{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man City", "away_team": "Ipswich", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-1", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0813, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "3-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0813, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0303, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1364, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0813 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0792 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0691 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0674 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0626 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0144, "0-1": 0.0165, "0-2": 0.0098, "0-3": 0.0039, "0-4": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0435, "1-1": 0.0517, "1-2": 0.0303, "1-3": 0.0119, "1-4": 0.0035, "1-5": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0674, "2-1": 0.0792, "2-2": 0.0466, "2-3": 0.0183, "2-4": 0.0054, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0691, "3-1": 0.0813, "3-2": 0.0478, "3-3": 0.0187, "3-4": 0.0055, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0532, "4-1": 0.0626, "4-2": 0.0368, "4-3": 0.0144, "4-4": 0.0042, "4-5": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0328, "5-1": 0.0385, "5-2": 0.0227, "5-3": 0.0089, "5-4": 0.0026, "5-5": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0168, "6-1": 0.0198, "6-2": 0.0116, "6-3": 0.0046, "6-4": 0.0013, "7-0": 0.0074, "7-1": 0.0087, "7-2": 0.0051, "7-3": 0.002, "7-4": 0.0006, "8-0": 0.0028, "8-1": 0.0033, "8-2": 0.002, "8-3": 0.0008, "9-0": 0.001, "9-1": 0.0011, "9-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7517, "draw": 0.1364, "away_win": 0.1119 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7967, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2033, "btts_yes": 0.6599, "btts_no": 0.3401, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3085, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0461 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.9, "MCR": 7.17, "ATR": 6.98, "GK": 6.91 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 6.93 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man City vs Ipswich. Most likely scoreline: 3-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Man City 6W-1D-3L vs Ipswich over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Erling Haaland (2), Rayan Cherki, Leif Davis", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Rayan Cherki vs Julio Enciso). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.24, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 3.079, "away_lambda": 1.176, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 6, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": "3-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0813, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7517, "draw": 0.1364, "away_win": 0.1119 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7517, "fair_spread": 1.903, "fair_total": 4.255, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 3.079, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.176, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7967, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6599, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3085, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0461, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 1.0677, "probability": 0.6562, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Leif Davis (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.2585, "probability": 0.2278, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Rayan Cherki (Man City)", "estimate": 0.3944, "probability": 0.3259, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1455, "probability": 0.1354, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.255, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 927, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.0, "possession_home_pct": 52.2, "possession_away_pct": 47.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7517, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.90 goals and fair total 4.25.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Leif Davis, Issa Diop in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (2), Rayan Cherki; bench watchlist: Jérémy Doku, Tijjani Reijnders.", "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through Leif Davis; bench watchlist: Jack Clarke, Zian Flemming, Florentino Luís.", "Assist usage should flow through Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, Julio Enciso; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 2.13 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man City": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Erling Haaland": { "player_id": 839956, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 195, "market_value": 240000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.0677, "goal_rate": 0.7813, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_shots": 4, "expected_assists": 0.1087, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0144, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 6.6902, "dispossessed": 0.7119, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.681, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2015, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.6562, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.103, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3995, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0873, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8665, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0642, "expected_assists": 0.4759, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6641, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7433, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2337, "expected_assists": 0.5618, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.093, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5237, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.097, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3, "combined_rank_score": 10.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 17.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2125, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0144, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.886)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1353, "goals": 0.2355, "goal_rate": 0.2355, "shots_on_target": 0.7364, "total_shots": 1.7572, "expected_assists": 0.1746, "key_pass": 1.7859, "rating": 7.1489, "minutes": 84.91, "total_pass": 30.2914, "accurate_pass": 26.8729, "duels_won": 3.0576, "total_long_balls": 0.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0948, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1686, "crosses_total": 2.3368, "crosses_accurate": 0.3807, "touches": 47.5819, "possession_lost": 12.169, "dispossessed": 1.6179, "duels_lost": 6.1123, "aerial_lost": 0.6449, "total_contest": 3.4186, "won_contest": 1.184, "ball_recovery": 2.6359, "challenges_lost": 0.5001, "fouls": 1.2688, "fouls_drawn": 0.6306, "assists": 0.3108, "assist_rate": 0.3108, "interceptions": 0.2937, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0904 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0857, "total": 7.275, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.149501 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.090412 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.047831 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025751 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022667 } ], "others_margin": 0.085801 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0134, quality 0.898)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.2149, "assists": 0.2098, "assist_rate": 0.2098, "expected_goals": 0.2111, "goals": 0.3062, "goal_rate": 0.3062, "shots_on_target": 0.8554, "total_shots": 2.8867, "rating": 7.275, "minutes": 77.61, "total_pass": 60.5238, "accurate_pass": 54.3359, "duels_won": 3.504, "total_long_balls": 3.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4755, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7737, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.5622, "crosses_total": 2.5118, "crosses_accurate": 0.9385, "touches": 77.8159, "possession_lost": 12.2791, "dispossessed": 1.2624, "duels_lost": 4.0503, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2672, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.3773, "tackles": 0.821, "clearances": 0.3794, "total_contest": 3.1003, "won_contest": 1.641, "challenges_lost": 0.3421, "fouls": 0.8003, "fouls_drawn": 1.0422, "blocks": 0.0136, "big_chances_created": 0.4154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0503, "xgot": 0.4325, "ball_carries": 28.4215, "total_progression": 102.0139, "progressive_carries": 3.8761, "shots_off_target": 2.0313 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 120000000, "quality_factor": 0.8975, "boost_factor": 1.0134, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0059)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.2149, "assists": 0.2171, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "expected_goals": 0.2111, "goals": 0.3129, "goal_rate": 0.3129, "shots_on_target": 0.863, "total_shots": 2.8823, "rating": 7.275, "minutes": 77.61, "total_pass": 60.5238, "accurate_pass": 54.3359, "duels_won": 3.504, "total_long_balls": 3.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4755, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7737, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.5622, "crosses_total": 2.5224, "crosses_accurate": 0.9385, "touches": 77.8159, "possession_lost": 12.2791, "dispossessed": 1.2624, "duels_lost": 4.0503, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2672, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.3751, "tackles": 0.821, "clearances": 0.3794, "total_contest": 3.1003, "won_contest": 1.641, "challenges_lost": 0.3421, "fouls": 0.8126, "fouls_drawn": 1.036, "blocks": 0.0136, "big_chances_created": 0.4154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0503, "xgot": 0.4325, "ball_carries": 28.4215, "total_progression": 102.0139, "progressive_carries": 3.8761, "shots_off_target": 2.0313 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0059, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8623, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8003, "after": 0.8126 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.5118, "after": 2.5224 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8554, "after": 0.863 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2098, "after": 0.2171 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3062, "after": 0.3129 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0422, "after": 1.036 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.2149, "assists": 0.2171, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "expected_goals": 0.2111, "goals": 0.3129, "goal_rate": 0.3129, "shots_on_target": 0.863, "total_shots": 2.8943, "rating": 7.275, "minutes": 77.61, "total_pass": 60.5238, "accurate_pass": 54.3359, "duels_won": 3.504, "total_long_balls": 3.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4755, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7737, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.5622, "crosses_total": 2.5224, "crosses_accurate": 0.9385, "touches": 77.8159, "possession_lost": 12.2791, "dispossessed": 1.2624, "duels_lost": 4.0503, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2672, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.3751, "tackles": 0.821, "clearances": 0.3794, "total_contest": 3.1003, "won_contest": 1.641, "challenges_lost": 0.3421, "fouls": 0.8126, "fouls_drawn": 1.036, "blocks": 0.0136, "big_chances_created": 0.4154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0503, "xgot": 0.4325, "ball_carries": 28.4215, "total_progression": 102.0139, "progressive_carries": 3.8761, "shots_off_target": 2.0313 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.2149, "assists": 0.2171, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "expected_goals": 0.2537, "goals": 0.3761, "goal_rate": 0.3761, "shots_on_target": 1.0373, "total_shots": 3.4789, 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"crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.202, "skill_edge": 0.1974, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.8975, "defender_skill": 0.4588, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Christian Walton", "market_value": 2600000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.4588 } ], "xg_override": 0.2537 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.8943, "after": 3.4789 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 2.0313, "after": 2.4416 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.863, "after": 1.0373 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4325, "after": 0.5199 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3129, "after": 0.3761 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2111, "after": 0.2537 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0503, "after": 0.0605 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.2149, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2537, "goal_rate": 0.3761, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0373, "total_shots": 3.4789, "rating": 7.275, "minutes": 77.61, "total_pass": 60.5238, "accurate_pass": 54.3359, "duels_won": 3.504, "total_long_balls": 3.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4755, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7737, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.5622, "crosses_total": 2.5224, "crosses_accurate": 0.9385, "touches": 77.8159, "possession_lost": 12.2791, "dispossessed": 1.2624, "duels_lost": 4.0503, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2672, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.3751, "tackles": 0.821, "clearances": 0.3794, "total_contest": 3.1003, "won_contest": 1.641, "challenges_lost": 0.3421, "fouls": 0.8126, "fouls_drawn": 1.036, "blocks": 0.0136, "big_chances_created": 0.4154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0605, "xgot": 0.5199, "ball_carries": 28.4215, "total_progression": 102.0139, "progressive_carries": 3.8761, "shots_off_target": 2.4416, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.202, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.08 (squad xG sum 1.6774, xG scale 1.8356, xA scale 1.8356, team xA 2.27 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.3944, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4657, "goal_rate": 0.3761, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0373, "total_shots": 3.4789, "rating": 7.275, "minutes": 77.61, "total_pass": 60.5238, "accurate_pass": 54.3359, "duels_won": 3.504, "total_long_balls": 3.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4755, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7737, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.5622, "crosses_total": 2.5224, "crosses_accurate": 0.9385, "touches": 77.8159, "possession_lost": 12.2791, "dispossessed": 1.2624, "duels_lost": 4.0503, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2672, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.3751, "tackles": 0.821, "clearances": 0.3794, "total_contest": 3.1003, "won_contest": 1.641, "challenges_lost": 0.3421, "fouls": 0.8126, "fouls_drawn": 1.036, "blocks": 0.0136, "big_chances_created": 0.4154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0605, "xgot": 0.9543, "ball_carries": 28.4215, "total_progression": 102.0139, "progressive_carries": 3.8761, "shots_off_target": 2.4416, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.202, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0083 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2537, "after": 0.4657 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2149, "after": 0.3944 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.3944, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4657, "goal_rate": 0.3761, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0373, "total_shots": 3.4789, "rating": 7.275, "minutes": 77.61, "total_pass": 60.5238, "accurate_pass": 54.3359, "duels_won": 3.504, "total_long_balls": 3.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4755, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7737, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.5622, "crosses_total": 2.5224, "crosses_accurate": 0.9385, "touches": 77.8159, "possession_lost": 12.2791, "dispossessed": 1.2624, "duels_lost": 4.0503, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2672, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.3751, "tackles": 0.821, "clearances": 0.3794, "total_contest": 3.1003, "won_contest": 1.641, "challenges_lost": 0.3421, "fouls": 0.8126, "fouls_drawn": 1.036, "blocks": 0.0136, "big_chances_created": 0.4154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0605, "xgot": 0.9543, "ball_carries": 28.4215, "total_progression": 102.0139, "progressive_carries": 3.8761, "shots_off_target": 2.4416, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.202, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0083, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 49, "fifa_rank": 97.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4304, "expected_assists": 0.3944, "assist_rate": 0.2171, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4657, "goal_rate": 0.3761, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0373, "total_shots": 3.4789, "rating": 7.275, "minutes": 77.61, "total_pass": 60.5238, "accurate_pass": 54.3359, "duels_won": 3.504, "total_long_balls": 3.9017, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4755, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7737, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.5622, "crosses_total": 2.5224, "crosses_accurate": 0.9385, "touches": 77.8159, "possession_lost": 12.2791, "dispossessed": 1.2624, "duels_lost": 4.0503, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2672, "interceptions": 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"totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1882 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1436 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1096 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0349 } ], "others": 0.1015, "total": 1.2924, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.246504 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.154121 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10347 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.036275 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029711 } ], "others_margin": 0.08189 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.786097049713135, "model_output": 6.7861, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", 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0.9422, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130333 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.069157 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026065 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018068 } ], "others_margin": -0.085241 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.377109050750732, "model_output": 7.3771, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1838 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1245 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.05 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.896)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3547, "expected_assists": 0.1335, "assists": 0.1346, "assist_rate": 0.1346, "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.2344, "total_shots": 0.9535, "rating": 7.3771, "minutes": 85.96, "total_pass": 76.4181, "accurate_pass": 67.5675, "duels_won": 7.888, "total_long_balls": 5.4484, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.46, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.7479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.1075, "crosses_total": 2.69, "crosses_accurate": 0.799, "touches": 97.8972, "possession_lost": 13.8512, "dispossessed": 0.9446, "duels_lost": 5.4005, "aerial_won": 1.2771, "aerial_lost": 1.2201, "interceptions": 1.3127, "tackles_won": 1.3179, "tackles": 2.3459, "clearances": 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.878)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7992, "tackles": 1.7419, "tackles_won": 1.0335, "clearances": 1.8528, "aerial_won": 0.8379, "total_shots": 0.6904, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 41.6352, "accurate_pass": 36.0771, "duels_won": 4.0063, "total_long_balls": 1.9255, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9921, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8633, "crosses_total": 1.332, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 60.6737, "possession_lost": 11.0009, "dispossessed": 1.2313, "duels_lost": 5.8303, "aerial_lost": 1.4196, "total_contest": 1.9902, "won_contest": 1.0426, "ball_recovery": 3.8725, "challenges_lost": 0.7987, "fouls": 1.4332, "fouls_drawn": 0.4187, "blocks": 0.3626, "goals": 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16.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8633, "crosses_total": 1.3388, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 60.6737, "possession_lost": 11.0009, "dispossessed": 1.2313, "duels_lost": 5.8303, "aerial_lost": 1.4196, "total_contest": 1.9902, "won_contest": 1.0426, "ball_recovery": 3.8725, "challenges_lost": 0.7987, "fouls": 1.4302, "fouls_drawn": 0.4152, "blocks": 0.3626, "goals": 0.1168, "goal_rate": 0.1168, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "expected_goals": 0.2031, "expected_assists": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.4842, "big_chances_created": 0.0629, "xgot": 0.2262, "ball_carries": 15.5538, "total_progression": 70.457, "progressive_carries": 1.8077, "key_pass": 0.4976, "shots_off_target": 0.202 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0084, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9091, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.332, "after": 1.3388 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7992, "after": 0.7925 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7925, "tackles": 1.7419, "tackles_won": 1.0293, "clearances": 1.8528, "aerial_won": 0.8379, "total_shots": 0.6938, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 41.6352, "accurate_pass": 36.0771, "duels_won": 4.0063, "total_long_balls": 1.9255, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9921, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8633, "crosses_total": 1.3388, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 60.6737, "possession_lost": 11.0009, "dispossessed": 1.2313, "duels_lost": 5.8303, "aerial_lost": 1.4196, "total_contest": 1.9902, "won_contest": 1.0426, "ball_recovery": 3.8725, "challenges_lost": 0.7987, "fouls": 1.4302, "fouls_drawn": 0.4152, "blocks": 0.3626, "goals": 0.1168, "goal_rate": 0.1168, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "expected_goals": 0.2031, "expected_assists": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.4842, "big_chances_created": 0.0629, "xgot": 0.2262, "ball_carries": 15.5538, "total_progression": 70.457, "progressive_carries": 1.8077, "key_pass": 0.4976, "shots_off_target": 0.202 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7925, "tackles": 1.7419, "tackles_won": 1.0293, "clearances": 1.8528, "aerial_won": 0.8379, "total_shots": 0.6938, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 41.6352, "accurate_pass": 36.0771, "duels_won": 4.0063, "total_long_balls": 1.9255, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9921, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8633, 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Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7925, "tackles": 1.7419, "tackles_won": 1.0293, "clearances": 1.8528, "aerial_won": 0.8379, "total_shots": 0.6938, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 41.6352, "accurate_pass": 36.0771, "duels_won": 4.0063, "total_long_balls": 1.9255, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9921, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8633, "crosses_total": 1.3388, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 60.6737, "possession_lost": 11.0009, "dispossessed": 1.2313, "duels_lost": 5.8303, "aerial_lost": 1.4196, "total_contest": 1.9902, "won_contest": 1.0426, "ball_recovery": 3.8725, "challenges_lost": 0.7987, "fouls": 1.4302, "fouls_drawn": 0.4152, "blocks": 0.3626, "goal_rate": 0.1168, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2031, "expected_assists": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.4842, "big_chances_created": 0.0629, "xgot": 0.2262, "ball_carries": 15.5538, "total_progression": 70.457, "progressive_carries": 1.8077, "key_pass": 0.4976, "shots_off_target": 0.202, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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"creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2031, "after": 0.3728 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.111, "after": 0.2038 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_rank": 279.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7925, "tackles": 1.7419, "tackles_won": 1.0293, "clearances": 1.8528, "aerial_won": 0.8379, "total_shots": 0.6938, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 41.6352, "accurate_pass": 36.0771, "duels_won": 4.0063, "total_long_balls": 1.9255, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9921, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2139, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8633, "crosses_total": 1.3388, "crosses_accurate": 0.4184, "touches": 60.6737, "possession_lost": 11.0009, "dispossessed": 1.2313, "duels_lost": 5.8303, "aerial_lost": 1.4196, "total_contest": 1.9902, "won_contest": 1.0426, "ball_recovery": 3.8725, "challenges_lost": 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"team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3112, "goal_rate": 0.1168, "scorer_weight": 0.2982, "squad_weight_total": 3.6309, "weight_share": 0.0821, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3346, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5821 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.5821, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5821, "runner_up": "Erling Haaland", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5679 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5679, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { 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0.049185 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035562 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018745 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.017742 } ], "others_margin": 0.050314 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.881004333496094, "model_output": 6.881, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 6.881, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.048269 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029619 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.014593 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012853 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.010669 } ], "others_margin": 0.001636 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0188, quality 0.869)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9777, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9938, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.815, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3341, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6892, "fouls_drawn": 0.8222, "blocks": 0.5862, "goals": 0.1361, "goal_rate": 0.1361, "assists": 0.3157, "assist_rate": 0.3157, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.2528, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 20.665, "total_progression": 77.1773, "progressive_carries": 1.7002, "key_pass": 0.5223, "shots_off_target": 0.5622 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 69000000, "quality_factor": 0.8692, "boost_factor": 1.0188, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8109, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6939, "fouls_drawn": 0.8111, "blocks": 0.5862, "goals": 0.1412, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0.3184, "assist_rate": 0.3184, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 20.665, "total_progression": 77.1773, "progressive_carries": 1.7002, "key_pass": 0.5223, "shots_off_target": 0.5622 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0134, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9321, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8222, "after": 0.8111 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3341, "after": 0.3435 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9938, "after": 0.9874 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1361, "after": 0.1412 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8185, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6939, "fouls_drawn": 0.8111, "blocks": 0.5862, "goals": 0.1412, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0.3184, "assist_rate": 0.3184, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 20.665, "total_progression": 77.1773, "progressive_carries": 1.7002, "key_pass": 0.5223, "shots_off_target": 0.5622 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8185, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6939, "fouls_drawn": 0.8111, "blocks": 0.5862, "goals": 0.1412, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0.3184, "assist_rate": 0.3184, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 20.665, "total_progression": 77.1773, "progressive_carries": 1.7002, "key_pass": 0.5223, "shots_off_target": 0.5622, "opponent_faced": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8185, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6939, "fouls_drawn": 0.8111, "blocks": 0.5862, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3184, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 20.665, "total_progression": 77.1773, "progressive_carries": 1.7002, "key_pass": 0.5223, "shots_off_target": 0.5622, "opponent_faced": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.08 (squad xG sum 1.6774, xG scale 1.8356, xA scale 1.8356, team xA 2.27 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8185, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6939, "fouls_drawn": 0.8111, "blocks": 0.5862, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3184, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "expected_assists": 0.235, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.2603, "ball_carries": 20.665, "total_progression": 77.1773, "progressive_carries": 1.7002, "key_pass": 0.5223, "shots_off_target": 0.5622, "opponent_faced": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.065, "after": 0.1193 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.128, "after": 0.235 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8185, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6939, "fouls_drawn": 0.8111, "blocks": 0.5862, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3184, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "expected_assists": 0.235, 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appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8185, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, "dispossessed": 0.6082, "duels_lost": 3.8732, "aerial_lost": 2.2054, "total_contest": 0.716, "won_contest": 0.5524, "ball_recovery": 3.7156, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.6939, "fouls_drawn": 0.8111, "blocks": 0.5862, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3184, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "expected_assists": 0.235, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.2603, "ball_carries": 20.665, "total_progression": 77.1773, "progressive_carries": 1.7002, "key_pass": 0.5223, "shots_off_target": 0.5622, "opponent_faced": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "scorer_weight": 0.1491, "squad_weight_total": 3.6309, "weight_share": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3346, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5821 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.5821, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5821, "runner_up": "Erling Haaland", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5679 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5679, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9785, "tackles": 1.5519, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.8402, "aerial_won": 1.5718, "total_shots": 0.8185, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5351, "accurate_pass": 45.7099, "duels_won": 5.2648, "total_long_balls": 3.0503, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3145, "total_own_half_passes": 23.81, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3134, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.3965, "crosses_total": 0.3435, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4227, "possession_lost": 9.3552, 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"role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0413, "after": 0.0758 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0709, "after": 0.1301 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 4.7422, "save_contribution": 3.4568, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8769, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 16.5942, "passValueNormalized": 0.0523, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 18.4455 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.943664073944092, "model_output": 2.9437, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 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"name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.003, "total": 0.0152, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016915 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.016792 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015549 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01493 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.011992 } ], "others_margin": -0.002966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.912399768829346, "model_output": 6.9124, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0101, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9734, "goals_prevented": 0.0154, "rating": 6.9124, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5193, "accurate_pass": 19.6353, "total_long_balls": 12.5093, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7901, "touches": 37.9804, "clearances": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 7.3461, "high_claims": 1.361, "punches": 0.5863, "aerial_won": 0.4538, "sweeper_actions": 0.5881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3622, "saves_inside_box": 1.9921, "possession_lost": 8.1063, "duels_won": 0.8011, "duels_lost": 0.1424, "total_contest": 0.1554, "won_contest": 0.1554, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1919, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7619 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0101, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "saves": 2.964, "goals_prevented": 0.0154, "rating": 6.9124, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5193, "accurate_pass": 19.6353, "total_long_balls": 12.5093, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7901, "touches": 37.9804, "clearances": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 7.3461, "high_claims": 1.361, "punches": 0.5863, "aerial_won": 0.4538, "sweeper_actions": 0.5881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3622, "saves_inside_box": 1.9921, "possession_lost": 8.1063, "duels_won": 0.8011, "duels_lost": 0.1424, "total_contest": 0.1554, "won_contest": 0.1554, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1901, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7619 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9734, "after": 2.964 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.964, "goals_prevented": 0.0154, "rating": 6.9124, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5193, "accurate_pass": 19.6353, "total_long_balls": 12.5093, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7901, "touches": 37.9804, "clearances": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 7.3461, "high_claims": 1.361, "punches": 0.5863, "aerial_won": 0.4538, "sweeper_actions": 0.5881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3622, "saves_inside_box": 1.9921, "possession_lost": 8.1063, "duels_won": 0.8011, "duels_lost": 0.1424, "total_contest": 0.1554, "won_contest": 0.1554, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1901, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7619 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.964, "goals_prevented": 0.0154, "rating": 6.9124, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5193, "accurate_pass": 19.6353, "total_long_balls": 12.5093, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7901, "touches": 37.9804, "clearances": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 7.3461, "high_claims": 1.361, "punches": 0.5863, "aerial_won": 0.4538, "sweeper_actions": 0.5881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3622, "saves_inside_box": 1.9921, "possession_lost": 8.1063, "duels_won": 0.8011, "duels_lost": 0.1424, "total_contest": 0.1554, "won_contest": 0.1554, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1901, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7619, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3649, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.19, "high_pressure_saves": 1.09, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3649 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.964, "goals_prevented": 0.0154, "rating": 6.9124, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5193, "accurate_pass": 19.6353, "total_long_balls": 12.5093, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7901, "touches": 37.9804, "clearances": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 7.3461, "high_claims": 1.361, "punches": 0.5863, "aerial_won": 0.4538, "sweeper_actions": 0.5881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3622, "saves_inside_box": 1.9921, "possession_lost": 8.1063, "duels_won": 0.8011, "duels_lost": 0.1424, "total_contest": 0.1554, "won_contest": 0.1554, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1901, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7619, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3649, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.19, "high_pressure_saves": 1.09, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.08 (squad xG sum 1.6774, xG scale 1.8356, xA scale 1.8356, team xA 2.27 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.964, "goals_prevented": 0.0154, "rating": 6.9124, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5193, "accurate_pass": 19.6353, "total_long_balls": 12.5093, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7901, "touches": 37.9804, "clearances": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 7.3461, "high_claims": 1.361, "punches": 0.5863, "aerial_won": 0.4538, "sweeper_actions": 0.5881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3622, "saves_inside_box": 1.9921, "possession_lost": 8.1063, "duels_won": 0.8011, "duels_lost": 0.1424, "total_contest": 0.1554, "won_contest": 0.1554, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1901, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7619, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3649, "shots_faced": 11.2, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.0, "after": 11.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.19, "after": 2.74 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.09, "after": 0.94 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.964, "goals_prevented": 0.0154, "rating": 6.9124, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.5193, "accurate_pass": 19.6353, "total_long_balls": 12.5093, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7901, "touches": 37.9804, "clearances": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 7.3461, "high_claims": 1.361, "punches": 0.5863, "aerial_won": 0.4538, "sweeper_actions": 0.5881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3622, "saves_inside_box": 1.9921, "possession_lost": 8.1063, "duels_won": 0.8011, "duels_lost": 0.1424, "total_contest": 0.1554, "won_contest": 0.1554, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1901, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7619, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3649, "shots_faced": 11.2, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0727, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8262, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "assists": 0.0478, "assist_rate": 0.0478, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goals": 0.1047, "goal_rate": 0.1047, "shots_on_target": 0.1786, "total_shots": 0.7333, "rating": 6.8449, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 20.6294, "accurate_pass": 18.7947, "duels_won": 0.3544, "total_long_balls": 2.2611, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1352, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1552, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6394, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0667, "possession_lost": 1.8347, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.417, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3013, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8262, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "assists": 0.0477, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goals": 0.1044, "goal_rate": 0.1044, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "total_shots": 0.7328, "rating": 6.8449, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 20.6294, "accurate_pass": 18.7947, "duels_won": 0.3544, "total_long_balls": 2.2611, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1352, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1552, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6394, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0667, "possession_lost": 1.8347, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.417, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3265, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3544, "won_contest": 0.3544, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4159, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7088, 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"pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1628, "skill_edge": 0.0787, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.8969, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.0715 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7328, "after": 0.8521 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5547, "after": 0.645 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1781, "after": 0.2071 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1044, "after": 0.1214 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0615, "after": 0.0715 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8262, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2071, "total_shots": 0.8521, "rating": 6.8449, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 20.6294, "accurate_pass": 18.7947, "duels_won": 0.3544, "total_long_balls": 2.2611, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1352, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1552, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6394, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0667, "possession_lost": 1.8347, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.417, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3265, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3544, "won_contest": 0.3544, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4159, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, 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"description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8262, "expected_assists": 0.1107, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2071, "total_shots": 0.8521, "rating": 6.8449, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 20.6294, "accurate_pass": 18.7947, "duels_won": 0.3544, "total_long_balls": 2.2611, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1352, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1552, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6394, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0667, "possession_lost": 1.8347, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.417, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3265, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3544, "won_contest": 0.3544, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4159, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7088, "big_chances_created": 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8262, "expected_assists": 0.1107, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2071, "total_shots": 0.8521, "rating": 6.8449, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 20.6294, "accurate_pass": 18.7947, "duels_won": 0.3544, "total_long_balls": 2.2611, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1352, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1552, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6394, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0667, "possession_lost": 1.8347, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.417, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3265, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, 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"assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (41 historical appearances) to 15.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.3478, "tackles_won": 0.2652, "clearances": 1.8902, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 7.0615, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 78.6579, "accurate_pass": 73.4885, "duels_won": 4.9134, "total_long_balls": 3.5245, "accurate_long_balls": 1.996, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1881, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.5758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.3004, "crosses_total": 0.1835, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 90.9193, "possession_lost": 6.7656, "dispossessed": 0.4846, "duels_lost": 2.5774, "aerial_lost": 1.3891, "total_contest": 0.4949, "won_contest": 0.4815, "ball_recovery": 3.4299, "challenges_lost": 0.1701, "fouls": 0.6706, "fouls_drawn": 1.3299, "blocks": 0.6466, "goals": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.0907, "assists": 0.1645, "assist_rate": 0.1645, "expected_goals": 0.1047, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "shots_on_target": 0.1465, "big_chances_created": 0.0814, "xgot": 0.0495, "ball_carries": 29.6586, "total_progression": 109.1732, "progressive_carries": 1.1899, "key_pass": 0.6133, "shots_off_target": 0.3761 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.0251, "aerialWon": 2.4867, "totalClearance_p90": 4.0251, "totalTackle": 0.6154, "defensive_actions": 1.4014 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3793172538280487, "model_output": 0.3793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4589 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": 0.0038, "total": 0.3793, "log_link": true, 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"ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0246 } ], "others": -0.1209, "total": 0.3478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.794642 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.10574 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.069646 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.067035 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.051217 } ], "others_margin": -0.298366 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.2652437686920166, "model_output": 0.2652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4333 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0664, "total": 0.2652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.707914 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.082072 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.07233 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.045827 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.038063 } ], "others_margin": -0.223271 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8902409076690674, "model_output": 1.8902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0322 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2473 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0471 } ], "others": 0.0934, "total": 1.8902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.896521 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.162582 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.031237 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.028754 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.026585 } ], "others_margin": 0.050711 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4506173133850098, "model_output": 1.4506, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6747 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2524 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0988 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0805 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0709 } ], "others": 0.2454, "total": 1.4506, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.673114 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.306904 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.098436 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.073656 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.060621 } ], "others_margin": 0.185352 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5226317644119263, "model_output": 0.5226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.123 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 0.5226, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.123043 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.106959 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.02422 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.019443 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019272 } ], "others_margin": 0.039824 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.061537265777588, "model_output": 7.0615, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0369 } ], "others": 0.1362, "total": 7.0615, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070632 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.046116 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037221 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.036934 } ], "others_margin": 0.136181 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.872)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3839, "tackles": 0.3519, "tackles_won": 0.2684, "clearances": 1.9129, "aerial_won": 1.468, "total_shots": 0.5289, "rating": 7.0615, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 79.6018, "accurate_pass": 74.3704, "duels_won": 4.9724, "total_long_balls": 3.5668, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 41.5752, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6584, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.712, "crosses_total": 0.1857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0099, "touches": 92.0103, "possession_lost": 6.8468, "dispossessed": 0.4904, "duels_lost": 2.6083, "aerial_lost": 1.4058, "total_contest": 0.5008, "won_contest": 0.4873, "ball_recovery": 3.4711, "challenges_lost": 0.1721, "fouls": 0.6786, "fouls_drawn": 1.3459, "blocks": 0.6544, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "assists": 0.1665, "assist_rate": 0.1665, "expected_goals": 0.106, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.1483, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0501, "ball_carries": 30.0145, "total_progression": 110.4833, "progressive_carries": 1.2042, "key_pass": 0.6207, "shots_off_target": 0.3806 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 71000000, "quality_factor": 0.8721, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3831, "tackles": 0.3519, "tackles_won": 0.2696, "clearances": 1.9129, "aerial_won": 1.468, "total_shots": 0.5258, "rating": 7.0615, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 79.6018, "accurate_pass": 74.3704, "duels_won": 4.9724, "total_long_balls": 3.5668, "accurate_long_balls": 2.02, "total_own_half_passes": 41.5752, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6584, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.712, "crosses_total": 0.184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0099, "touches": 92.0103, "possession_lost": 6.8468, "dispossessed": 0.4904, "duels_lost": 2.6083, "aerial_lost": 1.4058, "total_contest": 0.5008, "won_contest": 0.4873, "ball_recovery": 3.4711, "challenges_lost": 0.1721, "fouls": 0.6741, "fouls_drawn": 1.336, "blocks": 0.6544, "goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.0919, "assists": 0.1649, "assist_rate": 0.1649, "expected_goals": 0.106, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.1478, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0501, "ball_carries": 30.0145, "total_progression": 110.4833, "progressive_carries": 1.2042, "key_pass": 0.6207, "shots_off_target": 0.3806 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3459, "after": 1.336 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 15.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.25)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3255, "tackles": 0.299, "tackles_won": 0.2291, "clearances": 1.6253, "aerial_won": 1.2473, "total_shots": 0.449, "rating": 7.0615, "minutes": 15.29, "total_pass": 67.6325, "accurate_pass": 63.1877, "duels_won": 4.2247, "total_long_balls": 3.0305, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7163, "total_own_half_passes": 35.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.6952, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.3088, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4925, "crosses_total": 0.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 78.1752, "possession_lost": 5.8173, "dispossessed": 0.4904, "duels_lost": 2.2161, "aerial_lost": 1.4058, "total_contest": 0.4255, "won_contest": 0.414, "ball_recovery": 2.9492, "challenges_lost": 0.1721, "fouls": 0.5727, "fouls_drawn": 1.1351, "blocks": 0.556, "goals": 0.0781, "goal_rate": 0.0781, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "expected_goals": 0.0901, "expected_assists": 0.04, "shots_on_target": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 25.5014, "total_progression": 93.8705, "progressive_carries": 1.0231, "key_pass": 0.5274, "shots_off_target": 0.3234, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.29, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8496, "appearance_probability": 0.252 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3255, "tackles": 0.299, "tackles_won": 0.2291, "clearances": 1.6253, "aerial_won": 1.2473, "total_shots": 0.449, "rating": 7.0615, "minutes": 15.29, "total_pass": 67.6325, "accurate_pass": 63.1877, "duels_won": 4.2247, "total_long_balls": 3.0305, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7163, "total_own_half_passes": 35.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.6952, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.3088, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4925, "crosses_total": 0.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 78.1752, "possession_lost": 5.8173, "dispossessed": 0.4904, "duels_lost": 2.2161, "aerial_lost": 1.4058, "total_contest": 0.4255, "won_contest": 0.414, "ball_recovery": 2.9492, "challenges_lost": 0.1721, "fouls": 0.5727, "fouls_drawn": 1.1351, "blocks": 0.556, "goals": 0.0781, "goal_rate": 0.0781, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "expected_goals": 0.0901, "expected_assists": 0.04, "shots_on_target": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.07, "xgot": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 25.5014, "total_progression": 93.8705, "progressive_carries": 1.0231, "key_pass": 0.5274, "shots_off_target": 0.3234, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { 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"contribution": -0.0447 } ], "others": -0.0858, "total": 0.7185, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.237371 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.055303 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.044742 } ], "others_margin": -0.085761 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.049692630767822, "model_output": 7.0497, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.145 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0911 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.581, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8338, "expected_assists": 0.0965, "assist_rate": 0.0779, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0568, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2295, "total_shots": 0.7059, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 55.9639, "accurate_pass": 48.3085, "duels_won": 3.9267, "total_long_balls": 3.6315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4385, "total_own_half_passes": 20.458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4866, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.822, "crosses_total": 3.3901, "crosses_accurate": 0.7649, "touches": 71.234, "possession_lost": 13.1132, "dispossessed": 0.9009, "duels_lost": 4.8535, "aerial_won": 0.832, "aerial_lost": 0.8824, "interceptions": 0.7279, "tackles_won": 0.5042, "tackles": 1.0135, "clearances": 0.6745, "total_contest": 1.0164, "won_contest": 0.4078, "challenges_lost": 1.5134, "fouls": 1.1543, "fouls_drawn": 1.6733, "blocks": 0.2135, "big_chances_created": 0.2104, "big_chances_missed": 0.1157, "xgot": 0.1304, "ball_carries": 19.3761, "total_progression": 75.0534, "progressive_carries": 1.741, "shots_off_target": 0.4763, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 176, "fifa_rank": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } } ] }, "Phil Foden": { 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0498, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 9.0, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.491905 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.056101 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.049545 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045736 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036757 } ], "others_margin": 0.055775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.796228885650635, "model_output": 6.7962, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0645 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0128, quality 0.864)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.877, "expected_assists": 0.1013, "assists": 0.1745, "assist_rate": 0.1745, "expected_goals": 0.089, "goals": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.0774, "shots_on_target": 0.2637, "total_shots": 0.7571, "rating": 6.7962, "minutes": 21.05, "total_pass": 11.7925, "accurate_pass": 10.567, "duels_won": 1.4907, "total_long_balls": 1.4565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1273, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9514, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6156, "crosses_total": 1.3382, "crosses_accurate": 0.3897, "touches": 18.3234, "possession_lost": 4.3281, "dispossessed": 0.7318, "duels_lost": 2.0013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4272, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2128, "tackles": 0.447, "clearances": 0.0, 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"weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 20.9267, "expectedGoals": 0.1007, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 16.676, "accuratePass": 19.8273, "totalShots": 1.72 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06823162734508514, "model_output": 0.0682, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0892 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { 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0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.661 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1008 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0948 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0783 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0605 } ], "others": 0.0499, "total": 1.0971, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.661041 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.100785 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.094821 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.078304 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.060462 } ], "others_margin": 0.049951 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1092967763543129, "model_output": 0.1093, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": 0.0376, "total": 0.1093, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377405 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.246775 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.095452 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.082229 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.064922 } ], "others_margin": 0.41985 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3099671602249146, "model_output": 1.31, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2421 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0976 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.108 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0977 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0676 } ], "others": 0.5078, "total": 1.31, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.44554 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.203998 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.185807 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.142733 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.088053 } ], "others_margin": 0.490413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2770867347717285, "model_output": 7.2771, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0655 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.051 } ], "others": 0.3481, "total": 7.2771, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.069908 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065509 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.054973 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.051627 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.051007 } ], "others_margin": 0.348079 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.0885, "shots_on_target": 0.3098, "total_shots": 1.1134, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "key_pass": 1.3294, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 23.06, "total_pass": 12.8566, "accurate_pass": 10.5875, "duels_won": 2.916, "total_long_balls": 0.3765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.99, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7681, "crosses_total": 0.9488, "crosses_accurate": 0.2209, "touches": 21.928, "possession_lost": 6.1811, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.2116, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 2.8007, "won_contest": 1.6899, "ball_recovery": 0.7873, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.2608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1021, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0873, "tackles_won": 0.124, "tackles": 0.124, "clearances": 0.1471, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3204, "big_chances_missed": 0.0527, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.3798, "total_progression": 91.1129, "progressive_carries": 5.026, "shots_off_target": 0.8035 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 70000000, "quality_factor": 0.8707, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.1037, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1398, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.01, "projection_minutes": 23.06, "minutes_scale": 1.1712, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.1037, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1398, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1398, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.08 (squad xG sum 1.6774, xG scale 1.8356, xA scale 1.8356, team xA 2.27 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.081, "after": 0.0947 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1299, "after": 0.1519 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 111, "fifa_rank": 204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "scorer_weight": 0.1111, "squad_weight_total": 3.6309, "weight_share": 0.0306, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3346, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5821 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.5821, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5821, "runner_up": "Erling Haaland", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5679 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5679, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1351, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1351, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.1215, "squad_weight_total": 2.3181, "weight_share": 0.0524, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3977 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3977, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3977, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } } ] }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "player_id": 893549, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0912, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5414, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1144, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023993, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "expected_assists": 0.1454, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025212, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025149, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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true }, { "match_id": 14025286, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "expected_assists": 0.2415, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 257, "combined_rank_score": 193.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 184.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2286, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7342, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tijjani Reijnders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Carvallo", "ranking": 252 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Mittelstädt", "ranking": 254 }, { "player_name": "Seong-Jin Kang", "ranking": 255 }, { "player_name": "Mujaid Sadick", "ranking": 256 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Vargas", "ranking": 258 }, { "player_name": "James Nicholas Delianov", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Scott McTominay", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Éder Militão", "ranking": 262 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2162 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0675 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0658 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0269 } ], "others": 0.0639, "total": 0.6266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.38726 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.137689 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118121 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.097258 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.048963 } ], "others_margin": 0.10769 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734193801879883, "model_output": 6.7342, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0407, "total": 6.7342, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07885 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018533 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.013047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011543 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.011428 } ], "others_margin": 0.040671 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0765, "goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.098, "shots_on_target": 0.4161, "total_shots": 1.0406, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "key_pass": 0.6355, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.5014, "accurate_pass": 10.11, "duels_won": 0.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2805, "crosses_total": 1.5322, "crosses_accurate": 0.581, "touches": 17.7482, "possession_lost": 3.4593, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.2236, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 0.7825, "won_contest": 0.2717, "ball_recovery": 1.0329, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.2177, "fouls_drawn": 0.3114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2861, "clearances": 0.4796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1216, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2434, "total_progression": 37.4692, "progressive_carries": 1.0312, "shots_off_target": 0.6245 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 18.41, "minutes_scale": 1.4554, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.08 (squad xG sum 1.6774, xG scale 1.8356, xA scale 1.8356, team xA 2.27 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1113, "after": 0.1281 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0857, "after": 0.0986 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 257, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "scorer_weight": 0.153, "squad_weight_total": 3.6309, "weight_share": 0.0421, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3346, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5821 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.5821, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5821, "runner_up": "Erling Haaland", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5679 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5679, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0912, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0912, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0789, "squad_weight_total": 2.3181, "weight_share": 0.034, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3977 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3977, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3977, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jérémy Doku": { "player_id": 934386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 173, "market_value": 70000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 107, "progressive_carries": 6, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1351, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "expected_assists": 0.0888, 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"keyPass", "predicted": 1.3099671602249146, "model_output": 1.31, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2421 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0976 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.108 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0977 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0676 } ], "others": 0.5078, "total": 1.31, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.44554 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.203998 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.185807 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.142733 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.088053 } ], "others_margin": 0.490413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.2770867347717285, "model_output": 7.2771, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0655 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.051 } ], "others": 0.3481, "total": 7.2771, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.069908 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065509 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.054973 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.051627 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.051007 } ], "others_margin": 0.348079 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.0885, "shots_on_target": 0.3098, "total_shots": 1.1134, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "key_pass": 1.3294, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 23.06, "total_pass": 12.8566, "accurate_pass": 10.5875, "duels_won": 2.916, "total_long_balls": 0.3765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.99, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7681, "crosses_total": 0.9488, "crosses_accurate": 0.2209, "touches": 21.928, "possession_lost": 6.1811, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.2116, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 2.8007, "won_contest": 1.6899, "ball_recovery": 0.7873, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.2608, "fouls_drawn": 1.1021, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0873, "tackles_won": 0.124, "tackles": 0.124, "clearances": 0.1471, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3204, "big_chances_missed": 0.0527, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.3798, "total_progression": 91.1129, "progressive_carries": 5.026, "shots_off_target": 0.8035 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 70000000, "quality_factor": 0.8707, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.1037, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1398, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.01, "projection_minutes": 23.06, "minutes_scale": 1.1712, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.1037, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1398, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1299, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1398, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.08 (squad xG sum 1.6774, xG scale 1.8356, xA scale 1.8356, team xA 2.27 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.081, "after": 0.0947 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1299, "after": 0.1519 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 111, "fifa_rank": 204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "scorer_weight": 0.1111, "squad_weight_total": 3.6309, "weight_share": 0.0306, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3346, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5821 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.5821, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5821, "runner_up": "Erling Haaland", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5679 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5679, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3628, "total_shots": 1.304, "expected_assists": 0.1519, "key_pass": 1.557, "rating": 7.2771, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0577, "accurate_pass": 12.4001, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 0.441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2365, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "crosses_total": 1.1112, "crosses_accurate": 0.2587, "touches": 25.6821, "possession_lost": 7.2393, "dispossessed": 0.755, "duels_lost": 2.5902, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2802, "won_contest": 1.9792, "ball_recovery": 0.9221, "challenges_lost": 0.0472, "fouls": 0.3054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2908, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1022, "tackles_won": 0.1452, "tackles": 0.1452, "clearances": 0.1723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3753, "big_chances_missed": 0.0617, "xgot": 0.1635, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1568, "total_progression": 106.7116, "progressive_carries": 5.8865, "shots_off_target": 0.9411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1351, "finishing_factor": 1.1733, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1351, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.1215, "squad_weight_total": 2.3181, "weight_share": 0.0524, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3977 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3977, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3977, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } } ] }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "player_id": 893549, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0912, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5414, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "total_shots": 4, 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true }, { "match_id": 14025286, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "expected_assists": 0.2415, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 257, "combined_rank_score": 193.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 184.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2286, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7342, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tijjani Reijnders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Carvallo", "ranking": 252 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Mittelstädt", "ranking": 254 }, { "player_name": "Seong-Jin Kang", "ranking": 255 }, { "player_name": "Mujaid Sadick", "ranking": 256 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Vargas", "ranking": 258 }, { "player_name": "James Nicholas Delianov", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Scott McTominay", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Éder Militão", "ranking": 262 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2162 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0675 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0658 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0269 } ], "others": 0.0639, "total": 0.6266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.38726 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.137689 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118121 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.097258 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.048963 } ], "others_margin": 0.10769 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734193801879883, "model_output": 6.7342, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0407, "total": 6.7342, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07885 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018533 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.013047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011543 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.011428 } ], "others_margin": 0.040671 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0765, "goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.098, "shots_on_target": 0.4161, "total_shots": 1.0406, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "key_pass": 0.6355, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.5014, "accurate_pass": 10.11, "duels_won": 0.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2805, "crosses_total": 1.5322, "crosses_accurate": 0.581, "touches": 17.7482, "possession_lost": 3.4593, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.2236, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 0.7825, "won_contest": 0.2717, "ball_recovery": 1.0329, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.2177, "fouls_drawn": 0.3114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2861, "clearances": 0.4796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1216, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2434, "total_progression": 37.4692, "progressive_carries": 1.0312, "shots_off_target": 0.6245 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 18.41, "minutes_scale": 1.4554, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.08 (squad xG sum 1.6774, xG scale 1.8356, xA scale 1.8356, team xA 2.27 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.079, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6774, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2357, "team_expected_assists": 2.2682, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7367, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8356, "xa_scale": 1.8356, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1113, "after": 0.1281 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0857, "after": 0.0986 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 257, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "scorer_weight": 0.153, "squad_weight_total": 3.6309, "weight_share": 0.0421, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3346, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5821 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.5821, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5821, "runner_up": "Erling Haaland", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5679 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.3346, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5679, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6056, "total_shots": 1.5145, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "key_pass": 0.9249, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1059, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.9089, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.439, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0912, "finishing_factor": 1.194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0912, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0789, "squad_weight_total": 2.3181, "weight_share": 0.034, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3977 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3977, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3977, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.08, "expected_assists": 2.27, "total_shots": 19, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 514, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.99, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } }, "Ipswich": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Emersonn": { "player_id": 1128844, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 186, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2426, "goal_rate": 0.3161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7765, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.4876, "dispossessed": 1.2226, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2073, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8307, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nico O'Reilly, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Nico O'Reilly, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0443, "finishing_factor": 1.1711, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0223, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3161, "goals": 0.3739, "goal_rate": 0.3739, "shots_on_target": 0.8947, "total_shots": 2.0954, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.6186, "rating": 6.7765, "minutes": 70.33, "total_pass": 8.2972, "accurate_pass": 6.124, "duels_won": 4.9066, "total_long_balls": 0.1285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1291, "crosses_total": 0.1093, "crosses_accurate": 0.1093, "touches": 23.448, "possession_lost": 8.4876, "dispossessed": 1.2226, "duels_lost": 7.0113, "aerial_lost": 4.3766, "total_contest": 1.6835, "won_contest": 0.8888, "ball_recovery": 0.8624, "challenges_lost": 0.489, "fouls": 0.1285, "fouls_drawn": 1.7028, "assists": 0.1779, "assist_rate": 0.1779, "interceptions": 0.2462, "tackles_won": 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"predicted": 6.702991485595703, "model_output": 6.703, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0319 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0545, "total": 6.703, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039715 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.031895 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.017271 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0857, "goals": 0.0939, "goal_rate": 0.0939, "shots_on_target": 0.3899, "total_shots": 1.2209, "expected_assists": 0.1017, "key_pass": 0.9729, "rating": 6.703, "minutes": 73.36, "total_pass": 15.5091, "accurate_pass": 11.2092, "duels_won": 5.9901, "total_long_balls": 1.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8901, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1114, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1285, "crosses_total": 5.49, "crosses_accurate": 1.9724, "touches": 39.2213, "possession_lost": 15.3148, "dispossessed": 1.9522, "duels_lost": 7.3725, "aerial_lost": 0.7994, "total_contest": 4.3676, "won_contest": 2.398, "ball_recovery": 2.2838, "challenges_lost": 0.6875, "fouls": 2.24, "fouls_drawn": 1.3428, "assists": 0.1697, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles_won": 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} }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7472971081733704, "model_output": 0.7473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0912 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0711 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": 0.1131, "total": 0.7473, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.246845 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.157547 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132428 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.086883 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.042678 } ], "others_margin": 0.164015 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.473991870880127, "model_output": 2.474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1971 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.117 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0843 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0724 } ], "others": 0.2625, "total": 2.474, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.745156 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.197087 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.116998 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.084323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.072438 } ], "others_margin": 0.262456 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.869918346405029, "model_output": 6.8699, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": 0.0121, "total": 6.8699, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.041968 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.031153 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030572 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019765 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01687 } ], "others_margin": 0.01211 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0269, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3815, "expected_assists": 0.1494, "assists": 0.137, "assist_rate": 0.137, "expected_goals": 0.2013, "goals": 0.2289, "goal_rate": 0.2289, "shots_on_target": 0.7674, "total_shots": 2.5405, "rating": 6.8699, "minutes": 81.59, "total_pass": 23.0966, "accurate_pass": 19.0405, "duels_won": 3.7921, "total_long_balls": 1.2227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5426, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2997, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7378, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3027, "crosses_total": 0.426, "crosses_accurate": 0.2473, "touches": 40.6341, "possession_lost": 11.667, "dispossessed": 2.4143, "duels_lost": 5.8627, "aerial_won": 0.1787, "aerial_lost": 0.3621, "interceptions": 0.4135, "tackles_won": 0.2389, "tackles": 0.4861, "clearances": 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"margin": 0.034131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032153 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.020813 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.020113 } ], "others_margin": -0.012117 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0271, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "assists": 0.0451, "assist_rate": 0.0451, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.1383, "total_shots": 0.6771, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3992, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3156, "tackles_won": 1.3156, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3665, "fouls_drawn": 1.5531, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0271, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0065)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "assists": 0.0448, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1374, "total_shots": 0.6727, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0065, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9364, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3156, "after": 1.3476 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3156, "after": 1.3273 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3665, "after": 1.3779 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5531, "after": 1.5633 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "assists": 0.0448, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1374, "total_shots": 0.6761, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "assists": 0.0448, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.1197, "total_shots": 0.5892, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.4695, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "skill_edge": -0.0794, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.7219, "defender_skill": 0.8984, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "market_value": 109000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8984 } ], "xg_override": 0.0346 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6761, "after": 0.5892 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5387, "after": 0.4695 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1374, "after": 0.1197 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0484, "after": 0.0422 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0397, "after": 0.0346 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1197, "total_shots": 0.5892, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.4695, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.2730, xG scale 0.9238, xA scale 0.9738, team xA 0.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1197, "total_shots": 0.5892, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.4695, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0898, "creation_factor": 0.9634 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 1.273, "squad_xa_sum": 0.785, "team_expected_assists": 0.7644, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9238, "xa_scale": 0.9738, "opponent_lambda": 3.079, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1197, "total_shots": 0.5892, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.4695, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0898, "creation_factor": 0.9634, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 340, "fifa_rank": 287.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1197, "total_shots": 0.5892, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.4695, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0315, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0898, "creation_factor": 0.9634, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0315, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "scorer_weight": 0.0349, "squad_weight_total": 1.3239, "weight_share": 0.0263, "finishing_factor": 1.0898, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.2858, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2858, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2841 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6844, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1197, "total_shots": 0.5892, "rating": 6.9634, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.6873, "accurate_pass": 53.6298, "duels_won": 4.1243, "total_long_balls": 2.673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0452, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4276, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2023, "crosses_total": 0.3966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.0068, "possession_lost": 6.9192, "dispossessed": 0.3992, "duels_lost": 2.7928, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3476, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "tackles": 2.5712, "clearances": 1.3575, "total_contest": 0.3992, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6279, "fouls": 1.3779, "fouls_drawn": 1.5633, "blocks": 0.6877, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.6934, "total_progression": 64.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.9163, "shots_off_target": 0.4695, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson", "opponent_faced": "Elliot 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0.8291, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124913 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.058652 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.054815 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.052879 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.034717 } ], "others_margin": -0.063314 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.624703407287598, "model_output": 5.6247, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.9327 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.6176 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3386 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 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"name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0231, "total": 0.591, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06603 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.025812 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.021991 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.012604 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.010951 } ], "others_margin": 0.023073 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.875291347503662, "model_output": 6.8753, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 6.8753, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.03572 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015502 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.015403 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013853 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.013433 } ], "others_margin": -0.003324 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2285, "tackles": 1.6264, "tackles_won": 0.8444, "clearances": 5.7288, "aerial_won": 3.1832, "total_shots": 0.602, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.0488, "accurate_pass": 37.2317, "duels_won": 5.8969, "total_long_balls": 6.0943, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7565, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.298, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9335, "crosses_total": 1.0964, "crosses_accurate": 0.614, "touches": 68.8315, "possession_lost": 13.3213, "dispossessed": 0.3541, "duels_lost": 4.273, "aerial_lost": 2.3306, "total_contest": 0.5137, "won_contest": 0.3857, "ball_recovery": 4.4749, "challenges_lost": 0.7136, "fouls": 0.8747, "fouls_drawn": 0.6135, "blocks": 0.6346, "goals": 0.2453, "goal_rate": 0.2453, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.2453, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2215, "ball_carries": 11.678, "total_progression": 49.859, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "key_pass": 0.9578, "shots_off_target": 0.3567 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1998, "tackles": 1.6264, "tackles_won": 0.8308, "clearances": 5.7288, "aerial_won": 3.1832, "total_shots": 0.598, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.0488, "accurate_pass": 37.2317, "duels_won": 5.8969, "total_long_balls": 6.0943, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7565, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.298, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9335, "crosses_total": 1.0926, "crosses_accurate": 0.614, "touches": 68.8315, "possession_lost": 13.3213, "dispossessed": 0.3541, "duels_lost": 4.273, "aerial_lost": 2.3306, "total_contest": 0.5137, "won_contest": 0.3857, "ball_recovery": 4.4749, "challenges_lost": 0.7136, "fouls": 0.8993, "fouls_drawn": 0.6287, "blocks": 0.6346, "goals": 0.2356, "goal_rate": 0.2356, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2215, "ball_carries": 11.678, "total_progression": 49.859, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "key_pass": 0.9578, "shots_off_target": 0.3567 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0394, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2285, "after": 1.1998 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8747, "after": 0.8993 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6135, "after": 0.6287 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8444, "after": 0.8308 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2453, "after": 0.2356 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2453, "after": 0.2356 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1998, "tackles": 1.6264, "tackles_won": 0.8308, "clearances": 5.7288, "aerial_won": 3.1832, "total_shots": 0.598, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.0488, "accurate_pass": 37.2317, "duels_won": 5.8969, "total_long_balls": 6.0943, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7565, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.298, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9335, "crosses_total": 1.0926, "crosses_accurate": 0.614, "touches": 68.8315, "possession_lost": 13.3213, "dispossessed": 0.3541, "duels_lost": 4.273, "aerial_lost": 2.3306, "total_contest": 0.5137, "won_contest": 0.3857, "ball_recovery": 4.4749, "challenges_lost": 0.7136, "fouls": 0.8993, "fouls_drawn": 0.6287, "blocks": 0.6346, "goals": 0.2356, "goal_rate": 0.2356, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2215, "ball_carries": 11.678, "total_progression": 49.859, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "key_pass": 0.9578, "shots_off_target": 0.3567 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1998, "tackles": 1.6264, "tackles_won": 0.8308, "clearances": 5.7288, "aerial_won": 3.1832, "total_shots": 0.598, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.0488, "accurate_pass": 37.2317, "duels_won": 5.8969, "total_long_balls": 6.0943, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7565, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.298, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9335, "crosses_total": 1.0926, "crosses_accurate": 0.614, "touches": 68.8315, "possession_lost": 13.3213, "dispossessed": 0.3541, "duels_lost": 4.273, "aerial_lost": 2.3306, "total_contest": 0.5137, "won_contest": 0.3857, "ball_recovery": 4.4749, "challenges_lost": 0.7136, "fouls": 0.8993, "fouls_drawn": 0.6287, "blocks": 0.6346, "goals": 0.2356, "goal_rate": 0.2356, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2215, "ball_carries": 11.678, "total_progression": 49.859, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "key_pass": 0.9578, "shots_off_target": 0.3567, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1998, "tackles": 1.6264, "tackles_won": 0.8308, "clearances": 5.7288, "aerial_won": 3.1832, "total_shots": 0.598, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.0488, "accurate_pass": 37.2317, "duels_won": 5.8969, "total_long_balls": 6.0943, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7565, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.298, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9335, "crosses_total": 1.0926, "crosses_accurate": 0.614, "touches": 68.8315, "possession_lost": 13.3213, "dispossessed": 0.3541, "duels_lost": 4.273, "aerial_lost": 2.3306, "total_contest": 0.5137, "won_contest": 0.3857, "ball_recovery": 4.4749, "challenges_lost": 0.7136, "fouls": 0.8993, "fouls_drawn": 0.6287, "blocks": 0.6346, "goal_rate": 0.2356, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2215, "ball_carries": 11.678, "total_progression": 49.859, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "key_pass": 0.9578, "shots_off_target": 0.3567, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.2730, xG scale 0.9238, xA scale 0.9738, team xA 0.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1998, "tackles": 1.6264, "tackles_won": 0.8308, "clearances": 5.7288, "aerial_won": 3.1832, "total_shots": 0.598, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.0488, "accurate_pass": 37.2317, "duels_won": 5.8969, "total_long_balls": 6.0943, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7565, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.298, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9335, "crosses_total": 1.0926, "crosses_accurate": 0.614, "touches": 68.8315, "possession_lost": 13.3213, "dispossessed": 0.3541, "duels_lost": 4.273, "aerial_lost": 2.3306, "total_contest": 0.5137, "won_contest": 0.3857, "ball_recovery": 4.4749, "challenges_lost": 0.7136, "fouls": 0.8993, "fouls_drawn": 0.6287, "blocks": 0.6346, "goal_rate": 0.2356, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2046, "ball_carries": 11.678, "total_progression": 49.859, "progressive_carries": 0.9096, "key_pass": 0.9578, "shots_off_target": 0.3567, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 1.273, "squad_xa_sum": 0.785, "team_expected_assists": 0.7644, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9238, "xa_scale": 0.9738, "opponent_lambda": 3.079, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0665, "after": 0.0614 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1227 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0636 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0391 } ], "others": -0.1601, "total": 0.6036, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.277123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122654 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063637 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.052857 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.039068 } ], "others_margin": -0.160012 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.869901657104492, "model_output": 6.8699, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0405, "total": 6.8699, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042637 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03242 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027996 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020236 }, { "name": 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0.7871, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1497, "interceptions": 0.618, "tackles_won": 0.5871, "tackles": 1.0416, "clearances": 1.3622, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6373, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2424, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0835, "ball_carries": 9.5452, "total_progression": 27.0156, "progressive_carries": 0.6373, "shots_off_target": 0.3783, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7943, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson, Ayyoub Bouaddi", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson, Ayyoub Bouaddi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson, Ayyoub Bouaddi", 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"saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.52, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.798067743081427, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.14, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0058, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (4 historical appearances) to 4.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.14); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9361, "goals_prevented": -0.0325, "rating": 7.0041, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.9959, "accurate_pass": 19.1499, "total_long_balls": 17.0948, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8294, "touches": 45.8638, "clearances": 1.8143, "ball_recovery": 9.5662, "high_claims": 2.0464, "punches": 0.96, "aerial_won": 0.8544, "sweeper_actions": 1.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7191, "saves_inside_box": 1.6802, "possession_lost": 12.846, "duels_won": 1.0471, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5717 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.8294, "save_contribution": 3.0288, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8672, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.5718, "passValueNormalized": 0.064, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 17.9381 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9360625743865967, "model_output": 2.9361, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.21 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0524 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0462 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": 0.0453, "total": 2.9361, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074087 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.018993 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016475 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.010735 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010673 } ], "others_margin": 0.015518 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.03251485154032707, "model_output": -0.0325, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.068 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": -0.0711, "total": -0.0325, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.067985 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.030042 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029101 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.0186 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01823 } ], "others_margin": -0.071076 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.004072189331055, "model_output": 7.0041, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0321, "total": 7.0041, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.05694 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029834 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.021438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016662 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014446 } ], "others_margin": 0.03211 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9531, "goals_prevented": -0.0327, "rating": 7.0041, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.1757, "accurate_pass": 19.261, "total_long_balls": 17.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8632, "touches": 46.1298, "clearances": 1.8248, "ball_recovery": 9.6217, "high_claims": 2.0583, "punches": 0.9656, "aerial_won": 0.8594, "sweeper_actions": 1.0058, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7233, "saves_inside_box": 1.6899, "possession_lost": 12.9205, "duels_won": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.662 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11500000, "quality_factor": 0.5399, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8719, "goals_prevented": -0.0327, "rating": 7.0041, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.1757, "accurate_pass": 19.261, "total_long_balls": 17.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8632, "touches": 46.1298, "clearances": 1.8248, "ball_recovery": 9.6217, "high_claims": 2.0583, "punches": 0.9656, "aerial_won": 0.8594, "sweeper_actions": 1.0058, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7233, "saves_inside_box": 1.6899, "possession_lost": 12.9205, "duels_won": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.662 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9531, "after": 2.8719 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.14)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4835, "goals_prevented": -0.0055, "rating": 7.0041, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.8, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1684, "appearance_probability": 0.14 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4835, "goals_prevented": -0.0055, "rating": 7.0041, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4835, "goals_prevented": -0.0055, "rating": 7.0041, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.14, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4835, "goals_prevented": -0.0055, "rating": 7.0041, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": 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"Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3849, "combined_rank_score": 1842.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1003.0, "sofascore_rating": 5.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2682.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7954, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jacob Greaves", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abner Vinícius", "ranking": 3844 }, { "player_name": "Saša Kalajdžić", "ranking": 3845 }, { "player_name": "Matthis Abline", "ranking": 3846 }, { "player_name": "Ander Guevara", "ranking": 3847 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Pagis", "ranking": 3848 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martial Godo", "ranking": 3850 }, { "player_name": "Tomasz Kędziora", "ranking": 3851 }, { "player_name": "Kévin Danois", "ranking": 3852 }, { "player_name": "Gauthier Hein", "ranking": 3853 }, { "player_name": "Keito Nakamura", "ranking": 3854 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.52, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.188968839330762, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.23, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0147, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (4 historical appearances) to 14.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { 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1.6993 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4120272994041443, "model_output": 0.412, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4672 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0059, "total": 0.412, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.782322 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.088777 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.047704 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.039166 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032706 } ], "others_margin": 0.014664 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5988944172859192, "model_output": 0.5989, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7177 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.048, "total": 0.5989, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.725248 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.050874 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.044634 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.024124 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.022879 } ], "others_margin": -0.077045 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.34192585945129395, "model_output": 0.3419, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4378 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0484, "total": 0.3419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.718594 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032194 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.030466 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.029741 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.027905 } ], "others_margin": -0.132443 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7328503131866455, "model_output": 1.7329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1446 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0916 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0423 } ], "others": 0.1287, "total": 1.7328, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.980186 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.148613 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059487 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.037309 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.026025 } ], "others_margin": 0.077213 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6780021786689758, "model_output": 0.678, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8468 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.678, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.954098 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.170685 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059965 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044749 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.023386 } ], "others_margin": -0.006654 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.11756479740142822, "model_output": 0.1176, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1862 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0767, "total": 0.1176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.18616 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075888 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023019 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.013973 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009052 } ], "others_margin": -0.076789 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.79539155960083, "model_output": 6.7954, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 6.7954, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.025119 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018404 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017046 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.015355 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013001 } ], "others_margin": -0.015425 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0147, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4181, "tackles": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 0.347, "clearances": 1.7583, "aerial_won": 0.688, "total_shots": 0.1193, "rating": 6.7954, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 52.0104, "accurate_pass": 46.7353, "duels_won": 3.9335, "total_long_balls": 3.159, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 33.3634, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4757, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2595, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.8259, "possession_lost": 5.4707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9888, "aerial_lost": 1.4403, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2015, "challenges_lost": 0.3184, "fouls": 0.4256, "fouls_drawn": 1.1219, "blocks": 1.2386, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.491, "total_progression": 48.7226, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2706, "shots_off_target": 0.1193 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.0147, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.398, "tackles": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 0.3447, "clearances": 1.7583, "aerial_won": 0.688, "total_shots": 0.1136, "rating": 6.7954, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 52.0104, "accurate_pass": 46.7353, "duels_won": 3.9335, "total_long_balls": 3.159, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 33.3634, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4757, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2595, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.8259, "possession_lost": 5.4707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9888, "aerial_lost": 1.4403, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.2015, "challenges_lost": 0.3184, "fouls": 0.4147, "fouls_drawn": 1.0872, "blocks": 1.2386, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.491, "total_progression": 48.7226, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2706, "shots_off_target": 0.1193 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1219, "after": 1.0872 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4181, "after": 0.398 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4256, "after": 0.4147 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.1193, "after": 0.1136 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3137, "tackles": 0.479, "tackles_won": 0.2717, "clearances": 1.386, "aerial_won": 0.5423, "total_shots": 0.094, "rating": 6.7954, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 40.9986, "accurate_pass": 36.8403, "duels_won": 3.1007, "total_long_balls": 2.4902, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1205, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8115, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0287, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.5242, "possession_lost": 4.3124, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5677, "aerial_lost": 1.4403, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.5237, "challenges_lost": 0.3184, "fouls": 0.3269, "fouls_drawn": 0.857, "blocks": 0.9764, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2112, "total_progression": 38.4069, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2133, "shots_off_target": 0.094, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.19, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7883, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3137, "tackles": 0.479, "tackles_won": 0.2717, "clearances": 1.386, "aerial_won": 0.5423, "total_shots": 0.094, "rating": 6.7954, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 40.9986, "accurate_pass": 36.8403, "duels_won": 3.1007, "total_long_balls": 2.4902, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1205, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8115, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0287, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.5242, "possession_lost": 4.3124, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5677, "aerial_lost": 1.4403, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.5237, "challenges_lost": 0.3184, "fouls": 0.3269, "fouls_drawn": 0.857, "blocks": 0.9764, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2112, "total_progression": 38.4069, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2133, "shots_off_target": 0.094, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or 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0.0068, "total_shots": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.0211, "shots_off_target": 0.0271, "big_chances_created": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 2.8652, "total_progression": 8.4449, "progressive_carries": 0.6032, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2111, "tackles": 0.3318, "tackles_won": 0.196, "clearances": 0.377, "aerial_won": 0.3167, "duels_won": 0.7842, "total_pass": 6.3337, "accurate_pass": 4.9765, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 13.57, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4222, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1669, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9048, "crosses_total": 0.1206, "crosses_accurate": 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"margin": -0.209302 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.052028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03409 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.03357 } ], "others_margin": -0.063972 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717960834503174, "model_output": 6.718, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0945 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 6.718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094544 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028297 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006314 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.005439 } ], "others_margin": -0.010972 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0031, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3639, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "assists": 0.0458, "assist_rate": 0.0458, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0798, "total_shots": 0.2903, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 17.9, "total_pass": 14.0632, "accurate_pass": 10.5732, "duels_won": 1.563, "total_long_balls": 1.0623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4432, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1903, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.803, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3829, "crosses_total": 0.1758, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8634, "possession_lost": 4.4671, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 1.6962, "aerial_won": 0.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.3338, "tackles_won": 0.3981, "tackles": 0.9076, "clearances": 0.5873, "total_contest": 0.428, "won_contest": 0.2838, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.2848, "fouls_drawn": 0.3054, "blocks": 0.501, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5112, "total_progression": 7.6616, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2105 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0031, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.9 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0352, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 17.9, "minutes_scale": 1.2601, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0352, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.2730, xG scale 0.9238, xA scale 0.9738, team xA 0.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 1.273, "squad_xa_sum": 0.785, "team_expected_assists": 0.7644, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9238, "xa_scale": 0.9738, "opponent_lambda": 3.079, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0239, "after": 0.0116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0347, "after": 0.0177 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1822, "fifa_rank": 725.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "scorer_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 1.3239, "weight_share": 0.0101, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.2858, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2858, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2841 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0174, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0174, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "provider_weight": 0.0221, "squad_weight_total": 0.8324, "weight_share": 0.0266, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.159, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.159, "runner_up": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1237, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marcelino Núñez": { "player_id": 1014801, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 173, "market_value": 14900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "assist_rate": 0.0511, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0413, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0251 } ], "others": -0.1392, "total": 0.2393, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.32287 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035069 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028382 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.025051 } ], "others_margin": -0.139443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.689737796783447, "model_output": 6.6897, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0912 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0441, "total": 6.6897, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091213 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.028247 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024406 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017674 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.014152 } ], "others_margin": -0.04412 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.578)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3728, "expected_assists": 0.037, "assists": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0366, "goal_rate": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.0827, "total_shots": 0.243, "rating": 6.6897, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 35.0554, "accurate_pass": 30.2788, "duels_won": 2.4157, "total_long_balls": 2.1138, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5648, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4237, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8551, "crosses_total": 1.0157, "crosses_accurate": 0.4667, "touches": 46.4477, "possession_lost": 7.3569, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5138, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4667, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 1.4824, "clearances": 2.0314, 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"position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 181, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0666, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 6.4631, "dispossessed": 0.3371, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.4034, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1246, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 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"away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1467, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3162, "combined_rank_score": 1128.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2204.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7111, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jhon Durán", "ranking": 3157 }, { "player_name": "Unai López", "ranking": 3158 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 3159 }, { "player_name": "Albion Rrahmani", "ranking": 3160 }, { "player_name": "Leon Bailey", "ranking": 3161 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.564, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.564, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.735, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0204, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 5.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (5 historical appearances) to 22.7 expected mins (appearance prob 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1779, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.3094, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.2730, xG scale 0.9238, xA scale 0.9738, team xA 0.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2286, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 1.273, "squad_xa_sum": 0.785, "team_expected_assists": 0.7644, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9238, "xa_scale": 0.9738, "opponent_lambda": 3.079, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.592 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1779, "after": 0.0973 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0222, "after": 0.0128 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7111, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jhon Durán", "ranking": 3157 }, { "player_name": "Unai López", "ranking": 3158 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 3159 }, { "player_name": "Albion Rrahmani", "ranking": 3160 }, { "player_name": "Leon Bailey", "ranking": 3161 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.564, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", 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"match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.735, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0204, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 5.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (5 historical appearances) to 22.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.73); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0714, "goals": 0.0589, "goal_rate": 0.0589, "shots_on_target": 0.237, "total_shots": 0.5814, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "key_pass": 0.8131, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 22.26, "total_pass": 15.7872, "accurate_pass": 11.8611, 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{ "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 15.022, "expectedGoals": 0.0509, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 11.4133, "accuratePass": 15.8105, "totalShots": 0.6419 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07139187306165695, "model_output": 0.0714, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0888 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.0714, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.59722 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.183597 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053385 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04488 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.041661 } ], "others_margin": -0.096911 } }, { "target": "goals", 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], "others": 0.0116, "total": 0.0796, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.29747 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.162797 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.08764 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.070643 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.033893 } ], "others_margin": 0.156808 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8131464719772339, "model_output": 0.8131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2214 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0797 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.076 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": 0.1484, "total": 0.8131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398658 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.162372 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.133627 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.045772 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043848 } ], "others_margin": 0.201659 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.711112976074219, "model_output": 6.7111, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0825 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 6.7111, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08252 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014074 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.011028 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010949 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010938 } ], "others_margin": 0.001539 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0728, "goals": 0.0601, "goal_rate": 0.0601, "shots_on_target": 0.2419, "total_shots": 0.5933, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "key_pass": 0.8297, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 22.26, "total_pass": 16.1093, "accurate_pass": 12.1031, "duels_won": 0.2866, "total_long_balls": 1.4082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6743, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1014, "crosses_total": 1.9832, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 22.2842, "possession_lost": 6.3267, "dispossessed": 0.3371, "duels_lost": 1.4082, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3966, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0204, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.3371, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.3966, "assist_rate": 0.3966, "interceptions": 0.3371, "tackles_won": 0.2866, "tackles": 0.2866, "clearances": 0.3966, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5924, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1796, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.427, "total_progression": 50.5002, "progressive_carries": 2.8342, "shots_off_target": 0.3514 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0728, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2457, "total_shots": 0.6004, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "key_pass": 0.8297, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 22.26, "total_pass": 16.1093, "accurate_pass": 12.1031, "duels_won": 0.2866, "total_long_balls": 1.4082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6743, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1014, "crosses_total": 1.9746, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 22.2842, "possession_lost": 6.3267, "dispossessed": 0.3371, "duels_lost": 1.4082, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3966, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0204, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.3949, "assist_rate": 0.3949, "interceptions": 0.3356, "tackles_won": 0.2907, "tackles": 0.2866, "clearances": 0.3966, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5924, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1796, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.427, "total_progression": 50.5002, "progressive_carries": 2.8342, "shots_off_target": 0.3514 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2473, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9832, "after": 1.9746 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5933, "after": 0.6004 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0601, "after": 0.0652 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0666, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6133, "expected_assists": 0.083, "key_pass": 0.8476, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 16.4567, "accurate_pass": 12.3641, "duels_won": 0.2928, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6888, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2977, "crosses_total": 2.0172, "crosses_accurate": 0.4052, "touches": 22.7647, "possession_lost": 6.4631, "dispossessed": 0.3371, "duels_lost": 1.4386, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.3428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.4034, "assist_rate": 0.4034, "interceptions": 0.3428, "tackles_won": 0.2928, "tackles": 0.2928, "clearances": 0.4052, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6087, "total_progression": 51.5892, "progressive_carries": 2.8953, "shots_off_target": 0.359, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.74, "projection_minutes": 22.26, "minutes_scale": 1.0216, "appearance_probability": 0.735 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0666, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6133, "expected_assists": 0.083, "key_pass": 0.8476, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 16.4567, "accurate_pass": 12.3641, "duels_won": 0.2928, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6888, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2977, "crosses_total": 2.0172, "crosses_accurate": 0.4052, "touches": 22.7647, "possession_lost": 6.4631, "dispossessed": 0.3371, "duels_lost": 1.4386, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.3428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.4034, "assist_rate": 0.4034, "interceptions": 0.3428, "tackles_won": 0.2928, "tackles": 0.2928, "clearances": 0.4052, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6087, "total_progression": 51.5892, "progressive_carries": 2.8953, "shots_off_target": 0.359, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0666, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6133, "expected_assists": 0.083, "key_pass": 0.8476, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 16.4567, "accurate_pass": 12.3641, "duels_won": 0.2928, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6888, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2977, "crosses_total": 2.0172, "crosses_accurate": 0.4052, "touches": 22.7647, "possession_lost": 6.4631, "dispossessed": 0.3371, "duels_lost": 1.4386, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.3428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.4034, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3428, "tackles_won": 0.2928, "tackles": 0.2928, "clearances": 0.4052, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6087, "total_progression": 51.5892, "progressive_carries": 2.8953, "shots_off_target": 0.359, 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-2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370494 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.195118 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.186216 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.082811 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.079432 } ], "others_margin": -0.498458 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.289336621761322, "model_output": 0.2893, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2424 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.2893, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446161 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.092762 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.082577 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.055789 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.040335 } ], "others_margin": -0.127079 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62883996963501, "model_output": 6.6288, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 6.6288, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061642 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013719 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010129 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.00947 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008732 } ], "others_margin": -0.034472 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0045, quality 0.620)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1256, "goals": 0.1624, "goal_rate": 0.1624, "shots_on_target": 0.3605, "total_shots": 0.9196, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.2906, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 18.37, "total_pass": 3.9767, "accurate_pass": 2.3326, "duels_won": 0.8154, "total_long_balls": 0.3968, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9823, "crosses_total": 0.3073, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 7.849, "possession_lost": 2.9286, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 2.5431, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.2341, "won_contest": 0.1079, "ball_recovery": 0.8561, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9226, "fouls_drawn": 0.148, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0917, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1493, "clearances": 0.1269, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0631, "xgot": 0.2185, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 1.5918, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5591 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18900000, "quality_factor": 0.6201, "boost_factor": 1.0045, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1779, "goals": 0.23, "goal_rate": 0.23, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.3094, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.02, "projection_minutes": 18.37, "minutes_scale": 1.4162, "appearance_probability": 0.592 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1779, "goals": 0.23, "goal_rate": 0.23, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.3094, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1779, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.3094, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.2730, xG scale 0.9238, xA scale 0.9738, team xA 0.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2286, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 1.273, "squad_xa_sum": 0.785, "team_expected_assists": 0.7644, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9238, "xa_scale": 0.9738, "opponent_lambda": 3.079, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.592 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1779, "after": 0.0973 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0222, "after": 0.0128 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2286, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3238, "fifa_rank": 1811.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, "ball_recovery": 1.2124, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3066, "fouls_drawn": 0.2096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2114, "clearances": 0.1797, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0894, "xgot": 0.1692, "offsides": 0.1858, "ball_carries": 2.2543, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0897, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2286, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.23, "scorer_weight": 0.1195, "squad_weight_total": 1.3239, "weight_share": 0.0903, "finishing_factor": 1.2286, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.2858, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2858, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2841 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.23, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5105, "total_shots": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.4115, "rating": 6.6288, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 5.6318, "accurate_pass": 3.3034, "duels_won": 1.1548, "total_long_balls": 0.5619, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8073, "crosses_total": 0.4352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 11.1158, "possession_lost": 4.1475, "dispossessed": 0.4606, "duels_lost": 3.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.3315, "won_contest": 0.1528, 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"assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0102, "squad_weight_total": 0.8324, "weight_share": 0.0123, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.159, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.159, "runner_up": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1237, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Florentino Luís": { "player_id": 855845, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 184, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0174, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363877, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", 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"importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0945 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 6.718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094544 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028297 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006314 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.005439 } ], "others_margin": -0.010972 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0031, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3639, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "assists": 0.0458, "assist_rate": 0.0458, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0798, "total_shots": 0.2903, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 17.9, "total_pass": 14.0632, "accurate_pass": 10.5732, "duels_won": 1.563, "total_long_balls": 1.0623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4432, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1903, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.803, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3829, "crosses_total": 0.1758, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8634, "possession_lost": 4.4671, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 1.6962, "aerial_won": 0.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.3338, "tackles_won": 0.3981, "tackles": 0.9076, "clearances": 0.5873, "total_contest": 0.428, "won_contest": 0.2838, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.2848, "fouls_drawn": 0.3054, "blocks": 0.501, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5112, "total_progression": 7.6616, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2105 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0031, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.9 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0352, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 17.9, "minutes_scale": 1.2601, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0352, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.2730, xG scale 0.9238, xA scale 0.9738, team xA 0.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 1.273, "squad_xa_sum": 0.785, "team_expected_assists": 0.7644, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9238, "xa_scale": 0.9738, "opponent_lambda": 3.079, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0239, "after": 0.0116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0347, "after": 0.0177 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1822, "fifa_rank": 725.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "scorer_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 1.3239, "weight_share": 0.0101, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.2858, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2858, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2841 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4585, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3658, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0174, "finishing_factor": 1.1529, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0174, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "provider_weight": 0.0221, "squad_weight_total": 0.8324, "weight_share": 0.0266, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.159, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.159, "runner_up": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1237, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.18, "expected_assists": 0.76, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 413, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 120000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "Christian Walton" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "xg_contribution": 0.2537, "xg_multiplier": 1.202, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Christian Walton", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.443 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Christian Walton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€120M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.254 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.5817, "xg_multiplier": 1.2015, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Leif Davis and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.582 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Antoine Semenyo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 85000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.886, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.1534, "xg_multiplier": 1.1334, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antoine Semenyo (ST) is slightly favored against Leif Davis and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€85M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.153 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Iliman Ndiaye", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.1139, "xg_multiplier": 1.0862, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iliman Ndiaye (ST) is slightly favored against Leif Davis and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Anderson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 109000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.896, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.507, "xg_contribution": 0.0697, "xg_multiplier": 1.1285, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.493 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Anderson (CDM) is slightly favored against Exequiel Palacios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€109M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.531, "xg_contribution": 0.0715, "xg_multiplier": 1.1628, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.469 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayyoub Bouaddi (CDM) is slightly favored against Exequiel Palacios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Matheus Nunes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "xg_contribution": 0.169, "xg_multiplier": 0.8396, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matheus Nunes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Matheus Nunes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.169 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abdoul Ouattara", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.894, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0319, "xg_multiplier": 0.7943, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 98000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdoul Ouattara (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Elliot Anderson and Ayyoub Bouaddi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €104M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Emersonn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2626, "xg_multiplier": 0.8307, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emersonn (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Nico O'Reilly and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.263 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18800000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.619, "defenders": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0918, "xg_multiplier": 0.7686, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico O'Reilly and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0682, "xg_multiplier": 0.7955, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico O'Reilly and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Exequiel Palacios", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.0346, "xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Exequiel Palacios (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Saša Lukić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9400000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.515, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "xg_contribution": 0.0309, "xg_multiplier": 0.783, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728 } ], "duel_analysis": "Saša Lukić (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.031 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.895, "away_midfield_power": 0.65, "home_creative_power": 0.94, "away_creative_power": 0.584, "home_defensive_power": 0.759, "away_defensive_power": 0.578, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.579, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rayan Cherki", "Elliot Anderson", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Julio Enciso", "Exequiel Palacios", "Saša Lukić", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Rayan Cherki vs Julio Enciso", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.034, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.973 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.079, "away_lambda": 1.176, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Christian Walton", "Saša Lukić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Abdoul Ouattara", "Saša Lukić", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Nunes": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico O'Reilly": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Christian Walton": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Antoine Semenyo", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Antoine Semenyo", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Nunes", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdoul Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emersonn": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Saša Lukić": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Rayan Cherki vs Julio Enciso). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.24, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1365, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.955, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8633, "home_midfield_factor": 1.034, "away_midfield_factor": 0.973, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8714, "away_avg_quality": 0.6307, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2406, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.5093, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.568, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.5318, "elite_count_gap": 10, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5521, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3037, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1767, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2439, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2954 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.034, "result": 1.3395 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3395 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.5404 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1609, "result": 1.7882 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.8073 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.955, "result": 1.726 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.906 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.906, "result": 1.906, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5521, "factor": 1.3037, "pre": 1.906, "result": 2.4848 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.4848 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.705 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 2.8576 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.8576, "result": 2.858, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 2.858, "result": 2.9192, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.143, "pre": 2.9192, "result": 3.337 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.337 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9226, "input_total": 4.255, "result": 3.0787 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 3.0787, "result": 3.079, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 3.079 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.689, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8793 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.973, "result": 0.8555 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8555 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8555 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9342, "result": 0.7992 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.686 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8633, "result": 0.5922 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1365, "result": 0.7287 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.7287, "result": 0.7287, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5521, "factor": 0.8233, "pre": 0.7287, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2075, "result": 0.8575 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.3649 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3649, "result": 1.365, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.365, "result": 1.3358, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9548, "pre": 1.3358, "result": 1.275 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.275 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9226, "input_total": 4.255, "result": 1.1763 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.1763, "result": 1.176, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.176 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2075, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester City", "away_squad": "Ipswich Town", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.5521, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.143, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9548, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.9192, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.3358, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.8576, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3649, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.079, "final_away_lambda": 1.176 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1609, "attack_index": 1.269, "defense_concede_index": 1.119, "form_multiplier": 1.038, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.87, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.65, "team_ppg": 2.17, "opponent_ppg": 1.42 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9342, "attack_index": 1.006, "defense_concede_index": 0.855, "form_multiplier": 0.962, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.48, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.26, "team_ppg": 1.42, "opponent_ppg": 2.17 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Man City vs Ipswich. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.858, Away 1.365). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.079, Away 1.176 (most likely score 3-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester City", "away_squad": "Ipswich Town", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.079, "away_lambda": 1.176, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.858, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.365 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:31:45Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }