } ], "others_margin": -0.061306 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "shots_on_target": 0.364, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.419, "rating": 6.6374, "minutes": 15.47, "total_pass": 5.469, "accurate_pass": 3.7085, "duels_won": 0.396, "total_long_balls": 0.1661, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3921, "crosses_total": 0.3908, "crosses_accurate": 0.1954, "touches": 9.5639, "possession_lost": 3.3392, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 1.8355, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.396, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.1412, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1412, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2299, "xgot": 0.0475, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.689, "total_progression": 28.6143, "progressive_carries": 0.8213, "shots_off_target": 0.4108 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0170)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.3633, "total_shots": 0.7755, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.419, "rating": 6.6374, "minutes": 15.47, "total_pass": 5.469, "accurate_pass": 3.7085, "duels_won": 0.396, "total_long_balls": 0.1661, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3921, "crosses_total": 0.3921, "crosses_accurate": 0.1954, "touches": 9.5639, "possession_lost": 3.3392, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 1.8355, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.396, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.1412, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.1713, "fouls_drawn": 0.0027, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2299, "xgot": 0.0475, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.689, "total_progression": 28.6143, "progressive_carries": 0.8213, "shots_off_target": 0.4108 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.017, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1719, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.1661, "after": 0.1713 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.5 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { 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1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.6162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.47, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goals": 0.1108, "goal_rate": 0.1108, "shots_on_target": 0.545, "total_shots": 1.1632, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6285, "rating": 6.6374, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 0.594, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5882, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.2931, "touches": 14.3459, "possession_lost": 5.0088, "dispossessed": 0.2299, "duels_lost": 2.7532, "aerial_lost": 0.9662, "total_contest": 0.594, "won_contest": 0.3448, "ball_recovery": 0.2118, "challenges_lost": 0.3072, "fouls": 0.257, "fouls_drawn": 0.004, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2122, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3448, "xgot": 0.0713, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.5335, "total_progression": 42.9215, "progressive_carries": 1.232, "shots_off_target": 0.6162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goal_rate": 0.1108, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.545, "total_shots": 1.1632, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6285, "rating": 6.6374, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 8.2035, "accurate_pass": 5.5627, "duels_won": 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"ranking": 1948 }, { "player_name": "Yang Tae-Yang", "ranking": 1949 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Giacopetti", "ranking": 1950 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Guedes", "ranking": 1952 }, { "player_name": "Justin Kluivert", "ranking": 1953 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Gloukh", "ranking": 1954 }, { "player_name": "Misael Dávila", "ranking": 1955 }, { "player_name": "Yeray", "ranking": 1956 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", 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{ "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.044, "total": 0.3037, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449993 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069509 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.056463 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05549 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.029766 } ], "others_margin": -0.135059 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.655171871185303, "model_output": 6.6552, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0595 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1205, "goals": 0.1971, "goal_rate": 0.1971, "shots_on_target": 0.5909, "total_shots": 1.0897, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.3029, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 4.1743, "accurate_pass": 3.776, "duels_won": 0.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.3762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4044, "crosses_total": 0.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8123, "possession_lost": 2.5306, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7345, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.2402, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4444, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4988 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1512, "goals": 0.2473, "goal_rate": 0.2473, "shots_on_target": 0.7414, "total_shots": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3801, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 20.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2548, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1512, "goals": 0.2473, "goal_rate": 0.2473, "shots_on_target": 0.7414, "total_shots": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3801, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1205, "goals": 0.1971, "goal_rate": 0.1971, "shots_on_target": 0.5909, "total_shots": 1.0897, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.3029, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 4.1743, "accurate_pass": 3.776, "duels_won": 0.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.3762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4044, "crosses_total": 0.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8123, "possession_lost": 2.5306, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7345, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.2402, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4444, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4988 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1512, "goals": 0.2473, "goal_rate": 0.2473, "shots_on_target": 0.7414, "total_shots": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3801, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 20.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2548, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1512, "goals": 0.2473, "goal_rate": 0.2473, "shots_on_target": 0.7414, "total_shots": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3801, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1512, "goal_rate": 0.2473, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7414, "total_shots": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3801, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8976, xG scale 1.0004, xA scale 0.8162, team xA 0.72 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.2473, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7414, "total_shots": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3801, "rating": 6.6552, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.898, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8976, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8802, "team_expected_assists": 0.7184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0004, "xa_scale": 0.8162, "opponent_lambda": 1.948, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1512, "after": 0.0849 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0245, "after": 0.0112 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0612, "total": 6.6374, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087555 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022108 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021678 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009532 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009345 } ], "others_margin": -0.061306 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.447)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6404, "expected_assists": 0.058, "assists": 0.0986, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "expected_goals": 0.049, "goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.2145, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 25.2, "total_pass": 13.7347, "accurate_pass": 11.6125, "duels_won": 1.5617, "total_long_balls": 0.532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4926, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4804, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7439, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8686, "crosses_total": 0.4367, "crosses_accurate": 0.1777, "touches": 18.7303, "possession_lost": 3.5688, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1652, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.3419, "tackles": 0.4511, "clearances": 0.205, "total_contest": 1.1254, "won_contest": 0.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1676, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.113, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0501, "ball_carries": 5.9407, "total_progression": 32.6926, "progressive_carries": 1.2791, "shots_off_target": 0.2281 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3800000, "quality_factor": 0.4474, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0062)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6404, "expected_assists": 0.058, "assists": 0.098, "assist_rate": 0.098, "expected_goals": 0.049, "goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.0474, "shots_on_target": 0.2132, "total_shots": 0.4418, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 25.2, "total_pass": 13.7347, "accurate_pass": 11.6125, "duels_won": 1.5617, "total_long_balls": 0.532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4926, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4804, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7439, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8686, "crosses_total": 0.4375, "crosses_accurate": 0.1777, "touches": 18.7303, "possession_lost": 3.5688, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1652, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.056, "tackles_won": 0.3398, "tackles": 0.4511, "clearances": 0.205, "total_contest": 1.1254, "won_contest": 0.8216, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1683, "fouls_drawn": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.113, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0501, "ball_carries": 5.9407, "total_progression": 32.6926, "progressive_carries": 1.2791, "shots_off_target": 0.2281 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0062, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.28, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.2 to 24.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.057, "assists": 0.0963, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.2095, "total_shots": 0.4341, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 13.4949, "accurate_pass": 11.4097, "duels_won": 1.5344, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.484, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.696, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7138, "crosses_total": 0.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.1746, "touches": 18.4033, "possession_lost": 3.5065, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1449, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.4432, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 1.1058, "won_contest": 0.8073, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.2839, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 5.837, "total_progression": 32.1218, "progressive_carries": 1.2568, "shots_off_target": 0.2241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.76, "projection_minutes": 25.2, "minutes_scale": 0.9825, "appearance_probability": 0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.057, "assists": 0.0963, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.2095, "total_shots": 0.4341, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 13.4949, "accurate_pass": 11.4097, "duels_won": 1.5344, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.484, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.696, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7138, "crosses_total": 0.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.1746, "touches": 18.4033, "possession_lost": 3.5065, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1449, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.4432, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 1.1058, "won_contest": 0.8073, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.2839, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 5.837, "total_progression": 32.1218, "progressive_carries": 1.2568, "shots_off_target": 0.2241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.057, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2095, "total_shots": 0.4341, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 13.4949, "accurate_pass": 11.4097, "duels_won": 1.5344, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.484, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.696, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7138, "crosses_total": 0.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.1746, "touches": 18.4033, "possession_lost": 3.5065, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1449, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.4432, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 1.1058, "won_contest": 0.8073, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.2839, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 5.837, "total_progression": 32.1218, "progressive_carries": 1.2568, "shots_off_target": 0.2241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8976, xG scale 1.0004, xA scale 0.8162, team xA 0.72 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2095, "total_shots": 0.4341, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 13.4949, "accurate_pass": 11.4097, "duels_won": 1.5344, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.484, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.696, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7138, "crosses_total": 0.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.1746, "touches": 18.4033, "possession_lost": 3.5065, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1449, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.4432, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 1.1058, "won_contest": 0.8073, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.2839, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0246, "ball_carries": 5.837, "total_progression": 32.1218, "progressive_carries": 1.2568, "shots_off_target": 0.2241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9847, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.898, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8976, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8802, "team_expected_assists": 0.7184, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0004, "xa_scale": 0.8162, "opponent_lambda": 1.948, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.5 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0481, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.057, "after": 0.0233 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2095, "total_shots": 0.4341, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 13.4949, "accurate_pass": 11.4097, "duels_won": 1.5344, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.484, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.696, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7138, "crosses_total": 0.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.1746, "touches": 18.4033, "possession_lost": 3.5065, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1449, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.4432, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 1.1058, "won_contest": 0.8073, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.2839, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0246, "ball_carries": 5.837, "total_progression": 32.1218, "progressive_carries": 1.2568, "shots_off_target": 0.2241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9847, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4398, "fifa_rank": 4263.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2095, "total_shots": 0.4341, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 13.4949, "accurate_pass": 11.4097, "duels_won": 1.5344, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.484, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.696, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7138, "crosses_total": 0.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.1746, "touches": 18.4033, "possession_lost": 3.5065, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1449, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.4432, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 1.1058, "won_contest": 0.8073, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.2839, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0246, "ball_carries": 5.837, "total_progression": 32.1218, "progressive_carries": 1.2568, "shots_off_target": 0.2241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0235, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9847, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0235, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "scorer_weight": 0.0237, "squad_weight_total": 1.0138, "weight_share": 0.0234, "finishing_factor": 0.9847, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2095, "total_shots": 0.4341, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 13.4949, "accurate_pass": 11.4097, "duels_won": 1.5344, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.484, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.696, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7138, "crosses_total": 0.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.1746, "touches": 18.4033, "possession_lost": 3.5065, "dispossessed": 0.3645, "duels_lost": 1.1449, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1776, "interceptions": 0.055, "tackles_won": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.4432, "clearances": 0.2014, "total_contest": 1.1058, "won_contest": 0.8073, "challenges_lost": 0.1517, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.2839, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.111, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0246, "ball_carries": 5.837, "total_progression": 32.1218, "progressive_carries": 1.2568, "shots_off_target": 0.2241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.212, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0235, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0228, "finishing_factor": 0.9847, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "provider_weight": 0.0291, "squad_weight_total": 0.7026, "weight_share": 0.0415, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9, "expected_assists": 0.72, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 443, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "xg_contribution": 0.18, "xg_multiplier": 1.0358, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tani Oluwaseyi (ST) is evenly matched against Buba Sangaré and Roy Revivo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.180 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "xg_contribution": 0.2871, "xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (ST) is slightly favored against Buba Sangaré and Roy Revivo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.287 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ayoze Pérez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.3179, "xg_multiplier": 0.9719, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayoze Pérez (ST) is evenly matched against Buba Sangaré and Roy Revivo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.318 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilias Akhomach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.192, "xg_contribution": 0.1114, "xg_multiplier": 0.9876, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilias Akhomach (ST) is evenly matched against Buba Sangaré and Roy Revivo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Santi Comesaña", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Matías Dituro" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.0586, "xg_multiplier": 1.0275, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matías Dituro", "role": "GK", "market_value": 105000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santi Comesaña (LM) is evenly matched against Matías Dituro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.628, "xg_contribution": 0.1423, "xg_multiplier": 1.2615, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.372 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 63%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.26 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Thomas Lemar", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Juan Foyth" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.37, "xg_contribution": 0.0748, "xg_multiplier": 0.8381, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Foyth", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thomas Lemar (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Juan Foyth in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Villar", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.0514, "xg_multiplier": 0.7267, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Villar (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3157, "xg_multiplier": 0.8409, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.316 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0879, "xg_multiplier": 0.768, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Cepeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0956, "xg_multiplier": 0.7595, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Cepeda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Javi Morcillo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.222, "xg_contribution": 0.0217, "xg_multiplier": 0.7385, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javi Morcillo (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.022 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marc Aguado", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.0201, "xg_multiplier": 0.7202, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Aguado (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.020 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.614, "away_midfield_power": 0.465, "home_creative_power": 0.544, "away_creative_power": 0.374, "home_defensive_power": 0.544, "away_defensive_power": 0.374, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.569, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Santi Comesaña", "Pape Gueye" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Thomas Lemar", "Marc Aguado", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Pape Gueye vs Marc Aguado", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.028, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.972 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.948, "away_lambda": 0.898, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ayoze Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Santi Comesaña": { "opponents": [ "Matías Dituro", "Javi Morcillo", "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Gonzalo Villar", "Marc Aguado" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juan Foyth": { "opponents": [ "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño", "Germán Valera", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexander Freeman": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño", "Germán Valera", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Péter Gulácsi": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergi Cardona": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Tani Oluwaseyi", "Alberto Moleiro", "Ayoze Pérez", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roy Revivo": { "opponents": [ "Tani Oluwaseyi", "Alberto Moleiro", "Ayoze Pérez", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thomas Lemar": { "opponents": [ "Juan Foyth", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Cepeda": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Aguado": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Pape Gueye vs Marc Aguado). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.10, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.056, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0164, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9605, "home_midfield_factor": 1.028, "away_midfield_factor": 0.972, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5899, "away_avg_quality": 0.4473, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1425, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.4909, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.5591, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.4488, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3418, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.188, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1094, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0973, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1605 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.028, "result": 1.193 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 1.1452 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.317 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0685, "result": 1.4073 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.4222 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0164, "result": 1.4455 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.6255 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.6255, "result": 1.6255, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3418, "factor": 1.188, "pre": 1.6255, "result": 1.9311 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.9311 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.159, "result": 2.09 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9877, "result": 1.8387 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8387, "result": 1.839, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.839, "result": 1.8784, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0905, "pre": 1.8784, "result": 2.048 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.048 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9512, "input_total": 2.846, "result": 1.9481 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.9481, "result": 1.948, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.948 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6672, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8379 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.972, "result": 0.8144 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 0.8714 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8714 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9886, "result": 0.8615 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.8707 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9605, "result": 0.8363 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.056, "result": 0.8923 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8923, "result": 0.8923, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3418, "factor": 0.8906, "pre": 0.8923, "result": 0.7947 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7947 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1945, "result": 0.9895 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9852, "result": 0.9885 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9885, "result": 0.989, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 0.989, "result": 0.9678, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9758, "pre": 0.9678, "result": 0.944 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.944 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9512, "input_total": 2.846, "result": 0.8979 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.8979, "result": 0.898, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.898 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.159, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1945, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3418, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0905, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9758, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.8784, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.9678, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.048, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.944, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8387, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9885, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.948, "final_away_lambda": 0.898 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0685, "attack_index": 1.021, "defense_concede_index": 1.15, "form_multiplier": 1.009, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.58, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.78, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9886, "attack_index": 0.956, "defense_concede_index": 1.021, "form_multiplier": 0.991, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.48, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.58, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Villarreal vs Elche. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.839, Away 0.989). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.948, Away 0.898 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Elche", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.948, "away_lambda": 0.898, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.839, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.989 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:31:52Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }