{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Forest", "away_team": "Arsenal", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1098, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.061, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0978, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2334, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1098 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0978 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.097 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0876 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.061 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0552, "0-1": 0.097, "0-2": 0.0876, "0-3": 0.0523, "0-4": 0.0234, "0-5": 0.0084, "0-6": 0.0025, "0-7": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0602, "1-1": 0.1098, "1-2": 0.0978, "1-3": 0.0584, "1-4": 0.0262, "1-5": 0.0094, "1-6": 0.0028, "1-7": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.034, "2-1": 0.061, "2-2": 0.0546, "2-3": 0.0326, "2-4": 0.0146, "2-5": 0.0052, "2-6": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0127, "3-1": 0.0227, "3-2": 0.0203, "3-3": 0.0121, "3-4": 0.0054, "3-5": 0.002, "3-6": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0035, "4-1": 0.0063, "4-2": 0.0057, "4-3": 0.0034, "4-4": 0.0015, "4-5": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0014, "5-2": 0.0013, "5-3": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2355, "draw": 0.2334, "away_win": 0.5311 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5561, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4439, "btts_yes": 0.5613, "btts_no": 0.4387, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1666, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3273 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 6.86, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 7.13, "ATR": 7.09, "GK": 6.93 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Forest vs Arsenal. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Forest 2W-2D-6L vs Arsenal over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dan Ndoye, Kai Havertz", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.09, Away: 1.10. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 1.117, "away_lambda": 1.792, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1098, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2355, "draw": 0.2334, "away_win": 0.5311 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5311, "fair_spread": -0.675, "fair_total": 2.909, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.117, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.792, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5561, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5613, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1666, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3273, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Liam Delap (Forest)", "estimate": 0.2663, "probability": 0.2338, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kai Havertz (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.3998, "probability": 0.3295, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.1542, "probability": 0.1429, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.2031, "probability": 0.1838, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.909, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 873, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.9, "possession_home_pct": 48.2, "possession_away_pct": 51.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5311, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.68 goals and fair total 2.91.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Forest must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Arsenal chance creation leans on Kai Havertz against Murillo, Ousmane Diomande in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through Dan Ndoye; bench watchlist: Callum Hudson Odoi, Omari Hutchinson.", "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Kai Havertz; bench watchlist: Martín Zubimendi, Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke.", "Assist usage should flow through Morgan Gibbs-White, Martin Ødegaard; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.45 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Forest is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Forest wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Forest": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Liam Delap": { "player_id": 997087, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 186, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2663, "goal_rate": 0.3073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8169, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 8.972, "dispossessed": 1.2292, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1145, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9244, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.219, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2338, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0484, "finishing_factor": 0.9195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0614, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363869, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1346, "expected_assists": 0.2072, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6292, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0706, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2927, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3075, "combined_rank_score": 1043.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 651.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.74, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 1435.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8169, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 3070 }, { "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking": 3071 }, { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 }, { "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking": 3074 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 }, { "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking": 3077 }, { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 }, { "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking": 3080 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0102, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Nottingham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5602 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1815 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0919 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0844 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.062 } ], "others": 0.1685, "total": 2.144, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.560194 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.181468 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.09188 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.084446 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.061998 } ], "others_margin": 0.168435 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.113933086395264, "model_output": 7.1139, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { 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no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.878)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0475, "expected_assists": 0.1898, "assists": 0.1783, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "expected_goals": 0.2441, "goals": 0.2735, "goal_rate": 0.2735, "shots_on_target": 0.8373, "total_shots": 2.1691, "rating": 7.1139, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 36.4713, "accurate_pass": 29.785, "duels_won": 4.0304, "total_long_balls": 2.5363, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8326, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3045, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.216, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5689, "crosses_total": 3.8286, "crosses_accurate": 1.2597, "touches": 56.8285, "possession_lost": 15.7109, "dispossessed": 1.7378, "duels_lost": 5.3279, "aerial_won": 0.5532, "aerial_lost": 1.2724, "interceptions": 0.2081, "tackles_won": 0.3161, "tackles": 1.0112, "clearances": 0.3305, "total_contest": 2.5189, "won_contest": 1.2214, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 0.5925, "fouls_drawn": 1.2453, "blocks": 0.0516, "big_chances_created": 0.9645, "big_chances_missed": 0.3484, "xgot": 0.2542, "ball_carries": 17.4779, "total_progression": 76.4401, "progressive_carries": 2.6701, "shots_off_target": 1.3318 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 76000000, "quality_factor": 0.8781, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0475, "expected_assists": 0.1898, "assists": 0.1812, "assist_rate": 0.1812, "expected_goals": 0.2441, "goals": 0.2755, "goal_rate": 0.2755, "shots_on_target": 0.8342, "total_shots": 2.1674, "rating": 7.1139, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 36.4713, "accurate_pass": 29.785, "duels_won": 4.0304, "total_long_balls": 2.5363, "accurate_long_balls": 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"accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023972, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1963, "combined_rank_score": 758.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 84.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.54, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 1432.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9064, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dan Ndoye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bobomurod Bozorov", "ranking": 1958 }, { "player_name": "Zafar Hakimov", "ranking": 1959 }, { "player_name": "Jani Atanasov", "ranking": 1960 }, { "player_name": "Isi", "ranking": 1961 }, { "player_name": "Can Uzun", "ranking": 1962 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Bergvall", "ranking": 1964 }, { "player_name": "Matías Marín", "ranking": 1965 }, { "player_name": "Reno Piscopo", "ranking": 1966 }, { "player_name": "Lee Kang In", "ranking": 1967 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Tete", "ranking": 1968 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.764, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0103, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Nottingham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 126.0, "goals_per90": 0.7142857142857143, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.14, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 30 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Nottingham, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.7142857142857143, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3172, "goals": 0.3852, "goal_rate": 0.3852, "shots_on_target": 0.8856, "total_shots": 2.1311, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "key_pass": 0.911, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.4193, "accurate_pass": 9.6947, "duels_won": 3.341, "total_long_balls": 0.6559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2867, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4058, "crosses_total": 1.0923, "crosses_accurate": 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"opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 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{ "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.3852, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.32104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.170808 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.074077 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.063786 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.034055 } ], "others_margin": -0.025017 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8855836987495422, "model_output": 0.8856, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0354 } ], "others": -0.0405, "total": 0.8856, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.298791 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.086805 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.062517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.056829 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.038991 } ], "others_margin": -0.044893 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.1311280727386475, "model_output": 2.1311, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.0895, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.241614 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.123118 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096722 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.091722 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.059882 } ], "others_margin": -0.087849 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9110056161880493, "model_output": 0.911, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1915 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0348 } ], "others": 0.0719, "total": 0.911, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.250274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063133 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055981 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.046401 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.042382 } ], "others_margin": 0.082314 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.906354904174805, "model_output": 6.9064, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.0179, "total": 6.9064, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064594 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.015121 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.014524 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01433 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.012953 } ], "others_margin": 0.017833 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goals": 0.3891, "goal_rate": 0.3891, "shots_on_target": 0.8947, "total_shots": 2.1531, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4821, "crosses_total": 1.1036, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 27.5097, "possession_lost": 8.6429, "dispossessed": 1.078, "duels_lost": 4.3538, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 2.2658, "won_contest": 1.1454, "ball_recovery": 2.2499, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 1.0828, "fouls_drawn": 1.1622, "assists": 0.0085, "assist_rate": 0.0085, "interceptions": 0.246, "tackles_won": 0.3069, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.5083, "blocks": 0.0547, "big_chances_created": 0.232, "big_chances_missed": 0.8156, "xgot": 0.2926, "offsides": 0.4028, "ball_carries": 10.0367, "total_progression": 49.215, "progressive_carries": 3.4389, "shots_off_target": 1.2583 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goals": 0.3904, "goal_rate": 0.3904, "shots_on_target": 0.8916, "total_shots": 2.1485, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4821, "crosses_total": 1.094, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 27.5097, "possession_lost": 8.6429, "dispossessed": 1.078, "duels_lost": 4.3538, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 2.2658, "won_contest": 1.1454, "ball_recovery": 2.2499, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 1.0874, "fouls_drawn": 1.1615, "assists": 0.0084, "assist_rate": 0.0084, "interceptions": 0.2485, "tackles_won": 0.3042, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.5083, "blocks": 0.0547, "big_chances_created": 0.232, "big_chances_missed": 0.8156, "xgot": 0.2926, "offsides": 0.3993, "ball_carries": 10.0367, "total_progression": 49.215, "progressive_carries": 3.4389, "shots_off_target": 1.2583 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7557, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1036, "after": 1.094 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goals": 0.3904, "goal_rate": 0.3904, "shots_on_target": 0.8916, "total_shots": 2.1499, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4821, "crosses_total": 1.094, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 27.5097, "possession_lost": 8.6429, "dispossessed": 1.078, "duels_lost": 4.3538, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 2.2658, "won_contest": 1.1454, "ball_recovery": 2.2499, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 1.0874, "fouls_drawn": 1.1615, "assists": 0.0084, "assist_rate": 0.0084, "interceptions": 0.2485, "tackles_won": 0.3042, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.5083, "blocks": 0.0547, "big_chances_created": 0.232, "big_chances_missed": 0.8156, "xgot": 0.2926, "offsides": 0.3993, "ball_carries": 10.0367, "total_progression": 49.215, "progressive_carries": 3.4389, "shots_off_target": 1.2583 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2886, "goals": 0.3515, "goal_rate": 0.3515, "shots_on_target": 0.8028, "total_shots": 1.9358, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4821, "crosses_total": 1.094, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 27.5097, "possession_lost": 8.6429, "dispossessed": 1.078, "duels_lost": 4.3538, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 2.2658, "won_contest": 1.1454, "ball_recovery": 2.2499, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 1.0874, "fouls_drawn": 1.1615, "assists": 0.0084, "assist_rate": 0.0084, "interceptions": 0.2485, "tackles_won": 0.3042, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.5083, "blocks": 0.0547, "big_chances_created": 0.232, "big_chances_missed": 0.7344, "xgot": 0.2635, "offsides": 0.3993, "ball_carries": 10.0367, "total_progression": 49.215, "progressive_carries": 3.4389, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9004, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.202, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — 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"expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2926, "after": 0.2635 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2886, "goal_rate": 0.3515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8028, "total_shots": 1.9358, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4821, "crosses_total": 1.094, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 27.5097, "possession_lost": 8.6429, "dispossessed": 1.078, "duels_lost": 4.3538, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 2.2658, "won_contest": 1.1454, "ball_recovery": 2.2499, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 1.0874, "fouls_drawn": 1.1615, "assist_rate": 0.0084, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2485, "tackles_won": 0.3042, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.5083, "blocks": 0.0547, "big_chances_created": 0.232, "big_chances_missed": 0.7344, "xgot": 0.2635, "offsides": 0.3993, "ball_carries": 10.0367, "total_progression": 49.215, "progressive_carries": 3.4389, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9004, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.202, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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0.6705, "clearances": 0.5083, "blocks": 0.0547, "big_chances_created": 0.232, "big_chances_missed": 0.7344, "xgot": 0.2071, "offsides": 0.3993, "ball_carries": 10.0367, "total_progression": 49.215, "progressive_carries": 3.4389, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9004, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.202, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães, Riccardo Calafiori", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1858, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2886, "after": 0.2269 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0904, "after": 0.0734 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2269, "goal_rate": 0.3515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8028, "total_shots": 1.9358, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4821, "crosses_total": 1.094, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 27.5097, "possession_lost": 8.6429, "dispossessed": 1.078, "duels_lost": 4.3538, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 2.2658, "won_contest": 1.1454, "ball_recovery": 2.2499, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 1.0874, "fouls_drawn": 1.1615, "assist_rate": 0.0084, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2485, "tackles_won": 0.3042, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.5083, "blocks": 0.0547, "big_chances_created": 0.232, "big_chances_missed": 0.7344, 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"fifa_rank": 1432.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2269, "goal_rate": 0.3515, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8028, "total_shots": 1.9358, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4821, "crosses_total": 1.094, "crosses_accurate": 0.129, "touches": 27.5097, "possession_lost": 8.6429, "dispossessed": 1.078, "duels_lost": 4.3538, "aerial_lost": 0.5094, "total_contest": 2.2658, "won_contest": 1.1454, "ball_recovery": 2.2499, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 1.0874, "fouls_drawn": 1.1615, 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true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.203, "goal_rate": 0.3515, "scorer_weight": 0.2691, "squad_weight_total": 1.1226, "weight_share": 0.2397, "finishing_factor": 1.1858, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.2691, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2691, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2449 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2269, "goal_rate": 0.3515, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8028, "total_shots": 1.9358, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 0.9204, "rating": 6.9064, "minutes": 68.01, "total_pass": 12.5472, "accurate_pass": 9.7946, "duels_won": 3.3754, "total_long_balls": 0.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, 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true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ezri Konsa", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.941, "skill_edge": -0.0721, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.7176, "defender_skill": 0.8778, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ezri Konsa", "market_value": 53000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8778 } ], "xg_override": 0.0368 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.1402, "after": 1.3 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5591, "after": 0.5261 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.401, "after": 0.3773 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1552, "after": 0.146 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6273, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "assist_rate": 0.047, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0444, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.146, "total_shots": 0.5261, "rating": 6.9303, "minutes": 81.07, "total_pass": 37.881, "accurate_pass": 31.7602, "duels_won": 3.994, "total_long_balls": 3.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.828, "total_own_half_passes": 19.1374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6287, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7436, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1315, "crosses_total": 0.1285, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.4587, "possession_lost": 8.2266, "dispossessed": 0.432, "duels_lost": 4.697, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.6941, "interceptions": 1.0579, "tackles_won": 0.8296, "tackles": 1.6991, "clearances": 1.4864, "total_contest": 1.0102, "won_contest": 0.4087, "challenges_lost": 1.0706, "fouls": 1.901, "fouls_drawn": 0.7884, "blocks": 1.3221, "big_chances_created": 0.0591, 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"2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0692, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0589, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.05, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0425, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0361, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.326, "creative_index": 0.7086, "expectedGoals": 0.0575, "expectedAssists": 0.1192, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3412 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.338295817375183, "model_output": 1.3383, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": 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0.123366 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.122427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064797 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045688 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.029696 } ], "others_margin": -0.106837 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09297367185354233, "model_output": 0.093, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.093, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.168562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.088352 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046851 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.04629 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038543 } ], "others_margin": -0.175721 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.34873342514038086, "model_output": 0.3487, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0418, "total": 0.3487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.171908 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134571 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.097789 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045882 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018526 } ], "others_margin": -0.113094 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2279691696166992, "model_output": 1.228, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2425 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1393 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0296 } ], "others": -0.0372, "total": 1.228, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.242512 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139259 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.044104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.029598 } ], "others_margin": -0.037211 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8802032470703125, "model_output": 6.8802, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0083, "total": 6.8802, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031461 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022785 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01213 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011225 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009198 } ], "others_margin": 0.008369 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.629)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3482, "expected_assists": 0.133, "assists": 0.0997, "assist_rate": 0.0997, "expected_goals": 0.0845, "goals": 0.0937, "goal_rate": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.3513, "total_shots": 1.2371, "rating": 6.8802, "minutes": 84.42, "total_pass": 42.5235, "accurate_pass": 34.1606, "duels_won": 3.6082, "total_long_balls": 4.9805, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4605, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0247, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.136, "crosses_total": 3.2691, "crosses_accurate": 1.2569, "touches": 59.4928, "possession_lost": 13.5889, "dispossessed": 1.0837, "duels_lost": 4.2114, "aerial_won": 0.6209, "aerial_lost": 0.5593, "interceptions": 0.9298, "tackles_won": 1.2766, "tackles": 1.355, "clearances": 1.2512, "total_contest": 0.7934, "won_contest": 0.3025, "challenges_lost": 1.0506, "fouls": 1.027, "fouls_drawn": 1.3298, "blocks": 0.0784, "big_chances_created": 0.2597, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0192, "ball_carries": 14.1449, "total_progression": 60.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.0607, "shots_off_target": 0.8857 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19800000, "quality_factor": 0.6291, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0156)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3482, "expected_assists": 0.133, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.0845, "goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.3458, "total_shots": 1.2178, "rating": 6.8802, "minutes": 84.42, "total_pass": 42.5235, "accurate_pass": 34.1606, "duels_won": 3.6082, "total_long_balls": 4.9805, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4605, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3085 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1534 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0535 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.027 } ], "others": -0.0592, "total": 1.387, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.308541 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153403 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.053541 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03775 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026992 } ], "others_margin": -0.059305 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.847752571105957, "model_output": 6.8478, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "assists": 0.0847, "assist_rate": 0.0847, "expected_goals": 0.15, "goals": 0.1534, "goal_rate": 0.1534, "shots_on_target": 0.4599, "total_shots": 1.3952, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7313, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 2.163, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5503, "tackles_won": 1.4237, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3204, "fouls_drawn": 0.3931, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.1183, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.9352 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0059, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0033)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "assists": 0.0844, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "expected_goals": 0.15, "goals": 0.1529, "goal_rate": 0.1529, "shots_on_target": 0.4632, "total_shots": 1.4002, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 2.163, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.1183, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.9352 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0033, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8721, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7313, "after": 1.7255 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "assists": 0.0844, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "expected_goals": 0.15, "goals": 0.1529, "goal_rate": 0.1529, "shots_on_target": 0.4632, "total_shots": 1.4002, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 2.163, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.1183, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.9352 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "assists": 0.0844, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "shots_on_target": 0.4024, "total_shots": 1.2165, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4085, "xgot": 0.1028, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.8125, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "skill_edge": -0.0933, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.6821, "defender_skill": 0.8893, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 } ], "xg_override": 0.1303 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 2.163, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4002, "after": 1.2165 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9352, "after": 0.8125 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4702, "after": 0.4085 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4632, "after": 0.4024 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1529, "after": 0.1328 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.15, "after": 0.1303 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1183, "after": 0.1028 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4024, "total_shots": 1.2165, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4085, "xgot": 0.1028, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.8125, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4024, "total_shots": 1.2165, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4085, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.8125, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0139, "creation_factor": 0.9897 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1303, "after": 0.1024 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0858, "after": 0.0697 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4024, "total_shots": 1.2165, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4085, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.8125, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0139, "creation_factor": 0.9897, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 604, "fifa_rank": 376.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4024, "total_shots": 1.2165, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4085, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.8125, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0973, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0139, "creation_factor": 0.9897, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "scorer_weight": 0.1038, "squad_weight_total": 1.1226, "weight_share": 0.0925, "finishing_factor": 1.0139, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.2691, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2691, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2449 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4024, "total_shots": 1.2165, "rating": 6.8478, "minutes": 78.49, "total_pass": 32.3641, "accurate_pass": 26.7485, "duels_won": 5.0032, "total_long_balls": 1.802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7499, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9986, "crosses_total": 1.7255, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 51.6127, "possession_lost": 9.2577, "dispossessed": 0.0912, "duels_lost": 5.3284, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 2.3821, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 1.4238, "tackles": 2.4112, "clearances": 2.9265, "total_contest": 0.9953, "won_contest": 0.0359, "challenges_lost": 0.6575, "fouls": 1.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.3918, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.4405, "big_chances_missed": 0.4085, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 7.7109, "total_progression": 20.0878, "progressive_carries": 0.5027, "shots_off_target": 0.8125, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs 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"aerialWon", "contribution": 0.057 } ], "others": -0.1727, "total": 1.54, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108902 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.076232 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.0493 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048174 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.033833 } ], "others_margin": -0.10618 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2709845304489136, "model_output": 1.271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4857 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0712 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0709 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": 0.1265, "total": 1.271, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.485675 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.071201 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.070887 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.02207 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020118 } ], "others_margin": 0.126533 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.886884689331055, "model_output": 6.8869, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0185, "total": 6.8869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.03741 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032175 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014421 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.011885 } ], "others_margin": 0.018445 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0131, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2225, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1315, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.2877, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0298, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4394, "fouls_drawn": 0.254, "blocks": 0.6097, "goals": 0.005, "goal_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0.1105, "assist_rate": 0.1105, "expected_goals": 0.0952, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.3318, "big_chances_created": 0.0048, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 14.445, "total_progression": 58.0223, "progressive_carries": 0.6818, "key_pass": 0.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.9559 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0131, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2136, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.278, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.2568, "blocks": 0.6097, "goals": 0.0049, "goal_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0.1092, "assist_rate": 0.1092, "expected_goals": 0.0952, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.3278, "big_chances_created": 0.0048, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 14.445, "total_progression": 58.0223, "progressive_carries": 0.6818, "key_pass": 0.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.9559 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9684, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4394, "after": 1.4279 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2877, "after": 1.278 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2225, "after": 1.2136 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1315, "after": 1.1237 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2136, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.2837, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.2568, "blocks": 0.6097, "goals": 0.0049, "goal_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0.1092, "assist_rate": 0.1092, "expected_goals": 0.0952, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.3278, "big_chances_created": 0.0048, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 14.445, "total_progression": 58.0223, "progressive_carries": 0.6818, "key_pass": 0.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.9559 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2136, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.2837, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.2568, "blocks": 0.6097, "goals": 0.0049, "goal_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0.1092, "assist_rate": 0.1092, "expected_goals": 0.0952, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.3278, "big_chances_created": 0.0048, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 14.445, "total_progression": 58.0223, "progressive_carries": 0.6818, "key_pass": 0.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.9559, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2136, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.2837, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.2568, "blocks": 0.6097, "goal_rate": 0.0049, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0952, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.3278, "big_chances_created": 0.0048, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 14.445, "total_progression": 58.0223, "progressive_carries": 0.6818, "key_pass": 0.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.9559, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2136, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.2837, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.2568, "blocks": 0.6097, "goal_rate": 0.0049, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "shots_on_target": 0.3278, "big_chances_created": 0.0048, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 14.445, "total_progression": 58.0223, "progressive_carries": 0.6818, "key_pass": 0.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.9559, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0952, "after": 0.0748 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0361, "after": 0.0293 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2136, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.2837, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.2568, "blocks": 0.6097, "goal_rate": 0.0049, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "shots_on_target": 0.3278, "big_chances_created": 0.0048, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 14.445, "total_progression": 58.0223, "progressive_carries": 0.6818, "key_pass": 0.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.9559, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 791, "fifa_rank": 390.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2136, "tackles": 1.7368, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "clearances": 5.2076, "aerial_won": 1.5602, "total_shots": 1.2837, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 49.4396, "accurate_pass": 42.1594, "duels_won": 4.0862, "total_long_balls": 7.407, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9309, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4782, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6812, "crosses_total": 0.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.673, "possession_lost": 9.138, "dispossessed": 0.4513, "duels_lost": 4.0862, "aerial_lost": 1.2071, "total_contest": 1.1103, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.9976, "challenges_lost": 0.5043, "fouls": 1.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.2568, "blocks": 0.6097, "goal_rate": 0.0049, "goals": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9217, "tackles": 1.1321, "tackles_won": 0.6068, "clearances": 5.7664, "aerial_won": 2.7313, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.8304, "minutes": 86.63, "total_pass": 48.7557, "accurate_pass": 44.464, "duels_won": 4.8473, "total_long_balls": 4.0673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7326, "total_own_half_passes": 33.499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0019, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4622, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.7985, "possession_lost": 4.5863, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5955, "aerial_lost": 2.5583, "total_contest": 0.2947, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.9814, "challenges_lost": 0.2947, "fouls": 1.4479, "fouls_drawn": 0.2947, "blocks": 1.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0789, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.9361, "total_progression": 52.5073, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.552, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9217, "tackles": 1.1321, "tackles_won": 0.6068, "clearances": 5.7664, "aerial_won": 2.7313, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.8304, "minutes": 86.63, "total_pass": 48.7557, "accurate_pass": 44.464, "duels_won": 4.8473, "total_long_balls": 4.0673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7326, "total_own_half_passes": 33.499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0019, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4622, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.7985, "possession_lost": 4.5863, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5955, "aerial_lost": 2.5583, "total_contest": 0.2947, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.9814, "challenges_lost": 0.2947, "fouls": 1.4479, "fouls_drawn": 0.2947, "blocks": 1.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.062, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.9361, "total_progression": 52.5073, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.552, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8591 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0789, "after": 0.062 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0601, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0496, "squad_weight_total": 1.1226, "weight_share": 0.0442, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.2691, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2691, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2449 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9217, "tackles": 1.1321, "tackles_won": 0.6068, "clearances": 5.7664, "aerial_won": 2.7313, "total_shots": 0.552, "rating": 6.8304, "minutes": 86.63, "total_pass": 48.7557, "accurate_pass": 44.464, "duels_won": 4.8473, "total_long_balls": 4.0673, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7326, "total_own_half_passes": 33.499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0019, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2567, 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"ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2047, "combined_rank_score": 783.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 784.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7585, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jair", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jamie Leweling", "ranking": 2042 }, { "player_name": "Bento", "ranking": 2043 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Mosquera", "ranking": 2044 }, { "player_name": "Otávio", "ranking": 2045 }, { 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0.122076 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050442 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.027966 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.021235 } ], "others_margin": 0.04831 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4979591369628906, "model_output": 1.498, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1518 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1439 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0989 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0915 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": -0.0382, "total": 1.498, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104585 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.098834 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.068935 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05982 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.025346 } ], "others_margin": -0.025191 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4707375466823578, "model_output": 0.4707, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0584 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 0.4707, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058374 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.014146 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011681 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009901 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.006951 } ], "others_margin": -0.019458 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.758500576019287, "model_output": 6.7585, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.001, "total": 6.7585, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016808 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011178 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.009378 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.009344 } ], "others_margin": -0.001031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8273, "tackles": 1.6249, "tackles_won": 0.9461, "clearances": 5.1984, "aerial_won": 1.5206, "total_shots": 0.4779, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 33.3257, "accurate_pass": 27.1112, "duels_won": 4.1775, "total_long_balls": 4.5314, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.9684, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5807, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1428, "crosses_total": 0.6405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.6456, "possession_lost": 8.0857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5476, "aerial_lost": 1.2425, "total_contest": 0.4276, "won_contest": 0.1429, "ball_recovery": 2.1739, "challenges_lost": 1.0576, "fouls": 0.9628, "fouls_drawn": 1.1465, "blocks": 0.2768, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "shots_on_target": 0.0842, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 8.516, "total_progression": 30.6952, "progressive_carries": 0.2864, "key_pass": 0.1896, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8273, "tackles": 1.6249, "tackles_won": 0.9461, "clearances": 5.1984, "aerial_won": 1.5206, "total_shots": 0.4779, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 33.3257, "accurate_pass": 27.1112, "duels_won": 4.1775, "total_long_balls": 4.5314, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.9684, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5807, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1428, "crosses_total": 0.6405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.6456, "possession_lost": 8.0857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5476, "aerial_lost": 1.2425, "total_contest": 0.4276, "won_contest": 0.1429, "ball_recovery": 2.1739, "challenges_lost": 1.0576, "fouls": 0.9628, "fouls_drawn": 1.1465, "blocks": 0.2768, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "shots_on_target": 0.0842, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 8.516, "total_progression": 30.6952, "progressive_carries": 0.2864, "key_pass": 0.1896, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8993 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8273, "tackles": 1.6249, "tackles_won": 0.9461, "clearances": 5.1984, "aerial_won": 1.5206, "total_shots": 0.4779, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 33.3257, "accurate_pass": 27.1112, "duels_won": 4.1775, "total_long_balls": 4.5314, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.9684, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5807, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1428, "crosses_total": 0.6405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.6456, "possession_lost": 8.0857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5476, "aerial_lost": 1.2425, "total_contest": 0.4276, "won_contest": 0.1429, "ball_recovery": 2.1739, "challenges_lost": 1.0576, "fouls": 0.9628, "fouls_drawn": 1.1465, "blocks": 0.2768, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "shots_on_target": 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Sels": { "player_id": 78152, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 188, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 34, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7419, "shots_faced": 17.0, "expected_saves": 4.16, "high_pressure_saves": 1.43, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1266, "combined_rank_score": 550.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 604.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7806, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 497.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9966, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matz Sels", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Valdés", "ranking": 1261 }, { "player_name": "Noh Dong-geon", "ranking": 1262 }, { "player_name": "Denilson", "ranking": 1263 }, { "player_name": "Séamus Coleman", "ranking": 1264 }, { "player_name": "Castello Lukeba", "ranking": 1265 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nathan Aké", "ranking": 1267 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Raskin", "ranking": 1268 }, { "player_name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0068, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0587, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0103)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9963, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0581, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0103, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9956, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.0068, "after": 2.9963 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9963, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0581, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9963, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0581, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7419, "shots_faced": 16.5, "expected_saves": 4.03, "high_pressure_saves": 1.39, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.7419 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9963, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0581, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7419, "shots_faced": 16.5, "expected_saves": 4.03, "high_pressure_saves": 1.39, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9963, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0581, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7419, "shots_faced": 17.0, "expected_saves": 4.16, "high_pressure_saves": 1.43, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 16.5, "after": 17.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.03, "after": 4.16 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.39, "after": 1.43 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9963, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0581, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7419, "shots_faced": 17.0, "expected_saves": 4.16, "high_pressure_saves": 1.43, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, "total_contest": 0.0666, "won_contest": 0.0666, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0581, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5967, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7419, "shots_faced": 17.0, "expected_saves": 4.16, "high_pressure_saves": 1.43, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.1226, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.2691, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2691, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2449 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9963, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 6.9966, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 25.0971, "accurate_pass": 14.5205, "total_long_balls": 15.3491, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8639, "touches": 34.1958, "clearances": 0.963, "ball_recovery": 7.5813, "high_claims": 0.2054, "punches": 0.5865, "aerial_won": 0.2917, "sweeper_actions": 0.7707, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7707, "saves_inside_box": 2.1716, "possession_lost": 10.8183, "duels_won": 0.4206, "duels_lost": 0.1492, 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"effective_weight": 0.1487, "runner_up": "Neco Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0986, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dan Ndoye" ] } ] } } ] }, "Neco Williams": { "player_id": 927356, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 183, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7747, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 15.4391, "dispossessed": 0.4426, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0291, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0438, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0677, "expected_assists": 0.1233, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0655, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.116, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1749, "expected_assists": 0.2947, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363869, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0854, "expected_assists": 0.2144, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1951, "expected_assists": 0.1606, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1242, "expected_assists": 0.1549, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.103, "total": 1.1687, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.418974 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.071011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038989 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.031852 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.030328 } ], "others_margin": 0.10303 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774745464324951, "model_output": 6.7747, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 6.7747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034085 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02399 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014868 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.013215 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011073 } ], "others_margin": -0.028876 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.953, "tackles": 2.0069, "tackles_won": 1.374, "clearances": 2.4927, "aerial_won": 0.6975, "total_shots": 1.1762, "rating": 6.7747, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 37.3964, "accurate_pass": 30.0148, "duels_won": 4.7728, "total_long_balls": 5.1077, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7693, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2455, "crosses_total": 5.7284, "crosses_accurate": 1.9078, "touches": 64.8016, "possession_lost": 15.4391, "dispossessed": 0.4426, "duels_lost": 3.943, "aerial_lost": 1.0348, "total_contest": 1.3415, "won_contest": 0.3614, "ball_recovery": 4.7519, "challenges_lost": 0.7394, "fouls": 0.8573, "fouls_drawn": 1.3716, "blocks": 0.43, "goals": 0.0294, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9934, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6571, "goals_prevented": 0.0885, "rating": 7.0598, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.7026, "accurate_pass": 15.5498, "total_long_balls": 14.5985, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4457, "touches": 28.8434, "clearances": 0.7752, "ball_recovery": 5.0078, "high_claims": 0.4031, "punches": 0.7103, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 1.4499, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9128, "saves_inside_box": 1.4573, "possession_lost": 9.5723, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2815 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9934, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4182, "goals_prevented": 0.0139, "rating": 7.0598, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 3.8877, "accurate_pass": 2.4472, "total_long_balls": 2.2975, "accurate_long_balls": 0.857, "touches": 4.5394, "clearances": 0.122, "ball_recovery": 0.7881, "high_claims": 0.0634, "punches": 0.1118, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.2282, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1437, "saves_inside_box": 0.2294, "possession_lost": 1.5065, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.49, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1574, "appearance_probability": 0.113 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4182, "goals_prevented": 0.0139, "rating": 7.0598, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 3.8877, "accurate_pass": 2.4472, "total_long_balls": 2.2975, "accurate_long_balls": 0.857, "touches": 4.5394, "clearances": 0.122, "ball_recovery": 0.7881, "high_claims": 0.0634, "punches": 0.1118, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.2282, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1437, "saves_inside_box": 0.2294, "possession_lost": 1.5065, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4182, "goals_prevented": 0.0139, "rating": 7.0598, "minutes": 4.49, "total_pass": 3.8877, "accurate_pass": 2.4472, "total_long_balls": 2.2975, "accurate_long_balls": 0.857, "touches": 4.5394, "clearances": 0.122, "ball_recovery": 0.7881, "high_claims": 0.0634, "punches": 0.1118, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.2282, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1437, "saves_inside_box": 0.2294, "possession_lost": 1.5065, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7755, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.113, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.113, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": 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"base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2146 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0505, "total": 0.2164, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.214649 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017563 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.014303 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013809 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011097 } ], "others_margin": -0.050379 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.794478416442871, "model_output": 6.7945, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles": 0.5346, "tackles_won": 0.2817, "clearances": 2.1873, "aerial_won": 1.1646, "total_shots": 0.2177, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 27.0, "total_pass": 36.8829, "accurate_pass": 31.0234, "duels_won": 4.4302, "total_long_balls": 5.4117, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0956, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5778, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2798, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7435, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.4986, "possession_lost": 6.3817, "dispossessed": 0.2372, "duels_lost": 2.6021, "aerial_lost": 0.8225, "total_contest": 0.1466, "won_contest": 0.1466, "ball_recovery": 3.3352, "challenges_lost": 0.4422, "fouls": 1.1051, "fouls_drawn": 0.447, "blocks": 1.1674, "goals": 0.0, 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.082, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1443, "combined_rank_score": 596.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", 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"fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.193175864797896, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.23, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0048, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Nottingham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (23 historical appearances) to 14.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles": 0.7207, "tackles_won": 0.4134, "clearances": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4889, "total_shots": 0.273, "rating": 6.7476, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.5678, "accurate_pass": 27.3604, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.1113, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6857, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0538, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6387, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7216, "crosses_total": 1.7358, "crosses_accurate": 0.3152, "touches": 59.0169, "possession_lost": 14.5234, "dispossessed": 0.888, "duels_lost": 4.0117, "aerial_lost": 0.8126, "total_contest": 1.6324, "won_contest": 0.958, "ball_recovery": 3.8067, "challenges_lost": 0.7952, "fouls": 0.8833, "fouls_drawn": 1.3166, "blocks": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0165, "expected_assists": 0.068, "shots_on_target": 0.0872, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.4526, "total_progression": 38.8576, "progressive_carries": 0.8412, "key_pass": 0.5521, "shots_off_target": 0.1858 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:05:03.872029+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.4851, "aerialWon": 1.2685, "totalClearance_p90": 3.6689, "totalTackle": 2.3916, "defensive_actions": 3.4821 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.47201618552207947, "model_output": 0.472, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4706 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": 0.0078, "total": 0.472, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.791206 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.078521 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.03478 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030652 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.029434 } ], "others_margin": 0.016884 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7207037806510925, "model_output": 0.7207, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8146 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.02 } ], "others": 0.0415, "total": 0.7207, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.880472 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.051098 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.047599 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.034655 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.029843 } ], "others_margin": 0.059363 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4134346544742584, "model_output": 0.4134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5082 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0255, "total": 0.4134, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.903677 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.0567 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.056468 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.032694 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.031647 } ], "others_margin": 0.063836 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.1923446655273438, "model_output": 1.1923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.024 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0613 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0468 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 1.1923, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.89068 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.044459 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043514 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.042258 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.038544 } ], "others_margin": 0.002021 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4889252483844757, "model_output": 0.4889, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7321 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0635, "total": 0.4889, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.758374 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.048147 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.041021 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.034448 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.031708 } ], "others_margin": -0.121981 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2729646861553192, "model_output": 0.273, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2539 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.273, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.253906 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.035956 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.01545 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007776 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.007528 } ], "others_margin": 0.001211 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747613430023193, "model_output": 6.7476, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 6.7476, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017931 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.013948 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012376 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009725 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009543 } ], "others_margin": 0.001683 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0048, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4743, "tackles": 0.7242, "tackles_won": 0.4154, "clearances": 1.1981, "aerial_won": 0.4913, "total_shots": 0.2743, "rating": 6.7476, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.7337, "accurate_pass": 27.4917, "duels_won": 5.9589, "total_long_balls": 4.131, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.709, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7827, "crosses_total": 1.7441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3167, "touches": 59.3002, "possession_lost": 14.5931, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 4.031, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.6402, "won_contest": 0.9626, "ball_recovery": 3.825, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.8875, "fouls_drawn": 1.3229, "blocks": 0.057, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.0876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.5076, "total_progression": 39.0441, "progressive_carries": 0.8452, "key_pass": 0.5548, "shots_off_target": 0.1867 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0048, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0139)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4692, "tackles": 0.7242, "tackles_won": 0.4112, "clearances": 1.1981, "aerial_won": 0.4913, "total_shots": 0.2737, "rating": 6.7476, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.7337, "accurate_pass": 27.4917, "duels_won": 5.9589, "total_long_balls": 4.131, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.709, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7827, "crosses_total": 1.7291, "crosses_accurate": 0.3167, "touches": 59.3002, "possession_lost": 14.5931, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 4.031, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.6402, "won_contest": 0.9626, "ball_recovery": 3.825, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.8798, "fouls_drawn": 1.3076, "blocks": 0.057, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.5076, "total_progression": 39.0441, "progressive_carries": 0.8452, "key_pass": 0.5548, "shots_off_target": 0.1867 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3229, "after": 1.3076 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7441, "after": 1.7291 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8875, "after": 0.8798 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4743, "after": 0.4692 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles": 0.571, "tackles_won": 0.3242, "clearances": 0.9447, "aerial_won": 0.3874, "total_shots": 0.2166, "rating": 6.7476, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 27.3879, "accurate_pass": 21.6775, "duels_won": 4.6987, "total_long_balls": 3.2573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3356, "total_own_half_passes": 14.304, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5982, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0793, "crosses_total": 1.3634, "crosses_accurate": 0.2497, "touches": 46.7588, "possession_lost": 11.5068, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 3.1785, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.2933, "won_contest": 0.759, "ball_recovery": 3.016, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.6937, "fouls_drawn": 1.0311, "blocks": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 9.0739, "total_progression": 30.7867, "progressive_carries": 0.6664, "key_pass": 0.4375, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.19, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7885, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles": 0.571, "tackles_won": 0.3242, "clearances": 0.9447, "aerial_won": 0.3874, "total_shots": 0.2166, "rating": 6.7476, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 27.3879, "accurate_pass": 21.6775, "duels_won": 4.6987, "total_long_balls": 3.2573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3356, "total_own_half_passes": 14.304, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5982, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0793, "crosses_total": 1.3634, "crosses_accurate": 0.2497, "touches": 46.7588, "possession_lost": 11.5068, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 3.1785, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.2933, "won_contest": 0.759, "ball_recovery": 3.016, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.6937, "fouls_drawn": 1.0311, "blocks": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 9.0739, "total_progression": 30.7867, "progressive_carries": 0.6664, "key_pass": 0.4375, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": 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"model_output": 0.3936, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4391 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2039 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.056 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.3936, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.439102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.203919 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055992 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032164 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.022414 } ], "others_margin": -0.005117 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.73408317565918, "model_output": 6.7341, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0762 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0086 } ], "others": 0.0095, "total": 6.7341, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028548 }, { "name": "rating", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7981, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0.1117, "assist_rate": 0.1117, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.1572, "total_shots": 0.3969, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 25.83, "total_pass": 8.4469, "accurate_pass": 6.9003, "duels_won": 1.8721, "total_long_balls": 0.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.656, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2444, "crosses_total": 3.3191, "crosses_accurate": 0.9088, "touches": 18.7407, "possession_lost": 6.0449, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.3201, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.088, "tackles_won": 0.2041, "tackles": 0.3556, "clearances": 0.2181, "total_contest": 1.4219, "won_contest": 0.933, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2993, "fouls_drawn": 0.5835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.0774, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 7.4698, "total_progression": 50.9648, "progressive_carries": 1.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.2396 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.8 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "assists": 0.0996, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.02, "projection_minutes": 25.83, "minutes_scale": 0.8912, "appearance_probability": 0.546 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "assists": 0.0996, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1108, "creation_factor": 1.0411 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.546 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0111 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.0416 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1533 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0418, "total": 0.1132, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.635881 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.187787 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.115352 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.113968 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.064421 } ], "others_margin": -0.31472 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.42712679505348206, "model_output": 0.4271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4805 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2719 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0352 } ], "others": -0.2266, "total": 0.4271, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480527 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.271871 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053855 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.044149 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.035242 } ], "others_margin": -0.226505 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7954421043396, "model_output": 6.7954, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0938 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0862 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0736, "total": 6.7954, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.093794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086199 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.032562 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013385 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.010931 } ], "others_margin": -0.073455 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4381, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.034, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0478, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1206, "total_shots": 0.4637, "rating": 6.7954, "minutes": 19.47, "total_pass": 39.4952, "accurate_pass": 33.8307, "duels_won": 5.2896, "total_long_balls": 4.0387, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7788, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3856, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7676, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4451, "crosses_total": 0.1182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2039, "possession_lost": 7.9986, "dispossessed": 0.7115, "duels_lost": 3.7025, "aerial_won": 0.7454, "aerial_lost": 0.276, "interceptions": 1.128, "tackles_won": 1.927, "tackles": 2.9177, "clearances": 1.1454, "total_contest": 1.0367, "won_contest": 1.0367, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4381, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.034, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0478, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1206, "total_shots": 0.4637, "rating": 6.7954, "minutes": 19.47, "total_pass": 39.4952, "accurate_pass": 33.8307, "duels_won": 5.2896, "total_long_balls": 4.0387, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7788, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3856, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7676, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4451, "crosses_total": 0.1182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.2039, "possession_lost": 7.9986, "dispossessed": 0.7115, "duels_lost": 3.7025, "aerial_won": 0.7454, "aerial_lost": 0.276, "interceptions": 1.128, "tackles_won": 1.927, "tackles": 2.9177, "clearances": 1.1454, "total_contest": 1.0367, "won_contest": 1.0367, "challenges_lost": 1.4857, "fouls": 1.0031, "fouls_drawn": 0.5802, "blocks": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0311 } ], "others": 0.0396, "total": 0.4979, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52487 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.117563 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.114258 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073021 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.070231 } ], "others_margin": 0.083096 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.712555408477783, "model_output": 6.7126, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0787 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0258, "total": 6.7126, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078677 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015874 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014122 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010814 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010531 } ], "others_margin": 0.025697 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0519, "goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "shots_on_target": 0.1624, "total_shots": 0.4149, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.5025, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 10.649, "accurate_pass": 9.5943, "duels_won": 1.2822, "total_long_balls": 0.6795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.368, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9494, "crosses_total": 2.1598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0583, "touches": 17.8392, "possession_lost": 5.2947, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 1.8684, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.473, "won_contest": 0.6728, "ball_recovery": 1.1621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1903, "fouls_drawn": 0.0685, "assists": 0.1314, "assist_rate": 0.1314, "interceptions": 0.2109, "tackles_won": 0.1756, "tackles": 0.4601, "clearances": 0.1756, "blocks": 0.0583, "big_chances_created": 0.0583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0033, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 6.2115, "total_progression": 1.7973, "progressive_carries": 1.068, "shots_off_target": 0.2525 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0092, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 26.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assists": 0.1486, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0037, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.46, "projection_minutes": 23.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1307, "appearance_probability": 0.612 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assists": 0.1486, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0037, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0037, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.612 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0587, "after": 0.0282 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0536, "after": 0.0266 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2079, "fifa_rank": 1102.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0276, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0276, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "scorer_weight": 0.0301, "squad_weight_total": 1.1226, "weight_share": 0.0268, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "appearance_weight": 0.612, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.2691, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2691, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2449 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0276, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "provider_weight": 0.0333, "squad_weight_total": 0.6637, "weight_share": 0.0501, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.612, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "weight": 0.1487, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1487, "runner_up": "Neco Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0986, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dan Ndoye" ] } ] } } ] }, "Igor Jesus": { "player_id": 981619, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1246, "goal_rate": 0.16, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.04, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6974, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363869, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1585, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 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"premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7361, "expected_assists": 0.04, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2227, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 10, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1824, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2855, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8336, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0557, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3083, "combined_rank_score": 1050.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1403.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6974, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 }, { "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking": 3080 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Ruibal", "ranking": 3081 }, { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 3084 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Alvarado", "ranking": 3085 }, { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 }, { "player_name": "Victor Lindelöf", "ranking": 3087 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Bobb", "ranking": 3088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.27590653284853, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.354, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0058, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Nottingham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (42 historical appearances) to 26.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.35); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1227, "goals": 0.159, "goal_rate": 0.159, "shots_on_target": 0.3574, "total_shots": 1.0675, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "key_pass": 0.3692, "rating": 6.6974, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 9.2092, "accurate_pass": 8.0653, "duels_won": 2.3576, "total_long_balls": 0.1263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1263, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2929, "crosses_total": 0.3599, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 14.7094, "possession_lost": 3.0007, "dispossessed": 0.6208, "duels_lost": 2.5611, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 0.1749, "won_contest": 0.1749, "ball_recovery": 1.3526, "challenges_lost": 0.2309, "fouls": 0.6995, "fouls_drawn": 0.5659, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4286, "tackles": 0.6985, "clearances": 0.3085, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3851, "xgot": 0.2911, "offsides": 0.1119, "ball_carries": 4.9559, "total_progression": 27.905, "progressive_carries": 0.8936, "shots_off_target": 0.7101 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-18T10:06:22.870916+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 11.9057, "expectedGoals": 0.2229, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.9247, "accuratePass": 13.2743, "totalShots": 1.8596 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1226712167263031, "model_output": 0.1227, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.004 } ], 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"contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0022, "total": 0.159, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49547 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.141255 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.128465 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.067944 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.061202 } ], "others_margin": -0.013656 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3573628067970276, "model_output": 0.3574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2111 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 0.3574, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.498582 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.073945 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.044822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.037221 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.026375 } ], "others_margin": -0.017795 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0674586296081543, "model_output": 1.0675, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5979 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0968 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0336 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 1.0675, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597946 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.108681 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.096756 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.034822 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.033622 } ], "others_margin": 0.017683 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.039407845586538315, "model_output": 0.0394, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0024 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 0.0394, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.289851 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.06206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.057833 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05529 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.045317 } ], "others_margin": -0.179145 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3691779673099518, "model_output": 0.3692, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.235 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0177, "total": 0.3692, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.429134 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036505 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.035207 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030322 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.02302 } ], "others_margin": -0.046826 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6974358558654785, "model_output": 6.6974, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0163, "total": 6.6974, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063412 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015428 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012864 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01142 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006791 } ], "others_margin": -0.016234 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"shots_off_target": 0.7212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "projection_minutes": 26.02, "minutes_scale": 1.0098, "appearance_probability": 0.354 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1246, "goals": 0.16, "goal_rate": 0.16, "shots_on_target": 0.3623, "total_shots": 1.0836, "expected_assists": 0.04, "key_pass": 0.375, "rating": 6.6974, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.2957, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.7212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1246, "goal_rate": 0.16, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3623, "total_shots": 1.0836, "expected_assists": 0.04, "key_pass": 0.375, "rating": 6.6974, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, 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"available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.354, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1246, "goal_rate": 0.16, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3623, "total_shots": 1.0836, "expected_assists": 0.04, "key_pass": 0.375, "rating": 6.6974, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.2957, 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"position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 177, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 1, 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023984, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2463, "expected_assists": 0.2847, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 5, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025170, "match_date": "2026-02-06", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1098, "expected_assists": 0.0595, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", 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-0.0159 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0258, "total": 6.7126, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078677 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015874 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014122 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010814 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010531 } ], "others_margin": 0.025697 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0519, "goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "shots_on_target": 0.1624, "total_shots": 0.4149, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.5025, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 10.649, "accurate_pass": 9.5943, "duels_won": 1.2822, "total_long_balls": 0.6795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.368, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9494, "crosses_total": 2.1598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0583, "touches": 17.8392, "possession_lost": 5.2947, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 1.8684, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.473, "won_contest": 0.6728, "ball_recovery": 1.1621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1903, "fouls_drawn": 0.0685, "assists": 0.1314, "assist_rate": 0.1314, "interceptions": 0.2109, "tackles_won": 0.1756, "tackles": 0.4601, "clearances": 0.1756, "blocks": 0.0583, "big_chances_created": 0.0583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0033, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 6.2115, "total_progression": 1.7973, "progressive_carries": 1.068, "shots_off_target": 0.2525 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0092, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 26.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assists": 0.1486, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0037, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.46, "projection_minutes": 23.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1307, "appearance_probability": 0.612 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assists": 0.1486, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0037, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0037, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.612 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0587, "after": 0.0282 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0536, "after": 0.0266 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2079, "fifa_rank": 1102.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0276, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0276, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "scorer_weight": 0.0301, "squad_weight_total": 1.1226, "weight_share": 0.0268, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "appearance_weight": 0.612, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.2691, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2691, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2449 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.4691, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.5682, "rating": 6.7126, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 12.041, "accurate_pass": 10.8484, "duels_won": 1.4498, "total_long_balls": 0.7683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4161, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9885, "crosses_total": 2.4421, "crosses_accurate": 0.0659, "touches": 20.1711, "possession_lost": 5.9868, "dispossessed": 0.6475, "duels_lost": 2.1126, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 1.6655, "won_contest": 0.7607, "ball_recovery": 1.314, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2385, "tackles_won": 0.1986, "tackles": 0.5202, "clearances": 0.1986, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.0659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0358, "ball_carries": 7.0235, "total_progression": 2.0322, "progressive_carries": 1.2076, "shots_off_target": 0.2855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0276, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.0681, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.1486, "provider_weight": 0.0333, "squad_weight_total": 0.6637, "weight_share": 0.0501, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.612, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "weight": 0.1487, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1487, "runner_up": "Neco Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0986, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dan Ndoye" ] } ] } } ] }, "Omari Hutchinson": { "player_id": 1090963, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 174, "market_value": 28000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.011, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0401, "finishing_factor": 1.1108, "creation_factor": 1.0411, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1602, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham 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"name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0762 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0086 } ], "others": 0.0095, "total": 6.7341, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028548 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023422 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.009024 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.0086 } ], "others_margin": 0.009643 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7981, "expected_assists": 0.1051, "assists": 0.1117, "assist_rate": 0.1117, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.1572, "total_shots": 0.3969, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 25.83, "total_pass": 8.4469, "accurate_pass": 6.9003, "duels_won": 1.8721, "total_long_balls": 0.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.656, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2444, "crosses_total": 3.3191, "crosses_accurate": 0.9088, "touches": 18.7407, "possession_lost": 6.0449, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.3201, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.088, "tackles_won": 0.2041, "tackles": 0.3556, "clearances": 0.2181, "total_contest": 1.4219, "won_contest": 0.933, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2993, "fouls_drawn": 0.5835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.0774, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 7.4698, "total_progression": 50.9648, "progressive_carries": 1.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.2396 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.8 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "assists": 0.0996, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.02, "projection_minutes": 25.83, "minutes_scale": 0.8912, "appearance_probability": 0.546 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "assists": 0.0996, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.12 (squad xG sum 1.4209, xG scale 0.7861, xA scale 0.8123, team xA 0.73 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1108, "creation_factor": 1.0411 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.117, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4209, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8939, "team_expected_assists": 0.726, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7861, "xa_scale": 0.8123, "opponent_lambda": 1.792, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.546 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0111 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.0416 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1108, "creation_factor": 1.0411, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3283, "fifa_rank": 1796.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.011, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1108, "creation_factor": 1.0411, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.011, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "scorer_weight": 0.0123, "squad_weight_total": 1.1226, "weight_share": 0.011, "finishing_factor": 1.1108, "appearance_weight": 0.546, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dan Ndoye", "weight": 0.2691, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2691, "runner_up": "Liam Delap", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2449 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7113, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1401, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2135, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.259, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.011, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0401, "finishing_factor": 1.1108, "creation_factor": 1.0411, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0996, "provider_weight": 0.0433, "squad_weight_total": 0.6637, "weight_share": 0.0653, "creation_factor": 1.0411, "appearance_weight": 0.546, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "weight": 0.1487, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1487, "runner_up": "Neco Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0986, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dan Ndoye" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.12, "expected_assists": 0.73, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 388, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } }, "Arsenal": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bukayo Saka": { "player_id": 934235, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 115000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3555, "goal_rate": 0.3512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2031, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.3308, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 13.9592, "dispossessed": 0.7361, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "assist_rate": 0.1132, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4959, "offsides": 1, 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3634, "goals": 0.353, "goal_rate": 0.353, "shots_on_target": 1.053, "total_shots": 2.4947, "expected_assists": 0.2017, "key_pass": 1.6655, "rating": 7.3308, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 30.44, "accurate_pass": 23.9426, "duels_won": 5.431, "total_long_balls": 1.1447, "accurate_long_balls": 0.515, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9659, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7411, "crosses_total": 3.3589, "crosses_accurate": 1.1577, "touches": 51.7997, "possession_lost": 13.9592, "dispossessed": 0.7361, "duels_lost": 5.1818, "aerial_lost": 1.2302, "total_contest": 2.8825, "won_contest": 1.2188, "ball_recovery": 3.7013, "challenges_lost": 0.5145, "fouls": 1.0433, "fouls_drawn": 2.495, "assists": 0.1142, "assist_rate": 0.1142, "interceptions": 0.5619, "tackles_won": 0.9672, "tackles": 1.3424, "clearances": 0.9214, "blocks": 0.2022, "big_chances_created": 0.1901, "big_chances_missed": 0.5891, "xgot": 0.5069, "offsides": 0.8521, "ball_carries": 18.9676, "total_progression": 89.312, "progressive_carries": 3.6779, "shots_off_target": 1.4417 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 115000000, "quality_factor": 0.8968, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3634, "goals": 0.3595, "goal_rate": 0.3595, "shots_on_target": 1.0532, "total_shots": 2.4963, "expected_assists": 0.2017, "key_pass": 1.6655, "rating": 7.3308, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 30.44, "accurate_pass": 23.9426, "duels_won": 5.431, "total_long_balls": 1.1447, "accurate_long_balls": 0.515, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9659, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7411, "crosses_total": 3.3727, "crosses_accurate": 1.1577, "touches": 51.7997, "possession_lost": 13.9592, "dispossessed": 0.7361, "duels_lost": 5.1818, "aerial_lost": 1.2302, "total_contest": 2.8825, "won_contest": 1.2188, "ball_recovery": 3.7013, "challenges_lost": 0.5145, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 2.5068, "assists": 0.1132, "assist_rate": 0.1132, "interceptions": 0.5666, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "tackles": 1.3424, "clearances": 0.9214, "blocks": 0.2022, "big_chances_created": 0.1901, "big_chances_missed": 0.5891, "xgot": 0.5069, "offsides": 0.8542, "ball_carries": 18.9676, "total_progression": 89.312, "progressive_carries": 3.6779, "shots_off_target": 1.4417 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9323, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.3589, "after": 3.3727 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.495, "after": 2.5068 }, { 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"opponent_faced": "Murillo, Ousmane Diomande", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Murillo, Ousmane Diomande", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9768, "skill_edge": 0.0182, "height_edge": -0.034, "attacker_skill": 0.8968, "defender_skill": 0.8564, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Murillo", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8633 }, { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "market_value": 44000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8495 } ], "xg_override": 0.355 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4963, "after": 2.4384 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4417, "after": 1.4083 }, { "stat": 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51.7997, "possession_lost": 13.9592, "dispossessed": 0.7361, "duels_lost": 5.1818, "aerial_lost": 1.2302, "total_contest": 2.8825, "won_contest": 1.2188, "ball_recovery": 3.7013, "challenges_lost": 0.5145, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 2.5068, "assist_rate": 0.1132, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5666, "tackles_won": 0.9731, "tackles": 1.3424, "clearances": 0.9214, "blocks": 0.2022, "big_chances_created": 0.1901, "big_chances_missed": 0.5754, "xgot": 0.4951, "offsides": 0.8542, "ball_carries": 18.9676, "total_progression": 89.312, "progressive_carries": 3.6779, "shots_off_target": 1.4083, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9768, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo, Ousmane Diomande", "opponent_faced": "Murillo, Ousmane Diomande", 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"contribution": 0.045 } ], "others": -0.0549, "total": 1.3423, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.161447 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.083237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.062025 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.050134 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.045004 } ], "others_margin": -0.055071 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.177881240844727, "model_output": 7.1779, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1422 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0812 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0336 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3411, "expected_assists": 0.1487, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.1159, "goals": 0.1262, "goal_rate": 0.1262, "shots_on_target": 0.504, "total_shots": 1.3615, "rating": 7.1779, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 51.9663, "accurate_pass": 44.1648, "duels_won": 6.4369, "total_long_balls": 4.4427, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6929, "total_own_half_passes": 19.985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2246, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9402, "crosses_total": 3.5712, "crosses_accurate": 0.8837, "touches": 72.9554, "possession_lost": 15.3758, "dispossessed": 1.5097, "duels_lost": 5.1634, "aerial_won": 0.3703, "aerial_lost": 0.4207, "interceptions": 0.6542, "tackles_won": 1.3091, "tackles": 1.9086, "clearances": 1.1681, "total_contest": 1.7861, "won_contest": 0.726, "challenges_lost": 0.7379, "fouls": 1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 3.428, 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1.5891, "fouls_drawn": 3.428, "blocks": 0.3645, "big_chances_created": 0.2511, "big_chances_missed": 0.1638, "xgot": 0.1999, "ball_carries": 22.5299, "total_progression": 55.9224, "progressive_carries": 1.2794, "shots_off_target": 0.8575, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3411, "expected_assists": 0.1497, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1161, "goal_rate": 0.1262, "goals": 0, 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Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0621, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0219 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 0.7522, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.302102 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060282 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.035047 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.024147 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.021913 } ], "others_margin": -0.003548 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753459453582764, "model_output": 6.7535, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6781, "tackles": 1.4778, "tackles_won": 0.963, "clearances": 2.2432, "aerial_won": 1.5256, "total_shots": 0.763, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 79.24, "total_pass": 29.1745, "accurate_pass": 24.3709, "duels_won": 3.8821, "total_long_balls": 1.2503, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0694, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3015, "crosses_total": 0.7966, "crosses_accurate": 0.1737, "touches": 45.3115, "possession_lost": 8.7527, "dispossessed": 0.4109, "duels_lost": 3.0662, "aerial_lost": 1.308, "total_contest": 0.9234, "won_contest": 0.45, "ball_recovery": 2.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.303, "fouls": 0.7343, "fouls_drawn": 0.2021, "blocks": 0.2641, "goals": 0.1557, 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"margin": -0.061915 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.061861 } ], "others_margin": 0.003363 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7211326956748962, "model_output": 0.7211, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.7211, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.140952 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056839 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0128, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9588, "tackles": 1.2481, "tackles_won": 0.7434, "clearances": 6.1547, "aerial_won": 2.2105, "total_shots": 0.7304, "rating": 6.8985, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 54.7433, "accurate_pass": 47.4494, "duels_won": 4.6691, "total_long_balls": 5.4275, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7978, "total_own_half_passes": 31.1849, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5583, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3767, "crosses_total": 0.119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0096, "touches": 69.6076, "possession_lost": 8.6537, "dispossessed": 0.5237, "duels_lost": 4.3751, "aerial_lost": 2.5768, "total_contest": 0.0809, "won_contest": 0.0804, "ball_recovery": 2.7507, "challenges_lost": 0.3549, "fouls": 0.9256, "fouls_drawn": 1.0976, "blocks": 0.8886, "goals": 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"importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0776 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 0.389, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077583 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051138 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016433 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010543 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.008341 } ], "others_margin": -0.023722 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.828512191772461, "model_output": 6.8285, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 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39, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0538, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7287, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3934, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8276, "fouls_drawn": 1.7285, "blocks": 0.5714, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3932, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8272, "fouls_drawn": 1.7276, "blocks": 0.5714, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9999, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3933, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8272, "fouls_drawn": 1.7276, "blocks": 0.5714, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3933, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8272, "fouls_drawn": 1.7276, "blocks": 0.5714, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3933, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8272, "fouls_drawn": 1.7276, "blocks": 0.5714, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3933, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8272, "fouls_drawn": 1.7276, "blocks": 0.5714, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8418 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3933, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8272, "fouls_drawn": 1.7276, "blocks": 0.5714, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8418, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 443, "fifa_rank": 195.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3933, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9535, "crosses_total": 0.0386, "crosses_accurate": 0.0352, "touches": 68.4944, "possession_lost": 3.2285, "dispossessed": 0.4816, "duels_lost": 2.741, "aerial_lost": 1.3772, "total_contest": 0.2671, "won_contest": 0.2643, "ball_recovery": 3.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.8272, "fouls_drawn": 1.7276, "blocks": 0.5714, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0034, "big_chances_created": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 18.5447, "total_progression": 57.3103, "progressive_carries": 0.3862, "key_pass": 0.1814, "shots_off_target": 0.3899, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0498, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8418, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0498, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0409, "squad_weight_total": 1.7121, "weight_share": 0.0239, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.387, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.387, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3522 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0533, "tackles": 1.3443, "tackles_won": 0.7283, "clearances": 4.6497, "aerial_won": 1.7012, "total_shots": 0.3933, "rating": 6.8285, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.1766, "accurate_pass": 54.9715, "duels_won": 4.736, "total_long_balls": 2.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6729, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.018, 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"matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0498, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8418, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.008, "squad_weight_total": 1.1173, "weight_share": 0.0072, "creation_factor": 0.8418, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "weight": 0.1713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1713, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1625, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ben White": { "player_id": 846036, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 186, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { 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-0.0147 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 6.7416, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018949 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014689 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.01046 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008627 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008228 } ], "others_margin": -0.020075 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0155, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7185, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.081, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0269, "crosses_total": 1.8276, "crosses_accurate": 0.3155, "touches": 54.7074, "possession_lost": 11.0934, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.749, "total_contest": 0.65, "won_contest": 0.3221, "ball_recovery": 2.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.3768, "fouls_drawn": 0.8817, "blocks": 0.1371, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2825, "assist_rate": 0.2825, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.0284, "big_chances_created": 0.2923, "xgot": 0.0092, "ball_carries": 9.4667, "total_progression": 20.9383, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "key_pass": 0.6982, "shots_off_target": 0.3798 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0155, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0197)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, 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"after": 1.8398 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8817, "after": 0.8724 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.081, "after": 1.0758 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0269, "crosses_total": 1.8398, "crosses_accurate": 0.3155, "touches": 54.7074, "possession_lost": 11.0934, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.749, "total_contest": 0.65, "won_contest": 0.3221, "ball_recovery": 2.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.3774, "fouls_drawn": 0.8724, "blocks": 0.1371, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.285, "assist_rate": 0.285, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.0278, "big_chances_created": 0.2923, "xgot": 0.0092, "ball_carries": 9.4667, "total_progression": 20.9383, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "key_pass": 0.6982, "shots_off_target": 0.3798 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0269, "crosses_total": 1.8398, "crosses_accurate": 0.3155, "touches": 54.7074, "possession_lost": 11.0934, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.749, "total_contest": 0.65, "won_contest": 0.3221, "ball_recovery": 2.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.3774, "fouls_drawn": 0.8724, "blocks": 0.1371, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.285, "assist_rate": 0.285, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.0278, "big_chances_created": 0.2923, "xgot": 0.0092, "ball_carries": 9.4667, "total_progression": 20.9383, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "key_pass": 0.6982, "shots_off_target": 0.3798, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0269, "crosses_total": 1.8398, "crosses_accurate": 0.3155, "touches": 54.7074, "possession_lost": 11.0934, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.749, "total_contest": 0.65, "won_contest": 0.3221, "ball_recovery": 2.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.3774, "fouls_drawn": 0.8724, "blocks": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.285, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0821, "shots_on_target": 0.0278, "big_chances_created": 0.2923, "xgot": 0.0092, "ball_carries": 9.4667, "total_progression": 20.9383, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "key_pass": 0.6982, "shots_off_target": 0.3798, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0269, "crosses_total": 1.8398, "crosses_accurate": 0.3155, "touches": 54.7074, "possession_lost": 11.0934, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.749, "total_contest": 0.65, "won_contest": 0.3221, "ball_recovery": 2.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.3774, "fouls_drawn": 0.8724, "blocks": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.285, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "shots_on_target": 0.0278, "big_chances_created": 0.2923, "xgot": 0.0092, "ball_carries": 9.4667, "total_progression": 20.9383, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "key_pass": 0.6982, "shots_off_target": 0.3798, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0269, "crosses_total": 1.8398, "crosses_accurate": 0.3155, "touches": 54.7074, "possession_lost": 11.0934, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.749, "total_contest": 0.65, "won_contest": 0.3221, "ball_recovery": 2.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.3774, "fouls_drawn": 0.8724, "blocks": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.285, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "shots_on_target": 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provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7204, "tackles": 1.8151, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.3948, "aerial_won": 0.9094, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 73.45, "total_pass": 36.1911, "accurate_pass": 29.3299, "duels_won": 4.0091, "total_long_balls": 3.3973, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 11.461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.303, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0269, "crosses_total": 1.8398, "crosses_accurate": 0.3155, "touches": 54.7074, "possession_lost": 11.0934, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.749, "total_contest": 0.65, "won_contest": 0.3221, "ball_recovery": 2.8814, "challenges_lost": 0.3916, "fouls": 0.3774, "fouls_drawn": 0.8724, "blocks": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.285, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "shots_on_target": 0.0278, 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} ] } } ] }, "David Raya": { "player_id": 581310, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 186, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 44, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1498, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.59, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 130.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3714, "sofascore_appearances": 14.0, "fifa_rank": 34.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9291, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking": 66 }, { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 }, { "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking": 69 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 }, { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 }, { "player_name": "Chema Andrés", "ranking": 75 } ] } }, 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-18", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 6.2162, "save_contribution": 2.3279, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9336, 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"passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012179 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007333 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.003495 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.003451 } ], "others_margin": -0.009879 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.06078065186738968, "model_output": -0.0608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": -0.0608, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017651 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.016707 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014933 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.013362 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.013128 } ], "others_margin": -0.016555 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.929144382476807, "model_output": 6.9291, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.001, "total": 6.9291, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023142 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.022604 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.017359 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015812 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.011596 } ], "others_margin": -0.000937 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9583, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.7229, "accurate_pass": 20.2643, "total_long_balls": 17.3117, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2616, "touches": 44.0401, "clearances": 1.1906, "ball_recovery": 10.5846, "high_claims": 1.4121, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 0.7537, "sweeper_actions": 1.1479, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1479, "saves_inside_box": 1.4912, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1.2421, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0022, "won_contest": 0.0022, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6282, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2849 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0073, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9361, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.7229, "accurate_pass": 20.2643, "total_long_balls": 17.3117, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2616, "touches": 44.0401, "clearances": 1.1906, "ball_recovery": 10.5846, "high_claims": 1.4121, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 0.7537, "sweeper_actions": 1.1479, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1479, "saves_inside_box": 1.4912, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1.2421, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0022, "won_contest": 0.0022, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2849 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9583, "after": 2.9361 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6282, "after": 0.6225 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9361, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.7229, "accurate_pass": 20.2643, "total_long_balls": 17.3117, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2616, "touches": 44.0401, "clearances": 1.1906, "ball_recovery": 10.5846, "high_claims": 1.4121, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 0.7537, "sweeper_actions": 1.1479, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1479, "saves_inside_box": 1.4912, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1.2421, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0022, "won_contest": 0.0022, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2849 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9361, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.7229, "accurate_pass": 20.2643, "total_long_balls": 17.3117, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2616, "touches": 44.0401, "clearances": 1.1906, "ball_recovery": 10.5846, "high_claims": 1.4121, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 0.7537, "sweeper_actions": 1.1479, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1479, "saves_inside_box": 1.4912, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1.2421, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0022, "won_contest": 0.0022, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2849, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1498, "shots_faced": 10.9, "expected_saves": 2.67, "high_pressure_saves": 0.92, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1498 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9361, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.7229, "accurate_pass": 20.2643, "total_long_balls": 17.3117, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2616, "touches": 44.0401, "clearances": 1.1906, "ball_recovery": 10.5846, "high_claims": 1.4121, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 0.7537, "sweeper_actions": 1.1479, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1479, "saves_inside_box": 1.4912, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1.2421, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0022, "won_contest": 0.0022, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2849, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1498, "shots_faced": 10.9, "expected_saves": 2.67, "high_pressure_saves": 0.92, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9361, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.7229, "accurate_pass": 20.2643, "total_long_balls": 17.3117, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2616, "touches": 44.0401, "clearances": 1.1906, "ball_recovery": 10.5846, "high_claims": 1.4121, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 0.7537, "sweeper_actions": 1.1479, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1479, "saves_inside_box": 1.4912, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1.2421, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0022, "won_contest": 0.0022, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2849, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1498, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.59, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.9, "after": 10.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.67, "after": 2.59 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.92, "after": 0.89 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9361, "goals_prevented": -0.0612, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.7229, "accurate_pass": 20.2643, "total_long_balls": 17.3117, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2616, "touches": 44.0401, "clearances": 1.1906, "ball_recovery": 10.5846, "high_claims": 1.4121, "punches": 0.8134, "aerial_won": 0.7537, "sweeper_actions": 1.1479, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1479, "saves_inside_box": 1.4912, "possession_lost": 11.8483, "duels_won": 1.2421, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0022, "won_contest": 0.0022, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2849, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1498, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.59, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.1713, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1625, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "player_id": 547410, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 88000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", 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0.4234, "total_contest": 1.4973, "won_contest": 0.3372, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.4726, "fouls_drawn": 0.9299, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3955, "big_chances_missed": 0.1715, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 24.6283, "total_progression": 60.2675, "progressive_carries": 1.8611, "shots_off_target": 0.8154 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 88000000, "quality_factor": 0.8879, "boost_factor": 1.0164, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0099)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9588, "expected_assists": 0.1759, "assists": 0.1685, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "expected_goals": 0.197, "goals": 0.1836, "goal_rate": 0.1836, "shots_on_target": 0.6143, "total_shots": 1.4379, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9232, "crosses_total": 1.1447, "crosses_accurate": 0.2186, "touches": 61.2842, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 0.0701, "aerial_lost": 0.4534, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5547, "tackles": 0.859, "clearances": 0.4234, "total_contest": 1.4973, "won_contest": 0.3372, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.4679, "fouls_drawn": 0.9262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3955, "big_chances_missed": 0.1715, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 24.6283, "total_progression": 60.2675, "progressive_carries": 1.8611, "shots_off_target": 0.8154 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0099, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8869, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5436, "after": 0.5547 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4303, "after": 1.4379 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1395, "after": 1.1447 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9588, "expected_assists": 0.1759, "assists": 0.1685, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "expected_goals": 0.197, "goals": 0.1836, "goal_rate": 0.1836, "shots_on_target": 0.6143, "total_shots": 1.4379, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9232, "crosses_total": 1.1447, "crosses_accurate": 0.2186, "touches": 61.2842, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 0.0701, "aerial_lost": 0.4534, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5547, "tackles": 0.859, "clearances": 0.4234, "total_contest": 1.4973, "won_contest": 0.3372, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.4679, "fouls_drawn": 0.9262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3955, "big_chances_missed": 0.1715, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 24.6283, "total_progression": 60.2675, "progressive_carries": 1.8611, "shots_off_target": 0.8154 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9588, "expected_assists": 0.1759, "assists": 0.1685, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "expected_goals": 0.1944, "goals": 0.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "shots_on_target": 0.6063, "total_shots": 1.4191, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9232, "crosses_total": 1.1447, "crosses_accurate": 0.2186, "touches": 61.2842, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4534, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5547, "tackles": 0.859, "clearances": 0.4234, "total_contest": 1.4973, "won_contest": 0.3372, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.4679, "fouls_drawn": 0.9262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3955, "big_chances_missed": 0.1693, "xgot": 0.1238, "ball_carries": 24.6283, "total_progression": 60.2675, "progressive_carries": 1.8611, "shots_off_target": 0.8047, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9869, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo", "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9869, "skill_edge": 0.0111, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8879, "defender_skill": 0.8633, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Murillo", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8633 } ], "xg_override": 0.1944 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0701, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4379, "after": 1.4191 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8154, "after": 0.8047 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6143, "after": 0.6063 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9588, "expected_assists": 0.1759, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1944, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6063, "total_shots": 1.4191, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9232, "crosses_total": 1.1447, "crosses_accurate": 0.2186, "touches": 61.2842, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4534, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5547, "tackles": 0.859, "clearances": 0.4234, "total_contest": 1.4973, "won_contest": 0.3372, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.4679, "fouls_drawn": 0.9262, 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"expected_assists": 0.1771, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6063, "total_shots": 1.4191, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9232, "crosses_total": 1.1447, "crosses_accurate": 0.2186, "touches": 61.2842, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4534, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5547, "tackles": 0.859, "clearances": 0.4234, "total_contest": 1.4973, "won_contest": 0.3372, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.4679, "fouls_drawn": 0.9262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3955, "big_chances_missed": 0.1693, "xgot": 0.124, "ball_carries": 24.6283, "total_progression": 60.2675, "progressive_carries": 1.8611, "shots_off_target": 0.8047, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9869, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo", "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.946, "creation_factor": 0.9672 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9588, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6063, "total_shots": 1.4191, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9232, "crosses_total": 1.1447, "crosses_accurate": 0.2186, "touches": 61.2842, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4534, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5547, "tackles": 0.859, "clearances": 0.4234, "total_contest": 1.4973, "won_contest": 0.3372, "challenges_lost": 0.3488, "fouls": 0.4679, "fouls_drawn": 0.9262, "blocks": 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official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9588, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6063, "total_shots": 1.4191, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9232, "crosses_total": 1.1447, "crosses_accurate": 0.2186, "touches": 61.2842, "possession_lost": 10.5509, "dispossessed": 0.5435, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4534, "interceptions": 0.3735, "tackles_won": 0.5547, "tackles": 0.859, 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"scorer_weight": 0.1842, "squad_weight_total": 1.7121, "weight_share": 0.1076, "finishing_factor": 0.946, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.387, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.387, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3522 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9588, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "goal_rate": 0.1812, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6063, "total_shots": 1.4191, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 79.82, "total_pass": 50.0944, "accurate_pass": 44.3531, "duels_won": 2.1962, "total_long_balls": 3.4423, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4298, 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{ "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.047375 } ], "others_margin": -0.128998 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3763331472873688, "model_output": 0.3763, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.754 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1448 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 0.3763, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.792898 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.264352 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.084887 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.064934 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032821 } ], "others_margin": -0.057523 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1462455540895462, "model_output": 0.1462, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2067 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0287, "total": 0.1462, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20671 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.061239 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015578 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009141 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00699 } ], "others_margin": -0.028598 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.629504680633545, "model_output": 6.6295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.05, "total": 6.6295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.039035 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.02421 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016199 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013866 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011905 } ], "others_margin": -0.049983 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.3375, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0782, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.377, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.3 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1393, "tackles": 0.3734, "tackles_won": 0.2183, "clearances": 0.3979, "aerial_won": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.0782, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 15.3, "total_pass": 6.3783, "accurate_pass": 5.2876, "duels_won": 0.6195, "total_long_balls": 0.7025, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1212, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3619, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5848, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9257, "crosses_total": 0.1678, "crosses_accurate": 0.1678, "touches": 9.9539, "possession_lost": 2.3216, "dispossessed": 0.23, "duels_lost": 1.2709, "aerial_lost": 0.6556, "total_contest": 0.4122, 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0.3676891624927521, "model_output": 0.3677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1838 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 0.3677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.183827 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.028093 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025309 }, { 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"assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2152, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1061 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0666 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": 0.1137, "total": 0.7283, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449485 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.13452 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.106115 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.066609 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.030423 } ], "others_margin": 0.113577 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.703412055969238, "model_output": 6.7034, "scale": "0-10", 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"premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 116, "combined_rank_score": 110.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 125.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6446, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jérémy Doku", "ranking": 111 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Lamas", "ranking": 112 }, { "player_name": "Jun-ho Son", "ranking": 113 }, { "player_name": "Luka Modrić", "ranking": 114 }, { "player_name": "Jean Meneses", "ranking": 115 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0448, "total": 0.3915, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.438229 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065415 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.039997 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.039427 } ], "others_margin": 0.12171 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.644575595855713, "model_output": 6.6446, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 6.6446, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060329 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011554 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010084 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.009349 } ], "others_margin": -0.061398 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.855)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1112, "goals": 0.1191, "goal_rate": 0.1191, "shots_on_target": 0.2295, "total_shots": 0.5855, "expected_assists": 0.0408, "key_pass": 0.3962, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 23.01, "total_pass": 4.2472, "accurate_pass": 3.4297, "duels_won": 0.8595, "total_long_balls": 0.1726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1726, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7563, "crosses_total": 0.18, "crosses_accurate": 0.106, "touches": 8.7526, "possession_lost": 2.7203, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.0035, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.2591, "won_contest": 0.106, "ball_recovery": 1.0659, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 0.9554, "fouls_drawn": 0.3953, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1726, "tackles": 0.2628, "clearances": 0.166, "blocks": 0.132, "big_chances_created": 0.443, "big_chances_missed": 0.1164, "xgot": 0.1102, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5969, "total_progression": 16.3303, "progressive_carries": 0.6679, "shots_off_target": 0.356 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 61000000, "quality_factor": 0.8548, "boost_factor": 1.0119, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1302, "goals": 0.1395, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.129, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 23.01, "minutes_scale": 1.171, "appearance_probability": 0.634 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1302, "goals": 0.1395, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.129, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1302, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.129, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.634 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1302, "after": 0.0827 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0478, "after": 0.0305 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "scorer_weight": 0.087, "squad_weight_total": 1.7121, "weight_share": 0.0508, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.387, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.387, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3522 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0244, "squad_weight_total": 1.1173, "weight_share": 0.0218, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "weight": 0.1713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1713, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1625, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Noni Madueke": { "player_id": 966547, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 54000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, 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0.0813, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2793, "expected_assists": 0.4665, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1719, "expected_assists": 0.2993, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", 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], "others": 0.1898, "total": 0.8953, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488324 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.162158 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.146274 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.130577 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.096025 } ], "others_margin": 0.238111 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.777985095977783, "model_output": 6.778, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0787 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 6.778, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078742 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048935 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02751 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.016047 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015383 } ], "others_margin": 0.013942 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0146, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0533, "goal_rate": 0.0533, "shots_on_target": 0.1681, "total_shots": 0.6808, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.9083, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.8806, "accurate_pass": 5.5741, "duels_won": 1.0378, "total_long_balls": 0.2056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1387, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2918, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0336, "crosses_total": 0.7708, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 11.8534, "possession_lost": 3.6563, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 1.6814, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.0799, "won_contest": 0.3128, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.2477, "fouls_drawn": 0.3556, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1631, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1281, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1393, "ball_carries": 4.101, "total_progression": 19.1832, "progressive_carries": 1.3865, "shots_off_target": 0.5127 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.0146, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0532, "goal_rate": 0.0532, "shots_on_target": 0.1678, "total_shots": 0.6795, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.9083, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.8806, "accurate_pass": 5.5741, "duels_won": 1.0378, "total_long_balls": 0.2056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1387, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2918, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0336, "crosses_total": 0.7705, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 11.8534, "possession_lost": 3.6563, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 1.6814, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.0799, "won_contest": 0.3128, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.2472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3549, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1628, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1281, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 4.101, "total_progression": 19.1832, "progressive_carries": 1.3865, "shots_off_target": 0.5127 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0019, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1807, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.3 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.1138, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.74, "projection_minutes": 16.26, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.751 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.1138, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.1138, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.751 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0878, "after": 0.066 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1138, "after": 0.0861 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1068, "fifa_rank": 691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0632, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "scorer_weight": 0.0622, "squad_weight_total": 1.7121, "weight_share": 0.0363, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "appearance_weight": 0.751, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.387, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.387, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3522 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0632, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0813, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0813, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0689, "squad_weight_total": 1.1173, "weight_share": 0.0617, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.751, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "weight": 0.1713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1713, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1625, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Noni Madueke": { "player_id": 966547, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 54000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0632, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0813, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2793, "expected_assists": 0.4665, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", 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"West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2359, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025045, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.1682, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025039, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023987, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1068, "combined_rank_score": 480.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 270.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.08, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 691.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.778, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noni Madueke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "ranking": 1063 }, { "player_name": "Anatoliy Trubin", "ranking": 1064 }, { "player_name": "Iago Aspas", "ranking": 1065 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-muk Kang", "ranking": 1066 }, { "player_name": "Asadbek Rakhimjonov", "ranking": 1067 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Álvaro Madrid", "ranking": 1069 }, { "player_name": "Marius Marin", "ranking": 1070 }, { "player_name": "Cha Jun-young", "ranking": 1071 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Schade", "ranking": 1072 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Mamardashvili", "ranking": 1073 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", 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0.671, "expected_assists": 0.0748, "key_pass": 0.8953, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.7816, "accurate_pass": 5.4939, "duels_won": 1.0229, "total_long_balls": 0.2026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1367, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9612, "crosses_total": 0.7597, "crosses_accurate": 0.2294, "touches": 11.6828, "possession_lost": 3.6037, "dispossessed": 0.225, "duels_lost": 1.6572, "aerial_lost": 0.3391, "total_contest": 1.0644, "won_contest": 0.3083, "ball_recovery": 0.6539, "challenges_lost": 0.2004, "fouls": 0.2441, "fouls_drawn": 0.3505, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1608, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1749, "clearances": 0.1263, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1373, "ball_carries": 4.042, "total_progression": 18.9072, "progressive_carries": 1.3665, "shots_off_target": 0.5053 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 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81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 15.392, "expectedGoals": 0.073, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 12.858, "accuratePass": 15.4554, "totalShots": 1.2223 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05761101096868515, "model_output": 0.0576, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0857 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0207, "total": 0.0576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.569206 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.204621 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.053155 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050197 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048627 } ], "others_margin": -0.306317 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05251319706439972, "model_output": 0.0525, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0862 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 0.0525, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.551704 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.151902 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.119528 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.104173 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.055036 } ], "others_margin": -0.371557 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1657303273677826, "model_output": 0.1657, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2286 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0716, "total": 0.1657, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.078213 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.066706 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.058913 } ], "others_margin": -0.358665 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6709964871406555, "model_output": 0.671, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.522 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.033 } ], "others": -0.2046, "total": 0.671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.521984 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.108278 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.053677 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.045426 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.032951 } ], "others_margin": -0.204635 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07476836442947388, "model_output": 0.0748, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0028 } ], "others": 0.0105, "total": 0.0748, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.384748 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.194037 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.078494 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.068283 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.044481 } ], "others_margin": 0.151603 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8952601552009583, "model_output": 0.8953, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2602 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0727 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0785 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0646 } ], "others": 0.1898, "total": 0.8953, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488324 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.162158 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.146274 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.130577 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.096025 } ], "others_margin": 0.238111 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.777985095977783, "model_output": 6.778, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0787 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 6.778, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078742 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048935 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02751 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.016047 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015383 } ], "others_margin": 0.013942 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0146, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0533, "goal_rate": 0.0533, "shots_on_target": 0.1681, "total_shots": 0.6808, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.9083, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.8806, "accurate_pass": 5.5741, "duels_won": 1.0378, "total_long_balls": 0.2056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1387, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2918, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0336, "crosses_total": 0.7708, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 11.8534, "possession_lost": 3.6563, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 1.6814, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.0799, "won_contest": 0.3128, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.2477, "fouls_drawn": 0.3556, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1631, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1281, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1393, "ball_carries": 4.101, "total_progression": 19.1832, "progressive_carries": 1.3865, "shots_off_target": 0.5127 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.0146, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0532, "goal_rate": 0.0532, "shots_on_target": 0.1678, "total_shots": 0.6795, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.9083, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.8806, "accurate_pass": 5.5741, "duels_won": 1.0378, "total_long_balls": 0.2056, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1387, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2918, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0336, "crosses_total": 0.7705, "crosses_accurate": 0.2327, "touches": 11.8534, "possession_lost": 3.6563, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 1.6814, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.0799, "won_contest": 0.3128, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.2472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3549, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1628, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1281, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 4.101, "total_progression": 19.1832, "progressive_carries": 1.3865, "shots_off_target": 0.5127 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0019, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1807, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.3 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.1138, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.74, "projection_minutes": 16.26, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.751 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.1138, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.1138, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.751 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0878, "after": 0.066 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1138, "after": 0.0861 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1068, "fifa_rank": 691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0632, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "scorer_weight": 0.0622, "squad_weight_total": 1.7121, "weight_share": 0.0363, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "appearance_weight": 0.751, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.387, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.387, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3522 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 1.0208, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "key_pass": 1.3624, "rating": 6.778, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.3209, "accurate_pass": 8.3611, "duels_won": 1.5567, "total_long_balls": 0.3084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5504, "crosses_total": 1.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.349, "touches": 17.7801, "possession_lost": 5.4844, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 2.5221, "aerial_lost": 0.3441, "total_contest": 1.6199, "won_contest": 0.4692, "ball_recovery": 0.9951, "challenges_lost": 0.2033, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 0.5323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3911, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.139, "ball_carries": 6.1515, "total_progression": 28.7748, "progressive_carries": 2.0798, "shots_off_target": 0.7691, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0632, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0813, "finishing_factor": 0.9419, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0813, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0689, "squad_weight_total": 1.1173, "weight_share": 0.0617, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.751, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "weight": 0.1713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1713, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1625, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Martín Zubimendi": { "player_id": 966837, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 180, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1838 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 0.3677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.183827 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.028093 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025309 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.020349 } ], "others_margin": -0.046666 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723459243774414, "model_output": 6.7235, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0974 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.7235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097379 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027115 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012376 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007699 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.006373 } ], "others_margin": -0.031551 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2478, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assists": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.0445, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0365, "goal_rate": 0.0365, "shots_on_target": 0.1127, "total_shots": 0.372, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 21.79, "total_pass": 17.0055, "accurate_pass": 14.1613, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.633, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3186, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8428, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.3669, "possession_lost": 4.5785, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 2.0398, "aerial_won": 1.0297, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.6255, "tackles_won": 0.5139, "tackles": 0.846, "clearances": 0.3787, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.6197, "fouls_drawn": 0.0745, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2398, "total_progression": 10.3227, "progressive_carries": 0.0787, "shots_off_target": 0.2593 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2478, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assists": 0.0444, "assist_rate": 0.0444, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0365, "goal_rate": 0.0365, "shots_on_target": 0.1125, "total_shots": 0.3715, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 21.79, "total_pass": 17.0055, "accurate_pass": 14.1613, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.633, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3186, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8428, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.3669, "possession_lost": 4.5785, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 2.0398, "aerial_won": 1.0297, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.6247, "tackles_won": 0.5143, "tackles": 0.846, "clearances": 0.3787, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.6189, "fouls_drawn": 0.0744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2398, "total_progression": 10.3227, "progressive_carries": 0.0787, "shots_off_target": 0.2593 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2421, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2152, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assists": 0.0386, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0317, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.92, "projection_minutes": 21.79, "minutes_scale": 0.8683, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2152, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assists": 0.0386, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0317, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2152, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2152, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9646, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.728 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0347, "after": 0.0253 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0208, "after": 0.0152 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2152, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9646, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 54, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2152, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0977, "total_shots": 0.3228, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0249, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9646, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "scorer_weight": 0.0244, "squad_weight_total": 1.7121, 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"shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.018826 } ], "others_margin": -0.011389 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04031645134091377, "model_output": 0.0403, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.0403, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.293671 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.120447 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.102749 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.081243 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.06314 } ], "others_margin": -0.045131 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.39150604605674744, "model_output": 0.3915, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2389 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0448, "total": 0.3915, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.438229 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065415 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.039997 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.039427 } ], "others_margin": 0.12171 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.644575595855713, "model_output": 6.6446, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 6.6446, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060329 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011554 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010084 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.009349 } ], "others_margin": -0.061398 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.855)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1112, "goals": 0.1191, "goal_rate": 0.1191, "shots_on_target": 0.2295, "total_shots": 0.5855, "expected_assists": 0.0408, "key_pass": 0.3962, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 23.01, "total_pass": 4.2472, "accurate_pass": 3.4297, "duels_won": 0.8595, "total_long_balls": 0.1726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1726, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7563, "crosses_total": 0.18, "crosses_accurate": 0.106, "touches": 8.7526, "possession_lost": 2.7203, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.0035, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.2591, "won_contest": 0.106, "ball_recovery": 1.0659, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 0.9554, "fouls_drawn": 0.3953, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1726, "tackles": 0.2628, "clearances": 0.166, "blocks": 0.132, "big_chances_created": 0.443, "big_chances_missed": 0.1164, "xgot": 0.1102, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5969, "total_progression": 16.3303, "progressive_carries": 0.6679, "shots_off_target": 0.356 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 61000000, "quality_factor": 0.8548, "boost_factor": 1.0119, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1302, "goals": 0.1395, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.129, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 23.01, "minutes_scale": 1.171, "appearance_probability": 0.634 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1302, "goals": 0.1395, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.129, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1302, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.129, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.79 (squad xG sum 1.7892, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.0069, team xA 1.16 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.792, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7892, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1568, "team_expected_assists": 1.1648, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.0069, "opponent_lambda": 1.117, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.634 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1302, "after": 0.0827 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0478, "after": 0.0305 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "scorer_weight": 0.087, "squad_weight_total": 1.7121, "weight_share": 0.0508, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.387, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.387, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3522 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2687, "total_shots": 0.6856, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.464, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 4.9735, "accurate_pass": 4.0162, "duels_won": 1.0065, "total_long_balls": 0.2021, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2021, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2277, "crosses_total": 0.2108, "crosses_accurate": 0.1241, "touches": 10.2494, "possession_lost": 3.1855, "dispossessed": 0.2127, "duels_lost": 2.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.8656, "total_contest": 0.3034, "won_contest": 0.1241, "ball_recovery": 1.2482, "challenges_lost": 0.04, "fouls": 1.1188, "fouls_drawn": 0.4629, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2021, "tackles": 0.3077, "clearances": 0.1944, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.5188, "big_chances_missed": 0.1363, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.041, "total_progression": 19.1229, "progressive_carries": 0.7821, "shots_off_target": 0.4169, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.063, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.0516, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0244, "squad_weight_total": 1.1173, "weight_share": 0.0218, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "weight": 0.1713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1713, "runner_up": "Bukayo Saka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1625, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.79, "expected_assists": 1.16, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 485, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.99, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Liam Delap", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.219, "xg_contribution": 0.3386, "xg_multiplier": 0.9244, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 }, { "player": "Riccardo Calafiori", "role": "CB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Delap (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães and Riccardo Calafiori in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €70M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.339 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.202, "xg_contribution": 0.2886, "xg_multiplier": 0.9004, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.798 }, { "player": "Riccardo Calafiori", "role": "CB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.798 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães and Riccardo Calafiori in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €70M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.289 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.0368, "xg_multiplier": 0.941, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ezri Konsa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Sangaré (LWB) is evenly matched against Ezri Konsa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €53M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "James McAtee", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 19800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.629, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.871, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.069, "xg_multiplier": 0.8163, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "LB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "James McAtee (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Magalhães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €70M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.404, "xg_contribution": 0.2277, "xg_multiplier": 0.9328, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.596 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.228 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "xg_contribution": 0.1303, "xg_multiplier": 0.8688, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.639 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.130 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "xg_contribution": 0.1944, "xg_multiplier": 0.9869, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (LW) is evenly matched against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €49M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.1479, "xg_multiplier": 1.0275, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (CAM) is evenly matched against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kai Havertz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.81, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.222, "xg_contribution": 0.3991, "xg_multiplier": 1.0326, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778 }, { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kai Havertz (ST) is evenly matched against Murillo and Ousmane Diomande in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.399 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.81, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.355, "xg_multiplier": 0.9768, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (ST) is evenly matched against Murillo and Ousmane Diomande in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.355 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.727, "away_midfield_power": 0.906, "home_creative_power": 0.71, "away_creative_power": 0.948, "home_defensive_power": 0.553, "away_defensive_power": 0.73, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.445, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Ibrahim Sangaré", "James McAtee", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Declan Rice", "Martin Ødegaard", "Eberechi Eze" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 3.4, "key_personal_duel": "Morgan Gibbs-White vs Declan Rice", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.987, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.031 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.117, "away_lambda": 1.792, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Liam Delap": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ibrahim Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Ezri Konsa", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James McAtee": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Kai Havertz", "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matz Sels": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jair": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Bruno Guimarães": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Riccardo Calafiori": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kai Havertz": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ben White": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.09, Away: 1.10. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8771, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9036, "home_midfield_factor": 0.987, "away_midfield_factor": 1.031, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7334, "away_avg_quality": 0.8563, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1229, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7004, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.6397, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.8661, "elite_count_gap": -6, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2861, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1574, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0916, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.091, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1807 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.987, "result": 1.1654 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.1071 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2732 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8758, "result": 1.1151 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8871, "result": 0.9891 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8771, "result": 0.8676 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.0476 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0476, "result": 1.0476, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2861, "factor": 0.9084, "pre": 1.0476, "result": 0.9516 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9516 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1433, "result": 1.0953 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.1498 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1498, "result": 1.15, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.15, "result": 1.1171, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.117 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.117 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.117, "result": 1.117, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.117 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0964, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.2131 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.031, "result": 1.2507 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.3132 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3132 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0121, "result": 1.3291 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.3385 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9036, "result": 1.2095 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3895 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3895, "result": 1.3895, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2861, "factor": 1.1574, "pre": 1.3895, "result": 1.6082 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6082 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.828 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.7419 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.7419, "result": 1.742, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.742, "result": 1.7918, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.792 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.792 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.792, "result": 1.792, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.792 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1433, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.117, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.792, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1498, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.7419, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.117, "final_away_lambda": 1.792 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8758, "attack_index": 0.855, "defense_concede_index": 0.855, "form_multiplier": 0.959, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.26, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.26, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.92 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0121, "attack_index": 1.043, "defense_concede_index": 0.968, "form_multiplier": 1.041, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.54, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.43, "team_ppg": 1.92, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Forest vs Arsenal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.150, Away 1.742). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.117, Away 1.792 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.117, "away_lambda": 1.792, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.15, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.742 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-18T13:31:09Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }