{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Liverpool", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261017", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1135, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0807, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0871, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2452, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1135 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0871 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0807 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0777 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0719 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0517, "0-1": 0.0777, "0-2": 0.0608, "0-3": 0.0313, "0-4": 0.0121, "0-5": 0.0038, "0-6": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0719, "1-1": 0.1135, "1-2": 0.0871, "1-3": 0.0449, "1-4": 0.0174, "1-5": 0.0054, "1-6": 0.0014, "2-0": 0.0522, "2-1": 0.0807, "2-2": 0.0624, "2-3": 0.0322, "2-4": 0.0124, "2-5": 0.0039, "2-6": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0249, "3-1": 0.0385, "3-2": 0.0298, "3-3": 0.0154, "3-4": 0.0059, "3-5": 0.0018, "4-0": 0.0089, "4-1": 0.0138, "4-2": 0.0107, "4-3": 0.0055, "4-4": 0.0021, "4-5": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0026, "5-1": 0.004, "5-2": 0.0031, "5-3": 0.0016, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0009, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3523, "draw": 0.2452, "away_win": 0.4025 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5723, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4277, "btts_yes": 0.6002, "btts_no": 0.3998, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2129, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2386 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.73, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 6.97 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.9, "MCR": 6.86, "ATR": 6.76, "GK": 7.02 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brentford vs Liverpool. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Brentford 2W-2D-6L vs Liverpool over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Igor Thiago, Florian Wirtz", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~51% possession expected (Yehor Yarmoliuk vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 0.78. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.433, "away_lambda": 1.547, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1135, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3523, "draw": 0.2452, "away_win": 0.4025 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4025, "fair_spread": -0.114, "fair_total": 2.98, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.433, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.547, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5723, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6002, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2129, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2386, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Thiago (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.4575, "probability": 0.3671, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.2296, "probability": 0.2051, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jannik Schuster (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2032, "probability": 0.1839, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.2051, "probability": 0.1854, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.98, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 859, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.7, "possession_home_pct": 49.1, "possession_away_pct": 50.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4025, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.11 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Brentford must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Igor Thiago against Jérémy Jacquet, Ronald Araújo in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Igor Thiago; bench watchlist: Dango Ouattara, Mikkel Damsgaard.", "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Florian Wirtz; bench watchlist: Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai, Hugo Ekitiké.", "Assist usage should flow through Jannik Schuster, Víctor Muñoz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Brentford is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Brentford wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brentford": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "player_id": 972421, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 170, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 13.042, "dispossessed": 0.4693, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0971, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1976, "expected_assists": 0.1397, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Lewis Koumas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1793, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1304, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0619, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.035, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1472, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0301, "expected_assists": 0.1304, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2364, "expected_assists": 0.4002, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.1278, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363242, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7701, "expected_assists": 0.1178, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.1845, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0909, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023945, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2327, "expected_assists": 0.1679, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2101, "combined_rank_score": 797.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 172.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.25, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1422.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7054, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Radoslav Kirilov", "ranking": 2096 }, { "player_name": "Zdravko Dimitrov", "ranking": 2097 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Vicente", "ranking": 2098 }, { "player_name": "Nahitan Nández", "ranking": 2099 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Cook", "ranking": 2100 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Copete", "ranking": 2102 }, { "player_name": "Diego Moreira", "ranking": 2103 }, { "player_name": "Chris Long", "ranking": 2104 }, { "player_name": "Richard Ríos", "ranking": 2105 }, { "player_name": "Abdel Rahim", "ranking": 2106 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0065, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brentford", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 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"others_margin": -0.038655 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7158, "tackles": 1.3708, "tackles_won": 0.8373, "clearances": 2.1866, "aerial_won": 0.7422, "total_shots": 0.9344, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 81.03, "total_pass": 27.8239, "accurate_pass": 21.4793, "duels_won": 3.0741, "total_long_balls": 3.9031, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1951, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5333, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9459, "crosses_total": 3.5196, "crosses_accurate": 1.0221, "touches": 47.0585, "possession_lost": 13.042, "dispossessed": 0.4693, "duels_lost": 4.5402, "aerial_lost": 1.4504, "total_contest": 1.8513, "won_contest": 0.5666, "ball_recovery": 3.7456, "challenges_lost": 0.1699, "fouls": 1.1659, "fouls_drawn": 0.97, "blocks": 0.2669, "goals": 0.0938, 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0.0322 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 0.3887, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134727 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.082987 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.063467 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.038823 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.023 } ], "others_margin": -0.039268 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1338183879852295, "model_output": 1.1338, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1519 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0703 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": -0.066, "total": 1.1338, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15189 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070288 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.04703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.032611 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.03229 } ], "others_margin": -0.066023 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.070546627044678, "model_output": 7.0705, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 7.0705, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.104197 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.053933 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027534 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015328 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01324 } ], "others_margin": 0.033915 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2316, "goals": 0.2424, "goal_rate": 0.2424, "shots_on_target": 0.6364, "total_shots": 1.6615, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "key_pass": 1.0311, "rating": 6.8354, "minutes": 80.38, "total_pass": 23.4283, "accurate_pass": 18.9893, "duels_won": 3.7252, "total_long_balls": 1.8826, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6623, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4073, "crosses_total": 2.861, "crosses_accurate": 0.4365, "touches": 41.5853, "possession_lost": 13.0252, "dispossessed": 0.9687, "duels_lost": 5.8536, "aerial_lost": 0.6889, "total_contest": 3.2097, "won_contest": 1.0203, "ball_recovery": 3.4725, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 1.2353, "fouls_drawn": 1.1117, "assists": 0.2001, "assist_rate": 0.2001, "interceptions": 0.2951, 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0.2518, "offsides": 0.2609, "ball_carries": 12.6658, "total_progression": 59.3002, "progressive_carries": 2.3044, "shots_off_target": 1.0251 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1822, "goals": 0.1899, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3106, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "key_pass": 1.0311, "rating": 6.8354, "minutes": 80.38, "total_pass": 23.4283, "accurate_pass": 18.9893, "duels_won": 3.7252, "total_long_balls": 1.8826, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6623, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4073, "crosses_total": 2.8655, "crosses_accurate": 0.4365, "touches": 41.5853, "possession_lost": 13.0252, "dispossessed": 0.9687, "duels_lost": 5.8536, "aerial_lost": 0.6889, "total_contest": 3.2097, "won_contest": 1.0203, "ball_recovery": 3.4725, 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}, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2316, "after": 0.1822 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1822, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3106, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "key_pass": 1.0311, "rating": 6.8354, "minutes": 80.38, "total_pass": 23.4283, "accurate_pass": 18.9893, "duels_won": 3.7252, "total_long_balls": 1.8826, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6623, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4073, "crosses_total": 2.8655, "crosses_accurate": 0.4365, "touches": 41.5853, "possession_lost": 13.0252, "dispossessed": 0.9687, "duels_lost": 5.8536, "aerial_lost": 0.6889, "total_contest": 3.2097, "won_contest": 1.0203, "ball_recovery": 3.4725, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 1.2424, "fouls_drawn": 1.1072, 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"bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3451, "xa_scale": 1.1378, "opponent_lambda": 1.547, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1822, "after": 0.2451 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0924, "after": 0.1051 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_rank": 1789.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2451, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3106, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "key_pass": 1.0311, "rating": 6.8354, "minutes": 80.38, "total_pass": 23.4283, "accurate_pass": 18.9893, "duels_won": 3.7252, "total_long_balls": 1.8826, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6623, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4073, "crosses_total": 2.8655, "crosses_accurate": 0.4365, "touches": 41.5853, "possession_lost": 13.0252, "dispossessed": 0.9687, "duels_lost": 5.8536, "aerial_lost": 0.6889, "total_contest": 3.2097, "won_contest": 1.0203, "ball_recovery": 3.4725, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 1.2424, "fouls_drawn": 1.1072, 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true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "scorer_weight": 0.2532, "squad_weight_total": 1.4802, "weight_share": 0.1711, "finishing_factor": 1.0332, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.46, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.46, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2451, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4985, "total_shots": 1.3106, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "key_pass": 1.0311, "rating": 6.8354, "minutes": 80.38, "total_pass": 23.4283, "accurate_pass": 18.9893, "duels_won": 3.7252, "total_long_balls": 1.8826, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6623, 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"Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023957, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "West Ham United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "expected_assists": 0.1973, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0463, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0819, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0095, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0463, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0819, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0463, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0819, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0819, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.0653, xG scale 1.3451, xA scale 1.1378, team xA 1.15 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "expected_assists": 0.0932, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.433, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0653, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0076, "team_expected_assists": 1.1464, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3451, "xa_scale": 1.1378, "opponent_lambda": 1.547, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0299, "after": 0.0402 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0819, "after": 0.0932 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "expected_assists": 0.0932, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2518, "fifa_rank": 1138.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "expected_assists": 0.0932, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0394, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0322, "squad_weight_total": 1.4802, "weight_share": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.46, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.46, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8676, "tackles": 1.7578, "tackles_won": 1.0671, "clearances": 2.8232, "aerial_won": 1.2183, "total_shots": 0.6027, "rating": 6.693, "minutes": 88.29, "total_pass": 38.2268, "accurate_pass": 28.6458, "duels_won": 5.2474, "total_long_balls": 6.4177, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6697, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7647, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9301, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7156, "crosses_total": 4.4374, "crosses_accurate": 1.4731, "touches": 64.8422, "possession_lost": 17.5021, "dispossessed": 0.3965, "duels_lost": 4.3254, "aerial_lost": 1.4913, "total_contest": 1.6664, "won_contest": 0.7537, "ball_recovery": 4.85, "challenges_lost": 0.3325, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.105, "blocks": 0.3804, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "expected_assists": 0.0932, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.1223, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 14.2938, "total_progression": 55.0224, "progressive_carries": 1.3449, "key_pass": 1.515, "shots_off_target": 0.41, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0394, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.089, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.089, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "provider_weight": 0.0746, "squad_weight_total": 1.1464, "weight_share": 0.065, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jannik Schuster", "weight": 0.254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.254, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1532, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "player_id": 576384, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 196, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7889, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 7.1457, "dispossessed": 0.3341, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0585, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0873, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0568, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0183, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.6023, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05997 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032749 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027538 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013808 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008707 } ], "others_margin": 0.002425 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78889799118042, "model_output": 6.7889, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0119, "total": 6.7889, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.015483 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.014783 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.014639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012183 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9792, "tackles": 1.3623, "tackles_won": 0.7337, "clearances": 5.583, "aerial_won": 2.6396, "total_shots": 0.6068, "rating": 6.7889, "minutes": 88.03, "total_pass": 39.7889, "accurate_pass": 33.6049, "duels_won": 4.6326, "total_long_balls": 3.366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9538, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8526, "crosses_total": 0.1232, "crosses_accurate": 0.0418, "touches": 53.3264, "possession_lost": 7.1457, "dispossessed": 0.3341, "duels_lost": 3.3863, "aerial_lost": 1.6373, "total_contest": 0.2101, "won_contest": 0.0578, "ball_recovery": 3.3381, "challenges_lost": 0.5182, "fouls": 0.7505, "fouls_drawn": 0.4458, "blocks": 0.6718, "goals": 0.1549, 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historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9792, "tackles": 1.3623, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 5.583, "aerial_won": 2.6396, "total_shots": 0.6096, "rating": 6.7889, "minutes": 88.03, "total_pass": 39.7889, "accurate_pass": 33.6049, "duels_won": 4.6326, "total_long_balls": 3.366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9538, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8526, "crosses_total": 0.1218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0418, "touches": 53.3264, "possession_lost": 7.1457, "dispossessed": 0.3341, "duels_lost": 3.3863, "aerial_lost": 1.6373, "total_contest": 0.2101, "won_contest": 0.0578, "ball_recovery": 3.3381, "challenges_lost": 0.5182, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4463, "blocks": 0.6718, "goals": 0.1531, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "shots_on_target": 0.2503, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9792, "tackles": 1.3623, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 5.583, "aerial_won": 2.6396, "total_shots": 0.6096, "rating": 6.7889, "minutes": 88.03, "total_pass": 39.7889, "accurate_pass": 33.6049, "duels_won": 4.6326, "total_long_balls": 3.366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9538, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8526, "crosses_total": 0.1218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0418, "touches": 53.3264, "possession_lost": 7.1457, "dispossessed": 0.3341, "duels_lost": 3.3863, "aerial_lost": 1.6373, "total_contest": 0.2101, "won_contest": 0.0578, "ball_recovery": 3.3381, "challenges_lost": 0.5182, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4463, "blocks": 0.6718, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "shots_on_target": 0.2503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0649, "ball_carries": 14.2407, "total_progression": 66.2744, "progressive_carries": 1.1805, "key_pass": 0.3741, "shots_off_target": 0.3593, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.0653, xG scale 1.3451, xA scale 1.1378, team xA 1.15 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9792, "tackles": 1.3623, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 5.583, "aerial_won": 2.6396, "total_shots": 0.6096, "rating": 6.7889, "minutes": 88.03, "total_pass": 39.7889, "accurate_pass": 33.6049, "duels_won": 4.6326, "total_long_balls": 3.366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9538, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8526, "crosses_total": 0.1218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0418, "touches": 53.3264, "possession_lost": 7.1457, "dispossessed": 0.3341, "duels_lost": 3.3863, "aerial_lost": 1.6373, "total_contest": 0.2101, "won_contest": 0.0578, "ball_recovery": 3.3381, "challenges_lost": 0.5182, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4463, "blocks": 0.6718, 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"team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3451, "xa_scale": 1.1378, "opponent_lambda": 1.547, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0435, "after": 0.0585 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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2163, "fifa_rank": 1412.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9792, "tackles": 1.3623, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 5.583, "aerial_won": 2.6396, "total_shots": 0.6096, "rating": 6.7889, "minutes": 88.03, "total_pass": 39.7889, "accurate_pass": 33.6049, "duels_won": 4.6326, "total_long_balls": 3.366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9538, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8526, "crosses_total": 0.1218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0418, "touches": 53.3264, "possession_lost": 7.1457, "dispossessed": 0.3341, "duels_lost": 3.3863, "aerial_lost": 1.6373, "total_contest": 0.2101, "won_contest": 0.0578, "ball_recovery": 3.3381, "challenges_lost": 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true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0568, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "scorer_weight": 0.0731, "squad_weight_total": 1.4802, "weight_share": 0.0494, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.46, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.46, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9792, "tackles": 1.3623, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 5.583, "aerial_won": 2.6396, "total_shots": 0.6096, "rating": 6.7889, "minutes": 88.03, "total_pass": 39.7889, "accurate_pass": 33.6049, "duels_won": 4.6326, "total_long_balls": 3.366, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9538, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3152, 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0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 6.7925, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039808 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023606 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015651 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.014616 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013545 } ], "others_margin": -0.020875 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0210, quality 0.631)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8076, "tackles": 1.1344, "tackles_won": 0.7012, "clearances": 6.3545, "aerial_won": 3.0105, "total_shots": 0.536, "rating": 6.7925, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 27.7485, "accurate_pass": 22.3499, "duels_won": 3.5174, "total_long_balls": 4.0751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7047, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5246, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8251, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0772, "possession_lost": 5.6854, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0334, "aerial_lost": 2.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.063, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7047, "fouls_drawn": 0.6241, "blocks": 2.0926, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3373, "assist_rate": 0.3373, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1785, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3373, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7116, "total_progression": 26.8667, "progressive_carries": 0.3373, "key_pass": 0.3373, "shots_off_target": 0.536 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 20000000, "quality_factor": 0.6311, "boost_factor": 1.021, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8076, "tackles": 1.1344, "tackles_won": 0.7012, "clearances": 6.3545, "aerial_won": 3.0105, "total_shots": 0.536, "rating": 6.7925, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 27.7485, "accurate_pass": 22.3499, "duels_won": 3.5174, "total_long_balls": 4.0751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7047, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5246, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8251, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0772, "possession_lost": 5.6854, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0334, "aerial_lost": 2.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.063, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7047, "fouls_drawn": 0.6241, "blocks": 2.0926, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3373, "assist_rate": 0.3373, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1785, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3373, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7116, "total_progression": 26.8667, "progressive_carries": 0.3373, "key_pass": 0.3373, "shots_off_target": 0.536 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8076, "tackles": 1.1344, "tackles_won": 0.7012, "clearances": 6.3545, "aerial_won": 3.0105, "total_shots": 0.536, "rating": 6.7925, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 27.7485, "accurate_pass": 22.3499, "duels_won": 3.5174, "total_long_balls": 4.0751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7047, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5246, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8251, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0772, "possession_lost": 5.6854, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0334, "aerial_lost": 2.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.063, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7047, "fouls_drawn": 0.6241, "blocks": 2.0926, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3373, "assist_rate": 0.3373, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1785, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3373, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7116, "total_progression": 26.8667, "progressive_carries": 0.3373, "key_pass": 0.3373, "shots_off_target": 0.536, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8076, "tackles": 1.1344, "tackles_won": 0.7012, "clearances": 6.3545, "aerial_won": 3.0105, "total_shots": 0.536, "rating": 6.7925, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 27.7485, "accurate_pass": 22.3499, "duels_won": 3.5174, "total_long_balls": 4.0751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7047, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5246, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8251, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0772, "possession_lost": 5.6854, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0334, "aerial_lost": 2.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.063, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7047, "fouls_drawn": 0.6241, "blocks": 2.0926, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3373, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1785, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3373, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7116, "total_progression": 26.8667, "progressive_carries": 0.3373, "key_pass": 0.3373, "shots_off_target": 0.536, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.0653, xG scale 1.3451, xA scale 1.1378, team xA 1.15 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8076, "tackles": 1.1344, "tackles_won": 0.7012, "clearances": 6.3545, "aerial_won": 3.0105, "total_shots": 0.536, "rating": 6.7925, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 27.7485, "accurate_pass": 22.3499, "duels_won": 3.5174, "total_long_balls": 4.0751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7047, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5246, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8251, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0772, "possession_lost": 5.6854, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0334, "aerial_lost": 2.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.063, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7047, "fouls_drawn": 0.6241, "blocks": 2.0926, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3373, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2032, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3373, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.7116, "total_progression": 26.8667, "progressive_carries": 0.3373, "key_pass": 0.3373, "shots_off_target": 0.536, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.433, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0653, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0076, "team_expected_assists": 1.1464, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3451, "xa_scale": 1.1378, "opponent_lambda": 1.547, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1785, "after": 0.2032 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4802, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.46, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.46, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8076, "tackles": 1.1344, "tackles_won": 0.7012, "clearances": 6.3545, "aerial_won": 3.0105, "total_shots": 0.536, "rating": 6.7925, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 27.7485, "accurate_pass": 22.3499, "duels_won": 3.5174, "total_long_balls": 4.0751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7047, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5246, 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"opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023945, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 727, "combined_rank_score": 351.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 172.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.25, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 531.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.664, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Michael Kayode", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kwak Yun-Ho", "ranking": 722 }, { "player_name": "Ju-seong Uh", "ranking": 723 }, { "player_name": "Beom-kyeong Choi", "ranking": 724 }, { "player_name": "Song-hun Shin", "ranking": 725 }, { "player_name": "Kobbie Mainoo", "ranking": 726 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sava Petrov", "ranking": 728 }, { "player_name": "Brayan Rovira", "ranking": 729 }, { "player_name": "José Carabalí", "ranking": 730 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Gómez", "ranking": 731 }, { "player_name": "Jong-Min Park", "ranking": 732 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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"decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2983 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1494 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1291 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1261 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0622 } ], "others": -0.1606, "total": 0.8342, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.244044 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.149023 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130046 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.126841 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06458 } ], "others_margin": -0.17616 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5298590660095215, "model_output": 0.5299, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0604 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.5299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019602 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018639 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.009362 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008835 } ], "others_margin": -0.025094 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664013862609863, "model_output": 6.664, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 6.664, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044144 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.022678 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016016 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013413 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008661 } ], "others_margin": -0.015776 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0232, "tackles": 1.5974, "tackles_won": 1.0116, "clearances": 2.1498, "aerial_won": 0.8413, "total_shots": 0.5344, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 23.8883, "accurate_pass": 19.6212, "duels_won": 4.2442, "total_long_balls": 1.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8044, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2523, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1003, "crosses_total": 1.4078, "crosses_accurate": 0.2733, "touches": 46.9979, "possession_lost": 13.0263, "dispossessed": 0.4796, "duels_lost": 4.4977, "aerial_lost": 0.9261, "total_contest": 2.42, "won_contest": 1.1595, "ball_recovery": 3.5819, "challenges_lost": 0.8202, "fouls": 1.0608, "fouls_drawn": 0.9364, "blocks": 0.7822, "goals": 0.1047, "goal_rate": 0.1047, "assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 9.8433, "total_progression": 49.0906, "progressive_carries": 1.2393, "key_pass": 0.6331, "shots_off_target": 0.4008 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 39000000, "quality_factor": 0.7754, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.5974, "tackles_won": 1.0075, "clearances": 2.1498, "aerial_won": 0.8413, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 23.8883, "accurate_pass": 19.6212, "duels_won": 4.2442, "total_long_balls": 1.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8044, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2523, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1003, "crosses_total": 1.4127, "crosses_accurate": 0.2733, "touches": 46.9979, "possession_lost": 13.0263, "dispossessed": 0.4796, "duels_lost": 4.4977, "aerial_lost": 0.9261, "total_contest": 2.42, "won_contest": 1.1595, "ball_recovery": 3.5819, "challenges_lost": 0.8202, "fouls": 1.0603, "fouls_drawn": 0.9451, "blocks": 0.7822, "goals": 0.1079, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "assists": 0.0251, "assist_rate": 0.0251, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 9.8433, "total_progression": 49.0906, "progressive_carries": 1.2393, "key_pass": 0.6331, "shots_off_target": 0.4008 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0081, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9046, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5344, "after": 0.5505 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9364, "after": 0.9451 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.5974, "tackles_won": 1.0075, "clearances": 2.1498, "aerial_won": 0.8413, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 23.8883, "accurate_pass": 19.6212, "duels_won": 4.2442, "total_long_balls": 1.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8044, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2523, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1003, "crosses_total": 1.4127, "crosses_accurate": 0.2733, "touches": 46.9979, "possession_lost": 13.0263, "dispossessed": 0.4796, "duels_lost": 4.4977, "aerial_lost": 0.9261, "total_contest": 2.42, "won_contest": 1.1595, "ball_recovery": 3.5819, "challenges_lost": 0.8202, "fouls": 1.0603, "fouls_drawn": 0.9451, "blocks": 0.7822, "goals": 0.1079, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.5974, "tackles_won": 1.0075, "clearances": 2.1498, "aerial_won": 0.8413, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 23.8883, "accurate_pass": 19.6212, "duels_won": 4.2442, "total_long_balls": 1.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8044, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2523, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1003, "crosses_total": 1.4127, "crosses_accurate": 0.2733, "touches": 46.9979, "possession_lost": 13.0263, "dispossessed": 0.4796, "duels_lost": 4.4977, "aerial_lost": 0.9261, "total_contest": 2.42, "won_contest": 1.1595, "ball_recovery": 3.5819, "challenges_lost": 0.8202, "fouls": 1.0603, "fouls_drawn": 0.9451, "blocks": 0.7822, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0251, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 9.8433, "total_progression": 49.0906, "progressive_carries": 1.2393, "key_pass": 0.6331, "shots_off_target": 0.4008, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.0653, xG scale 1.3451, xA scale 1.1378, team xA 1.15 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.5974, "tackles_won": 1.0075, "clearances": 2.1498, "aerial_won": 0.8413, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 23.8883, "accurate_pass": 19.6212, "duels_won": 4.2442, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.433, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0653, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0076, "team_expected_assists": 1.1464, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3451, "xa_scale": 1.1378, "opponent_lambda": 1.547, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0716, "after": 0.0963 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0596, "after": 0.0678 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.5974, "tackles_won": 1.0075, "clearances": 2.1498, "aerial_won": 0.8413, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 23.8883, "accurate_pass": 19.6212, "duels_won": 4.2442, "total_long_balls": 1.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8044, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2523, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1003, "crosses_total": 1.4127, "crosses_accurate": 0.2733, "touches": 46.9979, "possession_lost": 13.0263, "dispossessed": 0.4796, "duels_lost": 4.4977, "aerial_lost": 0.9261, "total_contest": 2.42, "won_contest": 1.1595, "ball_recovery": 3.5819, "challenges_lost": 0.8202, "fouls": 1.0603, "fouls_drawn": 0.9451, "blocks": 0.7822, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0251, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "expected_assists": 0.0678, 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projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.5974, "tackles_won": 1.0075, "clearances": 2.1498, "aerial_won": 0.8413, "total_shots": 0.5505, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 23.8883, "accurate_pass": 19.6212, "duels_won": 4.2442, "total_long_balls": 1.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8044, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2523, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1003, "crosses_total": 1.4127, "crosses_accurate": 0.2733, "touches": 46.9979, "possession_lost": 13.0263, "dispossessed": 0.4796, "duels_lost": 4.4977, "aerial_lost": 0.9261, "total_contest": 2.42, "won_contest": 1.1595, "ball_recovery": 3.5819, "challenges_lost": 0.8202, "fouls": 1.0603, "fouls_drawn": 0.9451, "blocks": 0.7822, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0251, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.1404, "ball_carries": 9.8433, "total_progression": 49.0906, "progressive_carries": 1.2393, "key_pass": 0.6331, "shots_off_target": 0.4008, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0918, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0656, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0656, "assist_rate": 0.0251, "provider_weight": 0.0542, "squad_weight_total": 1.1464, "weight_share": 0.0473, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jannik Schuster", "weight": 0.254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.254, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1532, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "player_id": 827362, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 46, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5041, "shots_faced": 14.7, "expected_saves": 3.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": 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the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9242, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.0154, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5041, "shots_faced": 14.3, "expected_saves": 3.5, "high_pressure_saves": 1.2, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.5041 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5041, "shots_faced": 14.3, "expected_saves": 3.5, "high_pressure_saves": 1.2, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.0653, xG scale 1.3451, xA scale 1.1378, team xA 1.15 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5041, "shots_faced": 14.7, "expected_saves": 3.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.433, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0653, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0076, "team_expected_assists": 1.1464, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3451, "xa_scale": 1.1378, "opponent_lambda": 1.547, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.3, "after": 14.7 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.5, "after": 3.6 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.2, "after": 1.24 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5041, "shots_faced": 14.7, "expected_saves": 3.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 827, "fifa_rank": 682.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5041, "shots_faced": 14.7, "expected_saves": 3.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4802, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.46, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.46, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9204, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.6478, "accurate_pass": 22.6212, "total_long_balls": 18.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 6.5833, "touches": 45.8798, "clearances": 1.5799, "ball_recovery": 8.626, "high_claims": 0.839, "punches": 1.1228, "aerial_won": 0.3535, "sweeper_actions": 0.6671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6671, "saves_inside_box": 2.5316, "possession_lost": 12.1741, "duels_won": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.0373, "won_contest": 0.0373, "fouls": 0.0552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0153, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6655, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5041, "shots_faced": 14.7, "expected_saves": 3.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz, Víctor Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.1464, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jannik Schuster", "weight": 0.254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.254, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1532, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] }, "Igor Thiago": { "player_id": 1016907, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 191, "market_value": 68000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4575, "goal_rate": 0.3422, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.768, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.2079, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4292, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0293, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.22, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jérémy Jacquet, Ronald Araújo", "opponent_faced": "Jérémy Jacquet, Ronald Araújo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3671, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0653, "finishing_factor": 1.0054, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0689, "expected_assists": 0.1283, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7203, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1067, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4983, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8039, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363242, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0014, "expected_assists": 0.083, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, 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"home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1068, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1885, "expected_assists": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1765 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0905 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0383, "total": 0.8585, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.232824 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.101215 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.037542 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.036708 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026778 } ], "others_margin": -0.043719 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.767965793609619, "model_output": 6.768, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0017, "total": 6.768, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04663 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021056 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020994 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.019417 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.014224 } ], "others_margin": 0.001577 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.868)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3304, "goals": 0.3353, "goal_rate": 0.3353, "shots_on_target": 0.7738, "total_shots": 2.1242, "expected_assists": 0.0593, "key_pass": 0.868, "rating": 6.768, "minutes": 89.06, "total_pass": 19.2997, "accurate_pass": 14.028, "duels_won": 5.2978, "total_long_balls": 0.8611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4012, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.017, "crosses_total": 0.8531, "crosses_accurate": 0.2257, "touches": 34.9121, "possession_lost": 11.2079, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 9.1056, "aerial_lost": 5.1324, "total_contest": 1.4975, "won_contest": 0.6033, "ball_recovery": 2.5211, "challenges_lost": 0.3429, "fouls": 1.949, "fouls_drawn": 0.6428, "assists": 0.0022, "assist_rate": 0.0022, "interceptions": 0.1433, "tackles_won": 0.4927, "tackles": 0.9446, "clearances": 1.1986, "blocks": 0.3538, "big_chances_created": 0.0603, "big_chances_missed": 0.6625, "xgot": 0.31, "offsides": 0.3383, "ball_carries": 6.5877, "total_progression": 1.2066, "progressive_carries": 0.684, "shots_off_target": 1.3504 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 68000000, "quality_factor": 0.8677, "boost_factor": 1.0111, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0084)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3304, "goals": 0.3325, "goal_rate": 0.3325, "shots_on_target": 0.776, "total_shots": 2.1368, "expected_assists": 0.0593, "key_pass": 0.868, "rating": 6.768, "minutes": 89.06, "total_pass": 19.2997, "accurate_pass": 14.028, "duels_won": 5.2978, "total_long_balls": 0.8611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4012, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.017, 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"rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (1 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.5942, "goals_prevented": -0.0162, "rating": 7.1294, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 41.0, "accurate_pass": 30.0, "total_long_balls": 23.0, "accurate_long_balls": 12.0, "touches": 48.0, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 7.0, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.0, "possession_lost": 11.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 12.0, "save_contribution": -0.7175, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8846, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 23.0, "passValueNormalized": 0.19, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 26.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.594167947769165, "model_output": 2.5942, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1815 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0902 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0376 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 2.5942, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0637 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.033245 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015091 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.014809 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014419 } ], "others_margin": -0.013072 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.016185801476240158, "model_output": -0.0162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0524 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0103, "total": -0.0162, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052376 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.04001 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.014784 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013839 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.011838 } ], "others_margin": 0.010454 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.129414081573486, "model_output": 7.1294, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1064 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 7.1294, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.106351 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019737 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017464 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.016435 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.016102 } ], "others_margin": 0.020994 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5503, "goals_prevented": -0.0159, "rating": 7.1294, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 40.3071, "accurate_pass": 29.493, "total_long_balls": 22.6113, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7972, "touches": 47.1888, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.8817, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 10.8141, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 25.5606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6113 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9831, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 6.2119, "accurate_pass": 4.5453, "total_long_balls": 3.4847, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8181, "touches": 7.2724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0606, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.1515, "possession_lost": 1.6666, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 6.2119, "accurate_pass": 4.5453, "total_long_balls": 3.4847, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8181, "touches": 7.2724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0606, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.1515, "possession_lost": 1.6666, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 6.2119, "accurate_pass": 4.5453, "total_long_balls": 3.4847, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8181, "touches": 7.2724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0606, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.1515, "possession_lost": 1.6666, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 6.2119, "accurate_pass": 4.5453, "total_long_balls": 3.4847, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8181, "touches": 7.2724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0606, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.1515, "possession_lost": 1.6666, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2972, "fifa_rank": 1585.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Sepp van den Berg": { "player_id": 924378, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 192, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9428, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1819, "expected_assists": 0.484, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023945, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3111, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025022, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024018, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 8, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15408501, "match_date": "2026-03-16", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": 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"contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.3359, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.232061 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045645 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.029955 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013142 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.012963 } ], "others_margin": -0.008196 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.942767143249512, "model_output": 6.9428, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0615, "total": 6.9428, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.049021 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.039768 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.024379 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.018924 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013305 } ], "others_margin": 0.061424 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3859, "tackles": 0.4968, "tackles_won": 0.2899, "clearances": 2.0551, "aerial_won": 1.468, "total_shots": 0.3391, "rating": 6.9428, "minutes": 23.34, "total_pass": 41.3028, "accurate_pass": 36.3049, "duels_won": 5.832, "total_long_balls": 2.7448, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1833, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2714, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6027, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5497, "possession_lost": 5.8241, "dispossessed": 0.1601, "duels_lost": 3.4674, "aerial_lost": 2.6074, "total_contest": 0.0156, "won_contest": 0.0156, "ball_recovery": 2.8245, "challenges_lost": 0.2846, "fouls": 0.4641, "fouls_drawn": 0.3154, "blocks": 0.8517, "goals": 0.0, 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"appearance_probability": 0.353, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023945, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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"Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2397, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1159, "combined_rank_score": 511.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 151.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3143, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 872.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7708, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nathan Collins", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vitalie Damașcan", "ranking": 1154 }, { "player_name": "Vlad Chiricheş", "ranking": 1155 }, { "player_name": "Emil Krafth", "ranking": 1156 }, { "player_name": "Sidny Lopes Cabral", "ranking": 1157 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Christensen", "ranking": 1158 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chris Richards", "ranking": 1160 }, { "player_name": "Andriy Lunin", "ranking": 1161 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 1162 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 1163 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 1164 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", 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"data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.65159379857936, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.239, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0072, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brentford", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (38 historical appearances) to 14.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4544, "tackles": 0.5217, "tackles_won": 0.3348, "clearances": 1.981, "aerial_won": 0.8859, "total_shots": 0.556, "rating": 6.7708, "minutes": 26.57, "total_pass": 23.8649, "accurate_pass": 18.6385, "duels_won": 2.3887, 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} }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8859407901763916, "model_output": 0.8859, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8118 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1629 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0538 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0387 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.8859, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.890108 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.253132 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.082284 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.065803 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044754 } ], "others_margin": 0.002895 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5559627413749695, "model_output": 0.556, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2381 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2219 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.049, "total": 0.556, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.238101 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.221881 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.017703 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.015576 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.015434 } ], "others_margin": 0.048969 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7708306312561035, "model_output": 6.7708, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 6.7708, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026696 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023502 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019164 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.015284 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01477 } ], "others_margin": 0.001583 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4577, "tackles": 0.5254, "tackles_won": 0.3372, "clearances": 1.9953, "aerial_won": 0.8923, "total_shots": 0.56, "rating": 6.7708, "minutes": 26.57, "total_pass": 24.0367, "accurate_pass": 18.7727, "duels_won": 2.4059, "total_long_balls": 2.5233, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0659, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5513, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0144, "possession_lost": 6.2712, "dispossessed": 0.2829, "duels_lost": 0.9572, "aerial_lost": 0.3915, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3061, "challenges_lost": 0.2829, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086142 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.006275 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.00583 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.005719 } ], "others_margin": -0.020631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.5025, "total_contest": 1.3653, "won_contest": 0.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.2229, "fouls": 1.6641, "fouls_drawn": 0.7021, "blocks": 0.1311, "big_chances_created": 0.1115, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 9.3725, "total_progression": 25.688, "progressive_carries": 0.6056, "shots_off_target": 0.4031 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.043, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0355)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5502, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0408, "shots_on_target": 0.1054, "total_shots": 0.5101, "rating": 6.7372, "minutes": 24.59, "total_pass": 28.4712, "accurate_pass": 22.8663, "duels_won": 5.3086, "total_long_balls": 2.2724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9881, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3855, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4809, "crosses_total": 0.2448, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.9434, "possession_lost": 8.723, "dispossessed": 1.2587, "duels_lost": 3.9862, "aerial_won": 0.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6677, "interceptions": 1.0178, "tackles_won": 1.554, "tackles": 2.9575, "clearances": 1.5025, "total_contest": 1.3653, "won_contest": 0.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.2229, "fouls": 1.6212, "fouls_drawn": 0.6934, "blocks": 0.1311, "big_chances_created": 0.1115, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 9.3725, "total_progression": 25.688, "progressive_carries": 0.6056, "shots_off_target": 0.4031 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0355, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2732, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6641, "after": 1.6212 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.5944, "after": 1.554 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7021, "after": 0.6934 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5256, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "assists": 0.0508, "assist_rate": 0.0508, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goals": 0.039, "goal_rate": 0.039, "shots_on_target": 0.1007, "total_shots": 0.4873, "rating": 6.7372, "minutes": 23.49, "total_pass": 27.1969, "accurate_pass": 21.8429, "duels_won": 5.071, "total_long_balls": 2.1707, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9439, "total_own_half_passes": 11.3102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9207, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8867, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9223, "crosses_total": 0.2338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.0661, "possession_lost": 8.3326, "dispossessed": 1.2587, "duels_lost": 3.8078, "aerial_won": 0.6759, "aerial_lost": 0.6677, "interceptions": 0.9722, 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"duels_won": 5.071, "total_long_balls": 2.1707, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9439, "total_own_half_passes": 11.3102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9207, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8867, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9223, "crosses_total": 0.2338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.0661, "possession_lost": 8.3326, "dispossessed": 1.2587, "duels_lost": 3.8078, "aerial_won": 0.6759, "aerial_lost": 0.6677, "interceptions": 0.9722, "tackles_won": 1.4844, "tackles": 2.8251, "clearances": 1.4353, "total_contest": 1.3042, "won_contest": 0.8991, "challenges_lost": 0.2229, "fouls": 1.5486, "fouls_drawn": 0.6624, "blocks": 0.1252, "big_chances_created": 0.1065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 8.953, "total_progression": 24.5383, "progressive_carries": 0.5785, "shots_off_target": 0.3851, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5256, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0508, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.039, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1007, "total_shots": 0.4873, "rating": 6.7372, "minutes": 23.49, "total_pass": 27.1969, "accurate_pass": 21.8429, "duels_won": 5.071, "total_long_balls": 2.1707, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9439, "total_own_half_passes": 11.3102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9207, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8867, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9223, "crosses_total": 0.2338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.0661, "possession_lost": 8.3326, "dispossessed": 1.2587, "duels_lost": 3.8078, "aerial_won": 0.6759, "aerial_lost": 0.6677, "interceptions": 0.9722, "tackles_won": 1.4844, "tackles": 2.8251, "clearances": 1.4353, "total_contest": 1.3042, "won_contest": 0.8991, "challenges_lost": 0.2229, "fouls": 1.5486, "fouls_drawn": 0.6624, "blocks": 0.1252, "big_chances_created": 0.1065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 8.953, "total_progression": 24.5383, "progressive_carries": 0.5785, "shots_off_target": 0.3851, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.338, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5256, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0508, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.039, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1007, "total_shots": 0.4873, "rating": 6.7372, "minutes": 23.49, "total_pass": 27.1969, "accurate_pass": 21.8429, "duels_won": 5.071, "total_long_balls": 2.1707, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9439, "total_own_half_passes": 11.3102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9207, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8867, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9223, "crosses_total": 0.2338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.0661, "possession_lost": 8.3326, "dispossessed": 1.2587, "duels_lost": 3.8078, "aerial_won": 0.6759, "aerial_lost": 0.6677, "interceptions": 0.9722, "tackles_won": 1.4844, "tackles": 2.8251, "clearances": 1.4353, "total_contest": 1.3042, "won_contest": 0.8991, "challenges_lost": 0.2229, "fouls": 1.5486, "fouls_drawn": 0.6624, "blocks": 0.1252, "big_chances_created": 0.1065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 8.953, "total_progression": 24.5383, "progressive_carries": 0.5785, "shots_off_target": 0.3851, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1027, "fifa_rank": 522.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Mikkel Damsgaard": { "player_id": 907072, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 180, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.042, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0327, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.3531, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 6, 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"importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3804 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.7117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.380409 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.085372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041708 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.022566 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.02202 } ], "others_margin": -0.029958 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.021188735961914, "model_output": 7.0212, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1343 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0767 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0523, "total": 7.0212, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.134309 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02871 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014454 } ], "others_margin": 0.052266 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.74, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "assists": 0.0853, "assist_rate": 0.0853, "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.1498, "total_shots": 0.7168, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 20.95, "total_pass": 13.0899, "accurate_pass": 10.2301, "duels_won": 1.6598, "total_long_balls": 1.1084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4188, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4984, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6795, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5506, "crosses_total": 1.4691, "crosses_accurate": 0.4658, "touches": 19.0432, "possession_lost": 5.1103, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.7461, "aerial_won": 0.6539, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.455, "tackles_won": 0.4018, "tackles": 0.6274, "clearances": 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5242, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9132, 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80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1072, "combined_rank_score": 482.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 884.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7565, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin Schade", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2348 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 0.3603, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428812 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043481 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.039146 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.033264 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.028138 } ], "others_margin": -0.052603 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756495475769043, "model_output": 6.7565, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 6.7565, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065107 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01601 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013355 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012328 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01199 } ], "others_margin": 0.000917 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1556, "goals": 0.2039, "goal_rate": 0.2039, "shots_on_target": 0.4352, "total_shots": 1.0612, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.7565, "minutes": 30.8, "total_pass": 7.7401, "accurate_pass": 5.435, "duels_won": 3.4816, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8367, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5316, "crosses_total": 0.3339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8478, "possession_lost": 7.4081, "dispossessed": 1.2355, "duels_lost": 7.524, "aerial_lost": 2.2461, "total_contest": 2.0713, "won_contest": 0.3339, "ball_recovery": 1.5193, "challenges_lost": 0.5677, "fouls": 2.0212, "fouls_drawn": 1.0106, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2839, "tackles_won": 0.6678, 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0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0787, "crosses_total": 0.2884, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4308, "possession_lost": 6.4581, "dispossessed": 1.2355, "duels_lost": 6.5591, "aerial_lost": 2.2461, "total_contest": 1.8057, "won_contest": 0.2911, "ball_recovery": 1.3245, "challenges_lost": 0.5677, "fouls": 1.7468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8783, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2465, "tackles_won": 0.5837, "tackles": 1.0771, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2145, "total_progression": 29.5385, "progressive_carries": 1.4286, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.366, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1775, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3801, "total_shots": 0.9278, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.3174, "rating": 6.7565, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 6.7475, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 3.0351, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0787, "crosses_total": 0.2884, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4308, "possession_lost": 6.4581, "dispossessed": 1.2355, "duels_lost": 6.5591, "aerial_lost": 2.2461, "total_contest": 1.8057, "won_contest": 0.2911, "ball_recovery": 1.3245, "challenges_lost": 0.5677, "fouls": 1.7468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8783, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2465, "tackles_won": 0.5837, "tackles": 1.0771, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 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"is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 177, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0768, "goal_rate": 0.1282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.036, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 28, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 7.5947, "dispossessed": 0.2596, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0235, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 42, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1857, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023945, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "West 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"source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rasmus Højlund", "ranking": 1639 }, { "player_name": "Sabit James Ngor", "ranking": 1640 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Beier", "ranking": 1641 }, { "player_name": "Chris Wood", "ranking": 1642 }, { "player_name": "Andrew Robertson", "ranking": 1643 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 }, { "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking": 1648 }, { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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0.0448, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.0448, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.309946 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.140279 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.095816 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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-0.0205, "total": 6.6988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052266 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015705 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.01258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010589 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009146 } ], "others_margin": -0.020458 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.1015, "shots_on_target": 0.2542, "total_shots": 0.6606, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.366, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 7.6035, "accurate_pass": 5.1163, "duels_won": 2.9439, "total_long_balls": 0.7747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4128, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4365, "crosses_total": 1.2944, "crosses_accurate": 0.275, "touches": 16.1513, "possession_lost": 5.977, "dispossessed": 0.2596, "duels_lost": 2.7582, "aerial_lost": 0.8513, "total_contest": 1.822, "won_contest": 0.9643, "ball_recovery": 1.7389, "challenges_lost": 0.2487, "fouls": 0.5408, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.5436, 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{ "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0387, "total": 0.6549, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548022 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.041202 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.037062 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.030993 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.022935 } ], "others_margin": -0.038757 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.044795192778110504, "model_output": 0.0448, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2551 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": 0.0045, "total": 0.3629, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.476104 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086097 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073627 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.029946 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.02486 } ], "others_margin": 0.012443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.698846340179443, "model_output": 6.6988, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 6.6988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052266 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015705 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.01258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010589 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009146 } ], "others_margin": -0.020458 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.1015, "shots_on_target": 0.2542, "total_shots": 0.6606, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.366, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 7.6035, "accurate_pass": 5.1163, "duels_won": 2.9439, "total_long_balls": 0.7747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4128, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4365, "crosses_total": 1.2944, "crosses_accurate": 0.275, "touches": 16.1513, "possession_lost": 5.977, "dispossessed": 0.2596, "duels_lost": 2.7582, "aerial_lost": 0.8513, "total_contest": 1.822, "won_contest": 0.9643, "ball_recovery": 1.7389, "challenges_lost": 0.2487, "fouls": 0.5408, "fouls_drawn": 0.4702, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1953, "tackles_won": 0.5436, "tackles": 0.7939, "clearances": 0.8656, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2245, "big_chances_missed": 0.149, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6611, "total_progression": 33.0233, "progressive_carries": 0.9541, "shots_off_target": 0.4063 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0055)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.1009, "goal_rate": 0.1009, "shots_on_target": 0.2528, "total_shots": 0.6608, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "key_pass": 0.366, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 7.6035, "accurate_pass": 5.1163, "duels_won": 2.9439, "total_long_balls": 0.7747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4128, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4365, "crosses_total": 1.2922, 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"possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0523, "total": 7.0212, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.134309 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02871 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014454 } ], "others_margin": 0.052266 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.74, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "assists": 0.0853, "assist_rate": 0.0853, "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.1498, "total_shots": 0.7168, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 20.95, "total_pass": 13.0899, "accurate_pass": 10.2301, "duels_won": 1.6598, "total_long_balls": 1.1084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4188, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4984, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6795, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5506, "crosses_total": 1.4691, "crosses_accurate": 0.4658, "touches": 19.0432, "possession_lost": 5.1103, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.7461, "aerial_won": 0.6539, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.455, "tackles_won": 0.4018, "tackles": 0.6274, "clearances": 0.1076, "total_contest": 0.5788, "won_contest": 0.225, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.1955, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2565, "big_chances_missed": 0.1608, "xgot": 0.0524, "ball_carries": 4.8648, "total_progression": 18.2444, "progressive_carries": 0.599, "shots_off_target": 0.567 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0045)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.74, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "assists": 0.0849, "assist_rate": 0.0849, "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "shots_on_target": 0.1503, "total_shots": 0.7158, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 20.95, "total_pass": 13.0899, "accurate_pass": 10.2301, "duels_won": 1.6598, "total_long_balls": 1.1084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4188, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4984, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6795, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5506, "crosses_total": 1.4718, "crosses_accurate": 0.4658, "touches": 19.0432, "possession_lost": 5.1103, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.7461, "aerial_won": 0.6539, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4529, "tackles_won": 0.4012, "tackles": 0.6274, "clearances": 0.1076, "total_contest": 0.5788, "won_contest": 0.225, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.2209, "fouls_drawn": 0.1946, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2565, "big_chances_missed": 0.1608, "xgot": 0.0524, "ball_carries": 4.8648, "total_progression": 18.2444, "progressive_carries": 0.599, "shots_off_target": 0.567 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0045, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2328, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 18.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6577, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assists": 0.0755, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.6375, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, "total_long_balls": 0.9851, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3722, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8221, "crosses_total": 1.3081, "crosses_accurate": 0.414, "touches": 16.9253, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.5519, "aerial_won": 0.5812, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles_won": 0.3566, "tackles": 0.5576, "clearances": 0.0956, "total_contest": 0.5144, "won_contest": 0.2, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.1963, "fouls_drawn": 0.173, "blocks": 0.1482, "big_chances_created": 0.228, "big_chances_missed": 0.1429, "xgot": 0.0466, "ball_carries": 4.3238, "total_progression": 16.2153, "progressive_carries": 0.5324, "shots_off_target": 0.5039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.62, "projection_minutes": 20.95, "minutes_scale": 0.8888, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6577, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assists": 0.0755, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.6375, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, "total_long_balls": 0.9851, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3722, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8221, "crosses_total": 1.3081, "crosses_accurate": 0.414, "touches": 16.9253, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.5519, "aerial_won": 0.5812, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles_won": 0.3566, "tackles": 0.5576, "clearances": 0.0956, "total_contest": 0.5144, "won_contest": 0.2, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.1963, "fouls_drawn": 0.173, "blocks": 0.1482, "big_chances_created": 0.228, "big_chances_missed": 0.1429, "xgot": 0.0466, "ball_carries": 4.3238, "total_progression": 16.2153, "progressive_carries": 0.5324, "shots_off_target": 0.5039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6577, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.6375, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, "total_long_balls": 0.9851, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3722, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8221, "crosses_total": 1.3081, "crosses_accurate": 0.414, "touches": 16.9253, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.5519, "aerial_won": 0.5812, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles_won": 0.3566, "tackles": 0.5576, "clearances": 0.0956, "total_contest": 0.5144, "won_contest": 0.2, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.1963, "fouls_drawn": 0.173, "blocks": 0.1482, "big_chances_created": 0.228, "big_chances_missed": 0.1429, "xgot": 0.0466, "ball_carries": 4.3238, "total_progression": 16.2153, "progressive_carries": 0.5324, "shots_off_target": 0.5039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.0653, xG scale 1.3451, xA scale 1.1378, team xA 1.15 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6577, "expected_assists": 0.042, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.6375, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, "total_long_balls": 0.9851, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3722, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8221, "crosses_total": 1.3081, "crosses_accurate": 0.414, "touches": 16.9253, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.5519, "aerial_won": 0.5812, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles_won": 0.3566, "tackles": 0.5576, "clearances": 0.0956, "total_contest": 0.5144, "won_contest": 0.2, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.1963, "fouls_drawn": 0.173, "blocks": 0.1482, "big_chances_created": 0.228, "big_chances_missed": 0.1429, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 4.3238, "total_progression": 16.2153, "progressive_carries": 0.5324, "shots_off_target": 0.5039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9533, "creation_factor": 1.0398 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.433, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0653, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0076, "team_expected_assists": 1.1464, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3451, "xa_scale": 1.1378, "opponent_lambda": 1.547, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0484, "after": 0.034 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0707, "after": 0.042 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6577, "expected_assists": 0.042, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.6375, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, "total_long_balls": 0.9851, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3722, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8221, "crosses_total": 1.3081, "crosses_accurate": 0.414, "touches": 16.9253, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.5519, "aerial_won": 0.5812, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles_won": 0.3566, "tackles": 0.5576, "clearances": 0.0956, "total_contest": 0.5144, "won_contest": 0.2, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.1963, "fouls_drawn": 0.173, "blocks": 0.1482, "big_chances_created": 0.228, "big_chances_missed": 0.1429, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 4.3238, "total_progression": 16.2153, "progressive_carries": 0.5324, "shots_off_target": 0.5039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9533, "creation_factor": 1.0398, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 740, "fifa_rank": 683.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6577, "expected_assists": 0.042, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.6375, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, "total_long_balls": 0.9851, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3722, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8221, "crosses_total": 1.3081, "crosses_accurate": 0.414, "touches": 16.9253, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.5519, "aerial_won": 0.5812, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles_won": 0.3566, "tackles": 0.5576, "clearances": 0.0956, "total_contest": 0.5144, "won_contest": 0.2, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.1963, "fouls_drawn": 0.173, "blocks": 0.1482, "big_chances_created": 0.228, "big_chances_missed": 0.1429, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 4.3238, "total_progression": 16.2153, "progressive_carries": 0.5324, "shots_off_target": 0.5039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9533, "creation_factor": 1.0398, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "scorer_weight": 0.0324, "squad_weight_total": 1.4802, "weight_share": 0.0219, "finishing_factor": 0.9533, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.46, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.46, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2532 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6577, "expected_assists": 0.042, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.6375, "rating": 7.0212, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, "total_long_balls": 0.9851, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3722, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8221, "crosses_total": 1.3081, "crosses_accurate": 0.414, "touches": 16.9253, "possession_lost": 4.5419, "dispossessed": 0.5603, "duels_lost": 1.5519, "aerial_won": 0.5812, "aerial_lost": 0.2191, "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles_won": 0.3566, "tackles": 0.5576, "clearances": 0.0956, "total_contest": 0.5144, "won_contest": 0.2, "challenges_lost": 0.3909, "fouls": 0.1963, "fouls_drawn": 0.173, "blocks": 0.1482, "big_chances_created": 0.228, "big_chances_missed": 0.1429, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 4.3238, "total_progression": 16.2153, "progressive_carries": 0.5324, "shots_off_target": 0.5039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.131, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "finishing_factor": 0.9533, "creation_factor": 1.0398, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "provider_weight": 0.0437, "squad_weight_total": 1.1464, "weight_share": 0.0381, "creation_factor": 1.0398, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jannik Schuster", "weight": 0.254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.254, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1532, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.43, "expected_assists": 1.15, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 384, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } }, "Liverpool": { 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6.676465034484863, "model_output": 6.6765, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0996, "total": 6.6765, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046816 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.017448 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017342 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.015765 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.012787 } ], 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"2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6912, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "expected_assists": 0.0733, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0808, "expected_assists": 0.1688, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 53, "combined_rank_score": 65.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 31.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9499, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 }, { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 }, { "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking": 57 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0129, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Liverpool", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 152.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5882352941176471, "shots_per90": 2.96, "shots_on_target_pct": 40.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Liverpool, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5882352941176471)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6626, "expected_assists": 0.142, "assists": 0.1448, "assist_rate": 0.1448, "expected_goals": 0.1934, "goals": 0.1804, "goal_rate": 0.1804, "shots_on_target": 0.626, "total_shots": 1.8485, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 43.5961, "accurate_pass": 35.691, "duels_won": 3.6806, "total_long_balls": 2.5548, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2639, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6224, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.6393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.0686, "crosses_total": 1.856, "crosses_accurate": 0.3068, "touches": 60.236, "possession_lost": 15.1656, "dispossessed": 1.0837, "duels_lost": 4.5602, "aerial_won": 0.4287, "aerial_lost": 0.7695, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.6136, "tackles": 1.2445, "clearances": 0.5535, "total_contest": 1.9762, "won_contest": 0.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.1939, "fouls": 1.5364, "fouls_drawn": 1.0663, "blocks": 0.0504, 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0.041107 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035777 } ], "others_margin": 0.175641 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1448172777891159, "model_output": 0.1448, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": 0.0201, "total": 0.1448, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.083315 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.072223 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.07071 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.068687 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062412 } ], "others_margin": 0.149444 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19339129328727722, "model_output": 0.1934, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.1934, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.293976 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.182451 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101538 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.098247 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.025094 } ], "others_margin": 0.01698 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18039651215076447, "model_output": 0.1804, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 0.1804, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.293033 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.145842 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110773 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077978 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.060142 } ], "others_margin": -0.075418 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6259543299674988, "model_output": 0.626, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0921 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0723 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0726 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0253 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 0.626, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.249083 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.159611 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138096 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.082864 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.040519 } ], "others_margin": -0.016963 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.848415493965149, "model_output": 1.8484, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0481 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 1.8484, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.554959 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146261 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.048699 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.048095 } ], "others_margin": -0.007169 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.949863433837891, "model_output": 6.9499, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1117 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0561 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": 0.0518, "total": 6.9499, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.111726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.056076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02949 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020419 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019667 } ], "others_margin": 0.051754 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.883)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assists": 0.1467, "assist_rate": 0.1467, "expected_goals": 0.1959, "goals": 0.1827, "goal_rate": 0.1827, "shots_on_target": 0.634, "total_shots": 1.8723, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8799, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.4342, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2711, "tackles_won": 0.6215, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0801, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0913, "xgot": 0.1226, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2383 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 81000000, "quality_factor": 0.8829, "boost_factor": 1.0129, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0084)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assists": 0.1499, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "expected_goals": 0.1959, "goals": 0.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "shots_on_target": 0.6375, "total_shots": 1.8787, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8729, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.4342, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2688, "tackles_won": 0.6251, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5476, "fouls_drawn": 1.0754, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0913, "xgot": 0.1226, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2383 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0084, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8907, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5562, "after": 1.5476 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8799, "after": 1.8729 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8723, "after": 1.8787 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assists": 0.1499, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "expected_goals": 0.1959, "goals": 0.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "shots_on_target": 0.6375, "total_shots": 1.8787, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8729, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.4342, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2688, "tackles_won": 0.6251, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5476, "fouls_drawn": 1.0754, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0913, "xgot": 0.1226, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2383 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assists": 0.1499, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "expected_goals": 0.1937, "goals": 0.1791, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "shots_on_target": 0.6302, "total_shots": 1.8573, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8729, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2688, "tackles_won": 0.6251, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5476, "fouls_drawn": 1.0754, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2242, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9886, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9886, "skill_edge": 0.0242, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.8829, "defender_skill": 0.829, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.829 } ], "xg_override": 0.1937 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4342, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8787, "after": 1.8573 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2383, "after": 1.2242 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6375, "after": 0.6302 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1937, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6302, "total_shots": 1.8573, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8729, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2688, "tackles_won": 0.6251, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5476, "fouls_drawn": 1.0754, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2242, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9886, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.2051, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2296, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6302, "total_shots": 1.8573, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8729, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2688, "tackles_won": 0.6251, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5476, "fouls_drawn": 1.0754, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.1437, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2242, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9886, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9401, "creation_factor": 1.0315 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1937, "after": 0.2296 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1438, "after": 0.2051 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.2051, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2296, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6302, "total_shots": 1.8573, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8729, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2688, "tackles_won": 0.6251, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5476, "fouls_drawn": 1.0754, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.1437, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2242, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9886, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9401, "creation_factor": 1.0315, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 53, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.2051, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2296, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6302, "total_shots": 1.8573, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, "total_long_balls": 2.5878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2802, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7465, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.0603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4049, "crosses_total": 1.8729, "crosses_accurate": 0.3108, "touches": 61.013, "possession_lost": 15.3612, "dispossessed": 1.0977, "duels_lost": 4.619, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7794, "interceptions": 0.2688, "tackles_won": 0.6251, "tackles": 1.2606, "clearances": 0.5606, "total_contest": 2.0017, "won_contest": 0.9533, "challenges_lost": 0.1964, "fouls": 1.5476, "fouls_drawn": 1.0754, "blocks": 0.0511, "big_chances_created": 0.0792, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.1437, "ball_carries": 14.77, "total_progression": 33.8774, "progressive_carries": 1.4779, "shots_off_target": 1.2242, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9886, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "opponent_faced": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2051, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9401, "creation_factor": 1.0315, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2051, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "scorer_weight": 0.2158, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.1292, "finishing_factor": 0.9401, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6841, "expected_assists": 0.2051, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2296, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6302, "total_shots": 1.8573, "rating": 6.9499, "minutes": 80.16, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 36.1514, "duels_won": 3.7281, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1509 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1098 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0742 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": 0.0946, "total": 1.0797, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.202178 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.125084 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076459 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.051866 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028604 } ], "others_margin": 0.091653 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.880832195281982, "model_output": 6.8808, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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{ "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6109, "after": 0.5775 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4785, "after": 0.4523 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2667, "after": 0.2521 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1923, "after": 0.1818 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1711, "after": 0.1617 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1617, "goal_rate": 0.1818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5775, "total_shots": 1.9157, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "key_pass": 1.0894, "rating": 6.8808, "minutes": 82.27, "total_pass": 22.2608, "accurate_pass": 18.0393, "duels_won": 5.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.4576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2226, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3077, "crosses_total": 2.5583, "crosses_accurate": 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06314 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.04739 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025352 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023094 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017569 } ], "others_margin": -0.037958 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.622)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6146, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goals": 0.07, "goal_rate": 0.07, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "total_shots": 0.677, "rating": 6.7354, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.3115, "accurate_pass": 6.5989, "duels_won": 0.5197, "total_long_balls": 0.5359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9944, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6045, "crosses_total": 0.189, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8041, "possession_lost": 1.2025, "dispossessed": 0.0606, "duels_lost": 1.1083, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.305, "interceptions": 0.4656, "tackles_won": 0.189, "tackles": 0.5197, "clearances": 0.4819, 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CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9632, "skill_edge": -0.009, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6546, "defender_skill": 0.6747, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6747 } ], "xg_override": 0.0438 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6765, "after": 0.6516 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4989, "after": 0.4805 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1776, "after": 0.1711 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6146, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assist_rate": 0.0423, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0672, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1711, "total_shots": 0.6516, "rating": 6.7354, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.3115, "accurate_pass": 6.5989, "duels_won": 0.5197, "total_long_balls": 0.5359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9944, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6045, "crosses_total": 0.1885, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8041, "possession_lost": 1.2025, "dispossessed": 0.0606, "duels_lost": 1.1083, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.305, "interceptions": 0.478, "tackles_won": 0.1885, "tackles": 0.5197, "clearances": 0.4819, "total_contest": 0.2405, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2147, "fouls": 0.4469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1607, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0674, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4309, "total_progression": 0.6942, "progressive_carries": 0.0, 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"contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0639, "total": 1.3717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.297019 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15095 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.035649 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023791 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.0196 } ], "others_margin": -0.064046 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.886118412017822, "model_output": 6.8861, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": 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"name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.4712, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059799 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030584 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015276 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009812 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.008387 } ], "others_margin": -0.015804 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.677640438079834, "model_output": 6.6776, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0084, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7344, "tackles": 1.6631, "tackles_won": 0.9915, "clearances": 2.4584, "aerial_won": 0.7935, "total_shots": 0.4752, "rating": 6.6776, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 36.2692, "accurate_pass": 29.034, "duels_won": 4.1319, "total_long_balls": 3.4504, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3169, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1634, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2335, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3384, "fouls_drawn": 1.448, "blocks": 0.4868, "goals": 0.053, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, "big_chances_created": 0.0277, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 10.0228, "total_progression": 41.6999, "progressive_carries": 1.1714, "key_pass": 0.4819, "shots_off_target": 0.3434 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9463, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4752, "after": 0.4803 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.6631, "tackles_won": 0.992, "clearances": 2.4584, "aerial_won": 0.7935, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.6776, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 36.2692, "accurate_pass": 29.034, "duels_won": 4.1319, "total_long_balls": 3.4504, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3169, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1634, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, 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12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, "big_chances_created": 0.0277, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 10.0228, "total_progression": 41.6999, "progressive_carries": 1.1714, "key_pass": 0.4819, "shots_off_target": 0.3434, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.6631, "tackles_won": 0.992, "clearances": 2.4584, "aerial_won": 0.7935, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.6776, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 36.2692, "accurate_pass": 29.034, "duels_won": 4.1319, "total_long_balls": 3.4504, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3169, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1634, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, 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1.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3169, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1634, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.044, "expected_assists": 0.025, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, "big_chances_created": 0.0277, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 10.0228, "total_progression": 41.6999, "progressive_carries": 1.1714, "key_pass": 0.4819, "shots_off_target": 0.3434, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1768, "creation_factor": 1.0593 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0371, "after": 0.044 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0175, "after": 0.025 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.6631, "tackles_won": 0.992, "clearances": 2.4584, "aerial_won": 0.7935, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.6776, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 36.2692, "accurate_pass": 29.034, "duels_won": 4.1319, "total_long_balls": 3.4504, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3169, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1634, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.044, "expected_assists": 0.025, 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appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.6631, "tackles_won": 0.992, "clearances": 2.4584, "aerial_won": 0.7935, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.6776, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 36.2692, "accurate_pass": 29.034, "duels_won": 4.1319, "total_long_balls": 3.4504, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3169, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1634, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.044, "expected_assists": 0.025, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, "big_chances_created": 0.0277, "xgot": 0.0202, "ball_carries": 10.0228, "total_progression": 41.6999, "progressive_carries": 1.1714, "key_pass": 0.4819, "shots_off_target": 0.3434, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.043, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1768, "creation_factor": 1.0593, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "scorer_weight": 0.0518, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.031, "finishing_factor": 1.1768, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.6631, "tackles_won": 0.992, "clearances": 2.4584, "aerial_won": 0.7935, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.6776, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 36.2692, "accurate_pass": 29.034, "duels_won": 4.1319, "total_long_balls": 3.4504, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3169, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1634, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8706, "crosses_total": 2.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.3963, "touches": 55.8657, "possession_lost": 12.5127, "dispossessed": 0.462, "duels_lost": 3.4831, "aerial_lost": 0.9758, "total_contest": 0.692, "won_contest": 0.3076, "ball_recovery": 2.9545, "challenges_lost": 0.335, "fouls": 1.3405, "fouls_drawn": 1.4446, "blocks": 0.4868, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.044, "expected_assists": 0.025, 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0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "player_id": 151545, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 195, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1318, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 65, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 8.7204, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1633, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.092, "expected_assists": 0.0401, 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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"17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 70, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 35, "combined_rank_score": 47.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 43.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1318, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Virgil van Dijk", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marko Arnautović", "ranking": 30 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "ranking": 31 }, { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 32 }, { "player_name": "Fermín López", "ranking": 33 }, { "player_name": "Bianneider Tamayo", "ranking": 34 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Remo Freuler", "ranking": 36 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cunat Campos", "ranking": 37 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cuñat", "ranking": 38 }, { "player_name": "Mike Maignan", "ranking": 39 }, { "player_name": "Martin Ødegaard", "ranking": 40 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", 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"predicted": 0.529352068901062, "model_output": 0.5294, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.108 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.082 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0472 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0399 } ], "others": -0.1364, "total": 0.5294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.135116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104251 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.095311 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.06473 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.05814 } ], "others_margin": -0.229427 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.844506740570068, "model_output": 5.8445, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.9118 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5365 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.4582 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.339 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3143 } ], "others": -0.148, "total": 5.8445, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.235571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116441 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.089722 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.061555 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053882 } ], "others_margin": -0.025025 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.020460367202759, "model_output": 3.0205, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.8634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2327 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1956 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1316 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0652 } ], "others": 0.2851, "total": 3.0205, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.486665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.098793 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.076107 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.04814 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.023539 } ], "others_margin": 0.099107 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5314169526100159, "model_output": 0.5314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 0.5314, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046636 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.029105 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.020354 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019421 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.019258 } ], "others_margin": 0.001367 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.131826400756836, "model_output": 7.1318, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0869 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0713 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0379 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0318 } ], "others": 0.0733, "total": 7.1318, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086852 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.071338 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.045884 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037934 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031807 } ], "others_margin": 0.073307 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0024, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1418, "tackles": 0.854, "tackles_won": 0.5306, "clearances": 5.8585, "aerial_won": 3.0277, "total_shots": 0.5327, "rating": 7.1318, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 73.2598, "accurate_pass": 64.7572, "duels_won": 4.3416, "total_long_balls": 9.2129, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5262, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0158, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7415, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 84.1004, "possession_lost": 8.7204, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.9595, "aerial_lost": 1.3071, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "ball_recovery": 2.9176, "challenges_lost": 0.0484, "fouls": 0.6505, "fouls_drawn": 0.4947, "blocks": 0.4996, "goals": 0.1648, "goal_rate": 0.1648, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0776, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.2871, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "ball_carries": 20.3262, "total_progression": 88.6239, "progressive_carries": 0.9945, "key_pass": 0.222, "shots_off_target": 0.2456 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0024, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1361, "tackles": 0.854, "tackles_won": 0.5303, "clearances": 5.8585, "aerial_won": 3.0277, "total_shots": 0.5368, "rating": 7.1318, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 73.2598, "accurate_pass": 64.7572, "duels_won": 4.3416, "total_long_balls": 9.2129, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5262, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0158, 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84.1004, "possession_lost": 8.7204, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.9595, "aerial_lost": 1.3071, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "ball_recovery": 2.9176, "challenges_lost": 0.0484, "fouls": 0.6447, "fouls_drawn": 0.4903, "blocks": 0.4996, "goals": 0.1633, "goal_rate": 0.1633, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0776, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.289, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "ball_carries": 20.3262, "total_progression": 88.6239, "progressive_carries": 0.9945, "key_pass": 0.222, "shots_off_target": 0.2456, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Mathias Jensen", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mathias Jensen", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1361, "tackles": 0.854, "tackles_won": 0.5303, "clearances": 5.8585, "aerial_won": 3.0277, "total_shots": 0.5368, "rating": 7.1318, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 73.2598, "accurate_pass": 64.7572, "duels_won": 4.3416, "total_long_balls": 9.2129, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5262, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0158, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7415, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 84.1004, "possession_lost": 8.7204, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.9595, "aerial_lost": 1.3071, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, 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1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0776, "after": 0.092 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0281, "after": 0.0401 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1361, "tackles": 0.854, "tackles_won": 0.5303, "clearances": 5.8585, "aerial_won": 3.0277, "total_shots": 0.5368, "rating": 7.1318, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 73.2598, "accurate_pass": 64.7572, "duels_won": 4.3416, "total_long_balls": 9.2129, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5262, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0158, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7415, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 84.1004, "possession_lost": 8.7204, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.9595, "aerial_lost": 1.3071, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "ball_recovery": 2.9176, "challenges_lost": 0.0484, "fouls": 0.6447, "fouls_drawn": 0.4903, "blocks": 0.4996, "goal_rate": 0.1633, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.092, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "shots_on_target": 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official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1361, "tackles": 0.854, "tackles_won": 0.5303, "clearances": 5.8585, "aerial_won": 3.0277, "total_shots": 0.5368, "rating": 7.1318, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 73.2598, "accurate_pass": 64.7572, "duels_won": 4.3416, "total_long_balls": 9.2129, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5262, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0158, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7415, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 84.1004, "possession_lost": 8.7204, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.9595, "aerial_lost": 1.3071, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "ball_recovery": 2.9176, "challenges_lost": 0.0484, "fouls": 0.6447, "fouls_drawn": 0.4903, "blocks": 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28.7415, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 84.1004, "possession_lost": 8.7204, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.9595, "aerial_lost": 1.3071, "total_contest": 0.0018, "won_contest": 0.0018, "ball_recovery": 2.9176, "challenges_lost": 0.0484, "fouls": 0.6447, "fouls_drawn": 0.4903, "blocks": 0.4996, "goal_rate": 0.1633, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.092, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "shots_on_target": 0.289, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1277, "ball_carries": 20.3262, "total_progression": 88.6239, "progressive_carries": 0.9945, "key_pass": 0.222, "shots_off_target": 0.2456, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Mathias Jensen", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": 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output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0492, quality 0.866)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1682, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1099, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.5057, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0725, "fouls_drawn": 0.7137, "blocks": 0.937, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.2526, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0653, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 67000000, "quality_factor": 0.8661, "boost_factor": 1.0492, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0315)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0653, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0315, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9646, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1682, "after": 1.2074 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7137, "after": 0.7482 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5057, "after": 0.4898 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0725, "after": 1.0577 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2526, "after": 0.2446 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4977, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0653, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4977, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0653, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4977, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0653, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4977, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0812, "expected_assists": 0.03, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0685, "after": 0.0812 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.021, "after": 0.03 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4977, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0812, "expected_assists": 0.03, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2031, "fifa_rank": 1446.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4977, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0812, "expected_assists": 0.03, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.078, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.078, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.065, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.0389, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2074, "tackles": 1.7659, "tackles_won": 1.1129, "clearances": 4.2187, "aerial_won": 1.7415, "total_shots": 0.4977, "rating": 6.9713, "minutes": 86.81, "total_pass": 61.8519, "accurate_pass": 55.7065, "duels_won": 5.7796, "total_long_balls": 6.7302, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3765, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3589, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.035, "possession_lost": 7.9978, "dispossessed": 0.4078, "duels_lost": 1.9657, "aerial_lost": 0.4422, "total_contest": 0.4266, "won_contest": 0.4266, "ball_recovery": 3.5309, "challenges_lost": 0.1552, "fouls": 1.0577, "fouls_drawn": 0.7482, "blocks": 0.937, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0812, "expected_assists": 0.03, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0774, "ball_carries": 17.7185, "total_progression": 78.676, "progressive_carries": 0.5606, "key_pass": 0.3992, "shots_off_target": 0.2531, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.078, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.024, "squad_weight_total": 0.9033, "weight_share": 0.0266, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Víctor Muñoz", "weight": 0.1218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1218, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ronald Araújo": { "player_id": 925097, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 191, "market_value": 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"contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 6.8054, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038903 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017791 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009716 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.006368 } ], "others_margin": -0.021489 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.874, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.9373, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4416, "fouls_drawn": 0.2776, "blocks": 0.2919, "goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.087, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "shots_on_target": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0636, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0025)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.4073, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.2919, "goals": 0.0868, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "shots_on_target": 0.1277, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0636, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0025, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8697, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4416, "after": 0.4513 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.408, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.2919, "goals": 0.0868, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "shots_on_target": 0.1277, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0636, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.408, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.2919, "goals": 0.0868, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "shots_on_target": 0.1277, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0636, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.408, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "shots_on_target": 0.1277, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0636, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.408, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.1277, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0277, "after": 0.0395 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.408, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.1277, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1007, "fifa_rank": 762.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.408, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7444, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3753, "crosses_total": 1.1325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.7148, "possession_lost": 9.369, "dispossessed": 0.2215, "duels_lost": 2.4032, "aerial_lost": 1.229, "total_contest": 0.4852, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 3.79, "challenges_lost": 0.3939, "fouls": 0.4513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "blocks": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.1277, "big_chances_created": 0.0818, "xgot": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 9.8584, "total_progression": 25.0272, "progressive_carries": 0.2131, "key_pass": 0.3201, "shots_off_target": 0.2803, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0246, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0246, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "scorer_weight": 0.0311, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.0186, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8718, "tackles": 1.6531, "tackles_won": 0.935, "clearances": 3.0608, "aerial_won": 2.1872, "total_shots": 0.408, "rating": 6.8054, "minutes": 78.27, "total_pass": 45.3585, "accurate_pass": 40.1197, "duels_won": 5.2321, "total_long_balls": 3.4894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7763, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8272, 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.7629 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1557 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023992, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Tottenham 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023976, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.049 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 138, "combined_rank_score": 125.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", 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}, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 4.3261, "save_contribution": 2.3255, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9298, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 20.5682, 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0.0207, "total": 0.0117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013114 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.012686 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.012183 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.011605 } ], "others_margin": 0.020718 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.020279407501221, "model_output": 7.0203, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 7.0203, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028305 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.019101 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.015787 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.015697 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.014472 } ], "others_margin": -0.00334 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9224, "goals_prevented": 0.0118, "rating": 7.0203, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2144, "accurate_pass": 23.4447, "total_long_balls": 10.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3421, "touches": 40.8399, "clearances": 1.5946, "ball_recovery": 8.9725, "high_claims": 1.4149, "punches": 1.0034, "aerial_won": 0.2744, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9671, "saves_inside_box": 1.2894, "possession_lost": 7.047, "duels_won": 0.3628, "duels_lost": 0.1257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1006, "fouls_drawn": 0.1389, "total_own_half_passes": 22.124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6443 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9116, "goals_prevented": 0.0118, "rating": 7.0203, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2144, "accurate_pass": 23.4447, "total_long_balls": 10.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3421, "touches": 40.8399, "clearances": 1.5946, "ball_recovery": 8.9725, "high_claims": 1.4149, "punches": 1.0034, "aerial_won": 0.2744, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9671, "saves_inside_box": 1.2894, "possession_lost": 7.047, "duels_won": 0.3628, "duels_lost": 0.1257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1053, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "total_own_half_passes": 22.124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6443 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0117, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9224, "after": 2.9116 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9116, "goals_prevented": 0.0118, "rating": 7.0203, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2144, "accurate_pass": 23.4447, "total_long_balls": 10.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3421, "touches": 40.8399, "clearances": 1.5946, "ball_recovery": 8.9725, "high_claims": 1.4149, "punches": 1.0034, "aerial_won": 0.2744, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9671, "saves_inside_box": 1.2894, "possession_lost": 7.047, "duels_won": 0.3628, "duels_lost": 0.1257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1053, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "total_own_half_passes": 22.124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6443 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9116, "goals_prevented": 0.0118, "rating": 7.0203, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2144, "accurate_pass": 23.4447, "total_long_balls": 10.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3421, "touches": 40.8399, "clearances": 1.5946, "ball_recovery": 8.9725, "high_claims": 1.4149, "punches": 1.0034, "aerial_won": 0.2744, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9671, "saves_inside_box": 1.2894, "possession_lost": 7.047, "duels_won": 0.3628, "duels_lost": 0.1257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1053, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "total_own_half_passes": 22.124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6443, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4753, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.42, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Jaidon Anthony", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Jaidon Anthony", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4753 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9116, "goals_prevented": 0.0118, "rating": 7.0203, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2144, "accurate_pass": 23.4447, "total_long_balls": 10.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3421, "touches": 40.8399, "clearances": 1.5946, "ball_recovery": 8.9725, "high_claims": 1.4149, "punches": 1.0034, "aerial_won": 0.2744, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9671, "saves_inside_box": 1.2894, "possession_lost": 7.047, "duels_won": 0.3628, "duels_lost": 0.1257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1053, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "total_own_half_passes": 22.124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6443, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4753, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.42, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Jaidon Anthony", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9116, "goals_prevented": 0.0118, "rating": 7.0203, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2144, "accurate_pass": 23.4447, "total_long_balls": 10.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3421, "touches": 40.8399, "clearances": 1.5946, "ball_recovery": 8.9725, "high_claims": 1.4149, "punches": 1.0034, "aerial_won": 0.2744, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9671, "saves_inside_box": 1.2894, "possession_lost": 7.047, "duels_won": 0.3628, "duels_lost": 0.1257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1053, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "total_own_half_passes": 22.124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6443, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4753, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Jaidon Anthony", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.0, "after": 13.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.42, "after": 3.33 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.18, "after": 1.15 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9116, "goals_prevented": 0.0118, "rating": 7.0203, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.2144, "accurate_pass": 23.4447, "total_long_balls": 10.8772, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3421, "touches": 40.8399, "clearances": 1.5946, "ball_recovery": 8.9725, "high_claims": 1.4149, "punches": 1.0034, "aerial_won": 0.2744, "sweeper_actions": 0.9671, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9671, "saves_inside_box": 1.2894, "possession_lost": 7.047, "duels_won": 0.3628, "duels_lost": 0.1257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1053, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "total_own_half_passes": 22.124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6443, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4753, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Jaidon Anthony", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.1218, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Giorgi Mamardashvili": { "player_id": 930997, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 200, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.0128, "rating": 6.8843, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 7, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0772, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 1.7489, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.158, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.8891 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 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0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4684 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": 0.0344, "total": 0.4591, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.794986 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.061858 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.060817 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05288 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.042183 } ], "others_margin": 0.077979 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.6392356753349304, "model_output": 0.6392, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1232 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3044 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1097 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.055 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0514 } ], "others": -0.1498, "total": 0.6392, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.963671 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.264567 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.11556 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063379 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.063125 } ], "others_margin": -0.210536 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.1961466521024704, "model_output": 0.1961, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8077 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2106 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0216 } ], "others": -0.0712, "total": 0.1961, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.882999 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.461752 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.12 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.097103 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.07762 } ], "others_margin": -0.309553 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22668197751045227, "model_output": 0.2267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.2267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.207995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051074 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.0238 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023628 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013056 } ], "others_margin": -0.001977 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.608955383300781, "model_output": 6.609, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0629, "total": 6.609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.037407 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.034973 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016758 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012506 }, { "name": "touches_p90", 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 79, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 16 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, 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"contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.4991, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.721634 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.060277 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.046411 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.034187 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.03031 } ], "others_margin": 0.013051 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.972560703754425, "model_output": 0.9726, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.9476 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.085 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.069 } ], "others": -0.1232, "total": 0.9726, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.837844 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.227279 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07458 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.067227 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.065076 } ], "others_margin": -0.119326 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2281891107559204, "model_output": 0.2282, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8085 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1991 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0574, "total": 0.2282, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.884267 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.430732 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.115265 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.093986 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.048448 } ], "others_margin": -0.225017 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.32234257459640503, "model_output": 0.3223, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2273 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0089, "total": 0.3223, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.227305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.047751 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02949 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.019723 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012951 } ], "others_margin": -0.008866 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.904399394989014, "model_output": 6.9044, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0807 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0669 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0208 } ], "others": 0.0266, "total": 6.9044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.0807 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066927 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.033541 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.024979 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020834 } ], "others_margin": 0.026568 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.7255, "tackles_won": 0.5036, "clearances": 0.9813, "aerial_won": 0.2302, "total_shots": 0.3252, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 32.52, "total_pass": 22.8654, "accurate_pass": 21.117, "duels_won": 1.6118, "total_long_balls": 0.9516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.503, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.432, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7915, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6849, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0232, "touches": 30.8772, "possession_lost": 3.554, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 1.8885, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "total_contest": 0.1434, "won_contest": 0.1202, "ball_recovery": 2.4784, "challenges_lost": 0.9595, "fouls": 0.0576, "fouls_drawn": 0.4471, "blocks": 0.1635, "goals": 0.0, 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1483, "tackles": 0.3294, "tackles_won": 0.2287, "clearances": 0.4456, "aerial_won": 0.1045, "total_shots": 0.1477, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 14.77, "total_pass": 10.3822, "accurate_pass": 9.5884, "duels_won": 0.7319, "total_long_balls": 0.4321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2284, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6659, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2138, "crosses_total": 0.0875, "crosses_accurate": 0.0105, "touches": 14.0201, "possession_lost": 1.6137, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 0.8575, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "total_contest": 0.0651, "won_contest": 0.0546, "ball_recovery": 1.1253, "challenges_lost": 0.9595, "fouls": 0.0262, "fouls_drawn": 0.203, "blocks": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "shots_on_target": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 4.631, "total_progression": 11.2772, "progressive_carries": 0.2828, "key_pass": 0.1679, "shots_off_target": 0.0588, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.353, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1483, "tackles": 0.3294, "tackles_won": 0.2287, "clearances": 0.4456, "aerial_won": 0.1045, "total_shots": 0.1477, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 14.77, "total_pass": 10.3822, "accurate_pass": 9.5884, "duels_won": 0.7319, "total_long_balls": 0.4321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2284, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6659, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2138, "crosses_total": 0.0875, "crosses_accurate": 0.0105, "touches": 14.0201, "possession_lost": 1.6137, 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}, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.225096 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.170448 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.08487 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058015 } ], "others_margin": -0.116889 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1326802372932434, "model_output": 0.1327, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0155, "total": 0.1327, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482395 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.343175 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.130837 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.119043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.069794 } ], "others_margin": 0.124682 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.26441025733947754, "model_output": 0.2644, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1549 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": 0.035, "total": 0.2644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.645485 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.249078 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.168297 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.064832 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057604 } ], "others_margin": 0.141981 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8511517643928528, "model_output": 0.8512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5796 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4569 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0454 } ], "others": 0.023, "total": 0.8512, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.57959 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.456942 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.062683 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.061938 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.045442 } ], "others_margin": 0.022963 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.983544826507568, "model_output": 6.9835, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1231 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.083 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": 0.0237, "total": 6.9835, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.123111 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101278 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082965 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018587 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "margin": -0.016737 } ], "others_margin": 0.02384 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2889, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "assists": 0.1008, "assist_rate": 0.1008, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.1343, "goal_rate": 0.1343, "shots_on_target": 0.2677, "total_shots": 0.8618, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 56.8679, "accurate_pass": 49.6516, "duels_won": 3.0359, "total_long_balls": 4.8433, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3591, "total_own_half_passes": 23.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6686, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.983, "crosses_total": 6.7658, "crosses_accurate": 2.0534, "touches": 80.0337, "possession_lost": 15.2372, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 5.6696, "aerial_won": 0.5843, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 0.8622, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "tackles": 1.3964, "clearances": 1.274, "total_contest": 1.0035, "won_contest": 0.3942, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 1.9008, "fouls_drawn": 0.661, "blocks": 0.3078, "big_chances_created": 0.8997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.2927, "ball_carries": 19.4866, "total_progression": 79.2674, "progressive_carries": 1.7112, "shots_off_target": 0.594 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 91000000, "quality_factor": 0.8895, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "assists": 0.1261, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.168, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.76, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2507, "appearance_probability": 0.58 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "assists": 0.1261, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.168, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2517, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9278 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.58 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0852, "after": 0.0586 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1398, "after": 0.1157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2517, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9278, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 78, "fifa_rank": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 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"contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.3213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.404007 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.084845 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.056316 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.039012 } ], "others_margin": -0.065456 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683207035064697, "model_output": 6.6832, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0674 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0414, "total": 6.6832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067399 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013655 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013472 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013136 } ], "others_margin": -0.041362 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0241, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1677, "goals": 0.1899, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "shots_on_target": 0.4503, "total_shots": 1.246, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "key_pass": 0.3291, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 19.11, "total_pass": 2.8697, "accurate_pass": 1.6326, "duels_won": 0.659, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0754, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.5223, "possession_lost": 2.9222, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 1.7777, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 0.8173, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6436, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3561, "tackles": 0.5075, "clearances": 0.3611, "blocks": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0188, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7161, "total_progression": 11.9526, "progressive_carries": 0.3981, "shots_off_target": 0.7957 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 93000000, "quality_factor": 0.8905, "boost_factor": 1.0241, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.1 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2377, "goals": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.09, "projection_minutes": 19.11, "minutes_scale": 1.4174, "appearance_probability": 0.64 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2377, "goals": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2377, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0202, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.64 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2377, "after": 0.1803 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0202, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 236, "fifa_rank": 92.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0202, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1571, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1571, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "scorer_weight": 0.2, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.1197, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "appearance_weight": 0.64, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, 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"assist_probability": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.021, "squad_weight_total": 0.9033, "weight_share": 0.0233, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.64, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Víctor Muñoz", "weight": 0.1218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1218, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Hugo Ekitiké": { "player_id": 1048422, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.243 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0083, "total": 0.4477, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447598 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.077927 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.058993 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02548 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.023598 } ], "others_margin": 0.018577 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720518589019775, "model_output": 6.7205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0943 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 6.7205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094275 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.05309 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.030807 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013691 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013552 } ], "others_margin": -0.001736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1595, "goals": 0.1461, "goal_rate": 0.1461, "shots_on_target": 0.3597, "total_shots": 1.1214, "expected_assists": 0.0511, "key_pass": 0.4553, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 7.6748, "accurate_pass": 6.3364, "duels_won": 1.6139, "total_long_balls": 0.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4061, "crosses_total": 0.4719, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2765, "possession_lost": 4.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.374, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.3707, "won_contest": 0.7945, "ball_recovery": 0.8418, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7815, "fouls_drawn": 0.3417, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0846, "tackles": 0.2225, "clearances": 0.638, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 5.4827, "total_progression": 23.8012, "progressive_carries": 1.0763, "shots_off_target": 0.7617 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1793, "goals": 0.1643, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0575, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.04, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1244, "appearance_probability": 0.638 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1793, "goals": 0.1643, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0575, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1793, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0575, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1793, "after": 0.1356 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0575, "after": 0.0523 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 476, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1222, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "scorer_weight": 0.1267, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.0758, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0502, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0502, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0418, "squad_weight_total": 0.9033, "weight_share": 0.0463, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Víctor Muñoz", "weight": 0.1218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1218, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Alexander Isak": { "player_id": 823941, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 193, "market_value": 93000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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0, "assist_probability": 0.0258, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7524, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 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"opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025230, "match_date": "2025-12-20", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.083, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 236, "combined_rank_score": 174.5, 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"margin": -0.056316 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.039012 } ], "others_margin": -0.065456 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683207035064697, "model_output": 6.6832, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0674 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0414, "total": 6.6832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067399 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013655 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013472 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013136 } ], "others_margin": -0.041362 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0241, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1677, "goals": 0.1899, "goal_rate": 0.1899, "shots_on_target": 0.4503, "total_shots": 1.246, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "key_pass": 0.3291, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 19.11, "total_pass": 2.8697, "accurate_pass": 1.6326, "duels_won": 0.659, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0754, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.5223, "possession_lost": 2.9222, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 1.7777, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 0.8173, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6436, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3561, "tackles": 0.5075, "clearances": 0.3611, "blocks": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0188, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7161, "total_progression": 11.9526, "progressive_carries": 0.3981, "shots_off_target": 0.7957 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 93000000, "quality_factor": 0.8905, "boost_factor": 1.0241, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.1 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2377, "goals": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.09, "projection_minutes": 19.11, "minutes_scale": 1.4174, "appearance_probability": 0.64 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2377, "goals": 0.2692, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2377, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0202, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.64 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2377, "after": 0.1803 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0202, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 236, "fifa_rank": 92.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0202, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1571, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1571, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "scorer_weight": 0.2, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.1197, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "appearance_weight": 0.64, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1803, "goal_rate": 0.2692, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6383, "total_shots": 1.7661, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6832, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 4.0675, "accurate_pass": 2.314, "duels_won": 0.9341, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5243, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6621, "possession_lost": 4.1419, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5197, "aerial_lost": 0.5993, "total_contest": 1.1584, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9122, "challenges_lost": 0.1515, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5047, "tackles": 0.7193, "clearances": 0.5118, "blocks": 0.2971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0202, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4324, "total_progression": 16.9416, "progressive_carries": 0.5643, "shots_off_target": 1.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1571, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0258, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.021, "squad_weight_total": 0.9033, "weight_share": 0.0233, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.64, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Víctor Muñoz", "weight": 0.1218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1218, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Hugo Ekitiké": { "player_id": 1048422, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 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0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023992, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.243 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0083, "total": 0.4477, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447598 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.077927 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.058993 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02548 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.023598 } ], "others_margin": 0.018577 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720518589019775, "model_output": 6.7205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0943 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 6.7205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094275 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.05309 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.030807 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013691 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013552 } ], "others_margin": -0.001736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1595, "goals": 0.1461, "goal_rate": 0.1461, "shots_on_target": 0.3597, "total_shots": 1.1214, "expected_assists": 0.0511, "key_pass": 0.4553, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 7.6748, "accurate_pass": 6.3364, "duels_won": 1.6139, "total_long_balls": 0.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4061, "crosses_total": 0.4719, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2765, "possession_lost": 4.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.374, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.3707, "won_contest": 0.7945, "ball_recovery": 0.8418, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7815, "fouls_drawn": 0.3417, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0846, "tackles": 0.2225, "clearances": 0.638, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 5.4827, "total_progression": 23.8012, "progressive_carries": 1.0763, "shots_off_target": 0.7617 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1793, "goals": 0.1643, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0575, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.04, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1244, "appearance_probability": 0.638 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1793, "goals": 0.1643, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0575, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1793, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0575, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1793, "after": 0.1356 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0575, "after": 0.0523 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 476, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1222, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "scorer_weight": 0.1267, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.0758, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1356, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4044, "total_shots": 1.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0502, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0502, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0418, "squad_weight_total": 0.9033, "weight_share": 0.0463, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Víctor Muñoz", "weight": 0.1218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1218, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "player_id": 869856, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 91000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 62, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, 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"goal_probability": 0.0557, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1049, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9278, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1323, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool 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0.141981 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8511517643928528, "model_output": 0.8512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5796 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4569 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0454 } ], "others": 0.023, "total": 0.8512, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.57959 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.456942 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.062683 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.061938 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.045442 } ], "others_margin": 0.022963 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.983544826507568, "model_output": 6.9835, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1231 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.083 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": 0.0237, "total": 6.9835, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.123111 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101278 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082965 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018587 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "margin": -0.016737 } ], "others_margin": 0.02384 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2889, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "assists": 0.1008, "assist_rate": 0.1008, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.1343, "goal_rate": 0.1343, "shots_on_target": 0.2677, "total_shots": 0.8618, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 56.8679, "accurate_pass": 49.6516, "duels_won": 3.0359, "total_long_balls": 4.8433, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3591, "total_own_half_passes": 23.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6686, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.983, "crosses_total": 6.7658, "crosses_accurate": 2.0534, "touches": 80.0337, "possession_lost": 15.2372, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 5.6696, "aerial_won": 0.5843, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 0.8622, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "tackles": 1.3964, "clearances": 1.274, "total_contest": 1.0035, "won_contest": 0.3942, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 1.9008, "fouls_drawn": 0.661, "blocks": 0.3078, "big_chances_created": 0.8997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.2927, "ball_carries": 19.4866, "total_progression": 79.2674, "progressive_carries": 1.7112, "shots_off_target": 0.594 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 91000000, "quality_factor": 0.8895, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "assists": 0.1261, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.168, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.76, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2507, "appearance_probability": 0.58 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "assists": 0.1261, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.168, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.3050, xG scale 1.1854, xA scale 1.4265, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2517, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9278 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.547, "squad_xg_sum": 1.305, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7049, "team_expected_assists": 1.0055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1854, "xa_scale": 1.4265, "opponent_lambda": 1.433, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.58 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0852, "after": 0.0586 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1398, "after": 0.1157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2517, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9278, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 78, "fifa_rank": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2517, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0557, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9278, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.168, "scorer_weight": 0.0732, "squad_weight_total": 1.6711, "weight_share": 0.0438, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.2158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2158, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2099 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.612, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.168, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3348, "total_shots": 1.0778, "rating": 6.9835, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2517, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.7429, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.794, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0557, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1049, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9278, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1049, "assist_rate": 0.1261, "provider_weight": 0.1073, "squad_weight_total": 0.9033, "weight_share": 0.1188, "creation_factor": 0.9278, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Víctor Muñoz", "weight": 0.1218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1218, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1073, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Florian Wirtz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.55, "expected_assists": 1.01, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mathias Jensen", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.502, "defenders": [ "Virgil van Dijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "xg_contribution": 0.0716, "xg_multiplier": 0.813, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mathias Jensen (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Virgil van Dijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.78, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.22, "xg_contribution": 0.3401, "xg_multiplier": 1.0293, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 }, { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) is evenly matched against Jérémy Jacquet and Ronald Araújo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €47M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.340 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jaidon Anthony", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.78, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1822, "xg_multiplier": 0.7865, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaidon Anthony (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Jacquet and Ronald Araújo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €47M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Vitaly Janelt", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Trey Nyoni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.0459, "xg_multiplier": 1.0368, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trey Nyoni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 19100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vitaly Janelt (CDM) is evenly matched against Trey Nyoni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Trey Nyoni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.465, "xg_contribution": 0.0513, "xg_multiplier": 1.0656, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trey Nyoni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 19100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.535 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yehor Yarmoliuk (CDM) is slightly favored against Trey Nyoni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 81000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.883, "defenders": [ "El Hadji Malick Diouf" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.1937, "xg_multiplier": 0.9886, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "role": "RB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (LW) is evenly matched against El Hadji Malick Diouf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€81M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.663, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.1323, "xg_multiplier": 1.0461, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (ST) is evenly matched against Kristoffer Ajer and Jannik Schuster in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.132 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Koumas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.663, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1352, "xg_multiplier": 0.7759, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Koumas (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kristoffer Ajer and Jannik Schuster in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Víctor Muñoz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.663, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1617, "xg_multiplier": 0.9453, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Víctor Muñoz (ST) is evenly matched against Kristoffer Ajer and Jannik Schuster in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Trey Nyoni", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 19100000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.622, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.0438, "xg_multiplier": 0.9632, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Trey Nyoni (CDM) is evenly matched against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Mac Allister", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.485, "xg_contribution": 0.1183, "xg_multiplier": 1.0949, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.515 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Mac Allister (CDM) is slightly favored against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.62, "away_midfield_power": 0.795, "home_creative_power": 0.594, "away_creative_power": 0.764, "home_defensive_power": 0.673, "away_defensive_power": 0.638, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.438, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mathias Jensen", "Vitaly Janelt", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Trey Nyoni", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Yehor Yarmoliuk vs Florian Wirtz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.984, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.018 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.433, "away_lambda": 1.547, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mathias Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jaidon Anthony": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Vitaly Janelt": { "opponents": [ "Trey Nyoni", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yehor Yarmoliuk": { "opponents": [ "Trey Nyoni", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "El Hadji Malick Diouf": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Lewis Koumas", "Víctor Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jannik Schuster": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Lewis Koumas", "Víctor Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Víctor Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Koumas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Mathias Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ronald Araújo": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trey Nyoni": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "Mathias Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewis Koumas": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Víctor Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alisson": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~51% possession expected (Yehor Yarmoliuk vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 0.78. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9459, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.163, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9032, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9001, "home_midfield_factor": 0.984, "away_midfield_factor": 1.018, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6922, "away_avg_quality": 0.7447, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0525, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4365, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5596, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7466, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1582, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.087, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0506, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6911, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8808 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.984, "result": 0.8667 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8667 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.9967 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0171, "result": 1.0138 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9459, "result": 0.959 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9032, "result": 0.8662 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.163, "result": 1.0292 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0292, "result": 1.0292, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1582, "factor": 0.9494, "pre": 1.0292, "result": 0.9771 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9771 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1933, "result": 1.1703 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.7586, "result": 1.4753 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4753, "result": 1.475, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.475 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.475, "result": 1.4328, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.433 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.433 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.433, "result": 1.433, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.433 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.785, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9512 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.018, "result": 0.9684 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9684 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9684 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.928, "result": 0.8986 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 0.8078 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9001, "result": 0.7271 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 0.9071 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9071, "result": 0.9071, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1582, "factor": 1.087, "pre": 0.9071, "result": 0.9861 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9861 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.206 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.7586, "result": 1.5041 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5041, "result": 1.504, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.504 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.504, "result": 1.547, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.547 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.547 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.547, "result": 1.547, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.547 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1933, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brentford", "away_squad": "Liverpool FC", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.433, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.547, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4753, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5041, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.433, "final_away_lambda": 1.547 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0171, "attack_index": 1.119, "defense_concede_index": 0.93, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.65, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.37, "team_ppg": 1.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.42 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.928, "attack_index": 0.93, "defense_concede_index": 0.893, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.37, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.32, "team_ppg": 1.42, "opponent_ppg": 1.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Brentford vs Liverpool. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.475, Away 1.504). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.433, Away 1.547 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brentford", "away_squad": "Liverpool FC", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.433, "away_lambda": 1.547, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.475, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.504 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:31:06Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }