{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Hull", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1313, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.124, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0988, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2799, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1313 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.124 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0988 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0973 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0847 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0973, "0-1": 0.0988, "0-2": 0.052, "0-3": 0.018, "0-4": 0.0047, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.124, "1-1": 0.1313, "1-2": 0.0677, "1-3": 0.0235, "1-4": 0.0061, "1-5": 0.0013, "2-0": 0.0815, "2-1": 0.0847, "2-2": 0.0441, "2-3": 0.0153, "2-4": 0.004, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0354, "3-1": 0.0368, "3-2": 0.0191, "3-3": 0.0066, "3-4": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0115, "4-1": 0.012, "4-2": 0.0062, "4-3": 0.0022, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.003, "5-1": 0.0031, "5-2": 0.0016, "5-3": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0007, "6-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4241, "draw": 0.2799, "away_win": 0.296 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4151, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5849, "btts_yes": 0.4718, "btts_no": 0.5282, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3535, "away_clean_sheet": 0.272 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.63, "MCR": 6.78, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.94 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Fulham vs Hull. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Fulham 6W-1D-3L vs Hull over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Gonzalo García, Mohamed Belloumi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Josh King vs Tim Iroegbunam). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.302, "away_lambda": 1.04, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 6, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1313, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4241, "draw": 0.2799, "away_win": 0.296 }, "favorite": "Fulham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4241, "fair_spread": 0.262, "fair_total": 2.342, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.302, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.04, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4151, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4718, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3535, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.272, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Gonzalo García (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.3629, "probability": 0.3043, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Mohamed Belloumi (Hull)", "estimate": 0.2697, "probability": 0.2364, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Iwobi (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.1906, "probability": 0.1735, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sorba Thomas (Hull)", "estimate": 0.1245, "probability": 0.1171, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.342, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 766, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.7, "possession_home_pct": 51.7, "possession_away_pct": 48.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Fulham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4241, "script": "Fulham is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.26 goals and fair total 2.34.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Fulham lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Fulham chance creation leans on Gonzalo García against Lucas Herrington, Semi Ajayi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through Gonzalo García; bench watchlist: Kevin, Rodrigo Muniz, Emile Smith Rowe.", "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through Mohamed Belloumi; bench watchlist: Christos Mouzakitis, Robinio Vaz, Ilyas Ansah.", "Assist usage should flow through Alex Iwobi, Sorba Thomas; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Fulham tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.17 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Fulham.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Fulham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bernd Leno": { "player_id": 103335, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 190, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 29, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 48, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0634, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi, Oli McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363877, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2112 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0629 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.8958 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4348 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, 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"Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1642 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4913 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2819 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.6589 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1549, "combined_rank_score": 633.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 416.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9263, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 850.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0072, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bernd Leno", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alisher Salimov", "ranking": 1544 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 1545 }, { "player_name": "Her Dong-min", "ranking": 1546 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jørgensen", "ranking": 1547 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Boscagli", "ranking": 1548 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fredrik Aursnes", "ranking": 1550 }, { "player_name": "Yuri Berchiche", "ranking": 1551 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Trejo", "ranking": 1552 }, { "player_name": "Han Jong-Mu", "ranking": 1553 }, { "player_name": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "ranking": 1554 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8922, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8518, "accurate_pass": 29.2109, "total_long_balls": 13.575, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0173, "touches": 48.2576, "clearances": 1.1129, "ball_recovery": 8.4719, "high_claims": 0.792, "punches": 0.5751, "aerial_won": 0.2802, "sweeper_actions": 1.2921, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2921, "saves_inside_box": 1.7861, "possession_lost": 9.6956, "duels_won": 0.3195, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0533, "total_own_half_passes": 26.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.105 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "saves": 2.889, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8091, "accurate_pass": 29.1788, "total_long_balls": 13.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0129, "touches": 48.2045, "clearances": 1.1117, "ball_recovery": 8.4626, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0.2799, "sweeper_actions": 1.2907, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2907, "saves_inside_box": 1.7841, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0.3191, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0763 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "saves": 2.89, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8091, "accurate_pass": 29.1788, "total_long_balls": 13.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0129, "touches": 48.2045, "clearances": 1.1117, "ball_recovery": 8.4626, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0.2799, "sweeper_actions": 1.2907, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2907, "saves_inside_box": 1.7841, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0.3191, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0527, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0763 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.89, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8091, "accurate_pass": 29.1788, "total_long_balls": 13.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0129, "touches": 48.2045, "clearances": 1.1117, "ball_recovery": 8.4626, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0.2799, "sweeper_actions": 1.2907, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2907, "saves_inside_box": 1.7841, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0.3191, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0527, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0763 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.89, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8091, "accurate_pass": 29.1788, "total_long_balls": 13.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0129, "touches": 48.2045, "clearances": 1.1117, "ball_recovery": 8.4626, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0.2799, "sweeper_actions": 1.2907, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2907, "saves_inside_box": 1.7841, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0.3191, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0527, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0763, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0634, "shots_faced": 10.1, "expected_saves": 2.47, "high_pressure_saves": 0.85, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi, Oli McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi, Oli McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.0634 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.89, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8091, "accurate_pass": 29.1788, "total_long_balls": 13.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0129, "touches": 48.2045, "clearances": 1.1117, "ball_recovery": 8.4626, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0.2799, "sweeper_actions": 1.2907, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2907, "saves_inside_box": 1.7841, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0.3191, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0527, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0763, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0634, "shots_faced": 10.1, "expected_saves": 2.47, "high_pressure_saves": 0.85, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi, Oli McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3502, xG scale 0.9643, xA scale 1.0725, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.89, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8091, "accurate_pass": 29.1788, "total_long_balls": 13.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0129, "touches": 48.2045, "clearances": 1.1117, "ball_recovery": 8.4626, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0.2799, "sweeper_actions": 1.2907, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2907, "saves_inside_box": 1.7841, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0.3191, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0527, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0763, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0634, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi, Oli McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3502, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7891, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.1, "after": 9.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.47, "after": 2.42 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.85, "after": 0.83 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.89, "goals_prevented": 0.007, "rating": 7.0072, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.8091, "accurate_pass": 29.1788, "total_long_balls": 13.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0129, "touches": 48.2045, "clearances": 1.1117, "ball_recovery": 8.4626, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.5745, "aerial_won": 0.2799, "sweeper_actions": 1.2907, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2907, "saves_inside_box": 1.7841, "possession_lost": 9.6849, "duels_won": 0.3191, "duels_lost": 0.0068, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0527, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0763, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0634, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi, Oli McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 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"contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 6.7368, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012603 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012592 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012001 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.006673 } ], "others_margin": -0.016796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0133, "tackles": 1.5432, "tackles_won": 0.9715, "clearances": 3.3142, "aerial_won": 1.0233, "total_shots": 0.4945, "rating": 6.7368, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.325, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.249, "fouls_drawn": 0.7292, "blocks": 0.6733, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0797, "assist_rate": 0.0797, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2601, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2344 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0142, "tackles": 1.5432, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "clearances": 3.3142, "aerial_won": 1.0233, "total_shots": 0.4949, "rating": 6.7368, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, 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1.2632 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7292, "after": 0.743 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0142, "tackles": 1.5432, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "clearances": 3.3142, "aerial_won": 1.0233, "total_shots": 0.4971, "rating": 6.7368, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2344, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0142, "tackles": 1.5432, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "clearances": 3.3142, "aerial_won": 1.0233, "total_shots": 0.4971, "rating": 6.7368, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2344, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3502, xG scale 0.9643, xA scale 1.0725, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0142, "tackles": 1.5432, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "clearances": 3.3142, "aerial_won": 1.0233, "total_shots": 0.4971, "rating": 6.7368, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0873, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0531, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2344, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.009 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3502, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7891, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0829, "after": 0.0889 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0142, "tackles": 1.5432, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "clearances": 3.3142, "aerial_won": 1.0233, "total_shots": 0.4971, "rating": 6.7368, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0873, "expected_assists": 0.0889, 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"global_player_rank": 3169, "fifa_rank": 2190.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0142, "tackles": 1.5432, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "clearances": 3.3142, "aerial_won": 1.0233, "total_shots": 0.4971, "rating": 6.7368, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0873, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0531, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2344, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0836, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.009, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 5.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { 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"decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1831 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1735 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0898 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0748 } ], "others": -0.1544, "total": 1.4807, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.142623 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135685 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.07249 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059243 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.046843 } ], "others_margin": -0.099288 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5671804547309875, "model_output": 0.5672, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0575 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": 0.0208, "total": 0.5672, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057461 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027839 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.027075 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02636 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014059 } ], "others_margin": 0.020724 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.817131996154785, "model_output": 6.8171, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0024, "total": 6.8171, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.039186 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.02807 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020487 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.01919 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.017576 } ], "others_margin": 0.002438 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.612)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2072, "tackles": 1.6188, "tackles_won": 1.0186, "clearances": 5.1975, "aerial_won": 1.4857, "total_shots": 0.5691, "rating": 6.8171, "minutes": 88.73, "total_pass": 64.7445, "accurate_pass": 55.6142, "duels_won": 4.001, "total_long_balls": 7.3702, "accurate_long_balls": 1.67, "total_own_half_passes": 40.6882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2512, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3631, "crosses_total": 0.1793, "crosses_accurate": 0.0297, "touches": 80.7335, "possession_lost": 10.4143, "dispossessed": 0.1568, "duels_lost": 3.1958, "aerial_lost": 1.4134, "total_contest": 0.5358, "won_contest": 0.3963, "ball_recovery": 4.4053, "challenges_lost": 0.4889, "fouls": 0.9973, "fouls_drawn": 0.6264, "blocks": 0.8741, "goals": 0.0241, 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"after": 0.584 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6264, "after": 0.6359 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9973, "after": 0.9881 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2072, "after": 1.2132 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2132, "tackles": 1.6188, "tackles_won": 1.0181, "clearances": 5.1975, "aerial_won": 1.4857, "total_shots": 0.584, "rating": 6.8171, "minutes": 88.73, "total_pass": 64.7445, "accurate_pass": 55.6142, "duels_won": 4.001, "total_long_balls": 7.3702, "accurate_long_balls": 1.67, "total_own_half_passes": 40.6882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2512, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3631, "crosses_total": 0.1814, "crosses_accurate": 0.0297, "touches": 80.7335, "possession_lost": 10.4143, "dispossessed": 0.1568, "duels_lost": 3.1958, "aerial_lost": 1.4134, "total_contest": 0.5358, "won_contest": 0.3963, "ball_recovery": 4.4053, "challenges_lost": 0.4889, "fouls": 0.9881, "fouls_drawn": 0.6359, "blocks": 0.8741, "goals": 0.0238, "goal_rate": 0.0238, "assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.0558, "big_chances_created": 0.0564, "xgot": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 21.267, "total_progression": 64.0861, "progressive_carries": 0.8573, "key_pass": 0.3072, "shots_off_target": 0.5125 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2132, "tackles": 1.6188, "tackles_won": 1.0181, "clearances": 5.1975, "aerial_won": 1.4857, "total_shots": 0.584, "rating": 6.8171, "minutes": 88.73, "total_pass": 64.7445, "accurate_pass": 55.6142, "duels_won": 4.001, "total_long_balls": 7.3702, "accurate_long_balls": 1.67, "total_own_half_passes": 40.6882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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"RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lewie Coyle", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2132, "tackles": 1.6188, "tackles_won": 1.0181, "clearances": 5.1975, "aerial_won": 1.4857, "total_shots": 0.584, "rating": 6.8171, "minutes": 88.73, "total_pass": 64.7445, "accurate_pass": 55.6142, "duels_won": 4.001, "total_long_balls": 7.3702, "accurate_long_balls": 1.67, "total_own_half_passes": 40.6882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2512, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3631, "crosses_total": 0.1814, "crosses_accurate": 0.0297, "touches": 80.7335, "possession_lost": 10.4143, "dispossessed": 0.1568, "duels_lost": 3.1958, 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1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0353, "expected_assists": 0.3242, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1041, "combined_rank_score": 471.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 277.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.069, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 665.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116363 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.069045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063918 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.045923 } ], "others_margin": -0.000832 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.287572979927063, "model_output": 1.2876, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2536 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1437 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0328 } ], "others": -0.0699, "total": 1.2876, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.25361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143704 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043014 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.040474 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.032764 } ], "others_margin": -0.069972 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.198553562164307, "model_output": 7.1986, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1095 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1022 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0051, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1777, "assists": 0.11, "assist_rate": 0.11, "expected_goals": 0.0917, "goals": 0.1031, "goal_rate": 0.1031, "shots_on_target": 0.3986, "total_shots": 1.2942, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7467, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 0.0981, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.802, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, 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"total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 0.0981, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.5546, "big_chances_missed": 0.1366, "xgot": 0.0712, "ball_carries": 22.3735, "total_progression": 90.0618, "progressive_carries": 2.3207, "shots_off_target": 0.8955 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9111, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.7467, "after": 3.7308 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4164, "after": 0.4267 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2942, "after": 1.2851 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1777, "assists": 0.1088, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "expected_goals": 0.0917, "goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.102, "shots_on_target": 0.3943, "total_shots": 1.2898, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 0.0981, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.5546, "big_chances_missed": 0.1366, "xgot": 0.0712, "ball_carries": 22.3735, "total_progression": 90.0618, "progressive_carries": 2.3207, "shots_off_target": 0.8955 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1777, "assists": 0.1088, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "expected_goals": 0.0858, "goals": 0.0955, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "shots_on_target": 0.369, "total_shots": 1.207, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.5546, "big_chances_missed": 0.1278, "xgot": 0.0666, "ball_carries": 22.3735, "total_progression": 90.0618, "progressive_carries": 2.3207, "shots_off_target": 0.838, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Herrington", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Herrington", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Herrington", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "skill_edge": -0.0037, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.649, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lucas Herrington", "market_value": 16399999, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.649 } ], "xg_override": 0.0858 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0981, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2898, "after": 1.207 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8955, "after": 0.838 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3943, "after": 0.369 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1366, "after": 0.1278 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.102, "after": 0.0955 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0917, "after": 0.0858 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1777, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.369, "total_shots": 1.207, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.5546, "big_chances_missed": 0.1278, "xgot": 0.0666, "ball_carries": 22.3735, "total_progression": 90.0618, "progressive_carries": 2.3207, "shots_off_target": 0.838, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Herrington", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Herrington", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3502, xG scale 0.9643, xA scale 1.0725, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1906, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.369, "total_shots": 1.207, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.5546, "big_chances_missed": 0.1278, "xgot": 0.0642, "ball_carries": 22.3735, "total_progression": 90.0618, "progressive_carries": 2.3207, "shots_off_target": 0.838, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Herrington", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Herrington", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0714, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3502, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7891, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1777, "after": 0.1906 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1906, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.369, "total_shots": 1.207, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1906, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.369, "total_shots": 1.207, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.5546, "big_chances_missed": 0.1278, "xgot": 0.0642, "ball_carries": 22.3735, "total_progression": 90.0618, "progressive_carries": 2.3207, "shots_off_target": 0.838, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Herrington", "opponent_faced": "Lucas Herrington", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0794, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0714, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "scorer_weight": 0.0886, "squad_weight_total": 1.373, "weight_share": 0.0645, "finishing_factor": 1.0714, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.3952, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3952, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1858 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9839, "expected_assists": 0.1906, "assist_rate": 0.1088, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.369, "total_shots": 1.207, "rating": 7.1986, "minutes": 82.0, "total_pass": 54.1192, "accurate_pass": 47.9885, "duels_won": 2.2955, "total_long_balls": 3.9311, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.903, "crosses_total": 3.7308, "crosses_accurate": 1.5202, "touches": 67.8934, "possession_lost": 11.7912, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.1587, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.15, "interceptions": 0.4267, "tackles_won": 0.8032, "tackles": 1.1082, "clearances": 0.5601, "total_contest": 1.3687, "won_contest": 0.6409, "challenges_lost": 0.2537, "fouls": 0.3236, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.0576, "big_chances_created": 0.5546, "big_chances_missed": 0.1278, "xgot": 0.0642, "ball_carries": 22.3735, "total_progression": 90.0618, "progressive_carries": 2.3207, "shots_off_target": 0.838, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucas Herrington", "opponent_faced": "Lucas 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"expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4025 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1837 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0778 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0749 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.071 } ], "others": 0.1515, "total": 1.9569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.402546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.183682 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.077779 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.070998 } ], "others_margin": 0.151455 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8862786293029785, "model_output": 6.8863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.8863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.035151 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032408 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030922 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011641 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01011 } ], "others_margin": -0.001883 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1068, "expected_assists": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0764, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "expected_goals": 0.1789, "goals": 0.1805, "goal_rate": 0.1805, "shots_on_target": 0.7512, "total_shots": 1.976, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 76.8, "total_pass": 25.4886, "accurate_pass": 21.1151, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 1.0082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.419, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7167, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3983, "crosses_total": 0.647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.1021, "possession_lost": 8.6696, "dispossessed": 0.7283, "duels_lost": 3.6672, "aerial_won": 0.1567, "aerial_lost": 0.5701, "interceptions": 0.1898, "tackles_won": 0.5359, "tackles": 0.9549, "clearances": 0.4576, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0.419, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7167, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3983, "crosses_total": 0.647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.1021, "possession_lost": 8.6696, "dispossessed": 0.7283, "duels_lost": 3.6672, "aerial_won": 0.1567, "aerial_lost": 0.5701, "interceptions": 0.1898, "tackles_won": 0.5359, "tackles": 0.9549, "clearances": 0.4576, "total_contest": 2.2766, "won_contest": 0.9712, "challenges_lost": 0.4622, "fouls": 0.7905, "fouls_drawn": 1.3951, "blocks": 0.1892, "big_chances_created": 0.4264, "big_chances_missed": 0.269, "xgot": 0.2348, "ball_carries": 15.5727, "total_progression": 71.7451, "progressive_carries": 3.6248, "shots_off_target": 1.2248 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1068, "expected_assists": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0764, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "expected_goals": 0.1913, "goals": 0.193, "goal_rate": 0.193, "shots_on_target": 0.8032, "total_shots": 2.1128, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 76.8, "total_pass": 25.4886, "accurate_pass": 21.1151, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 1.0082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.419, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7167, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3983, "crosses_total": 0.647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.1021, "possession_lost": 8.6696, "dispossessed": 0.7283, "duels_lost": 3.6672, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5701, "interceptions": 0.1898, "tackles_won": 0.5359, "tackles": 0.9549, "clearances": 0.4576, "total_contest": 2.2766, "won_contest": 0.9712, "challenges_lost": 0.4622, "fouls": 0.7905, "fouls_drawn": 1.3951, "blocks": 0.1892, "big_chances_created": 0.4264, "big_chances_missed": 0.2876, "xgot": 0.251, "ball_carries": 15.5727, "total_progression": 71.7451, "progressive_carries": 3.6248, "shots_off_target": 1.3096, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0692, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tim Iroegbunam", "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0692, "skill_edge": 0.0871, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.7964, "defender_skill": 0.6029, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tim Iroegbunam", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.6029 } ], "xg_override": 0.1913 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1567, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.976, "after": 2.1128 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2248, "after": 1.3096 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7512, "after": 0.8032 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.269, "after": 0.2876 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2348, "after": 0.251 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1805, "after": 0.193 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1789, "after": 0.1913 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1068, "expected_assists": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1913, "goal_rate": 0.193, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8032, "total_shots": 2.1128, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 76.8, "total_pass": 25.4886, "accurate_pass": 21.1151, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 1.0082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.419, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7167, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3983, "crosses_total": 0.647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.1021, "possession_lost": 8.6696, "dispossessed": 0.7283, "duels_lost": 3.6672, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5701, "interceptions": 0.1898, "tackles_won": 0.5359, "tackles": 0.9549, "clearances": 0.4576, "total_contest": 2.2766, "won_contest": 0.9712, "challenges_lost": 0.4622, "fouls": 0.7905, "fouls_drawn": 1.3951, "blocks": 0.1892, "big_chances_created": 0.4264, "big_chances_missed": 0.2876, "xgot": 0.251, "ball_carries": 15.5727, "total_progression": 71.7451, "progressive_carries": 3.6248, "shots_off_target": 1.3096, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0692, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tim Iroegbunam", "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3502, xG scale 0.9643, xA scale 1.0725, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1068, "expected_assists": 0.123, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1845, "goal_rate": 0.193, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8032, "total_shots": 2.1128, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 76.8, "total_pass": 25.4886, "accurate_pass": 21.1151, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 1.0082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.419, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7167, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3983, "crosses_total": 0.647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.1021, "possession_lost": 8.6696, "dispossessed": 0.7283, "duels_lost": 3.6672, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5701, "interceptions": 0.1898, "tackles_won": 0.5359, "tackles": 0.9549, "clearances": 0.4576, "total_contest": 2.2766, "won_contest": 0.9712, "challenges_lost": 0.4622, "fouls": 0.7905, "fouls_drawn": 1.3951, "blocks": 0.1892, "big_chances_created": 0.4264, "big_chances_missed": 0.2876, "xgot": 0.242, "ball_carries": 15.5727, "total_progression": 71.7451, "progressive_carries": 3.6248, "shots_off_target": 1.3096, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0692, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tim Iroegbunam", "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.007, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3502, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7891, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1913, "after": 0.1845 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1147, "after": 0.123 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1068, "expected_assists": 0.123, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1845, "goal_rate": 0.193, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8032, "total_shots": 2.1128, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 76.8, "total_pass": 25.4886, "accurate_pass": 21.1151, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 1.0082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.419, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7167, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3983, "crosses_total": 0.647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.1021, "possession_lost": 8.6696, "dispossessed": 0.7283, "duels_lost": 3.6672, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5701, "interceptions": 0.1898, "tackles_won": 0.5359, "tackles": 0.9549, "clearances": 0.4576, "total_contest": 2.2766, "won_contest": 0.9712, "challenges_lost": 0.4622, "fouls": 0.7905, "fouls_drawn": 1.3951, "blocks": 0.1892, 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official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1068, "expected_assists": 0.123, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1845, "goal_rate": 0.193, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8032, "total_shots": 2.1128, "rating": 6.8863, "minutes": 76.8, "total_pass": 25.4886, "accurate_pass": 21.1151, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 1.0082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.419, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7167, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3983, "crosses_total": 0.647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.1021, "possession_lost": 8.6696, "dispossessed": 0.7283, "duels_lost": 3.6672, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5701, "interceptions": 0.1898, "tackles_won": 0.5359, "tackles": 0.9549, 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0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.186 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1073 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.107 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0775 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0341 } ], "others": 0.0382, "total": 1.2235, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.243946 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.117609 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10497 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.069726 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.029207 } ], "others_margin": 0.031692 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.897953510284424, "model_output": 6.898, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1543, "goals": 0.1538, "goal_rate": 0.1538, "shots_on_target": 0.4711, "total_shots": 1.1841, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "key_pass": 1.2336, "rating": 6.898, "minutes": 71.37, "total_pass": 22.5752, "accurate_pass": 18.8427, "duels_won": 4.0821, "total_long_balls": 0.4325, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0261, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.193, "crosses_total": 2.2444, "crosses_accurate": 0.5887, "touches": 37.8228, "possession_lost": 9.8451, "dispossessed": 1.1042, "duels_lost": 3.9102, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "total_contest": 2.461, "won_contest": 0.8994, "ball_recovery": 2.8925, "challenges_lost": 0.476, "fouls": 0.2579, "fouls_drawn": 1.3899, "assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.012, "interceptions": 0.7556, "tackles_won": 0.4512, "tackles": 1.4902, "clearances": 0.0374, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1343, "big_chances_missed": 0.1895, "xgot": 0.0517, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4284, "total_progression": 43.7766, "progressive_carries": 2.3819, "shots_off_target": 0.713 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1543, "goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.1523, "shots_on_target": 0.4666, "total_shots": 1.1728, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "key_pass": 1.2336, "rating": 6.898, "minutes": 71.37, "total_pass": 22.5752, "accurate_pass": 18.8427, "duels_won": 4.0821, "total_long_balls": 0.4325, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0261, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.193, "crosses_total": 2.2432, 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0.1895, "xgot": 0.0517, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4284, "total_progression": 43.7766, "progressive_carries": 2.3819, "shots_off_target": 0.713 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1561, "goals": 0.1541, "goal_rate": 0.1541, "shots_on_target": 0.472, "total_shots": 1.1933, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "key_pass": 1.2336, "rating": 6.898, "minutes": 71.37, "total_pass": 22.5752, "accurate_pass": 18.8427, "duels_won": 4.0821, "total_long_balls": 0.4325, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0261, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.193, "crosses_total": 2.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.5887, "touches": 37.8228, "possession_lost": 9.8451, "dispossessed": 1.1042, "duels_lost": 3.9102, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "total_contest": 2.461, "won_contest": 0.8994, "ball_recovery": 2.8925, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5476 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1159 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0727 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0412 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.6454, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.506847 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.150399 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.132203 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110031 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.060878 } ], "others_margin": -0.017655 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8644931316375732, "model_output": 0.8645, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.274 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0205 } ], "others": 0.0553, "total": 0.8645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.273969 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05692 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.050182 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.031239 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015809 } ], "others_margin": -0.063665 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0057, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9983, "tackles": 1.7145, "tackles_won": 1.1266, "clearances": 1.996, "aerial_won": 0.6491, "total_shots": 0.8694, "rating": 6.734, "minutes": 86.45, "total_pass": 31.0253, "accurate_pass": 23.9096, "duels_won": 2.8463, "total_long_balls": 2.8616, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1633, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5011, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.862, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4085, "crosses_total": 2.5736, "crosses_accurate": 0.5945, "touches": 56.1571, "possession_lost": 15.0114, "dispossessed": 0.6076, "duels_lost": 3.9502, "aerial_lost": 0.8991, "total_contest": 1.3261, "won_contest": 0.3631, "ball_recovery": 3.992, "challenges_lost": 0.4452, "fouls": 1.0539, "fouls_drawn": 0.0559, "blocks": 0.0896, "goals": 0.3343, 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"team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -2.0688 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.156 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0689 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.03 } ], "others": -0.0911, "total": 0.9557, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.922971 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.121419 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058711 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.056108 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.028232 } ], "others_margin": -0.09122 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.239881232380867, "model_output": 0.2399, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8467 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1342 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0946, "total": 0.2399, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.953923 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.291699 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.068781 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.06608 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.035025 } ], "others_margin": -0.332239 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19258546829223633, "model_output": 0.1926, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2777 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 0.1926, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.27765 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024974 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013318 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009153 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.008024 } ], "others_margin": -0.043685 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.735108852386475, "model_output": 6.7351, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 6.7351, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016619 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012195 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010292 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009591 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008813 } ], "others_margin": -0.016472 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3987, "tackles": 0.8001, "tackles_won": 0.4731, "clearances": 0.9631, "aerial_won": 0.2417, "total_shots": 0.1941, "rating": 6.7351, "minutes": 15.28, "total_pass": 10.0099, "accurate_pass": 8.381, "duels_won": 0.1963, "total_long_balls": 1.5217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8114, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1999, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1812, "crosses_total": 1.9969, "crosses_accurate": 0.3088, "touches": 16.1426, "possession_lost": 4.558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.48, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3926, "won_contest": 0.1963, "ball_recovery": 0.9413, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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15.3052, "possession_lost": 4.3216, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4551, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3722, "won_contest": 0.1861, "ball_recovery": 0.8925, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7855, "total_progression": 21.7212, "progressive_carries": 0.5527, "key_pass": 0.3534, "shots_off_target": 0.184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3742, "tackles": 0.7586, "tackles_won": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.9131, "aerial_won": 0.2292, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7351, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 9.4906, "accurate_pass": 7.9462, "duels_won": 0.1861, "total_long_balls": 1.4428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7693, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0339, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9124, "crosses_total": 1.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.2928, "touches": 15.3052, "possession_lost": 4.3216, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4551, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3722, "won_contest": 0.1861, "ball_recovery": 0.8925, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7855, "total_progression": 21.7212, "progressive_carries": 0.5527, "key_pass": 0.3534, "shots_off_target": 0.184, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.236, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.2216, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 56, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024016, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 65, "clearances": 10, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1034, "combined_rank_score": 462.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 68.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 856.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8295, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joachim Andersen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking": 1032 }, { "player_name": "Shota Gvazava", "ranking": 1033 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 1035 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Elanga", "ranking": 1036 }, { "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking": 1037 }, { "player_name": "Rustam Nartazhiev", "ranking": 1038 }, { "player_name": "Christian Bravo", "ranking": 1039 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.377468600761329, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.233, "market_value_adjustment": 1.005, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (36 historical appearances) to 14.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4712, "tackles": 0.5113, "tackles_won": 0.2979, "clearances": 2.1714, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.2206, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.2051, "accurate_pass": 52.171, "duels_won": 4.1414, "total_long_balls": 8.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8068, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4513, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.5305, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6405, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0442, 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"Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 52.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.4, "aerialWon": 2.5324, "totalClearance_p90": 10.2193, "totalTackle": 1.1287, "defensive_actions": 2.1602 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.47115659713745117, "model_output": 0.4712, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4689 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0281, "total": 0.4712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.786669 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.066686 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.058579 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.029739 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.027099 } ], "others_margin": 0.061287 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5113186240196228, "model_output": 0.5113, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7357 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0595, "total": 0.5113, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.752285 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.047449 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036559 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.028048 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.02657 } ], "others_margin": -0.110236 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.2978917360305786, "model_output": 0.2979, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4431 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0483, "total": 0.2979, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.731379 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.059986 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.05326 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.032436 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.026363 } ], "others_margin": -0.149971 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.171427011489868, "model_output": 2.1714, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1063 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3754 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1609 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1017 } ], "others": 0.1101, "total": 2.1714, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.950837 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.249227 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.090346 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050735 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05061 } ], "others_margin": 0.051946 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9296824336051941, "model_output": 0.9297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8198 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2042 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0388 } ], "others": 0.0244, "total": 0.9297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.904444 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.312053 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.0669 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.062017 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.043774 } ], "others_margin": 0.026653 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22055229544639587, "model_output": 0.2206, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2363 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0305, "total": 0.2206, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.236278 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.027934 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023742 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.010443 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.006731 } ], "others_margin": -0.030653 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.829489231109619, "model_output": 6.8295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.016 } ], "others": 0.0253, "total": 6.8295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054038 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022131 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019062 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.016259 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.015974 } ], "others_margin": 0.025397 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4735, "tackles": 0.5139, "tackles_won": 0.2994, "clearances": 2.1823, "aerial_won": 0.9343, "total_shots": 0.2217, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.5061, "accurate_pass": 52.4319, "duels_won": 4.1621, "total_long_balls": 8.255, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8258, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.7032, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "crosses_total": 0.2138, "crosses_accurate": 0.0444, "touches": 72.0959, "possession_lost": 8.7703, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 2.1112, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0537, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 2.9207, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7938, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.414, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.0744, "big_chances_created": 0.0205, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 19.4522, "total_progression": 67.4058, "progressive_carries": 0.8904, "key_pass": 0.4802, "shots_off_target": 0.1473 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4719, "tackles": 0.5139, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "clearances": 2.1823, "aerial_won": 0.9343, "total_shots": 0.2205, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.5061, "accurate_pass": 52.4319, "duels_won": 4.1621, "total_long_balls": 8.255, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8258, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.7032, 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0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0192, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 18.2435, "total_progression": 63.2175, "progressive_carries": 0.8351, "key_pass": 0.4504, "shots_off_target": 0.1381, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.38, "projection_minutes": 15.33, "minutes_scale": 0.9379, "appearance_probability": 0.233 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4426, "tackles": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.2793, "clearances": 2.0467, "aerial_won": 0.8762, "total_shots": 0.2075, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 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0.8762, "total_shots": 0.2075, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0416, "touches": 67.6162, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0504, "won_contest": 0.0302, "ball_recovery": 2.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7431, "fouls_drawn": 0.4245, "blocks": 0.3883, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0192, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 18.2435, "total_progression": 63.2175, "progressive_carries": 0.8351, "key_pass": 0.4504, "shots_off_target": 0.1381, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.233, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4426, "tackles": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.2793, "clearances": 2.0467, "aerial_won": 0.8762, "total_shots": 0.2075, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0416, "touches": 67.6162, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0504, "won_contest": 0.0302, "ball_recovery": 2.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7431, "fouls_drawn": 0.4245, "blocks": 0.3883, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, 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"season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3138, "combined_rank_score": 1104.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1511.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6493, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Larsson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 3134 }, { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 3135 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking": 3136 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Di Lollo", "ranking": 3137 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kasper Dolberg", "ranking": 3139 }, { "player_name": "Matt Grimes", "ranking": 3140 }, { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 }, { "player_name": "David Brooks", "ranking": 3142 }, { "player_name": "André Silva", "ranking": 3143 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3869 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2052 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0245 } ], "others": -0.0449, "total": 0.3213, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.386919 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205194 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034378 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027319 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.024453 } ], "others_margin": -0.044837 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.649253845214844, "model_output": 6.6493, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1445 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.173, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.586125 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.145899 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.107199 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.047887 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029229 } ], "others_margin": -0.0268 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.466560423374176, "model_output": 0.4666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1626 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0621 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0568, "total": 0.4666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.40803 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.162594 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062119 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.01892 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017461 } ], "others_margin": -0.056849 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664703369140625, "model_output": 6.6647, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0743 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 6.6647, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074289 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.031336 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007853 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.00772 } ], "others_margin": -0.029723 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.614)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3125, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "shots_on_target": 0.1736, "total_shots": 0.4683, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 17.72, "total_pass": 10.163, "accurate_pass": 9.1469, "duels_won": 0.5451, "total_long_balls": 0.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3664, "crosses_total": 0.0574, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7102, "possession_lost": 2.2441, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.3831, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2164, "tackles_won": 0.234, "tackles": 0.3326, "clearances": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.3496, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1677, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0842, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 3.1499, "total_progression": 3.6104, "progressive_carries": 0.1977, "shots_off_target": 0.2947 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18300000, "quality_factor": 0.614, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0009)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3125, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "total_shots": 0.469, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 17.72, "total_pass": 10.163, "accurate_pass": 9.1469, "duels_won": 0.5451, "total_long_balls": 0.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1125, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3664, "crosses_total": 0.0573, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7102, "possession_lost": 2.2441, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.3831, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2162, "tackles_won": 0.2338, "tackles": 0.3326, "clearances": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.3496, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1675, "fouls_drawn": 0.0589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0842, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 3.1499, "total_progression": 3.6104, "progressive_carries": 0.1977, "shots_off_target": 0.2947 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1969, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 18.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3254, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.1805, "total_shots": 0.4883, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0258, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.45, "projection_minutes": 17.72, "minutes_scale": 1.0412, "appearance_probability": 0.706 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3254, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.1805, "total_shots": 0.4883, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0258, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3254, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1805, "total_shots": 0.4883, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0258, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3502, xG scale 0.9643, xA scale 1.0725, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3254, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1805, "total_shots": 0.4883, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0176, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.912, "creation_factor": 1.1113 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3502, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7891, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.706 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0511, "after": 0.0348 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0273, "after": 0.0207 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3254, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1805, "total_shots": 0.4883, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1599, "challenges_lost": 0.0823, "fouls": 0.1744, "fouls_drawn": 0.0613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0877, "xgot": 0.0176, "ball_carries": 3.2797, "total_progression": 3.7591, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.912, "creation_factor": 1.1113, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3121, "fifa_rank": 1419.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3254, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1805, "total_shots": 0.4883, "rating": 6.6647, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 10.5817, "accurate_pass": 9.5237, "duels_won": 0.5676, "total_long_balls": 0.2568, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1171, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4127, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6287, "crosses_total": 0.0597, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.275, "possession_lost": 2.3365, "dispossessed": 0.544, "duels_lost": 1.4401, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3931, "interceptions": 0.2251, "tackles_won": 0.2434, "tackles": 0.3463, "clearances": 0.0857, 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0.077416 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.033914 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.031625 } ], "others_margin": 0.008465 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03475955128669739, "model_output": 0.0348, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 0.0348, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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"contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.3833, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.430742 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057215 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.051658 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.039457 } ], "others_margin": -0.019101 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.632810592651367, "model_output": 6.6328, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0568 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "touches", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0906, "shots_on_target": 0.3133, "total_shots": 0.8721, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.3861, "rating": 6.6328, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1202, "touches": 14.8821, "possession_lost": 5.1266, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.5533, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.5991, "won_contest": 0.6949, "ball_recovery": 1.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.4464, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.1754, "tackles_won": 0.3472, "tackles": 0.7667, "clearances": 0.163, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.016, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1185, "offsides": 0.0878, "ball_carries": 4.4168, "total_progression": 32.0413, "progressive_carries": 1.0519, "shots_off_target": 0.5588 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0018)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.0904, "shots_on_target": 0.3127, "total_shots": 0.8705, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.3861, "rating": 6.6328, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9694, 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0.0548, "goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.2841, "total_shots": 0.7918, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.3508, "rating": 6.6328, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5077, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.97, "projection_minutes": 20.88, "minutes_scale": 0.9085, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goals": 0.0821, "goal_rate": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.2841, "total_shots": 0.7918, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.3508, "rating": 6.6328, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, 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"accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5077, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8582 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3502, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7891, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0548, "after": 0.0391 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0318, "after": 0.0252 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1386, "goal_rate": 0.1386, "shots_on_target": 0.2752, "total_shots": 0.8666, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2164, "rating": 6.6083, "minutes": 16.51, "total_pass": 3.1175, "accurate_pass": 1.5231, "duels_won": 2.9795, "total_long_balls": 0.0804, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0321, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0874, "crosses_total": 0.0523, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.5564, "possession_lost": 3.3104, "dispossessed": 0.2076, "duels_lost": 2.1992, "aerial_lost": 1.6045, "total_contest": 0.1696, "won_contest": 0.0523, "ball_recovery": 0.1378, "challenges_lost": 0.0615, "fouls": 0.2082, "fouls_drawn": 0.3281, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1339, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2464, "creation_factor": 0.8741 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3502, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7891, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9643, "xa_scale": 1.0725, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.736 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1026, "after": 0.0728 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3121, "combined_rank_score": 1081.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 744.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6676, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1626 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0621 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0568, "total": 0.4666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.40803 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.162594 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062119 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.01892 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017461 } ], "others_margin": -0.056849 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664703369140625, "model_output": 6.6647, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0743 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 6.6647, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074289 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.031336 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007853 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.00772 } ], "others_margin": -0.029723 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2484, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5272, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1056, "xa_scale": 1.2822, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0921, "after": 0.1018 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0971, "after": 0.1245 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.2745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.141852 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133412 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051653 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043034 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04278 } ], "others_margin": -0.025108 } }, { 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0.9163, "after": 0.8802 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8818, "after": 0.8471 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9701, "after": 0.9873 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.081, "after": 0.0963 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2376, "after": 1.2258 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2748, "after": 0.264 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.871, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "assists": 0.0963, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "expected_goals": 0.0816, "goals": 0.0576, "goal_rate": 0.0576, "shots_on_target": 0.264, "total_shots": 0.871, "rating": 6.8152, "minutes": 84.45, "total_pass": 27.5027, "accurate_pass": 22.3716, "duels_won": 4.2005, "total_long_balls": 2.4643, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2684, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9666, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.405, "crosses_total": 0.8615, 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{ "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9491, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.264, "after": 0.2226 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0816, "after": 0.0688 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0576, "after": 0.0486 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.871, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.7345, "rating": 6.8152, "minutes": 84.45, "total_pass": 27.5027, "accurate_pass": 22.3716, "duels_won": 4.2005, "total_long_balls": 2.4643, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2684, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9666, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.405, "crosses_total": 0.8615, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 0.9407, xG scale 1.1056, xA scale 1.2822, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.871, "expected_assists": 0.0957, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0761, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.7345, "rating": 6.8152, "minutes": 84.45, "total_pass": 27.5027, "accurate_pass": 22.3716, "duels_won": 4.2005, "total_long_balls": 2.4643, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2684, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9666, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.405, "crosses_total": 0.8615, "crosses_accurate": 0.3881, "touches": 37.3704, "possession_lost": 7.4078, "dispossessed": 0.4378, "duels_lost": 2.6017, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2329, "interceptions": 0.8802, "tackles_won": 1.2258, "tackles": 2.2454, "clearances": 0.7481, "total_contest": 0.5272, "won_contest": 0.5272, "challenges_lost": 0.9611, "fouls": 0.9873, "fouls_drawn": 0.4784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2812, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 8.8801, "total_progression": 26.1388, "progressive_carries": 0.2551, "shots_off_target": 0.5119, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8433, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ryan Sessegnon", "opponent_faced": "Ryan Sessegnon", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.83, "creation_factor": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2068 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": 0.051, "total": 0.9125, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.2678 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059064 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.046817 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045502 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.036345 } ], "others_margin": 0.05749 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.936121940612793, "model_output": 6.9361, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0818 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": -0.0352, "total": 6.9361, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.081784 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.044403 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.030898 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.024748 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022487 } ], "others_margin": -0.035201 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.602)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2648, "goals": 0.3453, "goal_rate": 0.3453, "shots_on_target": 0.806, "total_shots": 2.3231, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "key_pass": 0.9245, "rating": 6.9361, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 16.6183, "accurate_pass": 12.0677, "duels_won": 5.3398, "total_long_balls": 2.4074, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1461, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0176, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8823, "crosses_total": 2.4416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.8025, "possession_lost": 12.3192, "dispossessed": 0.1678, "duels_lost": 5.2786, "aerial_lost": 0.6132, "total_contest": 2.6844, "won_contest": 1.357, "ball_recovery": 2.8302, "challenges_lost": 1.6654, "fouls": 1.5048, "fouls_drawn": 0.1427, "assists": 0.4409, "assist_rate": 0.4409, "interceptions": 1.6625, 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7.8823, "crosses_total": 2.4416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.8025, "possession_lost": 12.3192, "dispossessed": 0.1678, "duels_lost": 5.2786, "aerial_lost": 0.6132, "total_contest": 2.6844, "won_contest": 1.357, "ball_recovery": 2.8302, "challenges_lost": 1.6654, "fouls": 1.5048, "fouls_drawn": 0.1427, "assists": 0.4409, "assist_rate": 0.4409, "interceptions": 1.6625, "tackles_won": 1.6926, "tackles": 3.3696, "clearances": 0.5078, "blocks": 0.34, "big_chances_created": 0.1678, "big_chances_missed": 0.2732, "xgot": 0.3127, "offsides": 0.1974, "ball_carries": 8.6367, "total_progression": 52.8755, "progressive_carries": 1.9596, "shots_off_target": 1.5171 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2441, "goals": 0.3183, "goal_rate": 0.3183, "shots_on_target": 0.7429, "total_shots": 2.1412, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0094, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.747, "tackles": 1.1899, "tackles_won": 0.8099, "clearances": 2.2123, "aerial_won": 0.6744, "total_shots": 0.4366, "rating": 6.584, "minutes": 84.9, "total_pass": 19.4658, "accurate_pass": 15.9435, "duels_won": 1.9463, "total_long_balls": 2.0037, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5625, "total_own_half_passes": 7.9675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7337, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2097, "crosses_total": 8.4791, "crosses_accurate": 1.8453, "touches": 40.1285, "possession_lost": 13.8258, "dispossessed": 0.1756, "duels_lost": 1.5569, "aerial_lost": 0.4778, "total_contest": 0.7118, "won_contest": 0.2986, "ball_recovery": 3.0988, "challenges_lost": 0.2835, "fouls": 0.2066, "fouls_drawn": 0.1756, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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"Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7267, "tackles": 1.217, "tackles_won": 0.8339, "clearances": 3.346, "aerial_won": 1.5312, "total_shots": 0.369, "rating": 6.6236, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 19.5841, "accurate_pass": 17.6909, "duels_won": 1.4451, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2732, "total_own_half_passes": 10.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.119, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5718, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.9436, "possession_lost": 2.1664, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4469, "aerial_lost": 0.9762, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5637, "challenges_lost": 0.2732, "fouls": 0.1944, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.4707, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.117821 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043795 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041019 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010674 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010505 } ], "others_margin": -0.063542 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.586593151092529, "model_output": 6.5866, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 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], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.645, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9908, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Hull City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Hull City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1114, "tackles": 1.293, "tackles_won": 0.8508, "clearances": 5.857, "aerial_won": 1.9772, "total_shots": 0.5287, "rating": 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"trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.8888, "aerialWon": 1.4721, "totalClearance_p90": 5.9203, "totalTackle": 1.4337, "defensive_actions": 2.5697 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1113542318344116, "model_output": 1.1114, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.11 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0994 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 1.1114, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0231 } ], "others": -0.0517, "total": 0.8508, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131603 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.044556 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.034623 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.027962 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.025235 } ], "others_margin": -0.059042 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.857003211975098, "model_output": 5.857, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.8322 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.6129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.2816 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2957 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1622 } ], "others": 0.2397, "total": 5.857, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.217073 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134284 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05613 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.055724 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.029299 } ], "others_margin": 0.041772 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.9772160053253174, "model_output": 1.9772, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1693 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1545 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1452 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1402 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1094 } ], "others": 0.1717, "total": 1.9772, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115939 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.095225 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.089214 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.086291 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.062524 } ], "others_margin": 0.090791 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5287235975265503, "model_output": 0.5287, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1125 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0607, "total": 0.5287, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.112534 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047777 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017033 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.014278 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.01406 } ], "others_margin": -0.060717 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.67076301574707, "model_output": 6.6708, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 6.6708, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.04745 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.022801 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01849 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015045 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015044 } ], "others_margin": 0.004891 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1011, "tackles": 1.2811, "tackles_won": 0.843, "clearances": 5.8031, "aerial_won": 1.959, "total_shots": 0.5239, "rating": 6.6708, "minutes": 88.16, "total_pass": 23.3057, "accurate_pass": 18.9181, "duels_won": 2.8791, "total_long_balls": 2.729, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5601, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.569, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3491, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.1002, "possession_lost": 5.6032, "dispossessed": 0.3631, "duels_lost": 3.2108, "aerial_lost": 2.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3031, "challenges_lost": 0.1724, "fouls": 0.4913, "fouls_drawn": 0.1245, "blocks": 1.1442, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.004, "ball_carries": 6.9881, "total_progression": 30.4118, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2386, "shots_off_target": 0.321 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0963, "tackles": 1.2811, "tackles_won": 0.8291, "clearances": 5.8031, "aerial_won": 1.959, "total_shots": 0.5033, "rating": 6.6708, "minutes": 88.16, "total_pass": 23.3057, "accurate_pass": 18.9181, "duels_won": 2.8791, "total_long_balls": 2.729, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5601, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.569, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3491, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.1002, "possession_lost": 5.6032, "dispossessed": 0.3631, "duels_lost": 3.2108, "aerial_lost": 2.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3031, "challenges_lost": 0.1724, "fouls": 0.472, "fouls_drawn": 0.1389, "blocks": 1.1442, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.1948, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.004, "ball_carries": 6.9881, "total_progression": 30.4118, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2386, "shots_off_target": 0.321 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0394, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9796, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5239, "after": 0.5033 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4913, "after": 0.472 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1245, "after": 0.1389 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.843, "after": 0.8291 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2028, "after": 0.1948 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0963, "tackles": 1.2811, "tackles_won": 0.8291, "clearances": 5.8031, "aerial_won": 1.959, "total_shots": 0.5158, "rating": 6.6708, "minutes": 88.16, "total_pass": 23.3057, "accurate_pass": 18.9181, "duels_won": 2.8791, "total_long_balls": 2.729, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5601, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.569, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3491, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.1002, "possession_lost": 5.6032, "dispossessed": 0.3631, "duels_lost": 3.2108, "aerial_lost": 2.1838, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3031, "challenges_lost": 0.1724, "fouls": 0.472, "fouls_drawn": 0.1389, "blocks": 1.1442, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "shots_on_target": 0.1948, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.004, "ball_carries": 6.9881, "total_progression": 30.4118, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2386, "shots_off_target": 0.321 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0963, "tackles": 1.2811, "tackles_won": 0.8291, "clearances": 5.8031, "aerial_won": 1.959, "total_shots": 0.5158, "rating": 6.6708, "minutes": 88.16, "total_pass": 23.3057, "accurate_pass": 18.9181, "duels_won": 2.8791, "total_long_balls": 2.729, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5601, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.569, 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-0.014238 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.013977 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010045 } ], "others_margin": -0.051637 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.777427673339844, "model_output": 6.7774, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0087, "total": 6.7774, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.017576 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016588 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014572 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013192 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.010787 } ], "others_margin": 0.008712 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4046, "tackles": 0.5141, "tackles_won": 0.3168, "clearances": 2.4649, "aerial_won": 0.8494, "total_shots": 0.3068, "rating": 6.7774, "minutes": 22.92, "total_pass": 29.5372, "accurate_pass": 24.1195, "duels_won": 2.9618, "total_long_balls": 5.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0401, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3786, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9162, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2032, "crosses_total": 0.139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.352, "possession_lost": 6.0825, "dispossessed": 0.1415, "duels_lost": 2.8283, "aerial_lost": 1.2988, "total_contest": 0.0156, "won_contest": 0.0137, "ball_recovery": 2.0978, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 1.1825, "fouls_drawn": 0.3623, "blocks": 1.2489, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "shots_on_target": 0.3068, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "xgot": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 9.8095, "total_progression": 30.0225, "progressive_carries": 0.3298, "key_pass": 0.0512, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4012, "tackles": 0.5141, "tackles_won": 0.3158, "clearances": 2.4649, "aerial_won": 0.8494, "total_shots": 0.3074, "rating": 6.7774, "minutes": 22.92, "total_pass": 29.5372, "accurate_pass": 24.1195, "duels_won": 2.9618, "total_long_balls": 5.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0401, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3786, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9162, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2032, "crosses_total": 0.1378, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.352, "possession_lost": 6.0825, "dispossessed": 0.1415, "duels_lost": 2.8283, "aerial_lost": 1.2988, "total_contest": 0.0156, "won_contest": 0.0137, "ball_recovery": 2.0978, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 1.1743, "fouls_drawn": 0.3593, "blocks": 1.2489, "goals": 0.1103, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.081, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "xgot": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 9.8095, "total_progression": 30.0225, "progressive_carries": 0.3298, "key_pass": 0.0512, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2547, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1825, "after": 1.1743 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.9 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3225, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "clearances": 1.5462, "aerial_won": 0.5328, "total_shots": 0.1928, "rating": 6.7774, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 18.5284, "accurate_pass": 15.1299, "duels_won": 1.8579, "total_long_balls": 3.4932, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2797, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7833, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8659, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.745, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2639, "crosses_total": 0.0864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.1942, "possession_lost": 3.8155, "dispossessed": 0.1415, "duels_lost": 1.7742, "aerial_lost": 1.2988, "total_contest": 0.0098, "won_contest": 0.0086, "ball_recovery": 1.3159, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 0.7366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2254, "blocks": 0.7834, "goals": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0508, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "shots_on_target": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.0231, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 6.1534, "total_progression": 18.8328, "progressive_carries": 0.2069, "key_pass": 0.0321, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.38, "projection_minutes": 22.92, "minutes_scale": 0.6273, "appearance_probability": 0.233 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3225, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "clearances": 1.5462, "aerial_won": 0.5328, "total_shots": 0.1928, "rating": 6.7774, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 18.5284, "accurate_pass": 15.1299, "duels_won": 1.8579, "total_long_balls": 3.4932, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2797, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7833, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8659, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.745, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2639, "crosses_total": 0.0864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.1942, "possession_lost": 3.8155, "dispossessed": 0.1415, "duels_lost": 1.7742, "aerial_lost": 1.2988, "total_contest": 0.0098, "won_contest": 0.0086, "ball_recovery": 1.3159, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 0.7366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2254, "blocks": 0.7834, "goals": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0508, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "shots_on_target": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.0231, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 6.1534, "total_progression": 18.8328, "progressive_carries": 0.2069, "key_pass": 0.0321, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3225, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "clearances": 1.5462, "aerial_won": 0.5328, "total_shots": 0.1928, "rating": 6.7774, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 18.5284, "accurate_pass": 15.1299, "duels_won": 1.8579, "total_long_balls": 3.4932, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2797, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7833, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8659, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.745, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2639, "crosses_total": 0.0864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.1942, "possession_lost": 3.8155, "dispossessed": 0.1415, "duels_lost": 1.7742, "aerial_lost": 1.2988, "total_contest": 0.0098, "won_contest": 0.0086, "ball_recovery": 1.3159, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 0.7366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2254, "blocks": 0.7834, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0508, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "shots_on_target": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.0231, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 6.1534, "total_progression": 18.8328, "progressive_carries": 0.2069, "key_pass": 0.0321, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.233, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3225, "tackles_won": 0.1981, "clearances": 1.5462, "aerial_won": 0.5328, "total_shots": 0.1928, "rating": 6.7774, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 18.5284, "accurate_pass": 15.1299, "duels_won": 1.8579, "total_long_balls": 3.4932, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2797, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7833, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8659, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.745, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2639, "crosses_total": 0.0864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.1942, "possession_lost": 3.8155, "dispossessed": 0.1415, "duels_lost": 1.7742, "aerial_lost": 1.2988, "total_contest": 0.0098, "won_contest": 0.0086, "ball_recovery": 1.3159, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 0.7366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2254, "blocks": 0.7834, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0508, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "shots_on_target": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.0231, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 6.1534, "total_progression": 18.8328, "progressive_carries": 0.2069, "key_pass": 0.0321, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3293, "fifa_rank": 2419.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Charlie Hughes": { "player_id": 1138398, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 185, "market_value": 9100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.0169, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0062, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.312, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.87, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3431, "combined_rank_score": 1424.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2693.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Charlie Hughes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ilia Gruev", "ranking": 3426 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Hickey", "ranking": 3427 }, { "player_name": "Joaquin Seys", "ranking": 3428 }, { "player_name": "Julián Araujo", "ranking": 3429 }, { "player_name": "Emil Forsberg", "ranking": 3430 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Wilson Isidor", "ranking": 3432 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Rodríguez", "ranking": 3433 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Manning", "ranking": 3434 }, { "player_name": "Sebastiaan Bornauw", "ranking": 3435 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Melgarejo", "ranking": 3436 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.86683638124688, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3121289264203127, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5118, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€9,100,000) scaled to 13.9 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.51)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles": 2.4, "tackles_won": 1.5, "clearances": 2.7, "aerial_won": 2.3, "duels_won": 5.6, "total_pass": 44.0, "accurate_pass": 35.0, "expected_goals": 0.018, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 6.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0, "crosses_total": 0.9, "crosses_accurate": 0.4, "touches": 60.0, "possession_lost": 6.6, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 3.5, "aerial_lost": 2.0, "total_contest": 4.0, "won_contest": 2.3, "ball_recovery": 5.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7, "blocks": 0.7, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.051, "total_shots": 0.4, "shots_on_target": 0.15, "shots_off_target": 0.2, "big_chances_created": 0.04, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.6, "ball_carries": 20.0, "total_progression": 61.0, "progressive_carries": 5.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9100000, "quality_factor": 0.5118 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 13.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2465, "tackles": 0.3698, "tackles_won": 0.2311, "clearances": 0.416, "aerial_won": 0.3544, "duels_won": 0.8628, "total_pass": 6.7793, "accurate_pass": 5.3927, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 13.87, "total_long_balls": 0.9245, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4622, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3141, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5437, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5408, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0785, "crosses_total": 0.1387, "crosses_accurate": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3634, "expected_assists": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.0542, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0605, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2414, "total_shots": 0.6231, "rating": 6.6397, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 185, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6079, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 4.4168, "dispossessed": 0.5736, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 26.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2262, "total_shots": 0.52, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.2712, "rating": 6.6079, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 3.9825, "accurate_pass": 2.9329, "duels_won": 0.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5938, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.933, "crosses_total": 0.3304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.0389, "possession_lost": 2.8834, "dispossessed": 0.5617, "duels_lost": 1.173, "aerial_lost": 0.3304, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6113, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 0.6113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 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"margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.465004 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086581 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07499 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.062833 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.055472 } ], "others_margin": -0.164683 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.607868194580078, "model_output": 6.6079, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.108, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3465, "total_shots": 0.7967, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.4153, "rating": 6.6079, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 6.1004, "accurate_pass": 4.4926, "duels_won": 0.9365, "total_long_balls": 0.5061, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4928, "crosses_total": 0.5061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7822, "possession_lost": 4.4168, "dispossessed": 0.5736, "duels_lost": 1.7969, "aerial_lost": 0.3374, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9365, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4304, "fouls_drawn": 0.9365, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6079, "total_progression": 7.88, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 0.9407, xG scale 1.1056, xA scale 1.2822, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3465, "total_shots": 0.7967, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.4153, "rating": 6.6079, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 6.1004, "accurate_pass": 4.4926, "duels_won": 0.9365, "total_long_balls": 0.5061, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4928, "crosses_total": 0.5061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7822, "possession_lost": 4.4168, "dispossessed": 0.5736, "duels_lost": 1.7969, "aerial_lost": 0.3374, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9365, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4304, "fouls_drawn": 0.9365, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6079, "total_progression": 7.88, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9468, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5272, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1056, "xa_scale": 1.2822, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.108, "after": 0.0706 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0328, "after": 0.0249 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0996, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3465, "total_shots": 0.7967, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.4153, "rating": 6.6079, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 6.1004, "accurate_pass": 4.4926, "duels_won": 0.9365, "total_long_balls": 0.5061, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4928, "crosses_total": 0.5061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7822, "possession_lost": 4.4168, "dispossessed": 0.5736, "duels_lost": 1.7969, "aerial_lost": 0.3374, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9365, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4304, "fouls_drawn": 0.9365, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2, "assists": 0.16, "assist_rate": 0.16, "expected_assists": 0.181, "expected_goals": 0.116, "total_shots": 1.7, "total_pass": 60.0, "accurate_pass": 49.0, "ball_recovery": 6.3, "duels_won": 7.3, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 5.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0, "crosses_total": 1.7, "crosses_accurate": 0.8, "touches": 74.0, "possession_lost": 9.8, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9, "aerial_won": 1.5, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 1.3, "tackles_won": 1.7, "tackles": 2.3, "clearances": 1.0, "total_contest": 4.7, "won_contest": 2.7, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "goals": 0.09, "goal_rate": 0.09, "shots_on_target": 0.7, "shots_off_target": 0.6, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.13, "big_chances_missed": 0.07, "xgot": 0.079, "ball_carries": 36.0, "total_progression": 95.0, "progressive_carries": 8.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goals": 0.023, "goal_rate": 0.023, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.96, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.2551, "appearance_probability": 0.543 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goals": 0.023, "goal_rate": 0.023, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 0.9407, xG scale 1.1056, xA scale 1.2822, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0121, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "creation_factor": 0.9439 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5272, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1056, "xa_scale": 1.2822, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.543 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0296, "after": 0.0178 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0462, "after": 0.0322 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0121, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "creation_factor": 0.9439, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4143, "fifa_rank": 3554.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0121, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0175, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "creation_factor": 0.9439, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.023, "scorer_weight": 0.0163, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0149, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "appearance_weight": 0.543, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.3371, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3371, "runner_up": "Oli McBurnie", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2312 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0121, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0175, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0313, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "creation_factor": 0.9439, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "provider_weight": 0.0304, "squad_weight_total": 0.7667, "weight_share": 0.0396, "creation_factor": 0.9439, "appearance_weight": 0.543, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sorba Thomas", "weight": 0.1556, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1556, "runner_up": "Ryan Giles", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1146, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mohamed Belloumi" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.68, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 285, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.74, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alex Iwobi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Lucas Herrington" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.594, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0858, "xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Herrington", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16399999, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Iwobi (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucas Herrington in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Josh King", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "xg_contribution": 0.1913, "xg_multiplier": 1.0692, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tim Iroegbunam", "role": "CM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.533 } ], "duel_analysis": "Josh King (CAM) is slightly favored against Tim Iroegbunam in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.516, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.253, "xg_contribution": 0.3764, "xg_multiplier": 1.0775, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Herrington", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16399999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.747 }, { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.747 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is slightly favored against Lucas Herrington and Semi Ajayi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.376 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Oscar Bobb", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.516, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.208, "xg_contribution": 0.1561, "xg_multiplier": 1.0116, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Herrington", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16399999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.792 }, { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.792 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oscar Bobb (ST) is evenly matched against Lucas Herrington and Semi Ajayi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mohamed Belloumi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.602, "defenders": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2441, "xg_multiplier": 0.9217, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belloumi (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Timothy Castagne and Calvin Bassey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.244 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oli McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2282, "xg_multiplier": 0.9151, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oli McBurnie (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Timothy Castagne and Calvin Bassey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.228 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sorba Thomas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0921, "xg_multiplier": 0.9503, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sorba Thomas (ST) is evenly matched against Timothy Castagne and Calvin Bassey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Regan Slater", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 9200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.513, "defenders": [ "Ryan Sessegnon" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "xg_contribution": 0.0688, "xg_multiplier": 0.8433, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Sessegnon", "role": "RB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 } ], "duel_analysis": "Regan Slater (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ryan Sessegnon in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Giles", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Ryan Sessegnon", "Bernd Leno" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.555, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "xg_contribution": 0.0022, "xg_multiplier": 0.9825, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Sessegnon", "role": "RB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.712 }, { "player": "Bernd Leno", "role": "GK", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.712 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Giles (LWB) is evenly matched against Ryan Sessegnon and Bernd Leno in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewie Coyle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alex Iwobi", "David Affengruber" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.626, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0184, "xg_multiplier": 0.7933, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Iwobi", "role": "LW", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "LB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewie Coyle (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Iwobi and David Affengruber in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €20M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.018 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tim Iroegbunam", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Shea Charles" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0508, "xg_multiplier": 0.8919, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Shea Charles", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tim Iroegbunam (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Shea Charles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.72, "away_midfield_power": 0.524, "home_creative_power": 0.639, "away_creative_power": 0.436, "home_defensive_power": 0.606, "away_defensive_power": 0.554, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.579, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alex Iwobi", "Josh King", "Shea Charles", "Sander Berge" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Regan Slater", "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Josh King vs Tim Iroegbunam", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.022, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.971 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.302, "away_lambda": 1.04, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Alex Iwobi": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Lewie Coyle", "Regan Slater" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Josh King": { "opponents": [ "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Semi Ajayi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Semi Ajayi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Timothy Castagne": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oli McBurnie", "Sorba Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oli McBurnie", "Sorba Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Sessegnon": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater", "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Affengruber": { "opponents": [ "Lewie Coyle" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Shea Charles": { "opponents": [ "Tim Iroegbunam", "Regan Slater" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Lucas Herrington": { "opponents": [ "Alex Iwobi", "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tim Iroegbunam": { "opponents": [ "Josh King", "Shea Charles", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Semi Ajayi": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mohamed Belloumi": { "opponents": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Calvin Bassey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oli McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Calvin Bassey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sorba Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Calvin Bassey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Regan Slater": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Sessegnon", "Shea Charles", "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Sessegnon", "Bernd Leno" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewie Coyle": { "opponents": [ "Alex Iwobi", "David Affengruber" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "John Egan": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Josh King vs Tim Iroegbunam). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0101, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.143, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9805, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9462, "home_midfield_factor": 1.022, "away_midfield_factor": 0.971, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.669, "away_avg_quality": 0.5247, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1443, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.8635, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6526, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.9176, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2587, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1423, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0828, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8096, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0209 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.022, "result": 1.0434 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 1.033 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1879 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9078, "result": 1.0784 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 1.0 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9805, "result": 0.9805 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0101, "result": 0.9906 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9906, "result": 0.9906, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2587, "factor": 1.1423, "pre": 0.9906, "result": 1.1315 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1315 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1999, "result": 1.3319 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.0345, "result": 1.2748 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2748, "result": 1.275, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.275, "result": 1.3023, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.302 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.302 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.302, "result": 1.302, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.302 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7046, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8909 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.971, "result": 0.8651 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.8738 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8738 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0103, "result": 0.8828 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.998, "result": 0.881 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9462, "result": 0.8336 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.143, "result": 0.9766 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9766, "result": 0.9766, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2587, "factor": 0.9172, "pre": 0.9766, "result": 0.8957 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8957 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1743, "result": 1.0703 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.0345, "result": 1.0634 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0634, "result": 1.063, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.063, "result": 1.0403, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.04 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.04 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.04, "result": 1.04, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.04 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1999, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1743, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Fulham", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.034, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.034, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.302, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.04, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2748, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0634, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.302, "final_away_lambda": 1.04 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9078, "attack_index": 0.893, "defense_concede_index": 0.893, "form_multiplier": 0.968, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.32, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.32, "team_ppg": 0.84, "opponent_ppg": 1.42 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0103, "attack_index": 0.968, "defense_concede_index": 1.043, "form_multiplier": 1.032, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.54, "team_ppg": 1.42, "opponent_ppg": 0.84 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Fulham vs Hull. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.275, Away 1.063). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.302, Away 1.040 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 7, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Fulham", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.034, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.034, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.302, "away_lambda": 1.04, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.275, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.063 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:30:59Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }