{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Alavés", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1828, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1541, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1523, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3427, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1828 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1541 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1523 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1337 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0669 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1828, "0-1": 0.1523, "0-2": 0.0653, "0-3": 0.0185, "0-4": 0.0039, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1541, "1-1": 0.1337, "1-2": 0.0561, "1-3": 0.0159, "1-4": 0.0034, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0669, "2-1": 0.0568, "2-2": 0.0241, "2-3": 0.0068, "2-4": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0191, "3-1": 0.0163, "3-2": 0.0069, "3-3": 0.002, "4-0": 0.0041, "4-1": 0.0035, "4-2": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3314, "draw": 0.3427, "away_win": 0.3259 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2449, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7551, "btts_yes": 0.3314, "btts_no": 0.6686, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4278, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4236 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 6.81, "ATR": 6.78, "GK": 6.94 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 6.86, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 7.05 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs Alavés. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Celta 6W-2D-2L vs Alavés over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Toni Martínez (ST) — Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle [0.330 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Aleix Febas vs Antonio Blanco will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 0.859, "away_lambda": 0.849, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 6, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0286, "away_multiplier": 0.9714 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1828, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3314, "draw": 0.3427, "away_win": 0.3259 }, "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3314, "fair_spread": 0.01, "fair_total": 1.708, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 0.859, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 0.849, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2449, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3314, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4278, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4236, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ferrán Jutglà (Celta)", "estimate": 0.2113, "probability": 0.1905, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Toni Martínez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.2426, "probability": 0.2154, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Aleix Febas (Celta)", "estimate": 0.0944, "probability": 0.0901, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Denis Suárez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.1683, "probability": 0.1549, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "low", "expected_total_goals": 1.708, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 758, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.4, "possession_home_pct": 49.3, "possession_away_pct": 50.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3314, "script": "Celta is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains draw-heavy: fair spread +0.01 goals and fair total 1.71.", "first_half": "Expect low tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Celta lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Alavés chance creation leans on Toni Martínez against Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Fer López, Jones El-Abdellaoui.", "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Miguel Rodríguez, Carles Aleñá.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Celta tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects low tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 0.85 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Celta.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Celta": { "formation": "3-4-3", "players": { "Hugo Álvarez": { "player_id": 1154935, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 176, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1171, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.082, "finishing_factor": 1.0992, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0586, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4166, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1813, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1371, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1692, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3534, "combined_rank_score": 1503.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 592.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7893, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 2415.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8448, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Álvarez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yuito Suzuki", "ranking": 3529 }, { "player_name": "Tim Lemperle", "ranking": 3530 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Savona", "ranking": 3531 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Torre", "ranking": 3532 }, { "player_name": "Paul Nebel", "ranking": 3533 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Israel Reyes", "ranking": 3535 }, { "player_name": "Rocco Reitz", "ranking": 3536 }, { "player_name": "Chrislain Matsima", "ranking": 3537 }, { "player_name": "Yan Couto", "ranking": 3538 }, { "player_name": "Enes Ünal", "ranking": 3539 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.763, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9997, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 116.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1573, "goal_rate": 0.1573, "shots_on_target": 0.4239, "total_shots": 1.2192, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "key_pass": 1.0007, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1703, "accurate_pass": 22.3194, "duels_won": 2.0114, "total_long_balls": 0.7817, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3661, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.452, "crosses_total": 1.0001, "crosses_accurate": 0.4697, "touches": 37.2057, "possession_lost": 8.1412, "dispossessed": 0.7785, "duels_lost": 3.7712, "aerial_lost": 0.5066, "total_contest": 1.7875, "won_contest": 0.4708, "ball_recovery": 1.9354, "challenges_lost": 0.3952, "fouls": 0.9195, "fouls_drawn": 0.9126, "assists": 0.363, "assist_rate": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.591, "tackles_won": 0.4651, "tackles": 0.6163, "clearances": 0.496, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5451, "big_chances_missed": 0.1437, "xgot": 0.1084, "offsides": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 10.4065, "total_progression": 59.5706, "progressive_carries": 2.4192, "shots_off_target": 0.7953 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.3822, "expectedGoals": 0.0748, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 11.9991, "accuratePass": 17.5938, "totalShots": 0.3951 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13744239509105682, "model_output": 0.1374, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0517 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 0.1374, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.275467 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.22138 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.119216 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.063842 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.054353 } ], "others_margin": -0.179309 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15730200707912445, "model_output": 0.1573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0734 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0525, "total": 0.1573, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.308298 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181392 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.10621 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.075614 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.065256 } ], "others_margin": -0.287851 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.42389437556266785, "model_output": 0.4239, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1714 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0823 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0323 } ], "others": -0.1349, "total": 0.4239, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.276728 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.123436 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095295 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.078838 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.059605 } ], "others_margin": -0.276487 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2191863059997559, "model_output": 1.2192, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4185 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2206 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0765 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0587 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.056 } ], "others": -0.1613, "total": 1.2192, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.418502 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220573 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.076539 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.058693 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.056048 } ], "others_margin": -0.161302 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07640817761421204, "model_output": 0.0764, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 0.0764, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.155199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.132076 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078903 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.075557 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.057358 } ], "others_margin": -0.061095 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.000749945640564, "model_output": 1.0007, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1623 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0993 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0975 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0746 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.03 } ], "others": 0.0129, "total": 1.0008, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.215915 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.112279 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.099226 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.075006 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.030886 } ], "others_margin": 0.012911 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.844758033752441, "model_output": 6.8448, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0168 } ], "others": 0.0167, "total": 6.8448, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060901 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020787 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.019425 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018415 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016776 } ], "others_margin": 0.016577 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1573, "goal_rate": 0.1573, "shots_on_target": 0.4238, "total_shots": 1.2189, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 0.9998, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9192, "fouls_drawn": 0.9123, "assists": 0.3629, "assist_rate": 0.3629, "interceptions": 0.5908, "tackles_won": 0.465, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1437, "xgot": 0.1084, "offsides": 0.0269, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7951 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1562, "goal_rate": 0.1562, "shots_on_target": 0.4207, "total_shots": 1.2101, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assists": 0.3603, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1437, "xgot": 0.1084, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7951 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8062, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9998, "after": 1.0195 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2189, "after": 1.2101 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1562, "goal_rate": 0.1562, "shots_on_target": 0.4207, "total_shots": 1.2158, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assists": 0.3603, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1437, "xgot": 0.1084, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7951 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goals": 0.1505, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "shots_on_target": 0.4054, "total_shots": 1.1717, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assists": 0.3603, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1385, "xgot": 0.1045, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7662, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "skill_edge": 0.0113, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.4963, "defender_skill": 0.4712, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "market_value": 4300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4712 } ], "xg_override": 0.1324 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2158, "after": 1.1717 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7951, "after": 0.7662 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4207, "after": 0.4054 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1562, "after": 0.1505 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1437, "after": 0.1385 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1374, "after": 0.1324 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4054, "total_shots": 1.1717, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1385, "xgot": 0.1045, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7662, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4054, "total_shots": 1.1717, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1385, "xgot": 0.1171, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7662, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0992, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1324, "after": 0.1484 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0764, "after": 0.0856 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4054, "total_shots": 1.1717, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1385, "xgot": 0.1171, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7662, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0992, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3534, "fifa_rank": 2415.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4054, "total_shots": 1.1717, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1385, "xgot": 0.1171, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7662, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0992, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1379, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "scorer_weight": 0.1631, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.1784, "finishing_factor": 1.0992, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4054, "total_shots": 1.1717, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 1.0004, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 72.56, "total_pass": 26.1624, "accurate_pass": 22.3127, "duels_won": 2.0108, "total_long_balls": 0.7815, "accurate_long_balls": 0.366, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4474, "crosses_total": 1.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.4696, "touches": 37.1945, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.7783, "duels_lost": 3.7701, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "total_contest": 1.787, "won_contest": 0.4707, "ball_recovery": 1.9348, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 0.9215, "fouls_drawn": 0.9102, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5865, "tackles_won": 0.4616, "tackles": 0.6161, "clearances": 0.4959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5449, "big_chances_missed": 0.1385, "xgot": 0.1171, "offsides": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 10.4034, "total_progression": 59.5527, "progressive_carries": 2.4185, "shots_off_target": 0.7662, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.082, "finishing_factor": 1.0992, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.3603, "provider_weight": 0.107, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.1773, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Iago Aspas": { "player_id": 19356, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 176, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1625, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 67, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2208, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.15, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0854, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0393, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1804, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 24 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.048, "expected_assists": 0.0637, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 52, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0628, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "expected_assists": 0.2911, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1065, "combined_rank_score": 479.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 568.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7839, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Iago Aspas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raz Shlomo", "ranking": 1060 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Leon Barišić", "ranking": 1061 }, { "player_name": "Chang-hoon Lee", "ranking": 1062 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "ranking": 1063 }, { "player_name": "Anatoliy Trubin", "ranking": 1064 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Hyun-muk Kang", "ranking": 1066 }, { "player_name": "Asadbek Rakhimjonov", "ranking": 1067 }, { "player_name": "Noni Madueke", "ranking": 1068 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Madrid", "ranking": 1069 }, { "player_name": "Marius Marin", "ranking": 1070 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 151.0, "goals_per90": 0.5882352941176471, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.38, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.5882352941176471, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1547, "goals": 0.1767, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "shots_on_target": 0.5363, "total_shots": 1.4308, "expected_assists": 0.0799, "key_pass": 0.8398, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.6543, "accurate_pass": 22.3725, "duels_won": 2.5991, "total_long_balls": 2.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3974, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1592, "crosses_total": 0.7893, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 37.3176, "possession_lost": 9.4181, "dispossessed": 0.6857, "duels_lost": 3.1751, "aerial_lost": 0.5106, "total_contest": 1.0302, "won_contest": 0.5282, "ball_recovery": 2.0544, "challenges_lost": 1.1412, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 1.0982, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3709, "tackles_won": 0.5208, "tackles": 0.6836, "clearances": 0.0757, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3164, "big_chances_missed": 0.0243, "xgot": 0.2102, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4165, "total_progression": 23.0185, "progressive_carries": 0.9192, "shots_off_target": 0.8945 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 52.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.8216, "expectedGoals": 0.0692, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 11.7345, "accuratePass": 16.0728, "totalShots": 0.8921 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.15470285713672638, "model_output": 0.1547, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0682 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.044, "total": 0.1547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.296741 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.223269 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.062651 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.045395 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.041192 } ], "others_margin": -0.25095 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.17672252655029297, "model_output": 0.1767, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0355, "total": 0.1767, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.281664 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.140517 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.080174 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050905 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.031685 } ], "others_margin": -0.182138 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5362552404403687, "model_output": 0.5363, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.18 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0718 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0473 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": -0.0648, "total": 0.5363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.288771 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.105463 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075988 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.049711 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.045441 } ], "others_margin": -0.114185 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.4307163953781128, "model_output": 1.4307, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4292 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2297 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0517 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0373 } ], "others": -0.0753, "total": 1.4307, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.429236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.229693 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.052905 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051691 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.037266 } ], "others_margin": -0.075337 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07991844415664673, "model_output": 0.0799, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": 0.002, "total": 0.0799, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.178679 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.145751 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.135295 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071582 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046948 } ], "others_margin": 0.025904 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8397940397262573, "model_output": 0.8398, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1568 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0763 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0684 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0568 } ], "others": 0.0124, "total": 0.8398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.209357 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.096423 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086802 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07256 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.066456 } ], "others_margin": 0.015023 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.783908367156982, "model_output": 6.7839, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0423, "total": 6.7839, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055863 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020567 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017988 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015072 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014426 } ], "others_margin": -0.042184 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1543, "goals": 0.1763, "goal_rate": 0.1763, "shots_on_target": 0.535, "total_shots": 1.4274, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7874, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3348, "fouls_drawn": 1.0956, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.5196, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0242, "xgot": 0.2097, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8924 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1543, "goals": 0.1785, "goal_rate": 0.1785, "shots_on_target": 0.538, "total_shots": 1.4303, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0242, "xgot": 0.2097, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8924 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0086, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7443, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7874, "after": 0.7807 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0956, "after": 1.09 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1543, "goals": 0.1785, "goal_rate": 0.1785, "shots_on_target": 0.538, "total_shots": 1.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0242, "xgot": 0.2097, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8924 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.145, "goals": 0.1677, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "shots_on_target": 0.5055, "total_shots": 1.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0227, "xgot": 0.197, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8384, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "skill_edge": -0.0111, "height_edge": -0.03, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4622, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "market_value": 4300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4712 }, { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 } ], "xg_override": 0.145 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4304, "after": 1.3439 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8924, "after": 0.8384 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.538, "after": 0.5055 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2097, "after": 0.197 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1785, "after": 0.1677 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1543, "after": 0.145 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.145, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5055, "total_shots": 1.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0227, "xgot": 0.197, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8384, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1625, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5055, "total_shots": 1.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0227, "xgot": 0.2208, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8384, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.145, "after": 0.1625 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0797, "after": 0.0893 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1625, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5055, "total_shots": 1.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0227, "xgot": 0.2208, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8384, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1065, "fifa_rank": 568.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1625, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5055, "total_shots": 1.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0227, "xgot": 0.2208, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8384, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.15, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.15, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "scorer_weight": 0.1814, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.1984, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1625, "goal_rate": 0.1677, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5055, "total_shots": 1.3439, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "key_pass": 0.8378, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 66.99, "total_pass": 28.5855, "accurate_pass": 22.3188, "duels_won": 2.5929, "total_long_balls": 2.6965, "accurate_long_balls": 1.394, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.7807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1183, "touches": 37.228, "possession_lost": 9.3955, "dispossessed": 0.6841, "duels_lost": 3.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 1.0277, "won_contest": 0.5269, "ball_recovery": 2.0495, "challenges_lost": 1.1385, "fouls": 0.3319, "fouls_drawn": 1.09, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3668, "tackles_won": 0.5152, "tackles": 0.682, "clearances": 0.0755, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3156, "big_chances_missed": 0.0227, "xgot": 0.2208, "offsides": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.3939, "total_progression": 22.9633, "progressive_carries": 0.917, "shots_off_target": 0.8384, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.15, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0854, "finishing_factor": 1.1164, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0854, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0714, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.1184, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "player_id": 949962, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2113, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3292, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1905, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0584, "finishing_factor": 1.0591, "creation_factor": 1.1842, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0609, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0624, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.468, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0939, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "expected_assists": 0.0949, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3438, "combined_rank_score": 1429.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 444.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9033, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 2414.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7205, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ferran Jutglà", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Rodríguez", "ranking": 3433 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Manning", "ranking": 3434 }, { "player_name": "Sebastiaan Bornauw", "ranking": 3435 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Melgarejo", "ranking": 3436 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Chorý", "ranking": 3437 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "César Tárrega", "ranking": 3439 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Stassin", "ranking": 3440 }, { "player_name": "Nelson Deossa", "ranking": 3441 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0009, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 233.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.39, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1919, "goals": 0.209, "goal_rate": 0.209, "shots_on_target": 0.6072, "total_shots": 1.5666, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.663, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9033, "accurate_pass": 11.0469, "duels_won": 3.3575, "total_long_balls": 1.1038, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3884, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.05, "crosses_total": 0.5851, "crosses_accurate": 0.1616, "touches": 28.6889, "possession_lost": 9.6587, "dispossessed": 0.8917, "duels_lost": 5.413, "aerial_lost": 1.7628, "total_contest": 1.9373, "won_contest": 0.6415, "ball_recovery": 2.2374, "challenges_lost": 0.2866, "fouls": 1.2598, "fouls_drawn": 1.5487, "assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0737, "interceptions": 0.2559, "tackles_won": 0.2329, "tackles": 0.4321, "clearances": 0.5875, "blocks": 0.0862, "big_chances_created": 0.109, "big_chances_missed": 0.1196, "xgot": 0.2993, "offsides": 0.5428, "ball_carries": 8.2715, "total_progression": 12.7549, "progressive_carries": 1.5515, "shots_off_target": 0.9593 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.583, "expectedGoals": 0.1339, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.9819, "accuratePass": 9.2173, "totalShots": 1.2449 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19190989434719086, "model_output": 0.1919, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 0.1919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.278091 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178401 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.058585 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.05194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.039094 } ], "others_margin": 0.021117 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.20898279547691345, "model_output": 0.209, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 0.209, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.281689 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181896 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.0675 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.061184 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.043792 } ], "others_margin": -0.0224 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6072174906730652, "model_output": 0.6072, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1752 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0213 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.6072, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.282125 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046935 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.042812 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.037765 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.034575 } ], "others_margin": 0.001642 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5665652751922607, "model_output": 1.5666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.461 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1514 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0584 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0325 } ], "others": 0.0186, "total": 1.5666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.460952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.151445 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.058422 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044474 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032507 } ], "others_margin": 0.018621 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.053624752908945084, "model_output": 0.0536, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 0.0536, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.219974 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.121684 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.088245 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.039822 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.033707 } ], "others_margin": -0.184164 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6630275249481201, "model_output": 0.663, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1863 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0595 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0322 } ], "others": -0.0163, "total": 0.663, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.244262 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06862 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.048831 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046261 } ], "others_margin": -0.024348 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720483779907227, "model_output": 6.7205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0665, "total": 6.7205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049173 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017538 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.013607 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011213 } ], "others_margin": -0.06645 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1921, "goals": 0.2092, "goal_rate": 0.2092, "shots_on_target": 0.6078, "total_shots": 1.568, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5856, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2609, "fouls_drawn": 1.5501, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "interceptions": 0.2561, "tackles_won": 0.2331, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1197, "xgot": 0.2996, "offsides": 0.5433, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9602 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0131)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1921, "goals": 0.2065, "goal_rate": 0.2065, "shots_on_target": 0.5998, "total_shots": 1.5516, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assists": 0.0728, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1197, "xgot": 0.2996, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9602 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0131, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8092, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.568, "after": 1.5516 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5501, "after": 1.5583 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6078, "after": 0.5998 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.5433, "after": 0.5362 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1921, "goals": 0.2065, "goal_rate": 0.2065, "shots_on_target": 0.5998, "total_shots": 1.56, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assists": 0.0728, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1197, "xgot": 0.2996, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9602 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1884, "goals": 0.2025, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "shots_on_target": 0.5881, "total_shots": 1.5296, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assists": 0.0728, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1174, "xgot": 0.2938, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "skill_edge": 0.0268, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.5306, "defender_skill": 0.4712, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "market_value": 4300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4712 } ], "xg_override": 0.1884 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.56, "after": 1.5296 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9602, "after": 0.9415 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5998, "after": 0.5881 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2996, "after": 0.2938 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1884, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5881, "total_shots": 1.5296, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1174, "xgot": 0.2938, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2113, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5881, "total_shots": 1.5296, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1174, "xgot": 0.3292, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0591, "creation_factor": 1.1842 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1884, "after": 0.2113 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0537, "after": 0.0602 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2113, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5881, "total_shots": 1.5296, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1174, "xgot": 0.3292, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0591, "creation_factor": 1.1842, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3438, "fifa_rank": 2414.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2113, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5881, "total_shots": 1.5296, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1174, "xgot": 0.3292, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1905, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0591, "creation_factor": 1.1842, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1905, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "scorer_weight": 0.2238, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.2448, "finishing_factor": 1.0591, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2113, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5881, "total_shots": 1.5296, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "key_pass": 0.6636, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 72.83, "total_pass": 14.9167, "accurate_pass": 11.0568, "duels_won": 3.3605, "total_long_balls": 1.1048, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0563, "crosses_total": 0.5861, "crosses_accurate": 0.1617, "touches": 28.7147, "possession_lost": 9.6674, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 5.4179, "aerial_lost": 1.7644, "total_contest": 1.939, "won_contest": 0.6421, "ball_recovery": 2.2394, "challenges_lost": 0.2869, "fouls": 1.2566, "fouls_drawn": 1.5583, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4325, "clearances": 0.588, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.1091, "big_chances_missed": 0.1174, "xgot": 0.3292, "offsides": 0.5362, "ball_carries": 8.2789, "total_progression": 12.7664, "progressive_carries": 1.5529, "shots_off_target": 0.9415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1905, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0584, "finishing_factor": 1.0591, "creation_factor": 1.1842, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "provider_weight": 0.0713, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.1181, "creation_factor": 1.1842, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Javi Galán": { "player_id": 825133, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 172, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 76, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0056, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0736, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "expected_assists": 0.0776, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1573, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3078, "combined_rank_score": 1045.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 536.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.828, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 1554.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7989, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 }, { "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking": 3074 }, { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 }, { "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking": 3077 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 }, { "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking": 3080 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Ruibal", "ranking": 3081 }, { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 }, { "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking": 3083 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.765, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9973, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 134.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 32 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.10, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8424, "tackles": 1.6833, "tackles_won": 1.0502, "clearances": 1.9427, "aerial_won": 0.5906, "total_shots": 0.3869, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.9089, "accurate_pass": 28.9334, "duels_won": 4.9131, "total_long_balls": 4.202, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9214, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2334, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7, "crosses_total": 3.8449, "crosses_accurate": 1.1006, "touches": 58.7127, "possession_lost": 12.4223, "dispossessed": 0.2658, "duels_lost": 3.418, "aerial_lost": 0.8402, "total_contest": 1.795, "won_contest": 1.028, "ball_recovery": 2.8727, "challenges_lost": 0.5218, "fouls": 1.2508, "fouls_drawn": 1.9242, "blocks": 0.35, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0059, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "shots_on_target": 0.007, "big_chances_created": 0.0292, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 15.7262, "total_progression": 76.2354, "progressive_carries": 1.2443, "key_pass": 0.8623, "shots_off_target": 0.3799 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 0.9456, "aerialWon": 0.2954, "totalClearance_p90": 1.0716, "totalTackle": 1.2171, "defensive_actions": 1.89 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8423566818237305, "model_output": 0.8424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1179 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0089, "total": 0.8424, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128336 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.046292 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041715 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.037113 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014343 } ], "others_margin": -0.010618 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6832748651504517, "model_output": 1.6833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1801 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0858 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0332 } ], "others": 0.0517, "total": 1.6833, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121707 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.053174 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02869 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.024193 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.02016 } ], "others_margin": 0.031137 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.0502265691757202, "model_output": 1.0502, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1057 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0307 } ], "others": 0.089, "total": 1.0502, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116682 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.043306 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.042312 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.031737 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.031409 } ], "others_margin": 0.088633 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.9426997900009155, "model_output": 1.9427, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8077 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3278 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3226 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2011 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.179 } ], "others": -0.3074, "total": 1.9427, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.268274 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117662 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.115702 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.079542 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076543 } ], "others_margin": -0.14688 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.590631902217865, "model_output": 0.5906, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5438 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1171 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0819 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0504 } ], "others": -0.0724, "total": 0.5906, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.5023 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.151378 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.126143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121926 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.073248 } ], "others_margin": -0.115553 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38694995641708374, "model_output": 0.3869, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1414 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 0.3869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.141445 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051773 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.020662 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.011 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.009883 } ], "others_margin": -0.019658 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7989301681518555, "model_output": 6.7989, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 6.7989, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050338 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020784 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016621 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013476 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.008117 } ], "others_margin": 0.022886 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8401, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0474, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3859, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8345, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2474, "fouls_drawn": 1.919, "blocks": 0.3491, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0059, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.007, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3825, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8568, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0682, "after": 0.0764 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3078, "fifa_rank": 1554.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0056, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0056, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0051, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0056, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8377, "tackles": 1.6787, "tackles_won": 1.0482, "clearances": 1.9375, "aerial_won": 0.589, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7989, "minutes": 77.11, "total_pass": 34.8146, "accurate_pass": 28.8553, "duels_won": 4.8998, "total_long_balls": 4.1907, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9162, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1923, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.663, "crosses_total": 3.8309, "crosses_accurate": 1.0976, "touches": 58.5542, "possession_lost": 12.3888, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 3.4088, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 1.7902, "won_contest": 1.0252, "ball_recovery": 2.8649, "challenges_lost": 0.5204, "fouls": 1.2465, "fouls_drawn": 1.9222, "blocks": 0.3491, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.0069, "big_chances_created": 0.0291, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 15.6837, "total_progression": 76.0296, "progressive_carries": 1.2409, "key_pass": 0.86, "shots_off_target": 0.3789, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0056, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0736, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0736, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "provider_weight": 0.0611, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.1013, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Hugo Burcio": { "player_id": 1858279, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 187, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1221, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0484, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.947, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1613, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1455, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083226, "match_date": "2026-01-18", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6738, "combined_rank_score": 5062.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 9427.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7455, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Burcio", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Medina", "ranking": 6733 }, { "player_name": "José Gragera", "ranking": 6734 }, { "player_name": "Atienza", "ranking": 6735 }, { "player_name": "Javi Castro", "ranking": 6736 }, { "player_name": "Isma Ruiz", "ranking": 6737 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ismaël Gharbi", "ranking": 6739 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sala", "ranking": 6740 }, { "player_name": "Juanma Herzog", "ranking": 6741 }, { "player_name": "Mihai Popescu", "ranking": 6742 }, { "player_name": "Sondre Auklend", "ranking": 6743 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9887, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5902, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0868, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.312, "total_shots": 1.0461, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5866, "accurate_pass": 6.5526, "duels_won": 1.3664, "total_long_balls": 0.8944, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5806, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5405, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7542, "possession_lost": 2.028, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8073, "aerial_won": 0.2267, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3138, "tackles_won": 0.2267, "tackles": 0.4194, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4535, "won_contest": 0.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.2667, "fouls": 0.3138, "fouls_drawn": 0.4935, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1115, "ball_carries": 4.3413, "total_progression": 19.0225, "progressive_carries": 0.7602, "shots_off_target": 0.7341 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-18", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.4935, "creative_index": 0.0062, "expectedGoals": 0.076, "expectedAssists": 0.0103, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2667 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5901666879653931, "model_output": 0.5902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1467 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1369 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1085 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0826 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.043 } ], "others": -0.1645, "total": 0.5902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.152075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.141207 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.12804 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.109843 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.058692 } ], "others_margin": -0.245839 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04484112933278084, "model_output": 0.0448, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0448, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.232378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.226094 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.160975 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.11285 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085019 } ], "others_margin": -0.151663 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.039785634726285934, "model_output": 0.0398, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.0398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.219612 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.214082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.109282 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.104268 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101084 } ], "others_margin": -0.255412 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08677242696285248, "model_output": 0.0868, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.0868, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.189506 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.156047 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.107166 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.050307 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048941 } ], "others_margin": -0.057598 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1498035341501236, "model_output": 0.1498, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0233, "total": 0.1498, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142587 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137173 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.091385 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.08272 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.078182 } ], "others_margin": 0.168816 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3119810223579407, "model_output": 0.312, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0833 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.312, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.295381 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.156081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.117847 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.059601 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.046332 } ], "others_margin": -0.008402 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0460560321807861, "model_output": 1.0461, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2476 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1444 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0967 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0308 } ], "others": -0.0429, "total": 1.0461, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.247632 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144365 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.096656 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.069151 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.030761 } ], "others_margin": -0.04278 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.745462894439697, "model_output": 6.7455, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0701 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": -0.0354, "total": 6.7455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07008 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040865 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.031468 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026417 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019074 } ], "others_margin": -0.035459 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "assists": 0.0393, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "expected_goals": 0.0858, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.3085, "total_shots": 1.0343, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7258 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "assists": 0.0393, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "expected_goals": 0.0858, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.3085, "total_shots": 1.0343, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7258 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "assists": 0.0393, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goals": 0.1465, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 1.0233, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "skill_edge": -0.0152, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4712, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "market_value": 4300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4712 } ], "xg_override": 0.0849 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2241, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0343, "after": 1.0233 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7258, "after": 0.7181 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 1.0233, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 1.0233, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1221, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.947 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0849, "after": 0.0951 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0443, "after": 0.0496 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 1.0233, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1221, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.947, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6738, "fifa_rank": 9427.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 1.0233, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1221, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.947, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "scorer_weight": 0.1189, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.13, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5835, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 1.0233, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 86.0, "total_pass": 7.5009, "accurate_pass": 6.4786, "duels_won": 1.351, "total_long_balls": 0.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 0.574, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5231, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6327, "possession_lost": 2.0051, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7982, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.4147, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4484, "won_contest": 0.2242, "challenges_lost": 0.2637, "fouls": 0.3103, "fouls_drawn": 0.4879, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1221, "ball_carries": 4.2922, "total_progression": 18.8075, "progressive_carries": 0.7516, "shots_off_target": 0.7181, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0484, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.947, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "provider_weight": 0.047, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0778, "creation_factor": 0.947, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Aleix Febas": { "player_id": 286167, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 168, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 31, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0085, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0901, "finishing_factor": 0.9899, "creation_factor": 0.886, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 61, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083743, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 4, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1437, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 61, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1257, "expected_assists": 0.074, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3367, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083252, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0871, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 78, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083132, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 8, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1425, "combined_rank_score": 591.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 223.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1583, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 959.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aleix Febas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mattéo Guendouzi", "ranking": 1420 }, { "player_name": "Maxim De Cuyper", "ranking": 1421 }, { "player_name": "Denis Zakaria", "ranking": 1422 }, { "player_name": "Oleg Zoteev", "ranking": 1423 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Ochilov", "ranking": 1424 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Seong-uh Park", "ranking": 1426 }, { "player_name": "Umarbek Eshmuradov", "ranking": 1427 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Meunier", "ranking": 1428 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Murphy", "ranking": 1429 }, { "player_name": "Warren Zaïre-Emery", "ranking": 1430 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9986, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 166.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.54, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7708, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "goals": 0.0728, "goal_rate": 0.0728, "shots_on_target": 0.3283, "total_shots": 0.8106, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 45.0317, "accurate_pass": 40.1932, "duels_won": 6.3712, "total_long_balls": 1.2115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6608, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2864, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0939, "crosses_total": 0.405, "crosses_accurate": 0.086, "touches": 58.6531, "possession_lost": 9.0433, "dispossessed": 0.6858, "duels_lost": 4.8135, "aerial_won": 0.1092, "aerial_lost": 0.4714, "interceptions": 0.5334, "tackles_won": 1.1026, "tackles": 2.3377, "clearances": 0.484, "total_contest": 2.0676, "won_contest": 0.7314, "challenges_lost": 0.7756, "fouls": 1.5716, "fouls_drawn": 3.206, "blocks": 0.2389, "big_chances_created": 0.0932, "big_chances_missed": 0.0014, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 17.3326, "total_progression": 89.9983, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.4823 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.4034, "creative_index": 0.1735, "expectedGoals": 0.0337, "expectedAssists": 0.0646, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1359 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7708234190940857, "model_output": 0.7708, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1175 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1125 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0649 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0294 } ], "others": -0.054, "total": 0.7708, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12364 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.118082 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.07497 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.04628 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.036302 } ], "others_margin": -0.067717 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08435430377721786, "model_output": 0.0844, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0844, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.163054 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128573 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.069944 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.068532 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062203 } ], "others_margin": -0.041438 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06960682570934296, "model_output": 0.0696, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.0696, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.15864 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.11664 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.078662 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.070993 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.050357 } ], "others_margin": -0.125794 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07351237535476685, "model_output": 0.0735, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0179, "total": 0.0735, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.197901 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.110865 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087087 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.039349 } ], "others_margin": -0.217942 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07275546342134476, "model_output": 0.0728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.0728, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.221769 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073819 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.070859 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032884 } ], "others_margin": -0.169087 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.32826003432273865, "model_output": 0.3283, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0717 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.3283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.248709 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.162574 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.124907 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051857 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032628 } ], "others_margin": -0.011803 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8105403780937195, "model_output": 0.8105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2596 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1503 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0889 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0216 } ], "others": -0.1108, "total": 0.8105, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.259616 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.150349 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.088901 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.032224 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.021591 } ], "others_margin": -0.110814 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.872421741485596, "model_output": 6.8724, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0954 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0192 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 6.8724, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.095398 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035774 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026613 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020848 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019242 } ], "others_margin": -0.045103 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "assists": 0.0695, "assist_rate": 0.0695, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.3278, "total_shots": 0.8094, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.109, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5327, "tackles_won": 1.1011, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5694, "fouls_drawn": 3.2015, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0014, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4816 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0089)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "assists": 0.0689, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "goals": 0.0721, "goal_rate": 0.0721, "shots_on_target": 0.3294, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.109, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0014, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4816 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0089, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9408, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5694, "after": 1.5787 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "assists": 0.0689, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "goals": 0.0721, "goal_rate": 0.0721, "shots_on_target": 0.3294, "total_shots": 0.811, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.109, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0014, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4816 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "assists": 0.0689, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.068, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 0.7649, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0013, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4542, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "skill_edge": 0.0053, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.4717, "defender_skill": 0.46, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.46 } ], "xg_override": 0.0692 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.109, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.811, "after": 0.7649 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4816, "after": 0.4542 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3294, "after": 0.3107 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 0.7649, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0013, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4542, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 0.7649, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0013, "xgot": 0.0085, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4542, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9899, "creation_factor": 0.886 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0692, "after": 0.0775 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0842, "after": 0.0944 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 0.7649, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0013, "xgot": 0.0085, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4542, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9899, "creation_factor": 0.886, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1425, "fifa_rank": 959.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 0.7649, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0013, "xgot": 0.0085, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4542, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9899, "creation_factor": 0.886, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.068, "scorer_weight": 0.0767, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0839, "finishing_factor": 0.9899, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7697, "expected_assists": 0.0944, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3107, "total_shots": 0.7649, "rating": 6.8724, "minutes": 84.67, "total_pass": 44.9687, "accurate_pass": 40.1369, "duels_won": 6.3623, "total_long_balls": 1.2098, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7022, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.056, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0859, "touches": 58.571, "possession_lost": 9.0306, "dispossessed": 0.6848, "duels_lost": 4.8068, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "interceptions": 0.5326, "tackles_won": 1.1006, "tackles": 2.3344, "clearances": 0.4833, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.7745, "fouls": 1.5787, "fouls_drawn": 3.2056, "blocks": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0013, "xgot": 0.0085, "ball_carries": 17.3083, "total_progression": 89.8723, "progressive_carries": 2.1371, "shots_off_target": 0.4542, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0901, "finishing_factor": 0.9899, "creation_factor": 0.886, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0901, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "provider_weight": 0.0836, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.1386, "creation_factor": 0.886, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Álvaro Núñez": { "player_id": 1012410, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 174, "market_value": 3900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0156, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0638, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0054, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 72, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083248, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083123, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.015, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3210, "combined_rank_score": 1161.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1987.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8168, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Núñez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Franck Honorat", "ranking": 3205 }, { "player_name": "Djibril Sow", "ranking": 3206 }, { "player_name": "Pepelu", "ranking": 3207 }, { "player_name": "Dayann Methalie", "ranking": 3208 }, { "player_name": "Robin Gosens", "ranking": 3209 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marvin Schwäbe", "ranking": 3211 }, { "player_name": "Moi Gómez", "ranking": 3212 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Henrichs", "ranking": 3213 }, { "player_name": "Harvey Elliott", "ranking": 3214 }, { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 3215 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9975, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 173.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.52, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 29 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7741, "tackles": 1.4497, "tackles_won": 0.9151, "clearances": 2.0674, "aerial_won": 0.6237, "total_shots": 0.573, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 52.0805, "accurate_pass": 47.4913, "duels_won": 2.5986, "total_long_balls": 3.7424, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9247, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4657, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0257, "crosses_total": 1.4937, "crosses_accurate": 0.2644, "touches": 63.7191, "possession_lost": 7.0984, "dispossessed": 0.0424, "duels_lost": 2.0905, "aerial_lost": 0.6085, "total_contest": 0.2112, "won_contest": 0.1429, "ball_recovery": 2.5757, "challenges_lost": 0.6031, "fouls": 0.7741, "fouls_drawn": 0.623, "blocks": 0.1581, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0208, "assist_rate": 0.0208, "expected_goals": 0.014, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "shots_on_target": 0.2797, "big_chances_created": 0.06, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 19.0904, "total_progression": 47.4453, "progressive_carries": 0.8803, "key_pass": 0.4388, "shots_off_target": 0.2933 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.1161, "aerialWon": 0.3163, "totalClearance_p90": 1.1839, "totalTackle": 1.4238, "defensive_actions": 1.9586 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7740734219551086, "model_output": 0.7741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1198 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0361 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0246 } ], "others": -0.0252, "total": 0.7741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130245 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.088322 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.043005 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.042899 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.030304 } ], "others_margin": -0.031996 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.449732780456543, "model_output": 1.4497, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1738 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0321 } ], "others": -0.1568, "total": 1.4497, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117708 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.034408 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.034294 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022948 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.019761 } ], "others_margin": -0.102708 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9151391983032227, "model_output": 0.9151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1032 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": -0.161, "total": 0.9151, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114104 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.038616 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.027565 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.025779 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.024958 } ], "others_margin": -0.162072 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.0674240589141846, "model_output": 2.0674, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8044 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3316 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3234 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2198 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.174 } ], "others": -0.1753, "total": 2.0674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.267019 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118806 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.115689 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.087049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074713 } ], "others_margin": -0.081389 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6237340569496155, "model_output": 0.6237, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5446 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1073 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0985 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0917 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0366 } ], "others": -0.0719, "total": 0.6237, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.503238 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.137985 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1273 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.118015 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051249 } ], "others_margin": -0.108977 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5730196237564087, "model_output": 0.573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0251, "total": 0.573, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064931 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037585 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022652 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.010723 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.009093 } ], "others_margin": -0.025019 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.816758632659912, "model_output": 6.8168, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0061 } ], "others": -0.012, "total": 6.8168, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.023055 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013943 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.013452 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012489 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0061 } ], "others_margin": -0.012004 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9129, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5716, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.49, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7722, "fouls_drawn": 0.6214, "blocks": 0.1577, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0207, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "expected_goals": 0.014, "expected_assists": 0.0588, "shots_on_target": 0.279, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3900000, "quality_factor": 0.4486, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0121)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5704, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0204, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "expected_goals": 0.014, "expected_assists": 0.0588, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0121, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9022, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7721, "after": 0.78 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.49, "after": 1.4835 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9129, "after": 0.9076 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5739, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0204, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "expected_goals": 0.014, "expected_assists": 0.0588, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5739, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0204, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "expected_goals": 0.014, "expected_assists": 0.0588, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5739, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "expected_assists": 0.0588, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5739, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0588, "after": 0.0659 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5739, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3210, "fifa_rank": 1987.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5739, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0156, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0156, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0126, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0137, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.4461, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 2.0623, "aerial_won": 0.6222, "total_shots": 0.5739, "rating": 6.8168, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 51.9503, "accurate_pass": 47.3726, "duels_won": 2.5921, "total_long_balls": 3.733, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9199, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0604, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4045, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.89, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9681, "crosses_total": 1.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 63.5598, "possession_lost": 7.0807, "dispossessed": 0.0423, "duels_lost": 2.0853, "aerial_lost": 0.607, "total_contest": 0.2107, "won_contest": 0.1425, "ball_recovery": 2.5693, "challenges_lost": 0.6016, "fouls": 0.7743, "fouls_drawn": 0.6196, "blocks": 0.1577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "shots_on_target": 0.2813, "big_chances_created": 0.0599, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 19.0427, "total_progression": 47.3267, "progressive_carries": 0.8781, "key_pass": 0.4377, "shots_off_target": 0.2926, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0156, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0638, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "provider_weight": 0.0527, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0874, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Yoel Lago": { "player_id": 1145100, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 185, "market_value": 7000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0129, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0909, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 70, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 68, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4693, "combined_rank_score": 2782.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 542.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.825, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 5023.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8329, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yoel Lago", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Enzo Leopold", "ranking": 4688 }, { "player_name": "Yannik Engelhardt", "ranking": 4689 }, { "player_name": "Adam Daghim", "ranking": 4690 }, { "player_name": "Badredine Bouanani", "ranking": 4691 }, { "player_name": "Aljoscha Kemlein", "ranking": 4692 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joel Latibeaudiere", "ranking": 4694 }, { "player_name": "Mats Rots", "ranking": 4695 }, { "player_name": "Ellis Simms", "ranking": 4696 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Højlund", "ranking": 4697 }, { "player_name": "Yannick Gerhardt", "ranking": 4698 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.785, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 20, "data_confidence": 0.785, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 315.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 20 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.23, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1835, "tackles": 1.4207, "tackles_won": 0.7902, "clearances": 5.2821, "aerial_won": 1.715, "total_shots": 0.3633, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.1305, "accurate_pass": 48.0096, "duels_won": 3.5919, "total_long_balls": 2.8894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3742, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7618, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2478, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9804, "possession_lost": 3.6845, "dispossessed": 0.1341, "duels_lost": 3.9199, "aerial_lost": 1.4815, "total_contest": 0.0671, "won_contest": 0.0671, "ball_recovery": 3.3939, "challenges_lost": 0.1501, "fouls": 2.1543, "fouls_drawn": 1.0664, "blocks": 1.0293, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8738, "total_progression": 63.9312, "progressive_carries": 0.5081, "key_pass": 0.1333, "shots_off_target": 0.3633 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.156, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1326, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1127, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0958, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0815, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0692, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0589, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.05, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0425, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0361, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.6556, "aerialWon": 0.8134, "totalClearance_p90": 5.8735, "totalTackle": 1.5878, "defensive_actions": 3.2735 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.183542251586914, "model_output": 1.1835, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1169 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.097 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0072, "total": 1.1835, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127305 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.094627 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.037105 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.03479 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018379 } ], "others_margin": 0.006114 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.4207470417022705, "model_output": 1.4207, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1708 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0913 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0573 } ], "others": -0.2254, "total": 1.4207, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115772 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.060244 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.039166 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.037813 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.035428 } ], "others_margin": -0.147139 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7901836037635803, "model_output": 0.7902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1047 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0545 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0509 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.041 } ], "others": -0.1474, "total": 0.7902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11566 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058567 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.057946 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.049244 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.04474 } ], "others_margin": -0.170993 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.282093524932861, "model_output": 5.2821, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5558 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3752 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2892 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.2342 } ], "others": -0.3224, "total": 5.2821, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.189792 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125673 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076701 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.055358 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.042688 } ], "others_margin": -0.059246 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.714961051940918, "model_output": 1.715, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1632 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.135 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1139 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0793 } ], "others": 0.0819, "total": 1.715, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.187639 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133579 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.09843 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.07615 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.049754 } ], "others_margin": 0.048981 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.36332324147224426, "model_output": 0.3633, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0379, "total": 0.3633, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.114272 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048414 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022972 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021994 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008356 } ], "others_margin": -0.037941 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.832885265350342, "model_output": 6.8329, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 6.8329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.022196 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021613 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.017275 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01265 } ], "others_margin": -0.012905 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1822, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7893, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1519, "fouls_drawn": 1.0652, "blocks": 1.0282, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0303)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3519, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0303, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9912, "prior_reliability": 0.2333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.1519, "after": 2.1382 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3629, "after": 0.3519 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0086 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1822, "after": 1.1893 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7893, "after": 0.7825 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8117 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4693, "fifa_rank": 5023.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0151, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0122, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1893, "tackles": 1.4192, "tackles_won": 0.7825, "clearances": 5.2763, "aerial_won": 1.7131, "total_shots": 0.3629, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 51.0743, "accurate_pass": 47.9568, "duels_won": 3.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.8862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3727, "total_own_half_passes": 33.8883, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7258, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1861, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.231, "crosses_total": 0.0086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9078, "possession_lost": 3.6804, "dispossessed": 0.134, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_lost": 1.4799, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "ball_recovery": 3.3902, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 2.1382, "fouls_drawn": 1.0673, "blocks": 1.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8563, "total_progression": 63.8609, "progressive_carries": 0.5075, "key_pass": 0.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.3629, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0151, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0129, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0106, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0175, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Sebastián Cáceres": { "player_id": 924889, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 183, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0133, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0129, "finishing_factor": 0.8065, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3519, "combined_rank_score": 1493.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 499.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 2487.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8202, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sebastián Cáceres", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Grischa Prömel", "ranking": 3514 }, { "player_name": "Pol Lozano", "ranking": 3515 }, { "player_name": "Aurèle Amenda", "ranking": 3516 }, { "player_name": "Manu Morlanes", "ranking": 3517 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Claude-Maurice", "ranking": 3518 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Caci", "ranking": 3520 }, { "player_name": "Amar Memić", "ranking": 3521 }, { "player_name": "Miro Muheim", "ranking": 3522 }, { "player_name": "Aarón Martín", "ranking": 3523 }, { "player_name": "Robin Hack", "ranking": 3524 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9884, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0954, "tackles": 1.9012, "tackles_won": 1.0457, "clearances": 3.5085, "aerial_won": 1.569, "total_shots": 0.566, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.1892, "accurate_pass": 49.7297, "duels_won": 6.0, "total_long_balls": 4.4595, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4595, "total_own_half_passes": 32.0811, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7297, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3784, "dispossessed": 0.4595, "duels_lost": 2.8378, "aerial_lost": 0.9189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3784, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 1.5405, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0121, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2973, "total_progression": 59.8421, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.566 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.0, "aerialWon": 2.3784, "totalClearance_p90": 3.0, "totalTackle": 2.0811, "defensive_actions": 3.1622 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0954090356826782, "model_output": 1.0954, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0991 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0704, "total": 1.0954, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108964 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.045511 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.018269 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.013843 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012111 } ], "others_margin": 0.066459 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.9011814594268799, "model_output": 1.9012, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1995 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.1054 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0901 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0807 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0732 } ], "others": -0.0392, "total": 1.9012, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133965 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.064151 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.051766 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.044161 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.038473 } ], "others_margin": -0.020427 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.045724630355835, "model_output": 1.0457, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1302 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0701 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0593 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0476 } ], "others": -0.0752, "total": 1.0457, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141894 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.068802 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.054696 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.04791 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.04157 } ], "others_margin": -0.069393 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.5084502696990967, "model_output": 3.5085, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4551 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2798 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2358 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.1736 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1643 } ], "others": 0.1456, "total": 3.5085, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124503 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.074676 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.067583 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.052857 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05009 } ], "others_margin": 0.042341 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.5690120458602905, "model_output": 1.569, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.199 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1391 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0571 } ], "others": 0.0233, "total": 1.569, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.209174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110848 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.085148 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.083235 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.036276 } ], "others_margin": 0.014949 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5659679770469666, "model_output": 0.566, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0363, "total": 0.566, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057771 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.041652 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026256 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019828 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.017764 } ], "others_margin": -0.036276 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.820199966430664, "model_output": 6.8202, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 6.8202, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035548 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.024819 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.011853 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010601 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.008998 } ], "others_margin": -0.017123 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9884, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9884, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8065, "creation_factor": 0.8117 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8065, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3519, "fifa_rank": 2487.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0133, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8065, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0108, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0118, "finishing_factor": 0.8065, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0827, "tackles": 1.8791, "tackles_won": 1.0336, "clearances": 3.4678, "aerial_won": 1.5508, "total_shots": 0.5594, "rating": 6.8202, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0619, "total_progression": 59.1479, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5594, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0133, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0129, "finishing_factor": 0.8065, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0106, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0175, "creation_factor": 0.8117, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Ionuț Radu": { "player_id": 815202, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 188, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 40, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8739, "shots_faced": 8.1, "expected_saves": 1.99, "high_pressure_saves": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.4156 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.2452 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.3323 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.0814 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 1.0407 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 38, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.8261 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6642 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1435 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.404 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 26, "saves": 8, "goals_prevented": 0.7293 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1679, "combined_rank_score": 681.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 129.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.375, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1234.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9357, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ionuț Radu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Burkardt", "ranking": 1674 }, { "player_name": "Reinildo", "ranking": 1675 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1676 }, { "player_name": "Davide Zappacosta", "ranking": 1677 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Fernández", "ranking": 1678 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Beom-su Lee", "ranking": 1680 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-oh Kim", "ranking": 1681 }, { "player_name": "Osvaldo Bosso", "ranking": 1682 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Pacheco", "ranking": 1683 }, { "player_name": "Jovany Campusano", "ranking": 1684 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.79, "history_matches": 46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 46, "data_confidence": 0.79, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "minutes": 360.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 46 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.27, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8809, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9281, "accurate_pass": 20.8964, "total_long_balls": 11.8163, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8477, "touches": 39.9488, "clearances": 1.2854, "ball_recovery": 10.3678, "high_claims": 0.7817, "punches": 0.8072, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7263, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7263, "saves_inside_box": 1.5228, "possession_lost": 8.0796, "duels_won": 0.6319, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1872, "won_contest": 0.1872, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2438, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7281, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0506 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:04:16.386956+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0783, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 3.8476, "save_contribution": 3.1295, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9635, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 18.0506, "passValueNormalized": 0.0361, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 18.7281 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.880889654159546, "model_output": 2.8809, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0776 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": -0.0447, "total": 2.8809, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.02675 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.02126 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.021131 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.01093 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010436 } ], "others_margin": -0.015409 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.060374677181243896, "model_output": -0.0604, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0292, "total": -0.0604, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.02478 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014295 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013112 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012609 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.01207 } ], "others_margin": -0.029096 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.935749053955078, "model_output": 6.9357, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0379, "total": 6.9357, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.018922 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017921 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.01769 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.01649 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014231 } ], "others_margin": -0.037844 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "saves": 2.882, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2439, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0170)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.017, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.882, "after": 2.8925 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8739, "shots_faced": 8.3, "expected_saves": 2.03, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.8739 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8739, "shots_faced": 8.3, "expected_saves": 2.03, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8739, "shots_faced": 8.1, "expected_saves": 1.99, "high_pressure_saves": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.3, "after": 8.1 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.03, "after": 1.99 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.7, "after": 0.68 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8739, "shots_faced": 8.1, "expected_saves": 1.99, "high_pressure_saves": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1679, "fifa_rank": 1234.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8739, "shots_faced": 8.1, "expected_saves": 1.99, "high_pressure_saves": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 2.8925, "goals_prevented": -0.0604, "rating": 6.9357, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9397, "accurate_pass": 20.9048, "total_long_balls": 11.821, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8492, "touches": 39.9648, "clearances": 1.2859, "ball_recovery": 10.3719, "high_claims": 0.782, "punches": 0.8075, "aerial_won": 0.0585, "sweeper_actions": 0.7266, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7266, "saves_inside_box": 1.5234, "possession_lost": 8.0828, "duels_won": 0.6322, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1873, "won_contest": 0.1873, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.244, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8739, "shots_faced": 8.1, "expected_saves": 1.99, "high_pressure_saves": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } } ] }, "Marcos Alonso": { "player_id": 69408, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 188, "market_value": 1300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 67, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 37, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 88, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 33, "total_progression": 191, "progressive_carries": 3, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0453, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0843, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 64, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 75, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 51, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 66, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2348, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 106, "accurate_pass": 97, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 76, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "expected_assists": 0.1142, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 99, "accurate_pass": 87, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1501, "combined_rank_score": 619.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 294.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0469, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0592, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcos Alonso", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ermedin Demirović", "ranking": 1496 }, { "player_name": "Julio Enciso", "ranking": 1497 }, { "player_name": "Johnny Cardoso", "ranking": 1498 }, { "player_name": "Jerdy Schouten", "ranking": 1499 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-je Kang", "ranking": 1500 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eduardo Vargas", "ranking": 1502 }, { "player_name": "Tomislav Uskok", "ranking": 1503 }, { "player_name": "Jeison Fuentealba", "ranking": 1504 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Rivera", "ranking": 1505 }, { "player_name": "Dong-hyun Kang", "ranking": 1506 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 230.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.78, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1529, "tackles": 1.434, "tackles_won": 0.9505, "clearances": 3.7482, "aerial_won": 1.4984, "total_shots": 0.5359, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.9571, "accurate_pass": 66.7493, "duels_won": 3.8925, "total_long_balls": 8.5683, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7424, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3544, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.4603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3948, "crosses_total": 0.5169, "crosses_accurate": 0.0725, "touches": 87.9881, "possession_lost": 10.0963, "dispossessed": 0.3741, "duels_lost": 3.1373, "aerial_lost": 0.784, "total_contest": 0.473, "won_contest": 0.2719, "ball_recovery": 4.8114, "challenges_lost": 0.4989, "fouls": 1.2918, "fouls_drawn": 0.7806, "blocks": 0.5868, "goals": 0.0062, "goal_rate": 0.0062, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "shots_on_target": 0.0165, "big_chances_created": 0.0612, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.2282, "total_progression": 191.6481, "progressive_carries": 2.5981, "key_pass": 0.1034, "shots_off_target": 0.5194 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 51.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.5041, "aerialWon": 1.5336, "totalClearance_p90": 4.7764, "totalTackle": 1.4337, "defensive_actions": 2.4911 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1529213190078735, "model_output": 1.1529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1198 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0219 } ], "others": 0.0637, "total": 1.1529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130327 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033208 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.029078 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.022334 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.020308 } ], "others_margin": 0.056851 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.4340498447418213, "model_output": 1.434, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1813 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0693 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0489 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0302 } ], "others": -0.0952, "total": 1.434, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122481 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.043137 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.030219 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.021433 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.019547 } ], "others_margin": -0.064304 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9505396485328674, "model_output": 0.9505, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.117 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.9505, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128404 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.035572 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.024553 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.024016 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.02359 } ], "others_margin": -0.010055 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.748220443725586, "model_output": 3.7482, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3963 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3698 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3417 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.1479 } ], "others": -0.3104, "total": 3.7482, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109257 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.100692 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091368 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.084716 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.0358 } ], "others_margin": -0.079573 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4984259605407715, "model_output": 1.4984, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1341 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0935 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0797 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0721 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.068 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 1.4984, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.092922 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.060051 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.048437 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.043717 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.043058 } ], "others_margin": -0.030353 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5359094142913818, "model_output": 0.5359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.5359, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038104 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.034845 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.023722 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021456 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.020159 } ], "others_margin": 0.010885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0591535568237305, "model_output": 7.0592, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0889 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0658 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 7.0592, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088924 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.065771 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.043344 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038874 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025989 } ], "others_margin": 0.011549 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1502, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9483, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5347, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5157, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.7787, "blocks": 0.5854, "goals": 0.0062, "goal_rate": 0.0062, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "shots_on_target": 0.0165, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0131)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goals": 0.0061, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0131, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.963, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1502, "after": 1.1739 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9483, "after": 0.9553 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goals": 0.0061, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goals": 0.0061, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182, "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182, "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182, "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182, "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1501, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182, "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0407, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "scorer_weight": 0.0332, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0363, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.4306, "tackles_won": 0.9553, "clearances": 3.7392, "aerial_won": 1.4948, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 7.0592, "minutes": 86.67, "total_pass": 74.7772, "accurate_pass": 66.5891, "duels_won": 3.8832, "total_long_balls": 8.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 4.731, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.2695, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3704, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.3195, "crosses_total": 0.5186, "crosses_accurate": 0.0723, "touches": 87.7769, "possession_lost": 10.0721, "dispossessed": 0.3732, "duels_lost": 3.1298, "aerial_lost": 0.7821, "total_contest": 0.4719, "won_contest": 0.2712, "ball_recovery": 4.7999, "challenges_lost": 0.4977, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7782, "blocks": 0.5854, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.0163, "big_chances_created": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 33.1485, "total_progression": 191.1881, "progressive_carries": 2.5919, "key_pass": 0.1032, "shots_off_target": 0.5182, "opponent_faced": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0453, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0371, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0615, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Altay Bayındır": { "player_id": 815890, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 198, "market_value": 4900000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0042, "rating": 7.0269, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 6, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.032, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 1.8429, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14025184, "match_date": "2025-09-27", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0263 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025169, "match_date": "2025-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4062 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025142, "match_date": "2025-09-14", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.7035 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025106, "match_date": "2025-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.3418 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025080, "match_date": "2025-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.374 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025056, "match_date": "2025-08-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2134 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3182, "combined_rank_score": 1148.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2205.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0269, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Altay Bayındır", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Cresswell", "ranking": 3178 }, { "player_name": "Jaydee Canvot", "ranking": 3179 }, { "player_name": "Julio César Enciso", "ranking": 3180 }, { "player_name": "Franco Mastantuono", "ranking": 3181 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Bragança", "ranking": 3183 }, { "player_name": "Hákon Arnar Haraldsson", "ranking": 3184 }, { "player_name": "Brajan Gruda", "ranking": 3185 }, { "player_name": "Guillaume Restes", "ranking": 3186 }, { "player_name": "Johan Mojica", "ranking": 3187 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.485343983285876, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.11297018105844892, "market_value_adjustment": 0.994, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (6 historical appearances) to 4.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7117, "goals_prevented": 0.0269, "rating": 7.0269, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.9934, "accurate_pass": 16.4452, "total_long_balls": 16.378, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9555, "touches": 36.0455, "clearances": 1.3766, "ball_recovery": 5.9072, "high_claims": 1.0, "punches": 0.2047, "aerial_won": 0.1257, "sweeper_actions": 0.7191, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7191, "saves_inside_box": 2.1066, "possession_lost": 11.7807, "duels_won": 0.7181, "duels_lost": 0.174, "total_contest": 0.174, "won_contest": 0.174, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4184, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1461 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:04:16.386956+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2025-09-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-20", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-14", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-30", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-24", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-17", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 4.9555, "save_contribution": 2.1592, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8585, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 12.1461, "passValueNormalized": 0.0913, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 13.6955 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.711749792098999, "model_output": 2.7117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2283 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0293, "total": 2.7118, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080809 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.005595 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.005112 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.004923 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.004639 } ], "others_margin": -0.010784 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.026862088590860367, "model_output": 0.0269, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0365, "total": 0.0269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.017985 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.012328 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.012236 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.011857 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": -0.011519 } ], "others_margin": 0.036559 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.026858329772949, "model_output": 7.0269, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0303, "total": 7.0269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027696 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023477 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.02216 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.019682 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013709 } ], "others_margin": -0.030314 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6955, "goals_prevented": 0.0267, "rating": 7.0269, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.8254, "accurate_pass": 16.3465, "total_long_balls": 16.2797, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9258, "touches": 35.8292, "clearances": 1.3683, "ball_recovery": 5.8718, "high_claims": 0.994, "punches": 0.2035, "aerial_won": 0.1249, "sweeper_actions": 0.7148, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7148, "saves_inside_box": 2.094, "possession_lost": 11.71, "duels_won": 0.7138, "duels_lost": 0.173, "total_contest": 0.173, "won_contest": 0.173, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4159, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0732 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4242, "goals_prevented": 0.0042, "rating": 7.0269, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 4.3792, "accurate_pass": 2.5726, "total_long_balls": 2.5621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7752, "touches": 5.6388, "clearances": 0.2153, "ball_recovery": 0.9241, "high_claims": 0.1564, "punches": 0.032, "aerial_won": 0.0197, "sweeper_actions": 0.1125, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1125, "saves_inside_box": 0.3296, "possession_lost": 1.8429, "duels_won": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 0.0272, "total_contest": 0.0272, "won_contest": 0.0272, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1425, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.49, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1574, "appearance_probability": 0.113 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4242, "goals_prevented": 0.0042, "rating": 7.0269, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 4.3792, "accurate_pass": 2.5726, "total_long_balls": 2.5621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7752, "touches": 5.6388, "clearances": 0.2153, "ball_recovery": 0.9241, "high_claims": 0.1564, "punches": 0.032, "aerial_won": 0.0197, "sweeper_actions": 0.1125, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1125, "saves_inside_box": 0.3296, "possession_lost": 1.8429, "duels_won": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 0.0272, "total_contest": 0.0272, "won_contest": 0.0272, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1425, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4242, "goals_prevented": 0.0042, "rating": 7.0269, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 4.3792, "accurate_pass": 2.5726, "total_long_balls": 2.5621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7752, "touches": 5.6388, "clearances": 0.2153, "ball_recovery": 0.9241, "high_claims": 0.1564, "punches": 0.032, "aerial_won": 0.0197, "sweeper_actions": 0.1125, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1125, "saves_inside_box": 0.3296, "possession_lost": 1.8429, "duels_won": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 0.0272, "total_contest": 0.0272, "won_contest": 0.0272, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1425, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.113, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4242, "goals_prevented": 0.0042, "rating": 7.0269, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 4.3792, "accurate_pass": 2.5726, "total_long_balls": 2.5621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7752, "touches": 5.6388, "clearances": 0.2153, "ball_recovery": 0.9241, "high_claims": 0.1564, "punches": 0.032, "aerial_won": 0.0197, "sweeper_actions": 0.1125, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1125, "saves_inside_box": 0.3296, "possession_lost": 1.8429, "duels_won": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 0.0272, "total_contest": 0.0272, "won_contest": 0.0272, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0655, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1425, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3182, "fifa_rank": 2205.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1526627, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 184, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 10, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.0839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.327, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 80, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0109, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 61, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083248, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1127, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 68, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3352, "combined_rank_score": 1302.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 616.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7727, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 1988.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7657, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Javi Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yerry Mina", "ranking": 3347 }, { "player_name": "Ángel Correa", "ranking": 3348 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Hrošovský", "ranking": 3349 }, { "player_name": "Aníbal Moreno", "ranking": 3350 }, { "player_name": "Morato", "ranking": 3351 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kristian Thorstvedt", "ranking": 3353 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Santos", "ranking": 3354 }, { "player_name": "Soufiane Rahimi", "ranking": 3355 }, { "player_name": "Héctor Bellerín", "ranking": 3356 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Perri", "ranking": 3357 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.327, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0036, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 7.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (37 historical appearances) to 10.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.33); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 7.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2982, "tackles": 0.4985, "tackles_won": 0.3977, "clearances": 1.27, "aerial_won": 0.3143, "total_shots": 0.1499, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 24.81, "total_pass": 11.9827, "accurate_pass": 10.2886, "duels_won": 0.911, "total_long_balls": 1.5253, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5524, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9703, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3183, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8385, "possession_lost": 2.6115, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0999, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "total_contest": 0.2997, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6541, "challenges_lost": 0.2736, "fouls": 0.3526, "fouls_drawn": 0.4856, "blocks": 0.2047, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.6696, "total_progression": 1.7628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1499 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.2233, "aerialWon": 0.5288, "totalClearance_p90": 2.492, "totalTackle": 0.7985, "defensive_actions": 1.5766 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.29816991090774536, "model_output": 0.2982, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4815 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 0.2982, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.819306 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.035802 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.035767 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030997 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.024805 } ], "others_margin": -0.113608 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.49854782223701477, "model_output": 0.4985, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7312 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0621, "total": 0.4985, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.745447 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.049998 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.047411 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035225 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.031099 } ], "others_margin": -0.117262 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3977053463459015, "model_output": 0.3977, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4153 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0427 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 0.3977, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.665878 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.092943 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.05098 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.039681 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.036667 } ], "others_margin": -0.143514 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.2700304985046387, "model_output": 1.27, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.01 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.219 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0806 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0798 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0829 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 1.27, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.880802 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.167118 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.069276 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068611 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.06666 } ], "others_margin": -0.012391 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3142695128917694, "model_output": 0.3143, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8306 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1595 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0198 } ], "others": -0.0511, "total": 0.3143, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.923937 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.344881 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.075175 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069798 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.052894 } ], "others_margin": -0.150551 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14989574253559113, "model_output": 0.1499, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2166 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0564, "total": 0.1499, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.216623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.049402 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.019195 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013512 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.007859 } ], "others_margin": -0.056404 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.765689373016357, "model_output": 6.7657, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 6.7657, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.024108 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.023396 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022562 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016072 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013753 } ], "others_margin": -0.014127 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2992, "tackles": 0.5003, "tackles_won": 0.3991, "clearances": 1.2746, "aerial_won": 0.3154, "total_shots": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 24.81, "total_pass": 12.0258, "accurate_pass": 10.3256, "duels_won": 0.9143, "total_long_balls": 1.5308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5544, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.9027, "possession_lost": 2.6209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1039, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.3008, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6565, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.3539, "fouls_drawn": 0.4873, "blocks": 0.2054, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.672, "total_progression": 1.7691, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1504 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2995, "tackles": 0.5003, "tackles_won": 0.3952, "clearances": 1.2746, "aerial_won": 0.3154, "total_shots": 0.1498, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 24.81, "total_pass": 12.0258, "accurate_pass": 10.3256, "duels_won": 0.9143, "total_long_balls": 1.5308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5544, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.9027, "possession_lost": 2.6209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1039, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.3008, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6565, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.3506, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.2054, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "shots_on_target": 0.0014, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.672, "total_progression": 1.7691, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1504 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0134, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2757, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4873, "after": 0.4822 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.8 to 10.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1239, "tackles": 0.2069, "tackles_won": 0.1634, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1304, "total_shots": 0.0628, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 10.26, "total_pass": 4.9732, "accurate_pass": 4.2701, "duels_won": 0.3781, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2293, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4779, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7922, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.4035, "possession_lost": 1.0839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4565, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.1244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2715, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.145, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "blocks": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0006, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2779, "total_progression": 0.7316, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0622, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.327, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.26, "projection_minutes": 24.81, "minutes_scale": 0.4135, "appearance_probability": 0.327 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1239, "tackles": 0.2069, "tackles_won": 0.1634, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1304, "total_shots": 0.0628, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 10.26, "total_pass": 4.9732, "accurate_pass": 4.2701, "duels_won": 0.3781, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2293, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4779, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7922, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.4035, "possession_lost": 1.0839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4565, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.1244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2715, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.145, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "blocks": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0006, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2779, "total_progression": 0.7316, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0622, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.327, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1239, "tackles": 0.2069, "tackles_won": 0.1634, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1304, "total_shots": 0.0628, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 10.26, "total_pass": 4.9732, "accurate_pass": 4.2701, "duels_won": 0.3781, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2293, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4779, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7922, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.4035, "possession_lost": 1.0839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4565, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.1244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2715, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.145, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "blocks": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0006, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2779, "total_progression": 0.7316, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0622, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.327, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.327, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1239, "tackles": 0.2069, "tackles_won": 0.1634, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1304, "total_shots": 0.0628, "rating": 6.7657, "minutes": 10.26, "total_pass": 4.9732, "accurate_pass": 4.2701, "duels_won": 0.3781, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2293, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4779, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7922, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.4035, "possession_lost": 1.0839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4565, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.1244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2715, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.145, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "blocks": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0006, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2779, "total_progression": 0.7316, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0622, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.327, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3352, "fifa_rank": 1988.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Abdoulaye Faye": { "player_id": 1529051, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 191, "market_value": 4200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4920, "combined_rank_score": 3016.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 996.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5036.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.754, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdoulaye Faye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Peter Vindahl", "ranking": 4915 }, { "player_name": "Igoh Ogbu", "ranking": 4916 }, { "player_name": "Jakub Markovič", "ranking": 4917 }, { "player_name": "Matěj Ryneš", "ranking": 4918 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Vydra", "ranking": 4919 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pedrinho", "ranking": 4921 }, { "player_name": "Dmytro Riznyk", "ranking": 4922 }, { "player_name": "Gilberto Mora", "ranking": 4923 }, { "player_name": "Armando González", "ranking": 4924 }, { "player_name": "Joaquim", "ranking": 4925 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.317, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.317, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.631139321914329, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.218, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9868, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4151, "tackles": 0.6971, "tackles_won": 0.4288, "clearances": 1.3818, "aerial_won": 0.6426, "total_shots": 0.135, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 33.0, "accurate_pass": 32.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 1.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0, "possession_lost": 1.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0, "total_progression": 1.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.135 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 6.0, "aerialWon": 0.0, "totalClearance_p90": 12.0, "totalTackle": 1.0, "defensive_actions": 2.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4150530993938446, "model_output": 0.4151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4928 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0314, "total": 0.4151, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.849675 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.054097 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.046403 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.03069 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.028631 } ], "others_margin": 0.078954 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.697130560874939, "model_output": 0.6971, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7977 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.6971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.851548 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.079489 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.045699 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033392 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.031933 } ], "others_margin": -0.030133 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.42875435948371887, "model_output": 0.4288, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.482 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.0752, "total": 0.4288, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.830778 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.081089 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.04606 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045555 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.040427 } ], "others_margin": 0.192489 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3818200826644897, "model_output": 1.3818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2749 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3538 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.2212 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1349 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0684 } ], "others": 0.0249, "total": 1.3818, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.086799 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.266636 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.158214 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09941 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.049153 } ], "others_margin": 0.018166 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6426026821136475, "model_output": 0.6426, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8345 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1253 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0476 } ], "others": 0.0786, "total": 0.6426, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.931174 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.262576 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.119478 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09315 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.088206 } ], "others_margin": 0.130552 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.13502274453639984, "model_output": 0.135, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1955 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0608 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0373, "total": 0.135, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.195508 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.060809 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020786 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.014656 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010395 } ], "others_margin": -0.037324 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754028797149658, "model_output": 6.754, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0314, "total": 6.754, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025561 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020894 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020252 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.012984 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.011321 } ], "others_margin": -0.03129 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9868, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4096, "tackles": 0.6879, "tackles_won": 0.4231, "clearances": 1.3636, "aerial_won": 0.6341, "total_shots": 0.1332, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9868, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8944, "total_progression": 1.5448, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1332 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4200000, "quality_factor": 0.4523, "boost_factor": 0.9868, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0180)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4094, "tackles": 0.6879, "tackles_won": 0.4155, "clearances": 1.3636, "aerial_won": 0.6341, "total_shots": 0.1308, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9762, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8944, "total_progression": 1.5448, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1332 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.018, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9868, "after": 0.9762 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4231, "after": 0.4155 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.31, "tackles": 0.5209, "tackles_won": 0.3147, "clearances": 1.0326, "aerial_won": 0.4802, "total_shots": 0.1009, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.63, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7573, "appearance_probability": 0.218 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.31, "tackles": 0.5209, "tackles_won": 0.3147, "clearances": 1.0326, "aerial_won": 0.4802, "total_shots": 0.1009, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.31, "tackles": 0.5209, "tackles_won": 0.3147, "clearances": 1.0326, "aerial_won": 0.4802, "total_shots": 0.1009, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.218, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.31, "tackles": 0.5209, "tackles_won": 0.3147, "clearances": 1.0326, "aerial_won": 0.4802, "total_shots": 0.1009, "rating": 6.754, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1009, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4920, "fifa_rank": 5036.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Fer López": { "player_id": 1526628, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 186, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4877, "expected_assists": 0.2606, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 14 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0466, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2211, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1851, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083248, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.251, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083123, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2941, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081817, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1759, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2046, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3941, "combined_rank_score": 1921.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 563.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8118, "sofascore_appearances": 17.0, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7464, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fer López", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giovanni Reyna", "ranking": 3936 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Fagioli", "ranking": 3937 }, { "player_name": "Portu", "ranking": 3938 }, { "player_name": "Saúl Coco", "ranking": 3939 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Rowe", "ranking": 3940 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andy Diouf", "ranking": 3942 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Vazquez", "ranking": 3943 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Cambiaghi", "ranking": 3944 }, { "player_name": "Joan Jordán", "ranking": 3945 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Atta", "ranking": 3946 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.638908710234563, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5290413050106619, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0049, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (26 historical appearances) to 22.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6684, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0737, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "goals": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.054, "shots_on_target": 0.1408, "total_shots": 0.4745, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.1668, "accurate_pass": 7.7987, "duels_won": 1.107, "total_long_balls": 1.2229, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9495, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8492, "crosses_total": 0.1518, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.0819, "possession_lost": 3.7484, "dispossessed": 0.4848, "duels_lost": 1.5531, "aerial_won": 0.0578, "aerial_lost": 0.278, "interceptions": 0.2638, "tackles_won": 0.1531, "tackles": 0.2833, "clearances": 0.1302, "total_contest": 0.6674, "won_contest": 0.5, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.6496, "fouls_drawn": 0.266, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1411, "ball_carries": 4.5327, "total_progression": 28.8218, "progressive_carries": 0.5573, "shots_off_target": 0.3337 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1522, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1294, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.11, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0935, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0795, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.8666, "creative_index": 0.464, "expectedGoals": 0.1369, "expectedAssists": 0.1101, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3675 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6684153079986572, "model_output": 0.6684, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3462 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0533, "total": 0.6684, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.490508 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.09711 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.032263 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.026807 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.025929 } ], "others_margin": 0.083268 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05965816602110863, "model_output": 0.0597, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0032 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0034, "total": 0.0597, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.521724 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.060742 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.050843 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.049747 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.042079 } ], "others_margin": 0.056285 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07373261451721191, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.230562 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.104173 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103847 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.088482 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.076766 } ], "others_margin": 0.105096 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0473075695335865, "model_output": 0.0473, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0084, "total": 0.0473, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.566231 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.218872 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07955 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.053311 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.045353 } ], "others_margin": -0.164184 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05401263013482094, "model_output": 0.054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.054, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.421055 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.159192 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146077 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058669 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04946 } ], "others_margin": -0.077523 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14078646898269653, "model_output": 0.1408, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1649 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 0.1408, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.705717 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.156633 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082688 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.044355 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039429 } ], "others_margin": -0.123266 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4744437038898468, "model_output": 0.4744, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.406 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0252 } ], "others": -0.0721, "total": 0.4744, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.405967 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.039905 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030772 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.026899 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.025218 } ], "others_margin": -0.07214 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.746386528015137, "model_output": 6.7464, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0982 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0677 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0094, "total": 6.7464, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098233 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.067692 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026953 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020859 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018913 } ], "others_margin": -0.009406 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6717, "expected_assists": 0.06, "assists": 0.0741, "assist_rate": 0.0741, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0543, "goal_rate": 0.0543, "shots_on_target": 0.1415, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 4.5549, "total_progression": 28.963, "progressive_carries": 0.56, "shots_off_target": 0.3353 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.64, "projection_minutes": 22.96, "minutes_scale": 0.986, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0468, "after": 0.0277 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0592, "after": 0.0351 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3941, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "scorer_weight": 0.0296, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0324, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "provider_weight": 0.0396, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0656, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Miguel Román": { "player_id": 1398526, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "assist_rate": 0.1065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 8.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0686, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3443, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083607, "match_date": "2026-03-06", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081797, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083577, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0922, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3643, "combined_rank_score": 1606.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 2921.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9811, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Román", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nélson Semedo", "ranking": 3638 }, { "player_name": "Jan Kuchta", "ranking": 3639 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Mora", "ranking": 3640 }, { "player_name": "Milan van Ewijk", "ranking": 3641 }, { "player_name": "William Gomes", "ranking": 3642 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "João Moutinho", "ranking": 3644 }, { "player_name": "Tom Cairney", "ranking": 3645 }, { "player_name": "Mads Hermansen", "ranking": 3646 }, { "player_name": "Pepê", "ranking": 3647 }, { "player_name": "Finn Azaz", "ranking": 3648 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.785, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.785, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.414, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0033, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.2857142857142857, "prior_reliability": 0.2333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (26 historical appearances) to 34.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.41); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 45.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.588, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "assists": 0.0708, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0434, "shots_on_target": 0.1472, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 22.45, "total_pass": 20.3211, "accurate_pass": 17.7316, "duels_won": 1.6967, "total_long_balls": 1.8322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9272, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1778, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5844, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1472, "crosses_total": 0.7225, "crosses_accurate": 0.4817, "touches": 24.477, "possession_lost": 3.5085, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.522, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1479, "interceptions": 0.1257, "tackles_won": 0.4783, "tackles": 1.041, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4455, "won_contest": 0.2408, "challenges_lost": 0.7628, "fouls": 0.4066, "fouls_drawn": 0.4148, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2696, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0696, "ball_carries": 10.7619, "total_progression": 48.6502, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.277 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1522, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1294, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.11, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0935, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0795, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-06", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9468, "creative_index": 0.4269, "expectedGoals": 0.0277, "expectedAssists": 0.0932, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1558 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5879523158073425, "model_output": 0.588, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3897 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": 0.0557, "total": 0.588, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.573454 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.055494 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.045798 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.033933 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.0318 } ], "others_margin": 0.099496 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05936014652252197, "model_output": 0.0594, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0594, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517997 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.088868 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.054253 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.040191 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034429 } ], "others_margin": -0.066275 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07078178972005844, "model_output": 0.0708, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.0708, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.292448 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.084156 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.056626 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056355 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.05165 } ], "others_margin": 0.05059 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.02831444889307022, "model_output": 0.0283, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0016 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0011 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.001 } ], "others": -0.0068, "total": 0.0283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.526238 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.361977 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.041423 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.029963 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028096 } ], "others_margin": -0.215361 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04341447353363037, "model_output": 0.0434, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 0.0434, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.47161 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.155966 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.111546 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.083129 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.044083 } ], "others_margin": -0.033849 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14716002345085144, "model_output": 0.1472, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1484 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 0.1472, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.60798 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.11416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045892 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044547 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.043034 } ], "others_margin": -0.116786 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.42413318157196045, "model_output": 0.4241, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4163 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": -0.1527, "total": 0.4241, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.416347 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.030174 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.027839 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.022574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022568 } ], "others_margin": -0.152713 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.981054306030273, "model_output": 6.9811, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1337 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.096 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.9811, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.133711 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.096027 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088373 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016213 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014466 } ], "others_margin": -0.015114 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5899, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "assists": 0.071, "assist_rate": 0.071, "expected_goals": 0.0284, "goals": 0.0436, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.4256, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 22.45, "total_pass": 20.3882, "accurate_pass": 17.7901, "duels_won": 1.7023, "total_long_balls": 1.8382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9303, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1873, "crosses_total": 0.7249, "crosses_accurate": 0.4833, "touches": 24.5578, "possession_lost": 3.5201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.527, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1261, "tackles_won": 0.4799, "tackles": 1.0444, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.447, "won_contest": 0.2416, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.4079, "fouls_drawn": 0.4162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2705, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0698, "ball_carries": 10.7974, "total_progression": 48.8107, "progressive_carries": 0.3315, "shots_off_target": 0.2779 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0033, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0245)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5899, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "assists": 0.071, "assist_rate": 0.071, "expected_goals": 0.0284, "goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.144, "total_shots": 0.4152, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 22.45, "total_pass": 20.3882, "accurate_pass": 17.7901, "duels_won": 1.7023, "total_long_balls": 1.8382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9303, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1873, "crosses_total": 0.7298, "crosses_accurate": 0.4833, "touches": 24.5578, "possession_lost": 3.5201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.527, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1248, "tackles_won": 0.4682, "tackles": 1.0444, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.447, "won_contest": 0.2416, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.4014, "fouls_drawn": 0.4112, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2705, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0698, "ball_carries": 10.7974, "total_progression": 48.8107, "progressive_carries": 0.3315, "shots_off_target": 0.2779 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0245, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2494, "prior_reliability": 0.2333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4799, "after": 0.4682 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4256, "after": 0.4152 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4079, "after": 0.4014 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4162, "after": 0.4112 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.4 to 34.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8848, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "assists": 0.1065, "assist_rate": 0.1065, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "shots_on_target": 0.216, "total_shots": 0.6329, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 34.88, "total_pass": 30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, "fouls_drawn": 0.6168, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4058, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16.1961, "total_progression": 73.216, "progressive_carries": 0.4973, "shots_off_target": 0.4168, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.88, "projection_minutes": 22.45, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.414 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8848, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "assists": 0.1065, "assist_rate": 0.1065, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "shots_on_target": 0.216, "total_shots": 0.6329, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 34.88, "total_pass": 30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, "fouls_drawn": 0.6168, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4058, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16.1961, "total_progression": 73.216, "progressive_carries": 0.4973, "shots_off_target": 0.4168, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8848, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "assist_rate": 0.1065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.216, "total_shots": 0.6329, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 34.88, "total_pass": 30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, "fouls_drawn": 0.6168, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4058, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16.1961, "total_progression": 73.216, "progressive_carries": 0.4973, "shots_off_target": 0.4168, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.414, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8848, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "assist_rate": 0.1065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.216, "total_shots": 0.6329, "rating": 6.9811, "minutes": 34.88, "total_pass": 30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, "fouls_drawn": 0.6168, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4058, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16.1961, "total_progression": 73.216, "progressive_carries": 0.4973, "shots_off_target": 0.4168, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3643, "fifa_rank": 2921.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Williot Swedberg": { "player_id": 1126779, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.6896, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1208, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421058, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3919, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.691, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1037, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3324, "combined_rank_score": 1279.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1981.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6576, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Williot Swedberg", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 }, { "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking": 3320 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Leandro Cabrera", "ranking": 3325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Zendejas", "ranking": 3326 }, { "player_name": "Sacha Boey", "ranking": 3327 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Cuypers", "ranking": 3328 }, { "player_name": "Carl Rushworth", "ranking": 3329 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.445, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0041, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (36 historical appearances) to 30.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.45); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 34.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0607, "goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0688, "shots_on_target": 0.2402, "total_shots": 0.5717, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3729, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 26.33, "total_pass": 7.9361, "accurate_pass": 6.2686, "duels_won": 1.9214, "total_long_balls": 0.1211, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9371, "crosses_total": 0.2865, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 12.8546, "possession_lost": 3.1826, "dispossessed": 0.3231, "duels_lost": 2.1538, "aerial_lost": 0.3403, "total_contest": 0.521, "won_contest": 0.1458, "ball_recovery": 0.478, "challenges_lost": 0.3084, "fouls": 0.8068, "fouls_drawn": 0.7956, "assists": 0.1777, "assist_rate": 0.1777, "interceptions": 0.082, "tackles_won": 0.3066, "tackles": 0.7641, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0137, "big_chances_created": 0.2809, "big_chances_missed": 0.1789, "xgot": 0.1042, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5222, "total_progression": 22.1995, "progressive_carries": 1.0248, "shots_off_target": 0.3315 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 7.5235, "expectedGoals": 0.1268, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.6671, "accuratePass": 7.8073, "totalShots": 0.5821 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06065500155091286, "model_output": 0.0607, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0934 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0144, "total": 0.0607, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.640032 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.165735 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.067549 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057345 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.034774 } ], "others_margin": -0.215202 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06875729560852051, "model_output": 0.0688, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0913 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 0.0688, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.595873 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.173793 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.097165 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.070333 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.040754 } ], "others_margin": -0.106465 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.24020111560821533, "model_output": 0.2402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2205 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.2402, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.527735 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090214 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.079926 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039943 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.037351 } ], "others_margin": -0.03056 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5716854929924011, "model_output": 0.5717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4892 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1482 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.021 } ], "others": -0.0735, "total": 0.5717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.489208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.148203 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.044426 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025798 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.021021 } ], "others_margin": -0.073499 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0329437218606472, "model_output": 0.0329, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 0.0329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.332098 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.091759 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.078519 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.06245 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052575 } ], "others_margin": -0.174943 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37286126613616943, "model_output": 0.3729, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.233 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.3729, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.424642 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062493 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054832 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037378 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.03165 } ], "others_margin": 0.019908 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657567977905273, "model_output": 6.6576, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0365, "total": 6.6576, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055074 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010834 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009911 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.008202 } ], "others_margin": -0.036571 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goals": 0.069, "goal_rate": 0.069, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.5741, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.3744, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 26.33, "total_pass": 7.9686, "accurate_pass": 6.2943, "duels_won": 1.9293, "total_long_balls": 0.1216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9573, "crosses_total": 0.2877, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 12.9073, "possession_lost": 3.1956, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2.1626, "aerial_lost": 0.3417, "total_contest": 0.5231, "won_contest": 0.1464, "ball_recovery": 0.48, "challenges_lost": 0.3097, "fouls": 0.8101, "fouls_drawn": 0.7989, "assists": 0.1784, "assist_rate": 0.1784, "interceptions": 0.0823, "tackles_won": 0.3079, "tackles": 0.7672, "clearances": 0.045, "blocks": 0.0138, "big_chances_created": 0.2821, "big_chances_missed": 0.1796, "xgot": 0.1046, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5407, "total_progression": 22.2905, "progressive_carries": 1.029, "shots_off_target": 0.3329 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goals": 0.0681, "goal_rate": 0.0681, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.5715, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.3744, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 26.33, "total_pass": 7.9686, "accurate_pass": 6.2943, "duels_won": 1.9293, "total_long_balls": 0.1216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9573, "crosses_total": 0.2871, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 12.9073, "possession_lost": 3.1956, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2.1626, "aerial_lost": 0.3417, "total_contest": 0.5231, "won_contest": 0.1464, "ball_recovery": 0.48, "challenges_lost": 0.3097, "fouls": 0.8029, "fouls_drawn": 0.8058, "assists": 0.1761, "assist_rate": 0.1761, "interceptions": 0.0828, "tackles_won": 0.3071, "tackles": 0.7672, "clearances": 0.045, "blocks": 0.0138, "big_chances_created": 0.2821, "big_chances_missed": 0.1796, "xgot": 0.1046, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5407, "total_progression": 22.2905, "progressive_carries": 1.029, "shots_off_target": 0.3329 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0127, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2926, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8101, "after": 0.8029 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7989, "after": 0.8058 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.3 to 30.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goals": 0.0786, "goal_rate": 0.0786, "shots_on_target": 0.2785, "total_shots": 0.6629, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "key_pass": 0.4323, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 9.2004, "accurate_pass": 7.2673, "duels_won": 2.2275, "total_long_balls": 0.1404, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0907, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7236, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 14.9025, "possession_lost": 3.6896, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2.4969, "aerial_lost": 0.3417, "total_contest": 0.604, "won_contest": 0.169, "ball_recovery": 0.5542, "challenges_lost": 0.3097, "fouls": 0.927, "fouls_drawn": 0.9304, "assists": 0.2033, "assist_rate": 0.2033, "interceptions": 0.0956, "tackles_won": 0.3546, "tackles": 0.8858, "clearances": 0.052, "blocks": 0.0159, "big_chances_created": 0.3257, "big_chances_missed": 0.2074, "xgot": 0.1208, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2426, "total_progression": 25.7361, "progressive_carries": 1.1881, "shots_off_target": 0.3844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 30.4, "projection_minutes": 26.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1546, "appearance_probability": 0.445 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goals": 0.0786, "goal_rate": 0.0786, "shots_on_target": 0.2785, "total_shots": 0.6629, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "key_pass": 0.4323, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 9.2004, "accurate_pass": 7.2673, "duels_won": 2.2275, "total_long_balls": 0.1404, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0907, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7236, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 14.9025, "possession_lost": 3.6896, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2.4969, "aerial_lost": 0.3417, "total_contest": 0.604, "won_contest": 0.169, "ball_recovery": 0.5542, "challenges_lost": 0.3097, "fouls": 0.927, "fouls_drawn": 0.9304, "assists": 0.2033, "assist_rate": 0.2033, "interceptions": 0.0956, "tackles_won": 0.3546, "tackles": 0.8858, "clearances": 0.052, "blocks": 0.0159, "big_chances_created": 0.3257, "big_chances_missed": 0.2074, "xgot": 0.1208, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2426, "total_progression": 25.7361, "progressive_carries": 1.1881, "shots_off_target": 0.3844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2785, "total_shots": 0.6629, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "key_pass": 0.4323, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 9.2004, "accurate_pass": 7.2673, "duels_won": 2.2275, "total_long_balls": 0.1404, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0907, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7236, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 14.9025, "possession_lost": 3.6896, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2.4969, "aerial_lost": 0.3417, "total_contest": 0.604, "won_contest": 0.169, "ball_recovery": 0.5542, "challenges_lost": 0.3097, "fouls": 0.927, "fouls_drawn": 0.9304, "assist_rate": 0.2033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0956, "tackles_won": 0.3546, "tackles": 0.8858, "clearances": 0.052, "blocks": 0.0159, "big_chances_created": 0.3257, "big_chances_missed": 0.2074, "xgot": 0.1208, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2426, "total_progression": 25.7361, "progressive_carries": 1.1881, "shots_off_target": 0.3844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.445, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2785, "total_shots": 0.6629, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "key_pass": 0.4323, "rating": 6.6576, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 9.2004, "accurate_pass": 7.2673, "duels_won": 2.2275, "total_long_balls": 0.1404, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0907, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7236, "crosses_total": 0.3315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 14.9025, "possession_lost": 3.6896, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2.4969, "aerial_lost": 0.3417, "total_contest": 0.604, "won_contest": 0.169, "ball_recovery": 0.5542, "challenges_lost": 0.3097, "fouls": 0.927, "fouls_drawn": 0.9304, "assist_rate": 0.2033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0956, "tackles_won": 0.3546, "tackles": 0.8858, "clearances": 0.052, "blocks": 0.0159, "big_chances_created": 0.3257, "big_chances_missed": 0.2074, "xgot": 0.1208, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2426, "total_progression": 25.7361, "progressive_carries": 1.1881, "shots_off_target": 0.3844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3324, "fifa_rank": 1981.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "player_id": 1173575, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 184, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2722, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081817, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083607, "match_date": "2026-03-06", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081797, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4507, "combined_rank_score": 2528.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6375, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jones El-Abdellaoui", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Cabral", "ranking": 4502 }, { "player_name": "Iván Colman", "ranking": 4503 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Montoro", "ranking": 4504 }, { "player_name": "Cryzan", "ranking": 4505 }, { "player_name": "Valentino Lazaro", "ranking": 4506 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Đuričić", "ranking": 4508 }, { "player_name": "Michał Skóraś", "ranking": 4509 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ramos Mingo", "ranking": 4510 }, { "player_name": "Thelo Aasgaard", "ranking": 4511 }, { "player_name": "Richie Laryea", "ranking": 4512 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.532, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9999, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 26.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (25 historical appearances) to 25.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 26.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0688, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "total_shots": 0.5416, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "key_pass": 0.2971, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2805, "accurate_pass": 3.2748, "duels_won": 0.803, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4628, "crosses_total": 1.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5117, "possession_lost": 3.9781, "dispossessed": 0.6982, "duels_lost": 1.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5418, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1912, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9497, "total_progression": 26.6232, "progressive_carries": 1.214, "shots_off_target": 0.2867 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-06", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.6671, "expectedGoals": 0.0714, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.7162, "accuratePass": 7.4152, "totalShots": 0.7591 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0641179010272026, "model_output": 0.0641, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0917 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.170909 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.103773 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.043982 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039221 } ], "others_margin": -0.222016 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06882832944393158, "model_output": 0.0688, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0961 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0688, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.63944 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.155225 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072558 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.067239 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03356 } ], "others_margin": -0.115327 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2548868656158447, "model_output": 0.2549, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 0.2549, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093782 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.078056 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.058315 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.045602 } ], "others_margin": 0.028605 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5415381789207458, "model_output": 0.5415, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5374 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1378 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0306 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 0.5415, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.537367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137811 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.040877 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.036253 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.030613 } ], "others_margin": -0.049381 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.020519889891147614, "model_output": 0.0205, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0205, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.397015 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.117827 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.112089 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.107767 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.093268 } ], "others_margin": -0.312884 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2970902919769287, "model_output": 0.2971, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2666 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.2971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504087 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063879 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040695 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.039147 } ], "others_margin": -0.095294 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637508392333984, "model_output": 6.6375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 6.6375, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057966 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024778 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014567 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013067 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011086 } ], "others_margin": -0.034163 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0688, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "total_shots": 0.5416, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "key_pass": 0.2971, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.2867 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2548, "total_shots": 0.5413, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "key_pass": 0.2971, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.2867 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0757, "goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0757, "goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0757, "after": 0.0451 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0242, "after": 0.0144 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "scorer_weight": 0.0469, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0513, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0115, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0191, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "player_id": 1173575, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 184, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2722, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081817, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083607, "match_date": "2026-03-06", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081797, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4507, "combined_rank_score": 2528.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6375, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jones El-Abdellaoui", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Cabral", "ranking": 4502 }, { "player_name": "Iván Colman", "ranking": 4503 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Montoro", "ranking": 4504 }, { "player_name": "Cryzan", "ranking": 4505 }, { "player_name": "Valentino Lazaro", "ranking": 4506 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Đuričić", "ranking": 4508 }, { "player_name": "Michał Skóraś", "ranking": 4509 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ramos Mingo", "ranking": 4510 }, { "player_name": "Thelo Aasgaard", "ranking": 4511 }, { "player_name": "Richie Laryea", "ranking": 4512 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.532, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9999, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 26.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (25 historical appearances) to 25.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 26.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0688, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "total_shots": 0.5416, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "key_pass": 0.2971, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2805, "accurate_pass": 3.2748, "duels_won": 0.803, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4628, "crosses_total": 1.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5117, "possession_lost": 3.9781, "dispossessed": 0.6982, "duels_lost": 1.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5418, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1912, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9497, "total_progression": 26.6232, "progressive_carries": 1.214, "shots_off_target": 0.2867 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-06", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.6671, "expectedGoals": 0.0714, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.7162, "accuratePass": 7.4152, "totalShots": 0.7591 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0641179010272026, "model_output": 0.0641, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0917 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.170909 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.103773 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.043982 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039221 } ], "others_margin": -0.222016 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06882832944393158, "model_output": 0.0688, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0961 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0688, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.63944 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.155225 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072558 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.067239 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03356 } ], "others_margin": -0.115327 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2548868656158447, "model_output": 0.2549, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 0.2549, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093782 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.078056 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.058315 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.045602 } ], "others_margin": 0.028605 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5415381789207458, "model_output": 0.5415, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5374 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1378 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0306 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 0.5415, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.537367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137811 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.040877 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.036253 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.030613 } ], "others_margin": -0.049381 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.020519889891147614, "model_output": 0.0205, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0205, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.397015 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.117827 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.112089 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.107767 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.093268 } ], "others_margin": -0.312884 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2970902919769287, "model_output": 0.2971, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2666 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.2971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504087 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063879 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040695 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.039147 } ], "others_margin": -0.095294 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637508392333984, "model_output": 6.6375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 6.6375, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057966 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024778 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014567 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013067 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011086 } ], "others_margin": -0.034163 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0688, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "total_shots": 0.5416, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "key_pass": 0.2971, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.2867 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2548, "total_shots": 0.5413, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "key_pass": 0.2971, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.2867 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0757, "goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0757, "goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0757, "after": 0.0451 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0242, "after": 0.0144 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "scorer_weight": 0.0469, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0513, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.301, "total_shots": 0.6397, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.351, "rating": 6.6375, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3387, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "finishing_factor": 1.0398, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0115, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0191, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Fer López": { "player_id": 1526628, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 186, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4877, "expected_assists": 0.2606, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 14 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0466, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2211, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1851, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083248, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.251, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083123, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2941, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081817, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1759, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2046, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3941, "combined_rank_score": 1921.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 563.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8118, "sofascore_appearances": 17.0, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7464, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fer López", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giovanni Reyna", "ranking": 3936 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Fagioli", "ranking": 3937 }, { "player_name": "Portu", "ranking": 3938 }, { "player_name": "Saúl Coco", "ranking": 3939 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Rowe", "ranking": 3940 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andy Diouf", "ranking": 3942 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Vazquez", "ranking": 3943 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Cambiaghi", "ranking": 3944 }, { "player_name": "Joan Jordán", "ranking": 3945 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Atta", "ranking": 3946 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.638908710234563, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5290413050106619, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0049, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (26 historical appearances) to 22.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6684, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0737, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "goals": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.054, "shots_on_target": 0.1408, "total_shots": 0.4745, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.1668, "accurate_pass": 7.7987, "duels_won": 1.107, "total_long_balls": 1.2229, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9495, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8492, "crosses_total": 0.1518, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.0819, "possession_lost": 3.7484, "dispossessed": 0.4848, "duels_lost": 1.5531, "aerial_won": 0.0578, "aerial_lost": 0.278, "interceptions": 0.2638, "tackles_won": 0.1531, "tackles": 0.2833, "clearances": 0.1302, "total_contest": 0.6674, "won_contest": 0.5, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.6496, "fouls_drawn": 0.266, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1411, "ball_carries": 4.5327, "total_progression": 28.8218, "progressive_carries": 0.5573, "shots_off_target": 0.3337 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1522, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1294, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.11, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0935, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0795, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.8666, "creative_index": 0.464, "expectedGoals": 0.1369, "expectedAssists": 0.1101, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3675 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6684153079986572, "model_output": 0.6684, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3462 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0533, "total": 0.6684, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.490508 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.09711 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.032263 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.026807 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.025929 } ], "others_margin": 0.083268 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05965816602110863, "model_output": 0.0597, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0032 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0034, "total": 0.0597, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.521724 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.060742 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.050843 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.049747 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.042079 } ], "others_margin": 0.056285 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07373261451721191, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.230562 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.104173 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103847 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.088482 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.076766 } ], "others_margin": 0.105096 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0473075695335865, "model_output": 0.0473, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0084, "total": 0.0473, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.566231 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.218872 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07955 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.053311 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.045353 } ], "others_margin": -0.164184 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05401263013482094, "model_output": 0.054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.054, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.421055 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.159192 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146077 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058669 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04946 } ], "others_margin": -0.077523 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14078646898269653, "model_output": 0.1408, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1649 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 0.1408, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.705717 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.156633 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082688 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.044355 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039429 } ], "others_margin": -0.123266 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4744437038898468, "model_output": 0.4744, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.406 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0252 } ], "others": -0.0721, "total": 0.4744, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.405967 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.039905 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030772 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.026899 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.025218 } ], "others_margin": -0.07214 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.746386528015137, "model_output": 6.7464, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0982 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0677 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0094, "total": 6.7464, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098233 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.067692 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026953 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020859 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018913 } ], "others_margin": -0.009406 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6717, "expected_assists": 0.06, "assists": 0.0741, "assist_rate": 0.0741, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0543, "goal_rate": 0.0543, "shots_on_target": 0.1415, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 4.5549, "total_progression": 28.963, "progressive_carries": 0.56, "shots_off_target": 0.3353 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.64, "projection_minutes": 22.96, "minutes_scale": 0.986, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 0.7665, xG scale 1.1206, xA scale 1.1206, team xA 0.64 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.859, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7665, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5741, "team_expected_assists": 0.6433, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7489, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1206, "xa_scale": 1.1206, "opponent_lambda": 0.849, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0468, "after": 0.0277 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0592, "after": 0.0351 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3941, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "scorer_weight": 0.0296, "squad_weight_total": 0.9142, "weight_share": 0.0324, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6623, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1395, "total_shots": 0.4701, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.3306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.027, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.034, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "provider_weight": 0.0396, "squad_weight_total": 0.6035, "weight_share": 0.0656, "creation_factor": 1.1273, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.86, "expected_assists": 0.64, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 436, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } }, "Alavés": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Ville Koski": { "player_id": 999178, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 185, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587, "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0889, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "finishing_factor": 1.1851, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1336, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7752, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 12, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "expected_assists": 0.2091, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6009, "combined_rank_score": 4273.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 409.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 8138.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7045, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ville Koski", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carracedo", "ranking": 6004 }, { "player_name": "Andrés Fernández", "ranking": 6005 }, { "player_name": "Nick D'Agostino", "ranking": 6006 }, { "player_name": "Jesé", "ranking": 6007 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Jiménez", "ranking": 6008 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vallejo", "ranking": 6010 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Pittón", "ranking": 6011 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Córdoba", "ranking": 6012 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Alcaraz", "ranking": 6013 }, { "player_name": "Nolaskoain", "ranking": 6014 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.779, "history_matches": 13, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 13, "data_confidence": 0.779, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9957, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 259.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1933 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 13 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.19, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0463, "tackles": 1.2818, "tackles_won": 0.6456, "clearances": 6.2746, "aerial_won": 1.8676, "total_shots": 0.3889, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.4884, "accurate_pass": 25.453, "duels_won": 2.3666, "total_long_balls": 3.1928, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2987, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9549, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.295, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5334, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1579, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.559, "possession_lost": 4.7405, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0556, "aerial_lost": 1.7119, "total_contest": 0.0704, "won_contest": 0.0704, "ball_recovery": 1.4459, "challenges_lost": 0.1147, "fouls": 1.3437, "fouls_drawn": 0.1588, "blocks": 1.0604, "goals": 0.1659, "goal_rate": 0.1659, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1272, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1172, "ball_carries": 7.65, "total_progression": 28.3535, "progressive_carries": 0.0704, "key_pass": 0.0599, "shots_off_target": 0.0353 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1706, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.145, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1233, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1048, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0891, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0757, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0644, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0547, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0465, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0395, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 13.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.8939, "aerialWon": 1.1225, "totalClearance_p90": 11.22, "totalTackle": 0.785, "defensive_actions": 1.7162 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0463372468948364, "model_output": 1.0463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1094 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0319 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0248 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 1.0463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119602 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.04318 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.04051 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.030703 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.023992 } ], "others_margin": -0.001477 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2817976474761963, "model_output": 1.2818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1934 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.1212 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0922 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.074 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0538 } ], "others": -0.1463, "total": 1.2818, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130113 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.079555 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.061076 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.048706 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.036978 } ], "others_margin": -0.108074 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6456084251403809, "model_output": 0.6456, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1094 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0536 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0427 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0393 } ], "others": -0.1252, "total": 0.6456, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120483 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.061226 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.060965 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.05139 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.049713 } ], "others_margin": -0.177122 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.274606704711914, "model_output": 6.2746, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7982 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5715 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3826 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.409 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1783 } ], "others": 0.5023, "total": 6.2746, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.20907 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126693 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.07666 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.07592 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.031374 } ], "others_margin": 0.083438 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8675857782363892, "model_output": 1.8676, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1789 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.176 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1658 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1338 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1348 } ], "others": 0.0588, "total": 1.8676, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.139106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137047 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.113899 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.083313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077422 } ], "others_margin": 0.031939 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38889849185943604, "model_output": 0.3889, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.075 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.017, "total": 0.3889, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.074971 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048238 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.016254 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014574 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.01088 } ], "others_margin": -0.01716 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.704514026641846, "model_output": 6.7045, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 6.7045, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.04595 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015683 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.014773 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.0144 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013648 } ], "others_margin": -0.00528 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9957, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0418, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6428, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3872, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.3379, "fouls_drawn": 0.1581, "blocks": 1.0558, "goals": 0.1652, "goal_rate": 0.1652, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3521, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1167, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9957, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0349)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3737, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goals": 0.1594, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1167, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0349, "history_matches": 13, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9923, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3379, "after": 1.2912 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3872, "after": 0.3737 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3521, "after": 0.3398 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6428, "after": 0.6323 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1652, "after": 0.1594 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1581, "after": 0.1526 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3749, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goals": 0.1594, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1167, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3749, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goals": 0.1594, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1167, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587, "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3749, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1167, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587, "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3749, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587, "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1851, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1267, "after": 0.0931 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3749, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587, "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1851, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6009, "fifa_rank": 8138.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3749, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587, "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0889, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1851, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0889, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "scorer_weight": 0.1103, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.1209, "finishing_factor": 1.1851, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0413, "tackles": 1.2763, "tackles_won": 0.6323, "clearances": 6.2476, "aerial_won": 1.8596, "total_shots": 0.3749, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 29.3616, "accurate_pass": 25.3436, "duels_won": 2.3564, "total_long_balls": 3.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8691, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.376, "possession_lost": 4.7201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0425, "aerial_lost": 1.7045, "total_contest": 0.0701, "won_contest": 0.0701, "ball_recovery": 1.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.1142, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.1526, "blocks": 1.0558, "goal_rate": 0.1594, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 7.6171, "total_progression": 28.2316, "progressive_carries": 0.0701, "key_pass": 0.0596, "shots_off_target": 0.0351, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587, "opponent_faced": "Hugo Burcio", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0889, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "finishing_factor": 1.1851, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0128, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.024, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Jonny Otto": { "player_id": 235648, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 175, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0108, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0107, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0299, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "expected_assists": 0.086, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 64, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 275, "combined_rank_score": 212.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 225.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7547, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jonny Otto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Seong-min Hwang", "ranking": 270 }, { "player_name": "Anzur Ismoilov", "ranking": 271 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cruz Gonzalez", "ranking": 272 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Bidu", "ranking": 273 }, { "player_name": "Alibek Davronov", "ranking": 274 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mauricio Isla", "ranking": 276 }, { "player_name": "Park Byeong Gyu", "ranking": 277 }, { "player_name": "Svetoslav Vutsov", "ranking": 278 }, { "player_name": "Negueba", "ranking": 279 }, { "player_name": "Léo Ortiz", "ranking": 280 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0301, "tackles": 1.9491, "tackles_won": 1.2587, "clearances": 2.9629, "aerial_won": 0.9317, "total_shots": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.6472, "accurate_pass": 36.8171, "duels_won": 3.7009, "total_long_balls": 4.144, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3293, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3729, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0301, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2743, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.787, "crosses_total": 0.418, "crosses_accurate": 0.2281, "touches": 59.6591, "possession_lost": 8.7432, "dispossessed": 0.4125, "duels_lost": 3.0607, "aerial_lost": 0.7943, "total_contest": 0.8916, "won_contest": 0.463, "ball_recovery": 4.4148, "challenges_lost": 0.8667, "fouls": 0.5685, "fouls_drawn": 0.7204, "blocks": 0.7104, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "shots_on_target": 0.1407, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0226, "ball_carries": 16.5968, "total_progression": 78.5264, "progressive_carries": 1.251, "key_pass": 0.3088, "shots_off_target": 0.2811 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.8526, "aerialWon": 0.5617, "totalClearance_p90": 2.924, "totalTackle": 1.9558, "defensive_actions": 2.9443 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0300825834274292, "model_output": 1.0301, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1124 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": 0.019, "total": 1.0301, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122764 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.026088 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.015796 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.015273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01151 } ], "others_margin": 0.018561 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.949110746383667, "model_output": 1.9491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1964 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.084 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0757 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0732 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0626 } ], "others": 0.0657, "total": 1.9491, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132041 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.051565 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.044309 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.041055 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033823 } ], "others_margin": 0.034193 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2586722373962402, "model_output": 1.2587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1236 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0737 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.065 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0385 } ], "others": 0.059, "total": 1.2587, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13512 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.072711 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.060017 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.039274 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.032654 } ], "others_margin": 0.04791 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.962855577468872, "model_output": 2.9629, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4514 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3504 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2846 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.2089 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1141 } ], "others": -0.381, "total": 2.9629, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.094539 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.083958 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.0623 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.033564 } ], "others_margin": -0.120991 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9317499995231628, "model_output": 0.9317, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4053 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1348 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0849 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0437 } ], "others": -0.1267, "total": 0.9318, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.348481 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129902 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.084275 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080125 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040493 } ], "others_margin": -0.127604 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4218316674232483, "model_output": 0.4218, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0869 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0166, "total": 0.4218, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.086933 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055699 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.011882 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.00863 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008208 } ], "others_margin": -0.016479 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754696369171143, "model_output": 6.7547, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 6.7547, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010189 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.009015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008693 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.007864 } ], "others_margin": 0.001852 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0226, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0226, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0226, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805, "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0226, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805, "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0108, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805, "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0108, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805, "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 275, "fifa_rank": 225.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0108, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805, "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0107, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0107, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0086, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0278, "tackles": 1.9448, "tackles_won": 1.2559, "clearances": 2.9563, "aerial_won": 0.9297, "total_shots": 0.4209, "rating": 6.7547, "minutes": 87.61, "total_pass": 42.5534, "accurate_pass": 36.7361, "duels_won": 3.6928, "total_long_balls": 4.1349, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3242, "total_own_half_passes": 25.3171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.9794, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7567, "crosses_total": 0.4171, "crosses_accurate": 0.2276, "touches": 59.5278, "possession_lost": 8.724, "dispossessed": 0.4116, "duels_lost": 3.054, "aerial_lost": 0.7926, "total_contest": 0.8896, "won_contest": 0.462, "ball_recovery": 4.4051, "challenges_lost": 0.8648, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.7188, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0108, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 16.5603, "total_progression": 78.3536, "progressive_carries": 1.2482, "key_pass": 0.3081, "shots_off_target": 0.2805, "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs CB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0107, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0299, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0243, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0457, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "player_id": 896073, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 182, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2619, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0533, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3096, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0566, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2146, "combined_rank_score": 809.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 62.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1557.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7911, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kaito Taniguchi", "ranking": 2141 }, { "player_name": "Seok-jun Hong", "ranking": 2142 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking": 2143 }, { "player_name": "Lazar Samardžić", "ranking": 2144 }, { "player_name": "Giovanny Avalos", "ranking": 2145 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Breel Embolo", "ranking": 2147 }, { "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 2148 }, { "player_name": "Kim Geon-oh", "ranking": 2149 }, { "player_name": "Ben Chilwell", "ranking": 2150 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Duarte", "ranking": 2151 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.998, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.33, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1846, "tackles": 2.1843, "tackles_won": 1.3925, "clearances": 3.4253, "aerial_won": 0.9911, "total_shots": 0.6331, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 30.0263, "accurate_pass": 24.5104, "duels_won": 4.9508, "total_long_balls": 4.2043, "accurate_long_balls": 1.663, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2947, "crosses_total": 0.9594, "crosses_accurate": 0.1101, "touches": 50.857, "possession_lost": 9.7026, "dispossessed": 0.6705, "duels_lost": 4.123, "aerial_lost": 1.1096, "total_contest": 1.3261, "won_contest": 0.3689, "ball_recovery": 3.7487, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 0.785, "fouls_drawn": 1.3612, "blocks": 0.6233, "goals": 0.0799, "goal_rate": 0.0799, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "big_chances_created": 0.1105, "xgot": 0.0444, "ball_carries": 11.2807, "total_progression": 52.8121, "progressive_carries": 1.2155, "key_pass": 0.2586, "shots_off_target": 0.3848 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.686, "aerialWon": 0.8615, "totalClearance_p90": 4.0551, "totalTackle": 2.4868, "defensive_actions": 4.2482 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.184632420539856, "model_output": 1.1846, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1052 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0951 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.016 } ], "others": 0.059, "total": 1.1846, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115343 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.093924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.029953 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.014597 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014273 } ], "others_margin": 0.05115 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.1842875480651855, "model_output": 2.1843, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1973 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1136 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1115 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.1184 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.087 } ], "others": 0.165, "total": 2.1843, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132602 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.069038 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.06346 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.063211 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.044035 } ], "others_margin": 0.078558 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.3925178050994873, "model_output": 1.3925, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1336 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.096 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0852 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0467 } ], "others": 0.1126, "total": 1.3925, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.145271 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.092793 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.075658 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.053469 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.037177 } ], "others_margin": 0.084373 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.425288438796997, "model_output": 3.4253, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4494 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2799 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1222 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.1035 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.084 } ], "others": -0.427, "total": 3.4253, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123031 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.069611 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029798 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.025963 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.021574 } ], "others_margin": -0.11748 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9910972118377686, "model_output": 0.9911, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2788 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1451 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0519 } ], "others": -0.2076, "total": 0.9911, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.226165 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124077 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.052679 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.047054 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.042374 } ], "others_margin": -0.19024 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6330986618995667, "model_output": 0.6331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0056, "total": 0.6331, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.03093 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.02625 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017085 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.014519 } ], "others_margin": 0.005645 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.791120529174805, "model_output": 6.7911, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 6.7911, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017618 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.016874 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010797 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.009344 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007591 } ], "others_margin": -0.000341 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1823, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3897, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6318, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9575, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7834, "fouls_drawn": 1.3585, "blocks": 0.6221, "goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0797, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.2478, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0443, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goals": 0.0829, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0443, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9558, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6318, "after": 0.6403 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7834, "after": 0.7899 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1823, "after": 1.1877 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3585, "after": 1.3532 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goals": 0.0829, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0443, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goals": 0.0829, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0443, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0443, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0354, "after": 0.026 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2146, "fifa_rank": 1557.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "scorer_weight": 0.0325, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0356, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1877, "tackles": 2.1799, "tackles_won": 1.3882, "clearances": 3.4184, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 86.02, "total_pass": 29.9662, "accurate_pass": 24.4614, "duels_won": 4.9409, "total_long_balls": 4.1959, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6597, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.1852, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3586, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2761, "crosses_total": 0.9533, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 50.7553, "possession_lost": 9.6832, "dispossessed": 0.6692, "duels_lost": 4.1148, "aerial_lost": 1.1074, "total_contest": 1.3234, "won_contest": 0.3682, "ball_recovery": 3.7412, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 1.3532, "blocks": 0.6221, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.2487, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 11.2581, "total_progression": 52.7065, "progressive_carries": 1.2131, "key_pass": 0.2581, "shots_off_target": 0.384, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iago Aspas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0286, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0536, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Antonio Sivera": { "player_id": 369004, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 184, "market_value": 5600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 39, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8347, "shots_faced": 8.2, "expected_saves": 2.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.69, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.8983 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.9777 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1845 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1349 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1219 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.663 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0097 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0882 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.2241 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 194, "combined_rank_score": 156.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0451, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonio Sivera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Renzo Malanca", "ranking": 189 }, { "player_name": "Andy Robertson", "ranking": 190 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás de la Cruz", "ranking": 191 }, { "player_name": "Osmar Barba", "ranking": 192 }, { "player_name": "Yarden Shua", "ranking": 193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Igor Lichnovsky", "ranking": 195 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rojas", "ranking": 196 }, { "player_name": "Armandas Kučys", "ranking": 197 }, { "player_name": "Javier Hernández", "ranking": 198 }, { "player_name": "Daler Tukhsanov", "ranking": 199 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 46, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.999, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 46 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0289, "goals_prevented": -0.1558, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4952, "accurate_pass": 15.0976, "total_long_balls": 21.8897, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5875, "touches": 39.0773, "clearances": 1.6172, "ball_recovery": 9.8676, "high_claims": 1.3503, "punches": 1.046, "aerial_won": 0.4854, "sweeper_actions": 0.8214, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8214, "saves_inside_box": 1.7926, "possession_lost": 12.6573, "duels_won": 0.6041, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0068, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4797 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:04:16.386956+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0783, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 9.5875, "save_contribution": 3.3704, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8089, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 6.4797, "passValueNormalized": 0.1307, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 7.7403 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0288796424865723, "model_output": 3.0289, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0018, "total": 3.0289, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013632 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.012434 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.01146 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.010498 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008076 } ], "others_margin": 0.000595 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.15576116740703583, "model_output": -0.1558, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": -0.1558, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041448 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.02742 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.027329 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.019432 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.015404 } ], "others_margin": 0.003384 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.045129299163818, "model_output": 7.0451, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0221 } ], "others": 0.0481, "total": 7.0451, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.047013 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026325 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024401 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.023352 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02212 } ], "others_margin": 0.048113 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0259, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0068, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0127, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8347, "shots_faced": 7.9, "expected_saves": 1.93, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.8347 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8347, "shots_faced": 7.9, "expected_saves": 1.93, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8347, "shots_faced": 8.2, "expected_saves": 2.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.69, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 7.9, "after": 8.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 1.93, "after": 2.01 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.67, "after": 0.69 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8347, "shots_faced": 8.2, "expected_saves": 2.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.69, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 194, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8347, "shots_faced": 8.2, "expected_saves": 2.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.69, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 3.0298, "goals_prevented": -0.1556, "rating": 7.0451, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4677, "accurate_pass": 15.0825, "total_long_balls": 21.8678, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5779, "touches": 39.0382, "clearances": 1.6156, "ball_recovery": 9.8577, "high_claims": 1.3489, "punches": 1.045, "aerial_won": 0.4849, "sweeper_actions": 0.8206, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8206, "saves_inside_box": 1.7908, "possession_lost": 12.6446, "duels_won": 0.6035, "duels_lost": 0.0404, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4732, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8347, "shots_faced": 8.2, "expected_saves": 2.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.69, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Iago Aspas", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } } ] }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "player_id": 1116570, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 184, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.023, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0745, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4138, "combined_rank_score": 2135.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3449.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7169, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yunus Musah", "ranking": 4133 }, { "player_name": "Florent Muslija", "ranking": 4134 }, { "player_name": "Darnell Furlong", "ranking": 4135 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Noubi", "ranking": 4136 }, { "player_name": "Marcão", "ranking": 4137 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Cardoso", "ranking": 4141 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Sánchez", "ranking": 4142 }, { "player_name": "Christos Mouzakitis", "ranking": 4143 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.564, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.564, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9901, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 11.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 8.18, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.3021, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 4.2973, "aerial_won": 1.2018, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 35.1088, "accurate_pass": 27.0933, "duels_won": 3.0, "total_long_balls": 6.7259, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8338, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6803, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1769, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9164, "crosses_total": 0.5617, "crosses_accurate": 0.2808, "touches": 47.7852, "possession_lost": 9.966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0583, "aerial_lost": 0.6696, "total_contest": 0.3887, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0496, "challenges_lost": 0.6113, "fouls": 0.3887, "fouls_drawn": 0.6113, "blocks": 0.9504, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.242, "total_progression": 37.079, "progressive_carries": 0.2809, "key_pass": 0.2809, "shots_off_target": 0.3813 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.4489, "aerialWon": 0.7708, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9244, "totalTackle": 1.1925, "defensive_actions": 1.8569 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8357363939285278, "model_output": 0.8357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0158 } ], "others": 0.0037, "total": 0.8357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122313 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.065261 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.041647 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.030625 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.018817 } ], "others_margin": 0.004402 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3021236658096313, "model_output": 1.3021, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1781 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0568 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": -0.0979, "total": 1.3021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.036851 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.032045 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.022826 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.02263 } ], "others_margin": -0.072459 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8075147271156311, "model_output": 0.8075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1111 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0421, "total": 0.8075, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122302 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.04896 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.034957 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.025205 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.018485 } ], "others_margin": -0.050859 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.297308921813965, "model_output": 4.2973, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4496 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3625 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3509 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2108 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1222 } ], "others": -0.2098, "total": 4.2973, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089263 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.079423 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.046957 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.027479 } ], "others_margin": -0.047657 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2018249034881592, "model_output": 1.2018, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.305 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.148 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0984 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0816 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0538 } ], "others": -0.0891, "total": 1.2018, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.250273 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129322 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077544 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.063868 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042581 } ], "others_margin": -0.071599 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3813317120075226, "model_output": 0.3813, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1213 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0585, "total": 0.3813, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.121331 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049336 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.02328 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022475 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008498 } ], "others_margin": -0.058431 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7168869972229, "model_output": 6.7169, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 6.7169, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021802 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014628 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014494 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013803 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01181 } ], "others_margin": -0.020267 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9901, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8275, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7995, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3776, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5561, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.3849, "fouls_drawn": 0.6052, "blocks": 0.941, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9901, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9508, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.3849, "after": 0.4048 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3776, "after": 0.3937 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4138, "fifa_rank": 3449.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0011, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.2892, "tackles_won": 0.7978, "clearances": 4.2548, "aerial_won": 1.1899, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7169, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 34.7612, "accurate_pass": 26.8251, "duels_won": 2.9703, "total_long_balls": 6.6593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8057, "total_own_half_passes": 22.4558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9771, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8479, "crosses_total": 0.5549, "crosses_accurate": 0.278, "touches": 47.3121, "possession_lost": 9.8673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0379, "aerial_lost": 0.663, "total_contest": 0.3849, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0392, "challenges_lost": 0.6052, "fouls": 0.4048, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.941, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1109, "total_progression": 36.7119, "progressive_carries": 0.2781, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3775, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.023, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.023, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0186, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.035, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "player_id": 1082968, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 176, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0532, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0485, "finishing_factor": 1.0843, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "expected_assists": 0.1277, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.57, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1659, "combined_rank_score": 944.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 673.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7241, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1216.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7645, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Khumoyun Sherbutaev", "ranking": 1654 }, { "player_name": "Kuvonchbek Khushvaktov", "ranking": 1655 }, { "player_name": "Florian Grillitsch", "ranking": 1656 }, { "player_name": "Zakaria Labyad", "ranking": 1657 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Odriozola", "ranking": 1658 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Petar Sučić", "ranking": 1660 }, { "player_name": "Giacomo Raspadori", "ranking": 1661 }, { "player_name": "Wataru Endo", "ranking": 1662 }, { "player_name": "Barış Alper Yılmaz", "ranking": 1663 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Soler", "ranking": 1664 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.0929, "goal_rate": 0.0929, "shots_on_target": 0.3095, "total_shots": 0.9917, "expected_assists": 0.0475, "key_pass": 0.6411, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.4214, "accurate_pass": 18.1459, "duels_won": 4.7362, "total_long_balls": 2.255, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1319, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4034, "crosses_total": 3.2603, "crosses_accurate": 0.4618, "touches": 45.2968, "possession_lost": 11.717, "dispossessed": 0.3524, "duels_lost": 4.6084, "aerial_lost": 0.7395, "total_contest": 2.1283, "won_contest": 1.0084, "ball_recovery": 3.4707, "challenges_lost": 0.9585, "fouls": 1.5845, "fouls_drawn": 1.0793, "assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.076, "interceptions": 1.0961, "tackles_won": 1.2226, "tackles": 2.0263, "clearances": 1.207, "blocks": 0.1306, "big_chances_created": 0.1258, "big_chances_missed": 0.0053, "xgot": 0.044, "offsides": 0.0798, "ball_carries": 11.8641, "total_progression": 72.1881, "progressive_carries": 1.8336, "shots_off_target": 0.6822 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 11.1497, "expectedGoals": 0.0331, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.0257, "accuratePass": 17.4985, "totalShots": 0.7822 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08141448348760605, "model_output": 0.0814, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.0814, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.279797 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.233439 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.151696 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.098859 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.085396 } ], "others_margin": -0.503977 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09293845295906067, "model_output": 0.0929, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.042, "total": 0.0929, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.261561 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.228894 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.175966 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.112188 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.090011 } ], "others_margin": -0.372197 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30950963497161865, "model_output": 0.3095, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1479 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.087 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0729 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0472 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0412 } ], "others": -0.1277, "total": 0.3095, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.242976 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.135785 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.129886 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.0941 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.090081 } ], "others_margin": -0.345341 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9916946887969971, "model_output": 0.9917, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3704 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2177 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0721 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0558 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0541 } ], "others": -0.3528, "total": 0.9917, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.370382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.217671 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072107 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.055836 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.054065 } ], "others_margin": -0.352849 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04749026894569397, "model_output": 0.0475, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 0.0475, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.159952 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14151 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090441 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03511 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.028877 } ], "others_margin": -0.12885 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6411363482475281, "model_output": 0.6411, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.172 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0524 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 0.6411, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.227499 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063987 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05969 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.052187 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.026727 } ], "others_margin": -0.07396 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.764494895935059, "model_output": 6.7645, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0474 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 6.7645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047382 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.021105 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014417 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013899 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.011523 } ], "others_margin": -0.01778 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0812, "goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.0927, "shots_on_target": 0.3088, "total_shots": 0.9894, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assists": 0.0758, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0053, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6806 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0812, "goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.0927, "shots_on_target": 0.3088, "total_shots": 0.9894, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assists": 0.0758, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0053, "xgot": 0.0439, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6806 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.085, "goal_rate": 0.085, "shots_on_target": 0.2833, "total_shots": 0.9077, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assists": 0.0758, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0049, "xgot": 0.0403, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "skill_edge": -0.0242, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4913, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "market_value": 7000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5146 }, { "player": "Sebastián Cáceres", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4679 } ], "xg_override": 0.0745 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9894, "after": 0.9077 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6806, "after": 0.6244 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3088, "after": 0.2833 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0927, "after": 0.085 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0812, "after": 0.0745 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2833, "total_shots": 0.9077, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0049, "xgot": 0.0403, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2833, "total_shots": 0.9077, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0049, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0843, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0745, "after": 0.0547 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2833, "total_shots": 0.9077, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0049, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0843, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1659, "fifa_rank": 1216.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2833, "total_shots": 0.9077, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0049, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0532, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0843, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0532, "goal_rate": 0.085, "scorer_weight": 0.0593, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.065, "finishing_factor": 1.0843, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2833, "total_shots": 0.9077, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.6396, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 80.09, "total_pass": 22.3676, "accurate_pass": 18.1023, "duels_won": 4.7248, "total_long_balls": 2.2496, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1292, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3832, "crosses_total": 3.2525, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 45.1881, "possession_lost": 11.6889, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.5973, "aerial_lost": 0.7377, "total_contest": 2.1232, "won_contest": 1.006, "ball_recovery": 3.4624, "challenges_lost": 0.9562, "fouls": 1.5807, "fouls_drawn": 1.0767, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0935, "tackles_won": 1.2197, "tackles": 2.0214, "clearances": 1.2041, "blocks": 0.1303, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0049, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 11.8356, "total_progression": 72.0148, "progressive_carries": 1.8292, "shots_off_target": 0.6244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0532, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0485, "finishing_factor": 1.0843, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0485, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "provider_weight": 0.0621, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.1167, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Antonio Blanco": { "player_id": 855832, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 176, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0533, "finishing_factor": 1.0137, "creation_factor": 1.2297, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 36, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0841, "expected_assists": 0.0948, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.089, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0741, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2105, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2382, "combined_rank_score": 863.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 481.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8722, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 1245.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8422, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonio Blanco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Douglas Luiz", "ranking": 2377 }, { "player_name": "Bayron Oyarzo", "ranking": 2378 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Mesías", "ranking": 2379 }, { "player_name": "Virgiliu Postolachi", "ranking": 2380 }, { "player_name": "Jung Se-jun", "ranking": 2381 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gorka Guruzeta", "ranking": 2383 }, { "player_name": "Alfon González", "ranking": 2384 }, { "player_name": "Rashid Abubakar", "ranking": 2385 }, { "player_name": "Fredrik André Bjørkan", "ranking": 2386 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Escobar", "ranking": 2387 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 269.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.34, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6687, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assists": 0.0767, "assist_rate": 0.0767, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2113, "total_shots": 0.7916, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9136, "accurate_pass": 34.5289, "duels_won": 3.8964, "total_long_balls": 4.1563, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6599, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5017, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1576, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3714, "crosses_total": 0.9857, "crosses_accurate": 0.3594, "touches": 54.1775, "possession_lost": 8.9099, "dispossessed": 1.0753, "duels_lost": 5.0695, "aerial_won": 0.2809, "aerial_lost": 0.5803, "interceptions": 1.4299, "tackles_won": 0.87, "tackles": 2.0753, "clearances": 1.0064, "total_contest": 1.0194, "won_contest": 0.5867, "challenges_lost": 1.4497, "fouls": 1.5321, "fouls_drawn": 0.9589, "blocks": 0.1866, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 11.4025, "total_progression": 28.6899, "progressive_carries": 0.3015, "shots_off_target": 0.5803 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.76, "creative_index": 0.158, "expectedGoals": 0.0303, "expectedAssists": 0.0378, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0866 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6686944961547852, "model_output": 0.6687, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1193 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1095 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0391 } ], "others": -0.0882, "total": 0.6687, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125441 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.114495 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.065492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060425 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.050324 } ], "others_margin": -0.123943 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05226100981235504, "model_output": 0.0523, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.0523, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.130237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111485 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.111168 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.071189 } ], "others_margin": -0.200084 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0767214447259903, "model_output": 0.0767, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": 0.0034, "total": 0.0767, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.087092 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077892 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.074013 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.063602 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.045201 } ], "others_margin": 0.045115 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05441702529788017, "model_output": 0.0544, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.0544, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.236335 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.145928 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.127347 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119129 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051675 } ], "others_margin": -0.107597 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0565294548869133, "model_output": 0.0565, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0129, "total": 0.0565, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.149803 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.133749 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.106628 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096881 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051062 } ], "others_margin": -0.203686 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2113267034292221, "model_output": 0.2113, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0223, "total": 0.2113, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.210681 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.132331 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131163 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.09219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.028416 } ], "others_margin": -0.100207 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7916499376296997, "model_output": 0.7916, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1293 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0831 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0413 } ], "others": -0.1053, "total": 0.7916, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129324 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.083076 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.054376 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049105 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041266 } ], "others_margin": -0.105386 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.842208385467529, "model_output": 6.8422, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 6.8422, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031395 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027765 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019114 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018855 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008096 } ], "others_margin": -0.023942 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0566, "goal_rate": 0.0566, "shots_on_target": 0.2114, "total_shots": 0.792, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9861, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.281, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8703, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9593, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.5805 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assists": 0.0758, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.2086, "total_shots": 0.7978, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.281, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.5805 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9168, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5327, "after": 1.5489 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.4305, "after": 1.444 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9861, "after": 0.9933 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.792, "after": 0.7978 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assists": 0.0758, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.2086, "total_shots": 0.7978, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.281, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.5805 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assists": 0.0758, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goals": 0.0606, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "total_shots": 0.8669, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0185, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.6308, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "skill_edge": 0.0269, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.5316, "defender_skill": 0.4717, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Aleix Febas", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4717 } ], "xg_override": 0.0591 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.281, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7978, "after": 0.8669 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5805, "after": 0.6308 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2086, "after": 0.2267 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "total_shots": 0.8669, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0185, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.6308, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "total_shots": 0.8669, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.6308, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0137, "creation_factor": 1.2297 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0591, "after": 0.0434 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "total_shots": 0.8669, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.6308, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0137, "creation_factor": 1.2297, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2382, "fifa_rank": 1245.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "total_shots": 0.8669, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.6308, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0137, "creation_factor": 1.2297, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "scorer_weight": 0.044, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.0137, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.669, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "total_shots": 0.8669, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 39.9296, "accurate_pass": 34.5427, "duels_won": 3.898, "total_long_balls": 4.158, "accurate_long_balls": 2.661, "total_own_half_passes": 21.5103, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3771, "crosses_total": 0.9933, "crosses_accurate": 0.3595, "touches": 54.1992, "possession_lost": 8.9135, "dispossessed": 1.0757, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5805, "interceptions": 1.444, "tackles_won": 0.875, "tackles": 2.0761, "clearances": 1.0068, "total_contest": 1.0198, "won_contest": 0.5869, "challenges_lost": 1.4503, "fouls": 1.5489, "fouls_drawn": 0.9547, "blocks": 0.1867, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 11.4071, "total_progression": 28.7014, "progressive_carries": 0.3016, "shots_off_target": 0.6308, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0533, "finishing_factor": 1.0137, "creation_factor": 1.2297, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0533, "assist_rate": 0.0758, "provider_weight": 0.0674, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.1266, "creation_factor": 1.2297, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Denis Suárez": { "player_id": 138383, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 176, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.063, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1549, "finishing_factor": 1.0779, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3531, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.208, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1615, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3698, "expected_assists": 0.1374, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3706, "combined_rank_score": 1661.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2878.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9305, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Denis Suárez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "ranking": 3701 }, { "player_name": "Kervin Arriaga", "ranking": 3702 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Gil", "ranking": 3703 }, { "player_name": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "ranking": 3704 }, { "player_name": "Ismail Jakobs", "ranking": 3705 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ernest Muçi", "ranking": 3707 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Suazo", "ranking": 3708 }, { "player_name": "İrfan Can Kahveci", "ranking": 3709 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Beltrán", "ranking": 3710 }, { "player_name": "Niclas Eliasson", "ranking": 3711 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 105.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.86, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7725, "expected_assists": 0.1609, "assists": 0.1381, "assist_rate": 0.1381, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goals": 0.0978, "goal_rate": 0.0978, "shots_on_target": 0.3108, "total_shots": 0.9436, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.7445, "accurate_pass": 24.9713, "duels_won": 3.113, "total_long_balls": 2.6857, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0917, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8719, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0993, "crosses_total": 3.7227, "crosses_accurate": 1.2294, "touches": 44.6905, "possession_lost": 11.8848, "dispossessed": 0.7033, "duels_lost": 4.1291, "aerial_won": 0.1105, "aerial_lost": 0.4387, "interceptions": 0.3767, "tackles_won": 0.5806, "tackles": 0.955, "clearances": 0.5192, "total_contest": 1.9539, "won_contest": 0.9007, "challenges_lost": 1.2428, "fouls": 0.691, "fouls_drawn": 1.1469, "blocks": 0.0448, "big_chances_created": 0.0309, "big_chances_missed": 0.1308, "xgot": 0.0535, "ball_carries": 14.5842, "total_progression": 63.2692, "progressive_carries": 1.1974, "shots_off_target": 0.6327 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.2727, "creative_index": 0.6799, "expectedGoals": 0.0428, "expectedAssists": 0.1393, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1152 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.7724543809890747, "model_output": 1.7725, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1379 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1072 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0933 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0922 } ], "others": 0.3249, "total": 1.7725, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.130002 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127195 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.088782 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.071343 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.0658 } ], "others_margin": 0.202433 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.16091033816337585, "model_output": 0.1609, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0057 } ], "others": 0.0269, "total": 0.1609, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.140041 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112128 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.089317 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.062498 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043789 } ], "others_margin": 0.18292 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.13814273476600647, "model_output": 0.1381, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0068 } ], "others": 0.0155, "total": 0.1381, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.086749 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074466 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062602 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.05959 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.05743 } ], "others_margin": 0.118768 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08671822398900986, "model_output": 0.0867, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.0867, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.242748 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.152161 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.102086 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.066031 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.048435 } ], "others_margin": -0.077666 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09782655537128448, "model_output": 0.0978, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.0978, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.167739 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12714 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.110139 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.074426 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06211 } ], "others_margin": -0.056838 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.31080302596092224, "model_output": 0.3108, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0036, "total": 0.3108, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.271013 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140305 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101352 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.057586 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.051514 } ], "others_margin": -0.01148 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9435513019561768, "model_output": 0.9436, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2862 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0932 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.9436, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.286207 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142149 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09319 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.032551 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023826 } ], "others_margin": -0.00984 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.930456161499023, "model_output": 6.9305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 6.9305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034226 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030148 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021708 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.008761 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.00795 } ], "others_margin": 0.018025 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1605, "assists": 0.1378, "assist_rate": 0.1378, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "goals": 0.0976, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "shots_on_target": 0.3101, "total_shots": 0.9413, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7138, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3758, "tackles_won": 0.5792, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6893, "fouls_drawn": 1.1441, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0534, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6312 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0062)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1605, "assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "goals": 0.097, "goal_rate": 0.097, "shots_on_target": 0.3124, "total_shots": 0.9397, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0534, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6312 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0062, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7968, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.7138, "after": 3.7484 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6893, "after": 0.6974 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1605, "assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "goals": 0.097, "goal_rate": 0.097, "shots_on_target": 0.3124, "total_shots": 0.9436, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.1102, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0534, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6312 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1605, "assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "expected_goals": 0.0886, "goals": 0.0994, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.9666, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1337, "xgot": 0.0547, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6466, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "skill_edge": -0.0154, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4717, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Aleix Febas", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4717 } ], "xg_override": 0.0886 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1102, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9436, "after": 0.9666 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6312, "after": 0.6466 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3124, "after": 0.32 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1605, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0886, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.9666, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1337, "xgot": 0.0547, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6466, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.9666, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1337, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6466, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0779, "creation_factor": 0.8879 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0886, "after": 0.0651 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1605, "after": 0.1683 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.9666, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1337, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6466, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0779, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3706, "fifa_rank": 2878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.9666, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1337, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6466, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.063, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0779, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "scorer_weight": 0.0702, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0769, "finishing_factor": 1.0779, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.9666, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 71.71, "total_pass": 30.6707, "accurate_pass": 24.9114, "duels_won": 3.1055, "total_long_balls": 2.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0891, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8964, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8482, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0631, "crosses_total": 3.7484, "crosses_accurate": 1.2264, "touches": 44.5832, "possession_lost": 11.8563, "dispossessed": 0.7016, "duels_lost": 4.1192, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4376, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5797, "tackles": 0.9527, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 1.9492, "won_contest": 0.8985, "challenges_lost": 1.2398, "fouls": 0.6974, "fouls_drawn": 1.1411, "blocks": 0.0447, "big_chances_created": 0.0308, "big_chances_missed": 0.1337, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 14.5492, "total_progression": 63.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.6466, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aleix Febas", "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.063, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1549, "finishing_factor": 1.0779, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1549, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "provider_weight": 0.1494, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.2807, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Lucas Boyé": { "player_id": 814385, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 183, "market_value": 5300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goal_rate": 0.277, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "finishing_factor": 0.9811, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2017, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1505, "expected_assists": 0.032, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2454, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.533, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1089, "expected_assists": 0.2737, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3873, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2629, "combined_rank_score": 921.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1550.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7264, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Boyé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Augustine Chidi Kwem", "ranking": 2624 }, { "player_name": "Otabek Ahadov", "ranking": 2625 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Sandoval", "ranking": 2626 }, { "player_name": "Ruben Loftus-Cheek", "ranking": 2627 }, { "player_name": "Edu Expósito", "ranking": 2628 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Duván Zapata", "ranking": 2630 }, { "player_name": "Tosin Adarabioyo", "ranking": 2631 }, { "player_name": "Selton Sanchez", "ranking": 2632 }, { "player_name": "Jung-Min Kim", "ranking": 2633 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Barrenechea", "ranking": 2634 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.766, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9986, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 142.0, "goals_per90": 0.625, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.17, "shots_on_target_pct": 40.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.625, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2903, "goals": 0.2817, "goal_rate": 0.2817, "shots_on_target": 0.7214, "total_shots": 2.1402, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.6494, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.228, "accurate_pass": 10.2728, "duels_won": 5.9067, "total_long_balls": 0.9115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6073, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6006, "crosses_total": 0.393, "crosses_accurate": 0.1042, "touches": 34.4359, "possession_lost": 13.2211, "dispossessed": 1.695, "duels_lost": 9.1556, "aerial_lost": 2.6209, "total_contest": 2.1084, "won_contest": 0.6818, "ball_recovery": 2.4591, "challenges_lost": 1.1493, "fouls": 2.289, "fouls_drawn": 1.822, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "interceptions": 0.0547, "tackles_won": 1.1943, "tackles": 1.6922, "clearances": 0.9983, "blocks": 0.1931, "big_chances_created": 0.1213, "big_chances_missed": 0.0557, "xgot": 0.3962, "offsides": 0.4932, "ball_carries": 9.1449, "total_progression": 15.3885, "progressive_carries": 0.7316, "shots_off_target": 1.4188 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 4.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.3319, "expectedGoals": 0.3104, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.0665, "accuratePass": 9.4699, "totalShots": 2.1082 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2903476655483246, "model_output": 0.2903, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.2903, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.267272 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.119753 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.075615 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.064871 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.020259 } ], "others_margin": -0.032787 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2816828489303589, "model_output": 0.2817, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": 0.2817, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.23141 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.14061 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.077347 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.074342 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.061698 } ], "others_margin": 0.018499 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7214028835296631, "model_output": 0.7214, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1586 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0508 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0526 } ], "others": -0.0776, "total": 0.7214, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25855 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.071588 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.070305 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.068299 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.068129 } ], "others_margin": -0.10227 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.140172004699707, "model_output": 2.1402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5014 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1566 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 2.1402, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.501375 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.15662 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.05985 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.036747 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.026437 } ], "others_margin": -0.014697 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04263251647353172, "model_output": 0.0426, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0132, "total": 0.0426, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.207755 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.140351 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.093365 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.07657 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.0371 } ], "others_margin": -0.269996 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.649352490901947, "model_output": 0.6494, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1887 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0215 } ], "others": -0.0667, "total": 0.6494, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24699 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068728 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.047606 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039564 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.029513 } ], "others_margin": -0.097897 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.72643518447876, "model_output": 6.7264, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0492, "total": 6.7264, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041309 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.024649 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.019947 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.014757 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.013229 } ], "others_margin": -0.049187 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goals": 0.2813, "goal_rate": 0.2813, "shots_on_target": 0.7204, "total_shots": 2.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3924, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2858, "fouls_drawn": 1.8194, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 1.1926, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0556, "xgot": 0.3956, "offsides": 0.4925, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.4168 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0085)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goals": 0.2834, "goal_rate": 0.2834, "shots_on_target": 0.7234, "total_shots": 2.1417, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assists": 0.008, "assist_rate": 0.008, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0556, "xgot": 0.3956, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.4168 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0085, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8422, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1926, "after": 1.2048 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.8194, "after": 1.8129 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goals": 0.2834, "goal_rate": 0.2834, "shots_on_target": 0.7234, "total_shots": 2.1417, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assists": 0.008, "assist_rate": 0.008, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0556, "xgot": 0.3956, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.4168 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2833, "goals": 0.277, "goal_rate": 0.277, "shots_on_target": 0.707, "total_shots": 2.0931, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assists": 0.008, "assist_rate": 0.008, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0543, "xgot": 0.3866, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.3846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "skill_edge": -0.0114, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4659, "defender_skill": 0.4913, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "market_value": 7000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5146 }, { "player": "Sebastián Cáceres", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4679 } ], "xg_override": 0.2833 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1417, "after": 2.0931 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4168, "after": 1.3846 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7234, "after": 0.707 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3956, "after": 0.3866 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2899, "after": 0.2833 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2834, "after": 0.277 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2833, "goal_rate": 0.277, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.707, "total_shots": 2.0931, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0543, "xgot": 0.3866, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.3846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goal_rate": 0.277, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.707, "total_shots": 2.0931, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0543, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.3846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9811, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2833, "after": 0.2082 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goal_rate": 0.277, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.707, "total_shots": 2.0931, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0543, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.3846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9811, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2629, "fifa_rank": 1550.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goal_rate": 0.277, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.707, "total_shots": 2.0931, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0543, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.3846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9811, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.188, "goal_rate": 0.277, "scorer_weight": 0.2043, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.2239, "finishing_factor": 0.9811, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goal_rate": 0.277, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.707, "total_shots": 2.0931, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "key_pass": 0.6484, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 75.8, "total_pass": 14.2081, "accurate_pass": 10.2584, "duels_won": 5.8984, "total_long_balls": 0.9102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6064, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.59, "crosses_total": 0.3891, "crosses_accurate": 0.1041, "touches": 34.3877, "possession_lost": 13.2026, "dispossessed": 1.6926, "duels_lost": 9.1428, "aerial_lost": 2.6172, "total_contest": 2.1054, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 2.4557, "challenges_lost": 1.1477, "fouls": 2.2887, "fouls_drawn": 1.8129, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0541, "tackles_won": 1.2048, "tackles": 1.6898, "clearances": 0.9969, "blocks": 0.1928, "big_chances_created": 0.1211, "big_chances_missed": 0.0543, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4883, "ball_carries": 9.1321, "total_progression": 15.367, "progressive_carries": 0.7306, "shots_off_target": 1.3846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "finishing_factor": 0.9811, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "assist_rate": 0.008, "provider_weight": 0.0358, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0672, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Toni Martínez": { "player_id": 831253, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2426, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1916, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 1.1321, "creation_factor": 0.8522, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0119, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1819, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.1076, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.3729, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.012, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5449, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8192, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.129, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 12, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2078, "combined_rank_score": 790.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 345.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9892, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1236.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8207, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luiz Júnior", "ranking": 2073 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Rodríguez", "ranking": 2074 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 2075 }, { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "ranking": 2079 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Bakambu", "ranking": 2080 }, { "player_name": "Renato Veiga", "ranking": 2081 }, { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9995, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 233.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.7, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3384, "goals": 0.3943, "goal_rate": 0.3943, "shots_on_target": 0.8657, "total_shots": 2.3304, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.6338, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0701, "accurate_pass": 8.1828, "duels_won": 6.7671, "total_long_balls": 0.5594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0003, "crosses_total": 0.1834, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1993, "possession_lost": 9.7018, "dispossessed": 0.8145, "duels_lost": 6.4048, "aerial_lost": 3.4506, "total_contest": 0.9782, "won_contest": 0.1095, "ball_recovery": 1.4741, "challenges_lost": 0.4567, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 1.5967, "assists": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0211, "interceptions": 0.0059, "tackles_won": 0.4926, "tackles": 0.6106, "clearances": 1.0146, "blocks": 0.1314, "big_chances_created": 0.2486, "big_chances_missed": 0.3883, "xgot": 0.2674, "offsides": 0.4143, "ball_carries": 5.4516, "total_progression": 11.2666, "progressive_carries": 0.651, "shots_off_target": 1.4647 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.3444, "expectedGoals": 0.2828, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 4.8077, "accuratePass": 6.5178, "totalShots": 1.8898 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.33841025829315186, "model_output": 0.3384, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0173, "total": 0.3384, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.289119 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100092 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038464 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.032928 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.025588 } ], "others_margin": 0.052231 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3943139612674713, "model_output": 0.3943, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0621 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0239, "total": 0.3943, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.266474 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.154074 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.085779 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.0504 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.042889 } ], "others_margin": 0.062566 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8657456040382385, "model_output": 0.8657, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1681 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0436 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.02 } ], "others": 0.0413, "total": 0.8657, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.272106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.082718 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.055355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.041295 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.024023 } ], "others_margin": 0.048933 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.330416679382324, "model_output": 2.3304, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5681 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1044 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0836 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": 0.117, "total": 2.3304, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.568126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.104353 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.08358 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.045098 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038405 } ], "others_margin": 0.117015 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03321457281708717, "model_output": 0.0332, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0332, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.257539 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.180955 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.165168 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.118431 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.05969 } ], "others_margin": -0.392552 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6337531805038452, "model_output": 0.6338, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1912 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0594 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0517 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0322 } ], "others": -0.047, "total": 0.6338, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.249995 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066408 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.055222 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.046271 } ], "others_margin": -0.071586 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8206868171691895, "model_output": 6.8207, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0071, "total": 6.8207, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052654 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023739 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.015057 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.013068 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010565 } ], "others_margin": 0.007209 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3382, "goals": 0.3941, "goal_rate": 0.3941, "shots_on_target": 0.8653, "total_shots": 2.3293, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1833, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8931, "fouls_drawn": 1.5959, "assists": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0211, "interceptions": 0.0059, "tackles_won": 0.4924, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3881, "xgot": 0.2673, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.464 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7300000, "quality_factor": 0.4903, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0115)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3382, "goals": 0.3896, "goal_rate": 0.3896, "shots_on_target": 0.8554, "total_shots": 2.329, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3881, "xgot": 0.2673, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.464 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0115, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8537, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8653, "after": 0.8554 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3382, "goals": 0.3896, "goal_rate": 0.3896, "shots_on_target": 0.8554, "total_shots": 2.329, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3881, "xgot": 0.2673, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.464 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.33, "goals": 0.3802, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "shots_on_target": 0.8347, "total_shots": 2.2726, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3787, "xgot": 0.2608, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.4286, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "skill_edge": -0.0005, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4903, "defender_skill": 0.4913, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "market_value": 7000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5146 }, { "player": "Sebastián Cáceres", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4679 } ], "xg_override": 0.33 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.329, "after": 2.2726 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.464, "after": 1.4286 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8554, "after": 0.8347 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3896, "after": 0.3802 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3881, "after": 0.3787 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3382, "after": 0.33 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2673, "after": 0.2608 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.33, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8347, "total_shots": 2.2726, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3787, "xgot": 0.2608, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.4286, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2426, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8347, "total_shots": 2.2726, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3787, "xgot": 0.1916, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.4286, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1321, "creation_factor": 0.8522 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.33, "after": 0.2426 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2426, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8347, "total_shots": 2.2726, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3787, "xgot": 0.1916, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.4286, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1321, "creation_factor": 0.8522, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2078, "fifa_rank": 1236.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2426, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8347, "total_shots": 2.2726, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3787, "xgot": 0.1916, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.4286, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1321, "creation_factor": 0.8522, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2154, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "scorer_weight": 0.2746, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.301, "finishing_factor": 1.1321, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2426, "goal_rate": 0.3802, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8347, "total_shots": 2.2726, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.6334, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 76.83, "total_pass": 14.0631, "accurate_pass": 8.1787, "duels_won": 6.7637, "total_long_balls": 0.5591, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3203, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9973, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0571, "touches": 25.1867, "possession_lost": 9.6969, "dispossessed": 0.8141, "duels_lost": 6.4016, "aerial_lost": 3.4489, "total_contest": 0.9777, "won_contest": 0.1094, "ball_recovery": 1.4734, "challenges_lost": 0.4565, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.5964, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0058, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6103, "clearances": 1.0141, "blocks": 0.1313, "big_chances_created": 0.2485, "big_chances_missed": 0.3787, "xgot": 0.1916, "offsides": 0.4093, "ball_carries": 5.4489, "total_progression": 11.261, "progressive_carries": 0.6507, "shots_off_target": 1.4286, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 1.1321, "creation_factor": 0.8522, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "provider_weight": 0.0297, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0557, "creation_factor": 0.8522, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "player_id": 1084381, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0834, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0527, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.046, "finishing_factor": 0.8989, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3934, "expected_assists": 0.0358, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2584, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2479, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3981, "combined_rank_score": 1953.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3516.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.804, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo Ibáñez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Patrick Sequeira", "ranking": 3976 }, { "player_name": "Javi Rueda", "ranking": 3977 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Potts", "ranking": 3978 }, { "player_name": "Chupe", "ranking": 3979 }, { "player_name": "Bigas", "ranking": 3980 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jonny", "ranking": 3982 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Belloumi", "ranking": 3983 }, { "player_name": "Jack Hendry", "ranking": 3984 }, { "player_name": "Areso", "ranking": 3985 }, { "player_name": "Gorosabel", "ranking": 3986 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 45, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 45, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9984, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 20.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 45 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5876, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0.0787, "assist_rate": 0.0787, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "shots_on_target": 0.2823, "total_shots": 0.9824, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2541, "accurate_pass": 22.2701, "duels_won": 5.7683, "total_long_balls": 2.2359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8308, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7096, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5605, "crosses_total": 0.8325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0828, "touches": 44.4903, "possession_lost": 9.8892, "dispossessed": 1.4024, "duels_lost": 5.1909, "aerial_won": 0.74, "aerial_lost": 0.3836, "interceptions": 1.0646, "tackles_won": 0.9164, "tackles": 2.2669, "clearances": 1.4009, "total_contest": 1.6832, "won_contest": 1.0024, "challenges_lost": 1.0077, "fouls": 1.7173, "fouls_drawn": 1.7591, "blocks": 0.4621, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1433, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 13.5334, "total_progression": 65.355, "progressive_carries": 1.5294, "shots_off_target": 0.7001 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9575, "creative_index": 0.1463, "expectedGoals": 0.0905, "expectedAssists": 0.0171, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2149 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5875714421272278, "model_output": 0.5876, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1087 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0904 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0896 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0427 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0265 } ], "others": -0.1267, "total": 0.5876, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.129766 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.12253 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121434 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.056021 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.036389 } ], "others_margin": -0.195297 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04494931176304817, "model_output": 0.0449, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 0.0449, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.22067 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.138336 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122479 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.095445 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.05068 } ], "others_margin": -0.261967 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07867243885993958, "model_output": 0.0787, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.004 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 0.0787, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.085065 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.069831 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.055733 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050228 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.042993 } ], "others_margin": -0.195318 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07373277097940445, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.130366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116101 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.082552 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078222 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.025825 } ], "others_margin": -0.045117 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.061969295144081116, "model_output": 0.062, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.062, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.168673 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.162389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103323 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.098293 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.040146 } ], "others_margin": -0.07993 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2822805941104889, "model_output": 0.2823, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0427 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0129, "total": 0.2823, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.157935 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142874 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.059503 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033408 } ], "others_margin": -0.044871 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9823542237281799, "model_output": 0.9824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1457 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0508, "total": 0.9824, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.145708 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.073199 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034921 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01874 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018642 } ], "others_margin": -0.050868 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.804035186767578, "model_output": 6.804, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.804, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031382 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024453 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017764 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009705 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.005923 } ], "others_margin": -0.022558 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0.0785, "assist_rate": 0.0785, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2818, "total_shots": 0.9808, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8312, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0629, "tackles_won": 0.9149, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7146, "fouls_drawn": 1.7563, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.013, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8892, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.7146, "after": 1.7077 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9808, "after": 0.9874 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0629, "after": 1.0683 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assists": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.0834, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8989, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0736, "after": 0.0541 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.0834, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8989, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3981, "fifa_rank": 3516.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.0834, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0527, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8989, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "scorer_weight": 0.0486, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0533, "finishing_factor": 0.8989, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5866, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.9874, "rating": 6.804, "minutes": 80.03, "total_pass": 27.2105, "accurate_pass": 22.2345, "duels_won": 5.7591, "total_long_balls": 2.2323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8295, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6941, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5404, "crosses_total": 0.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0827, "touches": 44.4191, "possession_lost": 9.8734, "dispossessed": 1.4002, "duels_lost": 5.1826, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "aerial_lost": 0.383, "interceptions": 1.0683, "tackles_won": 0.9107, "tackles": 2.2633, "clearances": 1.3987, "total_contest": 1.6805, "won_contest": 1.0008, "challenges_lost": 1.0061, "fouls": 1.7077, "fouls_drawn": 1.7527, "blocks": 0.4614, "big_chances_created": 0.0067, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.0834, "ball_carries": 13.5117, "total_progression": 65.2504, "progressive_carries": 1.527, "shots_off_target": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0527, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.046, "finishing_factor": 0.8989, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.046, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "provider_weight": 0.0589, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.1106, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Grégoire Swiderski": { "player_id": 1440572, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 187, "market_value": 240000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "none", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Grégoire Swiderski", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€240,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 240000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall n/a)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "ranking_match": "none" } } ] }, "Youssef Enriquez": { "player_id": 1403364, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 170, "market_value": 5300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6665, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.1191, "dispossessed": 0.1532, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.304, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.68, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0674, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0552, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.3396, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081809, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 413, "combined_rank_score": 283.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6665, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Youssef Enriquez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jun-sang Lee", "ranking": 408 }, { "player_name": "Boburbek Yuldashov", "ranking": 409 }, { "player_name": "Dor Peretz", "ranking": 410 }, { "player_name": "Itsuki Urata", "ranking": 411 }, { "player_name": "Chi-Won Choi", "ranking": 412 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Beom Song", "ranking": 414 }, { "player_name": "Irakli Azarovi", "ranking": 415 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Freeman", "ranking": 416 }, { "player_name": "Johaneko Louis Jean", "ranking": 417 }, { "player_name": "Roman Begunov", "ranking": 418 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.684825411466107, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3038557005211867, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9984, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (31 historical appearances) to 13.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.30)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2925, "tackles": 0.5922, "tackles_won": 0.3212, "clearances": 0.993, "aerial_won": 0.3529, "total_shots": 0.1862, "rating": 6.6665, "minutes": 24.79, "total_pass": 8.7311, "accurate_pass": 6.8231, "duels_won": 1.7154, "total_long_balls": 1.6138, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4653, "total_own_half_passes": 4.377, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6475, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1756, "crosses_total": 1.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.6159, "touches": 18.3119, "possession_lost": 3.8449, "dispossessed": 0.1534, "duels_lost": 1.2518, "aerial_lost": 0.0508, "total_contest": 0.6254, "won_contest": 0.2738, "ball_recovery": 0.8159, "challenges_lost": 0.1882, "fouls": 0.5078, "fouls_drawn": 0.3989, "blocks": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "shots_on_target": 0.082, "big_chances_created": 0.104, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 2.9304, "total_progression": 15.1047, "progressive_carries": 0.2251, "key_pass": 0.4581, "shots_off_target": 0.1042 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.5521, "aerialWon": 0.3374, "totalClearance_p90": 4.1533, "totalTackle": 0.8792, "defensive_actions": 1.0959 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.29252889752388, "model_output": 0.2925, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4748 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.2925, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.801888 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.128869 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.042453 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038122 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.031285 } ], "others_margin": -0.113013 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5921832323074341, "model_output": 0.5922, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7751 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0149 } ], "others": 0.0225, "total": 0.5922, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.814238 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.057568 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.040988 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.036298 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.025873 } ], "others_margin": 0.038662 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3211989402770996, "model_output": 0.3212, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4886 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0029, "total": 0.3212, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.848603 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.071034 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.048306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.031716 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.030707 } ], "others_margin": -0.009113 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9929633736610413, "model_output": 0.993, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0736 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3068 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0457 } ], "others": 0.171, "total": 0.993, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.926483 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.255838 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.133101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.059801 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.054046 } ], "others_margin": 0.188849 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3528936207294464, "model_output": 0.3529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7728 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.221 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0169 } ], "others": 0.0142, "total": 0.3529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.823471 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.455032 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.090737 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.084558 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.051318 } ], "others_margin": 0.040758 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1862345039844513, "model_output": 0.1862, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0742 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": 0.0128, "total": 0.1862, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.202046 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.074207 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009864 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008154 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006815 } ], "others_margin": 0.012821 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666506767272949, "model_output": 6.6665, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 6.6665, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.037212 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.034489 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013674 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011642 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.010678 } ], "others_margin": -0.010502 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2921, "tackles": 0.5912, "tackles_won": 0.3207, "clearances": 0.9914, "aerial_won": 0.3523, "total_shots": 0.1859, "rating": 6.6665, "minutes": 24.79, "total_pass": 8.7171, "accurate_pass": 6.8122, "duels_won": 1.7127, "total_long_balls": 1.6112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4646, "total_own_half_passes": 4.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6417, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1705, "crosses_total": 1.4046, "crosses_accurate": 0.6149, "touches": 18.2826, "possession_lost": 3.8387, "dispossessed": 0.1532, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.2734, "ball_recovery": 0.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.1879, "fouls": 0.507, "fouls_drawn": 0.3983, "blocks": 0.0971, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.0819, "big_chances_created": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 2.9257, "total_progression": 15.0805, "progressive_carries": 0.2247, "key_pass": 0.4574, "shots_off_target": 0.104 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.8 to 13.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1612, "tackles": 0.3264, "tackles_won": 0.177, "clearances": 0.5473, "aerial_won": 0.1945, "total_shots": 0.1026, "rating": 6.6665, "minutes": 13.68, "total_pass": 4.8121, "accurate_pass": 3.7605, "duels_won": 0.9455, "total_long_balls": 0.8894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2565, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0103, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7502, "crosses_total": 0.7754, "crosses_accurate": 0.3394, "touches": 10.0925, "possession_lost": 2.1191, "dispossessed": 0.1532, "duels_lost": 0.6899, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3447, "won_contest": 0.1509, "ball_recovery": 0.4497, "challenges_lost": 0.1879, "fouls": 0.2799, "fouls_drawn": 0.2199, "blocks": 0.0536, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0.0452, "big_chances_created": 0.0573, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 1.6151, "total_progression": 8.3249, "progressive_carries": 0.124, "key_pass": 0.2525, "shots_off_target": 0.0574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.304, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.68 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.68, "projection_minutes": 24.79, "minutes_scale": 0.552, "appearance_probability": 0.304 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1612, "tackles": 0.3264, "tackles_won": 0.177, "clearances": 0.5473, "aerial_won": 0.1945, "total_shots": 0.1026, "rating": 6.6665, "minutes": 13.68, "total_pass": 4.8121, "accurate_pass": 3.7605, "duels_won": 0.9455, "total_long_balls": 0.8894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2565, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0103, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7502, "crosses_total": 0.7754, "crosses_accurate": 0.3394, "touches": 10.0925, "possession_lost": 2.1191, "dispossessed": 0.1532, "duels_lost": 0.6899, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3447, "won_contest": 0.1509, "ball_recovery": 0.4497, "challenges_lost": 0.1879, "fouls": 0.2799, "fouls_drawn": 0.2199, "blocks": 0.0536, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0.0452, "big_chances_created": 0.0573, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 1.6151, "total_progression": 8.3249, "progressive_carries": 0.124, "key_pass": 0.2525, "shots_off_target": 0.0574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.304, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.68 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1612, "tackles": 0.3264, "tackles_won": 0.177, "clearances": 0.5473, "aerial_won": 0.1945, "total_shots": 0.1026, "rating": 6.6665, "minutes": 13.68, "total_pass": 4.8121, "accurate_pass": 3.7605, "duels_won": 0.9455, "total_long_balls": 0.8894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2565, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0103, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7502, "crosses_total": 0.7754, "crosses_accurate": 0.3394, "touches": 10.0925, "possession_lost": 2.1191, "dispossessed": 0.1532, "duels_lost": 0.6899, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3447, "won_contest": 0.1509, "ball_recovery": 0.4497, "challenges_lost": 0.1879, "fouls": 0.2799, "fouls_drawn": 0.2199, "blocks": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0.0452, "big_chances_created": 0.0573, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 1.6151, "total_progression": 8.3249, "progressive_carries": 0.124, "key_pass": 0.2525, "shots_off_target": 0.0574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.304, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.68, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.304, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1612, "tackles": 0.3264, "tackles_won": 0.177, "clearances": 0.5473, "aerial_won": 0.1945, "total_shots": 0.1026, "rating": 6.6665, "minutes": 13.68, "total_pass": 4.8121, "accurate_pass": 3.7605, "duels_won": 0.9455, "total_long_balls": 0.8894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2565, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0103, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7502, "crosses_total": 0.7754, "crosses_accurate": 0.3394, "touches": 10.0925, "possession_lost": 2.1191, "dispossessed": 0.1532, "duels_lost": 0.6899, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3447, "won_contest": 0.1509, "ball_recovery": 0.4497, "challenges_lost": 0.1879, "fouls": 0.2799, "fouls_drawn": 0.2199, "blocks": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0.0452, "big_chances_created": 0.0573, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 1.6151, "total_progression": 8.3249, "progressive_carries": 0.124, "key_pass": 0.2525, "shots_off_target": 0.0574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.304, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.68, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 413, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] }, "Victor Parada": { "player_id": 985726, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 184, "market_value": 3900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2795, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081809, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1129, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2617, "combined_rank_score": 1181.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 916.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4966, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1447.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6222, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Parada", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Herrera", "ranking": 2612 }, { "player_name": "Oybek Urmonjonov", "ranking": 2613 }, { "player_name": "Jeremiah Mensah", "ranking": 2614 }, { "player_name": "Bendito Mantato", "ranking": 2615 }, { "player_name": "Kieran Trippier", "ranking": 2616 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximilian Arnold", "ranking": 2618 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alfaro", "ranking": 2619 }, { "player_name": "Min-Sung Kim", "ranking": 2620 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Amoura", "ranking": 2621 }, { "player_name": "Łukasz Skorupski", "ranking": 2622 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.61644058998921, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.30074729954496415, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (30 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.30)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2933, "tackles": 0.4792, "tackles_won": 0.2667, "clearances": 0.9228, "aerial_won": 0.3832, "total_shots": 0.1339, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 20.49, "total_pass": 5.6998, "accurate_pass": 4.1449, "duels_won": 1.6164, "total_long_balls": 1.2734, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5393, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1571, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1571, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9878, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2428, "possession_lost": 2.5864, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5512, "aerial_lost": 0.2696, "total_contest": 0.3312, "won_contest": 0.3312, "ball_recovery": 0.9745, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2815, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2696, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1339 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.1828, "aerialWon": 0.866, "totalClearance_p90": 3.5484, "totalTackle": 1.2381, "defensive_actions": 1.7254 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2932625710964203, "model_output": 0.2933, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4854 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.2933, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.829629 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.119065 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.028398 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.025577 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021548 } ], "others_margin": -0.052662 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4792236089706421, "model_output": 0.4792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7834 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0415, "total": 0.4792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.827825 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059373 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.040441 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.027616 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.027578 } ], "others_margin": -0.083141 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.26667889952659607, "model_output": 0.2667, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5053 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0558, "total": 0.2667, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.895524 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.039093 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.035259 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.029829 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.025475 } ], "others_margin": -0.189851 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9228101372718811, "model_output": 0.9228, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2477 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0558 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0452 } ], "others": -0.137, "total": 0.9228, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.063584 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060389 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.051279 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.043606 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.043603 } ], "others_margin": -0.138433 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.38315895199775696, "model_output": 0.3832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8514 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 0.3832, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.962743 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.223736 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.042848 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.029721 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025189 } ], "others_margin": -0.105022 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.13389195501804352, "model_output": 0.1339, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2287 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0607, "total": 0.1339, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.2287 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019027 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011925 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011843 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008515 } ], "others_margin": -0.060599 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6221818923950195, "model_output": 6.6222, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0462, "total": 6.6222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.042422 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022013 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020885 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016491 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014457 } ], "others_margin": -0.046253 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2926, "tackles": 0.4781, "tackles_won": 0.266, "clearances": 0.9206, "aerial_won": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.1336, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 20.49, "total_pass": 5.6861, "accurate_pass": 4.135, "duels_won": 1.6125, "total_long_balls": 1.2703, "accurate_long_balls": 0.538, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1519, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1519, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.983, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2182, "possession_lost": 2.5802, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5499, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.3304, "won_contest": 0.3304, "ball_recovery": 0.9722, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2808, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.269, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1336 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3900000, "quality_factor": 0.4486, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1944, "tackles": 0.3177, "tackles_won": 0.1768, "clearances": 0.6118, "aerial_won": 0.254, "total_shots": 0.0888, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0888, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.62, "projection_minutes": 20.49, "minutes_scale": 0.6645, "appearance_probability": 0.301 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1944, "tackles": 0.3177, "tackles_won": 0.1768, "clearances": 0.6118, "aerial_won": 0.254, "total_shots": 0.0888, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0888, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1944, "tackles": 0.3177, "tackles_won": 0.1768, "clearances": 0.6118, "aerial_won": 0.254, "total_shots": 0.0888, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0888, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.301, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1944, "tackles": 0.3177, "tackles_won": 0.1768, "clearances": 0.6118, "aerial_won": 0.254, "total_shots": 0.0888, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0888, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2617, "fifa_rank": 1447.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Ángel Pérez": { "player_id": 1513222, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1059, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.0926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 6.0316, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0292, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.309, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1258, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.1624, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4533, "expected_assists": 0.196, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1634, "expected_assists": 0.4685, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "expected_assists": 0.3338, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.3395, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0211, "expected_assists": 0.1541, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.092, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4209, "combined_rank_score": 2239.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 236.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 4243.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7656, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ángel Pérez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Toti", "ranking": 4204 }, { "player_name": "Tristan Crama", "ranking": 4205 }, { "player_name": "Léo Scienza", "ranking": 4206 }, { "player_name": "Iván Villar", "ranking": 4207 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Avom Ebong", "ranking": 4208 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Salomón Rondón", "ranking": 4210 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Niño", "ranking": 4211 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 24, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05070150421028, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.309, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9975, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (24 historical appearances) to 22.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.31); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7042, "expected_assists": 0.1069, "assists": 0.1285, "assist_rate": 0.1285, "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.0953, "shots_on_target": 0.2148, "total_shots": 0.7587, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 9.9135, "accurate_pass": 6.9222, "duels_won": 1.9329, "total_long_balls": 0.3887, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.726, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1963, "crosses_total": 1.7104, "crosses_accurate": 0.3887, "touches": 17.3343, "possession_lost": 6.0904, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7191, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3304, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6608, "tackles": 0.6608, "clearances": 0.6696, "total_contest": 1.6696, "won_contest": 0.6113, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3304, "fouls_drawn": 0.6608, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0295, "ball_carries": 4.7512, "total_progression": 26.0602, "progressive_carries": 1.0496, "shots_off_target": 0.5439 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1531, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1301, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1106, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.094, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0799, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0679, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0577, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0491, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0355, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.4467, "creative_index": 0.6046, "expectedGoals": 0.1107, "expectedAssists": 0.1689, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.5487 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7041712999343872, "model_output": 0.7042, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3696 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": 0.0514, "total": 0.7042, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.53435 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.110641 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.079725 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.061937 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.031395 } ], "others_margin": 0.075897 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1069478914141655, "model_output": 0.1069, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 0.1069, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410445 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.185837 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.136579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.076364 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.046959 } ], "others_margin": 0.186894 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12849557399749756, "model_output": 0.1285, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 0.1285, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.219324 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10246 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.100764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063755 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.054458 } ], "others_margin": 0.285099 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06862341612577438, "model_output": 0.0686, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0002, "total": 0.0686, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.611321 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.191044 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089981 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.06767 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058137 } ], "others_margin": 0.002968 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09528207778930664, "model_output": 0.0953, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 0.0953, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.448961 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.193836 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.081924 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.081588 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055058 } ], "others_margin": 0.01059 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21477240324020386, "model_output": 0.2148, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1675 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": 0.0096, "total": 0.2148, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.722091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.140682 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.086941 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.075719 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04294 } ], "others_margin": 0.0452 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7586873173713684, "model_output": 0.7587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.526 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2008 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0354 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.7587, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525993 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.20085 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.049021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04158 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.035351 } ], "others_margin": -0.037656 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.765637397766113, "model_output": 6.7656, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 6.7656, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.033321 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.017141 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.012164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011517 } ], "others_margin": -0.001325 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7024, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "assists": 0.1282, "assist_rate": 0.1282, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goals": 0.095, "goal_rate": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.7568, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 9.8887, "accurate_pass": 6.9049, "duels_won": 1.9281, "total_long_balls": 0.3877, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7192, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1858, "crosses_total": 1.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.3877, "touches": 17.291, "possession_lost": 6.0752, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7148, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3296, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6591, "tackles": 0.6591, "clearances": 0.6679, "total_contest": 1.6654, "won_contest": 0.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.6591, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 4.7393, "total_progression": 25.995, "progressive_carries": 1.047, "shots_off_target": 0.5425 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0179)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7024, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "assists": 0.1277, "assist_rate": 0.1277, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goals": 0.0933, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 0.7507, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 9.8887, "accurate_pass": 6.9049, "duels_won": 1.9281, "total_long_balls": 0.3877, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7192, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1858, "crosses_total": 1.6903, "crosses_accurate": 0.3877, "touches": 17.291, "possession_lost": 6.0752, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7148, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3296, "interceptions": 0.0055, "tackles_won": 0.6491, "tackles": 0.6591, "clearances": 0.6679, "total_contest": 1.6654, "won_contest": 0.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3274, "fouls_drawn": 0.6491, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 4.7393, "total_progression": 25.995, "progressive_carries": 1.047, "shots_off_target": 0.5425 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0179, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2468, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7061, "after": 1.6903 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6591, "after": 0.6491 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6591, "after": 0.6491 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7568, "after": 0.7507 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0055 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.2 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.1059, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.068, "goals": 0.0926, "goal_rate": 0.0926, "shots_on_target": 0.2107, "total_shots": 0.7493, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.05, "total_pass": 9.8178, "accurate_pass": 6.8554, "duels_won": 1.9143, "total_long_balls": 0.3849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6997, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1558, "crosses_total": 1.6782, "crosses_accurate": 0.3849, "touches": 17.167, "possession_lost": 6.0316, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7025, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3296, "interceptions": 0.0055, "tackles_won": 0.6444, "tackles": 0.6544, "clearances": 0.6631, "total_contest": 1.6535, "won_contest": 0.6054, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3251, "fouls_drawn": 0.6444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0292, "ball_carries": 4.7053, "total_progression": 25.8086, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.5386, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.309, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.05, "projection_minutes": 22.21, "minutes_scale": 0.9928, "appearance_probability": 0.309 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.1059, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.068, "goals": 0.0926, "goal_rate": 0.0926, "shots_on_target": 0.2107, "total_shots": 0.7493, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.05, "total_pass": 9.8178, "accurate_pass": 6.8554, "duels_won": 1.9143, "total_long_balls": 0.3849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6997, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1558, "crosses_total": 1.6782, "crosses_accurate": 0.3849, "touches": 17.167, "possession_lost": 6.0316, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7025, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3296, "interceptions": 0.0055, "tackles_won": 0.6444, "tackles": 0.6544, "clearances": 0.6631, "total_contest": 1.6535, "won_contest": 0.6054, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3251, "fouls_drawn": 0.6444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0292, "ball_carries": 4.7053, "total_progression": 25.8086, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.5386, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.309, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.1059, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.0926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2107, "total_shots": 0.7493, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.05, "total_pass": 9.8178, "accurate_pass": 6.8554, "duels_won": 1.9143, "total_long_balls": 0.3849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6997, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1558, "crosses_total": 1.6782, "crosses_accurate": 0.3849, "touches": 17.167, "possession_lost": 6.0316, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7025, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3296, "interceptions": 0.0055, "tackles_won": 0.6444, "tackles": 0.6544, "clearances": 0.6631, "total_contest": 1.6535, "won_contest": 0.6054, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3251, "fouls_drawn": 0.6444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0292, "ball_carries": 4.7053, "total_progression": 25.8086, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.5386, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.309, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.309, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.1059, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.0926, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2107, "total_shots": 0.7493, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.05, "total_pass": 9.8178, "accurate_pass": 6.8554, "duels_won": 1.9143, "total_long_balls": 0.3849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6997, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1558, "crosses_total": 1.6782, "crosses_accurate": 0.3849, "touches": 17.167, "possession_lost": 6.0316, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7025, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3296, "interceptions": 0.0055, "tackles_won": 0.6444, "tackles": 0.6544, "clearances": 0.6631, "total_contest": 1.6535, "won_contest": 0.6054, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3251, "fouls_drawn": 0.6444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0292, "ball_carries": 4.7053, "total_progression": 25.8086, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.5386, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.309, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4209, "fifa_rank": 4243.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] }, "Carles Aleñá": { "player_id": 794937, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0235, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0901, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1123, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2212, "combined_rank_score": 1041.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7174, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carles Aleñá", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Darko Velkovski", "ranking": 2207 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Wieser", "ranking": 2208 }, { "player_name": "Zafar Sadullayev", "ranking": 2209 }, { "player_name": "Tyrell Malacia", "ranking": 2210 }, { "player_name": "Yeremay Hernández", "ranking": 2211 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Cestero", "ranking": 2213 }, { "player_name": "Wallace Yan", "ranking": 2214 }, { "player_name": "Behruz Uktamov", "ranking": 2215 }, { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Kenzhaev", "ranking": 2216 }, { "player_name": "Ravshanbek Yagudin", "ranking": 2217 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.692, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9977, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 6.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (40 historical appearances) to 13.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.69); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 6.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.425, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0575, "assist_rate": 0.0575, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "shots_on_target": 0.1406, "total_shots": 0.4728, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3258, "accurate_pass": 9.0704, "duels_won": 0.9854, "total_long_balls": 0.467, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3216, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2796, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "crosses_total": 1.4543, "crosses_accurate": 0.2959, "touches": 15.2867, "possession_lost": 3.5232, "dispossessed": 0.804, "duels_lost": 1.4241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2203, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2812, "tackles": 0.3531, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3506, "won_contest": 0.149, "challenges_lost": 0.0271, "fouls": 0.171, "fouls_drawn": 0.4833, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2971, "total_progression": 5.2545, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3322 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4825, "creative_index": 0.2918, "expectedGoals": 0.0343, "expectedAssists": 0.0452, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0966 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4249560534954071, "model_output": 0.425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4584 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0057, "total": 0.425, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.720164 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.065952 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.054844 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.051233 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.033673 } ], "others_margin": 0.013474 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.045480646193027496, "model_output": 0.0455, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 0.0455, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.578704 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.158531 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.083626 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.078692 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.06436 } ], "others_margin": -0.114737 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.057486604899168015, "model_output": 0.0575, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0575, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.317499 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.127777 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.108637 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101915 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.093928 } ], "others_margin": -0.059061 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.038038454949855804, "model_output": 0.038, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.613972 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.180764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.117212 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.07101 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034276 } ], "others_margin": -0.12502 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.049080781638622284, "model_output": 0.0491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0491, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.495177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.163626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.084469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080044 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.071734 } ], "others_margin": -0.097847 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14060193300247192, "model_output": 0.1406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": 0.0001, "total": 0.1406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.572218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.240649 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.205277 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.143246 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034301 } ], "others_margin": 0.000463 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47275832295417786, "model_output": 0.4728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3994 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1982 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0778 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0208 } ], "others": -0.0579, "total": 0.4728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.399358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198221 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077768 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.034211 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.020797 } ], "others_margin": -0.057974 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717392444610596, "model_output": 6.7174, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0902 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 6.7174, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090249 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042356 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041863 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030682 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012024 } ], "others_margin": -0.003903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.424, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.0574, "assist_rate": 0.0574, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1403, "total_shots": 0.4717, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.451, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3314 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.424, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.0574, "assist_rate": 0.0574, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "total_shots": 0.4722, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3314 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0276, "after": 0.014 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0329, "after": 0.0239 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2212, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "scorer_weight": 0.0154, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0235, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0235, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "provider_weight": 0.0264, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0496, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Miguel Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1014118, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0226, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4196, "combined_rank_score": 2227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6441, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 }, { "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking": 4195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 }, { "player_name": "Bartosz Slisz", "ranking": 4201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37070150421028, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.56230461382774, "market_value_adjustment": 0.991, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0765, "goal_rate": 0.0765, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6207, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3796, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1662, "accurate_pass": 1.4966, "duels_won": 0.7775, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4966, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.449, "possession_lost": 2.1166, "dispossessed": 0.7775, "duels_lost": 1.0583, "aerial_lost": 0.2809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1662, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.3887, "clearances": 0.2809, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8853, "total_progression": 15.6129, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "shots_off_target": 0.4077 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 2.1662, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.4966, "accuratePass": 1.4966, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0602760910987854, "model_output": 0.0603, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0792 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.0603, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.512312 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.194851 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.112157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.058522 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.054944 } ], "others_margin": -0.254117 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07646875828504562, "model_output": 0.0765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0699 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0765, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.421303 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.183304 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.092811 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072725 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.067331 } ], "others_margin": -0.14061 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21304082870483398, "model_output": 0.213, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2121 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.501562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08859 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062695 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059538 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.043671 } ], "others_margin": -0.169665 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6207082271575928, "model_output": 0.6207, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1465 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.056 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0876, "total": 0.6207, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494977 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146469 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.055979 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.049311 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.030662 } ], "others_margin": -0.087692 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.026378242298960686, "model_output": 0.0264, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 0.0264, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.372947 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.257868 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.215234 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.129894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074594 } ], "others_margin": 0.160831 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37961122393608093, "model_output": 0.3796, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2636 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": -0.0326, "total": 0.3796, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49659 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.094276 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058884 } ], "others_margin": -0.082551 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.644114971160889, "model_output": 6.6441, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0624 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0448, "total": 6.6441, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062439 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01945 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012502 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011869 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01078 } ], "others_margin": -0.044749 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.2111, "total_shots": 0.6152, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.3762, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1467, "accurate_pass": 1.4831, "duels_won": 0.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3274, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4831, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4, "possession_lost": 2.0976, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.0488, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1557, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3852, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "tackles": 0.3852, "clearances": 0.2784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8683, "total_progression": 15.4724, "progressive_carries": 0.3852, "shots_off_target": 0.404 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goals": 0.1137, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.37, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goals": 0.1137, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0896, "after": 0.037 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0231 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4196, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "scorer_weight": 0.0434, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0476, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0226, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0185, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0347, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Ibrahim Diabaté": { "player_id": 1084043, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 185, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.1366, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0689, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4045, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4694, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3196, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081809, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.186, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1104, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4539, "combined_rank_score": 2590.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 883.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.54, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 4298.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6124, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ibrahim Diabaté", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Patrick Beach", "ranking": 4534 }, { "player_name": "Angus Gunn", "ranking": 4535 }, { "player_name": "Zakaria Eddahchouri", "ranking": 4536 }, { "player_name": "Willy Kambwala", "ranking": 4537 }, { "player_name": "Federico Carrizo", "ranking": 4538 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chuba Akpom", "ranking": 4540 }, { "player_name": "Dani Rodríguez", "ranking": 4541 }, { "player_name": "Alex Valera", "ranking": 4542 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Fernández", "ranking": 4543 }, { "player_name": "Ximo Navarro", "ranking": 4544 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 10, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9932, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (10 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1385, "goals": 0.1843, "goal_rate": 0.1843, "shots_on_target": 0.3451, "total_shots": 0.7552, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.2497, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 33.88, "total_pass": 6.9108, "accurate_pass": 4.5324, "duels_won": 2.8802, "total_long_balls": 0.5335, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3468, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2952, "possession_lost": 3.8509, "dispossessed": 0.2667, "duels_lost": 1.9459, "aerial_lost": 1.2197, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1927, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.5806, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3854, "clearances": 0.2667, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0241, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 3.6266, "total_progression": 4.2359, "progressive_carries": 0.5065, "shots_off_target": 0.4101 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1868, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1588, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1349, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1147, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0975, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0829, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0704, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0599, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0509, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0433, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 10.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.5748, "expectedGoals": 0.1811, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.4954, "accuratePass": 4.9651, "totalShots": 1.5107 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13851366937160492, "model_output": 0.1385, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0893 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": 0.0168, "total": 0.1385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.601968 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.07534 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052971 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.047318 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.036444 } ], "others_margin": 0.129662 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1843021661043167, "model_output": 0.1843, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 0.1843, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446291 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.100465 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.077462 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.054254 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.049342 } ], "others_margin": 0.066379 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.34510526061058044, "model_output": 0.3451, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2221 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0265, "total": 0.3451, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532852 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038781 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.033932 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032629 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.030286 } ], "others_margin": 0.079697 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7551767230033875, "model_output": 0.7552, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.0849, "total": 0.7552, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.61378 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.058899 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.025928 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.025825 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021069 } ], "others_margin": -0.084954 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.010559777729213238, "model_output": 0.0106, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 0.0106, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.442591 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.234166 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.181888 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.106198 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.096923 } ], "others_margin": -0.743426 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2496568262577057, "model_output": 0.2497, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2653 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0729, "total": 0.2497, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.500908 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.078345 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068178 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047799 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.041125 } ], "others_margin": -0.255851 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.612358570098877, "model_output": 6.6124, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0558 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.067, "total": 6.6124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055803 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018719 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013591 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012589 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012093 } ], "others_margin": -0.067028 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9932, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1376, "goals": 0.183, "goal_rate": 0.183, "shots_on_target": 0.3428, "total_shots": 0.7501, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "key_pass": 0.248, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 33.88, "total_pass": 6.8638, "accurate_pass": 4.5016, "duels_won": 2.8606, "total_long_balls": 0.5299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.324, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2116, "possession_lost": 3.8247, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1914, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4564, "fouls_drawn": 0.5767, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3828, "clearances": 0.2649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 3.6019, "total_progression": 4.2071, "progressive_carries": 0.5031, "shots_off_target": 0.4073 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9932, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 33.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goals": 0.1366, "goal_rate": 0.1366, "shots_on_target": 0.2559, "total_shots": 0.56, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0.1851, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3041, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 33.88, "minutes_scale": 0.7465, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goals": 0.1366, "goal_rate": 0.1366, "shots_on_target": 0.2559, "total_shots": 0.56, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0.1851, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3041, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.1366, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2559, "total_shots": 0.56, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0.1851, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3041, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.559, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.1366, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2559, "total_shots": 0.56, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "key_pass": 0.1851, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3041, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4539, "fifa_rank": 4298.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Carles Aleñá": { "player_id": 794937, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0235, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0901, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1123, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2212, "combined_rank_score": 1041.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7174, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carles Aleñá", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Darko Velkovski", "ranking": 2207 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Wieser", "ranking": 2208 }, { "player_name": "Zafar Sadullayev", "ranking": 2209 }, { "player_name": "Tyrell Malacia", "ranking": 2210 }, { "player_name": "Yeremay Hernández", "ranking": 2211 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Cestero", "ranking": 2213 }, { "player_name": "Wallace Yan", "ranking": 2214 }, { "player_name": "Behruz Uktamov", "ranking": 2215 }, { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Kenzhaev", "ranking": 2216 }, { "player_name": "Ravshanbek Yagudin", "ranking": 2217 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.692, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9977, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 6.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (40 historical appearances) to 13.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.69); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 6.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.425, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0575, "assist_rate": 0.0575, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "shots_on_target": 0.1406, "total_shots": 0.4728, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3258, "accurate_pass": 9.0704, "duels_won": 0.9854, "total_long_balls": 0.467, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3216, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2796, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "crosses_total": 1.4543, "crosses_accurate": 0.2959, "touches": 15.2867, "possession_lost": 3.5232, "dispossessed": 0.804, "duels_lost": 1.4241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2203, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2812, "tackles": 0.3531, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3506, "won_contest": 0.149, "challenges_lost": 0.0271, "fouls": 0.171, "fouls_drawn": 0.4833, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2971, "total_progression": 5.2545, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3322 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:52.292354+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4825, "creative_index": 0.2918, "expectedGoals": 0.0343, "expectedAssists": 0.0452, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0966 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4249560534954071, "model_output": 0.425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4584 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0057, "total": 0.425, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.720164 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.065952 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.054844 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.051233 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.033673 } ], "others_margin": 0.013474 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.045480646193027496, "model_output": 0.0455, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 0.0455, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.578704 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.158531 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.083626 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.078692 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.06436 } ], "others_margin": -0.114737 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.057486604899168015, "model_output": 0.0575, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0575, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.317499 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.127777 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.108637 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101915 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.093928 } ], "others_margin": -0.059061 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.038038454949855804, "model_output": 0.038, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.613972 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.180764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.117212 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.07101 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034276 } ], "others_margin": -0.12502 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.049080781638622284, "model_output": 0.0491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0491, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.495177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.163626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.084469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080044 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.071734 } ], "others_margin": -0.097847 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14060193300247192, "model_output": 0.1406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": 0.0001, "total": 0.1406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.572218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.240649 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.205277 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.143246 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034301 } ], "others_margin": 0.000463 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47275832295417786, "model_output": 0.4728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3994 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1982 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0778 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0208 } ], "others": -0.0579, "total": 0.4728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.399358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198221 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077768 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.034211 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.020797 } ], "others_margin": -0.057974 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717392444610596, "model_output": 6.7174, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0902 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 6.7174, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090249 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042356 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041863 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030682 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012024 } ], "others_margin": -0.003903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.424, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.0574, "assist_rate": 0.0574, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1403, "total_shots": 0.4717, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.451, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3314 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.424, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "assists": 0.0574, "assist_rate": 0.0574, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "total_shots": 0.4722, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3314 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0276, "after": 0.014 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0329, "after": 0.0239 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2212, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "scorer_weight": 0.0154, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3076, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3427, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0007, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2404, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0235, "finishing_factor": 1.1031, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0235, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "provider_weight": 0.0264, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0496, "creation_factor": 1.1049, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Miguel Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1014118, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0226, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4196, "combined_rank_score": 2227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6441, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 }, { "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking": 4195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 }, { "player_name": "Bartosz Slisz", "ranking": 4201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37070150421028, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.56230461382774, "market_value_adjustment": 0.991, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0765, "goal_rate": 0.0765, "shots_on_target": 0.213, "total_shots": 0.6207, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3796, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1662, "accurate_pass": 1.4966, "duels_won": 0.7775, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4966, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.449, "possession_lost": 2.1166, "dispossessed": 0.7775, "duels_lost": 1.0583, "aerial_lost": 0.2809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1662, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.3887, "clearances": 0.2809, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8853, "total_progression": 15.6129, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "shots_off_target": 0.4077 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 2.1662, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.4966, "accuratePass": 1.4966, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0602760910987854, "model_output": 0.0603, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0792 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.0603, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.512312 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.194851 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.112157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.058522 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.054944 } ], "others_margin": -0.254117 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07646875828504562, "model_output": 0.0765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0699 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0765, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.421303 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.183304 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.092811 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072725 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.067331 } ], "others_margin": -0.14061 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21304082870483398, "model_output": 0.213, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2121 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.501562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08859 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062695 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059538 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.043671 } ], "others_margin": -0.169665 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6207082271575928, "model_output": 0.6207, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1465 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.056 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0876, "total": 0.6207, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494977 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146469 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.055979 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.049311 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.030662 } ], "others_margin": -0.087692 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.026378242298960686, "model_output": 0.0264, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 0.0264, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.372947 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.257868 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.215234 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.129894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074594 } ], "others_margin": 0.160831 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37961122393608093, "model_output": 0.3796, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2636 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": -0.0326, "total": 0.3796, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49659 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.094276 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058884 } ], "others_margin": -0.082551 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.644114971160889, "model_output": 6.6441, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0624 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0448, "total": 6.6441, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062439 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01945 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012502 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011869 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01078 } ], "others_margin": -0.044749 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.2111, "total_shots": 0.6152, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "key_pass": 0.3762, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1467, "accurate_pass": 1.4831, "duels_won": 0.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3274, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4831, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4, "possession_lost": 2.0976, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.0488, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1557, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3852, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "tackles": 0.3852, "clearances": 0.2784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8683, "total_progression": 15.4724, "progressive_carries": 0.3852, "shots_off_target": 0.404 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goals": 0.1137, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.37, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goals": 0.1137, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.85 (squad xG sum 1.1554, xG scale 0.7348, xA scale 1.0488, team xA 0.55 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.849, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1554, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5262, "team_expected_assists": 0.5518, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7348, "xa_scale": 1.0488, "opponent_lambda": 0.859, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0896, "after": 0.037 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0231 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4196, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "scorer_weight": 0.0434, "squad_weight_total": 0.9123, "weight_share": 0.0476, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.1137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.9228, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.5643, "rating": 6.6441, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.426, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0358, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0226, "finishing_factor": 1.1726, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0185, "squad_weight_total": 0.5324, "weight_share": 0.0347, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.85, "expected_assists": 0.55, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 322, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hugo Burcio", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "xg_contribution": 0.0849, "xg_multiplier": 0.9894, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Burcio (LWB) is evenly matched against Ville Koski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Aleix Febas", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "xg_contribution": 0.0692, "xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aleix Febas (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Álvarez", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 7800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.496, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.1324, "xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Álvarez (SS) is evenly matched against Ville Koski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.132 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ferrán Jutglà", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.1884, "xg_multiplier": 0.9805, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferrán Jutglà (SS) is evenly matched against Ville Koski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.188 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iago Aspas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ville Koski", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.145, "xg_multiplier": 0.9395, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iago Aspas (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ville Koski and Nahuel Tenaglia in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.145 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jonny Otto", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.487, "duel_zone": "LWB vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.345, "xg_contribution": 0.0131, "xg_multiplier": 0.8902, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonny Otto (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Yoel Lago in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.013 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.0591, "xg_multiplier": 1.0866, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aleix Febas", "role": "CM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CM) is slightly favored against Aleix Febas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Denis Suárez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.0886, "xg_multiplier": 1.0244, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aleix Febas", "role": "CM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denis Suárez (CM) is evenly matched against Aleix Febas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.469, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "xg_contribution": 0.2833, "xg_multiplier": 0.9773, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 }, { "player": "Sebastián Cáceres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) is evenly matched against Yoel Lago and Sebastián Cáceres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.283 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Toni Martínez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.469, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.33, "xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Sebastián Cáceres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Toni Martínez (ST) is evenly matched against Yoel Lago and Sebastián Cáceres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.330 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.469, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0745, "xg_multiplier": 0.9174, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sebastián Cáceres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abderrahman Rebbach (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Yoel Lago and Sebastián Cáceres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.426, "away_midfield_power": 0.469, "home_creative_power": 0.383, "away_creative_power": 0.443, "home_defensive_power": 0.383, "away_defensive_power": 0.412, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.476, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Hugo Burcio", "Aleix Febas" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Denis Suárez", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Aleix Febas vs Antonio Blanco", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.992, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.01 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.859, "away_lambda": 0.849, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Hugo Burcio": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aleix Febas": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco", "Denis Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iago Aspas": { "opponents": [ "Ville Koski", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yoel Lago": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto", "Lucas Boyé", "Toni Martínez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sebastián Cáceres": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Toni Martínez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marcos Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Galán": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Álvaro Núñez": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ville Koski": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Burcio", "Hugo Álvarez", "Ferrán Jutglà", "Iago Aspas" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Iago Aspas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jonny Otto": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas", "Hugo Burcio" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denis Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Toni Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago", "Sebastián Cáceres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Aleix Febas vs Antonio Blanco will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9772, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.036, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0096, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9912, "home_midfield_factor": 0.992, "away_midfield_factor": 1.01, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4628, "away_avg_quality": 0.4571, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0057, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0464, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.096, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0728, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0091, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6199, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8024 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 0.796 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.796 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.9154 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8846, "result": 0.8098 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9975, "result": 0.8077 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0096, "result": 0.8155 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.036, "result": 0.8515 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8515, "result": 0.8515, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0091, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.8515, "result": 0.8515 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8515 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1389, "result": 0.9899 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3093, "result": 0.8347 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8347, "result": 0.835, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 0.835, "result": 0.8589, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.859 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.859 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.859, "result": 0.859, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.859 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8486, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9739 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.9837 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9837 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9837 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9113, "result": 0.8964 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9772, "result": 0.876 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9912, "result": 0.8684 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 0.8684 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8684, "result": 0.8684, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0091, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.8684, "result": 0.8684 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8684 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1729, "result": 1.0409 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3086, "result": 0.8739 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8739, "result": 0.874, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 0.874, "result": 0.849, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.849 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.849 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.849, "result": 0.849, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.849 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1389, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1729, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.859, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.849, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8347, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8739, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.859, "final_away_lambda": 0.849 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8846, "attack_index": 0.859, "defense_concede_index": 0.859, "form_multiplier": 0.987, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.33, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.37 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9113, "attack_index": 0.988, "defense_concede_index": 0.794, "form_multiplier": 1.013, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.53, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.23, "team_ppg": 1.37, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Celta vs Alavés. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-3 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.835, Away 0.874). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.859, Away 0.849 (most likely score 0-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.859, "away_lambda": 0.849, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.835, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.874 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T13:31:09Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }