{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261018", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1245, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1003, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0851, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2617, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1245 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1003 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0882 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0851 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.075 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0721, "0-1": 0.0851, "0-2": 0.0524, "0-3": 0.0213, "0-4": 0.0065, "0-5": 0.0016, "1-0": 0.1003, "1-1": 0.1245, "1-2": 0.075, "1-3": 0.0304, "1-4": 0.0092, "1-5": 0.0022, "2-0": 0.0725, "2-1": 0.0882, "2-2": 0.0536, "2-3": 0.0217, "2-4": 0.0066, "2-5": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0346, "3-1": 0.042, "3-2": 0.0256, "3-3": 0.0104, "3-4": 0.0031, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0124, "4-1": 0.015, "4-2": 0.0091, "4-3": 0.0037, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0035, "5-1": 0.0043, "5-2": 0.0026, "5-3": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.0008, "6-1": 0.001, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4188, "draw": 0.2617, "away_win": 0.3195 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4931, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5069, "btts_yes": 0.5363, "btts_no": 0.4637, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2964, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2393 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.86, "GK": 7.08 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brighton vs Crystal Palace. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 8 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Brighton 2W-5D-3L vs Crystal Palace over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Charalampos Kostoulas, Jørgen Strand Larsen", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 1.07. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.43, "away_lambda": 1.216, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 5, "home_multiplier": 0.9929, "away_multiplier": 1.0071 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1245, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4188, "draw": 0.2617, "away_win": 0.3195 }, "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4188, "fair_spread": 0.214, "fair_total": 2.646, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.43, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.216, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4931, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5363, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2964, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2393, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.2767, "probability": 0.2417, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jørgen Strand Larsen (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.3292, "probability": 0.2805, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Maxim De Cuyper (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.194, "probability": 0.1763, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.1445, "probability": 0.1345, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.646, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 917, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.7, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4188, "script": "Brighton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.21 goals and fair total 2.65.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Crystal Palace must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brighton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Crystal Palace chance creation leans on Jørgen Strand Larsen against Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Charalampos Kostoulas; bench watchlist: Yankuba Minteh, Zadok Yohanna.", "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through Jørgen Strand Larsen; bench watchlist: Ismaïla Sarr, Óscar Mingueza, Zavier Gozo.", "Assist usage should flow through Maxim De Cuyper, Adam Wharton; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brighton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.32 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Crystal Palace is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brighton.", "Crystal Palace wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brighton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "player_id": 1416535, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2767, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3077, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0673, "finishing_factor": 1.2172, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0083, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1825, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.39, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4335, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.169, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1765, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1867, "expected_assists": 0.0847, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.1821, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0997, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3996, "combined_rank_score": 1977.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 3256.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7879, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ayrton Costa", "ranking": 3991 }, { "player_name": "Carreira", "ranking": 3992 }, { "player_name": "Valera", "ranking": 3993 }, { "player_name": "Mert Müldür", "ranking": 3994 }, { "player_name": "Tim Ream", "ranking": 3995 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Junior Sornoza", "ranking": 3997 }, { "player_name": "Tai Baribo", "ranking": 3998 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Echeverri", "ranking": 3999 }, { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0136, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 106.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.55, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 27 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2467, "goals": 0.3134, "goal_rate": 0.3134, "shots_on_target": 0.7136, "total_shots": 2.0769, "expected_assists": 0.0621, "key_pass": 0.7452, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.3634, "accurate_pass": 12.9578, "duels_won": 4.545, "total_long_balls": 0.978, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4716, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1397, "crosses_total": 0.6261, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 35.786, "possession_lost": 11.8832, "dispossessed": 1.8088, "duels_lost": 7.6021, "aerial_lost": 2.2021, "total_contest": 3.0385, "won_contest": 0.9856, "ball_recovery": 3.518, "challenges_lost": 0.6216, "fouls": 1.0762, "fouls_drawn": 1.1039, "assists": 0.2709, "assist_rate": 0.2709, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7061, "tackles": 1.2868, "clearances": 1.7652, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0833, "big_chances_missed": 0.4936, "xgot": 0.2741, "offsides": 0.702, "ball_carries": 9.9299, "total_progression": 32.7138, "progressive_carries": 1.6384, "shots_off_target": 1.3633 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.0249, "expectedGoals": 0.1703, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.2743, "accuratePass": 9.2445, "totalShots": 1.9026 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.24666956067085266, "model_output": 0.2467, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": 0.0054, "total": 0.2467, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.288401 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.055525 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.044191 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.040208 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.03677 } ], "others_margin": 0.022123 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.313395619392395, "model_output": 0.3134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 0.3134, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.292416 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.082603 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.050366 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.03583 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.033762 } ], "others_margin": 0.038256 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7135838866233826, "model_output": 0.7136, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1611 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0295 } ], "others": 0.0138, "total": 0.7136, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.26213 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.064836 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.058294 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.049522 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041345 } ], "others_margin": 0.019328 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.076890468597412, "model_output": 2.0769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1278 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.03 } ], "others": 0.0514, "total": 2.0769, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.488794 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.127761 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.041984 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.036914 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.029954 } ], "others_margin": 0.05147 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.062113575637340546, "model_output": 0.0621, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0094, "total": 0.0621, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.262211 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.119314 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.039142 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.035665 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032812 } ], "others_margin": -0.139888 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7451854348182678, "model_output": 0.7452, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2008 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0331 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 0.7452, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.261032 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065775 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05614 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.04325 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.041844 } ], "others_margin": -0.039182 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.787877559661865, "model_output": 6.7879, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 6.7879, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049612 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.016603 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016513 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015215 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014534 } ], "others_margin": 0.000921 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.25, "goals": 0.3177, "goal_rate": 0.3177, "shots_on_target": 0.7233, "total_shots": 2.1051, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6346, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0908, "fouls_drawn": 1.1189, "assists": 0.2746, "assist_rate": 0.2746, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7157, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5003, "xgot": 0.2778, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.3818 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.25, "goals": 0.3151, "goal_rate": 0.3151, "shots_on_target": 0.7233, "total_shots": 2.1057, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assists": 0.2724, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5003, "xgot": 0.2778, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.3818 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0081, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8567, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1189, "after": 1.1098 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7157, "after": 0.7099 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.25, "goals": 0.3151, "goal_rate": 0.3151, "shots_on_target": 0.7233, "total_shots": 2.1057, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assists": 0.2724, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5003, "xgot": 0.2778, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.3818 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2502, "goals": 0.3154, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "shots_on_target": 0.724, "total_shots": 2.1076, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assists": 0.2724, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5008, "xgot": 0.2781, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.383, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "skill_edge": 0.0126, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.7957, "defender_skill": 0.7676, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "market_value": 25000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7411 } ], "xg_override": 0.2502 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2502, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.724, "total_shots": 2.1076, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5008, "xgot": 0.2781, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.383, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2767, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.724, "total_shots": 2.1076, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5008, "xgot": 0.3077, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.383, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2172, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2502, "after": 0.2767 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.063, "after": 0.0697 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2767, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.724, "total_shots": 2.1076, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5008, "xgot": 0.3077, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.383, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2172, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3996, "fifa_rank": 3256.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2767, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.724, "total_shots": 2.1076, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5008, "xgot": 0.3077, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.383, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2172, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2417, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "scorer_weight": 0.3368, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.2133, "finishing_factor": 1.2172, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2767, "goal_rate": 0.3154, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.724, "total_shots": 2.1076, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 0.7553, "rating": 6.7879, "minutes": 77.1, "total_pass": 17.5995, "accurate_pass": 13.134, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 0.9913, "accurate_long_balls": 0.478, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2504, "crosses_total": 0.6352, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.2727, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 1.8334, "duels_lost": 7.7055, "aerial_lost": 2.232, "total_contest": 3.0798, "won_contest": 0.999, "ball_recovery": 3.5658, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 1.0877, "fouls_drawn": 1.1098, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7099, "tackles": 1.3043, "clearances": 1.7892, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0844, "big_chances_missed": 0.5008, "xgot": 0.3077, "offsides": 0.7115, "ball_carries": 10.0649, "total_progression": 33.1587, "progressive_carries": 1.6607, "shots_off_target": 1.383, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0673, "finishing_factor": 1.2172, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0673, "assist_rate": 0.2724, "provider_weight": 0.0871, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0878, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Maxim De Cuyper": { "player_id": 997152, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 183, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1877, "expected_assists": 0.194, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.2296, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1711, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1763, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2493, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "expected_assists": 0.2312, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0303, "expected_assists": 0.0365, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1392, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.4668, "expected_assists": 0.2115, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.179, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0913, "expected_assists": 0.5007, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 9.5, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 1.1414, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1421, "combined_rank_score": 589.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 68.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1111.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8012, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Maxim De Cuyper", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Seong-jun Min", "ranking": 1416 }, { "player_name": "Martin Baturina", "ranking": 1417 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Buendía", "ranking": 1418 }, { "player_name": "Santi Cazorla", "ranking": 1419 }, { "player_name": "Mattéo Guendouzi", "ranking": 1420 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denis Zakaria", "ranking": 1422 }, { "player_name": "Oleg Zoteev", "ranking": 1423 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Ochilov", "ranking": 1424 }, { "player_name": "Aleix Febas", "ranking": 1425 }, { "player_name": "Seong-uh Park", "ranking": 1426 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0075, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 167.0, "goals_per90": 0.5263157894736842, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.69, "shots_on_target_pct": 20.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5263157894736842, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7634, "tackles": 1.7347, "tackles_won": 1.0316, "clearances": 2.0432, "aerial_won": 0.682, "total_shots": 0.814, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.1157, "accurate_pass": 29.3726, "duels_won": 2.5109, "total_long_balls": 2.4287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1441, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6654, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4351, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4503, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9376, "crosses_total": 4.3216, "crosses_accurate": 1.7671, "touches": 50.6969, "possession_lost": 9.9107, "dispossessed": 0.4548, "duels_lost": 2.994, "aerial_lost": 0.5886, "total_contest": 0.9611, "won_contest": 0.3729, "ball_recovery": 3.7123, "challenges_lost": 0.4623, "fouls": 0.9002, "fouls_drawn": 0.7375, "blocks": 0.0097, "goals": 0.2352, "goal_rate": 0.2352, "assists": 0.2891, "assist_rate": 0.2891, "expected_goals": 0.1683, "expected_assists": 0.1741, "shots_on_target": 0.2785, "big_chances_created": 0.5047, "xgot": 0.206, "ball_carries": 14.9667, "total_progression": 46.9039, "progressive_carries": 0.7201, "key_pass": 1.8968, "shots_off_target": 0.5355 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 9.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.1552, "aerialWon": 0.1309, "totalClearance_p90": 3.417, "totalTackle": 1.2126, "defensive_actions": 1.6631 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7633523941040039, "model_output": 0.7634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0989 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0956 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0273 } ], "others": 0.0018, "total": 0.7634, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.122051 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118242 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.043235 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.040278 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035264 } ], "others_margin": 0.002358 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.7347387075424194, "model_output": 1.7347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1968 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.1018 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0879 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0501 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 1.7347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132306 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.06215 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.050692 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.028017 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027759 } ], "others_margin": -0.024936 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.0315687656402588, "model_output": 1.0316, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1202 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0477 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": 0.0636, "total": 1.0316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131703 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.047826 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.047086 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.037518 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.030154 } ], "others_margin": 0.063631 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.0432233810424805, "model_output": 2.0432, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8401 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3508 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2963 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2297 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1591 } ], "others": -0.2151, "total": 2.0432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.280676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126888 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.106093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.090751 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.068075 } ], "others_margin": -0.100121 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6819831728935242, "model_output": 0.682, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5455 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0946 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0928 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0334 } ], "others": -0.0609, "total": 0.682, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.504295 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.120671 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118606 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.066842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043994 } ], "others_margin": -0.085689 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8140024542808533, "model_output": 0.814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1654 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": 0.039, "total": 0.814, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.165381 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062257 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031461 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024141 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.017203 } ], "others_margin": 0.03906 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.801245212554932, "model_output": 6.8012, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0603, "total": 6.8012, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.044893 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018856 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018851 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018067 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.013775 } ], "others_margin": -0.060198 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0393, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8201, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.354, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.907, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.0098, "goals": 0.237, "goal_rate": 0.237, "assists": 0.2913, "assist_rate": 0.2913, "expected_goals": 0.1696, "expected_assists": 0.1754, "shots_on_target": 0.2806, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2075, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0100)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goals": 0.2392, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "assists": 0.2884, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "expected_goals": 0.1696, "expected_assists": 0.1754, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2075, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.01, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8724, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.354, "after": 4.3702 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8201, "after": 0.8354 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.907, "after": 0.9163 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.743, "after": 0.7355 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goals": 0.2392, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "assists": 0.2884, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "expected_goals": 0.1696, "expected_assists": 0.1754, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2075, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goals": 0.2392, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "assists": 0.2884, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "expected_goals": 0.1696, "expected_assists": 0.1754, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2075, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1696, "expected_assists": 0.1754, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2075, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1877, "expected_assists": 0.194, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2296, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1696, "after": 0.1877 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1754, "after": 0.194 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1877, "expected_assists": 0.194, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2296, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1421, "fifa_rank": 1111.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1877, "expected_assists": 0.194, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2296, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1711, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1711, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "scorer_weight": 0.2346, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.1486, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7706, "tackles": 1.7477, "tackles_won": 1.0427, "clearances": 2.0585, "aerial_won": 0.6871, "total_shots": 0.8354, "rating": 6.8012, "minutes": 78.52, "total_pass": 34.3716, "accurate_pass": 29.5929, "duels_won": 2.5297, "total_long_balls": 2.4469, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1527, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5284, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0646, "crosses_total": 4.3702, "crosses_accurate": 1.7804, "touches": 51.0771, "possession_lost": 9.985, "dispossessed": 0.4582, "duels_lost": 3.0165, "aerial_lost": 0.593, "total_contest": 0.9683, "won_contest": 0.3757, "ball_recovery": 3.7401, "challenges_lost": 0.4658, "fouls": 0.9163, "fouls_drawn": 0.7355, "blocks": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1877, "expected_assists": 0.194, "shots_on_target": 0.2825, "big_chances_created": 0.5085, "xgot": 0.2296, "ball_carries": 15.079, "total_progression": 47.2557, "progressive_carries": 0.7255, "key_pass": 1.911, "shots_off_target": 0.5395, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642, "opponent_faced": "Quinten Timber", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1711, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1763, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1763, "assist_rate": 0.2884, "provider_weight": 0.2425, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.2443, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Yasin Ayari": { "player_id": 1036269, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 172, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.055, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1653, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1611, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1524, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0711, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8997, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1192, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1056, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3134, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.165, "expected_assists": 0.037, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1115, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0917, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1829, "combined_rank_score": 706.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 535.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8286, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 877.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8241, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yasin Ayari", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Mavropanos", "ranking": 1824 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Tagliafico", "ranking": 1825 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Soto", "ranking": 1826 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Seong-jin", "ranking": 1827 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Boyomo", "ranking": 1828 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fernando Ovelar", "ranking": 1830 }, { "player_name": "Diego Sanhueza", "ranking": 1831 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Astudillo", "ranking": 1832 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Rongier", "ranking": 1833 }, { "player_name": "Geny Catamo", "ranking": 1834 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.757, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0108, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 63.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.86, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.05, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7262, "expected_assists": 0.066, "assists": 0.0546, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "expected_goals": 0.1478, "goals": 0.1154, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "shots_on_target": 0.4543, "total_shots": 1.4494, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 36.7668, "accurate_pass": 31.6375, "duels_won": 3.303, "total_long_balls": 2.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5729, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6773, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7904, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8472, "crosses_total": 0.4641, "crosses_accurate": 0.0219, "touches": 49.5414, "possession_lost": 8.5669, "dispossessed": 0.6851, "duels_lost": 4.2119, "aerial_won": 0.4157, "aerial_lost": 1.5554, "interceptions": 0.6595, "tackles_won": 0.5496, "tackles": 1.1598, "clearances": 0.8943, "total_contest": 1.6104, "won_contest": 0.6543, "challenges_lost": 0.4655, "fouls": 0.5716, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.0304, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.144, "ball_carries": 14.0638, "total_progression": 31.5863, "progressive_carries": 0.7073, "shots_off_target": 0.9951 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.6085, "creative_index": 0.2023, "expectedGoals": 0.1103, "expectedAssists": 0.0304, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.361 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7261708378791809, "model_output": 0.7262, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1204 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0951 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0807 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 0.7262, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12647 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.098526 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.091941 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.075862 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.034638 } ], "others_margin": -0.032285 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06597898155450821, "model_output": 0.066, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0068, "total": 0.066, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.166501 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136102 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.123791 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.050879 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.042374 } ], "others_margin": -0.098123 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.05462964251637459, "model_output": 0.0546, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 0.0546, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.164851 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.086487 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.084411 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.080325 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055116 } ], "others_margin": -0.16989 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.14782492816448212, "model_output": 0.1478, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 0.1478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.239149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.152244 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121948 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.099385 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.02034 } ], "others_margin": 0.015304 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11536608636379242, "model_output": 0.1154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.1154, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.265331 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.172092 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101274 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.066164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.041671 } ], "others_margin": -0.137045 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.45427826046943665, "model_output": 0.4543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0846 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 0.4543, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.230821 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142024 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.092439 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08343 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.02386 } ], "others_margin": -0.025351 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.449423909187317, "model_output": 1.4494, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3966 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1559 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.02 } ], "others": -0.0527, "total": 1.4494, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.396628 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15586 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042822 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.023087 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.020035 } ], "others_margin": -0.052724 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.824071407318115, "model_output": 6.8241, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0192, "total": 6.8241, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030853 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017528 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008673 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007378 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.007079 } ], "others_margin": -0.019179 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0108, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "assists": 0.0552, "assist_rate": 0.0552, "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.1166, "goal_rate": 0.1166, "shots_on_target": 0.4592, "total_shots": 1.4651, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4691, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.6666, "tackles_won": 0.5555, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5778, "fouls_drawn": 1.0847, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1456, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0108, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "assists": 0.055, "assist_rate": 0.055, "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.1161, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1456, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0039, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9607, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5778, "after": 0.5862 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "assists": 0.055, "assist_rate": 0.055, "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.1161, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1456, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "assists": 0.055, "assist_rate": 0.055, "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.1161, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1456, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "assist_rate": 0.055, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1456, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.055, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1653, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1611, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8997 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1494, "after": 0.1653 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0667, "after": 0.0738 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.055, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1653, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1611, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8997, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1829, "fifa_rank": 877.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.055, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1653, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1611, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1524, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8997, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "scorer_weight": 0.1377, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0872, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.734, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.055, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1653, "goal_rate": 0.1161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4574, "total_shots": 1.4701, "rating": 6.8241, "minutes": 86.46, "total_pass": 37.1639, "accurate_pass": 31.9792, "duels_won": 3.3387, "total_long_balls": 2.3669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5899, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9501, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0291, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0221, "touches": 50.0764, "possession_lost": 8.6594, "dispossessed": 0.6925, "duels_lost": 4.2574, "aerial_won": 0.4202, "aerial_lost": 1.5722, "interceptions": 0.664, "tackles_won": 0.5533, "tackles": 1.1723, "clearances": 0.904, "total_contest": 1.6278, "won_contest": 0.6614, "challenges_lost": 0.4705, "fouls": 0.5862, "fouls_drawn": 1.0858, "blocks": 0.1229, "big_chances_created": 0.0307, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1611, "ball_carries": 14.2157, "total_progression": 31.9274, "progressive_carries": 0.7149, "shots_off_target": 1.0058, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1524, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0711, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 0.8997, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0711, "assist_rate": 0.055, "provider_weight": 0.0664, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0669, "creation_factor": 0.8997, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Diego Gómez": { "player_id": 1065588, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 185, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0978, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.202, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1654, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1829, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0932, "finishing_factor": 1.1513, "creation_factor": 1.1676, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2271, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1363, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0882, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3792, "expected_assists": 0.1675, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1838, "expected_assists": 0.4817, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2787, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6453, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "expected_assists": 0.1108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1631, "combined_rank_score": 660.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1122.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9672, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Gómez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cristian Avram", "ranking": 1626 }, { "player_name": "Vykintas Slivka", "ranking": 1627 }, { "player_name": "Roméo Lavia", "ranking": 1628 }, { "player_name": "Ezequiel Cañete", "ranking": 1629 }, { "player_name": "Yu-chan Lee", "ranking": 1630 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ozan Kabak", "ranking": 1632 }, { "player_name": "Fausto Grillo", "ranking": 1633 }, { "player_name": "Sherzod Fayziev", "ranking": 1634 }, { "player_name": "Destiny Udogie", "ranking": 1635 }, { "player_name": "Jae-yul Yeo", "ranking": 1636 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0079, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 175.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5263157894736842, "shots_per90": 4.11, "shots_on_target_pct": 37.5, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5263157894736842)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9937, "expected_assists": 0.0877, "assists": 0.1073, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "expected_goals": 0.1812, "goals": 0.2182, "goal_rate": 0.2182, "shots_on_target": 0.6274, "total_shots": 1.897, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.0513, "accurate_pass": 20.2571, "duels_won": 6.9955, "total_long_balls": 1.6327, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7102, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5772, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6799, "crosses_total": 1.4252, "crosses_accurate": 0.3568, "touches": 46.3016, "possession_lost": 13.2591, "dispossessed": 1.2608, "duels_lost": 7.5227, "aerial_won": 3.4369, "aerial_lost": 2.7531, "interceptions": 0.8595, "tackles_won": 1.5879, "tackles": 2.9327, "clearances": 1.1378, "total_contest": 1.6329, "won_contest": 0.5057, "challenges_lost": 1.0995, "fouls": 1.2915, "fouls_drawn": 0.1203, "blocks": 0.0542, "big_chances_created": 0.2086, "big_chances_missed": 0.3737, "xgot": 0.1483, "ball_carries": 11.3209, "total_progression": 50.447, "progressive_carries": 1.7352, "shots_off_target": 1.2696 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.376, "creative_index": 0.423, "expectedGoals": 0.1817, "expectedAssists": 0.081, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6886 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9936776161193848, "model_output": 0.9937, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1154 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0341 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.9937, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121549 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.044656 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.042814 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.039326 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.03466 } ], "others_margin": -0.008194 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08769603073596954, "model_output": 0.0877, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": 0.0046, "total": 0.0877, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.151351 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.085273 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.043046 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.042613 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035373 } ], "others_margin": 0.053994 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.10727336257696152, "model_output": 0.1073, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.1073, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.076687 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.075945 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.060677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058618 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.051663 } ], "others_margin": -0.116893 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.18115538358688354, "model_output": 0.1812, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": 0.0084, "total": 0.1812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.274904 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.174388 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081563 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.029911 } ], "others_margin": 0.046962 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.21821291744709015, "model_output": 0.2182, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.021, "total": 0.2182, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.429884 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.159127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.094603 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.09431 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.076758 } ], "others_margin": 0.101498 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6273687481880188, "model_output": 0.6274, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1021 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0745 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0773 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 0.6274, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.272551 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.160555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143095 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.024375 } ], "others_margin": -0.036639 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.8969204425811768, "model_output": 1.8969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6325 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1553 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0645 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.043 } ], "others": -0.0415, "total": 1.8969, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.632483 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.155313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064516 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.047573 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.04304 } ], "others_margin": -0.041539 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.967210292816162, "model_output": 6.9672, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0184, "total": 6.9672, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064577 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039469 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031887 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027662 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011023 } ], "others_margin": 0.018476 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0884, "assists": 0.1081, "assist_rate": 0.1081, "expected_goals": 0.1826, "goals": 0.2199, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "shots_on_target": 0.6323, "total_shots": 1.912, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.4365, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8663, "tackles_won": 1.6004, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.3017, "fouls_drawn": 0.1213, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1495, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0079, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0884, "assists": 0.1116, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "expected_goals": 0.1826, "goals": 0.2178, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1495, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9051, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.912, "after": 1.9293 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6323, "after": 0.6396 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0884, "assists": 0.1116, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "expected_goals": 0.1826, "goals": 0.2178, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1495, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0884, "assists": 0.1116, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "expected_goals": 0.1826, "goals": 0.2178, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1495, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0884, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1826, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1495, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0978, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.202, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1654, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1513, "creation_factor": 1.1676 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1826, "after": 0.202 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0884, "after": 0.0978 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0978, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.202, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1654, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1513, "creation_factor": 1.1676, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1631, "fifa_rank": 1122.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0978, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.202, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1654, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1829, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1513, "creation_factor": 1.1676, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1829, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "scorer_weight": 0.2326, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.1473, "finishing_factor": 1.1513, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0978, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.202, "goal_rate": 0.2178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.9293, "rating": 6.9672, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 28.2729, "accurate_pass": 20.4171, "duels_won": 7.0508, "total_long_balls": 1.6456, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7158, "total_own_half_passes": 7.839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6292, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.788, "crosses_total": 1.441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3596, "touches": 46.6674, "possession_lost": 13.3638, "dispossessed": 1.2708, "duels_lost": 7.5821, "aerial_won": 3.4641, "aerial_lost": 2.7748, "interceptions": 0.8671, "tackles_won": 1.6033, "tackles": 2.9559, "clearances": 1.1468, "total_contest": 1.6458, "won_contest": 0.5097, "challenges_lost": 1.1082, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.1201, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.2102, "big_chances_missed": 0.3767, "xgot": 0.1654, "ball_carries": 11.4103, "total_progression": 50.8455, "progressive_carries": 1.7489, "shots_off_target": 1.2796, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1829, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0932, "finishing_factor": 1.1513, "creation_factor": 1.1676, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0932, "assist_rate": 0.1116, "provider_weight": 0.1142, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.115, "creation_factor": 1.1676, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Chema Andrés": { "player_id": 1464641, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 193, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.322, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0939, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.06, "finishing_factor": 0.9454, "creation_factor": 1.1294, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2426, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 75, "combined_rank_score": 78.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 74.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8289, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chema Andrés", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 }, { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking": 76 }, { "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking": 77 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "ranking": 78 }, { "player_name": "Thibaut Courtois", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Otávio Costa", "ranking": 80 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.029, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6542, "expected_assists": 0.0543, "assists": 0.0676, "assist_rate": 0.0676, "expected_goals": 0.094, "goals": 0.086, "goal_rate": 0.086, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 1.063, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.0029, "accurate_pass": 22.9601, "duels_won": 3.38, "total_long_balls": 2.1662, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1079, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0923, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6948, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.6569, "possession_lost": 7.7619, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5705, "aerial_won": 1.9329, "aerial_lost": 1.5121, "interceptions": 1.0496, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6696, "clearances": 0.5617, "total_contest": 0.3887, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6696, "fouls": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7775, "blocks": 0.3887, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3071, "ball_carries": 6.0564, "total_progression": 21.7626, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "shots_off_target": 0.7556 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9417, "creative_index": 0.1369, "expectedGoals": 0.1593, "expectedAssists": 0.041, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3304 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6541820764541626, "model_output": 0.6542, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1417 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1007 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": -0.0983, "total": 0.6542, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147289 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.121067 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.116354 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.040877 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.040179 } ], "others_margin": -0.139992 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05430850014090538, "model_output": 0.0543, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": 0.0543, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.199011 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14672 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.126099 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.107613 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.094507 } ], "others_margin": -0.074964 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06764169037342072, "model_output": 0.0676, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.0676, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.135624 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.111431 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.083931 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.079812 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.05978 } ], "others_margin": -0.166365 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09399601072072983, "model_output": 0.094, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 0.094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.233232 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.118047 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.090525 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.086397 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.039634 } ], "others_margin": -0.082855 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08600280433893204, "model_output": 0.086, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0031, "total": 0.086, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.173344 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.148188 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.128028 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.091151 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.080425 } ], "others_margin": -0.036283 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30736568570137024, "model_output": 0.3074, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 0.3074, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.137412 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.136733 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133032 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.058136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054282 } ], "others_margin": -0.079322 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0629189014434814, "model_output": 1.0629, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1521 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0762 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0344 } ], "others": -0.0512, "total": 1.0629, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15211 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.076231 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.039285 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.037831 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03441 } ], "others_margin": -0.051201 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.828877925872803, "model_output": 6.8289, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0682, "total": 6.8289, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.064023 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.022176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016789 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012911 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012481 } ], "others_margin": -0.068196 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0290, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.0885, "shots_on_target": 0.3163, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.989, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.316, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.7775 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.0885, "shots_on_target": 0.3163, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.989, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.316, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.7775 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goals": 0.0815, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 1.0073, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.291, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.716, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "skill_edge": -0.0978, "height_edge": 0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.6704, "defender_skill": 0.8877, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "market_value": 79000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8877 } ], "xg_override": 0.0891 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.989, "after": 1.4 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0938, "after": 1.0073 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7775, "after": 0.716 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3163, "after": 0.2913 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.316, "after": 0.291 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0967, "after": 0.0891 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0885, "after": 0.0815 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 1.0073, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.291, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.716, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 1.0073, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.322, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.716, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9454, "creation_factor": 1.1294 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0891, "after": 0.0986 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0559, "after": 0.0619 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 1.0073, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.322, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.716, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9454, "creation_factor": 1.1294, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 75, "fifa_rank": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 1.0073, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.322, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.716, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0939, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9454, "creation_factor": 1.1294, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0939, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "scorer_weight": 0.0932, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.059, "finishing_factor": 0.9454, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6732, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 1.0073, "rating": 6.8289, "minutes": 86.85, "total_pass": 30.873, "accurate_pass": 23.6259, "duels_won": 3.478, "total_long_balls": 2.229, "accurate_long_balls": 1.14, "total_own_half_passes": 13.694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.385, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.778, "possession_lost": 7.987, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.703, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.556, "interceptions": 1.08, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.689, "clearances": 0.578, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.689, "fouls": 2.058, "fouls_drawn": 0.8, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.322, "ball_carries": 6.232, "total_progression": 22.3937, "progressive_carries": 0.4, "shots_off_target": 0.716, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0939, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.06, "finishing_factor": 0.9454, "creation_factor": 1.1294, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.06, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "provider_weight": 0.0699, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0704, "creation_factor": 1.1294, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Pascal Groß": { "player_id": 48480, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 181, "market_value": 2300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1933, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 75, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1182, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1758, "finishing_factor": 1.1711, "creation_factor": 0.9951, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2472, "expected_assists": 0.193, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1074, "expected_assists": 0.2506, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.8227, "expected_assists": 0.1883, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 93, "accurate_pass": 87, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7936, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0529, "expected_assists": 0.1094, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2684, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 72, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1146, "expected_assists": 0.15, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 49, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.485, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2306, "expected_assists": 0.1685, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 63, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1847, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1101, "combined_rank_score": 493.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 849.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2791, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pascal Groß", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Víctor Muñoz", "ranking": 1096 }, { "player_name": "Merih Demiral", "ranking": 1097 }, { "player_name": "César Azpilicueta", "ranking": 1098 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Mirzayev", "ranking": 1099 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadkodir Khamraliev", "ranking": 1100 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alberto Moleiro", "ranking": 1102 }, { "player_name": "Angelo Stiller", "ranking": 1103 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Júnior", "ranking": 1104 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Tzolakis", "ranking": 1105 }, { "player_name": "Pau Torres", "ranking": 1106 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9966, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 25 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0947, "expected_assists": 0.1753, "assists": 0.1767, "assist_rate": 0.1767, "expected_goals": 0.1894, "goals": 0.2297, "goal_rate": 0.2297, "shots_on_target": 0.568, "total_shots": 1.5314, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.8, "accurate_pass": 49.474, "duels_won": 2.8901, "total_long_balls": 5.2181, "accurate_long_balls": 2.346, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9632, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3801, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0939, "crosses_total": 6.0347, "crosses_accurate": 1.727, "touches": 75.5648, "possession_lost": 14.7029, "dispossessed": 0.506, "duels_lost": 4.5071, "aerial_won": 0.7399, "aerial_lost": 0.9896, "interceptions": 0.6376, "tackles_won": 0.9795, "tackles": 1.9319, "clearances": 1.2755, "total_contest": 0.3793, "won_contest": 0.0951, "challenges_lost": 1.2912, "fouls": 1.6804, "fouls_drawn": 0.1233, "blocks": 0.1267, "big_chances_created": 0.8268, "big_chances_missed": 0.0985, "xgot": 0.1482, "ball_carries": 21.8562, "total_progression": 78.1424, "progressive_carries": 0.9054, "shots_off_target": 0.9634 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.5893, "creative_index": 1.1866, "expectedGoals": 0.2529, "expectedAssists": 0.1936, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.5772 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.0946860313415527, "model_output": 2.0947, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1943 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1425 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1437 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1457 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0843 } ], "others": 0.4912, "total": 2.0947, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.196827 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12316 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.11051 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.100802 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.054019 } ], "others_margin": 0.267274 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1753430813550949, "model_output": 0.1753, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": 0.034, "total": 0.1753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.150069 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.128777 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109344 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.073274 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.039193 } ], "others_margin": 0.215933 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.17668017745018005, "model_output": 0.1767, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0321, "total": 0.1767, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.14305 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.105051 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.095199 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.082758 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.079542 } ], "others_margin": 0.200059 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.18937882781028748, "model_output": 0.1894, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0038, "total": 0.1894, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.448761 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.159122 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054616 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.041239 } ], "others_margin": -0.020016 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22965173423290253, "model_output": 0.2297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0299, "total": 0.2297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.317392 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.215686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.076928 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.056577 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.04823 } ], "others_margin": 0.138943 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5679639577865601, "model_output": 0.568, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0871 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0967 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": 0.0493, "total": 0.568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.237047 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.210406 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104518 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052232 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034242 } ], "others_margin": 0.090495 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5313301086425781, "model_output": 1.5313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3308 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1514 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0953 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0442 } ], "others": -0.0492, "total": 1.5313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.330753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151373 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.095349 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.051681 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.044246 } ], "others_margin": -0.049116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.279136657714844, "model_output": 7.2791, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1234 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1041 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0241 } ], "others": 0.1141, "total": 7.2791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.123428 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.104085 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030832 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029548 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024068 } ], "others_margin": 0.114119 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9966, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assists": 0.1761, "assist_rate": 0.1761, "expected_goals": 0.1887, "goals": 0.2289, "goal_rate": 0.2289, "shots_on_target": 0.566, "total_shots": 1.5262, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0142, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 0.7374, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6354, "tackles_won": 0.9762, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6747, "fouls_drawn": 0.1229, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.0982, "xgot": 0.1477, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.9601 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9966, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assists": 0.1736, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "expected_goals": 0.1887, "goals": 0.2328, "goal_rate": 0.2328, "shots_on_target": 0.565, "total_shots": 1.5114, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 0.7374, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.0982, "xgot": 0.1477, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.9601 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9964, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 6.0142, "after": 6.0569 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5262, "after": 1.5114 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6354, "after": 0.6262 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assists": 0.1736, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "expected_goals": 0.1887, "goals": 0.2328, "goal_rate": 0.2328, "shots_on_target": 0.565, "total_shots": 1.5251, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 0.7374, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.0982, "xgot": 0.1477, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.9601 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assists": 0.1736, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "expected_goals": 0.1364, "goals": 0.1683, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "shots_on_target": 0.4084, "total_shots": 1.1025, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.071, "xgot": 0.1068, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.6941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "skill_edge": -0.1605, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.7941, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 } ], "xg_override": 0.1364 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5251, "after": 1.1025 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7374, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9601, "after": 0.6941 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.565, "after": 0.4084 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2328, "after": 0.1683 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1887, "after": 0.1364 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1477, "after": 0.1068 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0982, "after": 0.071 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1364, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4084, "total_shots": 1.1025, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.071, "xgot": 0.1068, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.6941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1933, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4084, "total_shots": 1.1025, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.071, "xgot": 0.1182, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.6941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1711, "creation_factor": 0.9951 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1364, "after": 0.1509 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1747, "after": 0.1933 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1933, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4084, "total_shots": 1.1025, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.071, "xgot": 0.1182, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.6941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1711, "creation_factor": 0.9951, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1101, "fifa_rank": 849.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1933, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4084, "total_shots": 1.1025, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.071, "xgot": 0.1182, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.6941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1711, "creation_factor": 0.9951, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "scorer_weight": 0.1767, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.1119, "finishing_factor": 1.1711, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0876, "expected_assists": 0.1933, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4084, "total_shots": 1.1025, "rating": 7.2791, "minutes": 89.68, "total_pass": 57.6035, "accurate_pass": 49.3058, "duels_won": 2.8803, "total_long_balls": 5.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 2.338, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3108, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.995, "crosses_total": 6.0569, "crosses_accurate": 1.7211, "touches": 75.3079, "possession_lost": 14.6529, "dispossessed": 0.5043, "duels_lost": 4.4918, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9862, "interceptions": 0.6262, "tackles_won": 0.9765, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 1.2712, "total_contest": 0.378, "won_contest": 0.0948, "challenges_lost": 1.2868, "fouls": 1.6721, "fouls_drawn": 0.1211, "blocks": 0.1263, "big_chances_created": 0.824, "big_chances_missed": 0.071, "xgot": 0.1182, "ball_carries": 21.7819, "total_progression": 77.8767, "progressive_carries": 0.9023, "shots_off_target": 0.6941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1758, "finishing_factor": 1.1711, "creation_factor": 0.9951, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1758, "assist_rate": 0.1736, "provider_weight": 0.1924, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.1938, "creation_factor": 0.9951, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Olivier Boscagli": { "player_id": 788784, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 18500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 30, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 77, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 70, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0079, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0803, "finishing_factor": 0.8757, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0096, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0115, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3273, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 5, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0711, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 93, "accurate_pass": 79, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 75, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 65, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 6, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1548, "combined_rank_score": 631.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 172.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.25, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1090.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.981, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Olivier Boscagli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nam Ha", "ranking": 1543 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Salimov", "ranking": 1544 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 1545 }, { "player_name": "Her Dong-min", "ranking": 1546 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jørgensen", "ranking": 1547 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bernd Leno", "ranking": 1549 }, { "player_name": "Fredrik Aursnes", "ranking": 1550 }, { "player_name": "Yuri Berchiche", "ranking": 1551 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Trejo", "ranking": 1552 }, { "player_name": "Han Jong-Mu", "ranking": 1553 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 18, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0072, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 18 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1242, "tackles": 1.3334, "tackles_won": 0.8249, "clearances": 3.3835, "aerial_won": 1.252, "total_shots": 0.5873, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.4504, "accurate_pass": 49.04, "duels_won": 3.9352, "total_long_balls": 7.1871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7218, "total_own_half_passes": 28.5699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.8804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7096, "crosses_total": 2.9462, "crosses_accurate": 0.8166, "touches": 76.1079, "possession_lost": 12.883, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6415, "aerial_lost": 1.6361, "total_contest": 0.0599, "won_contest": 0.0599, "ball_recovery": 3.6086, "challenges_lost": 0.7366, "fouls": 1.2688, "fouls_drawn": 1.3152, "blocks": 0.1677, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0234, "assist_rate": 0.0234, "expected_goals": 0.007, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "shots_on_target": 0.0858, "big_chances_created": 0.3628, "xgot": 0.036, "ball_carries": 18.7788, "total_progression": 69.4395, "progressive_carries": 0.8037, "key_pass": 0.997, "shots_off_target": 0.5015 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1585, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1347, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1145, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0973, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0827, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0703, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0598, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0508, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0432, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0367, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 18.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.4881, "aerialWon": 1.4749, "totalClearance_p90": 3.8664, "totalTackle": 0.9585, "defensive_actions": 2.4725 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1241848468780518, "model_output": 1.1242, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1215 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0829 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": 0.0373, "total": 1.1242, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131998 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.080982 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.027707 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.018868 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011326 } ], "others_margin": 0.033719 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3334351778030396, "model_output": 1.3334, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1623 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1057 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.061 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0256 } ], "others": -0.0719, "total": 1.3334, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11033 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.070439 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.043029 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.031072 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.018032 } ], "others_margin": -0.05253 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8248859643936157, "model_output": 0.8249, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1047 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0571, "total": 0.8249, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115632 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.064315 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.04691 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.046294 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019995 } ], "others_margin": -0.066819 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.383495569229126, "model_output": 3.3835, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4273 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3315 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.2674 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.165 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1028 } ], "others": -0.1446, "total": 3.3835, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117325 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089784 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.073055 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.044434 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028722 } ], "others_margin": -0.041887 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2519854307174683, "model_output": 1.252, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1611 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1095 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0391 } ], "others": -0.1298, "total": 1.252, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110613 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.073822 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.038092 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.03248 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027891 } ], "others_margin": -0.098692 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5873276591300964, "model_output": 0.5873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0629 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": -0.0027, "total": 0.5873, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062936 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025651 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022381 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021457 } ], "others_margin": -0.002635 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.981004238128662, "model_output": 6.981, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0079, "total": 6.981, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076527 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.039581 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.03166 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020762 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019816 } ], "others_margin": 0.007958 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1323, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.8308, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5916, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9674, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2779, "fouls_drawn": 1.3247, "blocks": 0.1689, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0236, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.0864, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0188)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5893, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0188, "history_matches": 18, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9417, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.9674, "after": 2.9558 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2779, "after": 1.2893 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.0864, "after": 0.0936 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8308, "after": 0.824 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1323, "after": 1.1376 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8757, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0756, "after": 0.0837 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8757, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1548, "fifa_rank": 1090.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0079, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8757, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0079, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0069, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0044, "finishing_factor": 0.8757, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1376, "tackles": 1.343, "tackles_won": 0.824, "clearances": 3.4079, "aerial_won": 1.261, "total_shots": 0.5987, "rating": 6.981, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 58.8712, "accurate_pass": 49.3931, "duels_won": 3.9635, "total_long_balls": 7.2388, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7486, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7756, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5128, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.0955, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.8803, "crosses_total": 2.9558, "crosses_accurate": 0.8225, "touches": 76.6559, "possession_lost": 12.9758, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.6479, "total_contest": 0.0603, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.6346, "challenges_lost": 0.7419, "fouls": 1.2893, "fouls_drawn": 1.3264, "blocks": 0.1689, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "big_chances_created": 0.3654, "xgot": 0.0402, "ball_carries": 18.914, "total_progression": 69.9395, "progressive_carries": 0.8095, "key_pass": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.5051, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0079, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0803, "finishing_factor": 0.8757, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0803, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "provider_weight": 0.067, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0674, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lewis Dunk": { "player_id": 115365, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 190, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 87, "accurate_pass": 80, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 53, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 107, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0524, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0223, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 94, "accurate_pass": 89, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 71, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 99, "accurate_pass": 91, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 114, "accurate_pass": 109, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 80, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2311, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 92, "accurate_pass": 83, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3016, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 103, "accurate_pass": 96, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2485, "combined_rank_score": 897.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 390.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9515, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 1405.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1087, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lewis Dunk", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emmet Shaw", "ranking": 2480 }, { "player_name": "Seung-min Moon", "ranking": 2481 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Balerdi", "ranking": 2482 }, { "player_name": "Zoir Dzhuraboev", "ranking": 2483 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Morton", "ranking": 2484 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luca Tevere", "ranking": 2486 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jun Kim", "ranking": 2487 }, { "player_name": "Akramjon Komilov", "ranking": 2488 }, { "player_name": "Javier Nicolás Cárcamo", "ranking": 2489 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong Baek", "ranking": 2490 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9979, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8547, "tackles": 1.0555, "tackles_won": 0.6846, "clearances": 5.0361, "aerial_won": 2.7605, "total_shots": 0.5574, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.7041, "accurate_pass": 80.2257, "duels_won": 4.637, "total_long_balls": 5.6665, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5778, "total_own_half_passes": 53.2991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.3005, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9252, "crosses_total": 0.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.9354, "possession_lost": 7.3701, "dispossessed": 0.1032, "duels_lost": 3.0077, "aerial_lost": 1.7371, "total_contest": 0.1444, "won_contest": 0.1444, "ball_recovery": 3.814, "challenges_lost": 0.5287, "fouls": 0.6468, "fouls_drawn": 0.5638, "blocks": 0.7528, "goals": 0.2133, "goal_rate": 0.2133, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2524, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0747, "ball_carries": 29.7193, "total_progression": 107.0665, "progressive_carries": 1.1061, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.305 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 9.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.087, "aerialWon": 2.8931, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2917, "totalTackle": 0.7276, "defensive_actions": 1.2258 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8546915054321289, "model_output": 0.8547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1106 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.8547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120861 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.083533 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.030524 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.024744 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.017048 } ], "others_margin": -0.006316 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.055511236190796, "model_output": 1.0555, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1641 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0969 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0405 } ], "others": -0.1539, "total": 1.0555, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111475 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.110119 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.072063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.036624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.0329 } ], "others_margin": -0.136131 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6846312284469604, "model_output": 0.6846, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0963 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0783 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.072 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0481 } ], "others": -0.1409, "total": 0.6846, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106819 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.086021 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.079304 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.077736 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.056675 } ], "others_margin": -0.186936 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.036062717437744, "model_output": 5.0361, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.412 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3991 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2288 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.219 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.186 } ], "others": 0.1585, "total": 5.0361, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11336 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.098753 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05252 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047808 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.038876 } ], "others_margin": 0.031951 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.760512590408325, "model_output": 2.7605, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5712 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2181 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1303 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0959 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0812 } ], "others": 0.2865, "total": 2.7605, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.346954 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106075 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.058398 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.040889 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.033392 } ], "others_margin": 0.109574 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.557384192943573, "model_output": 0.5574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0453 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": 0.0272, "total": 0.5574, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045347 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033421 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.020493 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.014825 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012315 } ], "others_margin": 0.027119 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.108699798583984, "model_output": 7.1087, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0957 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0606 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0436 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0309 } ], "others": 0.058, "total": 7.1087, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.09574 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.060628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.043591 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035211 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030876 } ], "others_margin": 0.057952 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8529, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6832, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5563, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.6454, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "blocks": 0.7512, "goals": 0.2129, "goal_rate": 0.2129, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0486, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5507, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goals": 0.2108, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0486, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6454, "after": 0.654 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2445, "after": 0.2521 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5563, "after": 0.5507 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goals": 0.2108, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0486, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goals": 0.2108, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0486, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0486, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0486, "after": 0.0538 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2485, "fifa_rank": 1405.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0524, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "scorer_weight": 0.0673, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0426, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 1.0533, "tackles_won": 0.6864, "clearances": 5.0255, "aerial_won": 2.7547, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 7.1087, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2521, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.654, "fouls_drawn": 0.567, "blocks": 0.7512, "goal_rate": 0.2108, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.2494, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3044, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0524, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0223, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0181, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0182, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Luka Vušković": { "player_id": 1405212, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 193, "market_value": 69000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 51, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 77, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1503, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1396, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.0721, "creation_factor": 0.8143, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2688, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1104, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.187, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0337, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 95, "accurate_pass": 88, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1268, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 103, "accurate_pass": 98, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 643, "combined_rank_score": 326.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 122.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 530.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8578, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luka Vušković", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nelson Sepúlveda", "ranking": 638 }, { "player_name": "Ratinho", "ranking": 639 }, { "player_name": "Trincão", "ranking": 640 }, { "player_name": "Bilolkhon Toshmirzaev", "ranking": 641 }, { "player_name": "Ibañez", "ranking": 642 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dae-hwan Kim", "ranking": 644 }, { "player_name": "Nelson Guillermo Guaiquil", "ranking": 645 }, { "player_name": "Yoo Ji-Ha", "ranking": 646 }, { "player_name": "Arlind Ajeti", "ranking": 647 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro Bastoni", "ranking": 648 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.645, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.645, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0497, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0577, "tackles": 1.2919, "tackles_won": 0.7857, "clearances": 5.8106, "aerial_won": 3.1584, "total_shots": 1.0078, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 55.9991, "accurate_pass": 48.972, "duels_won": 6.2318, "total_long_balls": 5.9741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6737, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2597, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.1908, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7812, "crosses_total": 0.2958, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 73.6041, "possession_lost": 8.4987, "dispossessed": 0.2997, "duels_lost": 3.9394, "aerial_lost": 1.6851, "total_contest": 0.3887, "won_contest": 0.1479, "ball_recovery": 3.6606, "challenges_lost": 0.5144, "fouls": 1.1993, "fouls_drawn": 1.3247, "blocks": 0.96, "goals": 0.1479, "goal_rate": 0.1479, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1294, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "shots_on_target": 0.1479, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 23.2654, "total_progression": 41.9876, "progressive_carries": 0.6391, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8599 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 7.8147, "aerialWon": 3.5134, "totalClearance_p90": 8.002, "totalTackle": 1.2457, "defensive_actions": 1.7723 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0576688051223755, "model_output": 1.0577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0992 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0738 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0273 } ], "others": 0.0944, "total": 1.0577, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109058 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.074086 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.069527 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.029997 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.028704 } ], "others_margin": 0.093551 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.29194974899292, "model_output": 1.2919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1263 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0636 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0294 } ], "others": -0.0712, "total": 1.2919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.086849 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.042816 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.021792 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.02161 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.021323 } ], "others_margin": -0.053542 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.785742998123169, "model_output": 0.7857, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0786 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0199 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 0.7857, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.088002 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.044885 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.034323 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.025343 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.023922 } ], "others_margin": -0.043025 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.810639381408691, "model_output": 5.8106, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.9395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5382 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3682 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3555 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2413 } ], "others": -0.0648, "total": 5.8106, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.241929 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116085 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.072311 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.065175 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.041937 } ], "others_margin": -0.011103 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.158371686935425, "model_output": 3.1584, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.7686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2652 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2808 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2816 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2481 } ], "others": -0.0632, "total": 3.1584, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.443409 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116537 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.110165 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.099483 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.080126 } ], "others_margin": -0.019799 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0077791213989258, "model_output": 1.0078, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3148 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0499 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0342 } ], "others": 0.1191, "total": 1.0078, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.314767 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049897 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.043674 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.039997 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.034177 } ], "others_margin": 0.119121 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.857821941375732, "model_output": 6.8578, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0056, "total": 6.8578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.027969 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024092 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.021848 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018979 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.01825 } ], "others_margin": 0.005676 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0497, quality 0.869)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1102, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8248, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0579, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.3105, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.2589, "fouls_drawn": 1.3905, "blocks": 1.0077, "goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1553, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "shots_on_target": 0.1553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0318, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 69000000, "quality_factor": 0.8692, "boost_factor": 1.0497, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0318, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0394, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9826, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3905, "after": 1.3357 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1102, "after": 1.0665 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0579, "after": 1.0936 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8248, "after": 0.8117 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3105, "after": 0.2983 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2589, "after": 1.248 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1553, "after": 0.1492 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1553, "after": 0.1492 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0318, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0318, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0318, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1503, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0721, "creation_factor": 0.8143 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1358, "after": 0.1503 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1503, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0721, "creation_factor": 0.8143, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 643, "fifa_rank": 530.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1503, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1396, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0721, "creation_factor": 0.8143, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1396, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "scorer_weight": 0.1611, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.1021, "finishing_factor": 1.0721, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.3562, "tackles_won": 0.8117, "clearances": 6.0994, "aerial_won": 3.3153, "total_shots": 1.0936, "rating": 6.8578, "minutes": 88.43, "total_pass": 58.7823, "accurate_pass": 51.4059, "duels_won": 6.5415, "total_long_balls": 6.271, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8066, "total_own_half_passes": 33.863, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6913, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7146, "crosses_total": 0.2983, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.2622, "possession_lost": 8.9211, "dispossessed": 0.3146, "duels_lost": 4.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.7688, "total_contest": 0.408, "won_contest": 0.1553, "ball_recovery": 3.8425, "challenges_lost": 0.54, "fouls": 1.248, "fouls_drawn": 1.3357, "blocks": 1.0077, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1503, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0352, "ball_carries": 24.4217, "total_progression": 44.0744, "progressive_carries": 0.6709, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9026, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1396, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.0721, "creation_factor": 0.8143, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0103, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0103, "creation_factor": 0.8143, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "player_id": 825844, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 174, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "expected_assists": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0846, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0416, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.075, "finishing_factor": 0.9672, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0449, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 57, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0109, "expected_assists": 0.6592, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2606, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1236, "combined_rank_score": 539.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 404.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9375, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 675.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8046, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Pašalić", "ranking": 1231 }, { "player_name": "Shohruh Gadoev", "ranking": 1232 }, { "player_name": "Matthieu Udol", "ranking": 1233 }, { "player_name": "Harry Sawyer", "ranking": 1234 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Greif", "ranking": 1235 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maghnes Akliouche", "ranking": 1237 }, { "player_name": "Rasmus Kristensen", "ranking": 1238 }, { "player_name": "Robin Risser", "ranking": 1239 }, { "player_name": "Sung-hoon Cho", "ranking": 1240 }, { "player_name": "Oybek Rustamov", "ranking": 1241 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.009, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8365, "tackles": 1.1937, "tackles_won": 0.7163, "clearances": 2.6676, "aerial_won": 0.8259, "total_shots": 0.6711, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 35.9621, "accurate_pass": 31.2306, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 2.5925, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6476, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0554, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1752, "crosses_total": 1.6936, "crosses_accurate": 0.168, "touches": 54.6137, "possession_lost": 9.1024, "dispossessed": 0.1701, "duels_lost": 2.3789, "aerial_lost": 1.03, "total_contest": 0.3991, "won_contest": 0.1925, "ball_recovery": 3.08, "challenges_lost": 0.4247, "fouls": 0.5563, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "blocks": 0.2922, "goals": 0.0352, "goal_rate": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0381, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "shots_on_target": 0.3044, "big_chances_created": 0.1163, "xgot": 0.0758, "ball_carries": 12.1821, "total_progression": 39.8795, "progressive_carries": 1.1163, "key_pass": 0.7422, "shots_off_target": 0.3667 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 9.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.0231, "aerialWon": 0.6292, "totalClearance_p90": 3.1162, "totalTackle": 0.6918, "defensive_actions": 1.4725 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8365152478218079, "model_output": 0.8365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1084 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 0.8365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118615 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.033776 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.031603 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.02353 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.022989 } ], "others_margin": -0.03542 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.193651556968689, "model_output": 1.1937, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1568 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1448 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.1134 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0271 } ], "others": -0.0456, "total": 1.1937, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.119571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110907 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.085767 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.043474 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.022087 } ], "others_margin": -0.037551 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7162871956825256, "model_output": 0.7163, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0957 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0869 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.086 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.7163, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.118822 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108442 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.107308 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.055054 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.021165 } ], "others_margin": -0.024468 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.667646646499634, "model_output": 2.6676, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4495 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3803 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3184 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2372 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0992 } ], "others": -0.1795, "total": 2.6676, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123067 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103094 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.095313 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.077443 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.034234 } ], "others_margin": -0.065143 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8258684277534485, "model_output": 0.8259, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.441 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1171 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0647 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0304 } ], "others": -0.0932, "total": 0.8259, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.385951 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063411 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040431 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.032498 } ], "others_margin": -0.107025 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6711313128471375, "model_output": 0.6711, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1401 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0604 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 0.6711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.140065 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060437 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.015525 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.014678 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010543 } ], "others_margin": 0.005825 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.804598808288574, "model_output": 6.8046, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.006 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": 6.8046, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012673 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.009263 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.008815 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.006043 } ], "others_margin": 0.005238 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0765, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0765, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0765, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0765, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "expected_assists": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0846, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9672, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0705, "after": 0.078 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "expected_assists": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0846, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9672, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1236, "fifa_rank": 675.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "expected_assists": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0846, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0416, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9672, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0416, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "scorer_weight": 0.0411, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 0.9672, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.844, "tackles": 1.2044, "tackles_won": 0.7227, "clearances": 2.6917, "aerial_won": 0.8333, "total_shots": 0.6772, "rating": 6.8046, "minutes": 87.2, "total_pass": 36.2858, "accurate_pass": 31.5117, "duels_won": 2.5587, "total_long_balls": 2.6158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6624, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1729, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3388, "crosses_total": 1.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 55.1052, "possession_lost": 9.1843, "dispossessed": 0.1716, "duels_lost": 2.4003, "aerial_lost": 1.0393, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1942, "ball_recovery": 3.1077, "challenges_lost": 0.4285, "fouls": 0.5613, "fouls_drawn": 1.0325, "blocks": 0.2948, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "expected_assists": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.3071, "big_chances_created": 0.1173, "xgot": 0.0846, "ball_carries": 12.2917, "total_progression": 40.2384, "progressive_carries": 1.1263, "key_pass": 0.7489, "shots_off_target": 0.37, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0416, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.075, "finishing_factor": 0.9672, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.075, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0624, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0629, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "player_id": 994363, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 29, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 48, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.207, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5067 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 1.0844 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.9278 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9018 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.3996 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 34, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.8221 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1713 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0899 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.2116 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 868, "combined_rank_score": 410.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 300.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0421, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 521.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.008, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bart Verbruggen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jun-seok Son", "ranking": 863 }, { "player_name": "Mukhsinjon Ubaydullaev", "ranking": 864 }, { "player_name": "Nurmukhammad Abduganiev", "ranking": 865 }, { "player_name": "Michail Antonio", "ranking": 866 }, { "player_name": "Guglielmo Vicario", "ranking": 867 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jang Min-Jun", "ranking": 869 }, { "player_name": "Josip Stanišić", "ranking": 870 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Sobirkhuzhaev", "ranking": 871 }, { "player_name": "Sung-joon Kim", "ranking": 872 }, { "player_name": "Derlan", "ranking": 873 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0079, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9243, "goals_prevented": -0.0676, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.4956, "accurate_pass": 28.2776, "total_long_balls": 18.1945, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2432, "touches": 47.8209, "clearances": 0.8072, "ball_recovery": 7.726, "high_claims": 0.6967, "punches": 0.9893, "aerial_won": 0.6445, "sweeper_actions": 0.8333, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7664, "saves_inside_box": 2.059, "possession_lost": 12.4792, "duels_won": 0.7577, "duels_lost": 0.0961, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.1111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1563 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 9.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 6.2432, "save_contribution": 3.1523, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9239, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 24.1563, "passValueNormalized": 0.08, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 25.7613 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9242961406707764, "model_output": 2.9243, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0327, "total": 2.9243, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.012831 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.008698 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.00608 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.005656 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.004385 } ], "others_margin": -0.011118 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.06761560589075089, "model_output": -0.0676, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": -0.0676, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.019106 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014179 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012398 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.00992 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.009689 } ], "others_margin": -0.012422 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.007988929748535, "model_output": 7.008, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0048, "total": 7.008, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028265 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.017584 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015169 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.012792 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011517 } ], "others_margin": 0.004823 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9474, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0065, "fouls_drawn": 0.112, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0079, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9474, "after": 2.9258 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.207, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.207 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.207, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.82, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.207, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.5, "after": 11.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.82, "after": 2.84 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.207, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 868, "fifa_rank": 521.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.207, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9258, "goals_prevented": -0.0681, "rating": 7.008, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8155, "accurate_pass": 28.501, "total_long_balls": 18.3382, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2925, "touches": 48.1987, "clearances": 0.8136, "ball_recovery": 7.787, "high_claims": 0.7022, "punches": 0.9971, "aerial_won": 0.6496, "sweeper_actions": 0.8399, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7725, "saves_inside_box": 2.0753, "possession_lost": 12.5778, "duels_won": 0.7637, "duels_lost": 0.0969, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0064, "fouls_drawn": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3471, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.207, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Tom McGill": { "player_id": 1007073, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 38, "height": 185, "market_value": 515000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 8951, "combined_rank_score": 7607.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 14954.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tom McGill", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mateo Mendia", "ranking": 8946 }, { "player_name": "Bill Tuiloma", "ranking": 8947 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Courtney-Perkins", "ranking": 8948 }, { "player_name": "James Carragher", "ranking": 8949 }, { "player_name": "Noah Markmann", "ranking": 8950 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Justin Janssen", "ranking": 8952 }, { "player_name": "Ismahila Ouédraogo", "ranking": 8953 }, { "player_name": "Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen", "ranking": 8954 }, { "player_name": "Mikael Uhre", "ranking": 8955 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Anyembe", "ranking": 8956 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€515,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 515000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 62.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 8951, "fifa_rank": 14954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 62.0 } } ] }, "Mats Wieffer": { "player_id": 959628, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 188, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.18, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0859, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2521, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1695, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1166, "expected_assists": 0.2563, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023933, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0833, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1165, "combined_rank_score": 515.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 874.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7825, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mats Wieffer", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chris Richards", "ranking": 1160 }, { "player_name": "Andriy Lunin", "ranking": 1161 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 1162 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 1163 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 1164 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Noah Sadiki", "ranking": 1166 }, { "player_name": "Kingsley Sarfo", "ranking": 1167 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Parra", "ranking": 1168 }, { "player_name": "Yaya Dukuly", "ranking": 1169 }, { "player_name": "Rustam Turdimurodov", "ranking": 1170 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.48735814265611, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.236, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0074, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (28 historical appearances) to 14.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3782, "tackles": 0.9056, "tackles_won": 0.679, "clearances": 0.8216, "aerial_won": 0.5939, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 26.49, "total_pass": 16.2342, "accurate_pass": 13.2993, "duels_won": 3.9932, "total_long_balls": 1.1662, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3149, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9844, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.6608, "possession_lost": 5.1011, "dispossessed": 0.3887, "duels_lost": 2.7687, "aerial_lost": 0.7191, "total_contest": 0.6113, "won_contest": 0.3304, "ball_recovery": 1.7191, "challenges_lost": 0.7191, "fouls": 0.6608, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3304, "assist_rate": 0.3304, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "expected_assists": 0.1222, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3304, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.7191, "shots_off_target": 0.2921 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 9.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.5886, "aerialWon": 1.5798, "totalClearance_p90": 1.8623, "totalTackle": 1.7946, "defensive_actions": 3.1044 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3781912326812744, "model_output": 0.3782, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5022 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0066, "total": 0.3782, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.875427 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.120165 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.02914 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.028459 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027442 } ], "others_margin": 0.017755 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.9056355953216553, "model_output": 0.9056, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7299 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0276 } ], "others": 0.1234, "total": 0.9056, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.743469 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.045393 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.043221 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.042876 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.035876 } ], "others_margin": 0.146598 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6789759397506714, "model_output": 0.679, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4446 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": 0.1513, "total": 0.679, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.735028 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.078979 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.068433 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.055281 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.050487 } ], "others_margin": 0.252308 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8216372132301331, "model_output": 0.8216, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0528 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2829 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1153 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0453 } ], "others": -0.0598, "total": 0.8216, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.911357 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.22945 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.111028 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.057684 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050172 } ], "others_margin": -0.070122 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5938796997070312, "model_output": 0.5939, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7429 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0938 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.035 } ], "others": -0.0715, "total": 0.5939, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.77521 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.137924 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.072595 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.071536 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.053994 } ], "others_margin": -0.11379 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.29209163784980774, "model_output": 0.2921, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2469 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0302, "total": 0.2921, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.246888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040969 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.023926 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018009 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.011771 } ], "others_margin": -0.030195 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.782473564147949, "model_output": 6.7825, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0133, "total": 6.7825, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01993 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009892 } ], "others_margin": 0.013315 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.381, "tackles": 0.9123, "tackles_won": 0.684, "clearances": 0.8277, "aerial_won": 0.5983, "total_shots": 0.2943, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 26.49, "total_pass": 16.3543, "accurate_pass": 13.3977, "duels_won": 4.0227, "total_long_balls": 1.1748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3916, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3542, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0435, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.8803, "possession_lost": 5.1388, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 2.7892, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.6158, "won_contest": 0.3328, "ball_recovery": 1.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.6657, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3328, "assist_rate": 0.3328, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3328, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0592, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.7244, "shots_off_target": 0.2943 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0112)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3864, "tackles": 0.9123, "tackles_won": 0.6783, "clearances": 0.8277, "aerial_won": 0.5983, "total_shots": 0.2948, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 26.49, "total_pass": 16.3543, "accurate_pass": 13.3977, "duels_won": 4.0227, "total_long_balls": 1.1748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3916, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3542, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0435, "crosses_total": 0.0097, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.8803, "possession_lost": 5.1388, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 2.7892, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.6158, "won_contest": 0.3328, "ball_recovery": 1.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.6602, "fouls_drawn": 0.0058, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3291, "assist_rate": 0.3291, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3328, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0592, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.7244, "shots_off_target": 0.2943 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0112, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2943, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0097 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0058 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.684, "after": 0.6783 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6657, "after": 0.6602 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.381, "after": 0.3864 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.5 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2113, "tackles": 0.4989, "tackles_won": 0.371, "clearances": 0.4527, "aerial_won": 0.3272, "total_shots": 0.1612, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.161, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.49, "projection_minutes": 26.49, "minutes_scale": 0.5469, "appearance_probability": 0.236 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2113, "tackles": 0.4989, "tackles_won": 0.371, "clearances": 0.4527, "aerial_won": 0.3272, "total_shots": 0.1612, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.161, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2113, "tackles": 0.4989, "tackles_won": 0.371, "clearances": 0.4527, "aerial_won": 0.3272, "total_shots": 0.1612, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.18, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.161, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.236, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2113, "tackles": 0.4989, "tackles_won": 0.371, "clearances": 0.4527, "aerial_won": 0.3272, "total_shots": 0.1612, "rating": 6.7825, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.18, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.161, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1165, "fifa_rank": 874.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Pascal Struijk": { "player_id": 836675, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 190, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7851, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1476, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1606, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 58, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 14, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.165, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2259, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3241, "combined_rank_score": 1184.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 584.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7941, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1784.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7851, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 }, { "player_name": "Largie Ramazani", "ranking": 3237 }, { "player_name": "Zian Flemming", "ranking": 3238 }, { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 }, { "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking": 3240 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 }, { "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking": 3244 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 }, { "player_name": "Jean Butez", "ranking": 3246 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45166323111848, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.33871196505084, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0054, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (38 historical appearances) to 14.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.34); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3244, "tackles": 0.4893, "tackles_won": 0.2602, "clearances": 1.4441, "aerial_won": 0.8047, "total_shots": 0.1763, "rating": 6.7851, "minutes": 11.55, "total_pass": 14.0952, "accurate_pass": 13.2526, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.5617, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5072, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7454, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.931, "possession_lost": 0.8426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5617, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2809, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8649, "total_progression": 8.2149, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1763 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.6189, "aerialWon": 2.157, "totalClearance_p90": 6.7269, "totalTackle": 0.9685, "defensive_actions": 1.4823 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3244148790836334, "model_output": 0.3244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.486 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.3244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.831259 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.104024 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.025397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020899 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016506 } ], "others_margin": -0.052651 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.48932957649230957, "model_output": 0.4893, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7656 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0724, "total": 0.4893, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.798872 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.031925 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.02788 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.02706 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.021325 } ], "others_margin": -0.138043 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.26024341583251953, "model_output": 0.2602, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4765 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0533, "total": 0.2602, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.816038 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.058128 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050395 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.042788 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.035034 } ], "others_margin": -0.186127 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4440919160842896, "model_output": 1.4441, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2504 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0854 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0754 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0721 } ], "others": 0.0595, "total": 1.4441, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.065879 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.091761 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063838 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053176 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.050734 } ], "others_margin": 0.041962 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8047341704368591, "model_output": 0.8047, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8355 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1359 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.0382, "total": 0.8047, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.932907 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.223757 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053659 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.03708 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032354 } ], "others_margin": 0.04868 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17628200352191925, "model_output": 0.1763, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.245 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 0.1763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.244961 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009129 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008749 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008378 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.007644 } ], "others_margin": -0.019357 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.785105228424072, "model_output": 6.7851, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 6.7851, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.028339 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027624 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012632 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01128 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.007473 } ], "others_margin": -0.007708 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0054, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3262, "tackles": 0.492, "tackles_won": 0.2616, "clearances": 1.4519, "aerial_won": 0.8091, "total_shots": 0.1773, "rating": 6.7851, "minutes": 11.55, "total_pass": 14.1713, "accurate_pass": 13.3242, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.5647, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8248, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5423, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7818, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.017, "possession_lost": 0.8472, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5647, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2824, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8966, "total_progression": 8.2593, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1773 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0054, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.6 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4082, "tackles": 0.6156, "tackles_won": 0.3273, "clearances": 1.8167, "aerial_won": 1.0124, "total_shots": 0.2218, "rating": 6.7851, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7315, "accurate_pass": 16.6716, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1859, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4856, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0409, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7066, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.378, "total_progression": 10.3343, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2218, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.45, "projection_minutes": 11.55, "minutes_scale": 1.2512, "appearance_probability": 0.339 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4082, "tackles": 0.6156, "tackles_won": 0.3273, "clearances": 1.8167, "aerial_won": 1.0124, "total_shots": 0.2218, "rating": 6.7851, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7315, "accurate_pass": 16.6716, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1859, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4856, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0409, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7066, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.378, "total_progression": 10.3343, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2218, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4082, "tackles": 0.6156, "tackles_won": 0.3273, "clearances": 1.8167, "aerial_won": 1.0124, "total_shots": 0.2218, "rating": 6.7851, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7315, "accurate_pass": 16.6716, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1859, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4856, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0409, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7066, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.378, "total_progression": 10.3343, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2218, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.339, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4082, "tackles": 0.6156, "tackles_won": 0.3273, "clearances": 1.8167, "aerial_won": 1.0124, "total_shots": 0.2218, "rating": 6.7851, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7315, "accurate_pass": 16.6716, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1859, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4856, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0409, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7066, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.378, "total_progression": 10.3343, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2218, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3241, "fifa_rank": 1784.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Jack Hinshelwood": { "player_id": 1142315, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 182, "market_value": 34000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.4118, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2996, "expected_assists": 0.3384, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2444, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6634, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0259, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4503, "expected_assists": 0.3246, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "expected_assists": 0.7795, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8553, "expected_assists": 0.1713, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1874, "combined_rank_score": 724.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 3.0, "sofascore_rating": 9.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1445.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7796, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Hinshelwood", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Felipe Vizeu", "ranking": 1869 }, { "player_name": "José Miguel Manzaneda", "ranking": 1870 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Fydriszewski", "ranking": 1871 }, { "player_name": "Marc Bernal", "ranking": 1872 }, { "player_name": "Calebe Gonçalves", "ranking": 1873 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "David Retamal", "ranking": 1875 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 }, { "player_name": "Cucho Hernández", "ranking": 1878 }, { "player_name": "Evanilson", "ranking": 1879 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.757, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.192317550269202, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.332, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0109, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 2.857142857142857, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (28 historical appearances) to 23.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.33); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.46, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.082, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.1041, "goal_rate": 0.1041, "shots_on_target": 0.4289, "total_shots": 1.0473, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 26.39, "total_pass": 17.4259, "accurate_pass": 15.7928, "duels_won": 0.4321, "total_long_balls": 0.8194, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4853, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7094, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0834, "crosses_total": 0.4546, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.3332, "possession_lost": 2.5893, "dispossessed": 0.2712, "duels_lost": 0.9641, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3472, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1985, "tackles": 0.2965, "clearances": 0.7428, "total_contest": 0.2508, "won_contest": 0.1356, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2305, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1152, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 6.8926, "total_progression": 23.5102, "progressive_carries": 0.4595, "shots_off_target": 0.6184 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0145, "creative_index": 0.3877, "expectedGoals": 0.4677, "expectedAssists": 0.1113, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.068 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.460008829832077, "model_output": 0.46, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3963 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.029 } ], "others": -0.1149, "total": 0.46, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.586716 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.124213 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.100447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.070658 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.05179 } ], "others_margin": -0.222819 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03675771504640579, "model_output": 0.0368, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0024 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0007, "total": 0.0368, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584762 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.209374 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.07288 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.065141 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.063078 } ], "others_margin": 0.019146 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08200260996818542, "model_output": 0.082, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": 0.011, "total": 0.082, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.262277 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.116943 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.106016 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.094835 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.070813 } ], "others_margin": 0.143036 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07037908583879471, "model_output": 0.0704, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 0.0704, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.759628 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.383011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.168923 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.039685 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.030623 } ], "others_margin": -0.075776 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.10408273339271545, "model_output": 0.1041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": 0.0112, "total": 0.1041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.676874 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.276843 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.137173 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.120878 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.090011 } ], "others_margin": 0.114349 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.42890438437461853, "model_output": 0.4289, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1513 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0533 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 } ], "others": 0.0865, "total": 0.4289, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.624493 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.266657 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.232725 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.094193 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.080931 } ], "others_margin": 0.225154 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0473289489746094, "model_output": 1.0473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6539 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4312 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0789 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0703 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0657 } ], "others": 0.0596, "total": 1.0473, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.653859 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.431248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.078892 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.070261 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.065713 } ], "others_margin": 0.05954 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.779575824737549, "model_output": 6.7796, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0724 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 6.7796, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072445 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.07088 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046462 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032821 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020673 } ], "others_margin": -0.0376 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.465, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0711, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "shots_on_target": 0.4336, "total_shots": 1.0587, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 26.39, "total_pass": 17.6158, "accurate_pass": 15.9649, "duels_won": 0.4368, "total_long_balls": 0.8283, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4906, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1824, "crosses_total": 0.4596, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5657, "possession_lost": 2.6175, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.9746, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2007, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.7509, "total_contest": 0.2535, "won_contest": 0.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.233, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 6.9677, "total_progression": 23.7665, "progressive_carries": 0.4645, "shots_off_target": 0.6251 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0046)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.465, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assists": 0.0825, "assist_rate": 0.0825, "expected_goals": 0.0711, "goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1086, "shots_on_target": 0.4355, "total_shots": 1.0596, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 26.39, "total_pass": 17.6158, "accurate_pass": 15.9649, "duels_won": 0.4368, "total_long_balls": 0.8283, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4906, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1824, "crosses_total": 0.4575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5657, "possession_lost": 2.6175, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.9746, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2036, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.7509, "total_contest": 0.2535, "won_contest": 0.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2319, "fouls_drawn": 0.0039, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 6.9677, "total_progression": 23.7665, "progressive_carries": 0.4645, "shots_off_target": 0.6251 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0046, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2932, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.4 to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4087, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "assists": 0.0725, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.3827, "total_shots": 0.9321, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.19, "projection_minutes": 26.39, "minutes_scale": 0.8788, "appearance_probability": 0.332 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4087, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "assists": 0.0725, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.3827, "total_shots": 0.9321, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4087, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3827, "total_shots": 0.9321, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.332, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4087, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3827, "total_shots": 0.9321, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1874, "fifa_rank": 1445.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Georginio Rutter": { "player_id": 946695, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 182, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0757, "assist_rate": 0.1831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.6519, "dispossessed": 0.5697, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0936, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0786, "expected_assists": 0.4434, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0617, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3551, "expected_assists": 0.3207, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2606, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1238, "expected_assists": 0.105, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0835, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1939, "combined_rank_score": 746.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 68.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1425.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6848, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Georginio Rutter", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Óscar Opazo", "ranking": 1934 }, { "player_name": "Kyrian Nwoko", "ranking": 1935 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Gutiérrez", "ranking": 1936 }, { "player_name": "Conor Bradley", "ranking": 1937 }, { "player_name": "Matías Soulé", "ranking": 1938 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luke Shaw", "ranking": 1940 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Müller", "ranking": 1941 }, { "player_name": "Manjrekar James", "ranking": 1942 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze", "ranking": 1943 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Shukurov", "ranking": 1944 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.110658378070404, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.33, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0082, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (35 historical appearances) to 23.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.33); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5854, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "assists": 0.127, "assist_rate": 0.127, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.061, "goal_rate": 0.061, "shots_on_target": 0.2083, "total_shots": 0.7907, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 16.21, "total_pass": 4.3761, "accurate_pass": 2.9081, "duels_won": 1.6395, "total_long_balls": 0.3091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0755, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7094, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6198, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2883, "crosses_total": 0.4184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0742, "touches": 11.092, "possession_lost": 4.6278, "dispossessed": 0.5651, "duels_lost": 2.1409, "aerial_won": 0.404, "aerial_lost": 0.2553, "interceptions": 0.1982, "tackles_won": 0.2584, "tackles": 0.3999, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.2163, "fouls": 0.3216, "fouls_drawn": 0.3734, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2414, "big_chances_missed": 0.2448, "xgot": 0.0562, "ball_carries": 4.21, "total_progression": 16.6429, "progressive_carries": 0.55, "shots_off_target": 0.5824 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9974, "creative_index": 0.3277, "expectedGoals": 0.0807, "expectedAssists": 0.1286, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1855 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.585372269153595, "model_output": 0.5854, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3663 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0693 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0307, "total": 0.5854, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.527988 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.123692 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.058074 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.055486 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041809 } ], "others_margin": 0.05373 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05270542949438095, "model_output": 0.0527, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 0.0527, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.534194 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.127257 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10896 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069968 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.048476 } ], "others_margin": -0.051388 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12704646587371826, "model_output": 0.127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0311, "total": 0.127, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.153877 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.145904 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.116854 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.104086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089944 } ], "others_margin": 0.281132 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06703292578458786, "model_output": 0.067, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0014 } ], "others": 0.0086, "total": 0.067, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.136843 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.065428 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.033629 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.024917 } ], "others_margin": 0.137489 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.060964640229940414, "model_output": 0.061, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0042 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.061, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.526921 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.150063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.128487 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.095404 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.074743 } ], "others_margin": 0.053491 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20827168226242065, "model_output": 0.2083, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1611 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": 0.0207, "total": 0.2083, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.682073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.181367 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.054995 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.037227 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03271 } ], "others_margin": 0.103959 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7907130122184753, "model_output": 0.7907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4611 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0791 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": 0.1037, "total": 0.7907, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.461148 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079135 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.037064 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.018614 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.01779 } ], "others_margin": 0.103723 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6848368644714355, "model_output": 6.6848, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0186, "total": 6.6848, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07855 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050615 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024545 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01822 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014234 } ], "others_margin": -0.018494 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5902, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.1281, "assist_rate": 0.1281, "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goals": 0.0615, "goal_rate": 0.0615, "shots_on_target": 0.21, "total_shots": 0.7972, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 16.21, "total_pass": 4.412, "accurate_pass": 2.9319, "duels_won": 1.6529, "total_long_balls": 0.3116, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0761, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6249, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3071, "crosses_total": 0.4218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 11.183, "possession_lost": 4.6657, "dispossessed": 0.5697, "duels_lost": 2.1585, "aerial_won": 0.4073, "aerial_lost": 0.2574, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.2605, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5018, "won_contest": 0.6093, "challenges_lost": 0.2181, "fouls": 0.3242, "fouls_drawn": 0.3765, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2434, "big_chances_missed": 0.2468, "xgot": 0.0567, "ball_carries": 4.2445, "total_progression": 16.7794, "progressive_carries": 0.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.5872 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5902, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0612, "shots_on_target": 0.2089, "total_shots": 0.7948, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 16.21, "total_pass": 4.412, "accurate_pass": 2.9319, "duels_won": 1.6529, "total_long_balls": 0.3116, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0761, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6249, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3071, "crosses_total": 0.4195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 11.183, "possession_lost": 4.6657, "dispossessed": 0.5697, "duels_lost": 2.1585, "aerial_won": 0.4073, "aerial_lost": 0.2574, "interceptions": 0.1987, "tackles_won": 0.261, "tackles": 0.4032, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5018, "won_contest": 0.6093, "challenges_lost": 0.2181, "fouls": 0.3224, "fouls_drawn": 0.3745, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2434, "big_chances_missed": 0.2468, "xgot": 0.0567, "ball_carries": 4.2445, "total_progression": 16.7794, "progressive_carries": 0.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.5872 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1801, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.2 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8415, "expected_assists": 0.0757, "assists": 0.1831, "assist_rate": 0.1831, "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "shots_on_target": 0.2978, "total_shots": 1.135, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 6.2902, "accurate_pass": 4.18, "duels_won": 2.3565, "total_long_balls": 0.4442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1085, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8909, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2892, "crosses_total": 0.5981, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 15.9436, "possession_lost": 6.6519, "dispossessed": 0.5697, "duels_lost": 3.0774, "aerial_won": 0.5807, "aerial_lost": 0.2574, "interceptions": 0.2833, "tackles_won": 0.3721, "tackles": 0.5748, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.1411, "won_contest": 0.8687, "challenges_lost": 0.2181, "fouls": 0.4596, "fouls_drawn": 0.5339, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.347, "big_chances_missed": 0.3519, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 6.0514, "total_progression": 23.9225, "progressive_carries": 0.7906, "shots_off_target": 0.8372, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.11, "projection_minutes": 16.21, "minutes_scale": 1.4257, "appearance_probability": 0.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8415, "expected_assists": 0.0757, "assists": 0.1831, "assist_rate": 0.1831, "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "shots_on_target": 0.2978, "total_shots": 1.135, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 6.2902, "accurate_pass": 4.18, "duels_won": 2.3565, "total_long_balls": 0.4442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1085, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8909, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2892, "crosses_total": 0.5981, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 15.9436, "possession_lost": 6.6519, "dispossessed": 0.5697, "duels_lost": 3.0774, "aerial_won": 0.5807, "aerial_lost": 0.2574, "interceptions": 0.2833, "tackles_won": 0.3721, "tackles": 0.5748, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.1411, "won_contest": 0.8687, "challenges_lost": 0.2181, "fouls": 0.4596, "fouls_drawn": 0.5339, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.347, "big_chances_missed": 0.3519, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 6.0514, "total_progression": 23.9225, "progressive_carries": 0.7906, "shots_off_target": 0.8372, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8415, "expected_assists": 0.0757, "assist_rate": 0.1831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2978, "total_shots": 1.135, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 6.2902, "accurate_pass": 4.18, "duels_won": 2.3565, "total_long_balls": 0.4442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1085, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8909, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2892, "crosses_total": 0.5981, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 15.9436, "possession_lost": 6.6519, "dispossessed": 0.5697, "duels_lost": 3.0774, "aerial_won": 0.5807, "aerial_lost": 0.2574, "interceptions": 0.2833, "tackles_won": 0.3721, "tackles": 0.5748, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.1411, "won_contest": 0.8687, "challenges_lost": 0.2181, "fouls": 0.4596, "fouls_drawn": 0.5339, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.347, "big_chances_missed": 0.3519, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 6.0514, "total_progression": 23.9225, "progressive_carries": 0.7906, "shots_off_target": 0.8372, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.33, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8415, "expected_assists": 0.0757, "assist_rate": 0.1831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2978, "total_shots": 1.135, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 6.2902, "accurate_pass": 4.18, "duels_won": 2.3565, "total_long_balls": 0.4442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1085, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8909, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2892, "crosses_total": 0.5981, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 15.9436, "possession_lost": 6.6519, "dispossessed": 0.5697, "duels_lost": 3.0774, "aerial_won": 0.5807, "aerial_lost": 0.2574, "interceptions": 0.2833, "tackles_won": 0.3721, "tackles": 0.5748, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.1411, "won_contest": 0.8687, "challenges_lost": 0.2181, "fouls": 0.4596, "fouls_drawn": 0.5339, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.347, "big_chances_missed": 0.3519, "xgot": 0.0808, "ball_carries": 6.0514, "total_progression": 23.9225, "progressive_carries": 0.7906, "shots_off_target": 0.8372, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1939, "fifa_rank": 1425.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Yankuba Minteh": { "player_id": 1400106, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 51000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2882, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2246, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3172, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3435, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0933, "expected_assists": 0.2006, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.231, "expected_assists": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.7064, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023933, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1459, "combined_rank_score": 602.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 505.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8559, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7091, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yankuba Minteh", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking": 1454 }, { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 1456 }, { "player_name": "Gulyamkhaydar Gulyamov", "ranking": 1457 }, { "player_name": "Lachlan Wales", "ranking": 1458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ladislav Krejčí", "ranking": 1460 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Kuen", "ranking": 1461 }, { "player_name": "Bekhruz Shaydulov", "ranking": 1462 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Palma", "ranking": 1463 }, { "player_name": "Ahmadullo Muqimjonov", "ranking": 1464 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.837191117968388, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6289632326349268, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0124, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (34 historical appearances) to 26.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.1768, "total_shots": 0.6747, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "key_pass": 0.6382, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.118, "accurate_pass": 6.0683, "duels_won": 2.6165, "total_long_balls": 0.1555, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1555, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7901, "crosses_total": 2.9152, "crosses_accurate": 0.4475, "touches": 20.0717, "possession_lost": 8.0806, "dispossessed": 0.2414, "duels_lost": 3.3651, "aerial_lost": 1.0488, "total_contest": 2.318, "won_contest": 1.0106, "ball_recovery": 1.1417, "challenges_lost": 0.4124, "fouls": 0.3552, "fouls_drawn": 0.3019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1753, "tackles_won": 0.8936, "tackles": 1.1775, "clearances": 0.2829, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0.253, "ball_carries": 6.7058, "total_progression": 27.1658, "progressive_carries": 1.6945, "shots_off_target": 0.4979 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.0581, "expectedGoals": 0.0828, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9082, "accuratePass": 13.8975, "totalShots": 0.7671 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0643760934472084, "model_output": 0.0644, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0891 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 0.0644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599966 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.170332 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.066539 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.042291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.036432 } ], "others_margin": -0.205535 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0647122710943222, "model_output": 0.0647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0831 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 0.0647, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525164 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.134638 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.121943 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.047942 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.035172 } ], "others_margin": -0.280156 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1768074482679367, "model_output": 0.1768, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2338 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 0.1768, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570514 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.107156 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.077571 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.069781 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.040719 } ], "others_margin": -0.246402 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6746646165847778, "model_output": 0.6747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4697 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1439 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0403 } ], "others": -0.0589, "total": 0.6747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.469729 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.143908 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.055811 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.042138 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.040342 } ], "others_margin": -0.058869 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07373632490634918, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0026 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": 0.0136, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.312795 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.155298 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.089177 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.042638 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.041418 } ], "others_margin": 0.20535 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6381714940071106, "model_output": 0.6382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2342 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0321 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0257 } ], "others": 0.0378, "total": 0.6382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.427395 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.116839 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094608 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057442 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.043696 } ], "others_margin": 0.061124 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.70905876159668, "model_output": 6.7091, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.071 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0449, "total": 6.7091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07095 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.022085 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018834 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.01458 } ], "others_margin": -0.044892 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.828)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0652, "goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.0655, "shots_on_target": 0.179, "total_shots": 0.6831, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "key_pass": 0.6461, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.2311, "accurate_pass": 6.1435, "duels_won": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 0.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1574, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8371, "crosses_total": 2.9513, "crosses_accurate": 0.453, "touches": 20.3206, "possession_lost": 8.1808, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.4068, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.3467, "won_contest": 1.0231, "ball_recovery": 1.1559, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3056, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1775, "tackles_won": 0.9047, "tackles": 1.1921, "clearances": 0.2864, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.789, "total_progression": 27.5027, "progressive_carries": 1.7155, "shots_off_target": 0.5041 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 51000000, "quality_factor": 0.8276, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0629, "goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.84, "projection_minutes": 27.84, "minutes_scale": 0.964, "appearance_probability": 0.629 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0629, "goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0629, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.629 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0629, "after": 0.0438 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.072, "after": 0.0501 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1459, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "scorer_weight": 0.0439, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0278, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0401, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0404, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Zadok Yohanna": { "player_id": 2189496, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 184, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6608, "combined_rank_score": 4925.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 9029.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6115, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zadok Yohanna", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Youssef Maleh", "ranking": 6603 }, { "player_name": "Pasquale Mazzocchi", "ranking": 6604 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pierini", "ranking": 6605 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Pierotti", "ranking": 6606 }, { "player_name": "Fali Candé", "ranking": 6607 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrea Carboni", "ranking": 6609 }, { "player_name": "Ben Gibson", "ranking": 6610 }, { "player_name": "Oier Zarraga", "ranking": 6611 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Álvarez", "ranking": 6612 }, { "player_name": "Jamie Donley", "ranking": 6613 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.737, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0386, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 13.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 18.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 13.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.218, "total_shots": 0.4866, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.3209, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.0, "accurate_pass": 5.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0, "won_contest": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0, "total_progression": 21.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2686 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.0, "accuratePass": 5.0, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05458255112171173, "model_output": 0.0546, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0879 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 0.0546, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589264 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.189796 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.100643 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.06181 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.057671 } ], "others_margin": -0.28694 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04746166244149208, "model_output": 0.0475, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0922 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0243, "total": 0.0475, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.603705 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.184617 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.103051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075842 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.073459 } ], "others_margin": -0.414369 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21799077093601227, "model_output": 0.218, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2175 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 0.218, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.518347 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.081544 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052639 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.052318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050216 } ], "others_margin": -0.147689 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4865567982196808, "model_output": 0.4866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5502 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1095 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0282 } ], "others": -0.1215, "total": 0.4866, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550211 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.109475 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.04316 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.034597 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.028176 } ], "others_margin": -0.121665 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.030331984162330627, "model_output": 0.0303, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0129, "total": 0.0303, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.363747 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.119404 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.089937 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.08367 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.082842 } ], "others_margin": -0.356 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.32090526819229126, "model_output": 0.3209, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2571 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": -0.036, "total": 0.3209, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480936 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077356 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068208 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.066217 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058074 } ], "others_margin": -0.106505 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.611458778381348, "model_output": 6.6115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0715, "total": 6.6115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065603 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014528 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011713 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010235 } ], "others_margin": -0.071523 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0386, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "shots_on_target": 0.2264, "total_shots": 0.5054, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3333, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0386, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.279 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0386, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "shots_on_target": 0.2256, "total_shots": 0.5036, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3333, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0418, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.279 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0036, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1926, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.93, "projection_minutes": 17.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0923, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0619, "after": 0.0505 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0344, "after": 0.0281 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6608, "fifa_rank": 9029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "scorer_weight": 0.0468, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0225, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Zadok Yohanna": { "player_id": 2189496, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 184, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6608, "combined_rank_score": 4925.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 9029.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6115, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zadok Yohanna", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Youssef Maleh", "ranking": 6603 }, { "player_name": "Pasquale Mazzocchi", "ranking": 6604 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pierini", "ranking": 6605 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Pierotti", "ranking": 6606 }, { "player_name": "Fali Candé", "ranking": 6607 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrea Carboni", "ranking": 6609 }, { "player_name": "Ben Gibson", "ranking": 6610 }, { "player_name": "Oier Zarraga", "ranking": 6611 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Álvarez", "ranking": 6612 }, { "player_name": "Jamie Donley", "ranking": 6613 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.737, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0386, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 13.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 18.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 13.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.218, "total_shots": 0.4866, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.3209, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.0, "accurate_pass": 5.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.0, "possession_lost": 4.0, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 3.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0, "won_contest": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0, "total_progression": 21.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2686 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.0, "accuratePass": 5.0, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05458255112171173, "model_output": 0.0546, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0879 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 0.0546, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589264 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.189796 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.100643 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.06181 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.057671 } ], "others_margin": -0.28694 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04746166244149208, "model_output": 0.0475, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0922 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0243, "total": 0.0475, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.603705 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.184617 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.103051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075842 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.073459 } ], "others_margin": -0.414369 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21799077093601227, "model_output": 0.218, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2175 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 0.218, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.518347 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.081544 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052639 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.052318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050216 } ], "others_margin": -0.147689 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4865567982196808, "model_output": 0.4866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5502 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1095 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0282 } ], "others": -0.1215, "total": 0.4866, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550211 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.109475 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.04316 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.034597 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.028176 } ], "others_margin": -0.121665 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.030331984162330627, "model_output": 0.0303, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0129, "total": 0.0303, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.363747 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.119404 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.089937 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.08367 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.082842 } ], "others_margin": -0.356 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.32090526819229126, "model_output": 0.3209, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2571 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": -0.036, "total": 0.3209, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480936 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077356 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068208 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.066217 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058074 } ], "others_margin": -0.106505 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.611458778381348, "model_output": 6.6115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0715, "total": 6.6115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065603 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014528 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011713 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010235 } ], "others_margin": -0.071523 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0386, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "shots_on_target": 0.2264, "total_shots": 0.5054, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3333, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0386, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.279 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0386, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "shots_on_target": 0.2256, "total_shots": 0.5036, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3333, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0418, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.279 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0036, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1926, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.93, "projection_minutes": 17.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0923, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0619, "after": 0.0505 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0344, "after": 0.0281 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6608, "fifa_rank": 9029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "scorer_weight": 0.0468, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2464, "total_shots": 0.5512, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3641, "rating": 6.6115, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0488, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 0.9258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0225, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Yankuba Minteh": { "player_id": 1400106, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 51000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2882, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2246, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3172, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3435, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0933, "expected_assists": 0.2006, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.231, "expected_assists": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.7064, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023933, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1459, "combined_rank_score": 602.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 505.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8559, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7091, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yankuba Minteh", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking": 1454 }, { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 1456 }, { "player_name": "Gulyamkhaydar Gulyamov", "ranking": 1457 }, { "player_name": "Lachlan Wales", "ranking": 1458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ladislav Krejčí", "ranking": 1460 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Kuen", "ranking": 1461 }, { "player_name": "Bekhruz Shaydulov", "ranking": 1462 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Palma", "ranking": 1463 }, { "player_name": "Ahmadullo Muqimjonov", "ranking": 1464 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.837191117968388, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6289632326349268, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0124, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (34 historical appearances) to 26.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.1768, "total_shots": 0.6747, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "key_pass": 0.6382, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.118, "accurate_pass": 6.0683, "duels_won": 2.6165, "total_long_balls": 0.1555, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1555, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7901, "crosses_total": 2.9152, "crosses_accurate": 0.4475, "touches": 20.0717, "possession_lost": 8.0806, "dispossessed": 0.2414, "duels_lost": 3.3651, "aerial_lost": 1.0488, "total_contest": 2.318, "won_contest": 1.0106, "ball_recovery": 1.1417, "challenges_lost": 0.4124, "fouls": 0.3552, "fouls_drawn": 0.3019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1753, "tackles_won": 0.8936, "tackles": 1.1775, "clearances": 0.2829, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0.253, "ball_carries": 6.7058, "total_progression": 27.1658, "progressive_carries": 1.6945, "shots_off_target": 0.4979 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.0581, "expectedGoals": 0.0828, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9082, "accuratePass": 13.8975, "totalShots": 0.7671 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0643760934472084, "model_output": 0.0644, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0891 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 0.0644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599966 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.170332 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.066539 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.042291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.036432 } ], "others_margin": -0.205535 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0647122710943222, "model_output": 0.0647, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0831 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 0.0647, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525164 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.134638 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.121943 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.047942 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.035172 } ], "others_margin": -0.280156 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1768074482679367, "model_output": 0.1768, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2338 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 0.1768, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570514 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.107156 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.077571 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.069781 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.040719 } ], "others_margin": -0.246402 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6746646165847778, "model_output": 0.6747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4697 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1439 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0403 } ], "others": -0.0589, "total": 0.6747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.469729 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.143908 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.055811 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.042138 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.040342 } ], "others_margin": -0.058869 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07373632490634918, "model_output": 0.0737, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0026 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": 0.0136, "total": 0.0737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.312795 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.155298 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.089177 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.042638 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.041418 } ], "others_margin": 0.20535 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6381714940071106, "model_output": 0.6382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2342 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0321 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0257 } ], "others": 0.0378, "total": 0.6382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.427395 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.116839 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094608 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057442 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.043696 } ], "others_margin": 0.061124 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.70905876159668, "model_output": 6.7091, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.071 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0449, "total": 6.7091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07095 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.022085 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018834 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.01458 } ], "others_margin": -0.044892 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.828)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0652, "goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.0655, "shots_on_target": 0.179, "total_shots": 0.6831, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "key_pass": 0.6461, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.2311, "accurate_pass": 6.1435, "duels_won": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 0.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1574, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8371, "crosses_total": 2.9513, "crosses_accurate": 0.453, "touches": 20.3206, "possession_lost": 8.1808, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.4068, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.3467, "won_contest": 1.0231, "ball_recovery": 1.1559, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3056, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1775, "tackles_won": 0.9047, "tackles": 1.1921, "clearances": 0.2864, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.789, "total_progression": 27.5027, "progressive_carries": 1.7155, "shots_off_target": 0.5041 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 51000000, "quality_factor": 0.8276, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0629, "goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.84, "projection_minutes": 27.84, "minutes_scale": 0.964, "appearance_probability": 0.629 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0629, "goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0629, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.43 (squad xG sum 1.2924, xG scale 1.1065, xA scale 1.1065, team xA 0.97 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.43, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2924, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8726, "team_expected_assists": 0.9656, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6752, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1065, "xa_scale": 1.1065, "opponent_lambda": 1.216, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.629 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0629, "after": 0.0438 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.072, "after": 0.0501 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1459, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "scorer_weight": 0.0439, "squad_weight_total": 1.5787, "weight_share": 0.0278, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3368, "runner_up": "Maxim De Cuyper", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2346 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.6585, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7091, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0294, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4859, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.0018, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0401, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0404, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2425, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2425, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1924, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.43, "expected_assists": 0.97, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 503, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.93, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } }, "Crystal Palace": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "player_id": 876599, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1971, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2805, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0422, "finishing_factor": 0.8813, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.977, "expected_assists": 0.3296, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.1719, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0884, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2511, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2023, "expected_assists": 0.1627, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1984, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "expected_assists": 0.1103, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2851, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1418.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7626, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sergio Canales", "ranking": 2846 }, { "player_name": "Josip Šutalo", "ranking": 2847 }, { "player_name": "Orlando Mosquera", "ranking": 2848 }, { "player_name": "Kristian Dimitrov", "ranking": 2849 }, { "player_name": "Manor Solomon", "ranking": 2850 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ulugbek Khoshimov", "ranking": 2852 }, { "player_name": "Kian Ronan", "ranking": 2853 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Richards", "ranking": 2854 }, { "player_name": "Cheick Doucouré", "ranking": 2855 }, { "player_name": "Pep Chavarría", "ranking": 2856 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.009, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3424, "goals": 0.2977, "goal_rate": 0.2977, "shots_on_target": 0.81, "total_shots": 2.1425, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "key_pass": 0.5992, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.763, "accurate_pass": 10.8583, "duels_won": 4.1476, "total_long_balls": 0.7933, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3789, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4712, "crosses_total": 0.0107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.8655, "possession_lost": 10.2659, "dispossessed": 1.3639, "duels_lost": 7.1773, "aerial_lost": 4.0799, "total_contest": 1.047, "won_contest": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 1.3176, "challenges_lost": 0.2273, "fouls": 0.9184, "fouls_drawn": 0.973, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0319, "tackles_won": 0.2496, "tackles": 0.491, "clearances": 1.3271, "blocks": 0.4722, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2715, "xgot": 0.2051, "offsides": 0.1795, "ball_carries": 4.5599, "total_progression": 7.835, "progressive_carries": 0.3806, "shots_off_target": 1.3325 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.1532, "expectedGoals": 0.2374, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.2739, "accuratePass": 9.1647, "totalShots": 1.6005 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3423895239830017, "model_output": 0.3424, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": 0.0148, "total": 0.3424, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.273167 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.105084 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049871 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.04715 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.031007 } ], "others_margin": 0.043833 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2976655066013336, "model_output": 0.2977, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 0.2977, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.193332 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.14253 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.113463 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.050238 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.046766 } ], "others_margin": 0.061604 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8099852204322815, "model_output": 0.81, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1605 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0423, "total": 0.81, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.261203 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.060095 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.058443 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.03908 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.015675 } ], "others_margin": 0.053473 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.1424427032470703, "model_output": 2.1424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5098 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1073 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0494 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0373 } ], "others": 0.0263, "total": 2.1424, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.509803 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.107282 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.049423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038545 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.03727 } ], "others_margin": 0.026279 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.047559238970279694, "model_output": 0.0476, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.0476, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.196563 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.135122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.104898 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.084838 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.080224 } ], "others_margin": -0.252197 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5992206335067749, "model_output": 0.5992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1717 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0569 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0508 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0291 } ], "others": -0.0697, "total": 0.5992, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.227108 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069652 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066659 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.054897 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.042615 } ], "others_margin": -0.109948 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7625885009765625, "model_output": 6.7626, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0484, "total": 6.7626, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047939 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018451 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.014298 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013081 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01284 } ], "others_margin": -0.048441 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3455, "goals": 0.3003, "goal_rate": 0.3003, "shots_on_target": 0.8173, "total_shots": 2.1618, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.9267, "fouls_drawn": 0.9818, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0322, "tackles_won": 0.2518, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2739, "xgot": 0.2069, "offsides": 0.1811, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.3445 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0046)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3455, "goals": 0.2989, "goal_rate": 0.2989, "shots_on_target": 0.8174, "total_shots": 2.1595, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2739, "xgot": 0.2069, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.3445 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0046, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8336, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9267, "after": 0.934 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3455, "goals": 0.2989, "goal_rate": 0.2989, "shots_on_target": 0.8174, "total_shots": 2.1619, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2739, "xgot": 0.2069, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.3445 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3663, "goals": 0.3169, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "shots_on_target": 0.8666, "total_shots": 2.292, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.2194, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "skill_edge": -0.0191, "height_edge": 0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.7859, "defender_skill": 0.8283, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8177 }, { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.839 } ], "xg_override": 0.3663 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1619, "after": 2.292 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3445, "after": 1.4254 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8174, "after": 0.8666 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3455, "after": 0.3663 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2989, "after": 0.3169 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2739, "after": 0.2904 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2069, "after": 0.2194 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3663, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8666, "total_shots": 2.292, "expected_assists": 0.048, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.2194, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8666, "total_shots": 2.292, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.1971, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8813, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3663, "after": 0.3292 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8666, "total_shots": 2.292, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.1971, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8813, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2851, "fifa_rank": 1418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8666, "total_shots": 2.292, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.1971, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2805, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8813, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2805, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "scorer_weight": 0.2901, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.2365, "finishing_factor": 0.8813, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8666, "total_shots": 2.292, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7626, "minutes": 75.02, "total_pass": 15.9049, "accurate_pass": 10.956, "duels_won": 4.1849, "total_long_balls": 0.8004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5384, "crosses_total": 0.0108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1253, "possession_lost": 10.3583, "dispossessed": 1.3762, "duels_lost": 7.2419, "aerial_lost": 4.1166, "total_contest": 1.0564, "won_contest": 0.4516, "ball_recovery": 1.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.934, "fouls_drawn": 0.9811, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0321, "tackles_won": 0.2545, "tackles": 0.4954, "clearances": 1.339, "blocks": 0.4764, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.1971, "offsides": 0.1803, "ball_carries": 4.6009, "total_progression": 7.9055, "progressive_carries": 0.384, "shots_off_target": 1.4254, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2805, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0422, "finishing_factor": 0.8813, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0345, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.048, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Yéremy Pino": { "player_id": 984624, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 172, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1282, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1196, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.216, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1203, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1127, "finishing_factor": 1.2231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.349, "expected_assists": 0.1699, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1584, "expected_assists": 0.1532, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2475, "expected_assists": 0.3046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "expected_assists": 0.0715, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0584, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2783, "expected_assists": 0.3075, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0605, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1004, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1312, "combined_rank_score": 569.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 881.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9588, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 }, { "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking": 1310 }, { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking": 1316 }, { "player_name": "Pacha", "ranking": 1317 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.761, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 103.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.62, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1567, "goals": 0.2048, "goal_rate": 0.2048, "shots_on_target": 0.5404, "total_shots": 1.4803, "expected_assists": 0.1324, "key_pass": 1.4589, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.6634, "accurate_pass": 21.8119, "duels_won": 2.8783, "total_long_balls": 2.0918, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3235, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3253, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0616, "crosses_total": 2.7026, "crosses_accurate": 0.5223, "touches": 41.6418, "possession_lost": 12.3431, "dispossessed": 0.6525, "duels_lost": 4.1034, "aerial_lost": 0.7752, "total_contest": 1.2715, "won_contest": 0.3685, "ball_recovery": 3.2005, "challenges_lost": 0.9863, "fouls": 0.8735, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "interceptions": 0.2174, "tackles_won": 0.5267, "tackles": 1.0296, "clearances": 0.8683, "blocks": 0.1307, "big_chances_created": 0.6498, "big_chances_missed": 0.114, "xgot": 0.2639, "offsides": 0.4066, "ball_carries": 10.1991, "total_progression": 37.5879, "progressive_carries": 1.5658, "shots_off_target": 0.9399 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 37.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 35.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.7227, "expectedGoals": 0.1396, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 10.8532, "accuratePass": 19.7185, "totalShots": 1.128 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1566714197397232, "model_output": 0.1567, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 0.1567, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.269108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.19703 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.101626 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.060263 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.040863 } ], "others_margin": -0.101014 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2048400491476059, "model_output": 0.2048, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 0.2048, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.258339 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.151894 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.091382 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.076916 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.040639 } ], "others_margin": 0.028477 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5403876304626465, "model_output": 0.5404, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1873 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0748 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 0.5404, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.298963 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.108844 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.044003 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041968 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.038717 } ], "others_margin": -0.06035 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.4802403450012207, "model_output": 1.4802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.432 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1387 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0397 } ], "others": -0.0449, "total": 1.4802, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.432037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.138656 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.054666 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.047602 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039702 } ], "others_margin": -0.04501 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.13235317170619965, "model_output": 0.1324, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": 0.0183, "total": 0.1324, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.170437 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.138911 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.111958 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.087396 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.066585 } ], "others_margin": 0.147943 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.4588568210601807, "model_output": 1.4589, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1615 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.127 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0969 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0713 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0472 } ], "others": 0.2816, "total": 1.4589, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.214946 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.141658 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.095947 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.065174 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.04089 } ], "others_margin": 0.2145 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.958825588226318, "model_output": 6.9588, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0233 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 6.9588, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055705 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.039406 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.024165 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024043 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02329 } ], "others_margin": 0.025216 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1576, "goals": 0.2061, "goal_rate": 0.2061, "shots_on_target": 0.5436, "total_shots": 1.4892, "expected_assists": 0.1331, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7188, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 1.0177, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "interceptions": 0.2187, "tackles_won": 0.5299, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1147, "xgot": 0.2655, "offsides": 0.409, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.9455 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0051)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1576, "goals": 0.2051, "goal_rate": 0.2051, "shots_on_target": 0.5408, "total_shots": 1.492, "expected_assists": 0.1331, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1147, "xgot": 0.2655, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.9455 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0051, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7803, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.7188, "after": 2.7374 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8787, "after": 0.885 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0177, "after": 1.0233 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.409, "after": 0.4141 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1576, "goals": 0.2051, "goal_rate": 0.2051, "shots_on_target": 0.5408, "total_shots": 1.492, "expected_assists": 0.1331, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1147, "xgot": 0.2655, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.9455 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1427, "goals": 0.1857, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "shots_on_target": 0.4896, "total_shots": 1.3507, "expected_assists": 0.1331, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.2404, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "skill_edge": -0.0604, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.8283, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8177 }, { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.839 } ], "xg_override": 0.1427 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.492, "after": 1.3507 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9455, "after": 0.856 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5408, "after": 0.4896 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2655, "after": 0.2404 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2051, "after": 0.1857 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1576, "after": 0.1427 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1147, "after": 0.1038 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1427, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4896, "total_shots": 1.3507, "expected_assists": 0.1331, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.2404, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1282, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4896, "total_shots": 1.3507, "expected_assists": 0.1196, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.216, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2231, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1427, "after": 0.1282 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1331, "after": 0.1196 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1282, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4896, "total_shots": 1.3507, "expected_assists": 0.1196, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.216, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1312, "fifa_rank": 881.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1282, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4896, "total_shots": 1.3507, "expected_assists": 0.1196, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.216, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1203, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "scorer_weight": 0.1568, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.1278, "finishing_factor": 1.2231, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1282, "goal_rate": 0.1857, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4896, "total_shots": 1.3507, "expected_assists": 0.1196, "key_pass": 1.4676, "rating": 6.9588, "minutes": 70.23, "total_pass": 27.8294, "accurate_pass": 21.9428, "duels_won": 2.8956, "total_long_balls": 2.1044, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3314, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.134, "crosses_total": 2.7374, "crosses_accurate": 0.5254, "touches": 41.8917, "possession_lost": 12.4172, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.128, "aerial_lost": 0.7799, "total_contest": 1.2791, "won_contest": 0.3707, "ball_recovery": 3.2197, "challenges_lost": 0.9922, "fouls": 0.885, "fouls_drawn": 1.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles_won": 0.5344, "tackles": 1.0358, "clearances": 0.8735, "blocks": 0.1315, "big_chances_created": 0.6537, "big_chances_missed": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.216, "offsides": 0.4141, "ball_carries": 10.2603, "total_progression": 37.8134, "progressive_carries": 1.5752, "shots_off_target": 0.856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1203, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1127, "finishing_factor": 1.2231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1127, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "provider_weight": 0.0957, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Daichi Kamada": { "player_id": 794338, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 184, "market_value": 10300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1002, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0665, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0864, "finishing_factor": 1.0403, "creation_factor": 0.9688, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.34, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4208, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2677, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1485, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "total_shots": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0407, "expected_assists": 0.678, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1213, "combined_rank_score": 531.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 863.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8205, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daichi Kamada", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Žan Karničnik", "ranking": 1208 }, { "player_name": "Abdiel Ayarza", "ranking": 1209 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Șut", "ranking": 1210 }, { "player_name": "Christian Nørgaard", "ranking": 1211 }, { "player_name": "Omar Alderete", "ranking": 1212 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marc-André Ter Stegen", "ranking": 1214 }, { "player_name": "Estéban Lepaul", "ranking": 1215 }, { "player_name": "Asilbek Jumaev", "ranking": 1216 }, { "player_name": "Ikboldzhon Malikdzhonov", "ranking": 1217 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Stefanelli", "ranking": 1218 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0008, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9275, "expected_assists": 0.1005, "assists": 0.0969, "assist_rate": 0.0969, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "goals": 0.0931, "goal_rate": 0.0931, "shots_on_target": 0.3783, "total_shots": 1.0298, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.176, "accurate_pass": 29.9907, "duels_won": 3.8111, "total_long_balls": 1.6868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9501, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8581, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.629, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3179, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3618, "crosses_total": 0.9637, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 47.0296, "possession_lost": 9.0457, "dispossessed": 0.8729, "duels_lost": 3.3599, "aerial_won": 0.2677, "aerial_lost": 0.2345, "interceptions": 0.5402, "tackles_won": 1.4499, "tackles": 2.1494, "clearances": 0.5852, "total_contest": 0.8464, "won_contest": 0.3097, "challenges_lost": 1.1988, "fouls": 0.524, "fouls_drawn": 1.0999, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2403, "big_chances_missed": 0.151, "xgot": 0.1257, "ball_carries": 14.7234, "total_progression": 56.561, "progressive_carries": 2.1063, "shots_off_target": 0.6515 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.7977, "creative_index": 0.4276, "expectedGoals": 0.1264, "expectedAssists": 0.0843, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2869 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9274998307228088, "model_output": 0.9275, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1138 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0473 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 0.9275, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119991 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.04946 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.045715 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.035942 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.033411 } ], "others_margin": -0.016457 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10053246468305588, "model_output": 0.1005, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.1005, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.053684 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.053257 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.038949 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.031415 } ], "others_margin": 0.026187 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09693593531847, "model_output": 0.0969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": 0.0138, "total": 0.0969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.088366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.078086 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.075706 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.064386 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.049763 } ], "others_margin": 0.15409 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08634194731712341, "model_output": 0.0863, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.0863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.19534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.143611 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.138989 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113258 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.025893 } ], "others_margin": -0.08822 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09310854226350784, "model_output": 0.0931, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.0931, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.139865 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.129459 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127617 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087485 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.074767 } ], "others_margin": -0.174349 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3783281445503235, "model_output": 0.3783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0592 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0217, "total": 0.3783, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153109 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.144863 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065123 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057099 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.029683 } ], "others_margin": -0.055739 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.029788613319397, "model_output": 1.0298, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1215 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": -0.0487, "total": 1.0298, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.160112 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.121481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.066234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047403 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.025559 } ], "others_margin": -0.048766 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8204779624938965, "model_output": 6.8205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0202, "total": 6.8205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027658 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.025144 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014123 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.009618 } ], "others_margin": -0.020091 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.097, "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goals": 0.0932, "goal_rate": 0.0932, "shots_on_target": 0.3786, "total_shots": 1.0307, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9645, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 0.2679, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.5406, "tackles_won": 1.4511, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5244, "fouls_drawn": 1.1008, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1511, "xgot": 0.1258, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10300000, "quality_factor": 0.526, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "assists": 0.0959, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.3744, "total_shots": 1.0244, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 0.2679, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1511, "xgot": 0.1258, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.652 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9324, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4511, "after": 1.4712 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9645, "after": 0.9745 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0307, "after": 1.0244 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "assists": 0.0959, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "expected_goals": 0.0864, "goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.3744, "total_shots": 1.0264, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 0.2679, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1511, "xgot": 0.1258, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.652 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "assists": 0.0959, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goals": 0.0817, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1339, "xgot": 0.1115, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.5779, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "skill_edge": -0.1253, "height_edge": 0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.5393, "defender_skill": 0.8177, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8177 } ], "xg_override": 0.0766 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2679, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0264, "after": 0.9098 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.652, "after": 0.5779 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3744, "after": 0.3319 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1511, "after": 0.1339 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1258, "after": 0.1115 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0922, "after": 0.0817 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0864, "after": 0.0766 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.1006, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1339, "xgot": 0.1115, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.5779, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1339, "xgot": 0.1002, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.5779, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0403, "creation_factor": 0.9688 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0766, "after": 0.0688 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1006, "after": 0.0904 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1339, "xgot": 0.1002, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.5779, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0403, "creation_factor": 0.9688, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1213, "fifa_rank": 863.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1339, "xgot": 0.1002, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.5779, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0665, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0403, "creation_factor": 0.9688, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "scorer_weight": 0.0716, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0583, "finishing_factor": 1.0403, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9282, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 0.9098, "rating": 6.8205, "minutes": 83.92, "total_pass": 35.2041, "accurate_pass": 30.0147, "duels_won": 3.8141, "total_long_balls": 1.6881, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9509, "total_own_half_passes": 14.87, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6399, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3749, "crosses_total": 0.9745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 47.0672, "possession_lost": 9.0529, "dispossessed": 0.8736, "duels_lost": 3.3626, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2347, "interceptions": 0.545, "tackles_won": 1.4712, "tackles": 2.1511, "clearances": 0.5857, "total_contest": 0.8471, "won_contest": 0.3099, "challenges_lost": 1.1998, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.2405, "big_chances_missed": 0.1339, "xgot": 0.1002, "ball_carries": 14.7352, "total_progression": 56.6062, "progressive_carries": 2.108, "shots_off_target": 0.5779, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0665, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0864, "finishing_factor": 1.0403, "creation_factor": 0.9688, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0864, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "provider_weight": 0.0876, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.1219, "creation_factor": 0.9688, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "player_id": 988275, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 174, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Olivier Boscagli", "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0717, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.083, "finishing_factor": 1.006, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6617, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1055, "expected_assists": 0.1591, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2608, "expected_assists": 0.1394, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0674, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1305, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1865, "combined_rank_score": 721.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 574.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8053, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 868.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9058, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tyrick Mitchell", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ritsu Doan", "ranking": 1860 }, { "player_name": "Unai Elgezabal", "ranking": 1861 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jun-Gyu", "ranking": 1862 }, { "player_name": "Amar Muhsin", "ranking": 1863 }, { "player_name": "Claudio González", "ranking": 1864 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bon-cheol Ku", "ranking": 1866 }, { "player_name": "Luke Amos", "ranking": 1867 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Sidikov", "ranking": 1868 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Vizeu", "ranking": 1869 }, { "player_name": "José Miguel Manzaneda", "ranking": 1870 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0047, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9489, "expected_assists": 0.0961, "assists": 0.0772, "assist_rate": 0.0772, "expected_goals": 0.0832, "goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0848, "shots_on_target": 0.3359, "total_shots": 1.067, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.0306, "accurate_pass": 21.4049, "duels_won": 4.8848, "total_long_balls": 2.7804, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6618, "total_own_half_passes": 12.972, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0345, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3704, "crosses_total": 2.3422, "crosses_accurate": 0.4673, "touches": 53.5519, "possession_lost": 13.4311, "dispossessed": 0.6708, "duels_lost": 3.1401, "aerial_won": 0.8424, "aerial_lost": 1.1211, "interceptions": 0.5963, "tackles_won": 2.0491, "tackles": 3.2915, "clearances": 2.5893, "total_contest": 0.6931, "won_contest": 0.2938, "challenges_lost": 0.5418, "fouls": 0.4362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4571, "blocks": 0.3749, "big_chances_created": 0.1583, "big_chances_missed": 0.1393, "xgot": 0.1261, "ball_carries": 11.9439, "total_progression": 40.1718, "progressive_carries": 1.4184, "shots_off_target": 0.7311 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8679, "creative_index": 0.2967, "expectedGoals": 0.0959, "expectedAssists": 0.0517, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4243 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9488791227340698, "model_output": 0.9489, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1347 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0676 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0313 } ], "others": -0.0084, "total": 0.9489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140451 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.065167 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.063595 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.040322 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032223 } ], "others_margin": -0.008762 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09605690836906433, "model_output": 0.0961, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 0.0961, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.1891 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114026 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.044188 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.034936 } ], "others_margin": -0.110518 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07717852294445038, "model_output": 0.0772, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.0772, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075718 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.072242 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065095 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.048544 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.047054 } ], "others_margin": -0.206916 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08320417255163193, "model_output": 0.0832, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 0.0832, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.169622 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.095863 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.072536 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.047711 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.019368 } ], "others_margin": -0.056829 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0847749188542366, "model_output": 0.0848, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.003, "total": 0.0848, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.137586 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130085 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083383 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042603 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.034921 } ], "others_margin": -0.036044 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3358672559261322, "model_output": 0.3359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.3359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135415 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.121268 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.050321 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038207 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.035859 } ], "others_margin": -0.036167 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0669703483581543, "model_output": 1.067, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1285 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0215 } ], "others": -0.052, "total": 1.067, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128504 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042584 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030877 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.028207 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.021479 } ], "others_margin": -0.052088 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.905763626098633, "model_output": 6.9058, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 6.9058, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.077699 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026821 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019803 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018121 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011858 } ], "others_margin": -0.025747 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0965, "assists": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.0775, "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0852, "shots_on_target": 0.3374, "total_shots": 1.072, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3532, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.8464, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.5991, "tackles_won": 2.0587, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4383, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.14, "xgot": 0.1267, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7345 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0965, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.0844, "shots_on_target": 0.3344, "total_shots": 1.0709, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.8464, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.14, "xgot": 0.1267, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7345 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9486, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 2.0587, "after": 2.0489 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0965, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.0844, "shots_on_target": 0.3344, "total_shots": 1.0709, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.8464, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.14, "xgot": 0.1267, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7345 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0965, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.3314, "total_shots": 1.0612, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.1255, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7278, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Olivier Boscagli", "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "skill_edge": 0.0218, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.7379, "defender_skill": 0.6894, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Olivier Boscagli", "market_value": 18500000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6894 } ], "xg_override": 0.0828 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8464, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0709, "after": 1.0612 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7345, "after": 0.7278 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0965, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3314, "total_shots": 1.0612, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.1255, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7278, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Olivier Boscagli", "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3314, "total_shots": 1.0612, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7278, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Olivier Boscagli", "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.006, "creation_factor": 0.8655 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0828, "after": 0.0744 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0965, "after": 0.0867 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3314, "total_shots": 1.0612, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7278, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Olivier Boscagli", "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.006, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1865, "fifa_rank": 868.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3314, "total_shots": 1.0612, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7278, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Olivier Boscagli", "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0717, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.006, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "scorer_weight": 0.0748, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.061, "finishing_factor": 1.006, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9533, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0836, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3314, "total_shots": 1.0612, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 29.167, "accurate_pass": 21.5055, "duels_won": 4.9078, "total_long_balls": 2.7935, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6649, "total_own_half_passes": 13.033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0817, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4238, "crosses_total": 2.3534, "crosses_accurate": 0.4695, "touches": 53.8036, "possession_lost": 13.4942, "dispossessed": 0.674, "duels_lost": 3.1549, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1264, "interceptions": 0.598, "tackles_won": 2.0489, "tackles": 3.307, "clearances": 2.6015, "total_contest": 0.6964, "won_contest": 0.2952, "challenges_lost": 0.5443, "fouls": 0.4428, "fouls_drawn": 0.4551, "blocks": 0.3767, "big_chances_created": 0.159, "big_chances_missed": 0.1387, "xgot": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 12.0, "total_progression": 40.3606, "progressive_carries": 1.4251, "shots_off_target": 0.7278, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Olivier Boscagli", "opponent_faced": "Olivier Boscagli", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0717, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.083, "finishing_factor": 1.006, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.083, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "provider_weight": 0.075, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.1044, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Adam Wharton": { "player_id": 1109771, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 79000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1445, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0737, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1345, "finishing_factor": 0.9956, "creation_factor": 0.8303, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.4316, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0669, "expected_assists": 0.2186, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0822, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.243, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1296, "expected_assists": 0.1477, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0556, "expected_assists": 0.5264, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 699, "combined_rank_score": 336.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 288.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0559, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 385.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0795, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Adam Wharton", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eui-jeong Park", "ranking": 694 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-min Kim", "ranking": 695 }, { "player_name": "Jamal Lewis", "ranking": 696 }, { "player_name": "Lasha Dvali", "ranking": 697 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajdarević", "ranking": 698 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ji-ung Baek", "ranking": 700 }, { "player_name": "Robin Le Normand", "ranking": 701 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Villagra", "ranking": 702 }, { "player_name": "Bo-seob Kim", "ranking": 703 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Retegui", "ranking": 704 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0125, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6666, "expected_assists": 0.159, "assists": 0.1248, "assist_rate": 0.1248, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.3813, "total_shots": 1.0814, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.0567, "accurate_pass": 34.4183, "duels_won": 4.391, "total_long_balls": 3.7415, "accurate_long_balls": 1.93, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0686, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8241, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5941, "crosses_total": 2.6511, "crosses_accurate": 0.9238, "touches": 59.7933, "possession_lost": 14.1455, "dispossessed": 0.7564, "duels_lost": 3.5411, "aerial_won": 0.5555, "aerial_lost": 0.7848, "interceptions": 0.8927, "tackles_won": 0.9698, "tackles": 2.1852, "clearances": 1.5449, "total_contest": 0.4096, "won_contest": 0.2668, "challenges_lost": 1.1018, "fouls": 0.7581, "fouls_drawn": 1.3835, "blocks": 0.2842, "big_chances_created": 0.4965, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0121, "ball_carries": 14.9946, "total_progression": 54.1254, "progressive_carries": 0.7754, "shots_off_target": 0.7001 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8958, "creative_index": 0.7864, "expectedGoals": 0.0326, "expectedAssists": 0.1935, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2464 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.6666356325149536, "model_output": 1.6666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1937 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1481 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1346 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0628 } ], "others": 0.1702, "total": 1.6666, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.196272 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127768 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10347 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.045814 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.042847 } ], "others_margin": 0.107826 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.15904398262500763, "model_output": 0.159, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0198, "total": 0.159, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.132592 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117279 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.114634 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.077774 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.043646 } ], "others_margin": 0.133102 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12482771277427673, "model_output": 0.1248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.1248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.123372 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.085699 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.076695 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063249 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.059352 } ], "others_margin": -0.050117 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0762903168797493, "model_output": 0.0763, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.0763, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.13825 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12307 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.044467 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.030701 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.021991 } ], "others_margin": -0.143525 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0763818770647049, "model_output": 0.0764, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.0764, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.15963 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110789 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.110125 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.041851 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033944 } ], "others_margin": -0.08019 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.38132181763648987, "model_output": 0.3813, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 0.3813, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144478 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.075988 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.031608 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.025843 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024759 } ], "others_margin": 0.019321 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0813757181167603, "model_output": 1.0814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1487 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": -0.0809, "total": 1.0814, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148682 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056763 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.035499 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.033342 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030051 } ], "others_margin": -0.080814 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.079547882080078, "model_output": 7.0795, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1144 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 7.0795, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114355 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.075311 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026387 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015475 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013127 } ], "others_margin": 0.012787 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.881)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.3861, "total_shots": 1.095, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.6842, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 0.5624, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9039, "tackles_won": 0.9819, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7676, "fouls_drawn": 1.4008, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7089 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 79000000, "quality_factor": 0.8811, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.1252, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "shots_on_target": 0.3824, "total_shots": 1.0845, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 0.5624, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7089 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9654, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6842, "after": 2.663 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.095, "after": 1.0845 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9039, "after": 0.9138 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7676, "after": 0.7602 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4008, "after": 1.4059 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.1252, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "shots_on_target": 0.3824, "total_shots": 1.0913, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 0.5624, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7089 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.1252, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "expected_goals": 0.0853, "goals": 0.0847, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.4226, "total_shots": 1.206, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "skill_edge": 0.0315, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.8877, "defender_skill": 0.8177, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8177 } ], "xg_override": 0.0853 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5624, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0913, "after": 1.206 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7089, "after": 0.7834 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3824, "after": 0.4226 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0772, "after": 0.0853 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0766, "after": 0.0847 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0853, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4226, "total_shots": 1.206, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.1445, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4226, "total_shots": 1.206, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9956, "creation_factor": 0.8303 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0853, "after": 0.0766 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.161, "after": 0.1445 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.1445, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4226, "total_shots": 1.206, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9956, "creation_factor": 0.8303, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 699, "fifa_rank": 385.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.1445, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4226, "total_shots": 1.206, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0737, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9956, "creation_factor": 0.8303, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0737, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "scorer_weight": 0.0763, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0622, "finishing_factor": 0.9956, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6875, "expected_assists": 0.1445, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4226, "total_shots": 1.206, "rating": 7.0795, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 44.6074, "accurate_pass": 34.8485, "duels_won": 4.4459, "total_long_balls": 3.7883, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9541, "total_own_half_passes": 15.257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.864, "crosses_total": 2.663, "crosses_accurate": 0.9353, "touches": 60.5407, "possession_lost": 14.3223, "dispossessed": 0.7659, "duels_lost": 3.5854, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7946, "interceptions": 0.9138, "tackles_won": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.2125, "clearances": 1.5642, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.2701, "challenges_lost": 1.1156, "fouls": 0.7602, "fouls_drawn": 1.4059, "blocks": 0.2878, "big_chances_created": 0.5027, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "ball_carries": 15.182, "total_progression": 54.802, "progressive_carries": 0.7851, "shots_off_target": 0.7834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0737, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1345, "finishing_factor": 0.9956, "creation_factor": 0.8303, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1345, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "provider_weight": 0.12, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.167, "creation_factor": 0.8303, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Quinten Timber": { "player_id": 959805, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 177, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxim De Cuyper", "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0937, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0676, "finishing_factor": 1.1925, "creation_factor": 1.0399, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1398, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1185, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1028, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 8, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0195, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1488, "combined_rank_score": 616.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8779, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Quinten Timber", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bojan Mlađović", "ranking": 1483 }, { "player_name": "Farkhod Sokhibzhonov", "ranking": 1484 }, { "player_name": "Florian Lejeune", "ranking": 1485 }, { "player_name": "Dimitrios Valkanis", "ranking": 1486 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Dorgu", "ranking": 1487 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jon Pacheco", "ranking": 1489 }, { "player_name": "Brahim Díaz", "ranking": 1490 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Assadi", "ranking": 1491 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Cristante", "ranking": 1492 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1493 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0273, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8623, "expected_assists": 0.0758, "assists": 0.0808, "assist_rate": 0.0808, "expected_goals": 0.1137, "goals": 0.1455, "goal_rate": 0.1455, "shots_on_target": 0.4638, "total_shots": 1.4178, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 33.4646, "accurate_pass": 24.9816, "duels_won": 7.6836, "total_long_balls": 2.6462, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2668, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7291, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2525, "crosses_total": 0.4935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3952, "possession_lost": 13.6865, "dispossessed": 1.6676, "duels_lost": 5.9158, "aerial_won": 0.5806, "aerial_lost": 1.2667, "interceptions": 0.4595, "tackles_won": 1.6802, "tackles": 3.1677, "clearances": 1.3478, "total_contest": 2.4289, "won_contest": 1.3078, "challenges_lost": 0.2667, "fouls": 1.8604, "fouls_drawn": 2.6276, "blocks": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.3138, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 12.6518, "total_progression": 59.8751, "progressive_carries": 2.2137, "shots_off_target": 0.954 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.4935, "creative_index": 0.3631, "expectedGoals": 0.1025, "expectedAssists": 0.0403, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2267 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8622678518295288, "model_output": 0.8623, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1135 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0742 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.038 } ], "others": -0.0228, "total": 0.8623, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11966 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.076605 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.061825 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.051892 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.042014 } ], "others_margin": -0.026109 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07579247653484344, "model_output": 0.0758, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.0758, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.139243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124992 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.103704 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.068326 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.038234 } ], "others_margin": -0.034294 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08082897961139679, "model_output": 0.0808, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 0.0808, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.125689 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.084491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.076095 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.066933 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.047384 } ], "others_margin": -0.130793 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11370199918746948, "model_output": 0.1137, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 0.1137, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.153875 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104013 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087813 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.059949 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031189 } ], "others_margin": -0.011683 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14548176527023315, "model_output": 0.1455, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": 0.0255, "total": 0.1455, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.17078 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.097514 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.080778 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.072046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055077 } ], "others_margin": 0.192757 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4637543261051178, "model_output": 0.4638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": 0.0303, "total": 0.4638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.183466 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069785 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.068128 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0306 } ], "others_margin": 0.067319 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.417748212814331, "model_output": 1.4177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2915 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1344 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": 0.0462, "total": 1.4177, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.291507 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134437 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.04046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039761 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030359 } ], "others_margin": 0.046131 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.877895355224609, "model_output": 6.8779, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0311, "total": 6.8779, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02914 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017271 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.015353 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014562 } ], "others_margin": -0.031202 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0273, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "assists": 0.083, "assist_rate": 0.083, "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.1495, "goal_rate": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.4764, "total_shots": 1.4565, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 0.5965, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0137, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.98 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0273, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "assists": 0.083, "assist_rate": 0.083, "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.1495, "goal_rate": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.4764, "total_shots": 1.4565, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 0.5965, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0137, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.98 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "assists": 0.083, "assist_rate": 0.083, "expected_goals": 0.1095, "goals": 0.1402, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "shots_on_target": 0.4468, "total_shots": 1.3659, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0128, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.919, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxim De Cuyper", "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "skill_edge": -0.0183, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.7474, "defender_skill": 0.7881, "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.7881 } ], "xg_override": 0.1095 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5965, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4565, "after": 1.3659 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.98, "after": 0.919 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4764, "after": 0.4468 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1495, "after": 0.1402 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1168, "after": 0.1095 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1095, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4468, "total_shots": 1.3659, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0128, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.919, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxim De Cuyper", "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4468, "total_shots": 1.3659, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.919, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxim De Cuyper", "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1925, "creation_factor": 1.0399 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1095, "after": 0.0984 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0779, "after": 0.07 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4468, "total_shots": 1.3659, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.919, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxim De Cuyper", "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1925, "creation_factor": 1.0399, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1488, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4468, "total_shots": 1.3659, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.919, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxim De Cuyper", "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0937, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1925, "creation_factor": 1.0399, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0937, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "scorer_weight": 0.1173, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0957, "finishing_factor": 1.1925, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4468, "total_shots": 1.3659, "rating": 6.8779, "minutes": 86.61, "total_pass": 34.3782, "accurate_pass": 25.6636, "duels_won": 7.8934, "total_long_balls": 2.7184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3014, "total_own_half_passes": 13.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0493, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6143, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.8802, "possession_lost": 14.0601, "dispossessed": 1.7131, "duels_lost": 6.0773, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3013, "interceptions": 0.472, "tackles_won": 1.7261, "tackles": 3.2542, "clearances": 1.3846, "total_contest": 2.4952, "won_contest": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.274, "fouls": 1.9112, "fouls_drawn": 2.6993, "blocks": 0.198, "big_chances_created": 0.3224, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 12.9972, "total_progression": 61.5097, "progressive_carries": 2.2741, "shots_off_target": 0.919, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Maxim De Cuyper", "opponent_faced": "Maxim De Cuyper", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0937, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0676, "finishing_factor": 1.1925, "creation_factor": 1.0399, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0676, "assist_rate": 0.083, "provider_weight": 0.0728, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.1013, "creation_factor": 1.0399, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Anan Khalaili": { "player_id": 1403362, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 183, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0935, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 0.8983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.199, "expected_assists": 0.193, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.1362, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7169, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 10, "tackles_won": 7, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 15, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1553, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1405, "combined_rank_score": 580.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1070.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.882, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anan Khalaili", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rayan", "ranking": 1400 }, { "player_name": "Amir Rrahmani", "ranking": 1401 }, { "player_name": "Josep Chavarría", "ranking": 1402 }, { "player_name": "Abde", "ranking": 1403 }, { "player_name": "Troy Parrott", "ranking": 1404 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Guillermo May", "ranking": 1406 }, { "player_name": "Pubill", "ranking": 1407 }, { "player_name": "Bozhidar Kraev", "ranking": 1408 }, { "player_name": "Aïssa Mandi", "ranking": 1409 }, { "player_name": "Anderson Talisca", "ranking": 1410 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.637, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.637, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0223, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 110.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.82, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.1069, "assists": 0.0933, "assist_rate": 0.0933, "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goals": 0.1248, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "shots_on_target": 0.3549, "total_shots": 1.2856, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 30.616, "accurate_pass": 22.3445, "duels_won": 5.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.2734, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7243, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7243, "crosses_total": 2.7908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2696, "touches": 57.3469, "possession_lost": 15.7117, "dispossessed": 0.2696, "duels_lost": 5.7291, "aerial_won": 1.3716, "aerial_lost": 0.7803, "interceptions": 1.1115, "tackles_won": 1.5457, "tackles": 3.022, "clearances": 2.4856, "total_contest": 2.017, "won_contest": 0.817, "challenges_lost": 2.6447, "fouls": 0.8344, "fouls_drawn": 0.1408, "blocks": 0.4352, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3604, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 10.8012, "total_progression": 58.0858, "progressive_carries": 1.5107, "shots_off_target": 0.9306 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 35.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.5992, "creative_index": 0.3067, "expectedGoals": 0.1949, "expectedAssists": 0.0922, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.174 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9481588006019592, "model_output": 0.9482, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1196 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0707 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0411 } ], "others": -0.0847, "total": 0.9482, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125697 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.067498 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.066091 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.05749 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.038994 } ], "others_margin": -0.085644 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10690858215093613, "model_output": 0.1069, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.1069, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.158135 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11762 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.058734 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.04227 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.039945 } ], "others_margin": -0.110344 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09327876567840576, "model_output": 0.0933, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 0.0933, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.093718 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.081825 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.079028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049868 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04297 } ], "others_margin": -0.180763 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12168455123901367, "model_output": 0.1217, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0123, "total": 0.1217, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.302368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.112732 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.11051 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108945 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061885 } ], "others_margin": -0.096646 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.12478064000606537, "model_output": 0.1248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 0.1248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.272024 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.201667 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.129791 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.095352 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.091872 } ], "others_margin": -0.096669 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3549425005912781, "model_output": 0.3549, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0661 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0341 } ], "others": -0.0701, "total": 0.3549, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.184802 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.177485 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.148772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129851 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077208 } ], "others_margin": -0.180269 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.285563588142395, "model_output": 1.2856, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3761 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1409 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0681 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0467 } ], "others": -0.1612, "total": 1.2856, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.376065 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140868 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.068104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.049074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046672 } ], "others_margin": -0.161203 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.881976127624512, "model_output": 6.882, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 6.882, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028851 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018042 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015173 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.011216 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01039 } ], "others_margin": -0.011539 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0223, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "assists": 0.0954, "assist_rate": 0.0954, "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1276, "goal_rate": 0.1276, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.3143, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.853, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.4022, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1363, "tackles_won": 1.5802, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.853, "fouls_drawn": 0.1439, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3684, "xgot": 0.0601, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9514 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0223, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0236)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "assists": 0.0931, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1246, "goal_rate": 0.1246, "shots_on_target": 0.3543, "total_shots": 1.302, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.4022, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3684, "xgot": 0.0601, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9514 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0236, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9706, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.5802, "after": 1.7149 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.853, "after": 2.9194 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1363, "after": 1.1668 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.853, "after": 0.8711 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1439, "after": 0.1596 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3143, "after": 1.302 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3629, "after": 0.3543 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "assists": 0.0931, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1246, "goal_rate": 0.1246, "shots_on_target": 0.3543, "total_shots": 1.3057, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.4022, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3684, "xgot": 0.0601, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9514 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "assists": 0.0931, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "expected_goals": 0.122, "goals": 0.1222, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "shots_on_target": 0.3476, "total_shots": 1.281, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3614, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9334, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "skill_edge": -0.0568, "height_edge": 0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.6914, "defender_skill": 0.8177, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8177 } ], "xg_override": 0.122 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.4022, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3057, "after": 1.281 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9514, "after": 0.9334 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3684, "after": 0.3614 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3543, "after": 0.3476 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.122, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3476, "total_shots": 1.281, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3614, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9334, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3476, "total_shots": 1.281, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3614, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9334, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 0.8983 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.122, "after": 0.1096 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1093, "after": 0.0982 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3476, "total_shots": 1.281, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3614, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9334, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 0.8983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1405, "fifa_rank": 1070.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3476, "total_shots": 1.281, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3614, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9334, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 0.8983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "scorer_weight": 0.1097, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0895, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3476, "total_shots": 1.281, "rating": 6.882, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 31.2987, "accurate_pass": 22.8428, "duels_won": 5.4707, "total_long_balls": 3.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7628, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.857, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9858, "crosses_total": 2.9194, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 58.6257, "possession_lost": 16.0621, "dispossessed": 0.2756, "duels_lost": 5.8569, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7977, "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles_won": 1.7149, "tackles": 3.0894, "clearances": 2.541, "total_contest": 2.062, "won_contest": 0.8352, "challenges_lost": 2.7037, "fouls": 0.8711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1596, "blocks": 0.4449, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3614, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 11.0421, "total_progression": 59.3811, "progressive_carries": 1.5444, "shots_off_target": 0.9334, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0935, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 0.8983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0935, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "provider_weight": 0.0882, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.1227, "creation_factor": 0.8983, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "player_id": 1471671, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 188, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0229, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1186, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 77, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3127, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3179, "combined_rank_score": 1146.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 526.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8368, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 1767.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.793, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaydee Canvot", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Cresswell", "ranking": 3178 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Julio César Enciso", "ranking": 3180 }, { "player_name": "Franco Mastantuono", "ranking": 3181 }, { "player_name": "Altay Bayındır", "ranking": 3182 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Bragança", "ranking": 3183 }, { "player_name": "Hákon Arnar Haraldsson", "ranking": 3184 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0114, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 25 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.153, "tackles": 1.8258, "tackles_won": 1.1878, "clearances": 4.8876, "aerial_won": 1.8731, "total_shots": 0.4053, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.2575, "accurate_pass": 44.4025, "duels_won": 4.4588, "total_long_balls": 4.9927, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6687, "total_own_half_passes": 31.5227, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.3166, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0858, "crosses_total": 0.3012, "crosses_accurate": 0.1336, "touches": 65.3938, "possession_lost": 7.5203, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 3.2253, "aerial_lost": 1.0103, "total_contest": 0.366, "won_contest": 0.0603, "ball_recovery": 3.3833, "challenges_lost": 1.1151, "fouls": 0.4811, "fouls_drawn": 0.3391, "blocks": 0.7636, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.0504, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0171, "ball_carries": 17.1719, "total_progression": 87.122, "progressive_carries": 1.0521, "key_pass": 0.2253, "shots_off_target": 0.3549 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.2677, "aerialWon": 1.8879, "totalClearance_p90": 5.4585, "totalTackle": 2.1165, "defensive_actions": 3.354 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.152957797050476, "model_output": 1.153, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0675, "total": 1.153, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125926 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.075471 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.023351 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.022936 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01582 } ], "others_margin": 0.060275 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.825779676437378, "model_output": 1.8258, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1916 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0959 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0964 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.086 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.071 } ], "others": -0.1066, "total": 1.8258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.058826 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.055854 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.047292 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.03741 } ], "others_margin": -0.056761 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.1878312826156616, "model_output": 1.1878, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1285 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0792 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0825 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0781 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0531 } ], "others": -0.0878, "total": 1.1878, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140175 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.077474 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.074818 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.066051 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.042506 } ], "others_margin": -0.071265 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.887631416320801, "model_output": 4.8876, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5377 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.2721 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2441 } ], "others": 0.0066, "total": 4.8876, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.186402 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122214 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.068391 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060463 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.051314 } ], "others_margin": 0.001349 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8731449842453003, "model_output": 1.8731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2339 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1859 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1081 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0892 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0684 } ], "others": -0.0529, "total": 1.8731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.156837 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109181 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.058423 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.045761 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034915 } ], "others_margin": -0.027802 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.40534913539886475, "model_output": 0.4053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0802 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 0.4053, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080181 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05121 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.017802 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012364 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.00982 } ], "others_margin": -0.035799 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792999267578125, "model_output": 6.793, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": 0.019, "total": 6.793, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016575 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015411 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014466 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.011525 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008944 } ], "others_margin": 0.019018 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1661, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2014, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.41, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3046, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4866, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "blocks": 0.7723, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.051, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0173, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0173, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9948, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2014, "after": 1.2128 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1661, "after": 1.1564 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4866, "after": 0.4796 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0173, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0173, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0173, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3179, "fifa_rank": 1767.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0301, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0245, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1564, "tackles": 1.8466, "tackles_won": 1.2128, "clearances": 4.9434, "aerial_won": 1.8945, "total_shots": 0.4113, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 89.53, "total_pass": 50.8304, "accurate_pass": 44.9087, "duels_won": 4.5096, "total_long_balls": 5.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6991, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6394, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9483, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.2692, "crosses_total": 0.3002, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 66.1393, "possession_lost": 7.606, "dispossessed": 0.3284, "duels_lost": 3.2621, "aerial_lost": 1.0218, "total_contest": 0.3702, "won_contest": 0.061, "ball_recovery": 3.4219, "challenges_lost": 1.1278, "fouls": 0.4796, "fouls_drawn": 0.3452, "blocks": 0.7723, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 17.3677, "total_progression": 88.1152, "progressive_carries": 1.0641, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.3589, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0229, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0186, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0258, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Chris Richards": { "player_id": 931844, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 188, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.01, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0729, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0703, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0594, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0563, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.037, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1829, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4259, "expected_assists": 0.0989, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 57, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 11, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1160, "combined_rank_score": 512.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 688.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.816, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chris Richards", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vlad Chiricheş", "ranking": 1155 }, { "player_name": "Emil Krafth", "ranking": 1156 }, { "player_name": "Sidny Lopes Cabral", "ranking": 1157 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Christensen", "ranking": 1158 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Collins", "ranking": 1159 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andriy Lunin", "ranking": 1161 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 1162 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 1163 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 1164 }, { "player_name": "Mats Wieffer", "ranking": 1165 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0059, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1499, "tackles": 1.2529, "tackles_won": 0.699, "clearances": 5.8971, "aerial_won": 2.7396, "total_shots": 0.5585, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 47.8186, "accurate_pass": 41.4605, "duels_won": 4.2641, "total_long_balls": 5.0601, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7041, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2929, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1676, "crosses_total": 0.4264, "crosses_accurate": 0.0968, "touches": 66.4505, "possession_lost": 9.5843, "dispossessed": 0.3118, "duels_lost": 3.4228, "aerial_lost": 2.012, "total_contest": 0.4129, "won_contest": 0.1709, "ball_recovery": 2.6116, "challenges_lost": 0.294, "fouls": 0.563, "fouls_drawn": 0.0525, "blocks": 1.069, "goals": 0.01, "goal_rate": 0.01, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0806, "expected_assists": 0.023, "shots_on_target": 0.2271, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0757, "ball_carries": 15.662, "total_progression": 27.6019, "progressive_carries": 0.2747, "key_pass": 0.2477, "shots_off_target": 0.3314 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.9704, "aerialWon": 2.5986, "totalClearance_p90": 6.2096, "totalTackle": 1.1257, "defensive_actions": 2.3514 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1498949527740479, "model_output": 1.1499, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1191 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0807 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.02 } ], "others": 0.0083, "total": 1.1499, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129536 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.079106 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.031752 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.024081 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.017656 } ], "others_margin": 0.007347 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2529345750808716, "model_output": 1.2529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1786 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0819 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0556 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.1228, "total": 1.2529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120754 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.053576 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.038093 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.02344 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.0171 } ], "others_margin": -0.093443 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6989901065826416, "model_output": 0.699, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1066 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.035 } ], "others": -0.1022, "total": 0.699, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117632 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.051888 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.043742 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.043326 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042739 } ], "others_margin": -0.136427 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.897089958190918, "model_output": 5.8971, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.8252 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.567 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3493 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3124 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.163 } ], "others": 0.2475, "total": 5.8971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.215436 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125013 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.069885 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058632 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.029273 } ], "others_margin": 0.042864 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.7396090030670166, "model_output": 2.7396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5336 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2292 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1903 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1763 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1195 } ], "others": 0.1134, "total": 2.7396, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.327427 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113257 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.085195 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.072949 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.046581 } ], "others_margin": 0.042272 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5585112571716309, "model_output": 0.5585, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0291, "total": 0.5585, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020588 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010325 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008677 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.008657 } ], "others_margin": 0.029072 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815964698791504, "model_output": 6.816, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": 0.0198, "total": 6.816, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013781 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012032 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.009905 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007595 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.007375 } ], "others_margin": 0.019828 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1567, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7031, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5618, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4289, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 1.0753, "goals": 0.0101, "goal_rate": 0.0101, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.2284, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 25000000, "quality_factor": 0.6773, "boost_factor": 1.0059, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5612, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goals": 0.01, "goal_rate": 0.01, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9998, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1567, "after": 1.165 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7031, "after": 0.7109 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5663, "after": 0.5607 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goals": 0.01, "goal_rate": 0.01, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goals": 0.01, "goal_rate": 0.01, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goal_rate": 0.01, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goal_rate": 0.01, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0729, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0811, "after": 0.0729 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goal_rate": 0.01, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0729, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1160, "fifa_rank": 688.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goal_rate": 0.01, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0729, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0703, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.01, "scorer_weight": 0.0583, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0475, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.165, "tackles": 1.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7109, "clearances": 5.9319, "aerial_won": 2.7558, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.816, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.1007, "accurate_pass": 41.7051, "duels_won": 4.2893, "total_long_balls": 5.09, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7142, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4598, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2453, "crosses_total": 0.4247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0974, "touches": 66.8426, "possession_lost": 9.6408, "dispossessed": 0.3136, "duels_lost": 3.443, "aerial_lost": 2.0239, "total_contest": 0.4153, "won_contest": 0.1719, "ball_recovery": 2.627, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.5607, "fouls_drawn": 0.0523, "blocks": 1.0753, "goal_rate": 0.01, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0729, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "shots_on_target": 0.2311, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 15.7544, "total_progression": 27.7648, "progressive_carries": 0.2763, "key_pass": 0.2492, "shots_off_target": 0.3334, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0703, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0166, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0232, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jefferson Lerma": { "player_id": 355796, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 179, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1199, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.815, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.074, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0481, "finishing_factor": 0.9204, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5065, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2563, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2242, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1071, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025034, "match_date": "2026-04-20", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1273, "expected_assists": 0.1559, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023999, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.632, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2942, "combined_rank_score": 981.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 189.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.22, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 1773.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8333, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jefferson Lerma", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "ranking": 2937 }, { "player_name": "Íñigo Lekue", "ranking": 2938 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Luque Notaro", "ranking": 2939 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Aškovski", "ranking": 2940 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Rosier", "ranking": 2941 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lorenzo Capicchioni", "ranking": 2943 }, { "player_name": "Gustav Isaksen", "ranking": 2944 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Wolfinger", "ranking": 2945 }, { "player_name": "Léyser Chaverra", "ranking": 2946 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Dinamarca", "ranking": 2947 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9986, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6644, "expected_assists": 0.055, "assists": 0.055, "assist_rate": 0.055, "expected_goals": 0.1052, "goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.0919, "shots_on_target": 0.3338, "total_shots": 1.1098, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.0995, "accurate_pass": 31.6863, "duels_won": 5.6255, "total_long_balls": 5.4474, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4264, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.111, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5753, "crosses_total": 0.4125, "crosses_accurate": 0.276, "touches": 55.057, "possession_lost": 11.7155, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 4.9337, "aerial_won": 2.7194, "aerial_lost": 2.1274, "interceptions": 1.3273, "tackles_won": 0.6018, "tackles": 1.6306, "clearances": 3.1632, "total_contest": 0.2461, "won_contest": 0.1225, "challenges_lost": 1.123, "fouls": 1.1787, "fouls_drawn": 1.153, "blocks": 0.1127, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.2909, "xgot": 0.164, "ball_carries": 11.6064, "total_progression": 23.1332, "progressive_carries": 0.3302, "shots_off_target": 0.776 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9272, "creative_index": 0.1363, "expectedGoals": 0.1466, "expectedAssists": 0.0455, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4119 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.664418637752533, "model_output": 0.6644, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1261 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1057 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0289 } ], "others": -0.1157, "total": 0.6644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132066 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.109528 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.083567 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.037793 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036352 } ], "others_margin": -0.160481 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05501660332083702, "model_output": 0.055, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.055, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.154278 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135886 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.110543 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.070312 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.05126 } ], "others_margin": -0.192013 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.05499640852212906, "model_output": 0.055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 0.055, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.148061 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.091529 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.080724 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.062699 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061051 } ], "others_margin": -0.178798 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10517530888319016, "model_output": 0.1052, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": 0.1052, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.227299 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.110312 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.097968 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.050786 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.043483 } ], "others_margin": -0.011485 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09194556623697281, "model_output": 0.0919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 0.0919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.179842 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.140301 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.127257 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.095454 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.088951 } ], "others_margin": 0.032607 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.33377525210380554, "model_output": 0.3338, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 0.3338, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.145163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134288 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.132484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054917 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.020247 } ], "others_margin": -0.047403 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1097724437713623, "model_output": 1.1098, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1603 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 1.1098, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.160292 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.061606 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.045385 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038818 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024296 } ], "others_margin": -0.015311 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.83331298828125, "model_output": 6.8333, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 6.8333, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029354 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018582 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007779 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.007237 } ], "others_margin": -0.02175 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0549, "assists": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "expected_goals": 0.105, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.3333, "total_shots": 1.1082, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 2.7156, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2905, "xgot": 0.1638, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.7749 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0549, "assists": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "expected_goals": 0.105, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.3333, "total_shots": 1.1082, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 2.7156, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2905, "xgot": 0.1638, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.7749 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0549, "assists": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "expected_goals": 0.0856, "goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "shots_on_target": 0.2716, "total_shots": 0.9032, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2368, "xgot": 0.1335, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.815, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.815, "skill_edge": -0.1539, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.4758, "defender_skill": 0.8177, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8177 } ], "xg_override": 0.0856 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 2.7156, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1082, "after": 0.9032 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7749, "after": 0.6315 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3333, "after": 0.2716 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2905, "after": 0.2368 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1638, "after": 0.1335 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.105, "after": 0.0856 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0918, "after": 0.0748 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0549, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0856, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2716, "total_shots": 0.9032, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2368, "xgot": 0.1335, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.815, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2716, "total_shots": 0.9032, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2368, "xgot": 0.1199, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.815, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9204, "creation_factor": 1.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0856, "after": 0.0769 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0549, "after": 0.0493 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2716, "total_shots": 0.9032, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2368, "xgot": 0.1199, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.815, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9204, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2942, "fifa_rank": 1773.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2716, "total_shots": 0.9032, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2368, "xgot": 0.1199, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.815, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.074, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9204, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "scorer_weight": 0.0708, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0577, "finishing_factor": 0.9204, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6635, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0748, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2716, "total_shots": 0.9032, "rating": 6.8333, "minutes": 83.8, "total_pass": 41.042, "accurate_pass": 31.6419, "duels_won": 5.6176, "total_long_balls": 5.4398, "accurate_long_balls": 2.423, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5563, "crosses_total": 0.4119, "crosses_accurate": 0.2756, "touches": 54.9799, "possession_lost": 11.6991, "dispossessed": 0.3805, "duels_lost": 4.9268, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 2.1244, "interceptions": 1.3254, "tackles_won": 0.601, "tackles": 1.6283, "clearances": 3.1588, "total_contest": 0.2458, "won_contest": 0.1223, "challenges_lost": 1.1214, "fouls": 1.177, "fouls_drawn": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.1125, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2368, "xgot": 0.1199, "ball_carries": 11.5902, "total_progression": 23.1008, "progressive_carries": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.815, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yasin Ayari", "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.074, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0481, "finishing_factor": 0.9204, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0481, "assist_rate": 0.0549, "provider_weight": 0.0493, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0686, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Walter Benítez": { "player_id": 249859, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 193, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 40, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4398, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.0625 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.8715 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.8144 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3586 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1653, "combined_rank_score": 672.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1087.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0808, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Walter Benítez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking": 1648 }, { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Pedraza", "ranking": 1650 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Provod", "ranking": 1651 }, { "player_name": "Isi Palazón", "ranking": 1652 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Khumoyun Sherbutaev", "ranking": 1654 }, { "player_name": "Kuvonchbek Khushvaktov", "ranking": 1655 }, { "player_name": "Florian Grillitsch", "ranking": 1656 }, { "player_name": "Zakaria Labyad", "ranking": 1657 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Odriozola", "ranking": 1658 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9902, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0691, "goals_prevented": 0.0208, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.0866, "accurate_pass": 18.8088, "total_long_balls": 18.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 6.442, "touches": 40.0937, "clearances": 1.3138, "ball_recovery": 6.5852, "high_claims": 1.7191, "punches": 1.0, "aerial_won": 0.2267, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.4009, "possession_lost": 12.2778, "duels_won": 0.2267, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7654, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8734 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateLongBalls": 6.442, "save_contribution": 3.8667, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9464, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 12.8734, "passValueNormalized": 0.0681, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 13.7654 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0691070556640625, "model_output": 3.0691, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0722 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 3.0691, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.024267 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.008385 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.006919 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.006332 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.006133 } ], "others_margin": -0.009412 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.020768871530890465, "model_output": 0.0208, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0443 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 0.0208, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.044301 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.020976 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014244 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013363 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.011608 } ], "others_margin": -0.000397 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.08084774017334, "model_output": 7.0808, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 7.0808, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.04893 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016308 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014758 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.013835 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013383 } ], "others_margin": -0.023768 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9902, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.9902, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4398, "shots_faced": 13.7, "expected_saves": 3.36, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4398 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4398, "shots_faced": 13.7, "expected_saves": 3.36, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4398, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.7, "after": 13.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.36, "after": 3.33 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.15, "after": 1.14 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4398, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1653, "fifa_rank": 1087.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4398, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.039, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 7.0808, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.782, "accurate_pass": 18.6245, "total_long_balls": 18.5362, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3789, "touches": 39.7008, "clearances": 1.3009, "ball_recovery": 6.5207, "high_claims": 1.7023, "punches": 0.9902, "aerial_won": 0.2245, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.3774, "possession_lost": 12.1575, "duels_won": 0.2245, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7472, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4398, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Dean Henderson": { "player_id": 788134, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.026, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 7, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.1892 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.917 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3452 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.2894 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1682 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.0125 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.026 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.0657 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "goals_prevented": -1.0743 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025034, "match_date": "2026-04-20", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1979 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 824, "combined_rank_score": 393.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 413.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9297, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 373.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9392, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michal Beran", "ranking": 819 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jisung", "ranking": 820 }, { "player_name": "Florian Thauvin", "ranking": 821 }, { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 }, { "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking": 823 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 }, { "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking": 827 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Akhmadaliev", "ranking": 829 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 5.471593798579361, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.154, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (40 historical appearances) to 5.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.15); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8752, "goals_prevented": -0.1344, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.9733, "accurate_pass": 16.1819, "total_long_balls": 15.7528, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0854, "touches": 38.34, "clearances": 1.7338, "ball_recovery": 8.9459, "high_claims": 0.8261, "punches": 1.3009, "aerial_won": 0.2128, "sweeper_actions": 0.7835, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7835, "saves_inside_box": 2.6185, "possession_lost": 11.8133, "duels_won": 0.2775, "duels_lost": 0.0539, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.0512, "fouls_drawn": 0.0237, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1192, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4026 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:04:09.876591+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 200, "rows": 7041 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 4.0854, "save_contribution": 3.1114, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8667, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.4027, "passValueNormalized": 0.0502, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 15.1192 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8752472400665283, "model_output": 2.8752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.941, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2154 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0202 } ], "others": 0.0368, "total": 2.8752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.078763, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076069 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.011982 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011391 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010009 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.007146 } ], "others_margin": 0.012916 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.1344488263130188, "model_output": -0.1344, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0281, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.0039, "total": -0.1344, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028113, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.034921 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.024259 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.021478 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014898 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.01462 } ], "others_margin": 0.003839 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.93918514251709, "model_output": 6.9392, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0354 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9974, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.9392, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.997403, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.033228 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019141 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017345 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.015762 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014305 } ], "others_margin": -0.028244 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8948, "goals_prevented": -0.1354, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.1635, "accurate_pass": 16.2919, "total_long_balls": 15.8599, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1132, "touches": 38.6007, "clearances": 1.7456, "ball_recovery": 9.0067, "high_claims": 0.8317, "punches": 1.3097, "aerial_won": 0.2142, "sweeper_actions": 0.7888, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7888, "saves_inside_box": 2.6363, "possession_lost": 11.8936, "duels_won": 0.2794, "duels_lost": 0.0543, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.0515, "fouls_drawn": 0.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 15.222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4937 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8776, "goals_prevented": -0.1354, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.1635, "accurate_pass": 16.2919, "total_long_balls": 15.8599, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1132, "touches": 38.6007, "clearances": 1.7456, "ball_recovery": 9.0067, "high_claims": 0.8317, "punches": 1.3097, "aerial_won": 0.2142, "sweeper_actions": 0.7888, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7888, "saves_inside_box": 2.6363, "possession_lost": 11.8936, "duels_won": 0.2794, "duels_lost": 0.0543, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.051, "fouls_drawn": 0.0237, "total_own_half_passes": 15.222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4937 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8948, "after": 2.8776 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 5.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.15)", "stats": { "saves": 0.5525, "goals_prevented": -0.026, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 5.47, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.192, "appearance_probability": 0.154 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.5525, "goals_prevented": -0.026, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.5525, "goals_prevented": -0.026, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.154, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.5525, "goals_prevented": -0.026, "rating": 6.9392, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 824, "fifa_rank": 373.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Honest Ahanor": { "player_id": 1634980, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 184, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 4.0464, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3729, "combined_rank_score": 1714.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 637.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7556, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 2791.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.712, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Honest Ahanor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Facundo Bernal", "ranking": 3724 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Fernández", "ranking": 3725 }, { "player_name": "Veljko Birmančević", "ranking": 3726 }, { "player_name": "Jay DaSilva", "ranking": 3727 }, { "player_name": "Oskar Pietuszewski", "ranking": 3728 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandru Mitriță", "ranking": 3730 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Carvalho", "ranking": 3731 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Buonanotte", "ranking": 3732 }, { "player_name": "Shea Charles", "ranking": 3733 }, { "player_name": "Mojmír Chytil", "ranking": 3734 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.952352570132028, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.36147057136963767, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0602, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (2 historical appearances) to 15.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.36)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.4599, "tackles_won": 0.2349, "clearances": 1.5903, "aerial_won": 0.7388, "total_shots": 0.1544, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 27.5135, "accurate_pass": 24.2973, "duels_won": 4.6757, "total_long_balls": 2.2973, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4595, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4054, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8919, "crosses_total": 0.4595, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.2432, "possession_lost": 4.5946, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8378, "aerial_lost": 0.4595, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.4595, "fouls": 0.9189, "fouls_drawn": 2.2973, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.4865, "total_progression": 68.915, "progressive_carries": 0.9189, "key_pass": 0.4595, "shots_off_target": 0.1544 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.8378, "aerialWon": 1.4595, "totalClearance_p90": 14.4865, "totalTackle": 0.9189, "defensive_actions": 1.3784 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.37679606676101685, "model_output": 0.3768, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4544 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.3768, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.750404 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.134429 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.050356 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.03364 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.032435 } ], "others_margin": 0.007027 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4598845839500427, "model_output": 0.4599, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7614 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0841, "total": 0.4599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.792249 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.040063 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.038606 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035075 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.033212 } ], "others_margin": -0.167961 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.23491789400577545, "model_output": 0.2349, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5047 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0573, "total": 0.2349, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.893626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.068143 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.039904 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.035961 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.034975 } ], "others_margin": -0.218281 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5903362035751343, "model_output": 1.5903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2397 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3183 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0766 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0523 } ], "others": 0.0341, "total": 1.5903, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.056826 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.236514 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.051992 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.047124 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034155 } ], "others_margin": 0.021613 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7387637495994568, "model_output": 0.7388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7904 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0386 } ], "others": -0.038, "total": 0.7388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.852987 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.085767 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.084189 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059336 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050999 } ], "others_margin": -0.050214 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15444865822792053, "model_output": 0.1544, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2023 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0738 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 0.1544, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.073833 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.01698 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014826 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.013985 } ], "others_margin": -0.032068 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.712039470672607, "model_output": 6.712, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 6.712, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.021743 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014318 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013295 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.0121 } ], "others_margin": 0.003547 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0602, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3995, "tackles": 0.4876, "tackles_won": 0.2491, "clearances": 1.6861, "aerial_won": 0.7832, "total_shots": 0.1637, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 29.1698, "accurate_pass": 25.76, "duels_won": 4.9572, "total_long_balls": 2.4356, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4872, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7942, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3328, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4272, "crosses_total": 0.4872, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.6658, "possession_lost": 4.8712, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9484, "aerial_lost": 0.4872, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9484, "challenges_lost": 0.4872, "fouls": 0.9742, "fouls_drawn": 2.4356, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.2382, "total_progression": 73.0637, "progressive_carries": 0.9742, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.1637 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0602, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3319, "tackles": 0.405, "tackles_won": 0.2069, "clearances": 1.4006, "aerial_won": 0.6506, "total_shots": 0.136, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 24.231, "accurate_pass": 21.3985, "duels_won": 4.1179, "total_long_balls": 2.0232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4047, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5674, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.831, "crosses_total": 0.4047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 35.4419, "possession_lost": 4.0464, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6185, "aerial_lost": 0.4872, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6185, "challenges_lost": 0.4872, "fouls": 0.8093, "fouls_drawn": 2.0232, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9968, "total_progression": 60.693, "progressive_carries": 0.8093, "key_pass": 0.4047, "shots_off_target": 0.136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.95, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8307, "appearance_probability": 0.361 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3319, "tackles": 0.405, "tackles_won": 0.2069, "clearances": 1.4006, "aerial_won": 0.6506, "total_shots": 0.136, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 24.231, "accurate_pass": 21.3985, "duels_won": 4.1179, "total_long_balls": 2.0232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4047, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5674, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.831, "crosses_total": 0.4047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 35.4419, "possession_lost": 4.0464, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6185, "aerial_lost": 0.4872, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6185, "challenges_lost": 0.4872, "fouls": 0.8093, "fouls_drawn": 2.0232, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9968, "total_progression": 60.693, "progressive_carries": 0.8093, "key_pass": 0.4047, "shots_off_target": 0.136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3319, "tackles": 0.405, "tackles_won": 0.2069, "clearances": 1.4006, "aerial_won": 0.6506, "total_shots": 0.136, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 24.231, "accurate_pass": 21.3985, "duels_won": 4.1179, "total_long_balls": 2.0232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4047, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5674, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.831, "crosses_total": 0.4047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 35.4419, "possession_lost": 4.0464, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6185, "aerial_lost": 0.4872, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6185, "challenges_lost": 0.4872, "fouls": 0.8093, "fouls_drawn": 2.0232, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9968, "total_progression": 60.693, "progressive_carries": 0.8093, "key_pass": 0.4047, "shots_off_target": 0.136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.361, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3319, "tackles": 0.405, "tackles_won": 0.2069, "clearances": 1.4006, "aerial_won": 0.6506, "total_shots": 0.136, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 24.231, "accurate_pass": 21.3985, "duels_won": 4.1179, "total_long_balls": 2.0232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4047, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5674, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.831, "crosses_total": 0.4047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 35.4419, "possession_lost": 4.0464, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6185, "aerial_lost": 0.4872, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.6185, "challenges_lost": 0.4872, "fouls": 0.8093, "fouls_drawn": 2.0232, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.9968, "total_progression": 60.693, "progressive_carries": 0.8093, "key_pass": 0.4047, "shots_off_target": 0.136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3729, "fifa_rank": 2791.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Chadi Riad": { "player_id": 1064218, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 186, "market_value": 19400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1848, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.035, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023981, "match_date": "2026-03-05", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 68, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023978, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024008, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025209, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025143, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 62, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025107, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0883, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3789, "combined_rank_score": 1771.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 856.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5667, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 2686.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7529, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chadi Riad", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Vázquez", "ranking": 3784 }, { "player_name": "Çağlar Söyüncü", "ranking": 3785 }, { "player_name": "Victor Nelsson", "ranking": 3786 }, { "player_name": "Ilyas Ansah", "ranking": 3787 }, { "player_name": "Kristjan Asllani", "ranking": 3788 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Adalberto Carrasquilla", "ranking": 3790 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Dibling", "ranking": 3791 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Widell Zetterström", "ranking": 3792 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Crépeau", "ranking": 3793 }, { "player_name": "Pau Navarro", "ranking": 3794 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.758, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 10, "data_confidence": 0.758, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3154732112477, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.232, "market_value_adjustment": 1.012, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (10 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles": 0.5546, "tackles_won": 0.3252, "clearances": 1.8742, "aerial_won": 0.7136, "total_shots": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 27.3683, "accurate_pass": 21.8241, "duels_won": 2.6025, "total_long_balls": 2.9417, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6696, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3713, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4529, "crosses_total": 0.6608, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.863, "possession_lost": 6.4859, "dispossessed": 0.2809, "duels_lost": 3.2157, "aerial_lost": 1.4383, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2809, "ball_recovery": 0.6113, "challenges_lost": 0.7775, "fouls": 0.7191, "fouls_drawn": 0.3304, "blocks": 0.3887, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2809, "assist_rate": 0.2809, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "expected_assists": 0.005, "shots_on_target": 0.2809, "big_chances_created": 0.2809, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1808, "total_progression": 40.4905, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2809, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:00.533351+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 625, "rows": 21030 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1868, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1588, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1349, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1147, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0975, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0829, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0704, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0599, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0509, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-25", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0433, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 10.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.9627, "aerialWon": 1.4097, "totalClearance_p90": 4.7919, "totalTackle": 1.109, "defensive_actions": 2.1167 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.38123518228530884, "model_output": 0.3812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2924 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0252 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0247 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0228 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8609, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4873 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 0.3812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.149807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.834919 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.042857 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041784 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016441 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.015671 } ], "others_margin": -0.032141 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5546189546585083, "model_output": 0.5546, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2589 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3915, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7589 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0431, "total": 0.5546, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.330386, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.788332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.030172 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.023167 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.022341 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.018834 } ], "others_margin": -0.074683 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3251520097255707, "model_output": 0.3252, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0673 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8542, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4693 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0412, "total": 0.3252, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157629, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.797259 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.036415 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.033232 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.029501 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.023287 } ], "others_margin": -0.118969 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8741902112960815, "model_output": 1.8742, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2949 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0204 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4327, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0743 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2186 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1305 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0945 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0444 } ], "others": 0.1166, "total": 1.8742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.927005 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.149213 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.07953 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05385 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.024972 } ], "others_margin": 0.064204 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7136497497558594, "model_output": 0.7136, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3773, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7826 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0384 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0233 } ], "others": 0.0465, "total": 0.7136, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320134, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.839837 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.062602 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.054551 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037842 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.03558 } ], "others_margin": 0.067448 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2809, "model_output": 0.1475, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4745, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2287 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 0.1475, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.474501, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228743 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030473 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.023245 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013428 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.007527 } ], "others_margin": -0.023629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752894401550293, "model_output": 6.7529, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 6.7529, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.784704, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018069 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013511 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012443 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010747 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.008389 } ], "others_margin": -0.006921 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3858, "tackles": 0.5613, "tackles_won": 0.3291, "clearances": 1.8967, "aerial_won": 0.7222, "total_shots": 0.2843, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 27.6967, "accurate_pass": 22.086, "duels_won": 2.6337, "total_long_balls": 2.977, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6776, "total_own_half_passes": 16.609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5438, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5423, "crosses_total": 0.6687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.2574, "possession_lost": 6.5637, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 3.2543, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.2843, "won_contest": 0.2843, "ball_recovery": 0.6186, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.7277, "fouls_drawn": 0.3344, "blocks": 0.3934, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2843, "assist_rate": 0.2843, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.2843, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.303, "total_progression": 40.9764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0115)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3855, "tackles": 0.5613, "tackles_won": 0.3295, "clearances": 1.8967, "aerial_won": 0.7222, "total_shots": 0.281, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 27.6967, "accurate_pass": 22.086, "duels_won": 2.6337, "total_long_balls": 2.977, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6776, "total_own_half_passes": 16.609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5438, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5423, "crosses_total": 0.661, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.2574, "possession_lost": 6.5637, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 3.2543, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.2843, "won_contest": 0.2843, "ball_recovery": 0.6186, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.7276, "fouls_drawn": 0.3305, "blocks": 0.3934, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.281, "assist_rate": 0.281, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.281, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.303, "total_progression": 40.9764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0115, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2882, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.6687, "after": 0.661 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.9 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2127, "tackles": 0.3098, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "clearances": 1.0467, "aerial_won": 0.3986, "total_shots": 0.1551, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 14.32, "total_pass": 15.2849, "accurate_pass": 12.1886, "duels_won": 1.4535, "total_long_balls": 1.6429, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3739, "total_own_half_passes": 9.166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1624, "crosses_total": 0.3648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3537, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 1.7959, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.1569, "won_contest": 0.1569, "ball_recovery": 0.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.4015, "fouls_drawn": 0.1824, "blocks": 0.2171, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1551, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.1551, "big_chances_created": 0.1569, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6859, "total_progression": 22.6136, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1569, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.32, "projection_minutes": 25.94, "minutes_scale": 0.5519, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2127, "tackles": 0.3098, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "clearances": 1.0467, "aerial_won": 0.3986, "total_shots": 0.1551, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 14.32, "total_pass": 15.2849, "accurate_pass": 12.1886, "duels_won": 1.4535, "total_long_balls": 1.6429, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3739, "total_own_half_passes": 9.166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1624, "crosses_total": 0.3648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3537, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 1.7959, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.1569, "won_contest": 0.1569, "ball_recovery": 0.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.4015, "fouls_drawn": 0.1824, "blocks": 0.2171, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1551, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.1551, "big_chances_created": 0.1569, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6859, "total_progression": 22.6136, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1569, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2127, "tackles": 0.3098, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "clearances": 1.0467, "aerial_won": 0.3986, "total_shots": 0.1551, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 14.32, "total_pass": 15.2849, "accurate_pass": 12.1886, "duels_won": 1.4535, "total_long_balls": 1.6429, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3739, "total_own_half_passes": 9.166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1624, "crosses_total": 0.3648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3537, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 1.7959, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.1569, "won_contest": 0.1569, "ball_recovery": 0.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.4015, "fouls_drawn": 0.1824, "blocks": 0.2171, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.1551, "big_chances_created": 0.1569, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6859, "total_progression": 22.6136, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1569, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2127, "tackles": 0.3098, "tackles_won": 0.1818, "clearances": 1.0467, "aerial_won": 0.3986, "total_shots": 0.1551, "rating": 6.7529, "minutes": 14.32, "total_pass": 15.2849, "accurate_pass": 12.1886, "duels_won": 1.4535, "total_long_balls": 1.6429, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3739, "total_own_half_passes": 9.166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1624, "crosses_total": 0.3648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3537, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 1.7959, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.1569, "won_contest": 0.1569, "ball_recovery": 0.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.4015, "fouls_drawn": 0.1824, "blocks": 0.2171, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.1551, "big_chances_created": 0.1569, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6859, "total_progression": 22.6136, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1569, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3789, "fifa_rank": 2686.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Óscar Mingueza": { "player_id": 859773, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 184, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083248, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3524, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083123, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2694, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 896, "combined_rank_score": 419.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 419.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9242, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7267, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 }, { "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking": 893 }, { "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking": 894 }, { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Moleiro", "ranking": 897 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Hormazábal", "ranking": 898 }, { "player_name": "Do-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 899 }, { "player_name": "Jorge de Frutos", "ranking": 900 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Silva", "ranking": 901 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.707, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0041, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (36 historical appearances) to 19.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 16.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4234, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0406, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goals": 0.0278, "goal_rate": 0.0278, "shots_on_target": 0.0783, "total_shots": 0.2908, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6343, "accurate_pass": 11.4926, "duels_won": 1.2614, "total_long_balls": 1.0371, "accurate_long_balls": 0.373, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.71, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7827, "crosses_total": 1.1259, "crosses_accurate": 0.1877, "touches": 20.2978, "possession_lost": 4.2571, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.2482, "aerial_won": 0.1243, "aerial_lost": 0.2223, "interceptions": 0.0169, "tackles_won": 0.5856, "tackles": 0.8784, "clearances": 0.3482, "total_contest": 0.2031, "won_contest": 0.1027, "challenges_lost": 0.4485, "fouls": 0.33, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.0881, "big_chances_created": 0.1385, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 15.58, "progressive_carries": 0.3598, "shots_off_target": 0.2125 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0647, "creative_index": 0.2836, "expectedGoals": 0.0016, "expectedAssists": 0.0715, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0303 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.42344287037849426, "model_output": 0.4234, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.424 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0272, "total": 0.4234, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.643997 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.07552 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.030807 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028951 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024447 } ], "others_margin": -0.06194 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.039081037044525146, "model_output": 0.0391, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0011 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 0.0391, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604975 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.071086 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.044872 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027913 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025968 } ], "others_margin": -0.061639 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.040632978081703186, "model_output": 0.0406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.308566 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.113835 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.104272 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.072139 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.06103 } ], "others_margin": -0.226321 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.025676172226667404, "model_output": 0.0257, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0012 } ], "others": -0.0003, "total": 0.0257, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.497296 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.42231 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.224577 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.098144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043186 } ], "others_margin": -0.015353 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.02784869074821472, "model_output": 0.0278, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.0278, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.516459 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.244104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.17861 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093203 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.07366 } ], "others_margin": -0.149986 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07834213227033615, "model_output": 0.0783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1566 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0157, "total": 0.0783, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.655683 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.326791 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.275284 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.136979 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.123074 } ], "others_margin": -0.181129 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2908128798007965, "model_output": 0.2908, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3371 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2532 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0368 } ], "others": -0.0657, "total": 0.2908, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.253172 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050516 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.038593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036837 } ], "others_margin": -0.065721 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.726696014404297, "model_output": 6.7267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0925 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 6.7267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092518 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.022019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013277 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011193 } ], "others_margin": 0.011658 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4252, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0787, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1305, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.588, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3314, "fouls_drawn": 0.1566, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2134 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4252, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0786, "total_shots": 0.2918, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1293, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3311, "fouls_drawn": 0.1564, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2134 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.198, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.01, "projection_minutes": 17.82, "minutes_scale": 1.0668, "appearance_probability": 0.707 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.707 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0275, "after": 0.0175 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0418, "after": 0.0266 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 896, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "scorer_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "provider_weight": 0.0271, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0377, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Zavier Gozo": { "player_id": 1578999, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 180, "market_value": 12800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4898, "combined_rank_score": 2992.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 976.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5008.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6182, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zavier Gozo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jesús Ramírez", "ranking": 4893 }, { "player_name": "Bright Arrey-Mbi", "ranking": 4894 }, { "player_name": "Damián Rodríguez", "ranking": 4895 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio De Arruabarrena", "ranking": 4896 }, { "player_name": "Anzor Mekvabishvili", "ranking": 4897 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jean Baptiste Gorby", "ranking": 4899 }, { "player_name": "Gabri Martínez", "ranking": 4900 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Silva", "ranking": 4901 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Aranda", "ranking": 4902 }, { "player_name": "Ryunosuke Sato", "ranking": 4903 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.378, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.378, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.701, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0107, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 23.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (2 historical appearances) to 22.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 23.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2326, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0331, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1671, "total_shots": 0.5014, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 17.8, "total_pass": 2.3784, "accurate_pass": 1.9189, "duels_won": 0.4595, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9189, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4595, "crosses_total": 0.5405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.8378, "possession_lost": 3.9189, "dispossessed": 0.4595, "duels_lost": 4.4595, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0811, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4595, "tackles": 0.4595, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.4595, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0, "total_progression": 4.2369, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3343 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.0003, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0006, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.23260237276554108, "model_output": 0.2326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4539 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0581 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.02 } ], "others": -0.0698, "total": 0.2326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.709826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.141807 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.100415 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.066512 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.06402 } ], "others_margin": -0.262656 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.021013788878917694, "model_output": 0.021, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 0.021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589327 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.264394 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.114749 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.086347 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.071624 } ], "others_margin": -0.278535 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.033102646470069885, "model_output": 0.0331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 0.0331, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338946 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.249002 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.132014 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.10639 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.095784 } ], "others_margin": -0.238502 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03983340412378311, "model_output": 0.0398, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.0398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.379646 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.178443 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.156048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.106964 } ], "others_margin": 0.026653 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04891044273972511, "model_output": 0.0489, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.0489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444538 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.225291 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.218146 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.10419 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.077083 } ], "others_margin": 0.168052 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.16709981858730316, "model_output": 0.1671, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.15 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0257, "total": 0.1671, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.617372 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.293264 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.209752 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.169041 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.116687 } ], "others_margin": 0.167184 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5014194250106812, "model_output": 0.5014, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4268 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1918 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1222 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 } ], "others": -0.0873, "total": 0.5014, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.426829 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.19183 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.12222 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.049127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.040492 } ], "others_margin": -0.087294 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.618237495422363, "model_output": 6.6182, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0575, "total": 6.6182, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049579 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.049455 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.047378 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016557 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014283 } ], "others_margin": -0.057566 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0107, quality 0.555)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2351, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goals": 0.0494, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "shots_on_target": 0.1689, "total_shots": 0.5068, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 17.8, "total_pass": 2.4038, "accurate_pass": 1.9394, "duels_won": 0.4644, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4644, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "crosses_total": 0.5463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.911, "possession_lost": 3.9608, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 4.5072, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4644, "tackles": 0.4644, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.4751, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.4644, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0107, "total_progression": 4.2822, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3379 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12800000, "quality_factor": 0.5548, "boost_factor": 1.0107, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2351, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.0332, "assist_rate": 0.0332, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.5021, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 17.8, "total_pass": 2.4038, "accurate_pass": 1.9394, "duels_won": 0.4644, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4644, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "crosses_total": 0.5412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.911, "possession_lost": 3.9608, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 4.5072, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4662, "tackles": 0.4644, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.4751, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0107, "total_progression": 4.2822, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3379 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0093, "history_matches": 2, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1978, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.5463, "after": 0.5412 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.75, "projection_minutes": 17.8, "minutes_scale": 1.2781, "appearance_probability": 0.701 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.701 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0515, "after": 0.0324 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0271, "after": 0.0171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4898, "fifa_rank": 5008.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "scorer_weight": 0.0359, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0293, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "appearance_weight": 0.701, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "provider_weight": 0.0205, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0285, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "appearance_weight": 0.701, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "player_id": 845286, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0158, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8981, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1082, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8125, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5391, "expected_assists": 0.137, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5195, "expected_assists": 0.1207, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025034, "match_date": "2026-04-20", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023999, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0718, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1187, "combined_rank_score": 523.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 542.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.825, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6438, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Abduganiev", "ranking": 1182 }, { "player_name": "Pijus Širvys", "ranking": 1183 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Thill", "ranking": 1184 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Calero", "ranking": 1185 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.710848356448757, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6232203798385798, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0125, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (30 historical appearances) to 26.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1378, "goals": 0.1841, "goal_rate": 0.1841, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.6376, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.3133, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7212, "accurate_pass": 4.0152, "duels_won": 0.2326, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6694, "crosses_total": 0.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.2548, "touches": 9.1143, "possession_lost": 3.2844, "dispossessed": 0.2958, "duels_lost": 1.6195, "aerial_lost": 0.9243, "total_contest": 0.2736, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5496, "challenges_lost": 0.1257, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1257, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1069, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1791, "xgot": 0.0282, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1107, "total_progression": 7.7924, "progressive_carries": 0.3394, "shots_off_target": 0.341 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.1051, "expectedGoals": 0.2809, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.6017, "accuratePass": 7.8991, "totalShots": 1.2466 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1378384530544281, "model_output": 0.1378, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": 0.0184, "total": 0.1378, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587162 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.126433 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.046328 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.044032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.040798 } ], "others_margin": 0.144066 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18409974873065948, "model_output": 0.1841, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0747 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.1841, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.457541 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.212338 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.066065 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.043303 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.04089 } ], "others_margin": -0.004544 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2965846359729767, "model_output": 0.2966, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2273 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0027, "total": 0.2966, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549462 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.089647 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065157 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.062229 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.038053 } ], "others_margin": 0.009111 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6375625729560852, "model_output": 0.6376, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5573 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1115 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0209, "total": 0.6376, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.111539 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.039019 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.025121 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.017564 } ], "others_margin": -0.020834 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.023504169657826424, "model_output": 0.0235, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.0235, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377277 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.111265 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.091226 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.089034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042128 } ], "others_margin": -0.294136 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.31330421566963196, "model_output": 0.3133, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2513 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.3133, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467087 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086349 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07972 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026241 } ], "others_margin": -0.05317 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6438164710998535, "model_output": 6.6438, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0556 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 6.6438, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055552 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.014433 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012197 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009089 } ], "others_margin": -0.04983 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1396, "goals": 0.1864, "goal_rate": 0.1864, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.6456, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3172, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7927, "accurate_pass": 4.0654, "duels_won": 0.2355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7028, "crosses_total": 0.5423, "crosses_accurate": 0.258, "touches": 9.2282, "possession_lost": 3.3255, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.6397, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.277, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.569, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1273, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1082, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1813, "xgot": 0.0286, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1371, "total_progression": 7.8898, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.3453 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1671, "goals": 0.2232, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.71, "projection_minutes": 22.31, "minutes_scale": 1.1973, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1671, "goals": 0.2232, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1671, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1671, "after": 0.0935 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0285, "after": 0.016 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1187, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "scorer_weight": 0.1169, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0953, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0158, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0158, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0128, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0178, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jean-Philippe Mateta": { "player_id": 848276, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 192, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1446, "goal_rate": 0.2675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 4.9028, "dispossessed": 0.7808, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4826, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6981, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3848, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.586, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0848, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2994, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025034, "match_date": "2026-04-20", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023999, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0812, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1063, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1324, "combined_rank_score": 575.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 644.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7469, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 506.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6414, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azzedine Ounahi", "ranking": 1319 }, { "player_name": "Noussair Mazraoui", "ranking": 1320 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Chamorro", "ranking": 1321 }, { "player_name": "Beka Mikeltadze", "ranking": 1322 }, { "player_name": "Fornals", "ranking": 1323 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Brahim", "ranking": 1325 }, { "player_name": "Diego Llorente", "ranking": 1326 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Mechele", "ranking": 1327 }, { "player_name": "De Frutos", "ranking": 1328 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rueda", "ranking": 1329 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.757, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37159379857936, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.356, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0081, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (33 historical appearances) to 26.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.36); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1265, "goals": 0.235, "goal_rate": 0.235, "shots_on_target": 0.4295, "total_shots": 0.9013, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.2969, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 23.27, "total_pass": 3.6921, "accurate_pass": 1.6887, "duels_won": 1.7023, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5532, "crosses_total": 0.5014, "crosses_accurate": 0.1877, "touches": 9.3549, "possession_lost": 4.2914, "dispossessed": 0.7745, "duels_lost": 3.0022, "aerial_lost": 1.6286, "total_contest": 0.1595, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3944, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5549, "fouls_drawn": 0.2939, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.098, "tackles_won": 0.0979, "tackles": 0.2335, "clearances": 0.2335, "blocks": 0.1356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1595, "xgot": 0.4224, "offsides": 0.0833, "ball_carries": 1.8415, "total_progression": 3.4431, "progressive_carries": 0.098, "shots_off_target": 0.4717 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.3347, "expectedGoals": 0.3397, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 2.9931, "accuratePass": 4.0781, "totalShots": 1.232 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12652644515037537, "model_output": 0.1265, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.086 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0042 } ], "others": 0.0096, "total": 0.1265, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.572072 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.107473 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.050974 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.045278 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.036279 } ], "others_margin": 0.079185 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.235041081905365, "model_output": 0.235, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0691 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0428, "total": 0.235, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.415068 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.176594 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.076401 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.055071 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.050514 } ], "others_margin": 0.201283 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4295156002044678, "model_output": 0.4295, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1984 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.061, "total": 0.4295, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.460387 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.062171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055843 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.040402 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.035902 } ], "others_margin": 0.153206 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9012583494186401, "model_output": 0.9013, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5318 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0905 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.028 } ], "others": 0.1149, "total": 0.9013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.531777 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090525 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.037132 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.030171 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027994 } ], "others_margin": 0.114766 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.019413011148571968, "model_output": 0.0194, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0194, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.368414 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.186799 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.10068 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.086921 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.084375 } ], "others_margin": -0.369114 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2968800663948059, "model_output": 0.2969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.244 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0422, "total": 0.2969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.450005 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076736 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06931 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053985 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.036352 } ], "others_margin": -0.132577 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.641444206237793, "model_output": 6.6414, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0527 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0796, "total": 6.6414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05274 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.017943 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.017417 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.017223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011354 } ], "others_margin": -0.079601 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1276, "goals": 0.2369, "goal_rate": 0.2369, "shots_on_target": 0.433, "total_shots": 0.9086, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.2993, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 23.27, "total_pass": 3.722, "accurate_pass": 1.7024, "duels_won": 1.7161, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5658, "crosses_total": 0.5055, "crosses_accurate": 0.1892, "touches": 9.4307, "possession_lost": 4.3262, "dispossessed": 0.7808, "duels_lost": 3.0265, "aerial_lost": 1.6418, "total_contest": 0.1608, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3976, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5594, "fouls_drawn": 0.2963, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0988, "tackles_won": 0.0987, "tackles": 0.2354, "clearances": 0.2354, "blocks": 0.1367, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1608, "xgot": 0.4258, "offsides": 0.084, "ball_carries": 1.8564, "total_progression": 3.471, "progressive_carries": 0.0988, "shots_off_target": 0.4755 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0040)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1276, "goals": 0.236, "goal_rate": 0.236, "shots_on_target": 0.4313, "total_shots": 0.908, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.2993, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 23.27, "total_pass": 3.722, "accurate_pass": 1.7024, "duels_won": 1.7161, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5658, "crosses_total": 0.5035, "crosses_accurate": 0.1892, "touches": 9.4307, "possession_lost": 4.3262, "dispossessed": 0.7808, "duels_lost": 3.0265, "aerial_lost": 1.6418, "total_contest": 0.1608, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3976, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5601, "fouls_drawn": 0.2951, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0984, "tackles_won": 0.0983, "tackles": 0.2354, "clearances": 0.2354, "blocks": 0.1367, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1608, "xgot": 0.4258, "offsides": 0.0837, "ball_carries": 1.8564, "total_progression": 3.471, "progressive_carries": 0.0988, "shots_off_target": 0.4755 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.004, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2586, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1446, "goals": 0.2675, "goal_rate": 0.2675, "shots_on_target": 0.4888, "total_shots": 1.029, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3392, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 4.2181, "accurate_pass": 1.9293, "duels_won": 1.9448, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7745, "crosses_total": 0.5706, "crosses_accurate": 0.2144, "touches": 10.6877, "possession_lost": 4.9028, "dispossessed": 0.7808, "duels_lost": 3.4299, "aerial_lost": 1.6418, "total_contest": 0.1822, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4506, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.3344, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1115, "tackles_won": 0.1114, "tackles": 0.2668, "clearances": 0.2668, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1822, "xgot": 0.4826, "offsides": 0.0837, "ball_carries": 2.1038, "total_progression": 3.9336, "progressive_carries": 0.112, "shots_off_target": 0.5389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 23.27, "minutes_scale": 1.1333, "appearance_probability": 0.356 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1446, "goals": 0.2675, "goal_rate": 0.2675, "shots_on_target": 0.4888, "total_shots": 1.029, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3392, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 4.2181, "accurate_pass": 1.9293, "duels_won": 1.9448, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7745, "crosses_total": 0.5706, "crosses_accurate": 0.2144, "touches": 10.6877, "possession_lost": 4.9028, "dispossessed": 0.7808, "duels_lost": 3.4299, "aerial_lost": 1.6418, "total_contest": 0.1822, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4506, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.3344, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1115, "tackles_won": 0.1114, "tackles": 0.2668, "clearances": 0.2668, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1822, "xgot": 0.4826, "offsides": 0.0837, "ball_carries": 2.1038, "total_progression": 3.9336, "progressive_carries": 0.112, "shots_off_target": 0.5389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1446, "goal_rate": 0.2675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4888, "total_shots": 1.029, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3392, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 4.2181, "accurate_pass": 1.9293, "duels_won": 1.9448, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7745, "crosses_total": 0.5706, "crosses_accurate": 0.2144, "touches": 10.6877, "possession_lost": 4.9028, "dispossessed": 0.7808, "duels_lost": 3.4299, "aerial_lost": 1.6418, "total_contest": 0.1822, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4506, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.3344, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1115, "tackles_won": 0.1114, "tackles": 0.2668, "clearances": 0.2668, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1822, "xgot": 0.4826, "offsides": 0.0837, "ball_carries": 2.1038, "total_progression": 3.9336, "progressive_carries": 0.112, "shots_off_target": 0.5389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.356, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1446, "goal_rate": 0.2675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4888, "total_shots": 1.029, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3392, "rating": 6.6414, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 4.2181, "accurate_pass": 1.9293, "duels_won": 1.9448, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7745, "crosses_total": 0.5706, "crosses_accurate": 0.2144, "touches": 10.6877, "possession_lost": 4.9028, "dispossessed": 0.7808, "duels_lost": 3.4299, "aerial_lost": 1.6418, "total_contest": 0.1822, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4506, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.3344, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1115, "tackles_won": 0.1114, "tackles": 0.2668, "clearances": 0.2668, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1822, "xgot": 0.4826, "offsides": 0.0837, "ball_carries": 2.1038, "total_progression": 3.9336, "progressive_carries": 0.112, "shots_off_target": 0.5389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1324, "fifa_rank": 506.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Óscar Mingueza": { "player_id": 859773, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 184, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083248, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3524, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083123, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2694, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 896, "combined_rank_score": 419.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 419.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9242, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7267, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 }, { "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking": 893 }, { "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking": 894 }, { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Moleiro", "ranking": 897 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Hormazábal", "ranking": 898 }, { "player_name": "Do-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 899 }, { "player_name": "Jorge de Frutos", "ranking": 900 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Silva", "ranking": 901 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.707, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0041, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (36 historical appearances) to 19.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 16.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4234, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0406, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goals": 0.0278, "goal_rate": 0.0278, "shots_on_target": 0.0783, "total_shots": 0.2908, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6343, "accurate_pass": 11.4926, "duels_won": 1.2614, "total_long_balls": 1.0371, "accurate_long_balls": 0.373, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.71, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7827, "crosses_total": 1.1259, "crosses_accurate": 0.1877, "touches": 20.2978, "possession_lost": 4.2571, "dispossessed": 0.147, "duels_lost": 1.2482, "aerial_won": 0.1243, "aerial_lost": 0.2223, "interceptions": 0.0169, "tackles_won": 0.5856, "tackles": 0.8784, "clearances": 0.3482, "total_contest": 0.2031, "won_contest": 0.1027, "challenges_lost": 0.4485, "fouls": 0.33, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.0881, "big_chances_created": 0.1385, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 15.58, "progressive_carries": 0.3598, "shots_off_target": 0.2125 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0647, "creative_index": 0.2836, "expectedGoals": 0.0016, "expectedAssists": 0.0715, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0303 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.42344287037849426, "model_output": 0.4234, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.424 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0272, "total": 0.4234, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.643997 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.07552 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.030807 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028951 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024447 } ], "others_margin": -0.06194 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.039081037044525146, "model_output": 0.0391, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0011 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 0.0391, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604975 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.071086 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.044872 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027913 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025968 } ], "others_margin": -0.061639 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.040632978081703186, "model_output": 0.0406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.308566 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.113835 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.104272 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.072139 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.06103 } ], "others_margin": -0.226321 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.025676172226667404, "model_output": 0.0257, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0012 } ], "others": -0.0003, "total": 0.0257, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.497296 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.42231 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.224577 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.098144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043186 } ], "others_margin": -0.015353 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.02784869074821472, "model_output": 0.0278, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.0278, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.516459 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.244104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.17861 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093203 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.07366 } ], "others_margin": -0.149986 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07834213227033615, "model_output": 0.0783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1566 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0157, "total": 0.0783, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.655683 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.326791 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.275284 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.136979 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.123074 } ], "others_margin": -0.181129 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2908128798007965, "model_output": 0.2908, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3371 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2532 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0368 } ], "others": -0.0657, "total": 0.2908, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.253172 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050516 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.038593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036837 } ], "others_margin": -0.065721 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.726696014404297, "model_output": 6.7267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0925 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 6.7267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092518 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.022019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013277 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011193 } ], "others_margin": 0.011658 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4252, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0787, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1305, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.588, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3314, "fouls_drawn": 0.1566, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2134 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4252, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0786, "total_shots": 0.2918, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1293, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3311, "fouls_drawn": 0.1564, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2134 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.198, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.01, "projection_minutes": 17.82, "minutes_scale": 1.0668, "appearance_probability": 0.707 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0435, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.707 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0275, "after": 0.0175 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0418, "after": 0.0266 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 896, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "scorer_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4536, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.3115, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2277, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.031, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0435, "provider_weight": 0.0271, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0377, "creation_factor": 1.0185, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Zavier Gozo": { "player_id": 1578999, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 180, "market_value": 12800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4898, "combined_rank_score": 2992.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 976.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5008.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6182, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zavier Gozo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jesús Ramírez", "ranking": 4893 }, { "player_name": "Bright Arrey-Mbi", "ranking": 4894 }, { "player_name": "Damián Rodríguez", "ranking": 4895 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio De Arruabarrena", "ranking": 4896 }, { "player_name": "Anzor Mekvabishvili", "ranking": 4897 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jean Baptiste Gorby", "ranking": 4899 }, { "player_name": "Gabri Martínez", "ranking": 4900 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Silva", "ranking": 4901 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Aranda", "ranking": 4902 }, { "player_name": "Ryunosuke Sato", "ranking": 4903 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.378, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.378, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.701, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0107, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 23.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (2 historical appearances) to 22.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 23.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2326, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0331, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1671, "total_shots": 0.5014, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 17.8, "total_pass": 2.3784, "accurate_pass": 1.9189, "duels_won": 0.4595, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9189, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4595, "crosses_total": 0.5405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.8378, "possession_lost": 3.9189, "dispossessed": 0.4595, "duels_lost": 4.4595, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0811, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4595, "tackles": 0.4595, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.4595, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0, "total_progression": 4.2369, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3343 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:05:52.581708+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 895, "rows": 24017 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.0003, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0006, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.23260237276554108, "model_output": 0.2326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.16 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1359 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0278 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.893, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4539 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0581 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.02 } ], "others": -0.0698, "total": 0.2326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.113189, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.709826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.141807 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.100415 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.066512 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.06402 } ], "others_margin": -0.262656 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.021013788878917694, "model_output": 0.021, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0542 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 0.021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.457601, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589327 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.264394 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.114749 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.086347 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.071624 } ], "others_margin": -0.278535 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.033102646470069885, "model_output": 0.0331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 0.0331, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439072, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338946 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.249002 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.132014 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.10639 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.095784 } ], "others_margin": -0.238502 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03983340412378311, "model_output": 0.0398, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0755 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0372 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0272 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0943, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.0398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.361326, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.379646 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.178443 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.156048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.106964 } ], "others_margin": 0.026653 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04891044273972511, "model_output": 0.0489, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.0489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.324947, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444538 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.225291 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.218146 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.10419 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.077083 } ], "others_margin": 0.168052 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.16709981858730316, "model_output": 0.1671, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3257, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.15 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0257, "total": 0.1671, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.121688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.617372 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.293264 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.209752 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.169041 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.116687 } ], "others_margin": 0.167184 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5014194250106812, "model_output": 0.5014, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1272 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0242 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4268 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1918 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1222 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 } ], "others": -0.0873, "total": 0.5014, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.995535, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.426829 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.19183 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.12222 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.049127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.040492 } ], "others_margin": -0.087294 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.618237495422363, "model_output": 6.6182, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8531, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0575, "total": 6.6182, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.853057, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049579 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.049455 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.047378 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016557 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014283 } ], "others_margin": -0.057566 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0107, quality 0.555)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2351, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goals": 0.0494, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "shots_on_target": 0.1689, "total_shots": 0.5068, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 17.8, "total_pass": 2.4038, "accurate_pass": 1.9394, "duels_won": 0.4644, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4644, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "crosses_total": 0.5463, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.911, "possession_lost": 3.9608, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 4.5072, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4644, "tackles": 0.4644, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.4751, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.4644, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0107, "total_progression": 4.2822, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3379 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12800000, "quality_factor": 0.5548, "boost_factor": 1.0107, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2351, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.0332, "assist_rate": 0.0332, "expected_goals": 0.0403, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.5021, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 17.8, "total_pass": 2.4038, "accurate_pass": 1.9394, "duels_won": 0.4644, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4644, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4751, "crosses_total": 0.5412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.911, "possession_lost": 3.9608, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 4.5072, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4662, "tackles": 0.4644, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.4751, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0107, "total_progression": 4.2822, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3379 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0093, "history_matches": 2, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1978, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.5463, "after": 0.5412 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.75, "projection_minutes": 17.8, "minutes_scale": 1.2781, "appearance_probability": 0.701 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.701 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0515, "after": 0.0324 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0271, "after": 0.0171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4898, "fifa_rank": 5008.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "scorer_weight": 0.0359, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0293, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "appearance_weight": 0.701, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3005, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2138, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.6182, "minutes": 22.75, "total_pass": 3.0723, "accurate_pass": 2.4787, "duels_won": 0.5935, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5935, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.6917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8329, "possession_lost": 5.0623, "dispossessed": 0.4644, "duels_lost": 5.7606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0927, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5935, "tackles": 0.5935, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8853, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0107, "fouls": 0.5958, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2918, "total_progression": 5.473, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4319, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.75, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0317, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.1084, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "provider_weight": 0.0205, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0285, "creation_factor": 1.1984, "appearance_weight": 0.701, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "player_id": 845286, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0158, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8981, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1082, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8125, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5391, "expected_assists": 0.137, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5195, "expected_assists": 0.1207, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025034, "match_date": "2026-04-20", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023999, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0718, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1187, "combined_rank_score": 523.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 542.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.825, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6438, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Abduganiev", "ranking": 1182 }, { "player_name": "Pijus Širvys", "ranking": 1183 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Thill", "ranking": 1184 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Calero", "ranking": 1185 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.710848356448757, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6232203798385798, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0125, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (30 historical appearances) to 26.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1378, "goals": 0.1841, "goal_rate": 0.1841, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.6376, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.3133, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7212, "accurate_pass": 4.0152, "duels_won": 0.2326, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6694, "crosses_total": 0.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.2548, "touches": 9.1143, "possession_lost": 3.2844, "dispossessed": 0.2958, "duels_lost": 1.6195, "aerial_lost": 0.9243, "total_contest": 0.2736, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5496, "challenges_lost": 0.1257, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1257, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1069, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1791, "xgot": 0.0282, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1107, "total_progression": 7.7924, "progressive_carries": 0.3394, "shots_off_target": 0.341 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-17T10:06:24.593912+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1369, "players": 607, "rows": 16160 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.1051, "expectedGoals": 0.2809, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.6017, "accuratePass": 7.8991, "totalShots": 1.2466 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1378384530544281, "model_output": 0.1378, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.08 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1975, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": 0.0184, "total": 0.1378, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.621917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587162 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.126433 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.046328 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.044032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.040798 } ], "others_margin": 0.144066 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18409974873065948, "model_output": 0.1841, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0774 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0262 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0747 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.1841, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.59279, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.457541 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.212338 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.066065 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.043303 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.04089 } ], "others_margin": -0.004544 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2965846359729767, "model_output": 0.2966, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5376, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2273 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0027, "total": 0.2966, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.620549, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549462 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.089647 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065157 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.062229 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.038053 } ], "others_margin": 0.009111 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6375625729560852, "model_output": 0.6376, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3738, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5573 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1115 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0209, "total": 0.6376, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.37384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.111539 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.039019 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.025121 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.017564 } ], "others_margin": -0.020834 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.023504169657826424, "model_output": 0.0235, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0576 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0642, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.0235, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.745511, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377277 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.111265 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.091226 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.089034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042128 } ], "others_margin": -0.294136 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.31330421566963196, "model_output": 0.3133, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0346 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6734, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2513 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.3133, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.395462, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467087 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086349 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07972 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026241 } ], "others_margin": -0.05317 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6438164710998535, "model_output": 6.6438, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0487 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0414 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.767, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0556 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 6.6438, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.767002, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055552 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.014433 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012197 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009089 } ], "others_margin": -0.04983 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1396, "goals": 0.1864, "goal_rate": 0.1864, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.6456, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3172, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7927, "accurate_pass": 4.0654, "duels_won": 0.2355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7028, "crosses_total": 0.5423, "crosses_accurate": 0.258, "touches": 9.2282, "possession_lost": 3.3255, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.6397, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.277, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.569, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1273, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1082, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1813, "xgot": 0.0286, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1371, "total_progression": 7.8898, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.3453 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1671, "goals": 0.2232, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.71, "projection_minutes": 22.31, "minutes_scale": 1.1973, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1671, "goals": 0.2232, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1671, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.3534, xG scale 0.8984, xA scale 0.8984, team xA 0.81 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.216, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3534, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8965, "team_expected_assists": 0.8055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6624, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8984, "xa_scale": 0.8984, "opponent_lambda": 1.43, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1671, "after": 0.0935 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0285, "after": 0.016 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1187, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "scorer_weight": 0.1169, "squad_weight_total": 1.2267, "weight_share": 0.0953, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.2901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2901, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1568 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.2232, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "total_shots": 0.773, "expected_assists": 0.016, "key_pass": 0.3798, "rating": 6.6438, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.4134, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.748, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0868, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0158, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0158, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0128, "squad_weight_total": 0.7186, "weight_share": 0.0178, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.12, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.12, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0957, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.22, "expected_assists": 0.81, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 414, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pascal Groß", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.1364, "xg_multiplier": 0.7229, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pascal Groß (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €32M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chema Andrés", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.881, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "xg_contribution": 0.0891, "xg_multiplier": 0.9209, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 79000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chema Andrés (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €79M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.705, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "xg_contribution": 0.2502, "xg_multiplier": 1.0009, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) is evenly matched against Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.250 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.3663, "xg_multiplier": 1.0602, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 }, { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jørgen Strand Larsen (SS) is slightly favored against Yasin Ayari and Ferdi Kadıoğlu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.366 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yéremy Pino", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "xg_contribution": 0.1427, "xg_multiplier": 0.9053, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.794 }, { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.794 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yéremy Pino (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Yasin Ayari and Ferdi Kadıoğlu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyrick Mitchell", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Olivier Boscagli" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0828, "xg_multiplier": 0.9909, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Olivier Boscagli", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrick Mitchell (LWB) is evenly matched against Olivier Boscagli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Quinten Timber", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Maxim De Cuyper" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "xg_contribution": 0.1095, "xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "role": "LB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642 } ], "duel_analysis": "Quinten Timber (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Maxim De Cuyper in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.110 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "xg_contribution": 0.0853, "xg_multiplier": 1.1051, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.478 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is slightly favored against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €41M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anan Khalaili", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.1221, "xg_multiplier": 0.9811, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anan Khalaili (CM) is evenly matched against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €41M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "xg_contribution": 0.0766, "xg_multiplier": 0.8864, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €41M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jefferson Lerma", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.468, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "xg_contribution": 0.0856, "xg_multiplier": 0.815, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.676 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jefferson Lerma (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €41M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.679, "away_midfield_power": 0.72, "home_creative_power": 0.577, "away_creative_power": 0.619, "home_defensive_power": 0.69, "away_defensive_power": 0.628, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.485, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Diego Gómez", "Chema Andrés", "Pascal Groß" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Daichi Kamada", "Tyrick Mitchell", "Adam Wharton", "Quinten Timber", "Anan Khalaili", "Jefferson Lerma" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Yasin Ayari vs Adam Wharton", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.994, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.999 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.43, "away_lambda": 1.216, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Pascal Groß": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chema Andrés": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Yéremy Pino", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili", "Daichi Kamada", "Jefferson Lerma", "Quinten Timber" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Olivier Boscagli": { "opponents": [ "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maxim De Cuyper": { "opponents": [ "Quinten Timber" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lewis Dunk": { "opponents": [ "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "Pascal Groß", "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Chema Andrés", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yéremy Pino": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Olivier Boscagli", "Chema Andrés" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Quinten Timber": { "opponents": [ "Maxim De Cuyper", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jefferson Lerma": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Walter Benítez": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 1.07. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.107, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1621, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9304, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9087, "home_midfield_factor": 0.994, "away_midfield_factor": 0.999, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6837, "away_avg_quality": 0.6761, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0075, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0378, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0979, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.4771, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0203, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4757, "n_duels": 3, "duel_confidence": 0.59, "result": 0.8752 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.994, "result": 0.8699 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 0.9134 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.0504 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1867, "result": 1.2465 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.2554 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9304, "result": 1.168 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.107, "result": 1.275 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.275, "result": 1.275, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0203, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.275, "result": 1.275 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.275 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1648, "result": 1.4398 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.4398 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4398, "result": 1.44, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.44, "result": 1.4298, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.43 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.43 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.43, "result": 1.43, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.43 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0709, "n_duels": 8, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1657 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.999, "result": 1.1645 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.1063 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1063 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9363, "result": 1.0358 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8767, "result": 0.9081 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9087, "result": 0.8252 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1621, "result": 0.9874 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9874, "result": 0.9874, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0203, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9874, "result": 0.9874 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9874 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.207 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.207 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.207, "result": 1.207, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.207, "result": 1.2156, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.216 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.216 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.216, "result": 1.216, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.216 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1648, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.43, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.216, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4398, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.207, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.43, "final_away_lambda": 1.216 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1867, "attack_index": 1.345, "defense_concede_index": 1.119, "form_multiplier": 1.028, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.98, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.65, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9363, "attack_index": 1.006, "defense_concede_index": 0.855, "form_multiplier": 0.972, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.48, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.26, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Brighton vs Crystal Palace. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.440, Away 1.207). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.430, Away 1.216 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.43, "away_lambda": 1.216, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.44, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.207 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:34:17Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }